A new report finds that even with Wisconsin's record employment growth, the boom hasn't benefited all parts of the state. A mural depicting workers is painted on windows of the Madison-Kipp Corp. The artwork was created by Goodman Community Center students and Madison-Kipp employees with Dane Arts Mural Arts. (Erik Gunn | Wisconsin Examiner)

Four years after a brief but stark crash in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, Wisconsin employment has made a strong comeback — but the recovery has been uneven across the state,  according to a new report from the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

Employment in the state now stands at more than 2.92 million jobs — 1.2% higher than its peak in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the report, which was released Friday.

In more than half of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, however, employment in 2023 remains lower than it was in 2019.  

“There are quite a few very positive indicators here when you look at the overall picture,” said Joseph Peterangelo, Wisconsin Policy Forum research director and author of the report. Those positives are accentuated in contrast to the sharp employment drop-off in the pandemic’s early months.

In the long recovery unemployment has remained low, at or below 3%, and wages have kept up with inflation, according to federal data.

“But when you get into the details, it’s a very mixed picture,” Peterangelo said.

In more than half of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, jobs in 2023 haven’t yet caught up with 2019.

“The improvement also has been inconsistent across the economy, with most sectors having fully rebounded by 2023 but several remaining down by thousands of jobs,” the report states.

Employment grew fastest from 2019 to 2023 in a varied group of rural and urban counties. Counties near the metro areas of Chicago and Minnesota’s Twin Cities were among those with the strongest employment growth, according to the report.

Employment has fallen short of 2019 levels in a variety of counties as well — from the state’s most urban, Milwaukee County, to many of its most rural areas.

Milwaukee County, also the state’s most populous, saw the largest decline in the number of jobs in 2023 compared to 2019 — a drop of 19,140, or 4%. The county’s working-age population (ages 15-64) was also down 3.9% in 2023 from 2019, data that Peterangelo provided showed.

But not all counties where employment was lower in 2023 than in 2019 lost working-age residents. Some counties saw employment rise despite a shrinking population, while in others employment fell even as the working-age population increased.

“It could be there’s different stories going on in different communities,” said Peterangelo.

Kenosha County’s working-age population for example, was 2.4% less in 2023 than 2019, according to the report. But it “is among the Wisconsin counties that added jobs the fastest” — with 5,700 more jobs, an 8.5% increase.

According to the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, a higher percentage of workers commute either into Kenosha County or from the county to jobs elsewhere “than many other counties in Wisconsin,” the report states.

Dane County had the largest employment gain in the 2019-2023 period, more than 8,800 jobs.

The largest growth in Wisconsin jobs over the 2019-2023 period was in construction, according to the report — an increase of 12,000. Professional, scientific and technical service jobs rose by almost as much in that time, and transportation and warehousing jobs by more than 11,000.

Statewide there were almost 9,000 fewer jobs in manufacturing in 2023 than in 2019, according to the report. But within the overall manufacturing sector, there were dramatic differences.

The paper industry, for instance, has steadily lost jobs over the five-year period, Peterangelo said. Meanwhile, fabricated metal manufacturing jobs fell from more than 77,000 to 71,000 early in the pandemic, but have since rebounded to more than 75,000 — a marked improvement but still short of its earlier peak.

While the net loss of manufacturing jobs may prompt concern, the report states, “the state’s strong overall employment and wage growth figures perhaps suggest that our economy is diversifying, which could be a strength if it means greater resilience during future economic downturns.”

Demographic challenges remain for Wisconsin, however. From 2010 to 2023, the Wisconsin population in prime working years (25 to 54) fell by 133,000 or 5.8%, the report states. Nationally that age group grew by 2.8% in the same period.

The state’s “aging population, low birth rate, and weak net migration figures have resulted in a shrinking working-age population, which could affect the state’s ability to attract and retain employers,” the report states.