The U.S. Capitol. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)

WASHINGTON — Congress overwhelmingly approved a stopgap spending bill Wednesday that will keep the federal government running through Dec. 20, though the divided Congress has a lot of negotiating to do if members want to pass the dozen full-year appropriations bills before their new deadline.

The short-term funding bill, sometimes referred to as a continuing resolution, will avoid a partial government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1.

The CR is supposed to give lawmakers more time to hash out agreement on the appropriations bills. But Congress regularly uses it as a safety net to push off or entirely avoid making decisions about which departments should get more funding and whether to change policy about how federal tax dollars are spent.

Debate on the CR was broadly bipartisan with Democrats and Republicans voicing support ahead of the 341-82 House vote and the 78-18 Senate vote. 

President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill ahead of the Oct. 1 shutdown deadline.

‘Plenty of problems’ ahead

The stopgap bill was the last major legislation considered by Congress before Election Day. A lame-duck session is scheduled to begin Nov. 12.

“In a matter of days, funding for fiscal year 2024 will run out and it’s Congress’ responsibility to ensure that the government remains open and serving the American people,” House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., said during floor debate. “We are here to avert harmful disruptions to our national security and vital programs our constituents rely on.”

Cole said he hopes Congress can approve the dozen full-year bills later this year.

“The next president and the next Congress should not be forced to do the work of this administration and this Congress,” Cole said. “They’re going to have plenty of problems … let’s not throw a potential government shutdown in front of them as well.”

Connecticut Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro, ranking member on the spending panel, said lawmakers must begin conference talks in the days ahead to reach a bipartisan agreement on the full-year spending bills.

“No matter who wins in November, we owe it to the next Congress and the next president to not saddle them with yesterday’s problems,” DeLauro said.

Noncitizen voting bill dropped

Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy spoke against the stopgap spending bill and expressed frustration that lawmakers were, once again, relying on a continuing resolution instead of having met the Oct. 1 deadline to pass the full-year spending bills.

“We should not be kicking the can down the road to Dec. 20, a mere five days before Christmas, which is what this town always does,” he said.

Roy also criticized House GOP leaders for not sticking with a six-month stopgap spending bill that carried with it a bill to require proof of citizenship to register to vote.

House leaders brought that bill to the floor last week, but didn’t garner the votes needed to send it to the Senate. Noncitizen voting in federal elections is already illegal.

Secret Service spending

The 49-page continuing resolution extends the funding levels and policies that Congress approved earlier this year as part of its last appropriations process.

Lawmakers included a provision that will let the Secret Service spend money at a faster rate than what would have otherwise been allowed “for protective operations, including for activities relating to National Special Security Events and the 2024 Presidential Campaign,” according to a summary of the bill.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency got a similar provision so it can spend more money that would have otherwise been permitted from its disaster relief fund. The Forest Service’s Wildland Fire

Management account was also granted a faster spend rate.

The stopgap spending bill extended authorization for the National Flood Insurance Program as well as several other federal programs that were on track to expire at the end of September.

November election

Whether Congress reaches agreement with the Biden administration on the dozen full-year government funding bills later this year will likely depend on the outcome of the November elections.

Voters choosing divided government for another two years will likely incentivize leaders to work out bipartisan, bicameral agreements during the five weeks Congress is in session during November and December.

Republicans or Democrats securing unified control of the House, Senate and White House could result in another stopgap spending bill pushing off decisions until after the next Congress and next president take their oaths of office in January.

A new president, a new budget ask

Regardless of when Congress completes work on the dozen full-year funding bills, the next president will likely submit their first budget request to lawmakers sometime next spring, starting the annual process all over again.

The president is supposed to release the budget request in early February, but that’s often delayed during the first year of a new administration.

The House and Senate Appropriations committees will then begin holding hearings with Cabinet secretaries and agency heads to ask about their individual requests and begin assessing whether lawmakers will boost their spending.

The Appropriations Committees in each chamber will likely release their separate slates of full-year appropriations bills next summer, possibly followed by floor debate.

This year the House Appropriations Committee reported all dozen of its bills to the floor, following party-line votes when Democrats objected to both spending levels and policy language.

House Republicans approved five of those bills on the floor.

Senate appropriators took broadly bipartisan votes to approve 11 of their bills in committee, save the Homeland Security measure. None of the bills has gone to the floor for amendment debate and a final vote.

That’s not entirely uncommon in the Senate, where floor time is often dedicated to approving judicial nominees and it can take weeks to approve one spending bill.

The House, by contrast, can approve bills in a matter of hours or days if leadership has secured the votes.

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  The Dome of the U.S. Capitol Building is visible as protective fencing is erected around construction for the 2025 inauguration platform on the West Front on Capitol Hill on Sept. 17, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The country’s next president will need a friendly Congress to make their policy dreams a reality, but control of the two chambers remains deeply uncertain with just weeks until Election Day — and whether the outcome will be a party trifecta in the nation’s capital.

Recent projections tilt in favor of Republicans taking the U.S. Senate, an already closely divided chamber that is sure to be near evenly split again next Congress.

And though Vice President Kamala Harris injected a jolt of energy into the Democratic Party, prognosticators still say the prizewinner of the House is anybody’s guess.

“The House is highly close and competitive, and really could go either way.  And I say the same thing about the presidential race,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told States Newsroom on Thursday.

A ‘district-by-district slug fest’ 

Control of the 435-seat House remains a toss-up, with competitive races in both the seven swing states and in states that will almost certainly have no bearing on who wins the top of the ticket.

Sabato’s, an election prognosticator, currently ranks nine Republican seats of the roughly 30 competitive races as “toss-up” seats for the party — meaning the GOP incumbents are locked in competitive races.

The GOP has held a slim majority this Congress, and Democrats only need to net four seats to gain control.

“It really is right on the razor’s edge,” Kondik said. “It’s pretty crazy that, you know, we’ve had two straight elections with just 222-seat majorities. And it’s pretty rare historically for there to be, you know, majorities that small twice in a row — unprecedented.

“Usually you’d have one side or the other breaking out to a bigger advantage, and I think both sides are viewing this, really, as a district-by-district slug fest.”

Sabato’s adjusted its ratings on five races Thursday, including moving Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska to the “toss-up” category from a safer “leans Democratic.” Kondik also nudged the race for Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York to “leans Republican” from “toss up.”

“The big ones are probably Peltola, and then Mike Lawler, who holds one of the bluest seats held by a Republican, but I moved him to ‘leans R.’ It seems pretty clear to me that he’s in a decent position,” Kondik said.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s fundraising arm for House races, announced in June nearly $1.2 million in ad buys in Alaska. The organization launched a new ad in the state this month that accuses Peltola of not supporting veterans.

It’s always about Pennsylvania

In addition to Peltola, Kondik ranks nine other Democratic incumbents — of the nearly 40 competitive races — as toss-ups.

Among the toss-ups is the seat currently held by Rep. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania, a key swing state in the presidential race. Cartwright’s Republican challenger, Rob Bresnahan, runs an electrical contracting company in the northeastern Pennsylvania district that he took over from his grandfather.

Democrats are investing in the seat: Cartwright is running a new ad featuring union workers praising him, and just last week Harris hosted a rally in the district, which includes Scranton.

But the NRCC thinks they have a pretty good chance of flipping his seat.

Breshnahan’s company is “a union shop,” said NRCC head Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina. “So he can talk union talk. He’s a great candidate for us.”

“Matt Cartwright is in trouble,” Hudson said on the conservative “Ruthless Podcast” on Sept. 12.

“I think the way we’ve structured it, the type of candidates we recruited across the country, from Maine to Alaska, from Minnesota to Texas, regardless of top of the ticket, we’re going to pick up seats,” Hudson said.

Van Orden targeted in Wisconsin

But Sabato’s also nudged three seats toward the Democrats’ favor on Thursday.

Kondik moved Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin from the safety of “likely Republican” to the weaker “leans Republican” category.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sees an “important opportunity” in Van Orden’s district. The GOP congressman, who represents central and western Wisconsin, became known for his profanity-laced outburst at young Senate pages for taking photos of the Capitol rotunda.

The Democrats are running challenger Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner, in the hopes of unseating him.

“We have an incredible candidate in Rebecca Cooke (against) one of the most extreme, which is saying a lot, Republicans in the House,” DelBene told reporters on a call Monday.

“We have put Rebecca Cooke on our Red-to-Blue list and are strongly supporting her campaign. She’s doing a great job, and this absolutely is a priority for us,” DelBene said, referring to the DCCC’s list of 30 candidates that receive extra fundraising support.

DelBene said she’s confident in the Democrats’ chances to flip the House, citing healthy coffers and revived interest.

“We have seen huge enthusiasm all across the country. We have seen people, more and more people turning out to volunteer, to knock on doors, to make phone calls,” she said.

Democrats’ cash ‘flooding,’ NRCC chief says

Erin Covey, a House analyst with The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, wrote on Sept. 5 that Democrats have a brighter outlook after Harris assumed the top of the ticket, though November remains a close call.

“Now, polling conducted by both parties largely shows Harris matching, or coming a few points short of, Biden’s 2020 margins across competitive House districts,” Covey wrote.

The NRCC has taken note. During his interview on the “Ruthless Podcast,” Hudson compared Harris becoming the Democrats’ new choice for president as a “bloodless coup,” and said the enthusiasm she’s sparked is a cause for concern for Republicans. Democratic delegates nominated Harris, in accordance with party rules, to run for the Oval Office after Biden dropped out in late July.

“A lot of people, even Democrats, you know, just weren’t comfortable voting for Joe Biden. With Kamala on the ticket, we saw a surge in Democrats coming home and having the enthusiasm,” Hudson said.

Hudson said he also worries about Democrats’ fundraising numbers.

“The one thing that keeps you awake at night is the Democrat money. It’s flooding,” Hudson said. “The second quarter this year I was able to raise the most money we’ve ever raised as a committee, and the Democrats raised $7 million more. I mean, it’s just, they just keep coming. It’s like the Terminator.”

“But we don’t have to match them dollar for dollar,” Hudson said. “We’ve just got to make sure we’ve got the resources we need. And so we’ve just got to keep our pace.”

The DCCC announced Friday it raised $22.3 million in August, bringing its total for this election cycle to $250.6 million.

Senate map tilts toward GOP

Republicans are inching closer and closer to flipping the Senate red during this year’s elections, thanks to a map that favors GOP incumbents and puts Democrats on the defensive in several states.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is widely expected to win his bid for the upper chamber, bringing Republicans up to 50 seats, as long as they hang on in Florida, Nebraska and Texas.

But Democrats will need to secure wins in several challenging states, including Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and break the 50-50 tie through a Democratic presidency — if they want to remain the majority party.

That many Democratic wins seems increasingly unlikely, though not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester is looking to secure reelection against GOP challenger Tim Sheehy, has been moved from a “toss-up” state to leaning toward Republicans by three respected analysis organizations in the last few weeks.

The Cook Political Report wrote in its ratings change earlier this month that several “public polls have shown Sheehy opening up a small, but consistent lead.”

“Democrats push back that their polling still shows Tester within the margin of error of the race, and that those are exactly the type of close races he’s won before,” their assessment said. “Tester, however, has never run on a presidential ballot in a polarized environment of this kind before — and even with his stumbles, Sheehy is still the strongest, best financed candidate he’s ever faced.”

Republicans winning Montana’s Senate seat could give them a firm, though narrow, 51-seat Senate majority.

Florida, Texas, Nebraska

That, however, would require the Republican incumbents in states like Florida and Texas — where it’s not clear if evolving trends against Republicans will continue — to secure their reelection wins.

And it would mean holding off a wild card independent candidate in the Cornhusker state.

The Cook Political Report says it’s “worth keeping an eye on a unique situation developing in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborn is challenging Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.”

CPR also noted in its analysis that Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities, which could rebalance the scales a bit, are Florida and Texas.

“Today, the Lone Star State looks like the better option because of the strengths and fundraising of Democrats’ challenger there, Rep. Colin Allred,” CPR wrote.

If Democrats do hold onto 50 seats, through whatever combination of wins and losses shakes out on election night, majority control would depend on whichever candidate wins the presidential contest.

Given the close nature of several Senate races, it is entirely possible control of that chamber isn’t known until after recounts take place in the swing states.

Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Gary Peters, D-Mich., said during a Christian Science Monitor breakfast this week that he’s known all along Democratic candidates will be in “very right races.”

“In a nutshell, I’m optimistic,” Peters said. “I believe we’re going to hold the majority. I feel good about where we are. We’re basically where I thought we would be after Labor Day in really tight races. None of this is a surprise to us. Now we just have to run our playbook, be focused, be disciplined.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, led this cycle by Montana Sen. Steve Daines, is confident the GOP will pick up the Senate majority following November’s elections.

The group highlighted a Washington Post poll this week showing a tie between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and GOP candidate Dave McCormick in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

NRSC Spokesman Philip Letsou sent out a written statement after the poll’s release that Casey is in the “race for his life…because Pennsylvania voters know Casey’s lockstep support for Kamala Harris and her inflationary, anti-fracking agenda will devastate their economy. Pennsylvanians have had enough of liberal, career politicians like Casey and Harris.”

No change in filibuster in sight

The GOP acquisition of a handful of seats would still require the next Republican leader to constantly broker deals with Democrats, since the chamber is widely expected to retain the legislative filibuster.

That rule requires at least 60 senators vote to advance legislation toward final passage and is the main reason the chamber rarely takes up partisan bills.

A Republican sweep of the House, Senate and White House for unified government would give them the chance to pass certain types of legislation through the fast-track budget reconciliation process they used to approve the 2017 tax law.

How wide their majorities are in each chamber will determine how much they can do within such a bill, given Republicans will still have centrist members, like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins, balancing the party against more far-right policy goals.

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