Electricity generators plan to retire 12.3 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2025, a 65% increase in retirements compared with 2024. Last year, 7.5 GW was retired from the U.S. power grid, the least generation retired since 2011, according to data reported to us in our latest inventory of electric generators. Coal generating capacity accounts for the largest share of planned capacity retirements (66%), followed by natural gas (21%).

We expect 63 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric-generating capacity to be added to the U.S. power grid in 2025 in our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory report. This amount represents an almost 30% increase from 2024 when 48.6 GW of capacity was installed, the largest capacity installation in a single year since 2002. Together, solar and battery storage account for 81% of the expected total capacity additions, with solar making up over 50% of the increase.

As of January 1, 2025, state taxes and fees on gasoline and diesel fuel averaged $0.33 per gallon (gal) of gasoline and $0.35/gal of diesel fuel, according to our table on federal and state motor fuel taxes.

Renewable diesel is increasingly replacing petroleum diesel on the U.S. West Coast, where state-level policies are attracting new production capacity and shipments to the region. The fuel continues to mostly be consumed in California but is also making up a substantial share of Oregon's and Washington's smaller distillate pools, according to quarterly data published by California, Oregon, and Washington.

We forecast that worldwide production of petroleum and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries than in OPEC+ countries in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We estimate that total world petroleum and other liquids supply increased by about 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. Increasing crude oil production from four countries in the Americas—the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil—drives this growth. Because of ongoing production restraint among OPEC+ countries, we forecast the group's production to grow by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026.

We released new data on the U.S. electric power sector's coal transportation costs. The release incorporates final data for 2023 from Form EIA-923, which we collect from electric power plant owners and operators. The data release based on our Form EIA-923 includes tables with costs, in nominal and real (2023) dollars, across regions, states, and modes of transportation. These transportation rates are calculated as a weighted average of the difference between the commodity cost and total delivered cost of coal shipments to plants in the electric power sector. In addition, the rates are based on the primary transport mode that a plant's owner or operator selects, but they may include other secondary or tertiary modes.

Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China's refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.

Colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the United States in mid-January increased natural gas consumption, resulting in the fourth-largest reported weekly withdrawal from natural gas storage in the Lower 48 states, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). During the week ending January 24, 2025, stocks fell by 321 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which was nearly 70% more than the five-year (2020–24) average withdrawal for the same week in January. With withdrawals in January totaling nearly 1,000 Bcf, U.S. natural gas inventories are now 4% below their previous five-year average after being 6% above the five-year average at the start of the 2024-25 heating season, which began in November.

Natural gas-fired generating plants in the United States can be categorized by different ownership type, which can influence where individual plants are located, as well as how they operate and even the way fuel is purchased. Those different owners, through the investments they have made, have been instrumental in making natural gas the single-largest source used to generate electricity in the United States, with a 43% share of both capacity and energy output. EIA collects data for the different ownership types of natural gas-fired power plants.

Below average temperatures in the eastern United States during the week of January 19, 2025, resulted in high demand for electricity. On January 21 at 6:00 p.m. eastern time, ISO-New England (ISO-NE), the organization operating an integrated grid in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, recorded peak hourly demand of 19,600 megawatts (MW). Although demand was elevated, it was lower than the 20,308 MW that ISO-NE forecast peak demand would be in its 2024/2025 winter assessment published on November 7, 2024. Temperatures were more moderate in New England than in the Midwest, which tempered electricity demand somewhat in New England.

Gross U.S. coal exports in June 2024 totaled 10 million short tons, the most in a month since October 2018, data from our Short-Term Energy Outlook data browser show. Annual average U.S. coal exports were 9.0 million short tons in 2024. U.S. coal exports have increased each year since 2020, when they averaged 5.8 million short tons amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Average natural gas spot prices at most major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states declined in 2024 compared with 2023 in real terms, according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence.

In 2023, U.S. nuclear generators used 32 million pounds of imported uranium concentrate (U3O8) and only 0.05 million pounds of domestically produced U3O8. Imports accounted for 99% of the U3O8 they used in 2023 to make nuclear fuel. Foreign producers predominantly supply the U.S. front-end nuclear fuel cycle, but federal policies have been implemented recently to build out the domestic U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently received $2.7 billion in congressional funding to help revive domestic fuel production for commercial nuclear power plants.

Natural gas-fired electric power generation has increased in Pennsylvania since 2013 as the state has shifted toward natural gas as its main fuel source for electric power generation. In October 2024, natural gas-fired generation accounted for 57% of the electricity generated in Pennsylvania, more than twice the share in October 2013 (26%). Over the past decade, natural gas has become the primary fuel source for electricity generation in the state, surpassing coal-fired generation in 2016 on an annual basis and nuclear-powered generation in 2019. Natural gas-fired generation reached an all-time monthly peak in Pennsylvania of 15.3 million megawatthours (MWh) in July 2024, as hourly electricity demand peaked across multiple regions of the Lower 48 states due to widespread heatwaves.

U.S. wholesale and retail propane prices have been higher so far this winter heating season (October–March) than during the same period a year ago, largely because of colder weather in January and higher exports, according to data from our State Heating Oil and Propane Program. Prices have been higher despite relatively strong propane inventories heading into this winter heating season.

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect that U.S. wholesale power prices will average slightly higher in 2025 in most U.S. regions than last year, except in Texas and in the Northwest. We forecast that the 11 wholesale prices we track in STEO will average $40 per megawatthour (MWh) in 2025 (weighted by demand), up 7% from 2024. We expect the 2025 average U.S. residential electricity price will be 2% higher than the 2024 average, though after accounting for inflation, our forecast for U.S. residential prices remains relatively unchanged from 2024.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect that U.S. renewable capacity additions�especially solar�will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years. We expect U.S. utilities and independent power producers will add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity to the electric power sector, almost double 2023 solar capacity additions. We forecast wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, slight increases from the 7 GW added in 2024.

We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower crude oil prices on gasoline prices.

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.