U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Black Earth) speaks about impending insurance price increases due to the sunset of enhance subsidies for health insurance policies purchased at HealthCare.gov. (Photo by Erik Gunn/Wisconsin Examiner)

Sometime in the next 10 days, Wisconsin residents will see directly what the stakes are in the ongoing standoff in Washington over the federal shutdown, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Black Earth) said Wednesday.

That’s when people who buy health insurance through the federal HealthCare.gov marketplace under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will find out their likely premiums for 2026.

“In the next probably 10 days, we’re going to have a lot more information,” Pocan said at a press conference in the state Capitol along with small business owners and state lawmakers. “Health care is going to start getting very expensive for everyone beyond what it costs now — but for some people it’s going to be so cost prohibitive that they’re going to actually wind up losing their health insurance.”

Most Democrats in the U.S. Senate have refused to vote to advance a Republican continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded and have said they won’t do so if Republicans won’t negotiate with them on the bill.

In demanding changes to the stopgap spending bill, Democrats have focused on enhanced premium tax credits that provide subsidies for most people who buy health insurance on the federal marketplace.

The enhanced subsidies, enacted in 2021 and extended in 2022, will expire at the end of this year, driving up the premium cost for health insurance policies sold on the marketplace.

Pocan said that with the premiums on ACA policies going up and losing the additional subsidies, “a couple 60 years old making $85,000 in my district could see somewhere between a $16,000 and $17,000 increase next year in their premiums.” The projections are the product of KFF, the independent health research, policy and news organization.

Macy Buhler owns a child care center. She said her own health insurance comes through her husband’s job, but some of her employees have relied on the ACA and HealthCare.gov to buy insurance. With the possibility that they won’t be able to afford those plans any more, she said, she’s been inquiring with insurance companies about their potential options.

“I’m doing the best I can,” Buhler said. “But when people don’t see that this is going to affect our workforce, it frustrates me. It will absolutely affect our workforce. It will absolutely affect families who are middle class and lower. It will affect our farmers.”

Kyle LaFond, who  owns a custom manufacturing business, said he and his team of eight employees have relied on the ACA for health insurance.

“The ACA really leveled the playing field in terms of being able to provide coverage,” LaFond said.

Among his employees, the projected increases for health insurance will range from $2,000 to about $12,000. “For a growing family, those price hikes are almost insurmountable. It’s unconscionable,” La Fond said.

With the increased subsidies expiring, “I might lose some good people,” he added. “So I’m talking about the future of my business.”

Democrats tried to make extending the subsidies part of the tax- and spending-cut megabill that President Donald Trump signed in July, but the procedure Republicans used to pass that legislation allowed them to move it through the process without Democratic votes.

Pocan said the Democrats are not willing to trust the Republican majority to  negotiate on the ACA subsidies if the Democrats first agree on the GOP bill and simply reopen the government.

Previous deals in December and in March on stopgap spending bills fell apart, he said. “Then Donald Trump did recissions, which are against the law, and started taking away funding that we did. Article 1 of the Constitution gives the power of the purse to Congress and he took it away. So they get all of that.”

Pocan said the recurring Republican claim that Democrats are holding out “because they want to give hundreds of billions of dollars of health benefits to illegal aliens — PolitiFact gave that an outright false.”

Pocan refrained from using a barnyard epithet for the claim. “Manure is what it is,” he said, glancing around at the ornately decorated Assembly parlor. “It’s a pretty room. I got to talk pretty.”

But, he said, “by federal law, not one dime can go directly to someone who’s an undocumented person — I’m going to use that terminology — from Medicare, Medicaid, or the Affordable Care Act. So, nothing. So, it’s not true.”

Public awareness about the shutdown could be lagging. Pocan said his office had 85 calls last week about the shutdown.

By contrast, in the last nine months, his office has taken 14,435 calls about health care. “So this is something that people really care about.”

Rep. Mark Pocan and Sen. Tammy Baldwin | Collage of screenshots via Zoom

Last time the government was on the brink of a shutdown, Democratic leaders rushed to negotiate with Republicans and reached a deal to keep federal agencies open and basic services flowing. Now that deal is about to expire and there seems to be little appetite for compromise in Washington. 

President Donald Trump has directed Republicans “don’t even bother dealing with” Democrats, and the House rammed through a near-party-line resolution to keep the government open that ignored Democratic demands and had no Democratic input at all. 

“We’re not sure how serious they are about actually trying to have something done by September 30,” Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, told reporters in his Madison office Wednesday. Trump had just canceled a meeting with Democratic leaders of the House and Senate, and the House isn’t even in session during the last days of September, as the shutdown clock winds down. 

Still, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called the Democratic caucus back anyway, “so I’ll be flying Monday out to Washington,” Pocan said.  “Hopefully they’ll decide we’ve got work to do. But you know, this is something where we don’t run the House or the Senate or the White House.” In other words, if the government shuts down, it’s the Republicans’ fault. Republicans, who don’t appear worried about a shutdown, say the opposite, rolling their eyes at Democrats’ demands that a stopgap government funding bill must reverse Medicaid cuts and extend Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year and without which an estimated 5 million Americans will no longer be able to afford any health insurance at all.

A shutdown means hardship for people who depend on government services and could harm the whole economy, “But at the same time,” Pocan said, “we’re trying to fight for people who lost their health care and other things from what we call the Big, Ugly Law.”

Pocan cited data from the nonpartisan health research organization KFF on likely health insurance premium hikes in Wisconsin if the ACA tax credits are not extended. A KFF calculator estimates premium increases for families of different sizes and income levels in every state. A family of four earning $130,000 per year in Wisconsin could see premiums jump by as much as $1,588 per month or $19,081 per year, according to the calculator.

Nationwide, premiums will soar by more than 75% if the credits expire, according to KFF.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin has called for legislation she introduced earlier this year to make the enhanced premium tax credits permanent to be included in any stopgap bill to avert a shutdown.

In a joint statement, Democratic leaders of the House and Senate criticized House Republicans for ignoring their pleas to address the expiring ACA tax credits, writing, “at a time when families are already being squeezed by higher costs, Republicans refuse to stop Americans from facing double-digit hikes in their health insurance premiums.” 

The sudden jump in health insurance premiums, combined with high costs for consumer goods because of Trump’s tariffs, will hit voters just ahead of the midterm elections, which take place right after the ACA tax credits are set to expire. Politics alone should make the idea of forestalling the sudden cliff appealing. But this is no ordinary Republican party. Back in their districts, ducking in-person meetings with constituents, members of Congress who voted for the Big Beautiful Bill Act to slash health care, food assistance and federal agencies that serve their constituents are still in lockstep with Trump. No wonder they don’t care if the entire government grinds to a halt.

A shutdown will be bad. But what Trump and the Republicans have in store for Americans is worse. 

More than the effects of a shutdown, said Pocan, “I’m far more concerned about what they just did to people that we need to try to fix, and if they’re not willing to have those conversations with us — that’s a big problem.”