A person places flowers in front of a photograph of Mother Cabrini, patron saint of immigrants, during an interfaith service on behalf of immigrants in November in Miami. GOP reversals in this year’s elections, including in Miami, are setting off alarm bells for Republicans and could cause redistricting efforts to backfire. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

GOP reversals in this year’s elections, especially in some urban and immigrant communities, are setting off alarm bells for Republicans using redistricting to try to keep control of Congress in next year’s midterms.

Redistricting plans demanded by President Donald Trump in states such as Texas and Missouri — meant to capitalize on his stronger showing among certain urban voters in the 2024 election — could backfire, as cities in Florida, New Jersey and Virginia returned to Democratic voting patterns in off-year elections this past November.

Experts see the shift as a sign of possible souring on the administration’s immigration enforcement agenda, combined with disappointment in economic conditions.

Paul Brace, an emeritus political science professor of legal studies at Rice University in Houston, said Texas Republicans are likely to gain less than they imagine from new maps designed to pick up five additional seats for the party. He said minority voters’ interest in Trump was “temporary” and that he had underperformed on the economy.

“Trump’s redistricting efforts are facing headwinds and, even in Texas, may not yield all he had hoped,” Brace said.

Redistricting efforts in Texas spawned a retaliatory plan in California aimed at getting five more Democratic seats. Other states have leapt into the fray, with Republicans claiming an overall edge of three potential seats in proposed maps.

Cuban-born Jose Arango, chair of the Hudson County Republican Party in New Jersey, said immigration enforcement has gone too far and caused a backlash at the polls.

“There are people in the administration who frankly don’t know what the hell is going on,” Arango said. “If you arrest criminals, God bless you. We don’t want criminals in our streets. But then you deport people who have been here 30 years, 20 years, and have contributed to society, have been good people for the United States. You go into any business in agriculture, the hospitality business, even the guy who cuts the grass — they’re all undocumented. Who’s going to pick our tomatoes?”

As immigration arrests increase this year, a growing share of those detained have no criminal convictions.

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, which includes urban Paterson, went from a surprising Trump win last year to a lopsided victory this year for Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill. Trump won the district last year by 3 percentage points and Sherrill won by 16 points. The district is majority-minority and 39% immigrant.

There was a similar turnaround in Miami, a majority-immigrant city that elected a Democratic mayor for the first time in almost 30 years. Parts of immigrant-rich Northern Virginia also shifted in the governor’s race there.

In the New Jersey district, Billy Prempeh, a Republican whose parents emigrated from Ghana, lost a surprisingly close 2024 race for U.S. House to Democrat Nellie Pou, of Puerto Rican descent, who became the first Latina from New Jersey to serve in Congress.

Prempeh this year launched another campaign for the seat, but withdrew after Sherrill won the governor’s race, telling Stateline that any Republican who runs for that seat “is going to get slaughtered.”

Prempeh doesn’t blame Trump or more aggressive immigration enforcement for the shift. He said his parents and their family waited years to get here legally, and he objects to people being allowed to stay for court dates after they crossed the border with Mexico.

“We aren’t deporting enough people. Not everybody agrees with me on that,” Prempeh said.

Parts of Virginia saw similar voting pattern changes. Prince William County, south of Washington, D.C., saw support for Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger jump to 67% compared with 57% for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris last year. The county is about 26% immigrant and 27% Hispanic.

Asian American and Hispanic voters shifted more Democratic this year in both New Jersey and Virginia, said J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, expanding on a November post on the subject.

However, some of those Virginia voters might have sat out the governor’s race, Coleman said.

“I do think there is an element of Trump-curious minority voters staying home this year,” Coleman said. “There were many heavily Asian and Hispanic precincts in Northern Virginia that saw this huge percentage swing from Harris to Spanberger, but also saw relatively weak turnout.”

The pattern is “hard to extrapolate” to Texas or other states with new maps, Coleman said, “but Democrats are probably liking what they saw in this year’s elections.”

He said one of the redrawn districts in Texas is now likely to go to Democrats: the majority-Hispanic 28th Congressional District, which includes parts of San Antonio and South Texas. And the nearby 34th Congressional District is now a tossup instead of leaning Republican, according to new Center for Politics projections.

The pattern in New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District this year was consistent in Hispanic areas statewide, according to an analysis provided to Stateline by Michael Foley, elections coordinator of State Navigate, a Virginia-based nonprofit that analyzes state election data.

New Jersey Hispanic precincts “swung heavily” toward Sherrill compared with their 2024 vote for Harris, Foley said in an email. He noted that New Jersey and Florida Hispanic populations are largely from the Caribbean and may not reflect patterns elsewhere, such as Texas where the Hispanic population is heavily Mexican American.

Pou, who won the New Jersey seat, said economics played a part in this year’s electoral shift.

“The President made a promise to my constituents that he’d lower costs and instead he’s made the problem worse with his tariffs that raised costs across the board,” Pou said in a statement to Stateline.

Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said immigration and pocketbook issues both played a role in places like the 9th District, as did an influx of Democratic campaign money.

“The biggest reason is a sense of letdown in President Trump,” Rasmussen said. “There were many urban voters who decided they liked what Trump was saying, they liked the Hispanic outreach, they bought into his economic message. And just one year later, they’re equally disillusioned.”

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 1, 2025. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)

WASHINGTON — Republican leaders in the U.S. House will face a floor vote in early 2026 on Democrats’ plan to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits for three more years, after passing their own legislation Wednesday night that has little chance of a future in the Senate and does not address the tax credits.

The House vote on that legislation will be required after a handful of moderate Republicans signed on to a discharge petition Wednesday morning. Their dissent with leadership sent a strong signal they are frustrated with the majority’s policies and the rising cost of health care for their constituents. 

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said after a morning vote series on the floor, where he was seen in a heated exchange with Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, that the two “just had some intense fellowship” and “it’s all good.”

Lawler is one of the four centrist Republicans who signed the discharge petition, putting it over the threshold of 218 to force a vote on the legislation. 

“We’re working through very complex issues as we do here all the time,” Johnson said. “Everybody’s working towards ideas — we’re keeping the productive conversation going.” 

The speaker also mounted his own defense, saying he has “not lost control of the House.”

That chamber has seen chaos and intraparty divides in the aftermath of the government shutdown, when Johnson opted to send lawmakers home for nearly two months. 

“We have the smallest majority in U.S. history,” Johnson said. “These are not normal times — there are processes and procedures in the House that are less frequently used when there are larger majorities, and when you have the luxury of having 10 or 15 people who disagree on something, you don’t have to deal with it, but when you have a razor-thin margin, as we do, then all the procedures in the book people think are on the table, and that’s the difference.”

Republicans push through ‘extremely modest’ bill

House debate on Republican leaders’ health care bill later in the day was largely along party lines, with members of both parties talking nearly as much about the Affordable Care Act as they did about the policy in the new legislation. 

Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., said he believes that law, enacted during President Barack Obama’s first term, “has proven to be unaffordable and unsustainable.” 

Guthrie rebuked Democrats for approving the enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits during the coronavirus pandemic and scheduling them to expire at the end of this year, leading to the current deadlock in Congress. 

“Democrats leveraged a public health emergency to shovel hundreds of billions of dollars to big health insurance plans to mask the risk of rising unaffordability of coverage,” Guthrie said.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., urged Johnson to put the three-year ACA extension bill up for a vote this week, instead of in the new year. 

“Republicans need to bring the Affordable Care Act tax credit extension bill to the floor today,” Jeffries said. “Under no circumstances should we leave this Capitol this week, before voting on an extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credit bill that we know will pass.” 

California Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, one of the centrists looking for bipartisan solutions on the expiring tax credits, expressed dismay at how debate on health care costs has been handled during the past few months by leaders in both political parties. 

“This whole issue encapsulates what is wrong with this institution, where party leaders focus most of their time and energy on trying to blame problems on the other side rather than trying to solve those problems,” Kiley said. 

The House Republican bill, he said, is “extremely modest and it has no chance of becoming law because it was hastily thrown together without, apparently, any bipartisan input when bipartisan support is necessary to pass any measure like this.”

“What are we supposed to tell these folks? ‘Oh, don’t worry, it’s Obama’s fault.’ Or, ‘Oh no don’t worry, we did a show vote on this Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act.’ Is that going to be any consolation?” Kiley said. 

New Jersey Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone called the House GOP bill a “sham” and said without a vote to extend the expiring ACA tax credits millions of Americans will have to decide if they can afford health insurance coverage. 

“They will see prices double, triple and even quadruple,” Pallone said. “It will leave millions with the difficult decision of going without coverage because they simply cannot afford rising costs.”

The House voted 216-211 to approve the Republican health care bill, sending it to the Senate, where it’s highly unlikely it would get the bipartisan support needed to advance without significant revision. 

Senate approach

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said earlier in the day he hadn’t yet decided whether to put the House Democrats’ bill on the floor if it is passed and arrives. 

“Well, we’ll see. I mean, we obviously will cross that bridge when we come to it,” Thune said. “Even if they have a sufficient number of signatures, I doubt they vote on it this week.”

Thune said the discharge petition on the three-year ACA tax credits extension is far different from the discharge petition that forced a House floor vote on a bill to require the release of the Epstein files. Files related to Jeffrey Epstein, who died in jail in 2019 awaiting federal trial on sex trafficking charges, have become a target of Congress and victims in recent months.

“That came over here pretty much unanimously, 427 to 1,” Thune said. 
“And my assumption is this discharge petition is going to be a very, probably, partisan vote.”

The Senate voted earlier this month on Democrats’ three-year ACA tax credits legislation, a move that Thune agreed to in order to get enough Democratic votes to end the government shutdown. That bill, which is identical to the House version, was unable to get the 60 votes needed to advance on a 51-48 vote. 

Both chambers are set to leave Capitol Hill later this week for their two-week winter break and won’t return to work until the week of Jan. 5. 

‘We have to do something’ 

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen said she sees the House discharge petition reaching the 218-signature threshold as “constructive.” 

The New Hampshire Democrat said “bipartisan, bicameral talks continue that are also constructive, so hopefully we can see some movement.” 

Though she is “hopeful” for a deal in January, Shaheen said “obviously, there’s a lot that needs to happen in order to get something done, but people need relief,” adding that “people in both houses and on both sides of the aisle are hearing from constituents that they want to see something done.” 

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley — one of four Republicans who voted with Democrats to advance the three-year extension plan — reiterated his calls for lawmakers to take action to address the looming premium spikes. 

“I just think we have to do something on the cost of premiums, and I’m not locked into any one thing,” he said, acknowledging that he voted for both Democrats’ proposal and his GOP colleagues’ alternative bill. That effort also failed, at 51-48, to garner the 60 votes needed to move forward.  

“I mean, advance any solution — that’s my view, but what I think we should not do is just sit back and say, ‘Well, you know, good luck. We wish you all the best.’” 

Frustration breaks through

The House Republican bill, which Johnson released Friday evening, doesn’t extend the enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits.

It would require Pharmacy Benefit Managers “to provide employers with detailed data on prescription drug spending, rebates, spread pricing, and formulary decisions—empowering plans and workers with the transparency they deserve,” according to a summary in Johnson’s release. 

Starting in 2027, the legislation would appropriate funding for cost sharing reduction payments that the summary said would reduce health insurance premiums and stabilize the individual market. 

Johnson decided Tuesday not to allow the House to debate any amendments to the bill, blocking moderate Republicans from having their bipartisan proposal to extend the ACA marketplace tax credits with modifications taken up. 

That led to considerable frustration, and Wednesday morning, Pennsylvania Republican Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie, along with New York’s Lawler, signed the Democrats’ discharge petition, putting it at the 218 signatures needed to force a floor vote in that chamber. 

“We’ve worked for months with both parties, in both chambers, and with the White House, all in good faith, to balance all equities and offer a responsible bridge that successfully threaded the needle,” Fitzpatrick wrote in a statement.   

“Our only request was a Floor vote on this compromise, so that the American People’s voice could be heard on this issue,” Fitzpatrick added. “That request was rejected. Then, at the request of House leadership I, along with my colleagues, filed multiple amendments, and testified at length to those amendments. House leadership then decided to reject every single one of these amendments. As I’ve stated many times before, the only policy that is worse than a clean three-year extension without any reforms, is a policy of complete expiration without any bridge. Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome.”

Jeffries introduced petition

The discharge petition, introduced last month by House Democratic Leader  Jeffries, sat just below the signatures needed for weeks as centrist Republicans tried to broker a deal that could become law. 

When that logjam broke with the moderates’ signatures, it set up a House floor vote, but any legislation must move through the Senate as well and gain President Donald Trump’s signature. 

Without a law to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies, roughly 22 million Americans will see their health insurance premiums spike by thousands of dollars next year, if they can fit the rise in costs into their budgets. 

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., talks with reporters during a press conference on Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025. Also pictured from left are Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain of Michigan, Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)

WASHINGTON — U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson committed Wednesday to hold a vote next week on a package of bills that he said would lower health insurance premiums for hundreds of millions of Americans, not just those enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans. 

But the Louisiana Republican’s promise didn’t come with any details about which bills would be included in the package or whether the legislation will have the GOP votes needed to pass, amid vastly different views among his members about the federal government’s role in health care. 

“You’re going to see a package come together that will be on the floor next week that will actually reduce premiums for 100% of Americans who are on health insurance,” Johnson said. 

That will be a challenging task for Johnson and other House Republican leaders since they hold an especially narrow 220-213 majority. Democrats are unlikely to support GOP bills that don’t extend the enhanced tax credits for people who buy their health insurance through the ACA marketplace. Without the tax credit subsidies, costs are expected to rise sharply.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said just after a closed-door meeting of House GOP lawmakers on health care that leaders were still finalizing which bills would go into the package. 

“We showed a list of what the three committees of jurisdiction have been working on for months today. And then encouraged all the members to give their feedback. And they did,” Scalise said. “A lot of members spoke today at the mic, which we want. They gave their feedback. And frankly, a lot of it was very positive about those bills.”

Senate votes Thursday

The House bills are part of a larger debate in Congress and at the White House about the rising cost of living, including health care affordability, that surged to the forefront in October and November after Democrats shut down the government. 

Senate Democrats throughout the six-week shutdown demanded a vote to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., promised Democrats a floor vote on a health care bill of their choosing in exchange for votes to end the shutdown. 

The Senate is expected to vote Thursday on a Democratic bill that would extend enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits for three years.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that proposal would increase the federal deficit by $83 billion during the next decade. 

That three-year extension would boost the number of people with health insurance by 400,000 in 2026, 3 million in 2027, 4 million in 2028, and 1.1 million in 2029, compared to current law. 

Senators will also vote Thursday on legislation from Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, both Republicans, that would provide up to $1,500 annually for people who buy either bronze or catastrophic health insurance plans from the ACA marketplace.

The funding would go directly into a Health Savings Account for people between the ages of 18 and 64 who make up to 700% of the federal poverty level. That would be about $109,550 for one person or $225,050 for a family of four. The funding would last for 2026 and 2027 but end after that. 

Neither proposal is expected to get the 60 votes needed to advance under the Senate’s legislative filibuster rule. Even if a bill moved through the Senate, it would still need to get a House vote, a prospect that seemed like a long shot now that House GOP leaders are putting out a package of their own. 

Abortion coverage

South Carolina Republican Rep. Ralph Norman said after the conference meeting that “the devil’s in the details” of exactly which bills go to the floor but added GOP lawmakers had begun to form a “consensus.”

Maryland Republican Rep. Andy Harris said he doesn’t believe GOP lawmakers are responsible for addressing any aspect of the Affordable Care Act, including the expiring tax credits. 

“It’s not our responsibility to fix Obamacare,” Harris said. “They broke it. They should fix it.”

Harris, chairman of the far-right Freedom Caucus, said he wouldn’t support any bill to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits unless it restricted abortion access in those health insurance plans to only cases of rape, incest, or the life of the pregnant patient. 

That issue has become a central negotiating point for many GOP lawmakers, even those who are open to extending the tax credits a little while longer. 

‘Moment of truth’

Democrats argue adding those constraints, often referred to as the Hyde Amendment, is unacceptable and would represent a new restriction on abortion access. 

“I don’t understand when you’ve had a number of Republicans in the House and the Senate say they get it, this is a disaster to have these premiums double and triple, why they want to mess around right now and put abortion politics into the middle of this,” Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar said. “They know that that’s not going to work.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said the only proposal on the table to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits, avoiding a surge in premiums next year, is the Democratic bill. 

“Tomorrow is a moment of truth for the Republicans here in the Senate,” Schumer said. “Are they going to bring health care costs down, or will they sit by and let premiums explode for millions of Americans?”

Discharge petition on bipartisan bill

Later in the day a potential solution emerged when a bipartisan group of House lawmakers filed a discharge petition that would force a floor vote on their compromise bill if they can get at least 218 signatures. 

Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick wrote in a statement the legislation represents a “solution that can actually pass—not a political messaging exercise.”

“This bill delivers the urgent help families need now, while giving Congress the runway to keep improving our healthcare system for the long term,” Fitzpatrick wrote. “Responsible governance means securing 80 percent of what families need today, rather than risking 100 percent of nothing tomorrow.”

The 79-page bill, formally titled the Bipartisan Health Insurance Affordability Act, is co-sponsored by Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, North Carolina Democratic Rep. Donald Davis, Washington state Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, New York Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and New York Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi. 

The legislation would extend enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits through 2027 and expand access to Health Savings Accounts, among several other changes.

Golden wrote in a statement announcing the bill’s introduction Tuesday that it “implements sensible income caps” on who can receive the ACA marketplace tax credits.

“This moment requires leaders to abandon their partisan corners and govern,” Golden wrote. “Our bill provides a path out of gridlock and toward solutions.”

Gluesenkamp Perez wrote that no one “wants to shell out more cash to insurance companies or (pharmacy benefit manager) middlemen.”

“At the same time, we can’t lose sight of the fact that national health doesn’t come from insurance coverage — it hinges on people having good jobs, being able to sleep 8 hours a night, cook real food and see their kids at night,” she added. “Affordable healthcare and medicine are imperative and worth the fight, but a strong nation is longer work.”

Jacob Fischler contributed to this report.