In our Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025), we project U.S. production growth of crude oil and natural gas remains relatively high through 2030 due to increasing U.S. exports of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as U.S. energy exports continue to be economical for international consumers.

California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity over the next 12 months because of two planned refinery closures. If realized, the closure of the facilities is likely to contribute to increases in fuel price volatility on the West Coast.

In 2024, the United States imported about 17% of its domestic energy supply, half of the record share set in 2006 and the lowest share since 1985, according to our Monthly Energy Review. The decline in imports' share of supply in the previous two decades is attributable to both an increase in domestic energy production and a decrease in energy imports since 2006.

In 2024, the United States consumed about 94 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of energy, a 1% increase from 2023, according to our Monthly Energy Review. Fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—accounted for 82% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2024. Nonfossil fuel energy—from renewables and nuclear energy—accounted for the other 18%. Petroleum remained the most-consumed fuel in the United States, as it has been for the past 75 years, and nuclear energy consumption exceeded coal consumption for the first time ever.

According to our latest annual Refinery Capacity Report, U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the primary measure of refinery capacity, totaled 18.4 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) on January 1, 2025-essentially flat compared with last year.

Electricity demand in the PJM Interconnection and ISO New England (two regional grid operators covering the Northeast United States) reached multiyear highs on June 23 and June 24, respectively. Electricity demand increased significantly due to a heat wave that affected most of the Eastern United States this week.

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) Reference case, we project the electricity consumed for commercial computing will increase faster than any other end use in buildings. Computing accounted for an estimated 8% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2024 and grows to 20% by 2050. Ultimately, more electricity could be consumed by computing than for any other end use in the commercial sector, including lighting, space cooling, and ventilation.

In 2024, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transited the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from Qatar. The strait is a critical route for oil and petroleum products as well.

During summer 2025, from June through September, residential customers in the United States can expect average monthly electricity bills of $178, a slight increase from last summer's average of $173. We expect a slight decrease in consumption, driven by cooler forecast summer temperatures relative to last summer, which only partially offsets the expected increase in residential electricity prices in most areas of the country.

The United States continued to produce more energy than it consumed in 2024. This surplus energy production helped energy exports grow to a record high 30.9 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2024, up 4% from 2023. Energy imports stayed flat at 21.7 quads in 2024, meaning the United States exported 9.3 quads more energy than it imported, the highest net exports in our records, which date back to 1949.

We forecast U.S. ethane exports will decrease by 80,000 barrels per day (b/d) this year and by 177,000 b/d in 2026 in our June Short-Term Energy Outlook because of new licensing requirements for U.S. exports of ethane to China. Any policy changes that relax licensing requirements, such as the outcome of trade negotiations between the United States and China, would lead us to increase our forecasts for U.S. ethane exports again.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is deep enough and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, and it is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Large volumes of oil flow through the strait, and very few alternative options exist to move oil out of the strait if it is closed. In 2024, oil flow through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. In the first quarter of 2025, total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained relatively flat compared with 2024.

Underground working natural gas storage capacity in the Lower 48 states increased in 2024 according to our latest data. We calculate natural gas storage capacity in two ways: demonstrated peak capacity and working gas design capacity. Both increased in 2024. Underground natural gas storage provides a source of energy when demand increases, balancing U.S. energy needs. In 2024, demonstrated peak capacity rose 1.7%, or 70 billion cubic feet (Bcf), to 4,277 Bcf, while working gas design capacity increased slightly by 0.1%, or 3 Bcf.

Developers plan to add 18.7 gigawatts (GW) of combined-cycle capacity to the grid by 2028, with 4.3 GW already under construction, according to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. Although electricity generators fueled by natural gas have provided more electricity in the United States than any other source since 2016, hardly any new natural gas capacity came online last year.

In 2024, the United States produced a record amount of energy, according to data in our Monthly Energy Review. U.S. total energy production was more than 103 quadrillion British thermal units in 2024, a 1% increase from the previous record set in 2023. Several energy sources—natural gas, crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, solar, and wind—each set domestic production records last year.

We forecast crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America (GOA) will average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026, compared with 1.77 million b/d in 2024, in our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect GOA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 Bcf/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GOA is forecast to contribute about 13% of U.S. crude oil production and 1% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.

U.S. production of renewable diesel and biodiesel fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) because of uncertainty related to federal biofuel tax credits and negative profit margins. We forecast production of both fuels to increase as the year progresses but biodiesel production to remain less than in 2024.

Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.

About 22% of light-duty vehicles sold in the first quarter of the year in the United States were hybrid, battery electric, or plug-in hybrid vehicles, up from about 18% in the first quarter of 2024. Among those categories, hybrid electric vehicles have continued to gain market share while battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have remained relatively flat, according to estimates from Wards Intelligence.

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the grid operator for most of the state, is increasingly curtailing solar- and wind-powered electricity generation as it balances supply and demand amidst rapid renewables capacity growth.