Driven by an increase in wholesale natural gas prices, retail U.S. natural gas prices for every sector have increased so far this year, although the increases are uneven across sectors. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the 2025 annual average price of natural gas paid by electric power plants to increase by 37% and the price paid by industrial sector customers to increase by 21% compared with the 2024 averages. We forecast that natural gas prices for customers in the commercial and residential sectors will increase by less, at 4% each.

In the third quarter of 2025, solar projects representing about 20% of planned capacity reported a delay, a decrease from 25% in the same period in 2024, based on data compiled from multiple Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory reports.

The United States produced 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, 75% more than the world's second-largest natural gas producer, Russia, in 2023, the most recent year for which we have comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production.

As U.S. crude oil and natural gas production have increased, so has the volume of production declines from existing wells. To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels.

When the International Maritime Organization's lower marine sulfur limit known as IMO 2020 took effect in January 2020, commercial shippers pivoted sharply to fueling their vessels with low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO). In the years since, high-sulfur fuel oil has reclaimed some market share, as a growing number of commercial vessels install sulfur scrubbers that allow operators to use the heavier, cheaper fuel oils while complying with the new sulfur emission limits.

According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in September, the United States exported 46.8 million short tons (MMst) of coal in the first half of 2025 (1H25), an 11% decline from 1H24.

Companies operating in Brazil have expanded the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification infrastructure since 2020, more than doubling its import capacity as the country seeks to diversify its energy supply and enhance energy security. Brazil's regasification capacity grew from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 to 5.1 Bcf/d in August 2025.

The pace of capacity additions for U.S. biofuel production slowed in 2024, with production capacity increasing by a modest 3% from the start of 2024 to the start of 2025, according to our latest biofuels production capacity reports. A deceleration in production capacity in our category renewable diesel and other biofuels accounted for most of slowdown in growth. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable naphtha, and renewable propane make up virtually all of the other biofuels.

Since 2021, electricity demand within the Texas electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has steadily increased. In the first nine months of 2025, electricity demand in ERCOT, which manages about 90% of the state's load, reached a record high compared with the same period in previous years. Over those same months, ERCOT had the fastest electricity demand growth among U.S. electricity grids between 2024 and 2025. From January through September 2025, demand for electric power in ERCOT increased 5% compared with the same period in 2024 to 372 terawatthours (TWh), 23% more than the same months in 2021. Since 2023, wind and solar generation, especially utility-scale solar, have been the fastest-growing sources of electricity in ERCOT and are increasingly meeting rising demand.

The United States is on track to export a record amount of fuel ethanol for the second year in a row in 2025, driven by growing international demand. This growing market for exports is supporting increased U.S. fuel ethanol production, even as domestic consumption stagnates.

U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 7.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in May 2025, the most of any month on record as Mexico's demand for natural gas, particularly in the electric power sector, increases. On an annual basis, U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.4 Bcf/d in 2024, a 25% increase compared with 2019 and the highest on record in data going back as early as 1975.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters in the United States have announced plans to more than double U.S. liquefaction capacity, adding an estimated 13.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) between 2025 and 2029, according to our Liquefaction Capacity File and trade press reports. The United States is already the largest exporter in the world with 15.4 Bcf/d of capacity.

We expect energy expenditures this winter will vary based on a home's main space heating fuel: homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more than they did last winter. Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.

U.S. ethane exports are poised for significant growth through 2026, driven by robust global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, substantial U.S. export capacity expansions, and larger vessels to carry ethane exports. In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. ethane net exports will grow 14% in 2025, followed by a 16% rise in 2026. The United States does not import ethane.

An increasing share of U.S. households are using electricity for heating, although natural gas remains the most common heating fuel. In 2024, 42% of U.S. households reported that electricity was their main space heating fuel, according to annual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Natural gas was the main heating fuel in 47% of homes last year, a decline from 49% in 2010.

We estimate crude oil inventories in China increased by about 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) between January and August this year, essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global markets. The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure we would otherwise expect to see with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around $68 per barrel (b) in the second and third quarters of 2025.

The United States is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. For the week ending September 26, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year, based on data in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), ending the quarter just 9 cents per barrel (b) less than they started, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 3Q25, covering crude oil prices and refinery margins.

The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was estimated to be $57 billion in 2024, down from nearly $72 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A combination of lower petroleum output from Mexico and lower fuel prices, particularly for petroleum products that make up the bulk of the cross-border energy trade between the two countries, drove most of the decrease.

In 2023, Texas consumed more energy than any other state. Total energy consumption in Texas was twice as much as in California, the second-highest consuming state, and more than three times as much as in Florida, the third-highest consuming state, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). U.S. total energy use peaked in 2007, and between 2007 and 2023, Texas's energy consumption increased 21%, while U.S. energy use decreased 5%. According to our SEDS data, most of the energy consumption growth in Texas is attributable to increased industrial activity, population, and electricity demand.