U.S. violent crime fell sharply in 2025, according to preliminary federal data, with murders dropping an estimated 18.1% — a decline that could push the national homicide rate to its lowest level on record if the figures hold.

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program reported that overall violent crime fell an estimated 9.3% compared with 2024, alongside broad decreases across major categories. Robbery dropped 18.5%, aggravated assault fell 7.2% and reported rapes declined 7.6%. Property crime was down an estimated 12.4%.

The FBI said the estimates, released last week, are based on data submitted by more than 17,000 law enforcement agencies covering about 96% of the U.S. population. 

Participation in the FBI’s crime data collection is voluntary for law enforcement agencies. The crime data itself only reflects crimes reported to police.

More than 15,000 agencies reported through the National Incident-Based Reporting System, which now covers nearly 90% of the population, according to the FBI. NIBRS, as the system is known, is the agency’s new, more detailed crime reporting system. It became the national standard in 2021.

The FBI’s early data aligns with projections from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice, which in January forecasted that 2025 may have had the lowest homicide rate in more than a century.

Both violent and non-violent crime levels in most of the cities studied in the council’s analysis also were at or below pre-pandemic levels.

Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at awatford@stateline.org.

Americans’ views on crime often don’t match reality — and a new report suggests those perceptions are shaped as much by personal experiences and economic conditions as by crime itself.

The analysis, released by the nonprofit think tank Council on Criminal Justice, draws on decades of Gallup survey data to examine how people perceive crime and what drives those beliefs. The report’s authors found that, since the 1960s, public perceptions of crime have frequently diverged from actual crime trends.

Even during periods when crime declined, most Americans continued to believe it was rising. From 2005 to 2024, about 69% of survey respondents on average said crime was higher than the year before, despite overall crime rates falling in most of those years, according to the report.

Fear of crime has remained relatively stable over time. In 2024, 35% of Americans said they were afraid to walk alone at night — the same share as in 1968.

The researchers found that public concern tends to track major shifts in homicide rates more closely than broader crime trends. But overall, people’s views about crime and their fear of it have not matched shifts in crime rates for most years, according to the report.

Instead, the analysis points to other factors that shape how Americans think about public safety.

Household victimization — whether someone in the home has been a victim of a crime — was one of the strongest predictors of both fear and the belief that crime is increasing. 

Property crimes, such as theft, and people’s own experiences with crime were more closely tied to concerns about the issue than actual violent crime rates.

Economic sentiment also played a role. People who said it was a good time to find a job or expected to spend the same or more on holiday shopping were less likely to say crime was rising and less likely to report fear of walking alone at night, according to the report.

Political views showed a more limited effect. While people with more conservative ideologies were somewhat more likely to perceive crime as increasing, political party affiliation itself was not a significant factor after accounting for economic conditions and other variables.

Higher presidential and congressional approval ratings were associated with a greater likelihood that respondents said crime was staying the same or declining, according to the report.

Local conditions, meanwhile, were more closely linked to personal fears than to perceptions of crime overall. The researchers found that neighborhood factors, such as poverty and youth population, were associated with whether people said they were afraid, but did not generally influence whether they believed crime was rising locally or nationally.

Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at awatford@stateline.org.