Americans’ views on crime often don’t match reality — and a new report suggests those perceptions are shaped as much by personal experiences and economic conditions as by crime itself.

The analysis, released by the nonprofit think tank Council on Criminal Justice, draws on decades of Gallup survey data to examine how people perceive crime and what drives those beliefs. The report’s authors found that, since the 1960s, public perceptions of crime have frequently diverged from actual crime trends.

Even during periods when crime declined, most Americans continued to believe it was rising. From 2005 to 2024, about 69% of survey respondents on average said crime was higher than the year before, despite overall crime rates falling in most of those years, according to the report.

Fear of crime has remained relatively stable over time. In 2024, 35% of Americans said they were afraid to walk alone at night — the same share as in 1968.

The researchers found that public concern tends to track major shifts in homicide rates more closely than broader crime trends. But overall, people’s views about crime and their fear of it have not matched shifts in crime rates for most years, according to the report.

Instead, the analysis points to other factors that shape how Americans think about public safety.

Household victimization — whether someone in the home has been a victim of a crime — was one of the strongest predictors of both fear and the belief that crime is increasing. 

Property crimes, such as theft, and people’s own experiences with crime were more closely tied to concerns about the issue than actual violent crime rates.

Economic sentiment also played a role. People who said it was a good time to find a job or expected to spend the same or more on holiday shopping were less likely to say crime was rising and less likely to report fear of walking alone at night, according to the report.

Political views showed a more limited effect. While people with more conservative ideologies were somewhat more likely to perceive crime as increasing, political party affiliation itself was not a significant factor after accounting for economic conditions and other variables.

Higher presidential and congressional approval ratings were associated with a greater likelihood that respondents said crime was staying the same or declining, according to the report.

Local conditions, meanwhile, were more closely linked to personal fears than to perceptions of crime overall. The researchers found that neighborhood factors, such as poverty and youth population, were associated with whether people said they were afraid, but did not generally influence whether they believed crime was rising locally or nationally.

Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at awatford@stateline.org.

Wisconsin’s highest court ruled Wednesday that Pabst Brewing Co. owes millions in damages to the survivors of a worker employed by a second company who died from a cancer related to asbestos in the Pabst brewery in Milwaukee.

The deceased employee — a steamfitter hired to remove asbestos insulation from piping in the facility — worked for an independent contractor, not directly for Pabst.

But Pabst  was sufficiently aware of the dangers of asbestos on its premises to be held responsible under Wisconsin’s workplace safety law, known as the safe place statute, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Dallet wrote in the 5-2 decision. The ruling upheld the circuit court’s award of nearly $7 million to the estate of steamfitter Gerald Lorbiecki.

“As the owner of the brewery, Pabst owed a non-delegable duty under the safe-place statute to frequenters on the premises, a category that includes employees of independent contractors like Lorbiecki,” wrote Dallet. She was joined by Chief Justice Jill Karofsky and Justices Brian Hagedorn, Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford.

Lawyers for Pabst had argued that the brewery wasn’t responsible for the hazard because Lorbiecki’s employer had directed the work, not Pabst. In a dissent, Justices Annette Ziegler and Rebecca Bradley agreed, writing that the Court majority “fails to correctly analyze the law regarding a building owner’s liability to an independent contractor’s employee.”

The asbestos only became a hazard because of the work that Lorbiecki and his coworkers were doing, Ziegler argued.

The repair work took place during the mid-1970s, according to the ruling. “At the Pabst brewery, steamfitters cut out existing insulated pipes and replaced them,” Dallet wrote — a procedure that involved “thousands of pounds of insulation” that would be torn off “many miles” of asbestos-insulated pipe, according to circuit court testimony.  The brewery closed in 1996.

Lorbiecki developed mesothelioma in 2017 and sued Pabst and several other contractors and businesses. After he died his widow and his estate took over as the plaintiffs. His widow later died and their son assumed that role.

By the time the case went to trial, claims against the other companies, including Lorbiecki’s employer, had been dismissed, leaving only Pabst.

Pabst asked the lower court to throw out the case on several grounds, including that Lorbiecki worked for an independent contractor rather than Pabst.

The judge denied the company’s summary judgment petition. The jury awarded $6.5 million for Lorbiecki’s injuries and illness. Jurors also awarded $20 million in punitive damages.

Under state law, a portion of the compensatory damages were capped. State law also caps punitive damages at twice the amount of compensatory damages.

After calculating that Pabst was responsible for 42% of the compensatory damages, the judge calculated the total award at $6,986,906, including $4,657,937 in punitive damages.

The Wisconsin 2nd District Appeals Court in Milwaukee held in a May 2024 decision that the punitive damages should be calculated based on the total amount of compensatory damages — $5.5 million — not just the portion applied to Pabst. That would result in punitive damages of more than $11 million.

The Supreme Court ruling Wednesday reversed that portion of the appeals court ruling, however. Punitive damages in the case should reflect only Pabst’s portion of the compensatory damages — $2.3 million — Dallet wrote, yielding the punitive damages as the lower court originally calculated them.