We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.

Critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and silicon, are vital for energy technologies, but most critical minerals markets are less transparent than mature energy markets, such as crude oil or coal. Like other energy markets, many supply-side and demand-side factors influence pricing for these energy-relevant critical minerals, but critical minerals supply chains contain numerous data gaps.

Higher average daily wholesale electricity prices between January and November 2025 may be improving the operational competitiveness of some natural gas- and coal-fired generators in the PJM Interconnection compared with the same period in 2024. PJM is the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. The spark and dark spreads, common metrics for estimating the profitability of natural gas- and coal-fired electric generators, have both increased over the past two years.

On December 1, 2025, the U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline fell below $3.00 per gallon (gal) to $2.98/gal, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. When adjusted for inflation, the December 1 price is the lowest average U.S. gasoline price since February 2021.

Global refinery margins for diesel have widened since late October and increased to their highest level all year, following refinery outages in Russia and in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russia's crude oil, leading to limited refinery production and a decreased global diesel supply. The impact was most pronounced in the Atlantic Basin, contributing to higher prices at the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp (ARA) shipping hub, a key benchmark for European prices, as well as at New York Harbor and the U.S. Gulf Coast. The higher global prices also affected prices in the United States because U.S. refiners can sell into both domestic and international markets.

U.S. electricity customers experienced an average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions in 2024, or nearly twice as many as the annual average experienced in the decade before, according to our Electric Power Annual 2024 report. Major events such as Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton accounted for 80% of the hours without electricity in 2024.

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

On the Monday before Thanksgiving, the U.S. retail price for regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.06 per gallon (gal), just 2 cents/gal higher than the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation, however, this year marks the lowest average gasoline price for the Monday before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend since 2020, when the pandemic disrupted gasoline demand and travel plans.

Although natural gas generation still provides more electricity than any other source in California, electricity generation from natural gas has decreased over the past several years while generation from solar has increased.

U.S. production of associated dissolved natural gas, also known as associated natural gas, increased by 6% last year, mirroring the growth in crude oil production from the Permian region. Associated natural gas production averaged 18.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, according to data from Enverus DrillingInfo.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil produced from Alaska will reach 477,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, the most since 2018.

The average number of active rigs per month that are drilling for oil and natural gas in the U.S. Lower 48 states has declined steadily over the past few years from a recent peak of 750 rigs in December 2022 to 517 rigs this October. The declining rig count reflects operators' responses to declining crude oil and natural gas prices and improvements in drilling efficiencies.

Working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states ended the natural gas refill season (April 1-October 31) with more than 3,900 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to estimates based on data from our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on November 6. U.S. inventories are starting winter 2025-26 at about the same level as last year, the most since 2016. As of October 31, inventories are 4% above the five-year (2020-24) average after above-average injections into storage throughout much of the injection season.

Driven by an increase in wholesale natural gas prices, retail U.S. natural gas prices for every sector have increased so far this year, although the increases are uneven across sectors. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the 2025 annual average price of natural gas paid by electric power plants to increase by 37% and the price paid by industrial sector customers to increase by 21% compared with the 2024 averages. We forecast that natural gas prices for customers in the commercial and residential sectors will increase by less, at 4% each.

In the third quarter of 2025, solar projects representing about 20% of planned capacity reported a delay, a decrease from 25% in the same period in 2024, based on data compiled from multiple Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory reports.

The United States produced 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, 75% more than the world's second-largest natural gas producer, Russia, in 2023, the most recent year for which we have comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production.

As U.S. crude oil and natural gas production have increased, so has the volume of production declines from existing wells. To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels.

When the International Maritime Organization's lower marine sulfur limit known as IMO 2020 took effect in January 2020, commercial shippers pivoted sharply to fueling their vessels with low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO). In the years since, high-sulfur fuel oil has reclaimed some market share, as a growing number of commercial vessels install sulfur scrubbers that allow operators to use the heavier, cheaper fuel oils while complying with the new sulfur emission limits.