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The Massachusetts utility regulator trying to orchestrate a shift away from gas

In this episode, I'm joined by James Van Nostrand. He is the top utility regulator in Massachusetts, the first state to explicitly tell gas utilities to plan their own phase-out. We explore this complex transition, including the fate of existing gas infrastructure, the potential of networked geothermal as an alternative, and protections for both workers and ratepayers.

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David Roberts

Greetings, everyone. This is Volts for February 21, 2025, "The Massachusetts utility regulator trying to orchestrate a shift away from gas." I'm your host, David Roberts. The state of Massachusetts has some extremely ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals โ€” 50 percent cuts from 1990 levels by 2030, net zero by 2050 โ€” and hitting them will involve rapid, concerted action on the part of both natural gas and power utilities. Basically, power utilities need to think about how to handle substantially more load, while gas utilities need to think about how to gradually wind themselves out of business.

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Guiding them along this tricky path will be the state's utility regulator, the Department of Public Utilities (DPU). Listeners who need a reminder of the importance of public utility commissions should go back and listen to my pod with Charles Hua.

Last year, the DPU issued an extensive and (to my knowledge) unprecedented proceeding on the Future of Gas, which directly addressed, or at least began the process of working through, a variety of thorny questions around how to shift residential consumers from gas to electric heating while holding their costs down.

James Van Nostrand
James Van Nostrand

The orchestrator of this complex process is the current Commissioner of the DPU, James Van Nostrand, a longtime energy expert and law professor who runs the Center for Energy and Sustainable Development at West Virginia University College of Law. He's also the author of a book called "The Coal Trap: How West Virginia Was Left Behind in the Clean Energy Revolution."

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Van Nostrand has been around energy regulation his entire life โ€” he is the son of an energy regulator โ€” so no one understands better than him exactly what utility regulators do, what impact it has, and what Massachusetts is trying to pull off. I can't wait to talk to him.

With no further ado, James Van Nostrand, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

James Van Nostrand

Thank you, David. Thanks for the opportunity to join you.

David Roberts

I've got tons of questions for you, but I want to start at a general level. So, I want to give people a sense of how much of what you do on the DPU is simply implementing what the legislature says, and then how much do you have some latitude to do sort of policy thinking on your own? So, maybe just start by saying, sort of like, what are the kind of legislative mandates under which you are working here? What are the big targets you have been assigned to help reach?

James Van Nostrand

Probably, the biggest one is in the area of greenhouse gas reductions. Back in 2008, the legislature enacted the Global Warming Solutions Act.

David Roberts

2008?

James Van Nostrand

Yes, and then subsequent climate bills directed the Office of Energy Environmental Affairs to produce a clean energy and climate plan which includes sector sub-limits. So, we have the overall Net Zero by 2050 from the Global Warming Solutions Act, and then we have, under the Clean Energy Climate Plan, sector limits in terms of greenhouse gas reduction. For example, when we issued the order in our Future of Gas docket 20-80, it was really looking at, "Okay, we need to put the local gas distribution companies on a path to achieve those sector limits that were set forth in the Clean Energy and Climate Plan." So that's a pretty clear directive. The legislature says we need to achieve these greenhouse gas limits, but then, okay, they turn it over to us to figure out how we're going to get there.

But the policy direction and the goals were pretty much enacted there. And so, that provided the framework. But then, it's largely up to us how to get there.

David Roberts

That's... I mean, that leaves you a pretty wide โ€”

James Van Nostrand

Oh, yeah.

David Roberts

a wide field of play. So, you are then โ€” I mean, I just want people to grasp this โ€” you're not just approving or disapproving rate cases here. This is a much more sort of active policy development and interaction thing that's going on here in Massachusetts.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah, there are some things where we're giving some pretty clear direction. And I think the legislature in Massachusetts is fairly active in terms of prescribing things that it wants done and how. But there is still a lot of discretion that's afforded us in figuring out how to get there.

David Roberts

Right. So, let's talk about the future of gas then. I'm not sure that this has gotten out to a national audience that this happened at all. It's kind of a big deal, as far as I know, and correct me if I'm wrong, is Massachusetts the first and to my knowledge only state to sort of explicitly say, "We're winding down gas, we're figuring out a plan to slowly wind down and get rid of gas?" Is that unique as far as you know?

James Van Nostrand

I think we're probably the furthest along of any state in the country in terms of having those statutory targets and directing the LDCs (Local Distribution Companies) that we need to be on a path to achieve those targets, the net zero targets by 2050. Yeah.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's a pretty big deal. So, I think when I tell people that this is happening, they have a bunch of immediate questions. Let's get to the immediate ones that occur to people first, which is: how many utilities โ€” you oversee gas and electric utilities, yes? Water too?

James Van Nostrand

And water, yes.

David Roberts

And water. So, give us a sense of how many entities we're talking about here. Like, how many electric utilities are involved in Massachusetts?

James Van Nostrand

Three electric utilities: Eversource, National Grid, and Unitil. There are a couple of different divisions of some of these utilities, but just generally, we have three electric utilities and five local gas distribution companies. Eversource, Unitil, and National Grid have both natural gas and electric. And then we have a couple of LDCs, local gas distribution companies that are gas only, Berkshire and Liberty.

David Roberts

Sort of a tractable number of entities we're dealing with here. So the first question that occurs to people when I say, "Yeah, Massachusetts is winding down gas," which is there are a bunch of gas utilities that exist to distribute and sell gas to people. What happens to those companies? Right, and I think there's a difference here. You just sort of touched on it in passing. But there are utilities that do both electric and gas, which you can easily imagine those simply moving their gas customers over to electricity and you know, all is well still their business, but they're also a couple of just dedicated gas utilities.

So, what are we telling these gas utilities? Are you just saying, "Plan to not exist in 2050 and plan accordingly"? What is supposed to happen to these utilities? I guess that is the question.

James Van Nostrand

I want to start off by emphasizing that this is a very long-term plan. This is still 25 years out, but that is one of the things I think was made clear in the 20-80 order. And the fact that the Clean Energy Climate plan sets out these targets is where we need to be in 2050.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, it's implied in all the targets that all the states and all the utilities have. But it's one thing, you know, for this to be implied, and it's another thing to sort of just state it outright, which is, you know, it shouldn't be that big of a deal but is kind of a big deal just to state the consequences.

James Van Nostrand

The Clean Energy Climate Plan really sets out interim targets as well. No, it's very, very complicated in terms of how we actually accomplish this. As you noted, I think it's a little bit easier to solve when you have combination or dual fuel utilities that just sell more electricity and sell less gas. In Massachusetts, it's a little bit more complicated because the utility service areas don't necessarily overlap neatly. So, you might have Eversource providing electricity and National Grid providing the gas. And then, like I say, we have the two standalone LDCs.

David Roberts

LDC is just for listeners?

James Van Nostrand

Local gas distribution companies.

David Roberts

But they're aware that they're going to wind down over time, wind down their operations in Massachusetts? And they are, they've taken that on board and accepted that fact?

James Van Nostrand

I can't say for how much they're accepting it. I mean, I think it's very clear from the order. One of the things I said when we issued the order, which came out in December of 2023, is that I don't think there should be seen as many surprises in here. What we're doing is implementing the greenhouse gas sector limits that have been given to us. My job as a regulator is to put the local gas distribution companies on a path to get there. There shouldn't be any surprises here. And we know we have 25 years to sort this out.

But I mean, one of the things that we can talk about with the 20-80 order, there was a future gas docket. We're requiring the local gas distribution companies, the LDCs, to file climate compliance plans beginning in April every five years. So, show us how you're on a pathway to get there. So, that process will start, I think, to make it very clear what our expectations are and we'll see how those first round of climate compliance plans look. But I think that really forces them to think about, "Okay, how are we actually going to get there? How does, what does this wind down look like?

David Roberts

Well, in the Future of Gas docket, in the intro kind of list, the six big buckets, the six big things you're trying to do here, number four is "Manage gas embedded infrastructure and cost recovery," which is a big question everybody also has. Massachusetts has, you know, thousands of miles of natural gas pipelines that are actively distributing gas. Who is on the hook for, you know, if you shut those down as opposed to, you know, reusing them or finding something to do with them? If you just shut them down, somebody's got to eat a lot of cost.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah.

David Roberts

How do you think about that?

James Van Nostrand

Well, one of the things we made very clear in the 20-80-B order is that nothing we do here is going to imperil the recovery of all that existing investment. I mean, there's the regulatory compact. Those investments were made, they were prudently incurred. And I'm not going to suggest that we're doing anything to suggest that you're not going to recover those costs because there's no finding of imprudence. What we did say very clearly, going forward, we want to discourage any additional investment in natural gas infrastructure. We want to discourage that. So we made it clear that before you make any additional investments in natural gas infrastructure, you need to show that you performed a non-gas pipeline alternative or an NPA analysis.

Is there a way that you could accomplish this without putting additional investment in the ground? So, we just wanted to lay that burden on the utilities. You need to show your work, show us that you considered alternatives that would avoid putting additional investment in the ground. It's very similar on the electric side, the non-wires alternatives. Right before you invest more money in T&D infrastructure, show us that you considered non-wires alternatives. And so, we lay that out. And of course, there are a couple of different pathways. Electrification, whether either ground source heat pumps or air source heat pumps or energy efficiency.

How can you get there? And right now, the utilities are working on that framework. We turned them loose and said, "Work it out with the stakeholders." And so, they're working on that now. We're expecting to see that any day now. But it's going to be part of the climate compliance plans that we expect the utilities to come back and show us what is your MPA framework. Your analysis for considering whether there are non-pipeline alternatives. Because that's a real critical part of how this all fits together is to just get them thinking you need to be looking at different ways of accomplishing this.

David Roberts

Well, I heard from a couple of activists in Massachusetts that they're still out there, fighting several natural gas expansion projects. So, it sounds like if the expansion is slowing, it's maybe not yet visible. When is that going to kind of bite?

James Van Nostrand

Yeah, some of those are FERC certified pipelines. The open season process where they can say, "Hey, we're thinking about building a pipeline. Who wants capacity?" I'm somewhat frustrated. The fact that we still have compounded annual growth rates in our forecast gas and supply plans in excess of 1%, like 1.5% . These utilities are still adding new gas customers. And I don't know how you make the case that "Oh, we're going to get to net zero by 2050, but we're going to continue adding new gas customers." So, one of the things that we've said in 20-80 we're going to look at is the policy for line extension allowances.

David Roberts

Oh, let me just make a note here for listeners too. When you refer to 20-80, that is the number of the Future of Gas ruling proceeding.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah, that was DPU 20. So the order is 20-80-B. That's the order that we issued in December of 2023. And so we said, "Hey, there's a bunch of things we're going to be doing to implement this order." One of them is to look at line extension allowances. And, you know, out in the Northwest, Oregon and Washington have already done things to direct the local gas distribution company to stop providing allowances when a new customer wants to hook up. They say, "Oh, it's going to cost $10,000 to do that. But based on the throughput and based on the lifetime of this investment, we're going to give you an allowance of $8,000 to help you cover that cost."

So, you only owe us $2,000." They tend to make very generous, optimistic assumptions about the throughput. We're revisiting that right now. As we told the local gas distribution company, "File your line extension policies or contributions in native construction. File those policies." We're going to look at whether or not it makes sense to continue providing an allowance. Are we still in that? Do customers all still benefit by providing additional, having additional customers on the grid? That was certainly the case many years ago. We're all better off by adding more customers and spreading those fixed costs over...

Is that still the case? We're looking at that because that's one way that you potentially cut off new growth. We're not going to give you a generous allowance anymore. But it's to be determined. We teed that up as something that we need to consider. There's just a whole range of actions that we need to take to implement that order, and that's one of them.

David Roberts

So, if they turn in plans that you deem insufficiently ambitious, which kind of just between us seems inevitable, what power do you have? Do you have the power to materially force them to do things? What's your sort of police power here? What is the risk to them for going weak on these plans?

James Van Nostrand

There'll be adjudications. Each utility will have an adjudicatory proceeding to review those plans. We'll review them and issue an order accepting, or we could just reject them or say, "Your plan is deficient for the following reasons."

David Roberts

One of the things you're telling utilities is, "Let's try to actively get customers electrified here and decarbonized." This runs into, I think, a renewable energy problem that people are just starting to grapple with. When you're up north, you're in a cold climate, there's a lot of heating load in the winter. If you move all that load from natural gas to electricity, suddenly you have a ginormous new winter load, and you might not have the generation or the grid to handle it. How are you thinking about that? What do you see as the technological way forward here to get everybody off gas, residential wise and small businesses?

James Van Nostrand

In terms of the loads, we're still summer peaking in Massachusetts. What the utilities are showing in their electric sector modernization plans is that they're not going to be winter peaking until probably 2035, 2036. I think maybe Unitil is 2033. So, we have some headroom there by the fact that there's existing capacity because the system right now is designed to serve summer peak. That's really helpful. But going back to what did the legislature direct us to do? Well, the 2022 climate bill required the electric distribution companies to file electric sector modernization plans or ESMPs.

Those were filed with us last January. We had seven months to look at them. That's where the electric distribution companies are telling us, "This is all the additional T&D infrastructure we're going to need to build in order to accommodate EV charging, electric heat pumps, integration of new solar and battery storage." So that's pretty much what those dockets show; the load will pretty much double by 2050. It's because of electrification. That's what we're doing to decarbonize. We need to have electric heat pumps, we need to have EV chargers. The electric distribution company is saying, "Here's the stuff we're going to have to build in order to be able to accommodate that plus integration of solar and battery storage facilities."

David Roberts

How much control do you have over their transmission plans? Because a lot of those are big plans, multi-state plans, regional type plans. Like, if Massachusetts utilities need a bunch more transmission to get the power they need to do this, do they have the power to get it? Do you have the power to get it?

James Van Nostrand

Well, there's transmission that's done more on a regional planning basis. That's ISO New England. I think the New England states have done really well over the last few years of pushing ISO New England to do long-term transmission planning with state goals in mind.

David Roberts

Yeah, I was going to ask about your relationship with ISO New England. Do you feel like they're a good partner in this?

James Van Nostrand

We're getting there. I mean, I tell you, the nice thing about this job is my boss is the Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs, Secretary Tepper, and she has an amazing team. We have a person, Jason Marshall, who really handles the stuff at the ISO New England level. I don't have to spend as much time doing that as probably PUC chairs in other states because it's all being handled at that level and that's just an amazing team. But I think there are good things and bad, but we're getting there. I mean, there's a lot of challenges in terms of the transmission build-out.

I think one of the things that we're seeing around the country is the amount of transmission spending that doesn't have much effective oversight. That's a big concern for state regulators because that's just a pass-through. I mean, those FERC transmission rates are just a pass-through. We want to make sure there's oversight of these asset conditioning projects that tend to go below the radar, but they add up. You're seeing some states that are getting very active on the transmission planning front. But I think it's working pretty well because we have a very good organization of New England states that's very involved at ISO New England to really push the planning process to accommodate state policy goals.

David Roberts

So, if you want a bunch more power in winter, there's a limited set of options: You can get a bunch more transmission to bring it in from outside the region, you can do a bunch more storage, or a bunch more local DER generation. But one intriguing way to heat a bunch of homes electrically but without a huge load is these thermal networks that were discussed on Volts a few weeks ago. These are sort of like shallow geothermal, they bring heat out of the shallow earth. You drill these boreholes to bring the heat up and then basically all the neighborhood is connected.

It's just like a natural gas network, except it's carrying hot water rather than natural gas. The furnaces are replaced by heat pumps. Very excited about these. The Volts audience is very excited about these. One of the signal features of them is that they can heat a bunch of houses with relatively low electricity load. So, how are you approaching those? How are you thinking about those? From what I can tell from the docket, the Future of Gas docket, you are putting quite a bit of weight on those, like making quite a big bet on those.

James Van Nostrand

Well, we definitely made the decision in that docket that electrification is the primary pathway. We're not looking at blending in RNG or blending in hydrogen. We're going to be electrifying. And that would include both air source heat pumps and ground source heat pumps. We required the utilities, the gas utilities, by next March, to file demonstration projects with electrification projects. And those will include both air source heat pumps and ground source heat pumps. But as you know from talking to Zeyneb Magavi and Eric Bosworth on the show, Eversource has this project in place in Framingham which is the first utility-scale network geothermal project in the country.

It's very exciting. And there are a lot of attractive aspects of network geothermal. I mean, one is, as you mentioned, it's so much more efficient because the coefficient of efficiency is so much higher. So the peak loads are lower, which means we don't have to build as much T&D infrastructure to accommodate them because they're so much more efficient, which means fewer electrons go through the ISO New England market. So the market clearing price is potentially lower. So there are grid benefits, but also from a workforce transition piece, which we're really mindful of. What's the just transition for the fossil fuel workers?

Well, I've toured the project in Framingham a couple of times, and you're putting pipes down the middle of the street and you're running laterals out to houses. You're just running different stuff through the pipes. So, the workforce transition aspects of network geothermal are very attractive. And that's back to the bigger picture. What are we telling these gas distribution companies? Well, the legislature in Massachusetts specifically authorized them to get into the network geothermal business. And it's very attractive for those workforce transition issues.

David Roberts

Should we worry that National Grid canceled its thermal network pilot in Lowell, Massachusetts? I believe because they said it was too expensive.

James Van Nostrand

It's a little worrisome. But these are demonstration projects. It's lessons learned. They ran into, I think, more ledge, which is the hard rock, than they anticipated. But that's the lessons learned. They're moving forward with the Boston Housing Authority project at Franklin Fields Apartments. So that's moving forward. But we're at the early stage of this and we don't want to be unwisely spending ratepayer dollars and give network geothermal a bad image because we're chasing a project where the numbers just don't work. And so, National Grid briefed us and said, "We don't think this makes sense with these numbers and the level of participation."

And so, they're still moving forward. But National Grid, last month, late December, filed with us an electrification demonstration project for two environmental justice communities, Leominster and Winthrop. And so, they're moving forward with what we asked them to do in the Future of Gas, the 20-80 order was a demonstration project by March of 2026. Well, they filed one in December.

David Roberts

Is that going to be mostly air source heat pumps?

James Van Nostrand

Yes.

David Roberts

Yeah, you know, a lot of people, when discussing the future of gas, let's just say, I'll put it this way. When the gas companies discuss the future of gas, a frequent topic that comes up is renewable natural gas, as you said, which is natural gas derived from agricultural operations, landfills.

James Van Nostrand

Right.

David Roberts

Et cetera, et cetera. The gas companies have this idea that, like, "Oh, we'll keep our infrastructure in place, and we'll just inject some renewable natural gas which will bring down the average carbon intensity of the gas." Or same thing with hydrogen: "We'll synthesize some clean hydrogen, inject it and bring down the carbon intensity of the gas." I think among energy types, the consensus here is that this is ludicrous and never going to work. And that seems to be what you concluded. But I don't know if it is worth saying something about that, like, how much time did you spend on that? Or why did you end up rejecting it?

James Van Nostrand

I mean, that's fair to say. I think we were fairly skeptical. We definitely did not want to encourage, "Oh, we're just going to blend in some hydrogen or RNG, and it's going to be business as usual" because we just don't think RNG can be scaled up enough. It's going to be very expensive. At the same time, though, I don't want to take anything off the table because I think we're still learning about hydrogen and I think there may be some hard-to-electrify industrial uses where we're still going to have to have some gas running through the pipe.

But, I think we wanted to make it very clear that we don't see that as, you know, business as usual for residential and commercial heating. It's going to be, you know, we have to go down a different path.

David Roberts

What's the โ€” I forget who did the analogy, but someone compared putting hydrogen into your residential natural gas pipelines to pouring champagne into your municipal water supply.

James Van Nostrand

It doesn't seem to make sense, but obviously, we have all these hydrogen hubs and we're spending lots of billions of dollars exploring the possible uses of hydrogen. So, we don't want to take anything off the table because there are still some hard-to-electrify industrial uses. Although, I think those uses are getting, with the continuing technological developments, it seems like the hard-to-electrify industrial uses are getting smaller in number all the time.

David Roberts

That category shrinks, yeah, with every passing day.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah.

David Roberts

One thing a lot of people brought up when I raised the prospect of talking to you is just affordability. Massachusetts has pretty high electricity rates. How do you think about simultaneously engineering this sort of mass transition to newer technologies while at the same time trying to bring down costs? Like, how do you think about affordability?

James Van Nostrand

I mean, that's exactly what we were looking at once I started getting into the Future of Gas docket in 20-80. And I think with our aggressive climate goals and my sense of urgency about addressing climate change, we need to move forward full steam ahead on addressing climate change by meeting these greenhouse gas targets. That being said, how are we going to address affordability? So, about 13 months ago, we started what we call the Energy Burden docket, which is docket 24-15, where we looked at: can we design our rates to make it more affordable for the varying levels of income that we have in the state?

A number of states have a percentage of income payments. A number of states have tier discounts. So, we opened a proceeding to look at that, because the way it was for most utilities is you either get the discount or you don't. The discount is 32%, 40%. And what National Grid did in the case that we just approved this last fall was they implemented tiered discounts, five tiers, basically. So, the lower the income, the higher the discount. The higher the income, the lower the discount. And that's one solution that I think has a lot of promise.

David Roberts

This was National Grid's idea, not your idea. They brought it to you.

James Van Nostrand

They knew we were looking at it, but I think they looked at the issue of this cliff where you get a 32% discount or 40%, and all of a sudden you just popped over 60% of the SMI, this median income state median income, and now you get nothing. And so, they recognized that and so they spent a lot of time studying it, but they made a filing and they spent a lot of time developing those tiers. And we tweaked it a little bit, but we pretty much approved it.

David Roberts

Am I right then, that if like they still have to recover the same amount of money?

James Van Nostrand

Yes.

David Roberts

So if low-income ratepayers are being given a discount, does that imply that higher-income ratepayers are paying a little extra to cover that?

James Van Nostrand

Yes, the revenue requirement is going to be the same. The utility has to recover a certain amount of dollars. That's what we said in the rate case. But then, how that's allocated among the customers. And so, basically, the bigger the discounts you give, then the more of an under-recovery that needs to be recovered. And we do it from all ratepayers, basically. But obviously, if you're not getting any discount at all, you're going to end up paying more. That's how it works.

David Roberts

Is that something that you think the other utilities might follow suit?

James Van Nostrand

Yes, I think we just had a technical session last week on this, and all the utilities are at the table, along with some really good witnesses from the Attorney General's office, from the National Law Conservation Center. I mean, some really good experts on this issue. It makes sense. And Eversource has designed a similar program in Connecticut. So, they shared their experience with us. It's complicated because you kind of go into it thinking, "Well, let's put the tiers here, the discounts here," but then you actually have to populate, based on the actual customer data, those tiers and figure out, because you might have a number in mind in terms of what is that under-recovery?

Are we okay with 3%? That's going to get spread to everybody, and then it may turn out to be a higher number or a lower number. So, you're kind of โ€” it's an iterative process. And then, the legislature in this climate bill that just got passed last year gave us the authority to provide discounts to moderate-income customers. So, we're looking at that as well because right now the cutoff is two times the federal poverty limit or 60% of the state median income. So, we asked for additional comment on what is moderate income? How would that look?

So, that's going to complicate a little bit more in terms of the income verification process. But I'm really optimistic. I think everybody's on the same page that we need to get this done. So, it's in place for National Grid and I think Unitil and Eversource and the local gas distribution companies will follow. But we need, we need to provide the guidance and develop an order saying, "Okay, here's the template," and then each utility will have to file to actually implement it.

David Roberts

Well, that kind of solves the problem in that it gives relief to lower-income ratepayers. But does that solve the larger problem of just like the amount of recovered money being high in the first place? Are costs being high in the first place? In particular, it seems like transmission costs are just skyrocketing everywhere and killing everyone. And so, is there anything that the utilities can do to bring down overall cost to reduce rates for everybody? Or are we just kind of in an era of rising costs structurally?

James Van Nostrand

I mean, we're looking at a lot of infrastructure costs with this transmission distribution build-out to accommodate electrification. There's no question about that. I mean, I think longer term, as we rely on renewable energy and we move away from high price and volatility associated with fossil fuels, this is a miserable experience that we had in Massachusetts with the global price of LNG doing what it did a couple years ago. And so that highlights the fact that we need to get off fossil fuels. So I think long term, wind and solar have zero fuel prices, fuel cost, right.

So, I think longer term, we're going in the right direction. And frankly, our job as regulators is making sure that utilities are doing all they can to hold down costs. So, when we look at when the utilities are implementing their electric sector modernization plans, we're going to make sure there were cheaper ways you could have done that. Much like the non-gas pipeline alternatives for the local gas distribution companies. It's not non-wires alternatives, it's virtual power plants. We don't want you to build any more transmission distribution infrastructure than you absolutely have to. So, our job as regulators is making sure that they're not building more than they have to and that's how we keep costs down.

And obviously, we provide very close oversight in the rate cases when they file them periodically.

David Roberts

Before we leave behind the subject of rates, another tool that I think the clean energy world has come to see as sort of key in this battle is the fact that electricity is worth more at different times of day and in different geographical areas. Temporally and geographically, it varies, but rates tend to be historically flat, volumetric, not reflecting that differing value. Have you encouraged your utilities to implement time or place varying rates, sort of more dynamic rates? Is that on your radar?

James Van Nostrand

Definitely. It requires advanced metering infrastructure and smart meters, which we're going to be rolling out for Eversource over the next three years and National Grid over the next three years. So, four years from now, that advanced metering infrastructure should be in place across the state with smart meters. Then we can roll out the time varying rates so we can send customers those price signals, and then because that's going to help us manage the peaks, right? That's going to help us avoid unnecessary transmission distribution infrastructure. If we can send strong price signals to customers through time varying rates and then expect them to manage their loads or, you know, there's lots of products out there to help customers manage their loads seamlessly.

But that's really tied into the affordability issue, is time varying rates and managing the loads.

David Roberts

You know, there's the whole supply management side of things, but then there's the whole demand side of things management side of things.

James Van Nostrand

Definitely.

David Roberts

And that requires those smart meters, that requires that knowledge of that granular knowledge of what's going on in there. So, actually, Governor Healey signed a law in November, I believe, that among other things, called for a statewide depository of this information from these advanced meters. Do you know when that goes live, that data repository? Because, you know, a lot of utilities โ€” this is something we've podcasted here on Volts about also โ€” a lot of utilities have this information, but they just don't share it or won't share it in a useful format. They're very proprietary over it. What's the status of that?

James Van Nostrand

Data access is an issue that we're looking at because I think we're going to be spending a lot of money on the advanced metering infrastructure and the smart meters to give customers those pricing options. A lot of customers just don't want to spend the time messing around with it. They need some interface. Right. A third party is going to come in there and say, "I'm going to do all these things with your thermostat or just do these things to smart-charge your car in the middle of the night without you having to do that yourself."

But that means all this stuff needs to fit together, and it's interoperability, it's digitalization. So, we're looking very closely at that because as we're spending these massive amounts of dollars on advanced metering infrastructure, we want to make sure the utilities are taking advantage of the latest technology. So, when these products are rolled out, that will help customers manage their energy costs. These things all work together. But, data access is a big deal. And, having been on the utility side of the fence for a number of years, I mean it's confidential customer-specific information, and we don't like to let that out.

And then, you have cybersecurity issues to make sure that it can't get hacked. But it's definitely part of the discussions because these things, it's not going to happen if the other players. Because what we don't want is the utilities to be sort of the gatekeepers of technology. So, the other players need to have access to the customer information. But, we got to work that out so that it's done in a responsible way.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, that's basically the premise of the whole demand-side market, the whole virtual power plant market, all that stuff requires that information. Do you know specifically when that repository is going to exist?

James Van Nostrand

No, I don't know the date certain.

David Roberts

Let's talk about these transition plans, which I think are very interesting. So, there's a lot of pressure everywhere in the country to decarbonize and everybody's got their plans. States have plans, utilities have plans. But this is interesting because you are telling each individual utility, "Make it explicit, tell us what you're going to do." So, what have you told them that those plans must include? Like, what do you expect them to look like? And have you seen them yet? And what's your take on the enthusiasm of their compliance thus far?

James Van Nostrand

These are the climate compliance plans for the local gas?

David Roberts

No, the electric sector.

James Van Nostrand

Oh, electric sector modernization plans?

David Roberts

Yeah. Are these different? The gas utilities have to have plans, and the electric utilities also have to have plans. Are those separate plans?

James Van Nostrand

Yes, they're separate plans. The climate compliance plans come out of our Future of Gas docket. So every five years beginning in April, and then on top of that, we have this LNG import facility right here in Everett, the Everett Marine Terminal. And so we had four of the LDC's local gas station distribution companies are off-takers of that. So it was going to otherwise close down once the Mystic Power plant closed down. And because we need, I think the Everett Marine Terminal is a pretty strategic asset because it can put LNG directly into the wholesale pipelines right there.

And also, the vapor can go right into the National Grid distribution system, and there's also truck loading facilities right there. So, as an insurance policy, because if we do have an extended cold snap, we were convinced that we needed to keep the Everett Marine Terminal open. But as part of the orders that we issued in May of last year approving six-year contracts, those utilities who are off-takers from the Everett Marine Terminal have to file every year. It's kind of another aspect of the climate compliance plans. But what are you doing between now and when those contracts run out in the spring of 2030?

What are you doing to reduce your reliance on the Everett Marine Terminal? So, it's very similar in terms of the climate compliance plans, but focused more on when do we need the Everett Marine Terminal. What particular uses or neighborhoods or geographic areas are we increasing our reliance on the Everett Marine Terminal, and how can we phase that out? So, that's another aspect.

David Roberts

So, you're trying to make that into a kind of backup or last resort rather than a main source.

James Van Nostrand

It's a very expensive insurance policy. Because the fear was, without the Everett Marine Terminal, if you have an extended cold snap and we're going to be trucking LNG over potentially long distances, it was risky. So, we decided we needed to step up and have the LDCs pay the insurance policy premiums to basically keep that thing open. But we don't want it to last any longer. We have an Office of Energy Transformation which the Governor, Governor Healey, Healey-Driscoll administration, created, being headed up by Melissa Lavinson. One of her three focus groups is on this very issue, working with the local gas distribution companies, really pressing them on their reliance on the Everett Marine Terminal.

What can we do to reduce that? So, that's going to be a part of the climate compliance plans that we get in April. There's going to be for those LDCs that are off-takers from EMT, there's going to be a separate discussion, and "Here are the things we're going to be doing." That's an annual requirement during the term of that contract. So, really complementary paths, but it's really helping get the message that we don't want to have to renew the contract to keep the Everett Marine Terminal open past 2030. So, we've got to reduce reliance.

David Roberts

This is all pretty remarkable. Are you not getting pushback from the gas utilities?

Like, are they, you know, sort of resigned that this is all inevitable and they're on board? Or do you feel like they're complying in good spirit? It feels like you'd get more fight.

James Van Nostrand

I mean, it's great having Melissa Lavinson on the team helping with this. She's got a lot of experience in the utility sector, and I think she can have more difficult conversations with them than I can in the context of what the Office of Energy Transformation is doing. But I think they're getting the message that we are very serious; we're going to do all we can to hit these targets. Massachusetts, I think, has had a long track record of being one of the leading states in the country in terms of addressing climate change. We take it very seriously.

I certainly take the urgent need to address climate change very seriously. So, I think they are getting the message and it's great to have that additional push from the Office of Energy Transformation helping us with these gas transition issues.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's good to have a united government. I will say the levels of government are on the same page.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah. The Healey-Driscoll administration has been great, and Secretary Tepper and the folks at EEA have been great. It's a great team, and we're all on the same page.

David Roberts

Well, what about these electric sector modernization plans? What do you want out of those?

James Van Nostrand

What those show is what's going to be spent over the next five and 10 years, and then over the next through 2050. I mean, it's been really helpful to think about what this decarbonization, what electrification actually looks like in terms of how many additional electric heat pumps do we need to accommodate? How many additional EV chargers, how many solar facilities, how many battery storage facilities? And just forcing the utilities to take that long-term look is how much is your load going to increase and where are we going to put these facilities? And then I think it gives us the opportunity to really push hard on sort of the non-wires alternatives, the virtual power plants.

Are there lower-cost options that you could be pursuing? And, I listened to the podcast you had with Cara Goldenberg because I've talked to her many times at RMI. I try to pick her brain whenever I can because she's one of the best people in the country on this issue. But, it's, "How can we put in incentive mechanisms so that our interests in achieving these clean energy goals are aligned with the utilities' financial interests?"

David Roberts

Right. This is performance โ€” this is for listeners who might not remember โ€” that was the pod about performance-based rate making, which is just โ€”

James Van Nostrand

Or regulation. Performance-based regulation.

David Roberts

Yeah, performance-based regulation, which is just compensating utilities based on their performance rather than just cranking stuff out the door.

James Van Nostrand

And we've been doing that for years and years in Massachusetts with multi-year rate plans and decoupling. And with the National Grid case, we actually put in place performance incentive mechanisms and said, "Here's a couple of things that will motivate the utility. They're aligned with our goals." We put a performance mechanism, incentive mechanism in place for integrating distributed energy resources.

David Roberts

Interesting.

James Van Nostrand

So, there's an upside and a downside. If you put a certain number of megawatts in there and if they exceed it, they get rewarded. If they fall way short, they get penalized. And the other thing was enrolling customers in these income-eligible, the discount programs. They did a great job of designing these tier discount rates. Now, go out and enroll your customers. And so, we put a performance incentive mechanism in place there that will reward them for getting low-income customers and income-eligible customers enrolled. Because these discounts don't do much good if we can't get the people who need them enrolled.

And I think the numbers showed out of 370,000 eligible customers in terms of the low-income discounts, only maybe 150,000 were currently enrolled. So we thought that was a good place to put in a performance and incentive mechanism. That's just another aspect of performance-based regulation that we really hadn't done much in Massachusetts. And another piece of performance-based regulation is service quality indices. Because we hold the utilities accountable, we take it very seriously. The frequency and duration of outages. And over the last 20 years, we've imposed penalties of $42 million against the distribution companies under our service quality standards.

So, I think we've got a pretty good track record on implementing performance-based regulation. The challenges are great with the billions of dollars that the utilities are proposing to spend on these electric sector modernization plans. To figure out how we can address what's obviously a bias of the utilities is to build more T&D, put it into rate base, and earn a return on it. How do we address that bias by including some sort of incentive mechanism? Because the tools that we have available are really not all that great.

It's a prudence review. Right. You've already built the thing and we decide, "Oh, there was a lower cost solution that you could have done and now we're going to disallow a portion of the cost." Well, it's already built, so that's not a great deal.

David Roberts

And you're dealing with counterfactuals, which are...

James Van Nostrand

Exactly, exactly. And it's very, very, very hard. The staff resources that it takes, and we've got a great staff at the DPU, but the staff resources that it would take to do a prudence review, to second-guess T&D infrastructure investments because it requires a lot of technical expertise. And utilities, they can out-resource us and they will.

David Roberts

Way better to get it right.

James Van Nostrand

Right. With the incentives. Which is where Cara Goldenberg and her team at RMI come into play. Yeah.

David Roberts

Another big complaint of electricity folks, including myself, is the interconnection queue. I think at this point, clean energy folks are familiar with this. Just like build a power plant, you apply to put it on the grid and then you wait for whatever, three to five to seven years. Do you have your hands on that at all? Do you have any control over that, how that works or any way of speeding that up?

James Van Nostrand

We do that. In fact, Secretary Tepper at EEA pretty much said 2025 is the year of interconnection for us. So, we identified at all three levels. I mean, at the power plant level, that's really mostly ISO New England, but we're very much involved in that process. Those interconnection queues to hook up a power plant are largely in control of ISO New England, but our New England states coordinate on that. And that interaction, I think, is working well. But at our level, we've got the integration of solar projects and battery storage projects. And that's where the ESMPs (electric sector modernization plans) come into play because it helps us identify where that infrastructure is going to be necessary in order to accommodate that.

And then we have interconnection just at the local level. So, you know, a home builder comes in and says, "I got this subdivision done. And the utility says they can't hook me up because they don't have any transformers." And so the home builder, "I can't close. Right. I can't get my money because โ€”" you know, and so we're dealing with that too. So at all three levels. And so at EEA we've set up an interconnection task force to attack that at all three levels. Again, just a great team. Mike Judge, the undersecretary, and then Josh Ryor, who works for him.

David Roberts

I'd be really interested to see the outcome of that process because, man, is that a thorny problem.

James Van Nostrand

It is. And it's, you know, with supply chain issues with the transformers. And for us, we've had a process of capital investment project, sort of a cluster study, kind of what FERC was proposing in some of its recent orders. We've been doing that. You know, when you have these upgrades that are necessary to accommodate a solar array, for example, you're also going to be improving the grid to some extent. So, some of those costs should be borne by customers, some of those costs should be borne by the developers. That's a very intensive process to figure out when you do these cluster studies.

But, we've been doing that. We issued a couple of orders this year approving eight of those capital investment projects. Four for National Grid and four for Eversource in the electric sector modernization plan going forward. Then, we have a long-term system planning process as part of that. But, that's where that comes into play is looking at where those DERs, those distributed energy resources, including the battery storage systems, where those are going to be integrated and what kind of infrastructure is necessary in order to accommodate that. So, we're on it.

David Roberts

Right. Well, in terms of figuring that stuff out, the DPU has created a new department within itself called the Division of Clean Energy and Resilience Engineering. Tell us what that is and whether you think other PUCs ought to follow suit.

James Van Nostrand

When we look at what are the things that we've always done and what's going to be different going forward, and so, looking at those work streams, one that really comes to mind is what everybody's calling "integrated energy planning." Where it's, you know, the gas utilities do their thing, the electric division does their thing.

David Roberts

It's all the same thing now.

James Van Nostrand

Here at the agency, we have an electric division and a gas division. But if we're going to accomplish this gas transition, you've got to figure out, "Okay, this is based on leak-prone pipe" or whatever characteristics. "This is an area of a gas service territory that we could potentially decommission. But does the electric company that serves that territory have the capability to take on that additional load?" So, that's a big aspect of what the Clean Energy and Resilience Engineering Division is going to do. And part of the electric sector modernization plan statute requires that utilities make investments that are going to improve the resiliency of the grid, being very mindful of climate change, extreme weather events.

And so, that's another piece of what that engineering team is going to do, is evaluate these electric sector modernization plans to make sure that the investments they're categorizing as resiliency investments really are improving the resilience.

David Roberts

And these are like engineering nerds, right? This is not an economy thing. It's not a prudence thing. This is about nuts and bolts and whether it works.

James Van Nostrand

And they help us analyze the capital investment projects in terms of that allocation of cost between the developers and the ratepayers. But no, it's basically all our engineers. And I think it's a tough market for higher-end engineers. I think that's going to give us a little bit of, "Hey, we're doing the cool new stuff here at the DPU. Come join us and work with this great new division for a few years." We're excited about it.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's pretty cool. That's a pretty cool job opportunity. And it really highlights to me one of the important things about the PUC discussion generally, which is just that, you know, it's not the sexiest topic, but just resourcing them adequately is, you know, you get a lot of what you want out of them just by resourcing them adequately, which I don't think most states do. The fact that you're starting teams of engineers suggests to me that maybe you are actually getting the support you need.

James Van Nostrand

The Healey-Driscoll administration has been very supportive because the legislature gives us these assignments. The electric sector modernization plans, as is a good example, the new siding and permitting bill. And now we've got to hire the people to implement that. And there's a recognition that, "Hey, we're giving you additional things to do and now we got to support you in your budget requests and personnel requests to make sure that you have the bodies to get this stuff done." The electric sector modernization plans, we had seven months from January to August to basically review probably 1500 pages of filings with the three initial and issue an order.

David Roberts

Yeah, you just need bodies, bodies in chairs to do that stuff.

James Van Nostrand

Right.

David Roberts

Another cool thing that Massachusetts did, that I don't think got really enough press, is that Governor Healey signed into law a bill that reforms siting and permitting. So this is, you know, the subject of immense angst among clean energy people nationally. Does that bump up against you at all? Are your hands on that at all? Does that help you at all?

James Van Nostrand

Our Siting Division here at the DPU pretty much serves as the staff for the Energy Facility Siting Board. So, we're going to be staffing up considerably because there's a recognition and electric sector modernization plan certainly highlighted that with the number of additional substations that need to be built and all the infrastructure and it's a sense of urgency about getting it done. And so, we need to streamline the process. So, the Governor appointed the team that's looking at the clean energy infrastructure siting and permitting process that met for months and months and months and came up with a consensus piece of legislation that got passed.

But it puts us on a stricter timeline for getting these things done. It's kind of a one-stop shopping thing in terms of not having to get local permits, but it's put a lot of pressure on us to hire enough people to process these things more quickly. Another exciting piece of it is the public engagement aspect of it because I think citing energy infrastructure projects kind of gets a bad name. It's like, "Oh, we've decided we need to build this substation and we're going to put it here. Now let's meet with the community and ask them what they want from us in order to put it there."

We need to move that process up in terms of public engagement. It's about doing things faster but also doing things better in terms of public engagement. So, we've got a new division of environmental justice and public participation that's really going to help that process.

David Roberts

It's just a good reminder that we don't have to wait for national action on this.

James Van Nostrand

We are not, not in Massachusetts.

David Roberts

States can do a lot of stuff on their own. Slightly random question, but you recently approved what's called the New England Clean Energy Connect, which as I understand it, is just a big fat power line bringing Canadian hydropower down to you. A, say a word about that. But B, what I actually was wondering most is, do the tariffs affect that? Because I feel like that's a big pipeline of cheap power that's going to be very helpful to you in keeping costs down.

And are you worried at all that it's not going to be as cheap as you thought?

James Van Nostrand

Yes, yes, we are. I mean, that's a good example of depending upon where the tariffs end up landing. But I think it's 10% on energy from Canada, but no, it's bringing 1,200 megawatts of electricity of cheap hydropower down from Canada over a 20-year period and that could be a 100 to 200 million dollars a year increase from what the price otherwise would be. Just because, guess what, that's energy coming from Canada. So it's going to be subject to a tariff. So it's something that will reduce costs and it will flow through the lower rates. But that benefit will shrink if those tariffs take effect.

David Roberts

I saw you had a ruling on what are called municipal aggregators. So, for listeners' benefit โ€” I think I've done a podcast on this a few years ago โ€” but basically, the idea is if a town wants to, it can basically opt out of utility procured power and procure its own power. Generally, I think it's done โ€” well, generally right now, people can get cheaper and cleaner power by doing it. I don't know how long that's going to last. But how do you think about โ€” you know, the worry in California, the worry I always hear from utility types in California is that like if all these towns are opting out, they're also opting out of the fixed grid costs.

Right. Which is just leaving fixed grid costs on a lower and lower number of customers. Do you worry about the utility death spiral? Do you worry about that getting out of hand? How do you think about the role of municipal aggregators?

James Van Nostrand

I know in California, I mean, it's still a vertically integrated state, so you've got the utilities who still own their power plants, right? And they're looking at, "Hey, we procured all these resources in order to serve a certain amount of load and now that load is disappearing." We don't have that problem being a restructured state in Massachusetts because the EDCs (electric distribution companies) are still going to be delivering the electrons. And it was just giving the municipalities the procurement ability to manage that supply themselves. And if they want to procure a higher percentage of renewables.

But it's a local control aspect of it. And it was a huge problem when I got here. I mean, literally, even before I started the job, I did kind of meet and greets with the two chairs of the utility committee on the telecommunications, utility, and energy committees. And they said the first thing they hit me, "You need to solve this municipal aggregation issue. Because we had applications that had been languishing for up to two and three years and โ€”

David Roberts

Oh, "solve" just means like "Hurry it up."

James Van Nostrand

Yeah, and I just signed off on one today. We are now doing it and we've committed to do them in less than 120 days. And we just approved one today that we're two weeks ahead of the 120-day deadline. We're now issuing four-page letter orders instead of 45-page orders, but we've cleared the backlog.

David Roberts

Am I right that most of them are getting cleaner power? Is that generally the motivation you see?

James Van Nostrand

Well, it's up to municipalities. They can decide to offer power that's more aggressive in terms of clean energy goals than basic supply. So, we still have a customer in Massachusetts who has three options. They can do nothing and just get the supply from their utility. They can do municipal aggregation through the municipality. I live in Cambridge, for example, they have a very good muni AG program. And then there's also competitive suppliers. We have vendors that will do โ€”

David Roberts

Right. You have retail.

James Van Nostrand

we have retail suppliers, which has been sort of problematic. The administration would like to stop retail suppliers in the residential sector. But, so long as it's there.

David Roberts

Really, do you want to unwind that restructuring and just undo that?

James Van Nostrand

That's the position that the administration is in. I mean, as long as it's there, as long as an option here at the DPU, I think we still have an obligation to protect customers and make sure it works. But there's just been a lot of abuses out there. The Attorney General has issued a couple of reports that just show some bad actors out there that just take advantage of customers.

David Roberts

And I don't โ€” I mean, this is just me editorializing โ€” but I've never seen any data or reports that really convince me that there are large savings to be had here. Like, it's the promise, the original promise of it doesn't seem to have particularly paid off.

James Van Nostrand

I think the savings are there, but it takes a lot of time to sort that out. You can do the analysis when you first sign up. Where customers are getting killed is in these automatic renewals. You get this teaser kind of a thing for a year or two and then that rolls off and all of a sudden you're paying 30, 40, 50 cents a kilowatt hour.

David Roberts

Just the same way you ended up subscribed to Paramount Plus, or whatever.

James Van Nostrand

Exactly.

David Roberts

You signed up for the cheap month, and then they โ€”

James Van Nostrand

Exactly. So, actually, our competitive supply team here at the DPU has got an idea in mind. And so, we're going to be rolling that out within probably about a month from now to see if we can try to solve it. But there's also the legislative solution, which is just, "Let's just pull the plug on competitive supply in the residential market." But either way, we've got to address it.

David Roberts

That's really interesting. So, you know, last year I interviewed the head of Connecticut. The relatively new head of Connecticut, Marissa, who's awesome, has come in and really shaken things up. She told utilities, "The cushy free ride is over. You have to actually โ€”" you know, she actually turned down a few requests for rate increases. And the reaction of the utilities in Connecticut, I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say, is hysterical. They have lost their minds. They're suing right and left. They're writing cease and desist letters.

They're hassling the governor to fire her. They're just like, it's a full-on tantrum. Which, I think, one of the things it reveals is that they are very used to what I think is still probably the general state of things, which is regulatory capture, which is like utilities have a hold on utility regulators. Either it's financial or just in many cases, they used to be employed. You know, they're trading employees back and forth. There's a lot of different ways the sort of regulatory capture works. And it looks like losing those privileges in Connecticut has driven them crazy.

So, I'm sort of wondering. Now that you're in this position, you probably have a clearer view of it. I wonder if you could just say a little bit about how you think regulatory capture works, how you try to avoid it, and whether, like for instance, Eversource is the utility in Connecticut โ€” that's one of the Connecticut losing its mind โ€” it also operates in Massachusetts. Is it also threatening you in Massachusetts, suing you, and trying to get Healey to fire you? Like, talk about all that.

James Van Nostrand

There's a lot there, David.

David Roberts

I know, I know. Sorry to drop that on you with five minutes to go.

James Van Nostrand

I think we strike the right regulatory balance. I think we've got consistency. I was in this business for 40 years. I spent 22 years in Seattle.

David Roberts

Your family was in the business.

James Van Nostrand

My father was a regulator in the state of Iowa, and I represented utilities in the northwest for 22 years. I also represented an environmental NGO and environmental non-governmental organization in New York. So, I've worn a lot of different hats. It's a complicated job. We really are balancing the interests of the utility, which has a fiduciary obligation to its shareholders to maximize profits. But our job is to โ€” I like to use the term, I think I stole it from John Rhodes, who is the former chair of the New York Commission: We are the stewards of the ratepayer dollar.

Our job is to protect the ratepayers and strike that balance so the utilities can still raise capital on reasonable terms, but customers can still get rates as low as possible, consistent with reliability andโ€”

David Roberts

Then, decarbonizing also in the midst of all that.

James Van Nostrand

Yeah, and I think we strike that balance in a little bit different way. I mean, it is troubling for me that the credit downgrade that Eversource is suffering in Connecticut is affecting Massachusetts ratepayers. That's not ideal for me because that does affect me and I didn't have any control over that. I don't think we're not regulating Eversource in a way that says that the credit risk is greater. But different regulators have different philosophies. But I think I bring to bear the years of experience I have. We've got two other great commissioners that work with me. We've got a great staff.

I think we're striking that balance in the right way. We're implementing performance-based regulation and we have done so for years. I think we've got a pretty good track record of continuity and I think that serves ratepayers in the long run; that consistency. The financial community knows. They pretty much know what they're going to get from Massachusetts regulators. I think we have a good relationship with the utilities, but we have candid conversations. We certainly don't have regulatory capture in Massachusetts. I think there's a pretty healthy dialogue and I can have some pretty candid conversations when there are things going on that I'm not particularly happy about.

But I think overall, we strike a pretty good balance.

David Roberts

All right, well, then final question. How long do you anticipate serving at the DPU? And are there big, like the Future of Gas thing, is big. Are there other big things you want to check off your list before you're done there?

James Van Nostrand

Well, my term on the commission is coterminous with Governor Healey, so that's through like January of 2027, and my term as chair is two years. And I don't have any reason to think I'm not going to be reappointed as chair. So, I'm going to serve that till January 2027. I tell you, the two big things are a lot right now. The Future of Gas and the electric sector modernization plans and this clean energy buildout. Those are very complicated. Yeah, it's really a lot to keep me busy. I think we're still making some progress just on transparency.

We've had a lot of customers expressing confusion about reading their bills and trying to figure out what's going up and why. I think we have accomplished a lot more in terms of public engagement and transparency, and just having more of our proceedings open to the public. I think we've come a long way on that, but there's no shortage of things to do.

David Roberts

All right, James Van Nostrand, thanks so much for coming on. It's fascinating getting a peek inside utility commissions and all the many, many, many things you're busy with. So thanks for walking us through it.

James Van Nostrand

Thank you, David. It's been great.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

What YIMBYs are learning from their victories across the country

In this episode I'm joined by Annemarie Gray and Felicity Maxwell to discuss how the YIMBY movement is finally cracking the code on housing reform in major American cities. We examine the recent groundbreaking victories in New York City and Austin, exploring how pro-housing groups are learning from each other through networks like Welcoming Neighbors Network, and wrestle with the challenge of increasing housing supply while protecting existing communities.

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Text transcript:

David Roberts

All right, hello everyone. This is Volts for February 19, 2025 โ€” I have to keep reminding myself โ€” "What YIMBYs are learning from their victories across the country." I'm your host, David Roberts. Few social movements have had as many political and policy victories in recent years as the YIMBY movement. It stands for "yes in my backyard," and it refers to the loose coalition of groups and constituencies that are pushing US cities and towns to rapidly increase housing supply.

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It has gained momentum from the growing acknowledgment of a housing crisis in the US โ€” a crisis that is suppressing economic growth, exacerbating economic inequality, increasing traffic, pollution, and greenhouse gases, and siphoning voters away from dense blue areas into red exurban and rural areas. By making it difficult to build housing, progressive blue city leaders are shooting themselves, and progressivism, in the foot.

Annemarie Gray & Felicity Maxwell
Annemarie Gray & Felicity Maxwell

Two of the biggest housing breakthroughs, both the result of years of patient effort, have taken place recently in New York City and Austin, Texas, both of which have passed sweeping reforms including everything from upzoning to reduced parking requirements.

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My two guests today played key roles in those victories. Annemarie Gray runs Open New York, a grassroots pro-housing advocacy organization, which she joined after several years as a policy advisor to New York City government. Felicity Maxwell is a long-time housing advocate and organizer in Austin who now runs Texans for Housing, a pro-housing advocacy organization, and is on the city planning commission.

Though both are focused on their local campaigns, they are also part of the Welcoming Neighbors Network, a growing coalition of pro-housing groups across the country dedicated to sharing insights and strategies. I am extremely keen to hear about those insights and strategies and how well they might transfer across geographies, so let's get into it.

Annemarie Gray

With no further ado, Annemarie Gray, Felicity Maxwell, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Felicity Maxwell

Thanks for having us.

David Roberts

Super excited about this conversation. Just to frame things a little bit โ€” and I discussed this with both of you in advance โ€” the reason I wanted to do this and sort of the mindset from which I'm approaching this is, to me as I've gotten interested in urban issues, housing, transportation, transit density, that whole network of one thing about it has struck me over and over again. I've never quite been able to put it adequately into words, but I want to compare it to the Sunshine of the Empty Mind or whatever that movie is called, insofar as, I mean, it seems like no one ever learns anything.

Like the battles never change, like the battle over the bike lane in 2025 is the same as the battle over the bike lane in a different city in 2018, or 2010, or 2005. It's like the same constituencies arrayed against one another, the same arguments, just the same everything. It seems like it's always struck me like nothing ever changes. There's no momentum. You know, it's like you're starting over again every time. It's very frustrating in that way. I don't exactly know what the term is for that or whatever.

All of which is to say, it's very exciting to me to hear about this network of pro-housing groups that are trying to share what they've learned, share strategies. Just the idea that, like, we might actually be figuring out how to do this better and quicker over time, you know, just like that's very hopeful to me. And this sort of run of victories that has popped up lately seems to indicate to me that, "Yes, like, maybe we are learning, maybe we are getting better, maybe it's not the same every time." So, that's what I'm excited to hear from you guys is like, what we've learned that might be transferable.

But to back up a little bit โ€” sorry, that's a whole second introduction โ€” to back up a little bit. Let's just start by maybe each of you what has happened in your city. I referenced it very briefly in the introduction, but Annemarie, maybe I'll start with you. Maybe just tell people, like in the last two to three years, what happened in New York City? What are the reforms that passed?

Annemarie Gray

Sure, and super great questions. The positive answer here is, I think, we are making progress. Right. As you mentioned, I worked in government and most recently in city hall for 10 years total, three years in city hall, really overseeing planning and land use and housing issues. And frankly, the momentum that we've seen and the narrative change that we've seen even in these short years has been so interesting. In 2020, 2021, I worked on the SoHo, NoHo and Gowanus rezonings, which were two of the first the city has passed in decades that were in sort of high opportunity, well-resourced neighborhoods.

And that kind of had seemed to be politically off-limits before that. And you had this emerging group of some established orgs, but also just some kind of like loosely organized individuals, volunteers who were tied to this group, Open New York in the early stages start to show up and sort of have this new and newly visible constituency saying, "Yes," especially to these types of projects.

David Roberts

Yes, I want to. I want to get in later to exactly what that constituency looks like.

Annemarie Gray

Yes. And so, I saw that from the inside and honestly, I made the jump almost two and a half years ago to become executive director of Open New York and really grow it to focus on not just project by project, but citywide. And now we're even doing statewide work. And we've grown tremendously because there just has not been this outside force in the same way.

And then, we've been part of this network that has also just grown exponentially in the last couple of years and really learning from each other. What's been so interesting is, since I took over, we saw the first proposal at the state level for the types of state-level reforms that New York has never passed yet, but other states have. That was in 2023. And then, the City of Yes for Housing Opportunity proposal is sort of rooted in a lot of the work when I was back in City Hall and a lot of the sort of fair housing focused work.

And that passed in December after a really huge push that us and our organization, our members were really, really, really active in. And that, frankly, was the first real pro-housing win for New York. And it was actually taking a citywide approach rather than these one-off, kind of like toxic neighbor to neighbor fights to actually say, "We need to do this, we need to bring this to a higher level of decision making and pass these really sensible policies that impact every district." We are also now โ€” yesterday we were up in Albany relaunching the first major pro-housing bill that would be statewide, called the Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act.

David Roberts

Maybe just tell us, I mean, I know it's a lot, there's a lot in there, but maybe just give us the brief, sort of high line, like what is the City of Yes? It's a package of a bunch of things. What are the sort of top-line items in it?

Annemarie Gray

Yes, so yes, it's a citywide plan passed in December. It has a bunch โ€” the tagline has been, it was introduced by the city and was really passed with a lot of leadership also from the City Council. It's a whole package of reforms with the idea it's a little more housing in every neighborhood. And so it includes legalizing accessory dwelling units in some of the lower density parts of New York City, making it easier to convert an office building to housing, some transit-oriented development, lifting parking mandates in a lot of parts of the city, and introducing a program called University Affordability Preference that added an affordable housing bonus in a huge swath of the city and a handful of other things like that.

So, something that touched every neighborhood in a very sensible way.

David Roberts

And this is, you know, as you said, just to emphasize, this is really the first citywide shakeup in zoning and land use in New York City in ages.

Annemarie Gray

Correct.

David Roberts

Okay, Felicity, what did Austin do?

Felicity Maxwell

It's funny because it sounds a lot like what New York did, except in Austin. So, yes, for those who may not be familiar, during COVID and even before then, Austin had sort of become this hot, hip city that everyone wanted to move to. And of course, we had this huge run-up in housing, a result in a real constraint on supply. And I think some people may not be aware that we'd actually tried to do a lot of work around reforming our land development code, like how we build in the city for basically 10 years.

So, it's interesting to hear, Annemarie, because what they did in maybe a shorter time, we did over a much longer time. The organization that I'm with, or I have been a board member of, AURA, has actually been in Austin for over 10 years. And so, the work was much slower here, but then suddenly accelerated very quickly after 2020.

David Roberts

What's the quote? " Slowly, and then all at once."

Felicity Maxwell

All at once. That's literally what happened. We had some elections that really led to a big turnover in who was leading the city and the city council members. And there was suddenly this huge appetite to really address in a very holistic and, I think, I would say, dramatic way: How can we sort of try to attack the unaffordable housing in Austin? So, we had a suite of reforms. They were a little bit more piecemeal than I think what they all did in New York. We didn't have a great tagline like "City of Yes".

David Roberts

It is a good tagline, I gotta say.

Felicity Maxwell

It's a good tagline. But, you know, we kind of, I like to joke, we speed ran it because we eliminated parking minimums across the city. We did minimum lot size, we did three units by right. We did a lot of work around our new Project Connect, which is our transit system. So, that's ETOD work. We also did something related to compatibility, which is how close you can build to a single-family home. So, it was literally all these kind of thorny issues that had been part of Austin's โ€” like the underlying causes of all of this for years and years and years that have been sort of intractable.

David Roberts

When you say three units by right, will you just unpack that very briefly?

Felicity Maxwell

Oh, absolutely. So, similar to what Annemarie mentioned, we now have the ability to put up to three units on any single-family lot in Austin.

David Roberts

And when you say "by right," that just means you don't have to ask. You can just do it.

Felicity Maxwell

Don't have to ask. Essentially, it replaced โ€” we had duplex rules and ADU rules, which were quite onerous and made the units kind of unattractive and unaffordable. I'll say, like, really impractical. And so now it's very simple. If you have a certain lot size, you can build up to three units. There are some limits in terms of how big each one can be and it gets into complicated things like FAR, which โ€” let's not talk about that. But the idea generally being that if you have a certain size lot in Austin, you can build, you know, more than one house, which really does help with infill.

And then, of course, the second part of that is, if you don't want to have three units on your own lot, you can subdivide your lot. And that's where you get into things like dividing lots into smaller sizes. Austin went from 5750 in terms of our lot size down to 1800 square feet.

David Roberts

That's pretty wild. That's a huge jump.

Felicity Maxwell

And, you know, I've been in this fight for probably the last five to 10 years, and it's amazing to me that we did that all basically in like 18 months.

David Roberts

I know, I know. Well, I'm going to ask a little bit later about what we think about durability and that sort of thing. But, in both cases, you had pressure over a long period of time, and then, like a dam, broke and a bunch of stuff happened all at once. So, I want to sort of get to what I think of as the key question. I want to hear from both of you on this. So, anyone who has been on the YIMBY side of any fight or campaign in any city is familiar with a basic asymmetry involved in these fights, which is to say, the people who have the time and money and wherewithal and knowledge to know what's happening and to show up to the meetings and to lobby tend to be the people who already live in these areas, which tend to be older, wealthier, and whiter.

All things being equal, that's who tends to show up to these meetings where, you know, they have their coordinated T-shirts, they have their neighborhood groups. They've been in these neighborhood groups for years. They share info, etc. They're very organized, etc. And on the other side, the pro-housing side, you know, sort of by definition, like the hundred, you know, 200 people who will live in the apartment building that might or might not get built, don't know who they are, no one knows who they are, no one knows who's going to live in the building yet. So they're not showing up.

Right. And lots of times, if it's affordable housing, like lower-income people have jobs they can't get away from or just have less social capital, more trouble finding out, these things are going on. So all of which is just to say that the forces of inaction, the forces of freezing neighborhoods in place, the NIMBY forces, have a sort of built-in advantage here, which means the organizing task facing YIMBYs, it's just a higher bar, they just have more to do, it's more difficult. And I would say that New York City and Austin were known in these circles for years not just for having these neighborhood groups, but for having particularly organized, vigorous, some might even say vicious neighborhood groups, specifically in both those cities.

So, what I'd like to hear, just at a high level, is just like what's kind of your theory of change as you approach that asymmetry? How do you think about how to cobble together a force that can match that very organized pre-existing force that already exists in every one of these places? Annemarie, you can start.

Annemarie Gray

Sure. So, we have chosen โ€” city and state level policy actually could intervene here โ€” but we have chosen to defer these types of decisions to sort of hyper-local constituents. It's not a representation of the district or the needs of the city. You know, exactly as you said, they skew better housing insecurity, they skew older, wealthier, whiter. And so what we've done is really, I mean we just have a whole new crop of people who are feeling this. And frankly, I do want to recognize there are people who have been feeling the crush of the housing crisis for so long, but I think that it has gotten to such a degree that it is now hitting frankly middle-class people.

It is hitting a much wider swath of the population, such that organizing the shared interests and the number of people riled up about this is easier. So, we really strategically organized just volunteer members of ours who live in their district to show up at these exact meetings that have just for decades been monopolized by these same particular voices. And what's so interesting about it is we're not talking about all that many people. Right. It's just sort of. We've chosen to defer these processes to a very small minority of people that's not representative. And that is, that is a choice.

Right. That is a choice that city and state policy could actually intervene on. And so, I think that our theory of change of all this is really make it visible. You know, we pick the types of projects that really make visible how unfair and undemocratic this is for the consequences of the problem for the whole city, the region, and frankly, the country of New York City. And then also strategically build more of a narrative and more of a movement to take these issues out of the reactionary project-by-project fight. We're never going to solve this by fighting project by project.

So, we are, you know, New York City is kind of a small state. City of Yes was the first time we actually did something citywide such that you just negated the need for a huge number of hyperlocal fights. And the real ticket that we're working on, you do that at the state level, you do that even further. Right. So, these just have to reach a higher level of government, which is the way that we decide other major policy issues. Right. Housing is kind of unique in this.

David Roberts

This is the maddening โ€” the maddening thing in this particular area. For some reason, it seems more than any other area of policy, people are like, "The more local it is, the more democratic it is." And that just doesn't follow. It doesn't make any sense. Like, there are more people in New York State than there are in that neighborhood. So it's more democratic if more people weigh in on it. You know, almost by definition, the larger polity you're working with, the more democratic it is. Like, why would it be democratic for, you know, 12 old people to run land use?

Like, I don't get that instinct.

Annemarie Gray

It doesn't make sense, and it's not working.

David Roberts

Yeah. So, who โ€” maybe put a little meat on the bones. Like, these are young people who are in apartments who can't afford houses you're organizing? Are these people who want to move to New York City? Are they people who are โ€” insofar as you can, you know, broadly characterize them, like, who's involved in these other constituencies?

Annemarie Gray

Of our membership?

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah. Just like who's pushing for YIMBY reforms now, like, who are the kind of groups?

Annemarie Gray

So, we're the only pro-housing, major pro-housing group in the whole state, actually, and the city. So, we're filling, we're growing quickly, filling a huge void. We, at this point, have over 800 members, you know, starting in New York City. So that's our largest base, but we've been growing chapters across the state too, and then also partnering with other groups with shared interests. So honestly, you know, it's a quite diverse bunch. Right.

We do have people of all ages. They skew younger because they skew people. People who are renters and, you know, they like, want to build a family, they want to live here, and they just don't see how that's going to be possible. And sort of the story of New York City as the place of promise, the place of opportunity, the place that's really open to everyone, is just not really feeling true. And it's getting so much worse exponentially. A healthy housing vacancy rate is about 7 - 8%. New York City's been about 4% for the past decade.

Last year, we had a 1.4% vacancy, which is basically nothing. It's just basically nothing. Right?

David Roberts

I know. And it's always... There's always a slightly maddening, crazy to me that, like, this is viewed as a big problem for a city. Like, what could be a better problem for a city to have than a bunch of people want to live there? Like, you know, it ought to be like celebrating. And yet everyone in the, you know, everyone in these neighborhoods is like, "Ugh, people, blah." Makes no sense to me. Felicity, tell me. It's the same, I know the neighborhood groups in Austin are very well organized. Who did you find to do an end run around them?

Felicity Maxwell

Funny, because I like to think of it also as your city's getting younger, smarter, and more involved. I just have to say in Austin, there's been this influx of people from other cities. Obviously, San Francisco, the Californians moving to Texas is a big narrative, but maybe priced out of some of these other blue cities. And then they came to Austin and they're like, "Hey, wait a second, what do you mean you can't have a sidewalk cafe and an apartment right next door?" And I think the other thing that sort of Annemarie touched on, which is the way we were doing it, didn't work.

And we spent a lot of time trying to make those neighborhood groups, who were very well organized and quite politically powerful, happy, and there was no version of it that they could live with. So, I think that's the other thing is for political folks, at some point you stop beating your head against the wall and say, "We're going to do something different." And that is exactly, I think, the thing that I like to emphasize is elections make a difference. Political leadership makes a difference. So, as much as you organize and have people come to these ridiculously hyperlocal meetings, you have to have someone who's willing to listen.

And unless you have that type of leadership who's saying, "You know what? Maybe the neighborhood groups aren't right, and maybe we should be having more people live here." I mean, Austin did 10 years of, "If you don't build it, they won't come," and they came anyway. So, it was like we were just at a breaking point. And so, I think that that does help, is that not only do you have new faces and names and people coming that are excited to make your city the best it can be, that sort of dynamism helps you to create a narrative that is different from what has been there before and also makes those folks seem a little bit head in the sand.

If you want your city to grow, you have to have new people, and they have to have a place to live. They're contributing to the economy. They're paying taxes. One of the biggest things in Austin that I think is interesting is that we have our state universities here, University of Texas at Austin, and we have tons and tons of college students who live in Austin, sometimes for only, you know, two to four years, but sometimes much longer. And there was this real sense of, "If you went to UT, you should be able to stay in Austin."

Like, that's a long, honored tradition. And guess what? They couldn't. There was no place for them to live. Apartments were outrageous. So, it was just this sense of, "Hey, wait a second. This has been something that generations of Texans have done." Come to Austin, gone to UT, slacked off for a few years, then, you know, moved back to Dallas and maybe grew up. Right. But you couldn't do it anymore.

David Roberts

I have relatives in my very own family who lived that exact arc. Well, here's a question. It is the kids of those very older, wealthy NIMBY homeowners who can't afford to live in the same city as their parents. Is that not reaching any โ€” ? Like, does that not affect them in any way? Like, does that not change any minds? Their own kids have been priced out of their city. Does that argument not reach any of them?

Felicity Maxwell

I think it does, actually. To be fair, I think that some families understand that you can't expect to have your grandkids live near you if there's no place for them to be able to buy a house. And I'm sure Annemarie's heard this story over and over, that people now leave New York when they want to start a family. So, if you are, you know, there's no opportunity to live there in a sort of townhome or a larger, like you were talking about, tiny apartments by and large. So, it's very difficult to feel like you can have a family life that works necessarily in New York.

And then in Austin, the same thing. You are moving out to the suburbs, you know, these outer kind of exurbs area far away from, exactly to your point, these nice inner suburban areas or sort of core parts of Austin. And people are like, "What do you mean? My daughter has to live in Round Rock?" And you're like, "Have you looked at housing prices in your neighborhood? That's why." And so, I do think it helps with the light bulb. But there is this fundamental sense, going back to where we started with this conversation, of these folks are neighborhood preservationists, and as much as they might want their granddaughter around the corner, they're not really willing to give up the sense of, "Oh, that might mean an extra house in my neighborhood."

You know, like, there's a real tension there.

David Roberts

I'm so glad to hear you say that, like, these people are unreachable because, honestly, you know, I'm a good liberal. I'm like, "Well, maybe, like, maybe they have a point. I should listen to their arguments." You know, so I actually, it's funny, I went to one of the AI engines for the first time I've ever done this. I was like, "Alright, AI, tell me, what are the arguments that the NIMBYs use, you know, in New York City? Like, what are they saying? I'll try to engage these." And they're just bad arguments.

Like, they're just โ€” and they're the same bad arguments that have been refuted a gazillion times. So, it's very difficult for me, even as a sort of bending-over-backward liberal, to like โ€” the vibe you get is like, "These people just aren't going to change their minds. These are not good faith arguments." Like, you know, the arguments, like the stuff about trees and all this stuff, it's just like you people are dug in and you're reverse engineering arguments from a place of immovable insistence. Like, that's, anyway, so. But there is one, there is actually one argument that I think kind of tugs at the values and the heartstrings of liberals like me.

And of course, like, it directly affects communities involved, which is this notion of gentrification and displacement. So, I think the communities who live in the places that are proposed to be up-zoned will say, "If you do that, it gets nice. They're going to build a bunch of luxury apartments, a bunch of rich people are going to move in, we're going to get pushed out." And that argument, I think, motivates them. And I think it also has a kind of hold more broadly too. Like, I think your general progressive is like, "Yeah, that bugs progressives too."

So, I guess I would just ask like A, what is the right way to think about that? And then B, what are the arguments when you're dealing with those groups that are under that threat? What do you tell them? How do you interact with those groups? How do you deal with that issue? I'll start with Annemarie.

Annemarie Gray

Again, it's a really good point, and it's actually something, you know, the first founders of Open New York, even before me, made a very intentional choice that we are focusing on the most exclusionary neighborhoods, the whitest, wealthiest neighborhoods. And frankly, in New York City, I mean, a lot of them, not only are they not building any housing and they're in the middle of Manhattan, in the middle of some of the nicest parts of Brooklyn, they're on top of transit. They're next to the best job and transit centers in the entire country. Right.

They're not only not building anything, they've been on net losing homes. Actually, there's been some really fantastic research by a member of ours, especially in, we have a lot of historic districts โ€” again, love-struck buildings. But like when you're not building any more housing, what's happening is you're losing apartment buildings invisibly by, you know, wealthy people converting a whole, you know โ€”

David Roberts

Oh my God, so they're losing housing units because rich people are merging houses?

Annemarie Gray

Correct. And we're not building anything else.

David Roberts

That's dystopian.

Annemarie Gray

That wouldn't be as big a problem if you were actually building anything. There's actually some reporting that New York City has lost 100,000 units in the last couple of decades.

David Roberts

God, that's amazing.

Annemarie Gray

Right? Yeah. So, we have like, you know, the whole maps show parts that are growing and parts that are literally negative. So there has been a very intentional choice to focus on that. And then, the same with sort of โ€” this is how I came at all of this work from a very deep fair housing lens. Frankly, these are all fair housing violations. Right. Like the way we do this really actually should be seen through that lens and that especially in New York City has really helped build much more alliances with progressive movements, with groups that have been working on different types of fair housing policy for decades and creating a narrative that, kind of to your point earlier, there are some people who feel this stuff very, very strongly.

I actually really firmly believe a lot of people, they don't care nearly as much. But the problem is they're given a choice to fight for something and they get all worked up. We actually are, we're advocating around one particular project in an area that hasn't built an affordable home in 15 years. And the local community board is just like extremely oppositional to this one, like a 12-story building. But those exact same people, that exact same community board unanimously voted to pass City of Yes, which does actually almost the same thing.

David Roberts

I mean, that's what they all say, right? That "We're not against affordable housing." No. Like, you can't find any of them that will say they're against affordable housing. "It's just not here. Not here in my place."

Annemarie Gray

Yeah, and I do really think that people's perspectives are malleable because I think that's what you've really seen, at least now in New York City. You compare articles from even a couple years ago, people are saying, "Oh, we need to build more homes." And that has become a progressive stance. And I think we are very, very intentional to also say, "This also doesn't solve all the problems." Right. We have, we very intentionally have a broad housing platform that covers things like tenant protections, covers different ways that we need to make sure we're building deeply affordable housing.

But, this has been a missing piece of the puzzle that there has never been a sustained advocacy force around. And, I think you're seeing that in a really smart, interesting way right now.

David Roberts

Felicity, have you dealt directly with these groups? And how do you think about it? It's not just what are the policy mechanisms, but really how do you think about it? Do you worry that people are being displaced? Like, is it a real phenomenon? Like, how do you think about that?

Felicity Maxwell

Oh, absolutely. For those of you who are familiar with Austin, you've probably driven on I-35, which basically bisects the city into East and West Austin. East Austin just has borne the brunt of a lot of the development and has been transformed. And of course, that was traditionally black and Hispanic neighborhoods. They've been displaced to other parts, again, to those exurbs that are more suburban. And there's been a huge loss of history and culture of those communities in the Eastern Crescent, as we call it here in Austin.

So, absolutely, when we started talking about housing reform, this became a huge issue because it was suddenly like, "You're going to give us more housing? Like, wait, what? We don't know. We're the ones who've already had this direct displacement because of the development that's happened in Austin."

David Roberts

I know it's such a torturous debate because, like, you see that point. But then, on the other hand, you're like, "Well, the solution can't be to keep your neighborhood run down on purpose, to avoid this." Like, that can't be a good solution either. There's got to be some third way.

Felicity Maxwell

Yeah, well, so our emphasis really was on citywide. Exactly the same. Because then you are not carving out special districts. So, you know, white, wealthy Austin does not get special privileges to say "no" to three units by right. Now, you can build ADUs anywhere. And it was sort of this idea of like, "Look, you've had the brunt of this because we intentionally created policies that made it easier to build on the East Side." And your point about the neighborhood preservationists, they're like, "I don't care if you build housing as long as it's not here." So there was always a "here" that's not here.

And that was the east side of Austin. And so, we saw this happening in real time. So our point was always like, "Look, this is actually undoing a lot of the bad faith," or sort of intentional or unintentional sort of carve out of where you could develop easily in Austin, Texas. And I do think that that was very successful. And I will say this, like we went back โ€” so one of the original plans in Austin is called the 1928 Plan. The zoning category, it's racist, like, there's absolutely no doubt. And so, like, I think that was our point too, is we are legitimately trying to undo historical harms in a way that benefits the community and try to repair some of the things that have happened.

And I would also say that we have really great, again, leadership on this because we did things like financial assistance around, you know, building ADUs and a lot of things work to make sure that those communities felt like there was a benefit to them for this. It wasn't just rampant development that's been the same thing that they've seen for the last 20 years. We're talking about displacement, we're talking about gentrification, and we're doing the things we can to address it. Is it fixing everything? No.

David Roberts

I mean, this is the question, like, what do you do? What is the best case outcome, I guess, in your head? Is the idea that like these communities build up and all or some substantial number of the people who live there before that process starts are sheltered and can remain there? And is that like practical? Is that viable? Like, what is the best case scenario here?

Felicity Maxwell

I think that's an excellent question. And exactly that, because unfortunately, a lot of the housing stock in East Austin or other places that are of lower income status, it's older now. Like, it might be at the point where it is really fine. To your point, you can't keep neighborhoods run down just because people may not want to move or, you know, that feels right to them in their community. We have to think about what it looks like to have new housing stock that is replaced. It's like having an older car. Great that it sits in your driveway.

Probably not practical over the long term. I think that's what we would say too, is if there's a way to gently turn over housing stock in a way that feels compatible with the community that's still there. I think it feels good. I would also say โ€” this sounds strange โ€” but things that we've done, which is that gentle density and trying to encourage ADUs, that's the idea that people can stay in these communities and build a new granny flat. So they can, you know, so you're trying to come up with creative solutions that recognize community but also understand that change is necessary and the change that they feel comfortable with, like is positioned not as we are telling you what to do.

We're giving you a suite of options so you can figure out what feels right for this neighborhood or this street. I don't think it's perfect by any means, but it's certainly better than setting up policies where you get run over by developers because you literally can't build anywhere else.

Annemarie Gray

I think it also points to the reason why it's so important that we have a whole suite of policies and sort of like an "all of the above" approach. Especially in New York, we've very intentionally been like, "People are really rightly feeling the pressures when we're not building enough in the neighborhoods that we are actually most focused on," sort of the most centrally located, well-researched neighborhoods. Those pressures are real and they're not going to change overnight. People respond very differently to new projects if they don't feel like they themselves have some more protections as a tenant, if they're a tenant, for example.

Right. So, we've very intentionally been like, tenant protections go along with this. Right. Same with programs that are really trying to address like predatory forces of longtime black homeowners right in parts of Brooklyn that are now suddenly really hip, right? And these fears are super duper real, and we have to think about all of them because those fears are real and they are going to be barriers to this, this idea that everywhere should be growing. But it's been so unequal. And people's fears and feelings about that are very legitimate.

David Roberts

There's also a bunch of research that's come out lately, which I think is cool and interesting, which shows that even if what you're building in an area is luxury apartments for, you know โ€” like no one, there is no set definition of what that means.

Felicity Maxwell

What is a luxury apartment?

David Roberts

People say that as a kind of slur, you know, like "developer," like nobody knows exactly what they mean by it. But even if, say you're building high-end apartments in a place, the research shows that wealthy people will shift into those and then less wealthy people will shift into whatever apartments they abandoned and so on down the line. You're freeing up units and if you build a bunch of those, lower average rents in a place over time. But I will say, despite there being a lot of research to that effect, boy, howdy, do people not believe that. Boy, do people not want to hear that.

Like, I have yet to encounter a person who's convinced by that in the wild. Do you guys even try to bring that argument into play at all?

Felicity Maxwell

I'm going to jump in on this one because if you look at Austin's housing and our rental prices, and how much we've decreased rentals just because we've added supply โ€”

David Roberts

Case in point.

Felicity Maxwell

I am just going to say, we are the real-world example of what that is, which is filtering. And if you don't believe it, if you live in the city, like I've got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn, right? You just have to understand that it works. And we are actually proving it month by month, year over year, because we're adding supply.

And sure, it's not all in the central corridor or whatever, but the more multifamily units we've added, the more we've seen rent decreases. And like, we see examples of people who've moved from two bedrooms into three bedrooms and got a rent decrease in Austin. And so, that's the thing is that type of supply and market demand, it shifts how renters are treated. And what's available to them. So then, this narrative really becomes much more like, "Oh, I have housing options" versus feeling housing pressure.

And I think that's really important because when people feel like they have housing options, they're like, "Oh, I like these reforms. Oh, maybe I should. You know, I want to be supportive of the things." And so we just literally saw that with our own elections. We essentially had a good housing council here in Austin and now we've elected another additional person who's pro-housing and reelected our mayor. So, like the votes were there to support the work we did. So not only did we do all the reforms, but then when election time came, the public said, "Please do more of this." And so that feels great because I think that is a, exactly to your point, a real-world case example of like economics work, supply works.

And guess what? When you do it right, people respond.

David Roberts

Yes, and this is only novel and odd sounding to people because it's in housing. In any other area of life, this is just basic supply and demand economics. Like, you increase supply and prices go down. This should not sound weird. And yet, for some reason, people have the weirdest sort of folk notions in their head about housing. How about โ€” Annemarie, my guess is, this hasn't been going on in New York City long enough to draw a lot of results. Is that true?

Annemarie Gray

I often reference Austin and how rents did actually fall. And other cities that have done that. And very much seconding , sort of like people feeling this as optionality. A line that we've actually used a lot is like, "Your landlord should be worried that you can find another apartment." That's the other way around, right?

David Roberts

It's like a strong labor market, you know, it's the same. It's exactly analogous to a strong labor market. Like, if there are fewer workers, workers are more empowered.

Annemarie Gray

Totally. But to your first question, even if the sort of academic research does draw this out, I do not tend to use the argument of like, "Oh no, no, no, you build like that building across the street." But it's also, it's โ€” yes, it might lower your rent, but by a very marginal, like a tiny amount. It's just not, it's not a great argument project by project. But this is yet another reason why this cannot be discussed or analyzed or fought project by project. Because if you did that citywide and especially region wide, again, it is just completely bonkers.

The number of parking lots we have near train stations, especially in like Long Island, Westchester, and the New York City region.

David Roberts

And it turns out, the minute you go after one, every single one is a precious, historic parking lot that the community loves, that it could not possibly live without.

Annemarie Gray

But it's also just โ€” it's exactly the reason that you have to bring this to a higher level of decision-making, because citywide and region-wide, that impact is so real. Right. New York City, honestly, the best example in our region of that is New Jersey. And the only reason New York's housing crisis isn't even more insane is because New Jersey has sort of been a release valve.

David Roberts

Oh, yeah.

Felicity Maxwell

Yep.

David Roberts

Let me ask about partisanship here. So, one of the things that the sort of network of these groups, the Welcoming Neighbors Network, kind of emphasizes is that you're going to end up with strange bedfellows, coalitions to make these things happen. You know, like we sort of discussed earlier, you're sort of cobbling together coalitions and those are necessarily probably going to be cross-partisan in most places. And I will say that it seems like, and I'm knocking on wood, honestly, even saying this, but it seems like to some extent the simple push for more housing has not yet been polarized, has not yet been dragged into the polarization machine and made into yet another polarized issue. That seems to me like both an incredible and increasingly rare advantage.

And also, it just feels like you're all dancing through minefields here. You know what I mean? It's so easy โ€” there's such a heightened sensitivity around that stuff these days that it's really easy to run into those tripwires. So, I'm sort of wondering how you, I mean โ€” let's start with you, Annemarie. I mean, New York City's blue, so, you know, maybe it's not as big of a deal for you, but I'm just wondering, how do you think about not tripping those partisan tripwires?

Annemarie Gray

Yes, I think we're on one end of the spectrum in the network because, you know, in New York City, the City of Yes just passed without a single Republican vote and the Republicans we have are nuts and aligned with our current president. Right? There's a massive baseline democratic values disagreement here.

David Roberts

But, like New York Democrats, are like, I mean, no offense, no great shakes.

Annemarie Gray

Oh, don't worry, don't worry. I deal with them every day. It's sort of been a, especially in New York City, it's sort of like center, center-left, and progressives. And if you look at how all the votes shook out for City of Yes, that was all very, very needed. And that's been so much of the focus of how we talk about this work and how we've built coalitions and built strategy. We are on the state level โ€” the interesting thing about New York State is the major, major policy passes in the budget, which is three Democrats in a room.

Again, they are responding to their, with sort of different levels of representation, responding to all of the legislators that do have some Republicans or do have some more centrist Democrats that are very worried about a Republican challenger. And again, we are learning in real time how to pass housing policy in Albany because we haven't passed it yet. We're kind of one of the lone states that hasn't done that at the state level yet. And so we're learning that in real time. But it has been interesting that we have a particular budget process where major things pass that is not kind of your standard whip count.

And so, what we're trying to figure out and sort of build momentum from, we're really, truly learning in real time. And there are also, you know, we have Long Island Republicans who are a very certain type, like far western New York Republicans, actually have a different approach to some of these things. So, we're just learning this in real time. But our strategy has been so centrally focused on the whole span of the Democratic coalition. And again, some of the biggest opposition we've seen is in the deepest blue districts.

David Roberts

Oh, sure, like the "D" next to your name is no guarantee on this issue for sure.

Annemarie Gray

No, which is partly why really showing like this is the right side to be on if you want to call yourself a Democrat or progressive on any front. And also, then you mentioned this at the beginning, but the national implications for the Democratic Party of New York losing seats is enormous and is extremely, extremely driven by how those same Democrats are not doing anything on housing policy.

David Roberts

Yeah, so just to, like, just to put a line into that, because I don't know if I really spelled it out in the intro or if people are aware of this, but, like, refusing to build housing is literally losing these blue areas population to red areas, which means they're literally losing congressional representation. Which means, I heard โ€” this is like an apocalyptic factlet for you โ€” if you just reran the 2020 election with the new districts based on the newest population numbers, Trump would have won, like, in incredibly close national elections, Democrats are literally, like, losing votes in Congress.

I don't know if people get this, but, like, that, I think, is one of the reasons that the national Democratic Party is slowly but surely waking up to this issue, because it's starting to threaten their reelection chances. So, Felicity, you're down there. You're a little blue island.

Felicity Maxwell

Yes.

David Roberts

In a big red sea.

Felicity Maxwell

I was gonna say, well, we'll happily take those congressional seats here in Texas.

David Roberts

How do you think about partisanship? I mean, I can only assume that it's kind of more of a thing down there.

Felicity Maxwell

Yeah, it's a very different reality, obviously, because Austin is quite liberal, very similar to New York City, and we have that same sort of, shall we say, spectrum of how you view housing. And I actually think an interesting thing to think about on the Democratic side is the age of the people who are in leadership, because I will say that we do see the kind of more conservative around housing issues tends to really go with an older politician, certainly someone who's more enmeshed and, to your point, has maybe been a part of those neighborhood groups and had those T-shirts for years. So, like them feeling the pressure.

David Roberts

And we should just say, live in suburbs, and drive everywhere. Right?

Felicity Maxwell

Exactly. So, I think as we've seen younger folks come into leadership here in Austin in particular, that has shifted because those people are all Democrats, but they believe very much in the pro-housing reforms that we implemented here. I think at the state level in Texas, the very interesting thing is probably the most deregulatory pro-housing folks in the state of Texas are Republicans.

David Roberts

Interesting. I was going to ask about that. Like, is there meaningful Republican support here?

Felicity Maxwell

Absolutely. And that is all related to the fact that we have this thing called the Texas Miracle, which has been this huge growth of Texas, hence all the new congressional districts. But the idea is exactly that, is that we have welcomed new industries, new businesses, new people. And all of that requires services and housing and sort of just this kind of growth machine, if you think about it. And that's happened probably over the last 15 to 20 years in particular. And in Austin, for example, that's the tech scene. In other places, Dallas finance, it's been different in different parts of the state, but the same result everywhere, which is net migration.

And also, of course, just growth in the sense of everything is booming. And so, when you look at it that way, for those Republicans who support this deep in their heart and believe in the economics of what we're doing in this state, they understand that housing becoming unattainable for workers who move here or moving throughout the state, that's unacceptable. That basically breaks one of the cogs in the machine and the machine falls apart if housing prices basically get out of โ€”

David Roberts

You know, who restricts housing and thereby limits their growth? California. Do you want to be like California?

Felicity Maxwell

No, please. There's people in Texas who might faint if they heard you say that.

David Roberts

Right, exactly.

Felicity Maxwell

That's exactly. I will actually โ€” it is actually so true though. It's like basically you can't say the C word around Texans because we know what it looks like when you have the growth magic growth machine and then you turn off the housing spigot. That's California. And I think there's a very clear understanding of we don't want to be like that, so what can we do proactively? So our situation at the state is very much, Republicans are leading on this. And how can we get Democrats, some of whom are of that older generation, to understand, "Hey, no, no, this is a statewide issue."

To your point, that is not chewed up with partisanship. That is not actually something that needs to be thought of as left. Right. It can be something that works for everybody.

David Roberts

And you can point to Montana, right? That's the โ€”

Felicity Maxwell

Exactly. Montana's the big example. And, you know, Montana's a pretty small state, but I would also say that they had a similar situation where they had such an influx of people, again from California mostly and other places on the west coast, where they saw their sleepy little towns get overrun and just that huge spike. So, I think in some ways, that kind of crash to the system does have an impact on the policies that come out of it. And that's why I think at the state level, we will see some state housing reforms this year, because there's just that sense of we can't wait two more years.

Yes, the Texas Legislature only meets every other year, so we have a time clock on us. Because two years from now, that growth machine might be starting to look a little shaky. And that would be because of housing prices.

David Roberts

So you think not only is there Republican support for these kind of reforms, you think there's majority Republican support sufficient to get it through an extremely Republican legislature?

Felicity Maxwell

Absolutely. The lieutenant governor just named housing affordability as one of his 20 key priorities. So, I think it's SB15. The bill is not officially announced yet, but he will be leading on a specific housing bill. And so, like, when you see it at the highest level of Republican government in the state of Texas, my job here is not to talk to Republicans and say, "Hey, we need to do this." They've already gotten that message because of the way they think about the economy, what they want for their communities.

What I have to do is go and talk to Democrats and say, "This is something we can do together, and we can make it better by doing it together, because then we'll be able to talk about things like affordable housing, displacement, gentrification, and all those other things. You know, don't let them lead us to a place that works just for the free market. Let's get to a place that works for everybody."

David Roberts

And, Annemarie, wouldn't it be embarrassing if the Republican Texas legislature passed a bunch of housing reforms and the Democratic New York Legislature did not?

Annemarie Gray

I would love to. I ask that question every day. Right. You know, I say that line all the time. But... yeah.

David Roberts

Are you optimistic about statewide reforms? Like, do you feel like this has gained enough momentum that it's got a statewide majority of Democrats?

Annemarie Gray

So, it's gained so much momentum so quickly. As I mentioned, we've been running the first housing bill in the state general. That's actually something that's passed in other states, working with a whole coalition of faith-based organizations. We had a rally yesterday with pastors and folks from all faiths, just the state, making it legal and empowering them to build affordable housing on their land if they want to. It's been known as "Yes, in God's backyard."

Felicity Maxwell

YIGBY!

David Roberts

Such a small ask, such a modest ask.

Annemarie Gray

But it is. And sort of the crux of it is, it is the state using the powers that it has to say, "This makes sense. We're going to use these powers and make that legal, even if that is not what local zoning says." Right. And so you get the same sort of local control fight, which, you know, in some cases, that's the argument used to defend school segregation, right?

David Roberts

Yes, well, I mean, local control does not have a proud history here in the US, let's just say.

Annemarie Gray

It definitely does not. And so, I'm feeling optimistic. One, because I should go to something else if I'm not. But also, it's just so pressing. It's getting so much worse. And I think that the narrative has changed so quickly. We also do a ton of really grassroots organizing, both with our members and with these coalition groups. We have really smart policy people that are there just explaining stuff to legislators who have never thought about this before. They just haven't.

David Roberts

A lot of this stuff is just so new.

Annemarie Gray

Yeah, it's really wonky. You say the word zoning and people's eyes just glaze over. We're also doing a lot of really smart comms and political communication. Last year, at the advice of frankly everyone that's worked in New York politics for a long time, we started an electoral arm of our organization to actually put money behind our endorsements and also build up enough influence to eventually challenge people that have been really bad on these issues. And so, it's growing quickly.

It's tough, you know. And I will say I think some bipartisanship, I think there's also some uncharted territory with what's happening on the national level and how that plays out. But I think that we're really โ€” to say the least โ€” but I think that we're really like, the narrative has changed so quickly. Even people who a year ago were like, "Eh, don't bother with that," are like, "Okay, this is a good bill." And so we're throwing everything we have at it.

David Roberts

Along similar lines, this is all fairly recent. So, I know any lawmaker's main worry is reelection. Right. So, I know that despite what they may say, all of them are sort of approaching these kinds of things, like, "Well, is this going to screw me? Is this going to get me booted out of office?" So, I'm wondering, like Felicity, the reason this stuff happened in Austin is that a new city council got elected, a substantially new city council got elected. Have we had elections since this stuff happened? Do we know enough yet to say what the electoral implications might be?

Felicity Maxwell

Absolutely. I think I mentioned that we just reelected our pro-housing mayor and then have actually flipped an additional housing seat on the city council.

David Roberts

And that was all in the wake of this?

Felicity Maxwell

Yes, that literally was in November. So, we had just finished. We basically did all of the last set of reforms passed in May, and then we had basically an election season and everyone won reelection, which seemed like a pretty good sign to us. I would say, generally, I think the thing to think about also is just that there's a lot of education that has to happen on this. And you know, I will say for political leaders who maybe have thought more about, I don't know, police contracts or how you're getting water utilities, you know that the things that the municipal sort of bread and butter has really been overwhelmed by this housing affordability crisis and attainability crisis.

And that's at the local level. So, like, those are the folks who felt it first. But if you think, you know, county level and then, you know, state level, those people have a certain amount of distance from all of this. So as the crisis kind of deepens or gets to a pinch point, you have to really educate at every level. And so, I think to Annemarie's point, we spent a lot of time the last session, so two years ago in Texas, just getting people to understand what the issue was and getting them to understand it and giving them exactly that.

"I know zoning sounds really boring, but I swear it's really important and you can make an impact," kind of conversation. And now they've heard it and they've seen it, and so now I think they're ready to do the work. But I will say that's the same thing at every political level, is that you just have to โ€” there's a certain amount of education and outreach that has to happen and organizing, to your point, but then at some point it clicks and you see that willingness to, like, lead and to be a little bit less afraid of the electoral results. And to know โ€” and I do think that this is where you get a shifting electorate โ€” there are people who want you to do this and they will turn out and vote for you. And like, that is critical.

David Roberts

You know, it was always the NIMBYs who were active. There are a lot of passive YIMBYs, you know, out in the world. It was always the NIMBYs who were organized and active. And that is what I think has changed more than anything else. It's like the YIMBYs are starting to get activated. How about you, Annemarie? Has there been enough electoral activity in the wake of all this to be able to say anything about what effect it might have?

Annemarie Gray

Yeah, I mean, I think reiterating and also sort of talking about the entire network, something else that's really interesting. It's just really important to remember how insanely young all of this work is. Right? I mean, we've all been at this for only a couple of years and sort of the broader Welcoming Neighbors Network, it's, you know, I think it's been an official organization for less than three years and we already have like 42 members across like 25 different states. And what's been interesting is we've had like, a sponsor of our bill has been talking to a legislator in California who passed a similar bill to be like, "What helped pass it?"

David Roberts

Right.

Annemarie Gray

And they're also seeing other electeds elsewhere in the country be like, "Oh," like, "Oh, they got reelected because of this." They're standing up and saying that that's good politics. But also at the same time, sort of back to some things from earlier in our conversation, it's really, really important that โ€” and the network has, I think, done a really good job of this โ€” empowering whatever strategy works for the city and state that you're in. Because all of our, like, our messaging looks different, frankly. We have a whole different, a wide range of messaging that we use if you're in Westchester, if you're in parts of New York City, if you're far upstate, and different things resonate with different electeds .

David Roberts

Yeah, and one thing I want to say, this is like in the network's literature too, and you're sort of implying it here, but I just want to underline it, which is: When people are not familiar with an issue, they're not familiar with the wonky ins and outs, they're not familiar with the policy or the economic dynamics in that situation, who is the messenger who is trying to persuade them becomes so important. When you're leading people into new territory, who is on that stage is so important.

Annemarie Gray

A thousand percent. And it's also why it's so important, like groups like what Felicity and I are running and all of our sort of counterparts around the country: you gotta be in these rooms to really understand, like, whose message works best, who they listen to, more or less. And you just tailor it. And what's so interesting about a lot of this work is we're kind of talking about the same things sometimes, but in completely different ways. And that's fine, right?

Felicity Maxwell

Yes, and in Austin, we actually got to host something called YIMBY Town, which is kind of our big hurrah last February. And WNN was, the network was a critical part of all of that work and sort of helps to facilitate the YIMBY Town gathering. And obviously, we were honored to host it. But the most impactful thing was exactly what Annemarie said was, you know, getting to hear people talking about the exact same issue but approaching it in different ways and having different messaging, but they're succeeding, like, you know, and learning from that opportunity. And a great example of this is, I think Annemarie mentioned the YIGBY bill.

Texas is going to have a YIGBY bill. There are several other states. We're going to do a network call so we can all talk about it. And you know what? Our YIGBY bills are not going to be the same. They're not going to look the same. We're not going to talk about them the same way. But fundamentally, it is a statewide reform that has a likelihood of passing in 3, 4, 5, 6 states this year. That is a huge win and something that would not have been possible 2, 3, 4, 5 years ago, certainly not 5 years ago. A, because nobody was talking about housing this way, and B, because we didn't have that collaboration and ability to learn from each other.

So, I think there is this certain amount of momentum that's not only are the wins building on each other, we're learning from each other and building a network that's going to be, I hope, a force to be reckoned with.

David Roberts

Well, I love to hear that. We're running a little short on time, but I did have a couple, just like two more questions that I really wanted to get to, and this one requires a little bit of wind up, if you'll indulge me. So, I'm in Seattle and there are a lot of NIMBYs in Seattle. There are a lot of people who oppose new housing. And then, when I look out at Seattle and I look out at, practically speaking, what does it look like when Seattle builds new housing? What happens is we don't want to offend anybody who lives in a single-family home neighborhood.

Those are inviolate. So, what does that leave? It leaves the narrow corridors in between single-family home neighborhoods. And so, all of Seattle's new housing consists of beige, ticky-tacky apartment buildings alongside giant three, four, and five-lane arterials. So yes, that's density, yes, it's new housing and that's good in and of itself, but it's pretty ugly and unpleasant. And like, you go outside your door and there's the din of traffic and there's the smell of traffic. Like, I literally, in Seattle planning documents, have seen these apartments on the corridors referred to as buffers to protect the single-family homeowners from that noise and that smell.

So, all of which is just to say, like, if I look around at Seattle and that's what density looks like: well, gross. Like, you know, it makes sense to me that people don't want that. And so, when I look at the policies recommended by your network and the sort of top-line policies that you've passed, all of them or most of them look to me like they're basically devoted to just more housing as such, more on a lot, divide the lot smaller. You can build more kinds of housing here, you can build taller here, but I don't see a ton of stuff devoted to making that density nice, i.e., trees, green spaces, public spaces, you know, the kinds of things that make the little cute European cities so nice to go visit. It's not just the density, it's the amenities, it's the layout, it's the quality of life. So, I'm just wondering, like, I know the main thing is we just need more housing, but it seems to me like you're going to smooth the skids, make it easier to build more new housing if when people see new housing, it looks nice, it looks like a place you might want to live. And like in Seattle, that's not the case.

So, I'm just wondering, how do you think about the balance there? Just like blunt force, more housing versus trying to make the places where more housing goes in nicer, nicer to live in. How do you think about that balance? Annemarie, I'll toss that one to you first.

Annemarie Gray

Sure, sure, yeah. A number of thoughts on this. And funny enough, I studied architecture before I went into all of this space, so I'm sensitive to some of that. But I think that one, there's been just needing to get over this baseline hump that building more homes is good, right? And I think that there are people who you could have the nicest multifamily building you've ever seen, and it doesn't matter, right? So, I do think there's a component of that. I think there is a component of there's a whole slew and almost โ€” I mean, ours and I think a lot of different YIMBY group platforms have things like building code reform in their policy agendas as well. Because we also have, you know, if you followed any of โ€” like single stair buildings.

David Roberts

I tuned into that fight.

Annemarie Gray

I'm sure you have. Like, there are also just kind of structural barriers to build better buildings that are part of this. I also very much fundamentally believe that it's very cultural. I mean, you know, the most beloved parts of Brooklyn, like brownstone Brooklyn, you go back when they were first built, people said the exact same things they say about new buildings now about those, right? And so, there is something very cultural about it. And I also think there is something, you know, people want something that feels human, right? And so, anything new is, by nature, needs to be lived in a little bit to feel more natural, right.

I think the main thing I point people to is one, like, you gotta get over the whole multifamily building thing. And in New York, that doesn't fly, right? Like, you know, it's about, is it a massive tower or is it like a low apartment building? So, we just, that's โ€” I mean, we have some low-density districts, but it's just not the same.

David Roberts

Well, all the amenities I'm talking about only work with a certain level of density, right? They just don't work. If it's single-family homes or all duplexes or whatever, you gotta cram enough people in the space to activate the public spaces and whatnot.

Annemarie Gray

Correct, correct. Yeah, that's 100% true. And the one other thing I'd say is if we lived in a world where you take the entire New York City region and you had legalized missing middle housing across the entire region, like, just reality would be so different, right? Housing pressures would be so different. The pressure for one particular lot that you can finally get some housing on to be as tall as possible, it just would look different, right? And I think that, you know, if our historic preservation regulations were different, other countries have figured out how to have new buildings next to old buildings and the sky doesn't fall.

Right. What is tricky sometimes is, you know, every single new building might not check every single box we possibly want, but all of these policy changes collectively would make such a better reality for everybody. And how we figure out how to explain that and talk about that in ways that feel real is a lot of the challenge.

David Roberts

Yes, but to be clear, I'm not just talking about buildings. I'm talking about neighborhoods, basically, like transit, you know, like land use more broadly than just the building level. I mean, in a lot of American places, like kind of the horse is already out of the barn on that. It's so grim already. But like, a lot of, you know, I think if you want to bring in a bunch of density, people are only going to do it on some level if it's decently nice. How about you, Felicity?

Felicity Maxwell

So, yes, you actually said that perfectly, because zoning is more than housing is the thing. So, I like to point out that exactly we need more housing and it's a place that's added a lot of supply in a lot of, I'll just be saying, ugly buildings. Maybe we have something here called the Texas Donut, which is essentially a building that wraps around a parking garage. It's great housing, but is that really the, to your point, the pinnacle of housing in the 21st century? No, obviously it's not. But I will say I totally agree about building code reform.

We're working on single stairs reform right here now in Austin. And that's a really important thing because I think as you get past that supply tipping point, which thankfully has happened for us, you can start to think about exactly the questions you're asking. And I do really want to say that there is something fundamentally wrong with our planning when we say that the only place you can add density is along the most congested, polluted, noisy parts of the city.

David Roberts

I hate it so much.

Felicity Maxwell

I totally agree. And we have so many stroads in Texas because we love our highways.

So, I really feel that. Exactly what you're talking about. And also, it's fundamentally unfair because then you're basically saying that renters can live there, but people who own single-family homes get to have quiet neighborhoods.

David Roberts

It's segregation.

Felicity Maxwell

It is. So, like, I just want to totally acknowledge that that is an issue. But I think we're right now in the supply crisis, so we can't really start to think about the nuance of what it looks like when we have a better version of supply. But I do hope that we will get there. And I think to your point, that requires a lot of infill and thoughtful development that we just haven't seen.

And guess why we haven't seen it? Because neighborhood preservationists don't let us even think about it. Like, the people with the T-shirts show up and they're angry because you want to put gentle density in their neighborhood. So, I think this comes back full circle to where we started. In some ways, we've done great with supply in a lot of maybe easier places, but the really beautiful supply that we might want for the central part of our neighborhoods or next to those nice parts, that's trickier. And I don't think we've gotten there yet.

David Roberts

Yes, and another thing that new density needs is transit. You know, if you want people to โ€” you're removing parking requirements, which is part of what's enabling you to build more units on those little lots. You know, if you don't have to have a set number of parking spaces, but if you're going to get rid of a bunch of parking, you need other ways to get around. And I just wonder, like, are both of you, do you both also consider yourselves transit activists, or is it just like you have enough on your plate and you hope the transit activists do their job?

Felicity Maxwell

I think it's actually a great question, and AURA, the group that I've been involved with for a long time, we literally call ourselves pro-housing, pro-transit. That's our job. And I will say in Austin, because we've never had the opportunity to have really robust transit, we are eventually going to get a train. We always knew that you had to advocate for the trains and better transit, and that requires a certain level of density. And I think to your point, now we're at this place where, okay, the train is theoretically coming, assuming we continue to fund trains at the federal level, which that's maybe, we don't know yet, but assuming the train is coming, that means we have to actually think critically for the first time what does it look like if you have that train?

What does the housing look like? What does the environment look like? And so, we have this chance to be transformative.

David Roberts

Don't do what Seattle did, which is put a train on your highway.

Felicity Maxwell

So, I will say, I think that that's the exciting thing about the next phase is not just that supply. It's a better version of that supply. And to your point, linked to transit hopefully.

David Roberts

Annemarie, the New York City transit situation is somewhat unique in the country in that you already have some. But how do you think about this?

Annemarie Gray

Yes, and I think this is where we're a little different. One, our members, so many of our members are also transit activists. My partner works in transit, so it's all very much the same family. But I think what's different about New York and, if we're talking about the New York City region, I think parts of upstate western New York are a little different, but we actually already have this infrastructure. It's one of the most incredible things about New York is the transit system. And actually, the problem is there are stations, especially further out in the suburbs, that are losing ridership because they're not building housing.

And we think about the whole network in a somewhat comprehensive way. We have zero region-wide housing planning that actually uses the capacity of the most miraculous, incredible system in the country right now. And we still have fights in New York City about building more. I mean, again, we have a lot of apartment buildings in most places, but we have some low-density districts and even just mid-density districts. They still fight about building higher density when you're next to a train station โ€”

David Roberts

That is just madness.

Annemarie Gray

that's 15 minutes away from Grand Central.

David Roberts

If there's one obvious, I mean if there's just one thing that no one should be arguing about, build up around your transit stations. Not to, you know, this podcast is not intended to be a Seattle gripe fest, but like we put, we've spent billions of dollars on light rail and we're putting all our stations next to the interstate and we're barely upzoning around them. Like the station that's closest to my house has a friggin' golf course right next to it. It's just like, it's a nature preserve. That's what they'll say if you try to get rid of it.

Like, "What about all the birds?" It's just unbelievable. But, building up around transit is just an utter no-brainer.

Annemarie Gray

And also, really tying that, like that is climate strategy. Like that is really, really making sure how closely these all tie together because we need all of the activists and all of the advocates to see these all as connected.

David Roberts

Yes, this is like I was going to put this in the intro, but it would have made the intro too long. Just like, why am I talking about housing on a climate solutions podcast? But I think that sort of deserves its own dedicated podcast just to sort of make the case at length. Like this is a climate issue, but that's sort of, that's implicit in everything we're talking about. And implicit in the reason I'm talking with you is this is, among other things, how you cut emissions. So, I could talk to you all forever. But just one final question, which is: what is next?

What is next, Annemarie? What is next for New York?

Annemarie Gray

We're in the middle of a state legislative session. We're trying to really, really break through and start to pass this bill. They're working on the YIGBY bill and then build from there. I mean, a region-wide transit-oriented development bill is definitely on our radar. And then at the city level, again kind of post city bs. We're in a year of a mayoral election, but there's actually, we're doing some work around. There are two commissions looking at the city charter and we're really thinking about, there are things you could only do with charter reform that you otherwise need State legislation that get at exactly these same incentives that are built into our land use review process. That and then we're making endorsements for a lot of our races happening this year to try to really build more pro-housing champions and truly expanding our footprint to organizing statewide.

David Roberts

New York has not always had the best of luck in its mayoral choices. If I could โ€”

Annemarie Gray

Understatement, understatement, understatement.

David Roberts

Is there a chance that you're going to get an actual pro-housing, pro-transit champion out of that process this time? Dare we hope?

Annemarie Gray

I'm still young, but I've worked in this long enough to moderate my expectations about the quality of our politicians. But, come back to me in a couple of months.

David Roberts

We'll see. All right. All right, we'll see. How about Felicity? What's next in Austin, Texas?

Felicity Maxwell

So, we're in a similar sprint through the Texas legislative session, which will end in June, and we have a myriad, a smorgasbord of housing bills. We'll see how far we get with some of them. But our goal is to definitely have two to three, hopefully, bills passed by June and supported and make those official. And I think that will make a huge launching pad for us as an organization. It's also just kind of really bringing the pro-housing movement statewide. That is actually also the focus is to be building up the work that we've done in Austin to replicate that in other major cities in Texas and also to be thinking about what does it look like to be pro-housing in sort of, I don't want to say smaller, but certainly places where maybe that housing crunch isn't as acute, but it's there.

I think Annemarie touched on regional housing planning and a lot of other things we have some great ideas of. What does it look like once you've gotten past this initial hump, or you have a good start? What comes next? I think that does look like state housing plans. Where do we need more supply? How can we be thoughtful about helping communities that are smaller but still struggling with housing? What does it look like to have housing in more Latino and border areas? It's a big state with lots of challenging problems, but we'll be here working on it, hopefully for the foreseeable future.

David Roberts

This is awesome. It's so rare I get to talk about good news and good things happening and people winning. It's like a little island of goodness here. So, I don't want it to end, but we're over time. So, thank you two so much not only for coming on and walking us through this, but for all your work. It is God's work you're doing. So, Annemarie Gray, Felicity Maxwell, thank you so much.

Felicity Maxwell

Thank you.

Annemarie Gray

Thank you for having us.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Volts community thread #15

Davidโ€™s Notes

1. ๐Ÿ“ซ Leave your mailbag questions below! Thereโ€™s a lot of stuff to talk about. (All you paid subscribers, donโ€™t forget to check out Januaryโ€™s mailbag โ€” and thanks for your feedback on the clips episode experiment. Stay tuned on that.)

2. ๐Ÿ›ฃ๏ธ Canary Media is throwing a shindig in Chicago on March 27th and Iโ€™ll be joining them to interview Rep. Sean Casten on stage about [waves hands] all of this. These events are always a hoot โ€” I love meeting subscribers and fellow energy nerds. As always, weโ€™ve set aside a handful of free tickets for paid subscribers: register your interest here. Youโ€™ll probably get a ticket if you register, unless demand is nuts, in which case winners will be chosen at random.

Paid tickets are also available to anyone & everyone here.

3. โœ๏ธ In last month's mailbag, I discussed the idea of making introductory content for Volts. Iโ€™m probably not going to do that, but I should have mentioned that Volts subscriber (and philosophy professor) Jeffrey Seidman has developed a wonderful set of gateway pages for people who are looking for digestible introductions to these topics. Thereโ€™s a section on climate solutions and a section on climate careers, designed for students (but anyone, really) looking to wrap their heads around what needs to be done and how they can contribute. Plus there are tons of links to Volts pods throughout. Great place to send people looking to get started.

4. ๐Ÿ’Ž My recent conversation with Fervoโ€™s Tim Latimer featured some talk about diamond drill bits and it got me wondering what diamond drill bits actually look like. They are, sadly, not particularly bedazzled:

Still, drilling with diamonds is pretty cool. If you want to read about drill bit learning curves โ€” and you know you do โ€” check out this new piece on the evolution of polycrystalline diamond drilling from Construction Physics:

5. โœ… Community comment of the month: Craig chimes in with some skepticism regarding a claim on the recent pumped hydro episode:

I believe Erikโ€™s statement that pumped hydro accounts for 90% of grid storage might be based on out of date data, as battery storage has grown dramatically over the last four years. A May 2024 article on โ€œRenewEconomyโ€ website titled โ€œBattery storage is about to overtake global capacity of pumped hydroโ€ indicates that on a global basis pumped hydro made up 90% of grid storage in 2020, but by 2023 it was down to 68% and expected to end 2024 at 56% and that battery storage would surpass pumped hydro in 2025.

I lost another wallet & ID to this little monster.
I lost another wallet & ID to this little monster.

Monthly Thread โ€” How It Works

This is your monthly opportunity to share! Use the comments section in this community thread to:

  • CLIMATE JOBS & OPPORTUNITIES: Share climate jobs/opportunities

  • SHARE WORK, ASK FOR HELP, FIND COLLABORATORS: Share your climate-related work, ask for help, or find collaborators

  • CLIMATE EVENTS & MEETUPS: Share climate-related events and meetups

  • EVERYTHING ELSE: Discuss Davidโ€™s Notes or anything else climate-related

  • MAILBAG QUESTIONS: Ask a question for this monthโ€™s mailbag episode (anyone can ask a question but mailbags are a paid-sub-only perk). Volts has a form for those who are shy, but David prioritizes questions posted in this thread.

๐Ÿšจ To keep organized, please only โ€œREPLYโ€ directly under one of Samโ€™s headline comments. Anything inappropriate, spammy, etc may be deleted. Be nice! Check out our Community Guidelines.

Volts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Austin's quest to reach net zero

At this live event in Austin, Texas, I was joined by Austin Energy executives Lisa Martin and Michael Enger to discuss how a progressive municipal utility charts a course to clean energy in Texas. We explore their multi-pronged approach to reaching 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2035, from expanding distributed energy resources and battery storage to piloting first-of-its-kind geothermal technology.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Hi, hi, hi! This is Volts for February 14, 2025, "Austin's quest to reach net zero." I'm your host, David Roberts. In January, Canary Media held two live events in Texas, one in Austin and one in Houston. At both of them, I recorded podcasts for you folks!

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This one, from Austin, is a conversation with Lisa Martin and Michael Enger, who are, respectively, the chief operating officer and the VP of energy market operations and resource planning for Austin Energy, the city's municipal utility.

Lisa Martin & Michael Enger
Lisa Martin & Michael Enger

Austin Energy has adopted a goal of electricity decarbonization by 2035, and it is located in a city, Austin, that is targeting total citywide decarbonization by 2040.

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How is it doing on those goals? What technologies is it drawing on? And why is it still building new natural gas plants? We dig into all of this and more, with a few spicy audience questions thrown in at the end. Enjoy.

Lisa Hymas

This is David Roberts, he is the founder and journalist behind Volts, which is a podcast and a newsletter that you all should be following. Welcome, David. Thank you for being here. We're also excited to have two folks from Austin Energy with us today. Lisa Martin is deputy general manager and chief operating officer, welcome, Lisa. And Michael Enger is VP of energy market operation and resource planning. So thank you all for being here and let's kick things off.

Michael Enger

Thank you.

David Roberts

Hi, everybody. Thanks for coming. I'm sorry to be sitting here awkwardly looking at my phone. Normally, when I do this, I'm in my home office in my underwear, and nobody's looking at me. So, I don't know how to do this in public. So, Lisa, I thought it would be good to start, just to frame things, maybe to tell us what mandates Austin Energy is operating under. Some, I think, are self-chosen. And then there's the city council, and then there's state and federal stuff. So, like, what targets are you trying to hit just to frame sort of everything here?

Lisa Martin

Well, in general, we operate in a highly regulated environment. There's some federal, there's some state, there's some local. But I think what you're trying to hone in on really is related to some of our renewable energy in our carbon-free energy, clean energy, space and whatnot. And so, essentially, Austin Energy has a resource generation and climate protection plan. And the city council just adopted the most recent version of that. That's a plan that goes out to 2035 and it sets a goal of 100% carbon-free by 2035.

David Roberts

Carbon-free power generation, power use or carbon-free Austin?

Lisa Martin

Carbon-free generation as a percentage of the load that is necessary to serve the customers in Austin. And those percentages have changed over the years. They've increasingly grown. I think the first one was adopted back in 2003. And every so many years, the plans have adopted either an increasing goal for the same year or a higher goal for a higher year until you get to 100%. And then that's the goal. Right.

David Roberts

And then, this is in the context, is it not, of Austin having a total decarbonization goal sort of around that? Right. Like the rest of the non-power generation stuff. Is Austin trying to get all the way?

Lisa Martin

Yeah. So, Austin also has a climate equity plan, and the goal there is net zero by 2040.

David Roberts

2040. So, that's pretty pressing. Can you give us a sense of what the current portfolio looks like? The current Austin Energy portfolio? Like, where is Austin getting its energy now, roughly?

Lisa Martin

Yeah, that's Mike's space.

Michael Enger

Sure. So, we have a very diversified portfolio right now. We are a one-sixth owner of the South Texas Nuclear project, which is the nuclear power plant down near Bay City. We own about 600 megawatts of coal that we run very low through environmental dispatch. We have about 800 megawatts of natural gas here in the Austin area. That's a combination of a combined cycle as well as 10 peaking units. We have a wood waste facility out in East Texas, Nacogdoches, the biomass plant. We have about 1800 megawatts of wind under contract. And that's throughout the state, mostly west and down along the coast and then in South Texas.

And then we have about 975 megawatts of utility-scale solar throughout the state as well, with about 175 right here in Austin.

David Roberts

Right. And so, just to be clear how things were, you are purchasing power from ERCOT, right? Like any ERCOT customer, basically. So, you have a choice of any ERCOT resource.

Michael Enger

So, the way ERCOT works is, you are offering in all of your generation on offer curves, and then it is using security constrained economic dispatch to optimize the overall generation fleet to serve all of Texas. And then, we are buying all of our load from ERCOT. So, you sell all of your generation into ERCOT, and then you buy all of your load from ERCOT.

David Roberts

I guess one question, maybe this is naive or dumb, but if you're trying to get to 100% clean, it seems like within the state of Texas, cumulatively there's enough clean energy to satisfy Austin. So, why couldn't you just buy all clean tomorrow? What's stopping you from doing that?

Lisa Martin

I'll give it a start, and then Mike will come in and fill in the details. But yeah, it's really interesting because when Mike talks about our generation portfolio, it's quite diverse in a couple of different ways. Not only in the fuel mix that he talked about, but also in the geographic location. And one of the benefits of working and operating in this ERCOT market is that we don't have to have the generation right here. You can just buy it from wherever. But as you noted, there's a ton of wind and solar and renewable and carbon-free generation in the market.

But you also have to make sure that generation can get to the load where the customers are using it. And that's not always the case. That's happening in the market. There are pricing signals that are happening in all different places. And so people just say, "Well, why don't you just contract, Mike? Why don't you just contract for more PPAs for renewable energy? You could just do that for free." Right? And the fact that the prices are constantly changing and that we're buying at the price of what generation needs to be to serve the customers in the Austin area, but we're getting paid the price that the generation is, you know, garnering wherever it's located.

And sometimes, the signals are saying, "Too much over there, not enough here." That really throws things out of whack and really makes it difficult for us to serve our customers in a reliable and affordable way. What would you add to that, Mike?

Michael Enger

I think it was perfect.

David Roberts

Another consideration that just occurred to me is, how big of a piece of the puzzle are transmission costs? Because, of course, wind out in East Texas is dirt cheap, like below zero sometimes, but then you have to pay to get it over here. How big are those costs as a โ€” ?

Michael Enger

Yeah, so when you do a power purchase agreement to buy a renewable, you are going to pay a fixed price for every megawatt they produce, and then you're going to get back the market price. So when you see wind below zero out in West Texas, that may not be beneficial for our rates. For example, you typically see prices the lowest when the intermittent resources are generating the most. And so, that can start to put potential pressure on rates. So, I would say that that's maybe part of it. But transmission costs are under what is called a t-cost where transmission is still a regulated market, and it's uplifted to everybody in the state.

I think last year, the net cost to Austin Energy on transmission costs was a little bit over $90 million. So, there's a significant amount of transmission cost and investment going to be able to move all the electrons to the places in the state where we need it.

David Roberts

At least in theory, there's a case to be made for the merits of local energy then, right? Is there not? I was going to get to this later, but let's just go there now. There's a value of solar โ€” so just to back up a little bit for context in case everybody has not been keeping up with these things. Big fights over net metering and solar: How much do you pay residential and commercial consumers for the solar power they generate? Every utility in the country, practically, is fighting over this. The rates are getting lowered here and there. And you, I think, or Texas did a big value of solar proceeding to figure this out.

And then also, there's the... I can't remember the name of it. Mike, help me out. The solar offer?

Michael Enger

The Solar Standard Offer.

David Roberts

Thank you. The Solar Standard Offer. So, maybe tell about this standard solar offer in the context of the value of solar proceeding.

Michael Enger

Sure. So, we often will go out and do purchase power agreements for renewables. We do have a value of solar program for residential. If they want to put solar panels on their roof, we'll pay them for what they produce and then we'll charge them our retail rate for what they consume. Oftentimes, there are situations in Boston where the individual who owns the building is not the person paying the electric bill. That's the renters or the tenants or who's leasing the building. And so, there is kind of a differential in values there for the lessee versus the building owners.

What a Solar Standard Offer does is, it produces a rate we're willing to buy that power from and allow developers to maybe go out and lease some of those spaces on the roofs of buildings and parking lots in order to get more local solar here to help benefit our community and kind of get away from what is referred to as a "split incentive."

David Roberts

And, are there... This is a bit of a niche question, but recently on my pod, I had a discussion with a guy named Pier LaFarge who โ€” there's this long-running tension in the clean energy world where it seems like utilities are somewhat hostile to distributed energy resources. This fight back and forth โ€” are not hostile but do not properly value. And so, his solution is just, why don't utilities just procure distributed energy resources? And that way, they could, instead of just reacting to them coming online, wherever they come online, and whenever they come online, they could have some control of like, "We need a bunch here, like, you know, the grid's congested here."

Procure DERs in an active way. Has there been any discussion of that at Austin?

Lisa Martin

As a matter of fact, that particular podcast was homework for one of my staff meetings so we could have a conversation about how we could continue to think about readying the grid for more and more of what we call customer energy solutions, distributed energy resources. I'm going to take the long way around to get to the answer to your question.

David Roberts

Please, that is the podcast way.

Lisa Martin

But as you noted just a few moments ago, there is a real argument for the value of local generation. And that generation can come in all different shapes and sizes. And yes, we do want to make the best use of all of the different variety of resources that are available across the state. But what we have is a real problem where we need to make sure we can serve our customers. Our mission is to provide safe, clean, affordable, and reliable energy and excellent customer service. We're a vertically integrated utility in the deregulated ERCOT market, and we are focused on what our community needs and they want all of those things.

By the way, they say, "As you go for that clean energy transition, make sure that it's equitable too." So, we have to be thinking about a lot of different variables here and trying to manage them all. All that to be said, prioritizing customer energy solutions like the rooftop solar, the battery storage, the electric vehicles in people's garages, the demand response, energy efficiency, that is the priority. That's the first part of our resource generation plan. And Austin Energy has been a leader in that area for a very, very, very long time. And so, what I'm ultimately looking to get at is that when people say, "Hey, wait," โ€” I was actually surprised at the very end of that podcast where the guy says, "Well, there's actually a sweetness in the utility because they're trying to work through these complex areas."

And you were like, "I don't ever hear people describe utilities that way." And I was like, "What do you mean? Why don't people love us? We were just here trying to help you provide work for the community. We are public power. We are you." Right. And so then I was like, "Oh, wait a second, wait. Okay, got it. That's not the way everyone thinks about it." And sometimes they just mix us up with... Not that all utilities are bad, but IOUs who have this built-in profit margin and whatnot.

David Roberts

Yeah, I think IOUs were mostly the targets of...

Lisa Martin

I know, I heard it. But I loved when he said, "There's a sweetness in it." I was like, "Yeah, a lot of hardworking people trying to do what's best for the community." And the community wants distributed resources. And that's a huge part of what we do and prioritize, figuring out the right value to make sure that we can not only integrate those resources into our system, but that Mike's real-time desk can use them appropriately on the market to make sure that they can extract the most value to keep costs down for our customers and that we can still provide reliable power.

It's kind of all part of the equation.

David Roberts

Yeah, so Mike, how do distributed energy resources interact, if at all, with the wholesale ERCOT market? Because you can aggregate them and bid into the markets, right? So, are you procuring DERs through the wholesale market, or are you trying to sell DERs into the wholesale market? How do those things have anything to do with each other?

Michael Enger

So, we have a few different ways we approach that. I would say one is aggregating like demand response, for example, which isn't maybe distributed energy resources. It helps us reduce our โ€”

David Roberts

You're acting as the aggregator, the utility is acting as the aggregator, right?

Michael Enger

We work through a third party, and then we dispatch, but we aggregate that together. That will help us reduce load. So, I mentioned we buy all of our load from ERCOT, and we sell our generation in, so we're able to reduce load. That lowers the overall cost that we're spending. We are also looking at aggregating other resources. Some resources could be settlement-only generators. If it's large enough, it can settle into the wholesale market, and we'll represent those as a qualified scheduling entity. We're also looking at another program. We have customers that are very interested in resiliency and backup generation for when we do have some of these extreme weather events that were mentioned earlier.

We can help, benefit, and work together. It is cheaper for them to put in a diesel generator for backup, which has much worse air quality. But we can partner together and look to have them install natural gas generation. But then, we should be able to call upon that for a handful of hours, maybe 200 hours a year for those really scarce events where, as we talked about, the sun is predictable with solar. But sometimes, we do get through those periods where we don't necessarily have that sunny period, or we have periods where we don't have windy periods or the sun's going down and there's not enough wind, and we end up with these really tight ramping issues.

And that's where we can lean on that and benefit everybody in Austin. So, we can help the customers that are customer-driven and want that resiliency because of some of the winter experiences they have had. We can help make that a cleaner solution for everybody in Austin. And then we can leverage that and use that during those really scarce events to lower rates for everybody in Austin so that we have another way we're looking to utilize distributed energy resources.

David Roberts

So, the idea is that during those tight times, you can call on those households basically to consume less or to release more out of their batteries, or โ€”

Michael Enger

To consume less or use backup generation to produce more.

David Roberts

Do you have enough of that now that it is like a substantial tool in the toolbox or is it still kind of pilot-y?

Michael Enger

We're looking to grow it.

Lisa Martin

Yes, I will say that several years ago, I got to work on a project. It was DOE grant-funded, called the Austin SHINES Project. The SHINES stands for Sustainable Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV.

David Roberts

Well done.

Lisa Martin

DOE acronym, a DOE acronym. And we looked at integrating battery storage solar at three different levels along the utility value scale. We were looking at residential, commercial, and what I would say utility scale, but it was at the distribution level. And then sometimes we were doing lots of different types of controls. Sometimes it was autonomous control, set it and forget it on the smart inverter on someone's solar PV. Sometimes it was third-party aggregated controls, and sometimes it was utility control. And this information is a little dated now, but that study, if you will, really helped show the value of distributed resources, but also realizing that they all have different use cases at different times.

And when you can find a management system that can optimize them, the magic to me is in the control of it. You got to not only monitor it, but also be able to control it. Is the DERM system and is Mike chasing price spikes or is he doing energy arbitrage or is it congestion management or voltage support? All of them have values in different ways. I keep hearing different people and entities talk about one or two. I think for it to really take off, we got to kind of try to stack all those values together.

David Roberts

Yeah, and EVs are part of that too. Are you guys trying to induce EVs? Or more to the point, the EVs that are out there โ€” this is a worry of utilities everywhere, as you've got basically giant loads wandering around totally out of your control, you know, swamping the grid at certain times. Are you doing anything to try to sort of coordinate EV charging or use EVs as an asset rather than a liability?

Michael Enger

Yeah, we do managed charging today where we could reduce the charging during peak times or times that we need to. And we're also studying vehicle to grid as well through a small pilot project.

David Roberts

And what about speaking of my other pods, as I so painfully often do, what about also taking off, specifically taking off here in Texas is this idea of virtual power plants, which is just aggregators, like we were saying, but you know, on a larger scale and big utility scale, are those on your radar? Are you procuring power from big VPPs out there in Texas?

Michael Enger

We're working on a project to define scoping for that DERM system that would allow and facilitate that virtual power plant. And we're working on incentives to get more batteries out and distributed throughout Austin so that we have more control and can really manage that. So, that is something on the radar, something we're working towards right now.

David Roberts

I guess all my questions have been sort of circling around this, which is that it seems like there are lots of, you know, so the big problem with renewables, if you want to see it as a problem, is variability. You need to fill in the gaps. You need something to smooth it out. Traditionally, that role has been played by natural gas. But now we're starting to see alternatives to natural gas coming online, including VPPs, including DERs, including geothermal, which I want to talk about in a minute. So, why are you proposing to build new natural gas plants?

Lisa Martin

That was the ultimate question we got asked over and over again. It's not at all new. First, I would say that what we were trying to do, and what we did, was the resource generation climate protection plan is a policy document and it had a prohibition against any new fossil fuel resource. We're trying to say that we need to make sure that we have all the tools in our toolbox to be able to mitigate all the various types of risks that we see. The risks are real.

Sometimes, it's on the wire side, the transmission congestion, sometimes it's the financial risk in the ERCOT market, sometimes it's the extreme weather or it's the load growth that we're talking about. And all these things are coming and hitting us in a number of different ways. We are experiencing a very different energy landscape than when our last resource generation plan was adopted in 2020, which was before COVID, it was before Winter Storm Yuri, it was before the ice storm of 2023, Winter Storm Mara, that anyone in Austin felt drastically as well. And so, lots of things had changed and we needed to make sure that we kind of opened the doors to provide some flexibility for us to be able to evolve and move through the changing energy landscape.

And so, the plan sets forth four major buckets. Prioritizing customer energy solutions is first and foremost. Developing local solutions is next. One of those local solutions, in addition to local solar and local utility-scale batteries, is more efficient natural gas peaker units. They're just an important tool in the toolbox because, as you said, there's variability. People say, "Why not batteries?" Well, there's a duration situation, especially in an extreme weather situation. Plus, they can help us mitigate the financial risks. So, it's about using them smartly, using them when they're needed. And right now, the tools in our toolbox, Michael said, are about 800 megawatts of current natural gas.

A lot of those are peakers. Most of that's peakers, but they're old technology, they're not as efficient. So, why not? We're going to fill the gap. We've got a need, we needed it yesterday. They could have paid for themselves and some of the congestion costs that we had to pass on to our customers. Then, why not try to stop that bleeding and then continue towards our commitment to decarbonization? That's a huge component of the plan. And the last and final bookend of it is furthering the culture of innovation to make sure that we're adopting the evolving and maturing technologies that are going to continue to emerge that help us reach those clean energy goals.

David Roberts

Did your plan not also involve delaying the shutdown of some of those older natural gas plants?

Michael Enger

Yeah, I mean, the plan that passed did mention we will not prematurely shut down natural gas plants here locally until we have viable solutions for that replacement. Newer, more efficient peaking units could be part of that viable solution. And just one other thing I might add is having peaking units in the right location also makes us a viable black start utility. What a black start utility is, is there is a handful of utilities that if the whole grid does fail, which we hope it never happens, they're the ones putting it back together. And if that ever did occur, we want to be part of the solution.

We don't want to be sitting on the sidelines waiting for other people to fix the problem.

David Roberts

Well, Lisa sort of already asked this question in her answer, but I'll just pick it out and amplify it. I was looking at the portfolio and it said you have three megawatts of battery storage.

Lisa Martin

Yay, SHINES.

David Roberts

Which I first thought was an error, I had to go find a second source to verify. Like, that seems crazy to me. Why is that not 300? Why is that three and not 300? Why not batteries? Because batteries can do this. That's what they're for. They can come on. And duration is just a quantity question. You know what I mean? Have enough. You can have battery power for a long time. So why is the battery โ€” why do you have so little battery power now? And why not just double down on that?

Lisa Martin

So we're going to have slightly different answers. They're not going to be competing. They're just slightly different answers. So I'm going to go first and let Mike fill in the gaps. When I say "Yay, SHINES", I know people are like โ€” I used to stand in front of people and say, "Well, we have these goals." One of the old gen plans had a goal that had 10 megawatts. And someone would say "10 megawatts?" And this was like, I don't know, 2016, 2017. They're like, "That's your goal?" And I was like, "I'm trying to get the three megawatts off the ground."

Like, you know, because when you're dealing with the small ones, right? I mean, there's a lot of a learning curve there. That said, right, people are building them in hundreds of megawatts, right? And so then it's a question about space. So, I just want to clarify that that 3 megawatts does not count the amount that's on the sides of people's homes, right? That's just the culmination of the two utility-scale smaller batteries that we have in the Austin area.

David Roberts

Utility-scale battery installations: In front of or behind the meter?

Lisa Martin

They're in front of the meter, yeah. They're connected directly to the distribution feeder and they're about 1.5 megawatts each. And one's in the Mueller neighborhood. And different technologies and lots of learning curves and challenges. What we found there, though, was that the value when we did the analysis in SHINES was that the value of investing and putting more of those โ€” sometimes people say they're substation batteries, right? They're of a certain size. They're connected to the distribution grid. Less than 10 megawatts. In this case, I think there was actually a study by the Webber Energy group that talked about keeping them less than a megawatt.

And that's where you get the value, which is true because it helps reduce the 4CP cost. But essentially, the value we were receiving from them in terms of operating in the market, it wasn't offsetting the costs. And so, we didn't continue to build out more of that. Now, why don't we have a bigger battery storage system in Austin? Mike can talk about that. And then, you can also just kind of maybe open the curtain to the battery storage RFP.

Michael Enger

Sure. So, we did look at a very, very large utility-scale battery right here in Austin back in 2021, 2022. Ultimately, because of some of the uncertainty that was going on in the supply chain and tariff risks, we had to take a pause until we redid the resource plan. After this resource plan was approved, we do have large battery goals for local utility-scale batteries, and we are planning to issue an RFP hopefully on Thursday, January 30th, is what my team tells me. But we'd like to get that out before the end of the month, giving people about eight weeks.

"And we're looking to do 100 to 150 megawatts, two to four-hour duration battery right here in Austin. And we'll be looking to take that back to city council for approval this summer."

David Roberts

And that would be a big single installation, not an aggregation of consumer batteries?

Michael Enger

Well, we are going to request proposals and then we'll look to optimize the projects in the best, most capital-efficient way to meet our customers' needs.

David Roberts

So am I right then in thinking that if you're committed to total decarbonization by 2035, you're implicitly committed to shutting these new natural gas plants down by 2035, are you not?

Lisa Martin

The answer is yes and no. And every time I say that and pause, there gets to be a huge chuckle from the audience because the goal is 100% carbon-free as a percentage of load. And then people go, "Oh well, that means you're trying to sneak around the back and say you just want to still keep these things running and whatnot." The idea is โ€” between "Can we shut down those units now?" or "Can we predict today that in 2035 we can shut them down?" โ€” it's going to depend on what other resources are available to help us provide clean, affordable, and reliable energy to our customers.

What the plan says is 100% as a percentage of load. The intent, the goal, is to have the supply stack as well. But we adopted the phrase from Dr. Michael Webber and threw it in our plan as well, "Do your best and clean up the rest." And so, if technology doesn't allow us to get there, then what can we do to make sure that the emissions coming from the stacks are as minimal as possible, as little as possible, to essentially get to the equivalent thereof? And time will tell because there's 10 years between now and then.

And we got to see how that culture of innovation continues to adapt and adopt.

David Roberts

Can you shut them or can ERCOT, like, once you open that and they're running, cannot ERCOT just come in and say you have to keep running them? Like, is it yours? Do you have the final decision over whether they shut down or how they operate?

Lisa Martin

I got this question a ton during the resource generation plan as well. Do you want to start? You are going simpler than I am.

Michael Enger

You submit a notice of suspension of operations, and then ERCOT will look at the reliability site, and they can RMR (Reliability Must Run) that unit and put it under contract. In that case, ERCOT runs the contract or pays the cost of the plant and has you operate as they dictate or for reliability purposes. But those typically tend to be shorter in nature while they find another solution because everybody pays for that Reliability Must Run contract.

Lisa Martin

Yeah, and I want to just throw in there. So, it's considered an out-of-market condition, right? It's done for a reliability purpose. They have to be able to prove that there's a reason for it. As Michael said, there's a short duration for it. It's something you don't want to happen. It's an unwanted outcome. And so, what happened is when we were talking to city council and stakeholders in the community, people would just say, "Oh, well, you have no control over it if it gets built, there's absolutely positively zero control. ERCOT can say you run it anytime you want, or they could say you have to keep it running no matter what."

And that's simply just not the way that the mechanism works. It's to handle a short term โ€” because it's the only thing else that's out there. And there are mechanisms that are being put into the ERCOT market to reduce the use of both RMR units and RUC (Reliability Unit Commitment) units, which is when they tell you to turn it on because you have to, because it's the requirement.

David Roberts

I actually appreciate you not saying, "Oh, we're just going to run them on clean hydrogen." But I'm going to give you a chance to say that now if you want to. But do you โ€” how realistic do you think green hydrogen is? Is it realistic enough that you're including it in your plans in a meaningful way, or is it just more of a wait and see thing?

Michael Enger

I think we're constantly looking at all of the available technologies and monitoring the market and looking to see if that can be a reality. I think in reality, you're going to need more of a hydrogen economy in an area to make it work with multiple demand off-takers and customers. I will say that, you know, there was a big push on the rules around that to where it's not even needs to be made by wind and solar anymore. That if you use nuclear and it's low carbon, that you may be able to qualify for the whole credit.

And I believe you're already seeing some people in Texas working towards that. So, I think it's something we're going to monitor, keep watching. It does have some benefits, it has some challenges, but there are multiple technologies that we constantly monitor and look at, and see when they're ready to delve into.

David Roberts

When are you going to escape coal? It seems like that ought to be job one for any decarbonizing utility. You got this lingering coal bit left. And I believe in your new plan you extended that. Do you have a target date for being able to say, "We're coal free" here?

Lisa Martin

Yeah, so we don't have a crystal ball. So, we don't have a target date. And when you say "We extended it," we didn't exactly extend it. We just missed the date before, because the old plan said "shut it down by 2022" and there was no viable path to get that shut down. So, by saying in our plan that we're reaffirming our commitment to exiting coal and using the REACH program in the meantime, and I'll let Mike talk about REACH in a second, people say, "Well, you're extending the deadline." We're like, "Well, the date passed." So, I mean, it is what it is and we are letting you know that we're reaffirming that commitment.

And one of the questions you asked earlier about like, "Why peakers?" and we were giving you all these reasons why. The one that when Mike threw in, "Oh yeah, blackstart." And I was going to say, and we need that local supply, whatever it is. Right. And maybe it'll come in the form of demand response and energy efficiency and local storage and local solar. But I think it's going to also have to come โ€” to get all the variables of risk mitigation together โ€” I think it's going to have to also come in the form of some peakers that we have to make sure we have that set up so that we can affordably and reliably exit coal because of the nature of that plant, because its legacy prior to ERCOT deregulating, it's almost financially acts and operates as if it's sitting locally.

So, it acts as a financial hedge in some ways. I'll let Mike kind of correct me or rough around the edges on some of that, and then talk a little bit about REACH and what we're doing in the meantime.

Michael Enger

Sure, yeah. So, with REACH, which is Reduce Emissions Affordably for Climate Health we look at valuing the cost of carbon to our community or a cost of carbon in our community to meet our goals. And we put that into our dispatch into the ERCOT market. And so, we typically run that unit down at what's known as the low sustainable limit. That's the lowest a plant can run and stay online. And we keep it down there. And through doing that, since March of 2020, we have reduced over 6 million metric tons that otherwise would have been produced and emitted.

But then, there's also those times when the market gets very, very scarce where the wind or solar is not as abundant and prices can go very, very high. And in those situations, it really helps us protect the rates for our customers and maintain that financial viability. So, it's a great mechanism rather than a mandate. It's a market-based solution to meet two different goals that are maybe competing a little bit from time to time.

David Roberts

It seems like one thing you could do if the Texas grid gets congested is, there's a whole country around you that you're not connected to. Obviously, that's not your decision, but I just wonder if you have opinions on whether it would be easier for you to do what you're trying to do if ERCOT were integrated into the larger country grid. We're not an island.

Lisa Martin

Aren't we in the heart of Texas? It really becomes difficult because we're not talking about being on the edge of our grid where a connection could help. When I think about some of our real current day problems, I don't see that solving Austin Energy's and our customers' problems because we have to work on increasing the import capacity even just into our service territory. And then across the service territory, do we have the appropriate voltage support to push the power across our service territory? I know that's not answering your question, it's really a cop-out by saying, "I'm in the middle, I can't be around it."

But it's a policy discussion and decision. And so, I don't know that I have the easiest operational answer for you.

Michael Enger

I would say we are connected to the rest of the grids through DC ties. If you want to be synchronously connected, that would be a very, very large lift in cost, as well as a significant number of market rules changes, different oversight from different regulatory bodies. It's just a big, big, big endeavor to take off.

David Roberts

And there's, as far as I can tell, not even a germ of a seed of a movement to make it happen. So, it's probably not even worth talking about. So, speaking of clean, firm technologies that can step in and fill the gaps in renewables without creating additional emissions, tell us a little about the advanced geothermal project you're messing around with and where you think that might lead.

Michael Enger

Sure. So, we're very excited about this technology and to see if this technology can work and overcome any challenges that we may experience along the way. Anytime you do something for the first time, you're probably going to come across something you were not expecting. But traditional geothermal utilizes water as the fluid that you use to make the steam to push the turbine. This would actually use CO2 in its supercritical form. And so, the advantage of this geothermal is you could potentially put it in many different locations. You don't have to find โ€”

David Roberts

Is that closed loop?

Michael Enger

It's closed loop, yes. And so it actually leverages some of the carbon capture and sequestration credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. But it's also a neat way โ€” I think we talked a little bit earlier about, or I heard earlier about, moving oil and gas jobs into that new green economy. It's the same skill set drilling for oil or drilling for natural gas to then drill these geothermal plants. And that's actually where this company started. They were drilling oil and gas and have moved into this geothermal area. So we're pretty excited about it.

The other great thing about that is, since they have been in the oil and gas industry, they kind of know all the depths and all the heat throughout the state of Texas. So, we can start identifying different areas where you can drill lower or less depth to get there, which is where a lot of the cost is. And so, if it is able to work the way we'd like it to work, and we can overcome all those challenges and we can scale it up, I think it can change the energy landscape of Texas. I think much like wind and solar have eroded the economics of coal and pushed them out of the market, geothermal would have the potential to do that for natural gas combined cycles and give us good baseload generation and as well as potentially do it much quicker and at a lower capital cost than nuclear.

So, you're going to get a lot of the same benefits that baseload carbon-free generation, but you're going to be able to do it faster and cheaper, hopefully.

David Roberts

Yes, are there other closed-loop CO2-based geothermal projects operating anywhere, or is this a real first?

Michael Enger

This is a real first of its kind. At least, my understanding is a real first of its kind. They have been running a turbine down at the Southwest Research Institute on the CO2 to prove that out. And we're looking to take delivery, or not us, the developers looking to take delivery of that turbine from the manufacturer sometime in May or June.

David Roberts

And the advantage of supercritical CO2 is just it can carry a lot more energy per unit than water?

Michael Enger

It's supposed to be more efficient, and then you don't โ€” yes, you don't have to have the water, and you can go to more locations to find areas that you can do this.

David Roberts

Right. Well, you know, Fervo, the advanced geothermal company who I'll be interviewing in Houston โ€” come watch โ€” is developing a different kind of advanced geothermal, but is like cutting costs, really rapidly expanding, signing contracts. Have you talked to them at all?

Michael Enger

I did. I was down at a geothermal conference at the Southwest Research Institute and met them as well. Yeah, they are still using a little bit of โ€” they were using water in their process. I think they call it enhanced geothermal instead of advanced geothermal.

David Roberts

Yeah, all the different geothermals. But you're just leery about water because of water shortages.

Michael Enger

Water shortages also limit some of the areas where you can actually produce it. Right. So, this just opens up to more areas that we might be able to leverage this technology.

David Roberts

Interesting. One other thing that people online insisted I ask you about is your e-bike program. The people online love e-bike programs. How's that going? And, well, what's the impetus and how's it going, and are you considering expanding it?

Lisa Martin

So, I think the technical term is e-ride because it's not just bikes, it's scooters and other things. But yeah, so our electric vehicles and emerging technologies team is pretty stellar, and they find all kinds of ways to reach all kinds of markets. And, so after, you know, making sure that the bikes that are around, in and around Austin that you can just rent for a little bit are, you know, powered 100% by our Green Choice program, which is 100% wind energy and whatnot, then they're like, "Well, wait, hold on. Like not everyone can afford to buy an electric vehicle, but people still need mobility, right?"

And so, maybe the e-bike, maybe the e-ride, maybe the scooters, that's something that we should be working on as well. And so, yeah, that team developed an incentive and reached a different market. And I actually was talking to my neighbor's father-in-law the other day who was saying like, "You know, we just bought our own e-bikes and we love them." And I said, "You know, Austin Energy has a rebate." He goes, "I know, the store I bought it from just took care of it for me." And I was like, "Yeah, that's great, I'm glad to hear it."

I work for Austin Energy. And he goes, "You do? Thanks!" I was like, "Oh yeah, I can't take any credit for that." Just like that whole โ€”

David Roberts

I mean, every e-bike incentive program I'm aware of in the country is wildly oversubscribed the second they pop up. Is that true of yours as well? Are you going to blow that out a little bit? Like, I want one of these things to go beyond just being a little cute side-thing, you know what I mean?

Lisa Martin

We'll take it back. I haven't looked at any of the numbers lately to figure out where they are compared to subscription and how that's working, and what kind of ultimately incentives we can count on. It's interesting because e-bikes are electrification, which is great, but that's adding to the megawatts.

David Roberts

Same with electrifying buildings and transportation, too.

Lisa Martin

But the whole goal of this work group under Austin Energy customer energy solutions has been to reduce the megawatts. And they're actually maturing those goals and saying, "Wait, wait, no, we want all these other things." So now it's greenhouse gas avoidance. And so, how do we mature to adjust to those, to take credit for it? One of the biggest questions that council was asking as we're talking about beneficial electrification and greenhouse gas avoidance goals and things like that was, "Are you taking credit for all of the electric vehicles?" And I was like, "Sure, it makes perfect sense that we should."

Let's talk to the EMV and the soon-to-be-hired entity to make sure that can be accounted for appropriately.

David Roberts

I mean, in a sense, you're trying to decarbonize. You're sort of like โ€” the goal is receding because of electrification. I mean, it's sort of true nationally, it's true everywhere. Like you're trying to decarbonize, but also you're using more and more electricity. So it's like climbing a hill that's getting steeper as you're climbing it. This is probably an unpleasant-ish question, but it seems like Texas keeps trying to steal Austin Energy back from the people of Austin. There's a bill, it seems like every session to de... whatever you'd call it, demunicipalize Austin Energy. How big of a factor is that in the back of your head as you're choosing your policy?

Does it make you nervous? Do you worry about that? Do you worry that given national events that that is going to become more likely? How do you think about that?

Lisa Martin

So, you know, Austin is Austin and we're a special place with a special group of folks that doesn't always align with everything else in the state of Texas. But the fact is that when the legislature is in session, we have a couple hundred extra customers that are part of our community as well. And we have to make sure that we are always providing them good service and staying abreast of what they're thinking and trying to do, and navigating that. Unfortunately, the last couple of sessions, we've had some pretty significant winter storms here during the session.

So, that kind of ultimately then turns the spotlight a little bit back on you and whatnot. But yeah, we monitor and navigate and work closely with the city's intergovernmental relations office and whatnot to just navigate those waters.

David Roberts

Do you feel safe for the time being at least? Can you reassure the citizens of Austin that they're going to keep their utility for the time being?

Lisa Martin

We have an excellent city council, and the council of the whole utility oversight committee is highly engaged and wanting to listen carefully to what the community wants. And you know, we are customer-driven and community-focused, yeah.

David Roberts

I want to take some audience questions, but just a final issue and maybe this is sort of too local to be of interest to a wider audience, but you have this weird setup where you're a source of revenue for the city government. There are these big transfers of funds from Austin Energy to the city government, which seems like it would, all things being equal, make the price of power look higher. So maybe explain why that happens and what the fight about it is about and how you think that's going to resolve.

Lisa Martin

Yeah, so I mean, I'm going to start the answer to that question the way I ended the last one. We're customer-driven and community-focused, and we are โ€” Austin Energy is a department of the city of Austin. Just like the water department and the airport and whatnot. We are part of this larger community that brings the benefits to the city of Austin. It's one of the beauties of public power. And so, that's really just helping to make sure that we're paying for the parks and the libraries and all the services that make Austin, Austin and make it the city that people want to live in.

And so, we think about that as if we were an investor-owned utility, then there would be some sort of amount of dollars that go to a shareholder. And in this case, we are owned by the community. So, we contribute back to the community through this transfer as an enterprise department of the city.

David Roberts

All right. Actually, I thought of one final question. Sorry, it's a bad habit of mine. But your answer made me think of it. A lot of the people I talked to who are big proponents of local energy, including local DERs, local but also municipal utilities, a controlling entity that's close to the ground, is that you can then have your power utility cooperate with sewage and land use and land planning and building and have a more coherent approach where there's kind of more of a seamless whole and everything works together. Do you work with other Austin departments?

Do you feel like you're all helping each other and on the same page, and do you feel that sort of cooperation?

Lisa Martin

Absolutely. Yeah. So we're all one city. And when someone wants to do business in Austin, build something new, right, they don't get an option. We're going to provide them their power. Someone's going to have to give them a building permit. Someone's going to have to make sure they provide them their water. All those someones are departments of the city. So whether it's a developer of a high-rise building, a neighborhood, or just a single-family home, they need to come through the processes of the city of Austin. And you could probably ask a lot of people.

There've been a lot of pain points along the way, but our leadership, in terms of the mayor, city council, city manager, all of them have made it a priority to say, "Let's streamline this. Let's figure out how to make this better." And there's a big effort that was done to come up with some hired third party to figure out how to streamline that. Austin Energy is part and parcel of all of that as well. And we are constantly trying to take in opportunities for continuous improvement to make it a better experience, because we know it's not always easy to work through all the various steps of those processes.

Michael Enger

And we do look for synergies with other departments where we can mutually work together to meet goals. One example is we work to put the solar on top of the covered parking out at the airport and are looking to expand upon that. We've been exploring the idea of putting a solar farm on a closed landfill where you otherwise probably would not use that land for much else. So, looking for synergies there, looking at other building spaces providing structures around backup power generation for water so that we have a more reliable and resilient water supply. So, we do try to work together with departments to see where we have that overlap where we can help each other out.

Lisa Martin

Great points.

David Roberts

Another synergy might be that denser land use, as I hope everyone knows by now, involves lower energy consumption and lower greenhouse gases. Austin is also doing a bunch of cool stuff on that. I'm having an Austin YIMBY person on the pod in a couple of weeks to talk about really some extraordinary stuff there. But I just, I was just wondering, like, are you just doing that in parallel? Are you guys? Yeah. Because density seems to also serve all the goals you've laid out here in terms of reliability, et cetera, et cetera. That was editorializing on my part.

Okay, well, I'd love to hear if anybody has any questions. So, I don't just keep rambling on and on, I guess. Come down to the mics if you do.

First Audience Question

I'll say I'm glad I'm a customer of Austin Energy. I'm delighted that we are integrated and all these goals seem so good for everybody. And so, I โ€” you do a good job. But not everything's perfect. You mentioned some things. There are no signals to those of us who have electric cars for when to charge the cars. There's no time of day pricing that would incentivize someone, other than their altruism, to plug their car in at a better time for the grid. We can't participate in VPPs. There are at least three, maybe four, VPP programs going on in ERCOT wide โ€” local municipal power companies can't participate in that. It seems like an opportunity missed.

And the value of solar that we have is insufficient to justify the cost that those of us who put solar on our roofs spend. It takes 15 years to get the payback, not to mention the return on investment calculations. And I know that there are complicated formulas. I've looked at the formulas for how much other people are subsidizing who and how this all works out. But it seems like more recent analysis has shown that some of those calculations are no longer being done in the right way. So, it's mainly altruism that's driving rooftop solar in Austin, where just a little bit of tweaking could lead to a lot more.

David Roberts

It seems there are a couple of questions in there. Is time of use pricing or other rate reforms to induce this stuff on the table?

Michael Enger

I believe we had a small pilot for time of use, but I think we have a number of challenges we need to overcome to make that work. We kind of need to be everybody's on time of use or nobody's on time of use to create the equity that we're looking for throughout the city and throughout our rate structure.

David Roberts

Is that something you hope to work toward? Because when I talk to electricity nerds, this is always the thing they come back to that DERs are never going to be done in a way that is helpful to the grid until there are those temporal and geographic price signals. Is that a long-term goal?

Lisa Martin

I had a friend ask me a very similar question and I said, "Yeah, but part of the concern and the issueโ€”" I think it is a long-term goal. But I think Mike hit on a very important part, is that we have to make sure that we serve all of our customers, everyone in Austin Energy's community, and we have to make sure that there's an equitable way to do that. And it gets quite complicated when you talk to someone who's like, "Yes, I can do this and I can navigate, and I want to have exactly that thing." But then we have to make sure that we can recover all of our costs because we're ultimately passing all of those costs directly to customers.

And so, someone's going to have to pay for it. And we have to make sure that we thread that needle very carefully. So, yes, there are continual efforts to navigate and figure out how can we provide appropriate incentives to help people with not only managed charging, but also how are we calculating the right value of solar. And one of the products we talked about, the Solar Standard Offer, is something we're really excited about because it has the opportunity to scale and just continue to fund itself. So, I think there's more of that kind of stuff on the horizon.

I'm glad that you raised it, and I wish we had answers to just pull out of the pocket.

David Roberts

But the value of solar thing, is that a statewide thing or is that just you guys?

Lisa Martin

The value of solar is Austin Energy. Yeah.

David Roberts

So theoretically, it's in your power to tweak that at will, okay.

Michael Enger

And I believe the pricing of that is adjusted on a three- to five-year basis, where we do relook at that. It's adjusted as market conditions change.

David Roberts

Yeah, because as you say, there's lots of new studies. I mean, this is an endless argument. You can find people on both sides. But a lot of new research seems to show that DERs have more value than we thought. Yeah, go ahead.

Second Audience Question

So, I think everyone loves that we have a public power agency here, but I've got another structural question. Since at least 2014, when we had the new district 10/1 council, between 9 out of 11 and 11 out of 11 council members have wanted to close Fayette. Obviously, that's complicated, but โ€”

David Roberts

Fayette is the coal plant.

Second Audience Question

That's right. But from a structural perspective or systems perspective, why is it that you think if, you know, 9 of the 11 board members of the council want to do something, it's hard to get done. Is there a structural problem or is it a political problem?

Lisa Martin

I mean, structurally, we're not the sole owner of the plant. So, it's not just a matter of saying, "Oh, we're just going to plan to shut that down." So, we have to come to an agreement with our co-owner, and it has to be done in a way that makes sure that we can still meet the needs of our community.

Second Audience Question

I appreciate that. I'm not asking why we haven't done it, but I'm just asking structurally, if we have a public power agency that's democratically governed and 9 or 10 of the 11 board members want to do something, is there a gap in our message of democratic power or publicly owned power? Just at a higher level, I'm not trying to point fingers about Fayette. I'm just wondering about governance or structure, things like that. Or, you can dodge the question, I don't mind.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, it is odd that most council members, and I'm guessing most citizens of Austin, would vigorously vote to shut off coal power. And it's democratically controlled and it's municipal. How do we square that circle?

Lisa Martin

Yeah, I think the best thing I can offer you is that we in Austin Energy want to exit coal as well. And we are working feverishly to try to get to that point. We need to make sure that we reduce the emissions, as Mike has said, through the mechanism we have right now, which is to REACH as much as possible until we get to the point where we can completely remove those emissions. But in the meantime, right now, that source, which financially acts like it's within our load zone, really helps us during those extreme cases. And so we need to make sure that we have the replacement, if you will.

So, it's not just exit, it's an exit and replacement strategy. And I think that this new gen plan helps to chart the path for that.

Third Audience Question

I'd like to point out that we have really great, awesome programs. I totally applaud Austin Energy. I'm proud to be a 40-year resident of this city and I've seen these things. But, I would note that 10, 20, 30, and 40 years ago, your predecessors were saying that the things you're doing today are impossible, utopian, and overly expensive. And the activists did not get the respect, but they got the goods by opposing the South Texas nuclear project, the canceled lignite plant, and the divestment of the Fayette coal power plant. And that's the only way we've gotten these programs in line to where they're leaders.

But, my question: I see probably 100 parking garages, multi-level in the city, mostly in the downtown UT area, that are lit up all floors all night long with no cars in them. And I know it's off-peak, but surely we can do something about excess lighting, if not a mandate, some sort of incentive? Just your response on that. Thank you.

Michael Enger

Certainly, something we could look into. I would wonder if some of that had to do with safety as well. Motion sensors, potentially.

David Roberts

All right, we have two minutes left. So, we're baffled by that. We don't know how to answer that question, so we're going to go to the next one. That's going to be the final one.

Fourth Audience Question

Hi, Dave Savage with Apex Clean Energy. I'm a resident in Austin, a former Austin Energy member. I'm out in Pedernales now. But part of our strategy as a clean energy developer is what we call fuel switch, which is we work with coal plant owners and operators that are planning on retiring their coal units to replace them with wind, solar, and battery storage. We just signed a 1100 megawatt deal with Xcel Energy to replace Tolk with wind energy up in Muleshoe, Texas. And my question to you is about the Fayette coal plant. Your contract with LCRA, are you planning on terminating that contract?

If so, when? I know the mayor and the city council were very interested in doing that, and I lost track of the news threads on where that was.

David Roberts

Did we just discuss it?

Lisa Martin

We just did.

Fourth Audience Question

Yeah, I know you brought it up a second ago, but is that โ€” ?

David Roberts

Well, they're going to when they can. Is there any talk of, I mean, just for context for listeners, the reason this is an attractive model to replace coal plants with clean stuff is that the coal plants have the transmission connection already there and they often have turbines already there, which could sometimes be reused. If you were going to do a, like a geothermal or whatever, I don't know if that's in the cards for the Fayette plant or if anybody's talking about that.

Lisa Martin

I think there's a lot of different potentials that are looked at. And so, that's why we don't just talk about just shutting it down or getting out of it. We talk about exiting coal, getting the coal generation to stop. So, yeah, we'll see where it takes us.

David Roberts

All right. Well, thank you, everybody. I've seen more utility love in this room than I typically do. So, it's a nice change of pace. Thanks for coming and thanks for all your work.

Lisa Martin

Thanks for having me.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Catching up with enhanced geothermal

In this episode, recorded at a live event in Houston, I catch up with Tim Latimer, the CEO of Fervo Energy. Since the last time I interviewed him, almost two years ago, the company has proven out its technology, reduced its costs, started construction on a large-scale commercial power plant in Utah, and signed contracts for many more. We discuss enhanced geothermalโ€™s benefits, its momentum, and its bipartisan support.

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Text transcript:

David Roberts

Greetings, friends, and neighbors. This is Volts for February 12, 2025, "Catching up with enhanced geothermal." I'm your host, David Roberts. Last month, Canary Media hosted two live events in Texas, one in Houston and one in Austin. At both events, I recorded podcasts for you folks. This is the one from Houston.

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So, back in July 2023, I interviewed Tim Latimer, the CEO of a somewhat obscure startup called Fervo. The company was attempting to transfer the technology advancements made recently in gas fracking over to geothermal energy production. At the time, it had just finished building its first small test plant with funding from Google.

Tim Latimer
Tim Latimer

Not even two years later, a great deal has changed. Fervo built its test plant in short order, brought its drilling costs down by 70%, and started on its first large-scale commercial power plant in Utah.

Far from being obscure, Fervo is now an industry darling on the tip of everyone's tongue.

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The prospect of 24/7, always-on, fully dispatchable, carbon-free power seemed like a dream not long ago, but it is a reality now and it is set to shake up the entire energy world. What a great time to catch back up with Latimer. We talked about the company's recent achievements, the pipeline in front of it, the hyperscalers that are knocking on its door, and geothermal's bright future. In a rather depressing political and social moment, this is the pick-me-up you need.

Hi everybody. So, a few years ago โ€” well, actually even more years ago, I think it was 2019 โ€” I wrote an article about geothermal power at Vox where I worked at the time. Because I had sort of just started kind of hearing it out of the corner of my ear a couple of times and I had sort of been vaguely aware of it and I was just like, "Well, what's going on with that?" And so I went out on what turned into a journey of discovery โ€” turns out lots of stuff going on. And one of the companies I came across was Fervo and the advanced geothermal.

And so, then Tim, when he had done, I think, his first sort of like test, came on the podcast, sort of just basically demonstrated that the technology could work. He came on the pod. That was two years ago and lots has happened even since then. So, I'm here mostly to catch up, but just to set the stage, maybe you could just start for, I mean โ€” I'm assuming most people in this audience know, but maybe just give us like the minute-long "What is the technology in question here?"

Tim Latimer

Well, I have to say, a lot more people know the answer to that question because of your 2019 article. This kind of was maybe an example of how off the radar geothermal is. Sometimes I'm asked now, like, "Oh, why doesn't anybody talk about geothermal?" Or alternatively, I'm asked like, "What's all the hype around geothermal?" And I'm like, "Well, both of those things can't be true." And I always remember the days before you wrote that article in 2019, where I think for the next at least two or three years, everyone had either never heard of Fervo before or they directly cited your one article on the topic.

So, I appreciate you for putting a spotlight on it, and I do think we're part of the conversation now a lot. So, like, everybody should listen to David's podcast and read all the articles he writes because โ€”

David Roberts

And subscribe.

Tim Latimer

you can find out what the trends are six years ahead of schedule. So, it's been a while, but for those who still don't know, one, go read David's article on it. But geothermal is a way to get energy. And that can be heat. That can be heat that we use directly, or it can be heat that we then convert to electricity. And it's an energy resource that's been around for electricity generation for over 100 years. The first geothermal power plant came online in Italy over 100 years ago. By the way, sitting five feet away from me is Ann Robertson-Tait, who's run GeothermEx for a couple of decades.

And so, I'm way more nervous about getting anything wrong about geothermal than I normally am. So, if y'all hear a loud woman proclaiming that I'm wrong about something, you know who it is. Thank you. She said she's going to be tame. But that first plant came online over 100 years ago and, basically, all geothermal power works the same way. There's heat in the ground, and you figure out a way to get that heat moved up in a way where you can spin a turbine. And historically, we've only really had the drilling technology to make that work if you're sitting on top of really special geologic hotspots.

So, Italy was first, but famously, Iceland gets most of its energy from geothermal. Northern California, New Zealand, Kenya, there are countries all over the world that get it. But they all face these characteristics where you can make power from it by producing steam or hot water, spinning a turbine with it to generate electricity. But historically, it's been limited to these specific hotspots. I'm sure you're going to ask us what Fervo does in the future. But generally, the basic concept of what Fervo does is that geothermal has all the things you want in an energy resource.

It's 24/7, it's carbon-free, it's quick to build, it's proven tech. But historically, it has only worked when you're sitting on top of one of these hotspots. And so, there's been R&D initiatives for a long, long, long time to say, what can we do with drilling technology, stimulation technology, fracturing technology, you name it, to try to get geothermal to work in more places. And that's what Fervo does. But that's the basic concept is: The Earth is hot, we can use that heat for something, one of those things we can use it for is to generate electricity.

David Roberts

And just to toot Tim's horn a little more, the big advance here is that Tim has taken fracking technology borrowed from the natural gas industry. And so now, he can go down and create fissures underground, which then he can circulate water through, and it heats up. So, you don't have to find fissures anymore. You can make them, which means you can do it โ€” maybe not anywhere โ€” but a lot more places than you used to be able to do it. So, it's a really cool story, but back when I talked to you, you were just planning on building basically your first actual bona fide power plant for Google.

That was two years ago. You built the plant, you came out with a white paper about the results. It was pretty eye-popping. Why don't you tell us what you guys figured out building your first plant?

Tim Latimer

Yeah, so, even though EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) has been something that had been worked on since the 1970s, it was Los Alamos National Labs and the Department of Energy that first kind of put the research dollars into this and learned a lot of really interesting things. There have been projects in Japan, France, Finland, and all over the world moving forward, but most of them had fallen short of the technical results that you really needed to prove out commercial viability. A lot of that came down to flow rate. It's very expensive to drill.

And if you're going to drill, you need to make sure you're getting a high energy output per well that you drill. So, one of the things we set out is a bunch of different targets in terms of power output per well. And, by the way, for the scope of some of this project, what we did is we found a geothermal power plant in Northern Nevada that had been producing for about 15 years. But they'd oversized the power plant relative to what the actual field could produce, which is a situation you find all the time in geothermal.

Because the scary thing about conventional geothermal development is, you drill a couple of wells and it looks good. You size your power plant, you build it, then you drill a couple more wells, and oh no, you got a dry hole. And so, this plant found its way into that situation where the plant could produce more power than the amount of geothermal steam that was able to flow to the plant. And so, we decided to go out to one of the areas in the southern part of the field where they'd had multiple dry holes using conventional drilling technology. And we did the first kind of Fervo system, which is, as you mentioned, we're borrowing fracking technology from the oil and gas industry.

But that actually wasn't new for geothermal. That had been tried before. But the new twist on it that we had was the integration of horizontal drilling into the process. So, in this project, we drilled about 8,000 ft down, and then through granite, we were able to turn the bit horizontally and drill 3,000 ft plus horizontally. We put two wells next to each other, parallel at that 8,000 ft down, and flowed through the fractures from one well to the other. And the key thing that made our geothermal work was when you turn horizontally, you get access to way more hot rock per well that you drill than a vertical well.

And so, we were able to flow across a much larger system of rock so we could get way higher flow rates. Importantly, they could sustain at the same temperature for a lot longer. So, we flow tested that well. We were able to show that it could flow at over 60 liters per second, which at that power plant, operational efficiency means that our two-well system could produce over three megawatts of electricity. And that was more than double what any other enhanced geothermal system technology had done. And it was also, you know, 10 times higher than what I would say, the average output of prior EGS attempts.

And all because we could get more bang for our buck because of the horizontal drilling. Then we were just talking to you about how excited we were about the well test results. The exciting thing for us was a couple of months later, we were able to build the pipeline, tie that into the power plant, get that system online, actually producing electrons that went to the grid through part of our partnership with Google. The second big de-risking thing that the product was able to do is in October of last year we hit 12 months of production and we're able to maintain the same production temperature from day one all the way through day 365, which is one of the other risks of geothermal is if you don't get a system large enough, it can cool down too quickly.

And so, in one big demonstration project, we showed that we could get enough bang for your buck in terms of power output per well. And that, you know, everyone always says, "Well, what if it fails in 20 years?" And I was like, "Well, in 20 years we'll have de-risked that." But right now, it's just been one year. But one year of completely flat, stellar production and output is a hugely de-risking thing for this tech. So that's what we were able to accomplish there. And we consider it to be the first true breakthrough in commercial viability for enhanced geothermal systems.

David Roberts

And you brought down your drilling costs over the course of that by a lot, by a very large number. 70%. How? Like, you know, to somebody like me, drilling is drilling. Like, how does it get 70% cheaper the second or third time you do it?

Tim Latimer

Yeah, so first and foremost, drilling time is probably the biggest element that goes into the drilling cost. It is incredibly โ€” you know, if you go to visit one of our drilling sites โ€” we have an incredibly sophisticated piece of equipment, a large drilling rig. We have photos of them everywhere. There are dozens of people out there working at any point in time. So, each day you're out there is incredibly expensive, like on the order of $100,000 plus. And then there's a lot of equipment that goes into it as well. And so, when we drilled our well โ€” you know, oil and gas and geothermal drilling is quite a bit different.

Geothermal drilling, we're in higher temperature rock. We're usually targeting granite because that's where it happens to be that most of the high-temperature rock is. We were drilling larger holes and there's 18 other things that make it different from oil and gas drilling. And so, when we first started out, I mentioned this to you earlier, we weren't big enough to get the attention of the oilfield service companies broadly. So, we were just taking off-the-shelf oil and gas drilling tech and trying to shoehorn it into working in this process. And the problem is that you have these amazing innovations that have made drilling in oil and gas really efficient.

Like the one I talk about a lot is the polycrystalline diamond cutter bit. So, like over 100 years ago, Howard Hughes invented the tricone roller bit, and that made him the richest man in the world. And that technology dominated the oil and gas industry for about 100 years. And then, right when I was starting my career a little over a decade ago, you saw the PDC bit leapfrog and become the predominant drilling bit for oil and gas. And that is, rather than rolling bits that crush the rock, you have a fixed cutter bit where the tips of that bit are synthetic diamonds, because diamond is the hardest substance you can get, and that scrapes the rock away.

And so, that actually was one of the huge unlocks that opened up shale oil and gas. But all of those bits had been designed for soft rock, because that's what oil and gas drills through. And we had to adapt it to work for hard rock. So the first time we drilled a horizontal well, it took us 75 days. It took us $13 million to drill that well because it took so long. In the horizontal section, we drilled 3,000 ft, and we broke 13 bits in the span of drilling that 3,000 ft. And a lot of innovation is not sexy.

It's not always that you come up with a whiz-bang. It's not like Doc in Back to the Future where you trip in the bathroom and hit your head on the counter, and the flux capacitor comes to you in a vision. A lot of times, it's just breaking a lot of things. And then running a really rigorous program to figure out, why did it break? How do you make it better for next time, and how do you improve? And so, there wasn't a lot of experience of people using PDC bits in granite before. And this is just one example.

I can tell you, through every component on the drilling rig, where we've improved things. But we started working with the bit suppliers to say, "All right, it broke here this time. Can we add some extra support here? Can we make the blades a little bit longer? Can we change where we put the cutters?" And what we saw is, actually, by the time we were drilling our 10th well, we drilled an entire lateral section through solid granite, 5,000 ft, and we only broke one bit instead of 13. And that meant that we were drilling wells in 17 days instead of 75 days.

And it was just a lot of new improvements from a bunch of different innovations, a lot of which was come up with by our team and it's proprietary for Fervo, a lot of which is a partnership through great suppliers. And a lot of this is, you know, as somebody who used to be a drilling engineer in the oil and gas industry, it's sort of like you do the whole 25 years of the shale revolution. But we got that version of the textbook that the teachers get where there's an answer key in the back. Because there's a bunch of tools that have been developed for oil and gas drilling over the last 25 years, since the first shale well was successful, that weren't developed for the hole sizes and the rock type of geothermal.

And we don't have to go invent those from scratch. We can just go to the service companies and say, "We want one of those, but we want it in this size and work at this temperature." And so, our pace of improvement has been tremendous. And so now, we're drilling wells at under $4 million when we used to drill them at $13 million.

David Roberts

So, you said the thermal level did not drop over the course of a year, which is big. But I think a lot of people, a lot of the questions I get when I talk about geothermal to people who are not familiar with it, is they think, "Do you not sort of suck all the heat out of the ground at some point? Is heat a finite thing that you can deplete or does it regenerate fast enough?" Like, what's the story there? What's the balance there?

Tim Latimer

Yeah, heat does regenerate. If you waited for that heat to regenerate through rock, which rock is not a very good conductor of heat, you would have really, really low output wells. And so, we don't really try to meet steady state in terms of the heat of the rock stays constant over time. Because then, we wouldn't have 3 megawatt wells. Or our most recent well test was 10 megawatt wells. It'd be much, much lower than that. And so, we think about this more in terms of "How do you design a well program where each one of those wells lasts for 30 years or longer?"

And then, what we have is an ability to, as we continue to innovate on the drilling side, we can drill deeper and deeper and deeper into the resource. So, you get to where there's virtually an unlimited supply. And so, the heat does replenish, not at a rate that's fast enough that it would be sort of like your economic optimum to do it. And so, we typically drill these wells and space them out and try to access a body of rock that means that it can produce at the right temperature for about 30 years. And then, the way we think about our long-term asset management is, whenever you get a well that starts to where it's cooled off the rock locally too much, you can decommission it and start producing from other wells that we drill.

And so, the way we kind of think about this is, we like to design our projects so that the wells last for 30 years, but the assets last for centuries. And that's kind of the general idea of how we think about geothermal resource management.

David Roberts

Just out of curiosity, though, and maybe you don't even know this, maybe we should ask a geologist. But like, if you had tapped out the heat to the point that it was no longer economic and you shut the well down and you just waited for the heat to build back up. Is that like 10 years, 100, 200, a 1000?

Tim Latimer

In rock conduction, it's probably โ€” like we got the geologist right here. And the expert geologist says... I called on you, so you get a free pass. Says, you know, so if we run it for 30 years, wait 50-100 years, and the heat will recover. And actually, there's been concepts here where people have actually talked about rotation farming. Like people used to talk about in the โ€”

David Roberts

Are the fields replenishing? The soil is replenishing, kind of similar.

Tim Latimer

Yeah, and by the way, the general crux of this is that there's so much heat in the earth, and that heat is also continually regenerating. The reason geothermal is considered a renewable energy resource is that the heat supply is almost inexhaustible. And I've gotten into debates with people about this in the past where โ€” and there was a good analysis that a geologist did, and they published it in a Wired article a couple of years ago that I always point them to โ€” where I hear people say, "Well, the heat depletes locally, so it's not really renewable." Or, "You know, there's only so much heat in the Earth."

And so, you do the math on it. If you were to take 2024 global human energy consumption and then divide it over the amount of heat in the Earth, what you get is that we only have about 17 billion years' worth of heat in the Earth. And so, my response is, "Okay, fine, it's not renewable. Because in the ultimate heat death of the universe, nothing makes it. But most estimates for the sun are that it'll only last for 5 billion more years. So, you know, we're three times longer than solar energy."

David Roberts

All right, so you built this test plant for Google. I don't even know if we should call it a test plant. Like, it's pretty big. It's not like a little โ€” it's not a pilot.

Tim Latimer

Yeah, it's a real plant.

David Roberts

But now, you are building. No longer... no more demonstration. You're out building a commercial power plant called Cape Station in Utah. So, tell us how big that is and how long is your list of off-takers? How big could you get it before you exhaust your off-takers?

Tim Latimer

So, what we've publicly announced so far through the first two phases is 400 megawatts. And we started drilling this project in 2023. And so, just some scale, right? We're going from 3 megawatts to 400 megawatts in one jump. If y'all are energy entrepreneurs. Almost always, like I'd say, a lot of my board meetings and a lot of people's board meetings are always the question of "How big do you do this time and how big do you go for the next one?" Everybody has really strong rules of thumb about, oh, don't do more than a 10x scale up or something like that.

But I'll tell you, the really nice thing about the scalability of geothermal is, even though our first project was only three megawatts, it was two wells: an injection well and a production well.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's modular, so it's not like you're building a giant well. Yeah, you're just doing well, well, well, well, well.

Tim Latimer

Exactly. And so, that's what gave us conviction that we could go way bigger for project two. Because it's just a repetition. You know, other times when you scale up a plant, you have all sorts of scaling factor issues. Okay, if this is 10 times bigger, are my pressure and volume ratios going to get off? And all sorts of other questions. And with our case, the fact that we're just repeating that base unit of two wells over and over again, you don't have those scale-up issues. We were willing to jump in with both feet and say we're doing a 400 megawatt project.

David Roberts

How many wells is 400 megawatts?

Tim Latimer

It'll be about 80 wells in part because โ€” and we've announced this in our first flow test results that we did at our Utah site โ€” we've actually tripled the power output per well compared to our pilot project because we've gone deeper, hotter, longer laterals. So, our pilot project was at 350 degrees Fahrenheit. We're going to 420 degrees Fahrenheit now. Our pilot project was 3,000-foot laterals. We're doing 5,000-foot laterals now. And there are other changes we made, but we've basically been able to take it to where rather than getting 3 megawatts out of a production well, we get 10 now.

So, the wells are more productive. And so, we're going to do 80 total wells. We've already drilled 20 of them. So, we're well along our way here. We're going to put the first megawatts on the grid in 2026 from this project. 100 megawatts in 2026, 300 megawatts in 2028. We started power plant construction there. In October, the Biden administration announced that we'd gotten our final NEPA federal permitting action to expand the site all the way up to 2 gigawatts. So, I told you earlier, we've only announced 400 megawatts publicly. The 2 gigawatts thing may give you a clue of how we're thinking about expanding that asset.

David Roberts

One other question about the replicability: How many power plants per well, or how many wells per power plant, I guess would be the right way?

Tim Latimer

So, because we're doing directional drilling, we can put a bunch of wells on one pad. And what we found is the most economic way to do this, to actually eliminate pipeline cost and reduce the footprint of the power plant, is to build one power plant per well pad. And so for phase one, we're doing a little bit smaller wells. That's what we're on right now. We have three well pads of eight wells each and three 33 megawatt turbines that sit on each well pad. And we're generating roughly 100 megawatts of power when we commission that plant. We're actually going to even longer laterals and even bigger wells for phase two, and we're going up to 10 wells a pad.

And so, we're going to do 50-megawatt turbines for phase two. And to get back to this point on modularity, I think you did a great podcast a couple of years ago about learning curves, which I think is the most important possible concept in technology innovation โ€” I don't mean technology innovation like what software people do, I mean technology innovation like what we do โ€” is learning curves, which you can get a learning curve if you can drive standardization and modularity from unit to unit. Our team did a huge amount of analysis, and we now call these geo blocks because we've worked with our turbine suppliers to give us a standard 50-megawatt turbine generator combo that matches exactly with our one well pad output.

And we put one per well pad. And the idea is that rather than try to get infinite economies of scale by making the turbines bigger forever, we actually get the right balance between shorter iteration cycles for improvement, while not sacrificing too much on economies of scale by specifically choosing to do a 50-megawatt power unit. So, when we do phase two of this 300 megawatts, we're going to do six power blocks over and over again and turn it into something that's a lot more of a mass manufacturing type approach that allows you to unlock these learning curves that rely on standardization and short cycle times.

David Roberts

Right, right. And, is there, in terms of depth that you can get to with your current technology and in terms of lateral feet, some limit? Like, you've pushed it out a ways now. Can you push it out further and further? Like, how far lateral can you go before you get lost out there?

Tim Latimer

A lot farther. We'll find out. We've gone from 3,000 to 5,000 just in the span of the last two years. We're going to do 7,500 later this year. To give you some context, the horizontal wells that the oil and gas industry is drilling now, you know, back when I left the oil and gas industry in 2015, we thought it was like the coolest thing that we could do, a 5,000-foot lateral. And you talk to people now and the records are 20,000 ft, 25,000 ft, 30,000-foot lateral. And here's a crazy thing for you, if you haven't followed the technology space. Where the oil and gas industry's found the limit isn't from a technical limit, but it's because landowners typically don't own land that extends six miles across.

And so, you get so much efficiency from having a longer lateral. No joke. What a lot of the oil and gas industry drillers are pioneering right now is what they call horseshoe wells, where they literally drilled down 5,000 ft in one direction, do a U-turn, and come back 5,000 ft in the other direction. And that's because sometimes you can't put enough landowners together to drill longer. So the technical limits aren't there. For us, we're having to go through this iteration cycle of learning how to drill in granite and learning how to drill at 450 degrees Fahrenheit, which is a different beast from what the oil and gas industry does.

But we think we've developed the right technology tools to go to 7,500 ft now. And we're planning on expanding that to 10,000 ft to 15,000 ft in the next two to three years.

David Roberts

Could you horseshoe? Because I remember when I was looking at the geothermal company Eavor, which is doing a closed-loop thing, their water circulates just through pipes rather than loose underground. But they were, you know, they were talking about drilling the pipe down and then having laterals kind of going off like a tree kind of thing. Like, is there any reason you couldn't do a lateral out and horseshoe back and another lateral? I mean, is there a limit to the number of laterals?

Tim Latimer

No, I'd say what we're doing now is because it's economic and it works. And so, no need to kind of push the technical boundaries when we already have something. I'm also a big believer in โ€” people call the concept "deployment led innovation" or "learning by doing". When you look at the hard tech companies that have really done transformational things over the span of a couple of decades, you never, ever, ever find a company that said, "We're going to work on a 20 or 30-year moonshot and it's going to be all science and R&D for 20 and 30 years. Then we're going to flip a switch and it works.

What you find is a company that figures out how to improve and make money every step of the process. Because you gotta have some flywheel to fund the process. So, like, you know, SpaceX didn't start out with Starlink and they didn't start out with the gigantic, you know, Starship rocket they're doing now. They figured out how to make smaller ones and start with more traditional commercial satellites and then how do you scale up to make larger rockets there? And so, the answer to your question is, we're looking at all of those things and no telling what 10 or 20 years of dedicated geothermal drilling innovation will do to these.

But we have a system that works right now, and we're stepping our way into that. And I'll tell you one other big difference from oil and gas to geothermal that actually opens up a whole new wave of innovation possibilities. Oil and gas is always limited in the fact that they have to find hydrocarbon-bearing zones to develop their projects, and so like you wouldn't do crazy well geometries. Or sometimes people say, "Well, if you could drill that deep, wouldn't the oil and gas industry have done it by now?" Well, if there's not oil deeper, you don't have an economic incentive to do it.

And the oil and gas industry is not in the industry to do strange, sciencey things. Geothermal is far different. So, like when I joined in South Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale, a lot of times you only have a pay package there that's like 300 ft thick. So, nobody's asking the question, "How do you go to 15,000 ft or 20,000 ft?" or something like that. But geothermal is quite a bit different because generally the deeper you go, the hotter it gets. And so, when we think about what does the industry look like 10 years from now or 20 years from now, we want to drill โ€” yesterday's wells are at 350 degrees Fahrenheit and 8,000 ft, today's wells are at 400 degrees and 9,000 ft, the wells we're drilling next year are 450 degrees and 11,000 ft.

And the fascinating thing is, because we're not chasing a hydrocarbon package, the fact that we're just chasing heat means that if we improve the technology so we can drill hotter and deeper, it improves our economics. So, like, it's an industry that has a totally different technology curve than oil and gas because there's actually a technology and financial incentive to figure out how to go deeper. And that's not something that generally the oil and gas industry has had. So, I think when you think about what our industry will look like over a 20 or 30-year period, everything you just said about multiple multilaterals or crazy loops or wild designs is in the cards because it actually doesn't follow the same constraints as oil and gas drilling.

David Roberts

So if you're going to identify, say, the three big trends that are going to bring costs down for Fervo going forward, deeper, farther lateral, are those the main things?

Tim Latimer

"Deeper" matters a lot. Because if you can go from 400 degrees Fahrenheit to 450 degrees Fahrenheit, you can actually improve your power output by 30%.

David Roberts

Yes, you can flow exponentially.

Tim Latimer

It gets exponentially better. So, that'll be a huge thing. We're going to continue to drive drilling costs down. What's fascinating, if you were to take like the NREL CapEx stack for an enhanced geothermal system project from two or three years ago, before Fervo published our results, what they would have told you is the power plant would have cost you like $3,000 a kilowatt, and the drilling would have cost you like $30,000 a kilowatt. And so, all of the R&D focus was on driving down the drilling costs. And $3,000 a kilowatt is pretty expensive for a power plant.

But when it's just like the tail wagging the dog, there wasn't a lot of R&D focus on it. What we've done now from Fervo's standpoint on drilling innovation โ€” keep in mind, just in the last two years, I told you we've tripled the productivity of our wells by dropping the cost by 70% โ€” we've dropped our subsurface costs by an order of magnitude. And so now we're talking about sub $3,000 a kilowatt subsurface costs, actually getting close to sub $2,000 kilowatt subsurface costs. And so all of a sudden there's been decades of focus on the drilling side of this equation.

And in the span of about two years, we've taken the drilling part of the equation from being the prohibitively expensive part to the cheaper part of the operation. So, you look at our engineering team, you can tell what we were focused on, because three years ago, I think Quinn is here somewhere. Is Quinn here from our team? He may have stepped out, but Quinn was the entirety of our power plant engineering team, a team of one, because it just wasn't a primary focus of ours. And we probably had 20 times as many people on subsurface technical challenges.

We now have more engineers on the power plant side focusing on cost-saving opportunities than we do on the subsurface side, because all of a sudden it's the bigger part of the CapEx.

David Roberts

Let me ask about that, because if there's one thing that seems like it's been standardized over time, it's a steam turbine. Is there something unique about these steam turbines that is bespoke to geothermal?

Tim Latimer

So, there's some geothermal that uses steam turbines, particularly the really high-temperature resources if you're in one of the conventional New Zealand or Northern California plays. But almost all of the growth in the US geothermal market over the last 10 or 20 years has been in organic Rankine cycle turbines, which isn't a new tech. Rankine was in the 1800s, I think. So, it's not like it's new, but it's only just now finding like mass market adoption. And the key is, you can get higher efficiencies at lower temperature. And so, until ORC units got rolled out, the cutoff for your minimum viable temperature for geothermal might have been 500F or 550F or something like that, because it just wasn't efficient enough to run a steam turbine there.

So, we do organic Rankine cycle systems. And even though there's been hundreds of gigawatts or thousands of gigawatts of steam turbines built over the years, collectively there's only been 4,000 megawatts total of organic Rankine cycle turbines. So, it's still a technology that's not that far down its learning curve. And so, you think about the one project we're doing in Utah right now is going to be 10% of the global market for ORCs just in one project. And if you look at Fervo's growth targets, we're going to get there very, very quickly. And so, there's different technology innovation tools.

We're pretty wedded to using organic Rankine cycle turbines. I'll tell you one of the keys for this.

David Roberts

Even if you're deeper and getting hotter?

Tim Latimer

Yes, and I can tell you the reason. There are two reasons for it. One is financial. Geothermal brine can have different things in it, and exposing your steam turbine and all of your equipment at the surface to that geothermal brine can lead to crazy corrosion and scale issues. I'd say the second thing is, it is important to Fervo as a company, and I think the geothermal industry, to be zero emission. A steam turbine is not necessarily zero emission because if there's CO2 or other things in the geothermal brine, it can actually lead to emissions. I'm a little tired of the industry having to explain โ€” like we're a tiny enough industry as it is and having to explain different stories.

It's probably confusing whenever you start talking about it because is it low emission or no emission? Do we use some water or no water? There are just all these questions. If you use an air-cooled system that is an organic Rankine cycle, because all we do with the geothermal brine is bring it up, run it through a heat exchanger, and pump it back down, it's a no-emission technology. And I think as we scale, it's going to be more and more important over time to be no emission, not just low emission. Standardizing and driving innovation on a closed-loop organic Rankine cycle system with air cooling is a way where you can go and put those power plants anywhere in the world, not worry about the emissions, not worry about the water, and just go.

And so, we think it's a superior technology. And Fervo is all in on that. Because I think the standardization benefits and the environmental benefits of this type of power generation outweigh any potential upsides from using different technology.

David Roberts

And there's lots of innovation headroom.

Tim Latimer

There's a lot of innovation headroom.

David Roberts

So, before we get beyond the technical stuff, let's talk about drilling deeply. We just visited โ€” some Canary folks and I earlier today โ€” Quaise, the company Quaise, which is trying to go deep by using millimeter waves โ€” I always want to say lasers, I wish it were lasers โ€” millimeter waves to literally melt rock. We watched them melt rock in front of us. It's quite mind-blowing. So, that's one area of innovation for getting deeper. How are you going to get deeper and deeper?

Tim Latimer

Yeah, it's a good question. We're excited to follow Quaise's journey. I should say we, at the end of the day, are a developer that uses technology to further our progress. And so, nothing would thrill me more than to see Quaise have a breakthrough in technology. We would immediately be a huge customer of theirs. We think for the next five to 10 years, while there are other alternative technologies that are trying to kind of scale up to get to higher levels on the technology readiness level. You talk about innovation headroom: I think there's been so little drilling with modern rigs and automation with PDC bits in a granite environment that what we've done by cutting our drilling times by 70% in the last 18 months is not close to scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

And what we've done now is we consistently are drilling faster than 100 ft per hour. We consistently are having bit lives where we can drill for 2,000 ft, 3,000 ft or longer. And I think we're going to get to a point relatively soon here where we're at 200 ft per hour, 10,000 foot bit life. And when you start hitting those kinds of numbers, going to 15,000 ft or 20,000 ft, which is kind of in our medium-term plan, is imminently doable. And by the way, if you can get down to 20,000 ft, there's enough geothermal resource to power the United States many, many times over.

And so, we're already in an area where the innovations we've gone through have allowed us to increase the depths of our wells by a few thousand feet just in the span of the three years we've been drilling. They aren't slowing down anytime soon. And we think we're going to be unlocking a market that is ubiquitous in terms of geothermal power generation relatively soon, just on the trajectory we're on right now.

David Roberts

Okay, so let's talk about applications. Although, I guess in our current context, power demand is so crazy and rising so fast, what to do with your energy is probably not high on your list of worries. But, it seems like data centers are everywhere. Data centers are on everyone's mind. You know, this is a vexing thing for the clean energy folks. These data centers need enormous amounts of always-on, steady power. Which is very challenging with existing zero carbon technologies. Although, you know, there's white papers out there on how to do this with solar and storage mini-grids.

But it's a vexing problem, and this seems to fit hand in glove with those needs. So, do you have data centers knocking down your door already? Are they on their way to Utah to build next to you? What's your relationship right now with data centers?

Tim Latimer

Yes, well, data centers and the leadership in the tech industry are one of the key things that got Fervo started. We already mentioned the partner for us on that very first project we did was Google. It was because Google, even going back into 2018, launched this 24/7 carbon-free energy initiative, which was focused on total decarbonization of their electricity supply and recognition that even though they're one of the largest buyers of wind and solar in the world, they needed to complement that with emerging technologies to get all the way to 24/7.

And we've been excited to expand that partnership. In the summer of 2024, we announced what we call the Clean Transition Tariff, which is a multi-party agreement between Fervo, Google, and NV Energy so that we can develop and sell Google 115 megawatts of power through a new project that we're going to be developing in Nevada as part of that continued partnership. So, it's definitely happening. The renaissance โ€” it's cool to be in power again, that's the thing. And when we started this company, actually, the number one reason VCs passed on Fervo back in the early days was they just didn't think anybody would want the power.

Which is quaint to think about today, but the idea is that you think about 2020, there had basically been flat power demand growth in the United States for two decades.

David Roberts

Which means, you add something, you take something else off, which is a fundamentally different situation than we're in.

Tim Latimer

It was a zero-sum game. We were also looking at a situation where solar had gotten really cheap. And I think people were just basking in the glow of the success that solar was cheap and natural gas had gotten really cheap. And I think people were basking in the glow of the success that natural gas had gotten really cheap. And you weren't seeing these ambitious 100% renewable energy targets or 24/7 carbon-free energy targets. So it's kind of like, "Ah, nobody's going to want the power." You fast forward to today, it could not be a different market in the power world.

You have many jurisdictions and many companies that have actually committed not to a 10% or a 20% renewable portfolio standard, but 100%. You have things like, you know, we're here in Texas obviously. Like I think, like most of y'all, I lost power for a week during Winter Storm Yuri. And that was not fun. One of the big things for our business is, in August of 2020, the state of California had its first rolling blackouts since the energy, since the old Enron energy crisis two decades before. And that spurred the California Public Utility Commission into action to think about "How do we round out capacity for reliability?"

And they did a procurement mandate that included geothermal. And so, you were already seeing new demand signals. And then, late in 2023, ChatGPT goes viral and everything about the world got turned upside down. And now, all of a sudden, you know, there's sort of now three phases in the American electricity grid. The 100 years where it was growing exponentially, the 20 years where it was completely flat. And now we're back on the exponential curve again. And the relationship โ€” we think a lot of our business is going to be driven in the near term by this data center demand.

And I can tell you, the way these conversations have gone is, five years ago, we talked to somebody and they wanted 20 megawatts of power somewhere and they didn't really care what it was. And you talked to them about siting and they were like, "Well, we need to go where the fiber is good. We need to go where there's a workforce. We need to go where you have access to water for cooling. You know, Utah doesn't check the box." So like, "Have a nice life." And that was the answer we got because energy access was probably one of 15 different criteria for siting a data center.

And now, all of those customers are coming back and saying, "Hey, we'll come to you. Can you do a gigawatt for us now, not just 20 megawatts?" And what you've seen is the market has shifted enough. Energy access, I think, went from being, you know, middle of a list of 15 priorities for data center siting to probably number one. And I've asked some of our folks like, "Well, you told us it was a non-starter two years ago and here we are," and it's like, okay, it turns out all the other problems are solvable and energy access to new energy, reliable energy is sort of the gating factor there.

And so, if you ask 10 people, you'll get 11 different opinions on how much power demand AI is going to drive over the next five to 10 years. The answer is, it's positive, it's large, it's huge, and it's a totally different set of customers and strain on the growth of the US electric grid than anything we've ever experienced before.

David Roberts

Yeah, and I'll just throw in here, within 10 years, we're going to be well into electrifying transportation world over, electrifying buildings, heating and cooling world over, electrifying industry world over. So, the rise in energy and electricity demand, there's no danger of being any kind of blip or short-term fad. That's the rest of our lives.

Tim Latimer

And I will say, I'm glad you pointed that out because I do think AI is the shiny object. So that's what gets all the attention. But let's not forget, even before the ChatGPT moment, demand forecasts were rising again because we're onshoring manufacturing, we're electrifying buildings, EVs are coming onto the grid, there's new economic development. And really, what you had is a system that was used to growing like this, where like you said, one in, one out, that's it. You know, it's not the employees, the supply chains. Nobody was set up to bend like this. We were already bending like this.

And then, we had a new form from those things: industrialization, clean energy, onshoring, manufacturing, electric vehicles. And then you add one more thing to it, and that was the thing that really got people to realize it's a totally different era.

David Roberts

So, before I leave the data center thing, they want a gigawatt from you. So, you've got this eight-well pad that is producing how much? You said 50?

Tim Latimer

That's 30 megawatts now, working on a 10 well pad.

David Roberts

So, I'm trying to help us envision what a gigawatt of your geothermal looks like. That's a big chunk of Utah desert, is it not?

Tim Latimer

So, yes and no. Is it a sizable industrial complex? Yes. Is it a smaller footprint than any other way you're going to get that level of energy from a surface disturbance standpoint? Yes. And so, if you come out to our site โ€” and by the way, happy to take you out to our site anytime, it's a fun thing โ€” what we have is these eight well pads that we stack up one and then we put another one a little bit to the north and another one a little bit to the north, and we build the turbine generators right off the pads.

And so, we basically just have a line of pads that you can stand and look at and, collectively, just to give you some sense of scale, that 400 megawatts when we bring it online and when we bring in the last phase online in 2028, will be over 10% of Utah's power generation. And we're going to be able to do that within a few square mile area at one spot in the center of the state. So, is it big? Yes. Is it big relative to the power output and economic value that it brings to the grid? No. And I think that's one of the other features that's very powerful about geothermal is, it's compact from a land use standpoint.

David Roberts

Certainly more so than solar, but not as much as nuclear, right? I mean, nuclear has a problem of being mostly imaginary, but if it were real, it would be smaller, right?

Tim Latimer

It is difficult to compare our actual project results to imaginary project results. But to be a little less flippant about it, nuclear is also a very energy-dense area. I think there's a renaissance going on in nuclear right now, which I think is very encouraging for the country too. I think when you look at things like the security and standoff requirements of nuclear plants and counterattack and the footprint of mining that goes into it and other factors, it's not too dissimilar. I'm sure that an endless number of academics have published endless numbers of papers on these that show directionally, I'd say they're in the same ballpark, they're better than a lot of other energy resources.

If somebody wants to really duke it out with me and fight that nuclear is slightly more land compact, I'll concede. But we both have attributes that are very attractive from an environmental impact standpoint.

David Roberts

Right. So, practically speaking, in the short term, the competition to power data centers, your competitor is natural gas. Like, if you were a cynic, right? You're watching a lot of big companies with a lot of very lofty clean energy goals run up against the limits and you wonder, well, which is going to give: the hunger for more data centers or the clean energy target? And you know, I'm guessing the clean energy target. And gas is cheap. It's right there, it's right at hand, it's easy to build, utilities know it, lawmakers love it, et cetera, et cetera.

So just maybe just like flatly, like, how do your current costs of your current Utah plant compare to natural gas?

Tim Latimer

It's difficult to compare directly to natural gas for a couple of reasons. One is we don't have fuel cost, so you have to take a view on what the long-term prices of natural gas are. And you also have different regulatory risks and exposures and things like that. I can tell you right now we are generally at a point โ€” and I'm happy to discuss the specific CapEx numbers because we actually published this in our Technology Day that we hosted here in Houston in September โ€” we are building these projects at around $6,000 a kilowatt right now, which on a CapEx basis is significantly more expensive than what you get from a new combined cycle gas plant.

Although, I'll say our costs are going in different directions because we're dropping our costs down pretty dramatically. What you're seeing is the supply chain for natural gas power generation isn't used to a huge call on demand like this as well. And so, you're actually seeing costs go in the opposite direction for there. So, the gap is just closing naturally. But we also, on that tech day, published where we think our costs are going, which is at the span of two or three projects. We think we can drop costs below $3,000 a kilowatt. And I think we're going to do that for the reasons I talked about.

Standardize the power plant, move into a mass manufacturing mentality, dropping drilling costs and drilling hotter wells. At $3,000 a kilowatt, you can remove all the subsidies. You could remove all the other things that tip the different scales and just on a CapEx basis, and you take the fact that geothermal doesn't have fuel cost, and I think we have got a better cost than natural gas. And that's even absent any environmental attributes or any REC factors. We're not there today. What we do is we offer a valuable enough product that our offtake prices we still make an attractive financial return, which is why we've been able to raise capital and we can find customers who want this.

But our vision for geothermal is, by 2030, to drop that cost to some $3,000 a kilowatt. The thing that we think about the energy transition and driving sustainability is, you have to offer an end product that is irresistible to your buyer, regardless of the whims of their climate commitments that they may or may not be sticking to. And I think we're on a path to be there in geothermal within the next five years.

David Roberts

So, I'll just repeat that to put a fine point on it. You think you have a line of sight to being cost-competitive with natural gas, absent subsidies, absent carbon prices, absent anything else. Pretty cool. So, a lot of people don't know this, but there was a national election recently and things changed a bit.

Tim Latimer

I need to get my beer for this.

David Roberts

I think for wind and solar, you know, for dim colored energy, this is obviously dire. No one knows how dire or exactly what kind of dire. No one knows anything yet. But as I was thinking about this, like you seem like, you know, maybe alone among all of Americans, you seem like you're really well positioned, like this could actually be quite good for you. Because I think there's still going to be some impetus for decarbonization. There's still going to be some โ€” and I don't think administrations or state governments are going to want to look like they're just shutting the whole thing down, right?

So, they're going to favor the non-renewable clean things, you know, which involves a lot of nonsense, a lot of CCS, a lot of hydrogen, but it also involves geothermal. So, I would just wonder like, you know, the first time I talked to you, I remember years ago you were like, "Our problem is not that anyone hates us, it's that no one knows we exist. Right. It's that no one knows about us." Now, people know about you as far as I can tell. Still, no one hates you. Do you feel like the new political landscape is advantageous to you?

Tim Latimer

Yeah. In fact, when I told you that years ago, I probably used the same joke that I now use every time I talk. So, I apologize to anybody in the room who's ever heard me talk before. But the thing we find with geothermal is, it used to be bipartisan in D.C. in the sense that neither party knew what it was. And we have, I think, fairly deftly navigated through multiple different administrations, through a huge shift in energy policy priorities, becoming both known and bipartisan. And there are concrete examples of that. You know, one of my favorites, if you look at the new Senate, the chair of the Senate.

David Roberts

Do I have to?

Tim Latimer

Yes, you have to. The chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is Senator Mike Lee from Utah, a very proud and principled conservative. He will tell you that he is probably one of the most outspoken people in the Senate in terms of his diehard conservative principles. The ranking member is Senator Martin Heinrich from New Mexico, who is very proud of his progressive bona fides and proud to tell everybody that. You look at where there is common ground for those two people to overlap between the ranking member and the chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

I can tell you where it is. Sponsorship of the GEO Act that they both co-sponsored in 2024 to drive more incentives and streamlined permitting for geothermal. And so, what we find is that there's a lot to like on both sides of the aisle for what geothermal can provide. It's carbon-free energy that employs people from the oil and gas workforce. So, it's a just transition workforce story, which is fantastic. It's a climate change story, which is fantastic. You know what else it is? It uses uniquely American innovation, domestic, the drilling sector, which is really exciting.

Exciting. And it's baseload, you know, which is the thing that has become โ€” I think somebody did a quote looking at Secretary Burgum's confirmation hearing and I think there were like 100 mentions of the word "baseload" because that's what people are thinking about right now. How do you get that reliability? So, we find that bipartisan line and we think it's an area that we will make significant progress in energy access and climate over the next four years. And where there may not be that many other opportunities for compromise between the Democratic leaders and the Trump administration.

And to kind of drive this point home on a little bit more of a personal level, soon-to-be Secretary Chris Wright โ€” who just got voted out of the Senate ENR Committee 15 to 5, several Democrat votes, so he has bipartisan support โ€” invested in Fervo through his company Liberty Energy in 2022 and has been a board observer of ours. And so, I know a lot of folks on the Democrat side are very inconsistent, antsy about him because he's outspoken on his views on climate. But in his whole hearing, he was unabashed that he's very excited about geothermal and moving forward.

So, I certainly see this is going to be one of those areas where we're going to have bipartisan support through the next four years to make significant progress on climate and energy access. And yeah, I hope to keep it that way.

David Roberts

What happened to the GEO Act? What's the status?

Tim Latimer

The GEO Act got taken wholesale into EPRA. So, that was exciting. It got very close to passing and then, when EPRA fell apart at the end of the last Congress, we went back to the drawing board. But there are many provisions in there that fix some long-standing redundancies of geothermal permitting that would really accelerate project development. And we, you know, if there is an opening for a bipartisan compromise on permit reform in 2025, I think geothermal will be included in it. We were a little sad to see that the big compromise bill fell apart right at the end of the last Congress because I actually don't know if we're going to get a window for a bipartisan compromise on permitting ever again.

So, we'll see what happens.

David Roberts

But that's not a must-have for you?

Tim Latimer

We have certainly managed to get projects through the federal permitting process already. I mentioned earlier, our project in Utah is already permitted to expand up to 2 gigawatts. It took us about three years to go through the federal permitting process on that. So, not as fast as it could be, but not something that is an absolute project killer. The other thing where I think there's alignment both on the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration is there's a lot of things that can be done administratively to streamline permitting. And one of the final actions of the outgoing Biden administration was actually pushing through administrative categorical exclusions for geothermal permitting that don't require new laws to be passed because that was a priority, you know, developing clean American energy on federal lands was a priority of the Biden administration.

And so, that was one of the final acts. It's actually already made a huge difference in our business. And, we do not expect the Trump administration to be bashful on trying to push further permit reforms. So, I don't think that progress is going to be walked back.

David Roberts

Got it. If you think about your experience, like you, you came out of the oil and gas industry and started this thing. So, you have been a dude with a pitch deck and a gleam in his eye.

Tim Latimer

That's all it was in the beginning.

David Roberts

You've been a technology developer, innovator. You've been a first of a kind. Now you've been a pilot plant. Now you're moving into a commercial enterprise. Just like, how is your head still on straight? Like, this is like, it's wild how rapidly you've accelerated through all these phases. And it seems to be like the plane seems to be holding together. And you seem to have your Zen about you. Like, what's your secret, Tim? How do you...?

Tim Latimer

Thank you. Every day isn't that zen, but we make it through. It is fascinating. I'll tell you a couple of things that I'm proud of in terms of the culture that's been created at Fervo. One thing we repeat all the time that I think is an important thing to think about from a personal growth standpoint and a company growth standpoint is, I'll say this phrase a lot. And it's caught hold in our company that our goals are so ambitious and we're growing so fast that we have to be willing to totally reinvent ourselves on a quarterly basis if we want to succeed.

Because it is true, the things that it takes to go from pitch deck to pilot are different skills than going from pilot to developer. And I can be concrete about this. When you fund a really early stage, like a pre-seed company, what you're looking for is a market size so massive and a technology leap so huge that the entrepreneurs, the naive entrepreneurs sending you the pitch deck, can be wrong about nine out of the 10 things that they tell you. But as long as they're right about one thing, you still have a business. And that's kind of the idea that "move fast and break things" and try stuff is to shoot for something so big when you're early stage. You know, celebrate failure, move forward with that, and you have to embrace that in your DNA as an early company.

I see some of my friends in the room who are project developers here. Project development โ€” you cannot imagine a more polar opposite.

David Roberts

You do not want to break things in project development.

Tim Latimer

And I'll also tell you, it's totally inverse. You know, if you're wrong about nine out of 10 things in a startup, you're really right about that one thing. You've got a business if you're right about nine out of 10 things as a developer, but you forgot a permit or you didn't have the right contract provisions in your insurance agreement, or you didn't get your interconnection in queue in time, or like, oops, transformers take five years to come around, or you didn't get the right labor agreement put in place, guess what? You don't get an A for getting nine out of ten things right.

That's a zero. And product development is completely unforgiving. I think what we have at Fervo, I'm really proud. Some of my colleagues are here in the room and it's just the team that I think has really taken that mentality of personal growth and continuous growth to heart. It's a lot of the same people who had that wild-eyed "let's move fast and break things and let's shoot for the moon" mentality. As we've learned, we've been slowly beaten into being developers where we don't want to make any mistakes. But if you want to be successful in scaling a company, you've got to be willing to go on that journey.

And everything's about the people, right? And what we've done is we've been incredibly lucky that every step of the way in Fervo's journey, we've been able to get kind of the best of the best talent to join. I don't know, I feel shameless doing a plug, but we have 20 open positions on the fervoenergy.com careers page right now. So if you want to, if you think you're the best and the best and you want to join, please think about joining our team. But, yeah, the reason I stay sane is because we've got a team that has taken the challenge of growing themselves with the company seriously.

David Roberts

Excellent. Well, we have time for a few questions, and I bet people have them over there.

First Audience Question

Well, thanks to both of you for a great discussion and hearing some things we, in following this area, haven't heard before. I talked to a couple of your colleagues at the break and I didn't swab them too hard, but I'll swab you. You talked about scalability in your blue sky view to the degree that you're comfortable talking about it, Tim, how do we downscale? Because people are talking about small nuclear reactors that, if everything goes right, are going to take 10 years between permitting execution. You can fill a pad and drill it out in a year or two.

Both direct use and smaller-scale electric generation. Again, to the degree you're comfortable talking about it, where do you see the future for that? Both in North America and elsewhere? Because we know where the Great Basin is in East Africa, Iceland, and Java, Sumatra, and that's going to limit us. But there's a big world out there where heat is going from the mantle to the surface and we can capture that. Thank you.

Tim Latimer

Yes, I think I heard โ€” you know, how do we scale beyond these hotspots and also how do we maybe do smaller projects to tackle this market?

David Roberts

Smallest viable. Like, is it distributed at all? What's the smallest viable project size?

Tim Latimer

Five or 10 megawatts is probably as small as we'd go. I could say what we've learned through doing these projects is our products do benefit from economies of scale. There's a reason why we're pushing for multi-hundred megawatt projects. And so, that's what we're pushing on right now. I can tell you that we are looking to go smaller. And to go smaller, you have to get more value for it, right? Because no one wants to pay more for electricity unless you're getting something there. So, when we look to go smaller, that is because we are looking for a direct heat business that may have a different load and clean heat is incredibly valuable.

And as proud as we are about the conversion efficiencies going from heat to power that we have on our sites, you're still talking about low-grade heat that only has somewhere between a 15 to 20% conversion efficiency. So, if you can just keep a direct heat, there's a lot more you can do there. So, we definitely see that going forward. Fervo is certainly not the only company in the space too. I mean, I think I've been really excited to see the ecosystem around geothermal grow up. I think Bedrock is a company that just announced a $12 million Series A just last week, and they're going after more building heating and cooling things.

So, I think there are things you can do to go smaller. It may not be what Fervo does right away, but there are other companies out there and it's a big market. Moving beyond the basin and range and the East African Rift and things, it's just a function of drilling costs. If you can drill a 20,000-foot deep well tomorrow for the cost of a 10,000-foot deep well today, you can make that project in the money. And so, that's why we're so relentlessly focused on dropping drilling costs, because ultimately we don't see any geology as being a place that's not developable.

It's just how ambitious can we get on driving drilling costs down?

Second Audience Question

So, my question is: The comparison was made between geothermal, nuclear, and natural gas, and it always is. But my question is a comparison question as well between Fervo geothermal and traditional geothermal. If on your eight-well pad, where you're generating 30 megawatts of power, if Joe Geothermal, the traditional geothermal guy, rocked up and drilled those, their typical eight wells on that same location, what do you think they would have produced or what would it have cost or what? You know, pick your metric. I'm just trying to draw an apples-to-apples comparison.

Tim Latimer

Yeah, I think that if you look at the well test results, well number one, conventional geothermal technology probably wouldn't have gotten much of anything because it's so reliant on natural permeability. But if there were to be, like I mentioned this before between Los Alamos and really when Fervo started, there's been about 50 different EGS attempts and the vast majority of them got 5 liters per second to 10 liters per second if they were successful. And many of the projects didn't even get to a flow test. And you compare that to 60 liters per second on our pilot project, and we got to 120 liters per second on our flow test there.

So, we're at least one order of magnitude more productive than what any prior enhanced geothermal systems attempt had been. And that's why in 2025, we're talking about EGS and it's not on the fringes anymore.

Third Audience Question

Oh, sorry, man. I have a technical question for you. So, I know geothermal is lumped into baseload, which is so hot right now, but was not so hot just a year or two ago when solar was ascendant and we wanted everything to be very flexible, right? And still, in some places, I expect flexibility will be the premium thing and not the baseload. So, can you tell us, can you be flexible and how much with geothermal? Is there a problem with depleting the well or having it, you know, lose?

David Roberts

Oh, I love this question and I love the answer.

Tim Latimer

"Yes" is the answer. So, we actually have a technology that we've developed. And actually, you know, I haven't mentioned it a lot, but we've gotten a wonderful partnership with the Department of Energy for the last eight years since we started Fervo. We expect it to continue under the new administration as well. And one of the things we got was an RPE grant just to test the technology we call Fervo Flex. And actually, at that pilot in Northern Nevada, I can tell you the last year of production, we just brought it on as baseload. Because as you can imagine, in an offtake agreement that's megawatt-hour based, that's your incentive as a developer.

But we know where the market's going and we know baseload went from being the thing to being dead to now the phoenix rising from the ashes. But clearly, the electric grid of the future is going to be one that's driven by ever-increasing levels of variability. So we do think that dispatchability attribute is going to continue to be important. And so, what was interesting about Fervo Flex is we, basically through this ARPA-E grant, were able to test our well system in Nevada to operate in a storage and dispatchability mode. And I think one of the things that's interesting about the way we develop our systems is the fact that there's no permeability for the last hundred years has meant that you can't develop geothermal there.

But because it's impermeable, it actually gives us an interesting way to do energy storage. Because the only permeability that ends up in the geothermal reservoir is the fractures that we create, and the surrounding area is actually impermeable. And so, what that means is that we operated the mode in a flexible cycle where we shut in our production well and kept pumping down our injection well. We mimicked specifically sort of 12-hour diurnal cycles of no production, flush production, no production, to sort of simulate a solar heavy grid of the future. And found that we got really great numbers on round trip efficiency.

You know, we were able to actually get much higher max peak output than our steady state operations through that energy storage.

David Roberts

Just to be clear, you're capping the output and you're still pumping water down. So, just pressure? Yes, it's the energy being stored as pressure.

Tim Latimer

That's right. And so, you know, I told you it's roughly a 3-megawatt project. Right. And what you find is that the pumping of that can take up 500 kilowatts or 700 kilowatts. And so that sort of eats into your output in a normal time. But if you actually can run the system in a mode where you only pump, let's say for example, during the daytime when there's a lot of solar, you take all of your parasitic load and you become a net energy consumer during the day. And you actually build up so much storage in the reservoir that it will self-flow even without any injection pumping during the evening.

And so, we sort of simulated that and showed that we could get really strong round-trip efficiencies day to night. Because baseload is so hot right now, all of our current agreements, like people, just want that power around the clock and that's what's driving things. But when we start talking to our customers about 2030's project delivery, building these inherent energy storage capabilities into the geothermal reservoir is something that's driving increasing interest.

David Roberts

Is this something that's far enough along that you have any sense of your duration, just how far out you can push your duration?

Tim Latimer

Yes, and anybody who wants to read more about this, you can look it up. We co-authored a bunch of different papers with Jesse Jenkins and Wilson Ricks from Princeton's Zero Lab.

David Roberts

I did a pod with Wilson Ricks on this very question.

Tim Latimer

You can listen to the pod, which I think is, in true Volts fashion, an hour plus long deep dive. You can also read the papers, which I think there's 200 plus pages of how this works. It was a great thing because we looked at reservoir simulation results and we asked the question of for grids at different levels of solar penetration, to simulate today's grid, or a grid five years from now, or 10 years from now, or California versus the national grid, what was the optimum cycle time? We usually found a diurnal cycle time was best. And with the data field data we've collected, for sure, we can hit an 8 or 12-hour storage time.

We have not yet kind of pushed the limits on can you do multi hundred hour energy storage?

David Roberts

What would happen if you just capped it and kept pumping and pumping and pumping them? Is something going to blow up or pop off or what?

Tim Latimer

Nothing's going to blow up. It would be completely dependent on the reservoir. I say impermeable. Impermeable is not really a great โ€” it's a meaningless word. Nothing is impermeable. Things are just more or less permeable. And what you find is even as you pressure up, there's more and more fluid loss. And so there's all kinds of things that are reservoir dependent and system dependent that would shift performance and round trip efficiency. But we've done some tests where, for example, we'll pressure up wells and then we'll go off and do other operations on other wells and come back and a month after we've worked on the well, there's still pressure in the system. So it's completely formation and reservoir dependent, but it certainly has the opportunity to be a multi-day storage system.

David Roberts

Interesting. Well, that is all the time we have. I'm being told to wrap up, so thank you all so much for coming. Thank you, Tim, for all your work. Thanks for Fervo.

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

What's the deal with enhanced rock weathering to store CO2?

In this episode, I talk with climate scientist Zeke Hausfather about how enhanced rock weathering (ERW) turbocharges a natural process to permanently store COโ‚‚. We dig into how it profits from existing infrastructure, and the big questions around measuring and verifying the carbon captured. Zeke also explains why farmers might actually benefit from spreading all those rocks โ€” and why ERW could become a key, if limited, piece of the broader climate puzzle.

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Text transcript:

David Roberts

Okay. Hello everyone, this is Volts for February 7, 2025, "What's the deal with enhanced rock weathering to store COโ‚‚?" I'm your host, David Roberts. If we want to restore a safe atmosphere, we will need not only to stop emitting carbon dioxide but to start pulling it out of the atmosphere and permanently sequestering it. Lots of it. Billions of metric tons of it.

There's broad and intensive work being done right now on various methods of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), most of which โ€” like industrial direct air capture โ€” seem dauntingly expensive and infrastructure-intensive.

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One method that has attracted a great deal of attention and money lately is enhanced rock weathering (ERW) โ€” truly one of the worst in a family of terrible acronyms โ€” ERW, which at least in theory could get started using existing infrastructure.

Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather

ERW sets out to accelerate the natural process whereby carbon in the air bonds with silicates in rock to become bicarbonates, which eventually filter their way down into rivers and oceans, where they are stored for thousands of years. That's the theory, anyway. This is a normal part of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but ERW turbocharges it by crushing up and exposing large volumes of basalt rock, mainly on agricultural land.

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Farmers already distribute crushed rock over their fields, so the infrastructure to do so is in place. They just need to use a different crushed rock.

Is ERW the first carbon-removal technology with a clear path to scale? Needless to say, there are all sorts of devils in the details. To dive in, I'm excited today to talk with Zeke Hausfather. Zeke is a climate scientist, modeler, and communicator, a longtime fave of the online climate world, but what's relevant here is that he also works for Frontier, a fund that is helping to scale up carbon dioxide removal and has a lot of money ready to go for ERW. So, let's get nerdy with this.

With no further ado, Zeke Hausfather, welcome to Volts. At last. Finally. I've been wondering when you'd finally make it over here.

Zeke Hausfather

Thanks, David. Yeah, I've been a long-time listener, first-time guest.

David Roberts

First, I just want to say, am I right? I heard your colleague Jane on a different podcast talking about rocks and she, by her own acclamation, rock-pilled, has gotten very excited about this. Am I wrong in saying that this seems to have kind of elevated itself a little bit among the carbon dioxide removal choices as sort of like the most promising short-term move here? Is that accurate?

Zeke Hausfather

I think it's definitely one of the more promising short-term options we have, both on a cost basis and also a time basis. You know, it takes a long time to build a giant new industrial-scale facility for something like direct air capture. You know, putting rocks on fields is low tech. And as you mentioned, you know, farmers have been doing this forever with carbonates or limestone. The problem, of course, with carbonates, as the name implies, is they have carbon in them. And so really, all we're talking about here is switching from carbonates to silicates, which don't, or, you know, applying silicates on land that traditionally have not been limed.

David Roberts

Right. So, what we have here is, at least in theory, the prospect of sequestering pretty large volumes of carbon using infrastructure that is mostly already built. So, this is like a way you can get immediately started, which is, I think, unique among major CDR options.

Zeke Hausfather

It also is an approach that potentially has less objectionable aspects than some other ones. You know, it's interesting, there's a lot of CDR approaches that involve adding alkalinity to natural systems. Ocean alkalinity enhancement is the most prominent one. We've talked about river alkalinity enhancement before.

David Roberts

Can we just pause there for the science illiterate among the Volts' listenership, including its host? Can you just talk briefly about what we mean by adding alkalinity and why that matters, why it helps?

Zeke Hausfather

Sure. So, in rocks like basalt or olivine are cations, particles like magnesium, calcium, a little bit of sodium โ€” there's not that much in the rock. And these particles are very basic. So, they neutralize acid. And that neutralization of acid, if done to carbonic acid, which is very prevalent in soil , because rain comes down with a bunch of carbonic acid in it, forms bicarbonate minerals, which are durable. They get swept out to the ocean and stored for tens to hundreds of thousands of years before eventually precipitating down as carbonates, which then get subducted, come out as volcanoes, and the cycle repeats.

And so, this is, as you mentioned in the intro, the biggest driver of the natural carbon cycle over geologic time. So, every year, the world sequesters about a gigaton of COโ‚‚ from the atmosphere in the form of primarily silicate weathering.

David Roberts

And this is just an array of base materials absorbing the carbon out of carbonic acid and making it into rock. Basically, yeah.

Zeke Hausfather

As rivers run through their beds, they weather some of the, you know, basaltic minerals or other mafic or ultramafic minerals. Those then form bicarbonates. And so, that gigaton that's being removed every year from natural rock weathering is roughly balanced by about a gigaton of COโ‚‚ coming out of volcanoes every year. And so, those two are in balance over, you know, tens to hundreds of millions of years.

David Roberts

Right. So, this process that we're talking about is underway all the time. It's natural. It's removing about a gigaton of COโ‚‚ a year. So, the idea here is just to take this ongoing natural process and just boost it.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so it's a big number globally because the globe is really big. But, you know, a given chunk of rock is going to weather very, very slowly, unless it's already in super fine form. And so the idea is to speed up this weathering process by, ideally, initially at least, using waste fines. So, leftovers from construction aggregates in basalt quarries.

David Roberts

Yeah, I want to get to the source of the rock, but just on the question of how to accelerate it, it's just as simple as increasing the surface area exposed to air and rain. Is that all there is to it?

Zeke Hausfather

So, the conditions also matter a bit. You know, the warmer and wetter it is, the faster the material weathers. All things being equal, more acidic soils will tend to result in a bit faster weathering than more basic soils. And if the soil is too basic, you can actually get carbonate precipitation. So, you know, it forms carbonates, which is not great. You ideally want it to form bicarbonates to get exported. It's one of the reasons that folks are targeting enhanced weathering projects in, you know, fairly acidic soils like the Eastern US, like Brazil, like India, areas where the level of acidity in the soils has actually become a problem and started hurting crop yields.

David Roberts

So, there are geographic constraints in where this can be applied.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, you don't want it on soils that are too basic. You don't want it in a place that's really cold. Now, there might be some ways around that. For example, there's a number of folks looking at a material called wollastonite in Canada. Now, Canada is cold, not that wet, but wollastonite is super, super reactive. There's just in the range of tens of millions of tons of it, readily accessible, not, you know, tens of billions of tons like we have for basalt.

David Roberts

Let's talk a bit then about where the rocks come from and what the rocks are. So, what you want is rocks with lots of silicates in them. Right? And those are mostly basaltic rocks, mostly volcanic?

Zeke Hausfather

Well, you want rock ultimately with lots of calcium and magnesium, but ideally, you don't want fossil carbon in those rocks. And so, limestone, for example, has a lot of calcium in it, but it also has carbon. Whereas silicates like basalt have a lot of calcium but don't have the carbon. They have silica instead. And so, the silica itself is not the active ingredient, so to speak.

David Roberts

Right.

Zeke Hausfather

It's the calcium, or in the case of olivine, the magnesium.

David Roberts

And so give us a sense then, of, are there any material constraints in our ability to find this kind of rock? Or, like, where all โ€” if we scaled this up, where would we be getting these rocks?

Zeke Hausfather

So, basalt is more or less the most โ€” one of the most common substances on the planet. It comes out of volcanoes that strip the COโ‚‚ out of it, and so it can reabsorb that COโ‚‚ on the flip side, when it weathers in the future. The challenge, though, is that you have to move a lot of material, and you ideally want to locate areas that have relatively acidic soils or could otherwise benefit from enhanced weathering that are within, say, 100 miles or so of a source of basalt. If you're starting to go longer and longer distances, you start getting a bigger and bigger hit, at least in today's world.

Maybe in the future, when we have completely electrified transportation, that's less of a burden, but it certainly adds to the cost as well. So today, we're primarily looking at locations where there's basalt near farmland. There are some other materials, like olivine.

David Roberts

And that's just natural โ€” that just happens geologically in some places, not others.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, I mean, basalt is in deposits in certain regions and less common in other regions. Though, again, it's pretty common all around the world.

David Roberts

What about these waste rocks that you're talking about using? What are they from?

Zeke Hausfather

So, when people quarry basalt today, it's primarily used for aggregates, for road construction, that sort of thing. And it turns out that you don't really want the rock dust in your roads. You want small particles. And so today, when basalt is quarried, they produce a huge amount of byproduct dust. Somewhere around 15% of the rock is waste fines, as they call it. And they pile these up in giant mountains next to the quarry, and when the quarry closes, they bulldoze it in, fill it up, call it a day. But those fines are exactly what you want for enhanced rock weathering, because they've already been ground up to really fine conditions.

David Roberts

Oh, good point.

Zeke Hausfather

And at least in the US, most states require that basalt be washed before it's sold to reduce the risk of dust exposure in projects. And so, because of that, you end up with really, really fine particles from that washing process that are, you know, recovered and stacked.

David Roberts

So that waste rock then is, when you find it, ready to be distributed, there's no additional processing that needs to happen to it?

Zeke Hausfather

Not really, no. I mean, again, it depends a bit on how fine it is. And there's some quarries and some states that have finer fines than others. The bigger challenge is just there's going to be a limit to the amount of waste fines available. You know, today there's somewhere in the range of 10 or so million tons of waste fines produced per year in the US, which is still a decent amount of CDR, but it's certainly not talking about the scale we're thinking about in the long term. There's another maybe 50 or 100 million tons of fine piles that have accumulated from previous quarry activity.

But eventually, you're going to run out of that, and at that point, you're going to have to grind new rock that's quarried specifically for enhanced rock weathering. Now, that isn't necessarily as problematic as you think from an emissions perspective.

David Roberts

I want to pause on this point because I want to get a sense of scale here. So, like, envision in the future a fully up and running global enhanced rock weathering business. How big of a chunk could the โ€” whatever you call it, 20 million pounds of basalt waste โ€” how big of a chunk is that? I mean, is that like 1%, 10%? Like, how far can we get with the existing waste piles, I guess, is what I'm trying to get.

Zeke Hausfather

Well, we're talking tons per year, not pounds. But regardless, you know, there's about 0.4 tons of carbon removal per ton of basalt when it fully weathers. So, let's say somewhere in the order of 5 or 6 million tons per year of carbon removal would be possible from existing streams of waste fines. And, you know, add in a fair bit more if you mine these legacy piles that have just accumulated in the past. But we're not really talking about beyond the like 10 million tons range available from fines in the US Obviously, other countries have fines as well.

But if we're thinking about hundreds of millions or billions of tons of carbon removal per year from enhanced rock weathering, you quickly run out of these wastes and you have to do dedicated quarrying.

David Roberts

Got it. The reason I'm trying to clarify this is just that this industry, if it really got up and running, could get a boost, a head start with existing waste rock, but eventually would have to transition to basically digging up and crushing rock on its own. That would be part of the industry. In the end, you're not going to ever get enough quarry mining to sustain what we need?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, and there already are some companies today that are doing dedicated production. You know, some projects in Brazil, for example, are using new rock โ€” projects using olivine, which is a much more material with a much higher CDR potential. So, you get 1 ton of CDR per ton of olivine compared to 0.4 for basalt. That is purposefully quarried today for projects. So, a little bit of this is happening even if most of the players today are starting at least with the waste fines if they can.

David Roberts

And if you dump a bunch of this waste rock on a field over and over again, year after year, are there no trace contaminants in there that might mess with your soil? Like, is this rock really clean in a way that's going to be okay for fertilizing plants?

Zeke Hausfather

So, you do have to be a little careful. Right. You have to make sure you're characterizing what you're putting on the fields. Most basalt deposits are pretty benign. There's not much contamination of things you don't want, but you'd still want to test it just in case. And at least with basalt, there's not really a huge worry about the accumulation of anything problematic at the rates we're talking about here. Olivine is potentially more of a challenge because it has high levels of nickel in it. It also has high levels of chromium, but it's not the chromium that we're worried about.

It's chromium 3 rather than chromium 6, which is not bioavailable. But even then, you'd want to carefully monitor that.

David Roberts

Are people mining olivine for other reasons or is it just a sequestration thing?

Zeke Hausfather

So, there are a few other industrial uses of olivine. It's used in some steel-related processes. But global production of olivine is relatively small. There are huge reserves. There are hundreds of billions of tons of olivine accessible. But historically, it's just not been a particularly valuable commodity. The one other challenge with olivine is, depending on the deposit, it could be co-located with asbestiform material or asbestos as we call it. And so, you want to make sure that the olivine you're getting doesn't come from deposits that have asbestos contamination. Because no one wants to put that on fields.

David Roberts

Right. And this is all, all of this care and consideration goes in on the front end. You're not going to crush up a bunch of rock and then do stuff to it to purify it. I'm guessing that would just add a bunch of cost.

Zeke Hausfather

It's pretty impractical to strip out things. You want to test on the front end. Make sure the deposits you're working with don't have any contamination that's problematic. And then, once you're starting to deploy this on fields, you are sampling the soil every year and making sure there is not a buildup of nickel or anything else that would be problematic. The good thing is, if there is, if you start seeing nickel levels that are higher than you want, you can always stop. You're not going to end up in a situation where you've contaminated the soil and it's too late.

David Roberts

Right. It's a slow-motion process.

Zeke Hausfather

And you're just not adding much rock per unit of soil. You add a lot over the entire farm, but any given piece of soil gets a small amount each year.

David Roberts

One more question about constraints. So, the amount of waste rock is somewhat of a constraint. You'll have to shift to quarrying its own rock. The geographic constraints we discussed, you need deposits of basaltic rock in proximity to acidic soil, basically.

Zeke Hausfather

Or other alkaline materials, you know, olivine, wollastonite. There are folks looking at things like steel slag or coal ash, but those have their own issues.

David Roberts

Yeah, coal ash would be interesting anyway. You need a source of some material next to acidic soil. Is that a meaningful restraint, or are we going to be able to get all we want out of those areas?

Zeke Hausfather

So, this is by no means a silver bullet. Right. Our best estimate is probably somewhere in the range of 1 to 2 gigatons per year potential of enhanced weathering globally at scale. To put that in perspective, we're emitting 40 gigatons per year today. Most of our scenarios have somewhere in the range of 6 gigatons per year of negative emissions by mid-century to deal with, you know, leftover emissions in the economy that we can't fully reduce.

David Roberts

So, even in the best-case scenario, this is a relatively small piece of the carbon dioxide removal puzzle.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, it's probably, if I had to guess, you know, 10 to 20% of the solution by mid-century.

David Roberts

Do you think it will be the single biggest piece?

Zeke Hausfather

That's a tough question to answer. I mean, I think the other one that is competing for that prize in the near term is biomass-based carbon removal. That has its own challenges around sustainable sourcing, making sure you're not cutting down trees to stick carbon underground, that sort of thing. The other area we're seeing a lot of movement in the near term is on big biomass-based carbon removal projects. Either things like bio oil, like Charm Industrial is doing, biochar waste injection of biological solids like Vaulted is doing, or the sort of big retrofits of bioenergy plants that we're seeing in Europe.

David Roberts

I just have such a thing about biomass. It's so messy and so tangled in so many different problems. I have a real aversion, a real aversion to it. You said alkalinity is sort of a family of solutions here. Talk us through a little bit about why you'd prefer to do this on agricultural land versus my understanding. The two main alternatives are you spread it on the beach, which I guess gives you more confidence that it's going to end up in the ocean, or you just put it in the ocean directly. Why would you prefer one of those over the others?

Zeke Hausfather

So, what you put in the ocean is going to differ a bit from what you can put in soils for a couple of different reasons. One is that soils are an environment that's really good at dissolving rocks in a way that's not necessarily true for marine environments. If you put basalt in the ocean, it's going to sink to the bottom, get mixed in with the sediments, and never really dissolve. The ocean's just really bad at dissolving basalt. It's too basic. The chemistry is different. It doesn't really have the conditions good for that. Olivine could dissolve in the ocean, but even then it's taken a lot longer than folks initially expected in some of the field trials folks have done around spreading olivine on beaches.

And so, there is some potential there, but it doesn't really fit well in today's markets because it's really hard to measure once you put stuff in the ocean.

David Roberts

We're going to get to that in a minute. That whole thicket.

Zeke Hausfather

For better or worse, when you put stuff in a field, it tends to stay there until it dissolves. This is not true for other environments, which makes the tracking somewhat easier. Though, there are other challenges.

David Roberts

I see. So, you think doing it on land is going to win in the end, or there will be some of each?

Zeke Hausfather

I think there'll be some of each. And I think it might be different materials. I think basalt is pretty firmly only going to be used in farmland, pastureland, maybe forest land. I think that if you're looking at rivers, there's been actually some interesting work being done there with traditional calcium carbonate. Even though it has some carbon in it, it still ends up being net CDR. It's not as efficient as silicates would be, but it dissolves a lot faster in freshwater and then in the oceans, there's a lot of interest in what we call ocean liming.

So, that would be taking limestone, heating it up in an electric calciner, stripping the COโ‚‚ out of it to produce calcium oxide, sequestering that COโ‚‚ underground, and then putting that calcium oxide in the ocean. But that ends up being a lot more complicated because you're sort of doing a traditional CCS technology on top of then distributing this calcium oxide in the ocean. I know the last approach that we're seeing is electrochemical approaches for ocean alkalinity enhancement. And there, you're essentially taking seawater and using electrodialysis or similar approaches to split the seawater into an acid and a base.

And you're taking that acid and disposing of it โ€” question mark exactly how โ€” and putting the base back in the ocean to enhance the alkalinity. And so that doesn't require any material. You're just splitting apart seawater with energy, but it requires a lot of energy, unlike the other approaches.

David Roberts

Interesting. So, this is just yet another area where, if you could reach that Valhalla of basically trivially cheap renewable energy, this is one of the things you could do with all that surplus renewable energy: speed up carbon dioxide removal.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, there's sort of two backstop technologies in the carbon dioxide removal world that could scale almost infinitely, given enough cheap clean energy, and those are direct air capture and ocean alkalinity enhancement, particularly the electrochemical types. But we're still pretty far from that world today, and it's pretty hard to justify projects that use a huge amount of clean energy that might otherwise contribute to grid decarbonization in the near term.

David Roberts

So back to this. You're spreading it on the soil, on agricultural soil. And the idea here is that it forms bicarbonates, and then the bicarbonates end up through the natural cycle, filtering down into rivers and then ending up in the ocean. And it is them ending up in the ocean that vouchsafes their permanent storage, basically. So one of the questions that came up when I was talking about this online earlier is that there seems to be some new research that shows that they're staying in place in the subsoil, basically, which risks, I guess, them losing their carbon again if they encounter the wrong kind of material.

So, I'm just curious about recent research. How confident are we that these things are actually making it to the ocean? Which is kind of the whole premise.

Zeke Hausfather

So, we're quite confident that they'll eventually make their way to the ocean. There is the potential, particularly in some types of soils, that you could have lags in the soil itself, or cation exchange site lags, as we call them. This is an area of very active research. There's been one paper that got a lot of criticism from one side, but support from another. But even that paper suggested that it really is going to be regionally dependent in sort of like sandy soils like in the Southeast, or soils in Brazil that have strong fracture flow patterns where you have very rapid drainage, it's probably less of an issue.

And somewhere like the Midwest, where you have a lot of water retention in soils, it's probably more of an issue. And so, even to the extent that this is a problem, and I think it is one that we need to take seriously, even if it doesn't affect the ultimate potential of enhanced rock weathering, it is going to be very regionally dependent. And it's something that folks, both economic researchers and companies, are starting to directly measure in deployments today, taking deep soil cores, you know, down to 80 centimeters, to track what's happening not just at the surface, but in the deep soil.

David Roberts

Right. So, just explain briefly, like, what's the danger here? What are we worried might happen instead of them going to the ocean?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so in general, we're worried about anything that might cause either a delay in the effect of carbon removal or a reversal of the carbon removal. Delays can be things like the cations, the calcium and magnesium get stuck on soil exchange sites and don't sort of get out of equilibrium with the atmosphere for a couple of years, which then delays when the effect of CDR happens. The other things we worry about is it's possible if you add too much alkalinity to soils or you're adding it to sort of basic soils, soils that are not acidic, that some of the bicarbonate can precipitate as carbonate.

So essentially, you lose half the COโ‚‚ you're storing, and that would make it half as effective. Now, that doesn't seem to be a big risk in most of the places we're targeting for deployments today. But if you tried to do enhanced rock weathering in, say, the Western US, you'd quickly run into problems with carbonate precipitation because the soils are more basic.

David Roberts

Right. But this is something you could track with testing. You could know if this is happening.

Zeke Hausfather

Well, if it's happening in the shallow parts of the soil, it's pretty easy to measure. If it's happening deeper in the soils, you know, it becomes more difficult to measure, but it is something that we nominally can test for. And then the final area of leakage that we're worried about, the final main one I should say, is what happens once the bicarbonate leaves the fields. And so there, you could, you know, drain into an acidic lake, for example, which would cause it to be re-released. You could end up encountering acidic water in waterways. In a different method though, we do sort of track pH of rivers.

So, this should be something that at least is reasonably easy to assess. And then, I think the biggest loss that we see in modeling at least, is what happens when it reaches the ocean. And there, it turns out that fresh water, for various reasons, is better at absorbing COโ‚‚ by adding alkalinity than saltwater is. And so, saltwater is about 15% less effective at absorbing COโ‚‚.

David Roberts

Oh, that's kind of a bummer, isn't it? If we have such big plans for storing COโ‚‚ in the ocean.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, but I mean, those numbers are sort of baked in, right? But you do end up losing somewhere in the range of probably 10 to 15% of the carbon you capture in the rivers and sort of the coastal areas when it equilibrates with the ocean. And so, those are all accounted for in projects today, at least as best we can.

David Roberts

Well, this sounds to me โ€” let's go ahead and wrestle with the MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) then. This sounds like a nightmare to track. Like, if there are things that can go wrong in the field and then deep in the field and then in the river and then in the ocean. And what you're interested in is how much of those bicarbonates made it to the ocean and got to the bottom and were safely sequestered. A) How on earth do you measure it and track it at all? But B) with such a complicated process, how do you get a shared measuring system upon which you can build actual markets?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so one of the developments that increased confidence in enhanced weathering as a pathway and led to folks starting companies and actually trying to do commercial projects with it, is dramatic improvements in the way we can measure the dissolution of the material. So, it used to be that folks suggested, "Oh, I'm going to spread this rock in the field and then claim a carbon credit for it." And obviously, if you're doing it on the wrong field or you're spreading millimeter-sized chunks of rock instead of micrometer, it might not dissolve for 50 years and it's not actually doing that much. And so, what we've been able to do in recent years is fine-tune the measurements of the rock dissolution using mass spectrometry measurements.

So essentially, what scientists can do is sample the soil in discrete locations before the deployment of the rock, immediately after the deployment of the rock, and then on an ongoing basis, either every six months or every year. And you can measure for the same location how much of the material is still there. But what you can also do, and this is particularly clever, is you can use stable tracers in the material to determine how much rock was applied in the first place. So, for example, basalt has a decent amount of titanium in it, not enough to cause any problems to the soil.

But titanium is a super super stable material. Once it gets into soil, it doesn't wash out. And so, if you know the ratio of titanium to calcium and magnesium in the soils, that actually tells you both before and after the deployment, how much of the rock was applied to that spot and what percent has weathered based on how that ratio has changed. If you've lost half of the calcium and magnesium, but the titanium hasn't changed at all, you've weathered 50% of the material.

David Roberts

So, that will tell you how much of the material has dissolved.

Zeke Hausfather

So, that's step one. That's when we can say there is, you know, "potential CDR has occurred." You know, the rock has dissolved, it's released the alkalinity that should be interacting with carbonic acid in the soils and forming bicarbonate. Then we have to do deeper cores and water-based measurements to actually track where the cations are flowing through the soils. And here, you know, it's a little harder. You're not going to do it like every acre like you would for the soil measurements. You're probably going to set up โ€”

David Roberts

Just to be clear, just to back up for one second, the soil measurements: These are a human being tromping out into the field and doing something physical. Right? This is manual...

Zeke Hausfather

It's a manual process. It's building off a huge existing industry for agronomic measurements and soil sampling that exists in places like the US. So, it isn't a new thing. A lot of farmers get their soil sampled pretty regularly. This is just a bit more intensive than you'd normally do. And instead of just tracking soil organic carbon and a few other things in the soils, you're actually running them through a mass spec machine and doing an isotopic analysis or elemental analysis of composition. So, it definitely is a bit more expensive on that front. And actually, today MRV is a big part of the cost of enhanced weathering projects.

A lot of projects we're seeing are spending $100 a ton of COโ‚‚ just on MRV today. But the idea there is that by collecting all this data at a very high granularity and high spatial resolution, we can then hopefully develop models that mean that we're always going to have to do some measurements, but maybe if we have good enough geochemical models, we'll have to do fewer measurements in the future. And so a lot of what early buyers like Frontier are trying to do right now is effectively buy down the cost of the pathway by collecting the types of data we need at large scales to reduce these uncertainties.

David Roberts

Part of what we're doing right now is figuring out how much measurement we need?

Zeke Hausfather

Exactly, and making sure we're measuring all the right things. I think that's the second challenge, making sure we're doing enough deep soil measurements, we're doing enough fluid measurements. There's also some interesting potential as we start scaling enhanced weathering deployments, to do measurements at a watershed basis.

David Roberts

Like, I can imagine measurements in the field of a variety of kinds. And I can imagine measuring like, "Okay, we dumped X amount on here, and then, you know, Y amount is gone. So that means X amount, you know, a certain amount is free in the soil now." But how do you measure that it got into a river and then subsequently that it got into the ocean?

Zeke Hausfather

Yes, so deeper soil measurements can show how the cations are flowing through the soils in fields themselves. But once you get to the rivers, you can also measure these concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon of free cations in the water. Now, the challenge with that historically has been that depending on the watershed, there could be a lot of different fields draining into that one river. And if you're doing like a single field in this entire watershed, you run into a huge signal to noise problem. But once we start seeing much larger scale deployments, like we're seeing in Brazil right now, for example, on thousands or tens of thousands of acres, then it becomes a lot easier to see a signal in river data as well as in the fields.

The oceans are always going to be a bit of a modeling world, just because the further downstream you go, the more dilute everything gets. But thankfully, we are actually pretty good at modeling ocean chemistry and, you know, carbonate chemistry in the ocean in particular. And so there might be a couple percent uncertainties, you know, beyond our best estimates.

David Roberts

But help me with this, Zeke, because the ocean's real big. Like, you put a little bit of base material in it, you know, from one field, it's like a one to kajillion ratio. Are you really able to detect that level of change?

Zeke Hausfather

Well, again, you're modeling what's happening in the ocean. You're not measuring it directly. But it's also important to emphasize that the actual carbon removal, the capturing of the COโ‚‚ in the formation of bicarbonate, is happening in the soils. You're not actually relying on the oceans to do anything except for store the bicarbonate. And oceans store an immense amount of bicarbonate. There's something in the range of, I forget if it's 20 or 60,000 gigatons of bicarbonate in the ocean. And so, changing that a little bit isn't going to affect ocean chemistry significantly. And so, as long as you're accounting for the dynamics of carbonate chemistry equilibration when it reaches saltwater and reaches the ocean, once it's there, it should be very stable.

And there's not much uncertainty on that front.

David Roberts

So, you helped write four Frontier guidelines for companies doing this on how they should measure and verify what is sort of good practice versus bad practice. Having gone through that exercise, are you now personally comfortable that we are able to measure this in a way that you feel confident about? That you would feel confident building a multi-billion dollar market on top of?

Zeke Hausfather

So, I think the challenge with enhanced weathering is that we have to make sure people are doing it right. The barrier to entry is so low to spread rocks in a field.

David Roberts

Yes, it's very true.

Zeke Hausfather

Anyone can kind of do it and make claims. But the actual doing the science right behind it, having a lab that can do hundreds of thousands of mass spec measurements, that can do all the sampling management and track the data over time, that's a much higher bar. And so, what we put together in these guidelines was essentially a guidance for buyers who are thinking about enhanced rock weathering. What to insist to make sure that it is doing it right, at least as right as we can today. Now, to your question of am I confident in this?

I think that it's always going to have more uncertainty than something like direct air capture, but at the same time, it has a lot more co-benefits. We haven't even talked about yield effects.

David Roberts

I just worry because this is something that comes up a lot in discussions of carbon credits and the exchange of carbon credits, which is just that the market actor has an incentive to want to maximize their apparent carbon removal, and buyers just want the cheapest carbon removal they can find. So, they're not super incentivized to scrutinize this sort of like nobody involved has a direct incentive to make sure things are done. You're putting all that weight on the regulators. You're basically, you need really good, really alert regulators in a market like this because there's just incentive to fudge around every corner, it seems like to me.

Do you not worry about that?

Zeke Hausfather

I mean, that's certainly the story of what we sort of call the legacy carbon offset market, writ large. Avoided deforestation credits, renewable energy credits under the clean development mechanism. That was additionality baseline manipulation. There's no end to shenanigans.

David Roberts

Yes. All that stuff. Does all that stuff not transfer right over to here? I mean, these things are being sold on carbon credit markets already, aren't they?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so I think there is a real worry that the market will move that way. I think right now we're sort of in a weird situation where there are a pretty small number of buyers. Like, for enhanced rock weathering, at least it's Frontier, Google, who's a Frontier member, but has done some of their own stuff, and Microsoft. And all three of us are primarily concerned about getting this right and scaling these technologies rather than maximizing the amount of tons we can claim. That said, that's going to change.

David Roberts

But this is true of any small, early market. Right?

Zeke Hausfather

I think now is the time to put in these safeguards, to have external standards organizations, to have registries that are putting science first. And in the case of enhanced rock weathering, we actually helped support a big community effort run by a nonprofit called Cascade that brought together 49 different academic scientists, as well as various other folks in the community, and spent a year putting together a foundation for some enhanced rock weathering document that sort of lays out the best practices for how to address each of these uncertainties. And we've seen the registries, the Isometrics, the Puros, the folks who put their stamp on these credits, increasingly align with that effort. So, I think there is a real need for external scientific bodies like what Cascade did to create standards for the field.

I think there is a need for standards organizations that are not just the buyers and the suppliers. And to be honest, the registries themselves, depending on how they're set up, might not have the purest of incentives.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Zeke Hausfather

And so, what we've been trying to do is not just prove this out in the field, but also build all the supporting infrastructure on the science side to make sure, you know, it's done right going forward. Because there is a real risk that someone does this badly. Either creates contamination of soils, using materials they shouldn't, or makes sweeping claims that can't be backed up by the actual measurements and creates a black eye for the field.

David Roberts

Right. Or we just spend millions of dollars for nothing.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, I mean, we know this works on a macro scale, right? I think the uncertainties are primarily around timing and the magnitude of some of the leakages. I would be hard-pressed to see a world where there's more than 30% of the carbon that's initially captured, lost before it's in durable storage. But that's still a pretty big number, right? Our best estimate is close to 15% now.

David Roberts

Tell me if this is crazy. This just seems like one of those things to me that's like, on the one hand, we know it's good, and we know that doing a bunch of it would be helpful, but on the other hand, it's just devilishly difficult to precisely quantify exactly. So, I just wonder, is quantification and credits and trading and buying of credits the right way to do this? Is there not some other way we could just sort of incentivize "do as much of this as possible," you know what I mean, and not pretend to be able to count the angels on the head of a pin?

I don't even know what that would โ€”

Zeke Hausfather

I mean, I feel like you're channeling my friend Jane Flegal, who โ€” this is one of her big arguments. I think there's some truth in that. Right. Like, I actually don't particularly like making offsetting claims with carbon removal, be it tree planting, enhanced rock weathering, or direct air capture. Like, I think it would be a better world if we're doing this because it's the right thing to do, not because we're, you know, pushing around some number in a spreadsheet to counterbalance our emissions.

David Roberts

Right. And a big thing, like the public, you know, it's like waste removal. It's something that the public should pay for.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, at the same time, there's not really any other game in town right now except for private, you know, voluntary carbon markets. Now, I don't think anyone, I don't think anyone thinks that's the long-term solution. Like, corporations doing things out of the goodness of their heart isn't going to solve our problems.

David Roberts

I have questions about this. Well, well, let's use this then to pivot. Because one of the things that's intriguing about enhanced rock weathering, and one of the reasons I've paid attention to it when I mostly just screen out CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) talk for now, is that there are reasons to do it aside from carbon storage. And therefore, there might be reasons that people would pay to have it done other than carbon storage. Right. Because carbon storage doesn't help anyone. It helps everyone, but it doesn't help anyone in particular. It's not really something that is of value to people beyond the sort of PR of appearing to be doing good things.

Right. Which, and I'm skeptical how far that's going to take us, but putting this stuff on soil does positive things to the soil that are a potential source of value. So, talk us through that just a little bit.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, and just to cover my bases, my previous argument, because I don't want to leave it on a statement that the voluntary carbon market is completely useless, I think how we see it is we're using this decade to create a bridge toward a world of compliance markets, of government procurement, of mechanisms that actually scale this that are not just corporations acting under the goodness of their heart. So, things we do right now should be aimed toward that, not just maximizing tons on paper. But on the co-benefits front, there's a few different co-benefits that are important to mention here.

One is that we've seen increased crop yields associated with enhanced rock weathering deployments. This is particularly true if you're deploying in a region that hasn't historically been limed. So where you haven't added limestone, you're not replacing it, you're just doing something new.

David Roberts

And what's the mechanism? Why would that happen?

Zeke Hausfather

So, there are two mechanisms where enhanced rock weathering can benefit crop yields. The primary one that's the most straightforward and most well understood is simply managing soil pH. If soils get too acidic, plants get less good at taking up nutrients, fertilizer is less effective, you have to add more of it, and your yields are lower. And today, farmers add enough limestone to their fields to get to the point at which the cost of adding more limestone is more than the yield benefit they get.

David Roberts

Right. So, this is why there's this giant industry in place already to spread crushed limestone on fields. It is to bring down the acidity of the soil.

Zeke Hausfather

Exactly. But most farmers don't add as much lime as they should if they really wanted to maximize yields, because at some point, it just gets too expensive or too operationally complex to add more.

David Roberts

Oh, the limestone gets expensive.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah. Or the yield benefits per unit of additional limestone decline after a point. Yeah.

David Roberts

Do we have any sense of how much this kind of rock would cost relative to limestone?

Zeke Hausfather

So, it's generally going to be a bit more expensive than limestone simply because you need more material to have the same pH benefits for soils. At the same time, if you're effectively subsidizing farmers deploying this based on the carbon benefits, you could more effectively manage soil pH. So, instead of stopping at the point at which you hit diminishing returns, you could actually add as much alkalinity as you can to maximize crop yields, because the carbon removal scales pretty linearly, even if the soil benefits start decreasing after some point.

David Roberts

And the carbon removal will pay for it.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, there's also a lot of parts of the world, like smallholder farmers in Mexico, like rice paddies in India, where there just hasn't been historical pH control because there's not the availability of limestone or it's too expensive for farmers to do. And there we see really big benefits of this. There's a company called Mati in India that's shown very large increases in rice yields. There's a company called Flux in Kenya that's seen similar findings on smallholder farms there. So, you really get the biggest bang for the buck if you're taking an agricultural system that hasn't done any mineral amendments, any rock amendments, and putting in silicates.

David Roberts

That's a pretty big deal. That's a pretty big benefit. Yeah.

Zeke Hausfather

And so, there's a lot of potential interest in what are the development dividends of this in the Global South. So, you could sort of get two for one, right? Help farmers increase their yields and sequester carbon. But the other way that you could potentially get higher yields from basalt compared to limestone is because basalt has a bunch of micronutrients in it that limestone doesn't. Limestone is pretty pure. There's just calcium carbonate and so those various nutrients like manganese, zinc, other things can also โ€” the silicate itself actually can also help with crop growth. And so, even in side-by-side trials where you put the same sort of liming strength equivalency of limestone and basalt on side-by-side fields, we're starting to see bigger yields from basalt, though we still need more data there.

A lot of these field trials are still in the early years.

David Roberts

Interesting. So, this is a source of value to farmers. So, how is this going to be integrated into the sort of market for this stuff? Like, how do you envision it working? Like, I'm a company, I go to a farmer and I say, "Hey, you're currently spreading limestone on your fields. I can supply you with a different kind of rock to spread on your fields and you'll get boosted output from it and we'll pay you to do it." What is the business model here?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so we've seen a few different ones. Some of the early companies are just paying farmers to spread the rock, period. They're not charging them anything. So, they both save on not having to pay for limestone if they previously did that. And they get the rock to spread for free. The revenue from the sale of carbon credits covers that. There are other folks who are looking more at models where you essentially charge the farmer a small amount, but you're still subsidizing a lot of the cost through carbon markets. And the reason for that is, again, as I mentioned earlier, you simply need more material in most cases for silicates than you would for carbonates.

Olivine is the one exception there. But olivine is also harder to get to a place; it's less ubiquitous than limestone. And so, for example, Eion, which is a company that's doing olivine-based enhanced rock weathering, is barging their olivine from Norway, which sounds crazy, but it turns out โ€”

David Roberts

Holy moly!

Zeke Hausfather

Oh no, no. It turns out, barging is remarkably efficient. Like, the carbon impact of barging is incredibly small compared to the distance traveled.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting.

Zeke Hausfather

But it still adds to the cost, primarily, and so that affects it as well. And so, it's hard to see a world where farmers are going to do this without some sort of incentive for the carbon benefit.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, that's what I was going to try to get at. Like, do we envision this, like could we envision this being the one kind of carbon dioxide removal that doesn't need a constant flow of public funds? You know, I mean, could it ever be self-sustaining just based on these co-benefits? Or do you think it's just like going to take the price down a little bit?

Zeke Hausfather

It's going to be a tough sell in most places to apply silicates compared to carbonates without some sort of incentive based on the climate benefits. Now, where I could see this happening is twofold. One is the existing voluntary carbon market that we see right now, which for all its warts and flaws is putting money toward this. The other that's potentially more interesting long run, is this idea of supply chain insetting. So, there's a lot of companies that have huge agricultural supply chains making food products. And agriculture is one of these fiendishly hard to decarbonize parts of the economy.

And so, this is one of the few ways that agriculture can durably store carbon as part of the agricultural process. You know, soil carbon, organic carbon is the other, but that's its own can of worms, no pun intended.

David Roberts

So could this show up in the farm bill then? Like is there interest in this outside of sort of carbon nerd circles?

Zeke Hausfather

There is. So, there has been some push to create a conservation standard as part of the farm bill that would give a subsidy for the application of silicates for soil pH control, similar to how there's a conservation practice for things like biochar. Right now, that's a relatively small amount of money, but every little bit helps. I think the other thing that folks have been looking into is there are some ways to create a pay-for-practice system at a bigger scale. So, essentially, pay folks to spread silicates at larger scales on farms through farm bill type incentives, or carbonates for that matter.

Liming is not great, but it turns out that particularly if you keep adding limestone beyond a certain point, it does become CDR, albeit half as effective.

David Roberts

So, all this lime spreading that's happening right now is, in some marginal way, a version of CDR.

Zeke Hausfather

It is. It's just not very good CDR. And there's sort of an ongoing debate about how much of the benefit is counterbalanced by interactions with other acids in the soils, which is also a risk for silicates, but less so because you don't have the carbon penalty. Right. But in an ideal world, if all of it dissolved and all of it formed bicarbonates and all of it went to the ocean, limestone would be about 40% as effective as basalt or olivine.

David Roberts

Interesting. And so, just like on the front end, the supply of waste rock is enough to get started, but not enough to sustain this at scale. We did end up having to dig up rock and crush it. Similarly, how big of an offtake is agricultural land? Is that going to be able to absorb all the rock we can dig up, or are we going to eventually run out of that too and have to find different places to spread this?

Zeke Hausfather

So, our best estimates, and I think I mentioned this earlier, is that global farmland and pastureland in places that have the right conditions, that are close enough to a source of rock, could probably scale to between 1 and 2 billion tons or gigatons per year. Once you want to go beyond that, you're going to have to look into different approaches, and that could be sufficient mineralization of these materials. You create a big pile of more reactive stuff and let it carbonate. You could potentially try to get it to dissolve in waters, but that is just harder with silicates, like putting it in rivers or beaches.

There are other ways that folks are looking into doing this, beyond just agricultural fields, but it seems, at least today, that this stuff dissolves by far the easiest in agricultural settings.

David Roberts

Right. So, just like waste rock and agriculture are the starting gun, kind of like the ways to get this up and rolling.

Zeke Hausfather

Exactly. And agriculture might be the ending gun too, depending on how much we end up needing to scale this.

David Roberts

Right. How well it works. I'm trying to get a sense of, like, how much infrastructure would be required once this is scaled up and how much energy is required, maybe relative to, like, other CDR proposals. I mean, you need transportation of the rock, the spreading of the rock. I assume all that's in place. So, I mean, it just seems like to get started here, there's not a huge infrastructure barrier. Is that accurate?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so today, particularly, if you're working with waste fines, all you really need to do is to find farmers who are willing to do it with you and find some trucks that can carry it from the quarry to the field and then use existing spreaders. You do need bigger spreaders in some cases. So, folks have used manure spreaders and others just because you're dealing with more material than you would with liming. But you could also use a smaller spreader and run it more times. You just have a slightly bigger hit in terms of the emissions if it's a gas-powered vehicle.

But overall, when folks have looked at lifecycle assessment studies of this, it's somewhere around only about a 5% hit to CDR over the lifecycle associated with transportation and spreading.

David Roberts

All of that accumulates to 5%?

Zeke Hausfather

If you're using waste fines as a starting point, if you're doing dedicated coring, that could be higher. It's going to depend on a lot of factors like what is powering your grinder? Is it electricity? What's the grid in the region? But that said, we're pretty good at crushing rock efficiently, at least down to the like 100 micrometer scale that we're talking about here. If you want to get it really, really fine, then it gets exponentially more difficult. But for the size of particles we're looking at for commercial deployments today, that'll primarily dissolve in the first five years.

You could probably do it for maybe another 3 to 5% hit on life cycle.

David Roberts

I don't know. It's just like when I think about mining, digging up millions of tons of rock, that just sounds like a big deal to me.

Zeke Hausfather

This is better thought of as quarrying than mining. And the reason is that most of these basalt formations that we'd be using are very close to the surface. So, you're not creating giant deep mines to get this material out, you're just sort of scraping it off the surface. There still obviously are impacts of that, right? Quarries displace forest, land or farmland. They create potential impacts in the community โ€” and potential jobs in the community. There's trade-offs here, but a single quarry can produce a huge amount of material from a CDR standpoint. So, even if the scale to a gigaton scale, globally we'd be doing like a 40% or so increase in the current scale of global aggregate production somewhere in that range.

David Roberts

Very interesting. So, let's talk about Frontier and what it's doing and what you sort of envision the sequence of events here, the sequence of political events and policy events. So, Frontier was started because we need a lot of CDR, governments are not doing what they need to be doing. So, the idea here is you're collecting private money, you're offering what are called advanced market commitments, which just says, "If you can sequester the carbon, we will pay for it." So, just talk a little bit about how that works in the context of this, what that means.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, so if we go back in time a few years to say 2019, when Stripe Climate, which then sort of developed into Frontier, originally started, there was a huge amount of talk about carbon removal and pretty much nothing happening in the real world. And so, Stripe Climate was the first customer of Climeworks, of Charm Industrial, of all these initial startups in the early days of this market. But they quickly ran into a problem where there was no real buyer for expensive durable carbon removal. In part because there are existing carbon markets, but they were paying, I don't know, I think the average price now is $4 a ton, which if you are paying $4 a ton.

David Roberts

These are like optimistically 100, $150 a ton, right?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, and if you look at things like direct air capture, you're probably upwards of $500 a ton today. So certainly, some of the technologies are expensive, but the point is that these can get cheaper and the only way to make them cheaper is to actually do them in the real world and learn how they work. And so, the idea with Frontier was less about maximizing the amount of tons we're removing and more about being catalytic on the technology side to essentially use this decade to figure out what works and what can scale, to sort of maximize shots on goal.

And that's one of the reasons that we try so many different approaches in ocean alkalinity enhancement, enhanced rock weathering, direct air capture, bio oil injection, BECCS; there are dozens of different types of CDR approaches.

David Roberts

So do you have concrete Advanced Market Commitments, AMCs, do you have them out on paper to all those technologies at this point?

Zeke Hausfather

So, there are two different types of projects Frontier does. The first are small-scale pre-purchases, which are really almost grants. We don't count any carbon from them for companies. But the idea there is, it's a lab-scale prototype with some professors with a good idea who want to build their first project. And so, those are half a million dollar initial grants with a potential million dollar re-up if they show progress. So that's one side of the equation that's trying to find all the crazy new ideas that might not work, but at least we want to try them.

And that's sort of where we started, but the other side, that's becoming much more of the focus now that some of these pathways are maturing, are large offtake agreements. These are usually somewhere in the range of 20 to $50 million agreements that are pay on delivery. So essentially, we say we will buy this many tons over this period from this facility you're building, but we will only pay once those tons have been removed from the atmosphere and verified.

David Roberts

Yeah, this is just crucial to emphasize. This is not "We're going to give you money and we hope you go do this." It's "If you can sequester the carbon and demonstrate that you did it, then we pay."

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, we'll give you a purchase order. But the important thing there is that that company can then take that purchase order to the bank and say, "Hey, look, we have this $50 million deal with these very reputable companies. Can you lend us money to build this first-of-a-kind plant?" It's still challenging for them. They'd prefer to get the money up front, to be honest.

David Roberts

I'm sure they would.

Zeke Hausfather

But we also want to hedge our bets here a little bit. And so again, the idea with spending the billion dollars in change that we're going to hopefully be spending by 2030 is to really catalyze as many different areas as possible. At this point, we've done offtakes in enhanced rock weathering, we've done offtakes in direct air capture, we've done offtakes in multiple different types of biomass approaches. We've done offtakes for river alkalinity enhancement, wastewater system alkalinity enhancement. We haven't done anything directly in the ocean yet.

David Roberts

This is slightly off our topic, but I'm just curious, so I have to ask. As you say, there was a bunch of talk years ago, but nobody really knew. It was mostly talk. Nobody's really doing anything, so nobody really knew what kinds of things would work. There's a lot of big ideas floating around. Now that you've had โ€” what is it, five years โ€” of real practical experience funding and building these things, are there sort of macro conclusions that have emerged about sort of like, what are the promising areas and what aren't? Like, have we learned enough to foreclose any routes or elevate any?

What are the kind of, the big things we've learned?

Zeke Hausfather

There are some examples of pathways that just haven't really panned out. Macroalgae sinking is one that got a huge amount of attention a few years back.

David Roberts

People love that. People love that. So, that's not paying off.

Zeke Hausfather

No, it turns out it's really hard to actually do in practice and really hard to track what's happening. One of the bigger companies that raised a lot of money in that space ended up shutting down last year. So, that's an example of an area that we've probably pivoted a little way from. We can't fully preclude the possibility that something would work there. It's just been a lot harder than expected. In general, we've gained a recognition for how hard it is to build things in the real world. One of the corollaries of that is that there's something to be said for low-tech approaches.

One of the reasons why pumping poop underground or doing enhanced rock weathering, or adding lime to rivers is a good idea, is that it's pretty easy to do. "You don't need many miracles," as we say. Whereas, stuff like direct air capture has huge potential down the road. But you need both huge amounts of cheap clean energy and a lot of technological developments. At the same time, you could make the argument that you might get more learnings from building a DAC plant than spreading rocks in a field. But, spreading rocks in a field, we're still taking a huge amount of measurements, doing a lot of science on that too.

So, I think it's too early to preclude particular pathways here. But we've definitely seen some fall in cost faster than others. And some, like direct air capture that are still promising in the long run, are probably going to be a bit more expensive in the near term than we originally thought.

David Roberts

Right. And so, through this process, is what sort of enhanced rock weathering kind of rose to the surface as A) low tech, B) able to get started using existing infrastructure, and C) has some co-benefits that could ease its passage into the real world. I mean, is that accurate? That's why this one has sort of like gained a little prominence.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, I'd add one more to that, which is that people don't mind doing things to farms that they would mind in other contexts. So, there's been a huge amount of difficulty in getting ocean alkalinity enhancement projects up and running. Part of that is some mess around the London Protocol and dumping and the legacy of the Russ George guy who tried to dump iron filings off the coast of Galapagos and rogue geoengineering experiments.

David Roberts

Right, I forgot about that.

Zeke Hausfather

That's cast a whole mess over the field. But even beyond that, there's been a lot of community opposition to putting, to be honest, pretty benign chemicals like magnesium hydroxide into waste pipes, because it's putting chemicals in the ocean.

David Roberts

Even if we've sort of made peace with science and farming together, right?

Zeke Hausfather

Exactly. We already put all kinds of stuff on farmlands. And so, even though it all ends up in the ocean, at the end of the day, it's much more palatable for environmental groups and for others to do interventions in farming systems than in natural systems like the ocean.

David Roberts

So, the big arguments in favor of enhanced rock weathering sound to me then are political economy arguments. They're practical.

Zeke Hausfather

I mean, it's also relatively low cost compared to a lot of other pathways and fast to deploy. You're not spending three to five years building a giant facility. You can put rocks in the field next year.

David Roberts

And if we were hoping for substantial cost declines, where would those come from? I mean, the advantage of the infrastructure already existing is that you can just start using it. But the disadvantage is that to the extent you can squeeze costs out of that infrastructure, a lot of them have already been squeezed out. So maybe there's not a lot more to squeeze out. Do you envision this getting much cheaper over time?

Zeke Hausfather

So, I think compared to where we are today, which is the very, very early days, it can get a lot cheaper. We're seeing somewhere in the range of $300 a ton for most projects today. Some a bit cheaper, some a bit more expensive.

David Roberts

There's just a bunch of tests going on, right? This is not happening. Everything that's happening around this is a test at present, right?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, I mean, some of them are being done by commercial companies, but they are very much research-driven at this point. We're not seeing scaling to millions of acres or hectares with projects operating today. And so, I think costs can come down in a few ways. One is we can get the MRV cheaper. We can have models that we trust and not be paying $100 a ton to do huge amounts of mass spectrometry measurements of soil cores. Another is that we can just get economies of scale in terms of efficiency and logistics. A big part of that is getting more favorable agreements for the feedstock with quarries.

If you're a bigger customer, you can get down prices a lot. Part of it is getting more farms that are closer to quarries enrolled, reducing transportation costs through larger loads or bigger deployments. There's a lot of different ways that some of these costs can come down. And so, we think that ultimately the range of costs we're looking at on a dollar per ton of carbon basis down the road is probably somewhere in the range of $80 to $150 a ton of COโ‚‚, which is still expensive, but for permanent carbon removal, stuff that takes carbon out of the atmosphere for tens to hundreds of thousands of years or more, that's among the cheapest that we have today.

David Roberts

I was going to say that's relatively cheap in the family of permanent sequestration methods.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, it's not going to be cheaper than planting trees, but it's also a different thing.

David Roberts

Still quite aspirational.

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah. But even today, $300 a ton is on the cheaper end of โ€”

David Roberts

Oh, good God.

Zeke Hausfather

But again, we're five years in. Right? Everything is a first-of-a-kind project.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah. You know, the whole reason Frontier exists is that national governments were not doing what they need to be doing. And given recent developments in national governments, it doesn't seem like we're entering a period where there's lots of good policy that's going to happen. But nonetheless, in the spirit of hope and optimism, if the US government got religion on this, what kind of policy would you like to see?

Zeke Hausfather

So, I think you raise a bigger challenge here, which is something that keeps me up at night a little bit. You know, working in at least part in the CDR world, is that CDR only really makes sense if we solve the other parts of decarbonization. If we're emitting 40 gigatons a year, in 50 years, CDR is going to be setting money on fire.

David Roberts

And I just like, I know you know that and I know that. I hope everybody else knows that because I get real worried that there is a class of people who would love to see this as an excuse to keep going on fossil fuels. I know that those people exist.

Zeke Hausfather

I mean, if you're spending even $100 a ton, not to mention $300 or $500 a ton, to remove carbon from the atmosphere after you put it up there, that's a lot more expensive than 80 to 90% of the emission reductions we can do globally today.

David Roberts

Yes, it would be the most expensive way to go about it.

Zeke Hausfather

This idea that people are going to just do a ton of CDR down the road to clean up our mess doesn't pass the smell test. And I think that in that sense, the high cost is a bit of a feature, not a bug. I worry a lot more about the moral hazard issue with the $4 a ton offset credits on the voluntary market today than I do $500 a ton credits. Nevertheless, I think it's important to be clear how we talk about this. But yeah, to your question, I think that governments, this is only going to scale if governments take climate more seriously broadly and if governments take CDR more seriously as we start getting closer to meeting our climate goals.

And those two sort of go hand in hand. We started seeing, during the Biden administration, some important steps in the Department of Energy around procuring CDR, a procurement prize, wasn't a huge amount of money. I think it was like $50 million.

David Roberts

Right. So, one thing government could do is just exactly what you're doing. These advanced market commitments.

Zeke Hausfather

No, we'd love to see a Frontier for governments. Yeah, we shouldn't spend too much money on that. If we spend 1% on CDR of what we're spending on mitigation globally, I think that would be fine today. You know, it's probably going to be 10% by mid-century or more as we start getting closer to net zero and don't have to do as much mitigation. But we're also spending $2 trillion a year on clean energy globally. And so, 1% of that is still not chump change.

David Roberts

Right, right. So, advanced market commitments, do you think that's the main thing? Just because they're technology-neutral, they get everybody moving? They get everybody moving towards a common goal? Is that it? Do you want DOE doing direct research in CDR?

Zeke Hausfather

Yeah, I think we need a few different ways that the government can be involved here. One is on standard setting. As you mentioned earlier, there is a real need for strong guardrails to avoid repeating the mistakes of the legacy carbon market here. And to the extent that the government can play a role there, I think it's a really important one. At the same time, we need to be careful because, as the legacy of corn ethanol teaches us, government itself is subject to some regulatory capture on the science side. So it's not a perfect thing, but it certainly can play an important role on the standard-setting side.

I think direct procurement is a useful function, and I think there's also just a lot of basic science that still needs to be done. NOAA can develop better sensors for ocean pH that can help validate ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments. There's a lot more interesting science that is being done, particularly in some of the more emergent CDR pathways that I think the government has a strong role in supporting. So, I think AMC type approaches, direct procurement, standard setting, and research are all areas that I think are important. We will see where that goes in the new administration.

David Roberts

Yeah, I was going to say, it kind of feels like you're on your own for the next four years. Do you have any reason to believe otherwise? What is your sense of the bipartisan-ness of this whole area?

Zeke Hausfather

I think CDR, for some weird reason, codes a bit more bipartisan than other things. It's similar to nuclear in some ways, in that regard. And I think we need to be a little careful if we embrace that, to make sure that the arguments being made for CDR are accurate and not treating it as a "get out of jail free card" for actually getting rid of fossil fuels.

David Roberts

I worry that that's precisely why it's a little bit more bipartisan. It's because, yeah, there's that hovering in the background. Well, Zeke, this is absolutely fascinating. As I suspected it would be. Thank you so much for walking us through this. And thank you to all you folks at Frontier for getting going on this, because nobody else would.

Zeke Hausfather

Thanks. And again, you know, we want to be humble and recognize that, you know, CDR is 10% of the solution to climate change, but 10% of a problem as big as climate change is something that deserves having people work on it.

David Roberts

Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely. Well said. Thanks, Zeke.

Zeke Hausfather

Take care.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

The cybersecurity implications of a clean-energy grid

In this episode, I speak with Harry Krejsa of Carnegie Mellon about why cybersecurity experts and clean energy advocates need to work together. Drawing from his White House experience, Krejsa explains how a modernized clean energy grid could actually help defend against China's cyberthreats โ€” for the benefit of both peaceniks and natsec hawks.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Hey, hey, hey, everyone. This is Volts for February 5, 2025, "The cyber security implications of a clean-energy grid." I'm your host, David Roberts. Last year FBI Director Christopher Wray warned Congress that China is engaged in large-scale efforts to hack vulnerable US infrastructure, including the US electricity grid. Agencies like the Government Accountability Office have warned for years about the grid's increasing vulnerability.

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Into that milieu, we are introducing gigawatts of clean energy, which tends to involve systems that are much more digital and online and interconnected than their fossil-fuel predecessors. Is all that new "smart" tech going to increase vulnerability to Chinese hackers? Or can it help guard against them?

Harry Kresja
Harry Kresja

Harry Krejsa has lots of thoughts on that subject. Until recently, he was working in the Biden White House, helping to develop the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy. Now, he is the director of studies at the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology, from whence he has just released a new white paper with the somewhat overheated title โ€œSun Shield: How Clean Tech & Americaโ€™s Energy Expansion Can Stop Chinese Cyber Threats.โ€ So, will clean energy be a cyber shield or a cyber vulnerability? We're going to dig into all the details.

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All right then. So, with no further ado, Harry Krejsa, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Harry Krejsa

Thank you for having me. I'm honored to be here.

David Roberts

This is a subject of much fascination for me, and I feel like it's an undercovered subject that's going to be covered a lot more in the coming years. So, I'm glad to get here on the front edge of it. But I'll just tell you, just putting my cards on the table up front, I am, in my heart of hearts, a dirty hippie, what they used to call a peacenik, and as such, have what I think of as a pretty healthy skepticism toward the US security apparatus and US security agencies. So, I will just say that when Christopher Wray comes to Congress, in the context of asking Congress for a bunch more money and says, "Ah, there are Chinese hackers everywhere, they're behind you right now. They're probably under your desk, like, this is a looming threat, we need lots more money." I am โ€” my eyebrow goes up. And I kept reading these articles about the Chinese threat and one thing I thought was notable is that at no point does anyone say, "The Chinese hacked US infrastructure and then did X, had X effect, caused X damage, X dollars of damage." It's all "they're preparing and lurking and they're out there just waiting." So, you see where I'm coming from as a peacenik. All of this sounds like classic US security apparatus threat inflation to me somewhat.

So, I want to just start by maybe you can just convince me that there's a real and pressing threat here.

Harry Krejsa

Certainly. And that skepticism that you mentioned is a healthy one. And it's why I was excited to come talk to you and the Volts audience, who I imagine probably share some of that skepticism. Skepticism that I also shared coming into this space. I'm a Chinese linguist by training. I began my career working in China and Taiwan. And when I came back stateside, I started researching US-China technology competition, which brought me into government service. I started in the Pentagon on their civilian staff during the first Trump administration. And then after the Biden transition, I took a political appointment into the White House.

And across that time in government, I was the most granola-crunching person I knew at the Pentagon, but โ€”

David Roberts

Probably a pretty low bar.

Harry Krejsa

Indeed, but I cleared it. But during that time, I learned all about how and why China's building these kinds of cyber capabilities to threaten our infrastructure, and to my pleasant surprise, how clean energy could be uniquely capable of helping protect us from exactly those kinds of threats. There's a clichรฉ that the thing that Americans most frequently get wrong about international relations is that other countries have domestic politics too.

David Roberts

I thought they just sat around talking about America. Like, "What do you think about America?"

Harry Krejsa

Well, I think that might be the case in lots of places and that their politics also reflect that part of our politics. But yeah, they have their own internal considerations, as it turns out. The domestic politics of China, the People's Republic of China, revolve specifically around the Chinese Communist Party's obsession with remaining in power and protecting itself against challenges to its legitimacy. That includes decades of talking points about how democracy and democratic values are just not appropriate for or compatible with Chinese history and culture. The problem with that line of argument is, of course, Taiwan.

You know, Taiwan is this flourishing, self-governing democracy of 25 million people who have the same Chinese lingual and historical heritage.

David Roberts

Kind of embarrassing that it's just sitting right there, next door.

Harry Krejsa

Yes, and its continued existence, as you said, is an embarrassment and a source of frustration for the Chinese Communist Party, one that Xi Jinping has said in speeches he does not intend to pass on to a successor. So, it's been widely reported that he's told his military to be prepared to violently conquer Taiwan by the end of the decade. These preparations include a buildup of arms and ammunition, construction of amphibious landing craft to cross the hundred-mile strait of Taiwan, and storm its beaches. We can see these craft from space.

But it also includes preparing to kneecap the United States so that we cannot come to Taiwan's rescue.

David Roberts

Yeah, I was going to say the last I heard, and I haven't followed this closely, but the last I heard, Biden was asked very straightforwardly, "Will you step in if they go after Taiwan?" And he said very straightforwardly, "Yes." So, as far as I know, the US Government's position, correct me if I'm wrong, is still "This will trigger action on our part."

Harry Krejsa

We have historically had a strategic ambiguity about that answer. And so, that level of explicitness, there's been some debate about what was said and what was meant and all that.

David Roberts

Whether Biden was fully in control of all the implications of his speech, you mean?

Harry Krejsa

Right, but that is probably why China has not done so yet. And in addition to the political affinity that we share with Taiwan, being a long-time partner and democratic friend, the global semiconductor market is centralized in Taiwan to a tremendous degree. And so, any kind of violent confrontation over Taiwan would be very likely to damage the famously fragile semiconductor manufacturing base there and could, you know, as a result, plunge the globe into a worldwide catastrophic depression.

David Roberts

And this was, if I'm not mistaken, a large part of the impetus for the CHIPS Act. Right. I mean, it's the whole reason we're trying to onshore that industry.

Harry Krejsa

Precisely, precisely in partnership with Taiwan. Though that dependency does help give them more confidence in our friendship and willingness to come to their rescue in the event of such a violent takeover.

David Roberts

Right. So, it's really just all down to Taiwan? Like, I mean, there are larger, major power maneuvering considerations going on here, surely?

Harry Krejsa

Sure. And I think that Taiwan is more of the lens through which the general two last superpowers-standing kind of dynamics are unfolding, right?

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Harry Krejsa

And unfortunately, it's a very sharp lens through which that is coming together. We know that these kinds of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure are not science fiction because we've seen them unfold elsewhere. Just a decade ago, Russia was able to bring down Ukraine's power grid with a series of cyber attacks that plunged hundreds of thousands of people into darkness. At the beginning of the Biden administration in 2021, Colonial Pipeline suffered a ransomware attack by criminal gangs that caused a fuel shortage and momentary gas panics on the eastern seaboard. There was even a water treatment plant in Florida where, again, a criminal actor was able to remotely access the control systems for that water treatment plant and set it to flood its water stores with lye.

But that was, like, caught and reversed at the last minute.

David Roberts

Yeesh.

Harry Krejsa

Yeah.

David Roberts

It's also the case that, like, three drunk rednecks in North Carolina shot an electricity transformer and shut down electricity service to an enormous swath of the region. By which I mean, US infrastructure is vulnerable in a lot of ways. And it seems to me a lot of those ways are domestic. Entirely domestic. And a lot of those ways are analog. Do you know what I mean?

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely.

David Roberts

So what percentage of the total vulnerability of US Infrastructure is foreign digital hacking specifically? I guess I want to try to contextualize it a little bit.

Harry Krejsa

So, it's qualitatively different buckets. Right. You know, it's difficult to protect a random rural substation against anti-government activists from shooting it up with an M16. Right. But that is not very systemically impactful. It could have a local impact. But the threat advisories put out over the last year and a half or so by Microsoft and reporting by various news outlets and those congressional testimonies you mentioned have all been pointing to the Chinese security services attempting to gain access for systemic impact into places like, again, according to publicly available reporting, the Texas power grid, water utilities in Hawaii and Guam, major west coast ports, things that, because of their digital connectivity, are able to leverage it into systemic impact for two effects, right.

The first one is to scramble our logistical ability to mobilize a rescue mission for Taiwan. But the second, as you mentioned from Director Wray, was to disrupt essential services for US civilians, and as another government leader put it, to "induce societal panic" so that we wouldn't have the political will to support that rescue mission.

David Roberts

So, the idea is that this is all basically to thwart any US effort to save Taiwan? It seems like a little bit of, like a bank shot. Well, wait, aren't they more direct?

Harry Krejsa

The Chinese Communist Party sees the United States as probably the only actor that could stand in the way of a violent takeover of Taiwan. And so, they're doing everything they can. They're pursuing missiles that are particularly good at targeting and taking down aircraft carriers because that's one of our comparative advantages. They are trying to bulk up on ammunitions that can get to Taiwan and destroy Taiwan's defenses before our ships can make it across the Pacific Ocean. But they do see our disproportionate digitization as a society, as an economy, as a way that they could try and circumvent our conventional military advantage.

And that's what's motivating them.

David Roberts

And I think they also view us as kind of lush, decadent, weak-willed, and unlikely to put up with much sacrifice in the name of defending a faraway land.

Harry Krejsa

That is correct. I think that they might be off there as far as like a "rally around the flag" technique if they indeed started trying to target American civilians. But whether or not โ€” in like, China analysis circles, it is a truism that China has generally been bad at predicting the political intuition for democratic countries. Like, they just don't have practice at it. In the 90s, Taiwan was flirting with electing a more pro-independence party for the first time. And so, China fired a series of missiles over Taiwan to try and intimidate them out of it.

And of course, that just inspired Taiwan to rally around those candidates.

David Roberts

It sparked weeks-long rallies and people in the streets.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly right. And so, that's like, I think, an underrated source of instability.

David Roberts

Well, I mean, the inability to predict the US response is one thing. The inability to predict a Trump administration response is perfectly forgivable and understandable as it is.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly. But I think that the fact that we have now found Chinese hackers lurking on civilian critical infrastructure, gaining and maintaining access and the ability to control it, including infrastructure that doesn't have a military purpose.

David Roberts

Right. But to be clear, the examples we have on record are them gaining access. We can't really point to them having done anything with it yet, can we?

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. But part of that is because doing something with that would be seen as an act of war, like targeting civilians. Right. So, what you would want, if you are the PRC and you want to, you know, frighten or deter the American people out of coming to Taiwan's rescue, you want to be in place to pull the trigger.

David Roberts

Keeping your powder dry.

Harry Krejsa

Precisely.

David Roberts

But accumulating powder.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly.

David Roberts

All right. And explain what Volt Typhoon is in the context of this.

Harry Krejsa

Sure. Volt Typhoon is a taxonomic moniker, a code name that Microsoft's threat intelligence shop gave to a part of the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, that has particular expertise, tactics that they can recognize over time and track to different kinds of targets. And so, Volt Typhoon is this corner of the PLA that has been โ€” with particular skill and stealth โ€” embedding itself in various critical infrastructure networks, those power grids, water utilities, ports, et cetera. And Microsoft unveiled this in, I believe, late 2023.

David Roberts

So, it was a private Microsoft investigation that uncovered all this stuff.

Harry Krejsa

It's often โ€” there is a fair amount of collaboration in both the unclassified and classified spaces where governments and threat intelligence firms will pass information and say, "Are you seeing this? Do you have context for that?" Indeed, Microsoft was able to track this down in the public domain. That also allowed the United States to connect a few more dots together and provide that context and declassify intelligence for Congress to do that.

David Roberts

Did the Chinese Communist Party ever acknowledge Volt Typhoon or admit, or is it all full denial down the line?

Harry Krejsa

It is all full denial down the chain. And this has been the case forever, including when, like, we are able to track the forensics of various hacking operations. And they all, like, start at 8 a.m. Shanghai time and conclude at 5 p.m. Shanghai time. Like, you know, they're getting much better at their tradecraft. But even when it has been obvious, they have a, you know, "We will never acknowledge this" sort of posture, of course.

David Roberts

And let us not be naive. Surely, there are groups of Americans working to penetrate Chinese infrastructure systems. Do you not think?

Harry Krejsa

Well, surely I would not be naive, but I don't have anything further to say about that.

David Roberts

We should just deny that all down the line, too.

Harry Krejsa

I would say that the United States observes international standards and norms around the law of war and humanitarian protection, and targeting civilians in peacetime is not something that we or our allies do.

David Roberts

Okay, well, I'll just leave that there with my raised eyebrow. So, let's talk then about the vulnerability of the grid, basically. This is about the digital vulnerability of the grid. So, before we get to clean energy, the grid that all these people are talking about being more vulnerable is, for the most part, not composed of clean energy. The one that we're talking about being increasingly vulnerable is still mostly the fossil fuel grid. So, why, given that the grid has been basically the way it is for like, a century now, why is it suddenly becoming more vulnerable to hackers?

Harry Krejsa

So, you had mentioned at the top those GAO reports about how the threat is proliferating. Basically, the dynamic here is if you're trying to think of the cybersecurity of a complex system like our grid, you can think of your options along a spectrum. On one end, you have basically no Internet connectivity whatsoever. In tech policy, we call that an air gap where there's nothing connected to the Internet.

David Roberts

Certain nerds in the audience right now will be thinking about Battlestar Galactica.

Harry Krejsa

Precisely, the Adama maneuver, that's right.

David Roberts

"Reboot," which begins with a fully analog ship, because the robots have taken over all the computers.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly. And there are benefits to that approach. Indeed, some extremely valuable but extremely fragile parts of our infrastructure, of our national security apparatus, are indeed air-gapped and they depend on that kind of thing.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting, because I was going to ask like, is that a substantial part of anyone's recommendations that we sort of have like some percentage, some small percentage of power infrastructure air gapped, just in case?

Harry Krejsa

It depends on particular circumstances. I think the issue is like the opposite end of that kind of spectrum of security perspectives from the air gap is leaning in totally on being digitally native, on recognizing that, you know, we are living in a digitally enabled world. The ship has sailed on, you know, some parts of our infrastructure being connected to the Internet. So, we might as well.

David Roberts

The only way out is through.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly, exactly. And so, you want to say, "All right, we're going to make everything as digitally native as possible, where it can be updated, it can be patched, it can, you know, fail gracefully and quarantine the bad stuff." Unfortunately, where we are is in that messy middle, which is the worst of all worlds. I'm exaggerating when I say, "Dams with dial-up modems slapped to the side of it," but only slightly.

David Roberts

So, we have infrastructure that was not designed to be digital, not digitally native, that has been sort of drafted into digitization, slapped a modem on the side of it. And so, we're kind of in a worse of both worlds.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly, exactly. And the promising thing about the clean energy transition is that it is bringing a wave of recapitalization into the electricity sector of new technology that is digitally native, that can be made defensible.

David Roberts

Right. And here we come to, I think, a really central question because, like my strong, I guess I'm guessing probably anyone's strong intuition is just that if you bring in much more digital equipment, you are proliferating your threat surfaces or whatever the hell they call them in the security world, you know what I mean? Like, you have now digital interfaces by the millions. And what's more, I mean, I'm getting a little ahead of myself now, but we'll get all this out now. What's more, not just lots more digital equipment onto the grid, but digital equipment coming from small vendors and like mom and pop shops, like startups.

You know, there's lots of โ€” now there's like, it's not just a couple of big power companies that you could theoretically corral and control. We're proliferating the places from which things enter the grid too. And, it's just that's distributing too. So all of that sounds to me like more vulnerability. More, more, more. So convince me that a distributed grid filled with digital interfaces is not more vulnerable to hackers.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And your intuition is correct and historically well supported. But as we said earlier, the only way out is through here. And so, it is both simultaneously true that the threat surface is proliferating exponentially and we are gathering the tools we need to make everything more secure, resilient, and defensible than it would have been in a legacy fossil infrastructure paradigm otherwise. One of the analogies that I like to use is basically the fire code before the 20th century. You know, in the 19th century, you hear all these stories about how like, Chicago and London and every developed city, every few years would have a citywide fire that would wipe out a tinderbox of all these buildings.

Right? Because every piece of our built environment was contributing to risk, right? Unregulated materials, unregulated stoves. And people didn't have an intuition for how flammability worked. And so, you were just, everything was a tinderbox and you would have catastrophic wipeouts every few years. And if we approached the built environment today, like our cybersecurity paradigm is today, I'd be saying, "Hey, before you go into this building, you need to put on your fire suit, your own oxygen tank, and carry an axe with you," which is no way to organize our modern society. But instead, today, every piece of a building contributes to its safety rather than its risk.

Like, every layer of paint has had a fire retardant coat and everything.

David Roberts

Right, right. And this is all just by boosting code so that all new buildings have a certain level of hardened infrastructure to them. And it more or less worked.

Harry Krejsa

More or less worked. But also, with that boosting of code, was also an intuition. Like, you know, "Oh, there's paper towels on the stove, I should move that." Or like there is, you know, the individual is not in charge of their own fire safety alone by themselves anymore. But there's still an intuition of safety that you can see when things feel off. And we are trying to โ€” the way through this is to cultivate both, you know, that pincer movement of top down and bottom up.

David Roberts

Right, top-down being the codes. Bottom-up meaning more of like a cultural sensitivity.

Harry Krejsa

Just exactly right.

David Roberts

Pay more attention, care more, keep an eye out. But that's like you're trying to cultivate a culture again among, potentially, hundreds of thousands of small vendors. So that almost seems more challenging than the codes.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And it's hundreds of thousands of, as you said, peaceniks, folks who have, you know, people coming from the climate and clean energy sort of pipeline.

David Roberts

Not security-minded people, maybe.

Harry Krejsa

Precisely. Right, and it is true in the other direction as well. When we were in the White House working on this issue, my glowering, risk-focused national security folks would look up from their keyboards and say, "Wait, you're doing what to my power grid?"

David Roberts

They'd sniff the air. "Is that patchouli somewhere?"

Harry Krejsa

Precisely. Whereas indeed, the climate policy folks whom I adored and had a great relationship with at the very beginning were like, "Wait a second, are you trying to throw a wet blanket on this? Are you coming in here with your military-industrial complex biases?" When in reality, their worlds have way more common cause than I think they necessarily appreciate.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, I should have maybe framed that a little bit better in the intro. Like the thrust of your piece, the whole thrust of this project, is to get the glowering security folks in the security blob and the hippies doing clean energy just to talk to each other and start cooperating and collaborating more, because they are, like, physically now part of the same concern. But culturally, I think you'll know better than anybody, still quite worlds apart.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And I think that this union will be especially important in the next few years, where we're going into a political environment where decarbonization is probably going to drop several rungs down the priority ladder, and national security and competition with China is going to move up it.

David Roberts

Well, I mean, you could argue, I would argue that even in the Biden administration, it was concerns about China that pushed climate legislation over the top. It's already, you know, that's โ€” those melding of concerns is already somewhat underway.

Harry Krejsa

That's right. And the ability of clean energy to kind of clear out that technical debt and make our grid more defensible and resilient is a huge national security asset and imperative. And you can talk about that without ever using the word carbon in a very compelling way.

David Roberts

Right, right. Well, let's talk then a little bit โ€” like, one of the points you make, which of course I love, because I love talking about grid architecture, is just that the architecture of a clean energy grid in and of itself is more cybersecure. So, talk about that just for a second. The sort of benefits of this kind of nested architecture.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. So, as your audience will know well, we are moving from this paradigm of a few centralized nodes of electricity generation pushing electricity out in one direction to distribution into various neighborhoods, to one that is dramatically more flexible and interconnected, where we have distributed generation โ€” electricity capable of moving up and down the same wires in both directions all the time. And that kind of architecture, if implemented thoughtfully and with security benefits in mind, can be a second pillar of national security benefit here because it's able to recover. And as our mutual friend Costa Samaras at the Scott Institute at Carnegie Mellon โ€”

David Roberts

Former Volts guest.

Harry Krejsa

Precisely, he refers to this as "a self-healing kind of system" where you can have, whether it's a hurricane or a hacker who takes down some portion of the grid, you can have smart inverters and grid-forming technologies and batteries say, "Whoa, I detect something bad happening there." And I can surge electricity of the right frequency to try and restabilize the grid, or failing that, I can quarantine off that portion that is being disrupted.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's the key bit. So, like electricity heads will remember, like in the massive blackouts of years past, it's often just like one squirrel eats through one transformer and the faults just cascade and there are no natural fire breaks, so they just cascade out of control through an entire region. And the idea here is that your clean energy grid, you know, people will remember this from several previous pods with Octopus Energy with Lorenzo Kristov. This idea of like at the neighborhood level, you have a microgrid, right, where everyone's communicating with one another within the microgrid, but that microgrid just has one single connection to the larger grid.

And then, that could be inside a city-sized microgrid, which could be inside a regional-sized microgrid. There's this nested quality. All of which means there's tons of fire breaks. So, you can isolate the fault relatively easily with that kind of architecture in place.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly. There was a squirrel in Ohio in 2003 that did almost as much damage to the Eastern seaboard as Vladimir Putin did to Ukraine in 2015. But that is like โ€”

David Roberts

But here we come to a question, which is: that architecture, well implemented, is safer, but like, do we see that being implemented that way? Do you know what I mean? What I see is an uncoordinated herd of just a chaos of people storming onto the grid, and the architecture not really keeping up.

Harry Krejsa

That's right. And I think that the answer is like, it's hard to know in many cases because we don't have the visibility that we need. And we can get that from uniting the tree huggers and the dragon slayers, both inside government and outside more effectively. In the critical infrastructure protection space, there are these public-private coordinating bodies, sectoral coordinating councils, where representatives from the various major private sector stakeholders for a given sector will gather, will interface with government, will receive threat intelligence about what they should do to protect themselves against new and emerging risks, and they will translate that and send recommended actions out to their private sector counterparts.

And those sectoral coordinating councils have been slow to modernize and reflect the clean energy space.

David Roberts

You mean the ones in electricity specifically?

Harry Krejsa

Yes, that's right. Yes. So, like last year, the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC), which serves this role for the electricity, the bulk power sector, admitted American Clean Power (ACP) as the representative for the clean energy space. But that took a long time. It took longer than it should have. And well after clean energy had a systemic level presence on our grid. But that was for two reasons from both directions. One was the kind of creaking institutions that came before; they were used to legacy energy actors that had been unchanging for decades, kind of not being prepared to integrate those new entrants.

But also, from the other direction, the new entrants not knowing how to organize themselves, not necessarily having the intuition for security and knowledge that they should be there. And we have work to do to ensure that the liability of that space, of the diffuse number of actors, can be an asset of dynamism and technological innovation. But it has to work from both ends.

David Roberts

Well, before we get to governance, which we are going to talk about in a sec, let's just talk for a minute about the tech itself. You have an interesting observation in here about the difference between IT and OT, between information technology and operational technology. Talk a little bit about what that distinction is and what is the significance of that distinction here.

Harry Krejsa

So, information technology is what you often think of when we talk about tech today, right? Like computers, Internet networks, those kinds of machines. Whereas operational technology, OT, is often used to describe a category of stuff that changes things in the real world. Pumps and switches and substations.

David Roberts

So, the former is sending information hither and thither, the latter is moving physical objects in the physical world.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly, yeah. The atoms and bits distinction, right? Yes. And for most of the existence of IT, it has been generally separate from OT. There's been relatively rare intersections of the two. And we're moving into the world where they are colliding. Even before the clean energy transition began, you know, we were slapping those dial-up modems on the sides of dams. And there's a business case that's irresistible for that kind of work to bring together IT and OT. Any infrastructure operator is going to have distant and remote substations or assets that are difficult, time-consuming, or dangerous to send someone to.

And so, if you're wanting to just every so often adjust some gauges and flip some switches and you don't want to send someone out there every single time, then it is irresistible to slap a dial-up modem to the side of that dam and have the ability to do that. But a lot of those dials, switches, and operational technologies were never designed with that kind of connection to the outside world in mind. Like the designers of those technologies, they assumed if you wanted to flip that switch, you were going to walk into that building. The guard would say, "Hey, David!"

And that is the paradigm that it was built for. And by slapping it onto the side of it, we are opening this door to the entire world. Being able to look in there and turn those knobs and flip those switches with no identity checks, no authentication, no firebreaks, unless you build it in intentionally on top of it. And that is just not the case in most of these places. A lot of utility operators have extremely narrow margins. Many of them do not have the kind of technical sophistication to know that this is a problem. And unless you take action to swap out those OT so that they have a layer of sophistication on top of it to be like, "Hey, is this who I expect to be coming in here and turning the knobs and flipping the switches?"

David Roberts

But why can't you build that sophistication into the modem that you slap onto the side of it? Like why do you have to rebuild the thing from the ground up?

Harry Krejsa

Well, you can, but that's a single point of failure. In IT right now, the big kind of trend is towards what's called "zero trust architecture" where you have to be authenticated every time you go to a new folder, a new place. And so, this is not to get into too much inside baseball, but the security paradigm for like government networks used to be organized around on-premises or on-prem security where as long as you passed one check, you could look at anything, go anywhere. And now we're moving toward like you are continuously authenticated. It is more like if you're working on collaborative Google Docs, right.

You have to be signed into Google, and the browser needs to know that that's you before you can open that link from someone else who only meant to share it with you and not everyone else who has the URL.

David Roberts

Right, right.

Harry Krejsa

And so, similarly, like you want that kind of digitally native layers of security. Which, to a human user, would hopefully look like nothing. It would be the easiest thing in the world if you're doing it right. But it is a sophisticated amount of engineering on the back end and in most cases, your old OT is not capable of that. And you could build everything you want to into that modem you slapped onto the side of it. But if it is a single point of failure, that's an intolerable amount of risk. And the rule of thumb we have for these, these state-based hackers is they have so many resources and so much patience to throw at this that they will eventually get in. Like the key is how many layers of defense and how resilient you are to recover.

David Roberts

And so, one of the points you make is that the OT involved in clean energy is sort of better suited to this sort of security.

Harry Krejsa

Correct.

David Roberts

Say a little word about that.

Harry Krejsa

Sure. So, there's kind of two dynamics there. One is a lot of clean energy was just designed from the ground up in the Internet era and so started with that as an assumed possibility. But the other part of it was that you need your clean energy technologies to be capable of much more sophisticated activity. And so, of course, you're going to design it with software-defined abilities to interact with each other. Right?

David Roberts

Right. Yeah. Like everything is going to be talking to everything else and talking to the grid. That's sort of like the tidal movement in clean energy. This is a big part of why clean energy proponents think clean energy is going to be able to do what dirty energy used to do. It's not going to have to replicate the brute force. It's going to, through digitization, be a lot smarter and then more efficient.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly. Your variable source generation, like solar and wind power, needs to be constantly considering, "Where do I send this power? Am I storing it? Am I transforming, transmitting it across space or time?" And your future energy parks that you discussed in an episode recently of on-prem generation and consumption is now introducing new multivariate interactions with the grid. Like all the things you want your clean energy technologies to be able to do require software-defined interactions with the real world. Like from the start on the tin.

David Roberts

Right. So, what you like here, what we would like to happen, is for these digital technologies to be built with top-level security built in such that every piece you add to the grid improves โ€” rather than making the grid more vulnerable โ€” it improves grid security.

Harry Krejsa

Exactly.

David Roberts

This is what we want in our future. But then, we come to the sort of million-dollar question here, which is governance. What standards and who is it that's making people do this? Because as you say in your section on governments, the first part of the section on governance is the governance of the US electricity system is an absolute jalopy, Rube Goldberg nightmare of overlapping jurisdictions. So, it's not even clear if you had a sort of US God emperor with great standards in his back pocket, how he would proliferate them to all the necessary actors here.

So, how do you get around that?

Harry Krejsa

Well, you know, federalism is a drag.

David Roberts

Although, we should just say here, in the coming four years, we might feel much more fondly towards federalism than we do right now.

Harry Krejsa

You're absolutely correct. And you know, man, I was just thinking about how great Greg Abbott is with all that clean energy in Texas.

David Roberts

I know. Go, Greg.

Harry Krejsa

Yep. The way I think that you start โ€” what's that line about how do you possibly start eating an elephant? One spoon at a time. Same case here where we need to approach this from a prioritization framework. Like, what can we get our arms around most easily? What's the most systemically important? What tools do we have? And so, one of the last things that I did in government in this kind of collaboration between the glowering natsec folks and the utopian climate folks, was identifying a list of linchpin technologies. Right. Like recognizing this is a huge undertaking.

What are the technologies that are the most critical to the near-term success of the transition and have the most sort of digital exposure that we should be ranking above the others and thinking about their systemic importance relative to one another? And to that end, if you're thinking about solar panels, they are relatively dumb machines. Yes, they're the workhorse of the clean energy transition. And yes, they have some semiconductors in them and most of them are made in China, but they're pretty dumb. They aggregate up into inverters and substations.

David Roberts

That's where the intelligence is. Right?

Harry Krejsa

Persistent inverter, indeed. Yes. And so, I'm not too terribly worried in the immediate term about the risk from a solar panel. On the opposite end of that spectrum are your virtual power plant software and similar tools that are entirely software-defined. They can move megawatts or even gigawatts of electricity around and concentrate a lot of that risk in a single, systemically important place. And so, that's one of the very first things we should probably prioritize.

David Roberts

What would that translate to? Prioritizing smart inverters? That just means getting some minimal security standards in place, and that would affect the inverter manufacturing industry. Like, what does it mean to prioritize inverters?

Harry Krejsa

It means figuring out, like, what are the sources of risk here? What does the software, like โ€” who makes inverters? What does the software and hardware supply chain for inverters look like? Do adequate existing standards cover the software supply chain for inverters? If not, how do we make sure that we update standards to that end? The tricky part there is that the clean energy transition is happening faster than most of the standards-making process.

David Roberts

Yes, I mean, I run into this problem a lot โ€”

Harry Krejsa

Indeed.

David Roberts

on Volts, which is like the tech is racing out ahead. People are doing this already. And the standards-making bodies comparatively are like Ents in Lord of the Rings, just sort of lumbering along slowly behind.

Harry Krejsa

That's right. The thing we learned at the White House. Any honest, you know, alumni of a White House policy council will tell you that the formal powers that the White House has, legally, are actually pretty narrow. It is mainly through other agencies and stuff like that that you work. But one of the things that we can do very well is host parties and hosting parties where you bring together this very diffuse ecosystem and say, "Look, I, Mr. Government, don't know what the right standard looks like for the cybersecurity of a smart inverter, but everyone here has a piece of what that answer is.

So, let's put our cards on the table and figure it out." Then, everyone goes home and has learned a lot more that day about how to think about this. Even if it takes another, you know, 18 months for a formal standard to roll out, you have done a lot of the work. This is the reality for lots of standards; often by the time it is published, most of the industry has already coalesced around what it looks like.

David Roberts

That's interesting. In this distinction between kind of dumb physical technology like a solar panel and a smart digital technology like an inverter that you need to worry about, I'm sort of curious where EVs come on that scale because they kind of fit both. Like, you can have a car that's not digital at all. Like, we've had them for many years. But on the other hand, like EVs are like rolling smartphones. And it seems to me โ€” like I don't want to give China any ideas or whatever โ€” but like in terms of threat vectors, EV chargers and EVs are like, you know, you stick a bug in an EV and then it carries it to a new charger.

They're like deliberately bug-spreading devices. So, how do you think about EVs in the context of this security?

Harry Krejsa

So, the good news and bad news. The bad news is your intuition is exactly correct. But the good news is that the technologies that make that so in an EV are also found in lots of other parts of our electricity ecosystem. And so, if we are able to make progress on vendor trustworthiness for battery development or the standards for safe bidirectional electricity flow as controlled by software, then we're making progress in all those directions.

David Roberts

So, the EV interface with the grid is not unique. If you just solve that sort of interface problem, you're solving that problem too. Or at least somewhat solving, getting at it.

Harry Krejsa

Somewhat solving. You'd also get at it from the direction of like virtual power plants and how they interface with the grid, because virtual power plants are probably going to tap a lot of EVs as they unfold. Also, like, there's been a lot of news lately about Chinese EVs and BYD kind of taking the world by storm.

David Roberts

Indeed.

Harry Krejsa

And that's the reason why the recent import controls and limitations on BYD cars coming into the United States primarily focused on the software component of it. Right. It was the fact that it is Chinese-made software on those cars that was one of the key distinctions.

David Roberts

I mean, even if we put standards in place and say you can't sell an EV in America unless it meets these standards, you still have an enormous enforcement problem, don't you? Right. Because you're going to have millions upon millions of Chinese EVs coming in, any one of which could โ€” you know, like, how do you enforce that? It's hard enough to enforce it on domestic manufacturers. How do you enforce that when it comes to imports?

Harry Krejsa

Right. And while you also saw, a lot of folks in my part of this ecosystem noticed the Israeli pager operation against Hezbollah with great interest.

David Roberts

Creepy. Didn't get the attention it deserved. Super creepy.

Harry Krejsa

I completely agree. And it is a great demonstration of how easy it can be to hide nefarious intent in a supply chain network. Right. And so, how do you get confidence in the provenance of these kinds of technologies and imports?

David Roberts

These are some pretty long supply chains too.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely.

David Roberts

A lot of nodes in that supply chain to worry about.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And there are different ways that you could approach this. One is the way Apple does it where yes, your iPhone is probably almost entirely made in China. We trust it with the most intimate parts of our lives, but we have trust there because Apple is deeply vertically integrated. They have a great understanding of the hardware bill of materials and they have total control over every byte of software that is on that phone.

David Roberts

I mean, in terms of like knowledge and control over supply chains, Apple is sort of like an inn of one, is it not? You can't expect other companies to โ€”

Harry Krejsa

Precisely. And so, the way that you can get at it if you are merely one actor of many in this marketplace is things like the various national labs have done teardowns of EV charging equipment and EVs themselves to kind of look for that kind of stuff. But that's difficult to scale, particularly if you want to do that before you order 100,000 widgets. And in fact, this is actually something I'm optimistic we can make some progress on in the short term. A lot of standard contracting language in both the public and private sectors for these kinds of imports have what are called anti-reverse engineering provisions where you are not allowed to get a widget and tear it down and inspect it before ordering.

And so, a lot of my former colleagues in government are working to put together new model acquisition and contracting language for government purchases where we can tear down the widget before we order 5 million pieces of it and do those kinds of inspections because it is the kind of close physical access to advanced technology where you could prod and poke and plug in and see how it reacts to different kinds of environments where you can get that kind of confidence. And so, this is one of those things where tweaking some contracting language could make a big difference.

David Roberts

Interesting. And here's a somewhat cynical question which came up online and which I think is very apt. We get sort of naturally outraged when we talk about privacy violations done by China. Ooh, scary China. But of course, in the average American's life, the people who are invasively taking their data and using it for nefarious purposes are entirely domestic. You know what I mean? Like these are, this is what the big tech companies want to do. And part of me sort of thinks that putting standards in place that would truly protect consumers against, you know, ill-willed foreign hackers would also preclude domestic actors from doing a lot of the data mining and shady crap that they want to do.

And so, there might be some pushback from domestic actors against safety standards and privacy standards with real teeth. Am I off base in thinking that?

Harry Krejsa

I think that is true in some particular circumstances, like around right to repair laws and being able to get in and fiddle with things. But I think in most spaces, and particularly those around which I'm trying to bring together, the tree huggers and the dragon slayers, Meta is not trying to collect ads on you in a way that would blow up your car.

David Roberts

Well, not yet. I mean.

Harry Krejsa

Right.

David Roberts

It's the trajectory of these guys. I don't know.

Harry Krejsa

But these are, I think, two categories of concerns with Chinese activities of collecting information on you and pre-positioning access in places and in ways that could only be used in a way to harm civilian Americans.

David Roberts

Right, but can you really in practice cleanly distinguish between those and leave Meta all its data mining capabilities while blocking all of China's ability to do something nefarious? Like can you really make that distinction in practice?

Harry Krejsa

I think that in most cases, when we're talking about public safety, yes, we can. I think when it gets fuzzier into how the information that China is collecting on Americans so that they can socially engineer them, so that they can phish them more effectively.

David Roberts

"Propagandize them on TikTok," apparently, is the big problem.

Harry Krejsa

Indeed, yes, that's where things can get fuzzier. But when it comes to the safe functioning of our infrastructure and the delivery of essential services, you can separate the two pretty cleanly.

David Roberts

I don't know. I would just put on record that, like a lot of shady security stuff, you know, sort of approaching it through the lens of China fear, I feel like it distorts it a little bit since we are constantly subject to privacy and security violations all the time by actors who are multinational at best and have only a light allegiance to domestic policy and domestic actors. So, but anyway, one other thing I wanted to hit on with you before we run out of time, which I was just delighted to find. So, you finish your report with these sort of recommendations for, you know, "lines of effort," you call them, going forward, most of which are around trying to sort of get the security people and the clean energy people to talk to one another and work together.

But one of the things you say here, which I agree with entirely and have not yet encountered in the actual buttoned-up, suit-wearing halls of D.C. and think tanks, is this. I'm going to read the quote from the report. "The possibility of electricity generation so clean, cheap, and abundant as to test the bounds of energy scarcity is increasingly linked to the concept of artificial superintelligence and arguably possesses a scientifically clearer pathway to near-term deployment. The US Government should invest a similar urgency in understanding the potential of this abundance agenda as it is in artificial intelligence and in assessing whether or not it should be racing to realize it before Beijing."

So, just to restate that, you're saying the prospect of energy that is clean and super abundant, the end of energy scarcity, which has characterized our species' development from the very beginning, right? It's been an absolute feature of life on Earth up until the present. The end of energy scarcity is a real possibility here. And as you say, arguably there's a clearer path from here to energy abundance than there is from here to AI superintelligence. And yet, AI gets all this hype, all these billions of dollars, all this like carpet bombing AI on everything now. Whereas the prospect of energy abundance, which to me is like massively more promising for the welfare of humanity, is also sort of within sight.

And yet, you never hear anybody talk about it. We don't โ€” there's no formal government recognition of it. We talk about competing with China, but we never discuss it in that vein. So, a) thank you for just like bringing this possibility into this world, but like, b) talk about that a little bit more. How do you see that fitting into this larger security framework?

Harry Krejsa

Yeah, absolutely. And indeed, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Like, this is a clear โ€”

David Roberts

Me too, man.

Harry Krejsa

It is a clear potential that is absolutely, like a little speculative, but not that speculative. Right?

David Roberts

Less speculative every day.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And I think that part of the issue is among my colleagues, that prospect of the potential end of energy scarcity and resource abundance is talked about today in a way that I recall people talking about AI in policy spaces, like, five years ago, where it was like, "This seems like it could be a big deal. I don't want to sound like a crackpot." But, like, the tech is really โ€”

David Roberts

Rendering crackpots of all of us, right?

Harry Krejsa

Indeed, right. So, I indeed wanted to intentionally make sure this was included there because, you know, as you described, my title being a little overheated at the top, I am intentionally doing that to try and make sure that some of these arguments kind of extend out of our circles of climate and clean energy tracking wonks. Right. These are ideas and arguments that are useful in different circles in different ways. And the abundance piece of it is, I think, under-discussed in our climate and clean energy circle, but way under-discussed outside of that.

David Roberts

I mean, I can't imagine anything that would have a more profound effect on national security than energy abundance and global geopolitics. It's like everything these security people think about all day is just going to be profoundly affected by energy abundance if it happens. And yet, as you say, I never see it come up. Is it just fear of, like, fear of looking like a crackpot? Like, is that still just, like, what's holding people back?

Harry Krejsa

I think that's part of it. I also think that, you know, Brian Thompson or Ezra Klein might have tweeted something like this. So, I don't want to steal their valor here, but I think there was a line about how we have had a sort of scarcity mindset in our economic policy debate for a while now. Our arguments around energy usage have been focused on efficiency because of pollution concerns. The troubles that we've had with wealth distribution and the unequal gains of internationalism, trade, and automation over the last couple of decades have, I think, given Americans an intuition of scarcity, like a zero-sum world.

David Roberts

Yes, and I'll just say, because you probably won't, but I will like every bit of conservative or reactionary politics anywhere you find it: if you pull the string, you find scarcity at the root of it. Like scarcity and fear of not getting enough. Right. The sort of zero-sum mindset, "There's only a set amount, there's more of us than there is of it. All of life is a competition for that resource." Like that is the root of conservative politics. Which is why I've always wanted the Democrats to adopt the slogan, "We can have nice things."

Harry Krejsa

Yes, and I think the good news there is, I feel like we're starting to โ€” the ship, the aircraft carrier of public discourse, I think is starting to move in that direction. And it would have indeed profound impacts on climate, on human flourishing. But also, if you need a hawkish argument, you know, to push forward this agenda, it also would have profound import for our national security.

David Roberts

I mean, among other things, if every nation had a domestic supply of energy sufficient for its needs, just the motivation for a lot of fuckery would disappear. You know what I mean? Like, the reason people go out and do corporate espionage and all that stuff, a lot of reasons for doing that would vanish. Like, why bother?

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And it's part of why I am actually optimistic about the sprint to artificial intelligence having positive spillover effects there. Because I think that it will bring with it a lot of demand for more energy infrastructure. Right. Like Ben Thompson of Stratechery likes to make the analogy to the 90s era build out of fiber optic cables around the country where there was a big over-construction of fiber optics that ended up not making a ton of economic sense when the fervor over web 1.0 kind of died down. But if we're in a situation where the initial kind of sprint towards AI in this near term ends up resulting in a ton of energy parks of giant solar and storage or SMRs โ€”

David Roberts

It's forcing the issue on all sorts of things that clean energy people have been after for a long time.

Harry Krejsa

Absolutely. And I think with the cloak of national security import atop of it, it will be a great supporting argument, especially over these next few years. And I think in our entire conversation here today, with all this enthusiasm around clean energy's potential, I'd point out we've probably used the word carbon fewer times than maybe any other guest on Volts.

David Roberts

Right. So, the idea here is sort of the overarching idea you're getting at with this paper and your whole sort of like this whole push is just clean energy and security people have common interests and need to work together. And furthermore, deploying clean digital technologies on the grid can improve US national security. So, you should, no matter how deep your glower, how deep your cynicism, and how deep your contempt for hippies: if you want a more secure grid, you should want more clean digital technology on it. That's sort of the take-home.

Harry Krejsa

That's correct. And no matter how skeptical you are of the motivation behind American foreign policy, or whether we have a military industrial complex at the core making decisions or not, there are security imperatives for clean energy that you can use in conversation with people who are more concerned about those security imperatives and persuasively make that case.

David Roberts

Well, let's conclude with that then. Just say a little word like, obviously, decarbonization, as you say, is going to take a bit of a backseat in the coming years. And that doesn't just look like the US either, like not to doom scroll a little bit, but it looks like momentum is flagging all over. Do you think there is โ€” you know, like if I'm a grizzled, glowering Republican security hand of decades and the hippies come to me and they say, "Oh well, guess what? We discovered we're actually secure too. We're actually helping you be more secure too."

Obviously, my eyebrow is cocked, right? Obviously, I'm skeptical. Do you think that this style of argument, this argumentative sort of space you've opened up here, has enough purchase to get some bipartisan consensus in the coming years? Like, are there enough people on both sides of this divide that get it, that you can see an actual germ of cooperation starting in coming years?

Harry Krejsa

I think that it would be an important part of the equation, a part of the recipe that helps make it so. You know, very unfortunately, energy has become, you know, another battlefield of culture wars. Right. And cleantech has been coded as liberal and people negatively polarize against it. And anything we can do to attenuate that reality, I think is going to be very important and helpful. And the incoming Secretary of Energy, Mr. Wright, he was an investor in advanced geothermal. There are ways to come at this in a different direction, to talk about some different ways.

David Roberts

Yeah, it does seem like he's reachable with reason. I don't know if you've had any direct dealings with him, but it seems like he is the kind of person who might bite on this argument.

Harry Krejsa

Indeed. And I think that Doug Burgum could be, too. With Mr. Burgum postured to chair this new policy council in the White House, he had a similar kind of investment in energy dominance. Precisely. And the intersection here that I am also cautiously optimistic about is the role of big tech or hyperscalers.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's really the X factor in a lot of things going on right now.

Harry Krejsa

Indeed, yes. And, you know, big tech occupies this rare point in our economy of folks who understand energy economics, understand technical risk, and how much Xi Jinping is trying to hack into their systems all day, every day, and are filled with a workforce who wants to be able to say that their work is powering clean energy and making the world a better place.

David Roberts

And crucially, they have giant sacks of money.

Harry Krejsa

Correct.

David Roberts

They're too big to code liberal. They're too big to โ€” I've got to come up with some sort of slogan there, but, like, they have too much money to be dismissed as hippies.

Harry Krejsa

"Right, exactly. And the coding of liberal is attenuating pretty quickly, right?"

David Roberts

And for good reason.

Harry Krejsa

Yes, you know, Sam Altman, announcing the big build-out at the White House, right, with Donald Trump.

David Roberts

Oh, my God, Sam Altman sort of trailing along after all the other tech guys, being like, "Wait, wait up, guys. I like Trump too. Guys, wait up." It's just the most โ€” all right, I won't go off on this. It's just the most pathetic thing in the entire universe.

Harry Krejsa

But, yeah, all the big CEOs, you know, were at the inauguration. They're trying very hard to be nonpartisan and to code as less democratic. Right. And so that is a valuable factor there where if it looks like the Trump administration is embracing the sprint to artificial intelligence, it looks like they're embracing energy economics, energy dominance, or whatever we want to call it. There's a โ€” to make a Dune reference here โ€” a golden path that unites these things that could push all of this forward.

David Roberts

Right. Clean energy is our digital firewall against China, basically, like, this is the sales pitch. Well, Harry Krejsa, it's been a delight and a pleasure. This is really interesting. This is something I think we'll have to return to in coming years, but I think it is a very helpful intervention to arm the dirty hippies in Volts' listenership with this argument that clean energy is security, is cybersecurity, is conducive to cybersecurity. I think it is a good intervention and very well timed. So thank you for coming on.

Harry Krejsa

Thank you for having me as the most granola-crunching listener in the Pentagon of your podcast. It was an honor to be here.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Mailbag episode - Jan. 2025

In this mailbag episode, I tackle listener questions with Lisa Hymas, starting with Trumpโ€™s Greenland fixation and whether his authoritarianism signals "climate fascism." We then dig into whether we can fix utilities without public ownership. I geek out about teaching a college course on liberal democracyโ€™s existential stakes, mourn journalismโ€™s collapsโ€ฆ

Read more

Chris Hayes on the attention economy

Chris Hayes โ€” author, MSNBC host, and previous guest on Volts โ€” is just out with a new book, The Sirens Call, about the corrosive effects of the modern attention economy. In this episode, he and I dive deep into attention: what it is, when it became commodified, why it is so easy to steal, where industry is looking for new supplies, and how the harried and distracted can defend themselves from the onslaught.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Okay! Hello, everyone. This is Volts for January 29, 2025 โ€” which I'm still getting used to saying โ€” "Chris Hayes on the attention economy." I'm your host, David Roberts. There is little that is more personal to each of us than our attention. Our lives are composed on a moment-to-moment basis by what we choose to pay attention to. What draws our attention creates our world in a very real way.

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But, attention has also become a commodity. And not just any commodity, but the central commodity of the modern economy. The attention economy has eaten the real economy, and now all of us, from the biggest brands to the most obscure social media posters, are in a war of all against all: everywhere you look, all the time, everyone wants your attention. That makes it pretty tough to use it wisely.

Chris Hayes
Chris Hayes

That, anyway, is the basic thesis of The Sirensโ€™ Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource, a new book by longtime MSNBC host and author Chris Hayes, who needs no introduction here.

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I've known Chris a long time, I've been on his podcast and he's been on Volts before. I'm keenly interested in this subject of commodified attention, and this new book of his really got my brain revving, so I am super excited to talk to him all about it. (Seattleites: Side note, if you can't get enough of Chris here, catch him live at Seattle's Town Hall next week, on February 4th.)

With no further ado, Chris Hayes, welcome back to Volts.

Chris Hayes

It's great to be back, Dave.

David Roberts

Great book, man. Cool โ€” good book. Well done.

Thank you. I appreciate that. I appreciate your loss for words. I think that's good. I'll take that as a good review.

I feel like modern life โ€” whatever you call modern life, the puzzle of modern life โ€” you've grabbed a big chunk of it here, I think, so I'm excited to get into this. But I want to start at the most focused, specific level. Let's just talk for a minute about attention itself before we back out into the social and political stuff. You talk about three kinds of attention. Let's just start there. Let's just start with a topology or a typology of what we mean by attention.

Chris Hayes

Yeah. So, I think the most intuitive thing we mean by attention, and William James wrote about this, you know, in the 19th century, is just where we flash the spotlight of thought is, you know, if you want to use a metaphor. Right. So, it's a focusing mechanism. You know, where there's a spotlight on a stage, there could be a chorus on the stage, but if the lead of the musical starts to belt out a big number, and the spotlight goes on that lead, you know, that's where you focus your attention. And we can do that with our own thoughts.

You know, you can be in a room right now as I'm talking to you โ€” and this is actually a useful exercise at any moment โ€” there are so many things I could be paying attention to in this room. There are so many places that I could put my attention, but I'm focusing them on you. And that's an exercise of my will and my conscious thought.

David Roberts

Right. Volitional. On purpose.

Chris Hayes

Volitional and on purpose. It's voluntary in the sense that I'm choosing to do it. So, that's the main thing we tend to think of in attention. Right. Like, "Where do I put my thought? Where do I put my focus?" Then, there's this other component to it that is really important to grasp, which is involuntary attention. And because attention is a faculty that evolved for very clear evolutionary reasons. Right, I mean, if you are, you know, around the campfire and you're listening to a story of the hunt, and then a big predator comes through the bushes, and you hear the twig snapping, right, there's some aspect of attention that has to be essentially compelled or involuntary.

Right. Where some part of your consciousness snaps to that sound of the predator in the bushes. And we experience this all the time when a siren wails down the street, when an infant cries on a flight, if someone's being disorderly in a public space or on a subway car. Like, it's not that you volitionally choose to put the spotlight on them, it's that your attention snaps to them before you get a conscious say.

David Roberts

Right. You can't help it.

Chris Hayes

You can't help it. And it happens before you even get to consider it.

David Roberts

Right. And I don't know if this is the best way to describe the division, but it's sort of. I think of voluntary attention as more of a kind of a frontal cortex, higher thought type of thing. Whereas, the involuntary attention tickles your lizard brain. Right. Which is deeper and more fundamental. And therefore, when activated, trumps the higher thought. Right. That's sort of how the brain works.

Chris Hayes

Absolutely. And most people, I think, have had the experience of, say, coming upon deer in a meadow or in the forest. And, you know, they're doing their thing and then they hear something and their heads snap up. Right. That moment of involuntary attention for them, because it's an animal. You know, animals have it, too. They don't have the other one. I don't think the deer could be like, "What am I doing with my life?" Or, "I really want to listen to you on a first date." So, yeah. So those are sort of two sides of the coin.

And then the third, which I don't think kind of maps onto the psychology literature, but I think is as important, is what I call "social attention." The short way to think of that is when we are paying attention to other people and when other people are paying attention to us. It has, I think, a kind of difference in kind, a specific set of psychological and philosophical implications that are distinct from paying attention to other things.

David Roberts

Right. And you can almost think of this as a kind of subcategory of involuntary attention. It's so deeply rooted that it's very difficult โ€” like you in the book, you talk about being at a cocktail party chattering, and you sort of naturally screen out other conversations, just sort of automatically. But if in one of those other conversations someone says, "Chris Hayes said, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah." Like, that will reach your lizard brain from across the room, and you'll immediately be like "Huh?!"

Chris Hayes

And this isn't just a thought experiment. This is actually an experimental finding that your own name will penetrate and wrench your attention away. And that's because social attention has this specific force and all these implications for kind of who we are and what we are that are wired deep in us.

David Roberts

Right, I want to come back to social attention in a minute, but what falls out of this typology, I think, is one of the most important insights in the book. One of many things which, once you hear it, you're like, "Oh, yeah, that's obvious." But like, a lot falls out of it, which is simply this: It is easier to grab someone's attention than it is to hold their attention. Involuntary attention has a power and an immediacy that you cannot replicate with voluntary attention. So, it's just easier to get attention than it is to hold it. So, talk about everything that is implied by that, because sort of like almost like all the rest of your book falls out of that.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, and I think to illustrate that point, you could go to any single person and say, "I'm going to have you walk in this room. There's 500 people in there. I just need you to get everyone's attention." And basically, everyone could do that. I mean, if you walked in and you screamed, or you got up in front of the room, you start taking your clothes off, I mean, if you had any means available. But if I said, "Look, there's 500 people in there. I want you to go on the stage and hold them spellbound for an hour."

What the hell would you do? Right? So, what falls out of that is because compelling attention and grabbing it is easier than holding it, the more ferociously competitive a market for attention gets, the more iterative you sort of unleash attention capitalism on people where you're competing second by second. The more you will drive towards the lizard brain, the brain stem, the compelled attention, almost as a kind of unavoidable aspect of the incentives. So, what you're going to drive towards is grab, grab, grab, grab, grab, grab, grab.

David Roberts

Yeah, and this is, to me, this is just an inevitable result if you want attention, if attention is what's valuable to you, if attention is literally money to you. You know, like everyone who creates content on the Internet is very aware of just how difficult it is to hold people's attention. Everyone who's, you know, like, you've seen metrics. You're, I'm sure, intensely familiar with metrics.

Chris Hayes

Yep.

David Roberts

You know, and anybody who's ever written a headline versus a story, right? Like, the headline is meant to grab attention. The story is meant to hold it. And we know from every metric, from the history of the Internet, it's real easy to grab people's attention, but they start falling off almost immediately.

So, what you call this grab, grab, grab, grab, grab model is the slot machine model. So, say a little bit about that and why it's so powerfully effective.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, I mean, this part of the book is taken from a great academic named Natasha Dow Schรผll, who wrote this amazing book called "Addiction by Design," which is about how machine gambling works in Vegas and slot machines. It's about the kind of attentional trance that the games produce in people. And part of the point that she makes about these games โ€” which have basically taken over more and more casino floors because they're the most profitable thing on a casino floor.

David Roberts

God, that is so depressing.

Chris Hayes

To illustrate the point, right, is that they create this kind of attentional trance where, you know, she'll talk to people that have really intense compulsions, you know, addictions to these games. And they're like, "I'm not playing to win. I know I'm losing money. It's the experience of the trance that I'm after."

David Roberts

Right.

Chris Hayes

And so, what we have, and I don't think it's an accident, is that the vertical sort of scroll, the flick of the thumb, is essentially the same visual element of the casino slot machines. We're all just playing dopamine slot machines on our phones all day with our thumb.

David Roberts

Yep. And we know from the psychology, science that getting irregular rewards, like sometimes you get a hit, sometimes you don't, is more addictive than it would be if you reliably got a reward.

Chris Hayes

Exactly.

David Roberts

The sort of element of chance just keeps coming back. Yeah. So, like a slot machine, it just grabs your attention and holds your attention just long enough to see the flowers rotate and stop, and it grabs it again and grabs it again and grabs it again. There's a little squirt of dopamine each time that happens. But, when you put these facts together, just what we've laid out so far, there's voluntary attention, involuntary attention, and a particularly powerful kind of involuntary attention called social attention that is now valuable. We're going to return to why it's so valuable in a minute.

But that means, if you're in a marketplace that wants your attention, the best way for someone who wants your attention to get it is to grab it over and over again, to shout over and over again.

Chris Hayes

Particularly, the best way to get it at scale, I think, it's useful to think about the way food and hunger work for this. Because, you know, we have biological inheritances in our appetites, right? Like, we're drawn to sugar because it's very calorically packed. We're drawn to fat. Like when the Bible conjures a land of plenty, it's milk (fat) and honey (sugar), right? So, if you want to sell food at scale, right, not like a 30 seat restaurant, but like to billions of people, you drive towards what, burgers, fries, Coca Cola, right? All that processed stuff that is lighting up our biological inheritance and you can sell it anywhere in the world.

Now, that doesn't mean that's all people want to eat, and it doesn't mean you can't make a profit selling other stuff. In fact, the amazing thing about humans is they'll eat anything. It's just incredible, you know, like from bugs to caviar to all sorts of plants that you wouldn't think to flowers and salads. I mean, there's a million things people eat, right? But you've got these side by side. You've got the kind of food as culture and identity and bonding and cuisine, and you've got food as, you know, industrial scale, like demand. And we've got a very similar thing happening with our attention.

And that industrial-scale demand is going to drive towards that kind of compelled, lowest common denominator.

David Roberts

I want to set up this framework because I want to return to it later because โ€” and I think the food analogy is good and it works โ€” in that you say, just take me as an example, in this minute, I want a sugary snack, right? Because a sugary snack squirts this dopamine. It feels good, tastes good. So that's one sense in which I want something. But I also, in another sense, want to be healthy and to lose some weight. So which of those do I want? Which is my real want? And what I think we're seeing is a massive capitalist competition for my food dollar, right?

You're going to appeal again and again to my lizard brain's immediate-instinct want. And what happens in capitalism, and I want to come back to this later too, is we start seeing anything that might serve that second kind of want, that longer-term want. Like, if you want that longer-term thing, by definition, you have to gatekeep the short-term thing, right? Some force, someone, some mechanism, some institution, some practice has to gatekeep what comes in front of you if you want that longer-term health. So what does that, what do we trust to gatekeep our food?

And capitalism sort of inherently distrusts and is kind of corrosive to any kind of gatekeeping that serves that second, longer-term desire. And that's what you see in attention too, is just like the cheapest, easiest, most short-term version of it just getting shoveled at us. And we mistrust gatekeepers. Anyone who gatekeeps, you know, that information, decides what we should see and what we shouldn't, is just getting eaten away by, I guess, capitalism. I don't even know if that's the right word for it.

Chris Hayes

And this tension between the different parts of ourselves, the self that wants the snack, and the self that wants to eat healthily. I mean, the title of the book, like the animating first image, is Odysseus bound to the mast, resisting the sirens' call. Where there are two selves, there's the prior self of Odysseus, who wants to make it home to his family, and under the advice of Circe, binds himself to the mast so that he won't fall prey to the allure of the sirens. And then there's the self in the moment of Odysseus, who wants to go towards the sirens, is desperately begging his men to steer towards them.

And the commitment device there, the gatekeeping that works there, is that he binds himself to the mast. But it's because he's at war with different versions of himself in time and different aspects of his self. And that war that we're just constantly โ€” we've been living that war in our bodies for a long time, if you know, the amount of food advice and obesity and exercise. But we're now living that war in our minds second to second.

David Roberts

Yes, it's intentional now. And one thing that's worth pointing out is, even though binding yourself to the mast looks like I'm disciplining myself, right, this is a solo thing. Even that depends, in some sense, on other people.

Chris Hayes

Yes.

David Roberts

Not untying you when you tell them to. Right. So, it's social. Any gatekeeping, any form of lashing yourself to the mast to resist these short-term pressures, is social and requires some social trust of someone. And I just want to, I want to make the point that I didn't, I didn't feel like you hit it hard enough in your book. It just could be because I'm angsty about it. But I just want to say that one of the reasons we're talking about all this is that developing any skill or expertise requires sustained voluntary attention. That is sort of the nature of it.

That's what practice is. So, you know, people talk about losing the ability for sustained voluntary attention like, "Oh, I can't even read a book anymore." But like, it's a bigger deal than that. Like everything humans are good at or can do or that is worthwhile in human society requires sustained voluntary attention.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, that's a great point in terms of the implications. And I think, you know, you're seeing that manifest in the world. You're particularly seeing this โ€” I don't want to take us off on a tangent โ€” but I think you're seeing it in, there's some evidence that there's some gender differences, you know, whether the source of that is something biological โ€” I'm skeptical of โ€” and more likely the sort of way that, you know, boys and girls are acculturated and you know, you're seeing this in higher education pursuits, like all kinds of things that, you know, require this sort of sustained voluntary attention, you know, that boys are doing worse at.

And I think there's a connection between those.

David Roberts

So you think at least in current society, for whatever reason, women are acculturated, are better able to offer their sustained voluntary attention?

Chris Hayes

Yes, 100%. Yeah, I think that's pretty clear. I mean, I think it's actually a huge source of a lot of what's going on in the sort of increasing gender divide.

David Roberts

That's interesting. I wanted to talk briefly a little bit, just focus on social attention, because I think social attention, much like attention generally, much like food, much like the rest of the analogy. There are kind of junk food forms of it and sustaining forms of it. And one of the things you talk about is that, you know, the quest by these platforms, by these tech companies to get our attention. You know, obviously, anyone who wants to sell us anything wants our attention. Anyone who wants to teach us anything. Anyway, people have always wanted our attention.

But what you have now is the ability to personalize that outreach to attention. This is what the algorithms are. This is the sort of effect of you giving all your information to the Gods of Online; they know you now and can customize their bids for your attention in a way that triggers this social attention. But you talk a good bit about how to be online is just to be subject to social attention and to give social attention. It's kind of what online is now.

Chris Hayes

That's what online is.

David Roberts

But what you're getting is not the sustaining kind. So, you have this phrase, "We're stuffed but starved." Like, stuffed with attention, but starved for what we really want, which is recognition. So, explain that difference just a little bit.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, and first, I should give a shout out to Raj Patel, who's the author, who wrote a book called "Stuffed and Starved." Again, about the weird perversity of the global food system. That stuffed and starved is: yes, we're getting more attention than we've ever gotten. I mean, up until very recently, the experience of social attention from strangers was something that a tiny fraction of anyone at a given time could ever get. I mean, movie stars, politicians, you know, people that achieve some kind of fame. Most people were not being subject to social attention of strangers.

I mean, let me also say, women, particularly walking through public space, you know, female bodies of all ages, unfortunately, are being subjected to social attention. The gaze from strangers has been happening forever. So that's, and that is distinct. And obviously, half the population experiences that. But I mean, the specific thing of, like, strangers saying, like, "Your idea is stupid."

David Roberts

Yeah, and you'll be old enough to remember that, like, back in the day, there were local newspapers, and occasionally the local newspaper would be like, "Rando at this random church, like, won a TV in a giveaway." You know what I mean? And it would be such a thrill.

Chris Hayes

Yes.

David Roberts

For that person to be like, "My God, I'm in the paper. I'm in the newspaper." You know, it's just like the divide was so fundamental, was so distant.

Chris Hayes

I'm thinking of this scene in The Jerk when Steve Martin's like, "The new phone book is here. The new phone book is here. Everyone's going to know my name." You know, until recently, this was a very, very, very tiny fraction of people who were experiencing this, particularly in the way we're experiencing now. Now it's totally democratized. I mean, social attention from strangers is basically the traffic of the Internet. And the point I'm making is that the thing that's so fascinating about attention as a force is that it's both very powerful and also mere. It's sort of always necessary and never sufficient.

You need social attention for all the things you actually want out of human relationships, like love, caring, support, and friendship.

David Roberts

And as you point out, like, as a human, the human species uniquely needs it to survive. When we're born, we are born helpless.

Chris Hayes

Yes, and so you need it literally from the moment you come screaming into the world, but it's also not enough. And so what you get in this stuffed and starved dynamic is you're getting a lot of attention, but what you really want is something deeper, which, you know, I say is basically recognition. You know, the philosopher Alexandre Kojรจve says that what human desire fundamentally is, at its core, is the desire for recognition, to be seen as human by another human. The Internet doesn't really give you that, but it gives you this kind of close approximation, this facsimile, that makes you feel like you're close to getting recognized and keeps you kind of going for more and more of it, but always coming away, not sated.

David Roberts

You talk about this, I think it was Hegel, the sort of master-slave relationship. Like, the master can get attention from the slave, but it's not sustaining for him. Because what you really want is recognition from someone you acknowledge as a human being yourself, from a full other human being who you recognize as a human being. And sort of almost definitionally, the people you encounter online are not that. They're simulacra. They're performances. Right. They're literally images. They're avatars.

Chris Hayes

Yes.

David Roberts

So, almost by definition, you cannot get what you want and need from those people. And yet, like you say, you can't stop trying.

Chris Hayes

Right. That's exactly right. Because you can't fully actually recognize them as human.

David Roberts

Right. It's funny, you talk about the sort of disorienting effects of fame, of getting this social attention, which, as you say, used to be so rare that the people subject to it weren't even really allowed to talk about it because no one cared. You know, because it was โ€” it would be like a God on Olympus complaining about... You know, like no one cared.

But it became more and more common. It became more and more of a kind of a standard subject of like the disorienting effects of having all these people pay attention to you. And now you say this is available to more and more and more. Like it's going lower and lower. Like you are at a certain level, you know, you're like on TV, so you're recognized to some extent. But, you know, I've even tasted a tiny little shade of it. And it is wild how thoroughly and rapidly it fucks with your brain. I don't think people appreciate...

And you and I have seen in the social media age, sort of like randos, just normal, random people thrust into the spotlight for one reason or another. And God, people just have the most weird, bizarre flailing. They lose their minds. People are not prepared for it.

Chris Hayes

I mean, it's like an evil science experiment to produce psychosis.

David Roberts

And as you say, now we're getting attention when we want recognition, but it kind of seems like the constant pursuit of attention now is starting to occlude those activities by which we would get recognition. Do you know what I mean? Because recognition, seeing people as human beings, that takes some time and a little bit of devotion and a little bit of willingness to work through some awkwardness.

Chris Hayes

And mutual relationships, mutuality. I mean, that's the other key part, right? Like, there are a few reasons that attention is weird, right? Social attention. One is that it's kind of mere, it's necessary but not sufficient. Two is that it doesn't have to be mutual. Like, you can pay a lot of attention to Brad Pitt and not know him, right? It could go in one direction, right? You can't be in a friendship with Brad Pitt and not know him. You can't be in a romance with Brad Pitt, not know him. You can't be in a mentor-mentee โ€” you know, there's no relationship you can be with him, but you can pay him social attention.

And then, the third aspect that's weird is it can run the gamut from deep love to like, hatred to like โ€” you know, someone's screaming in your face on the subway, is paying you social attention. So, like, that's the other thing is there's no valence to it. And in fact, negative attention, I think, is in some ways, I think negative attention kind of out competes positive attention, if that makes sense.

David Roberts

One of the very common phenomena of our time is dudes โ€” not always dudes, but usually dudes โ€” who are so palpably desperate for recognition that they will accept negative attention as a substitute. Right. I mean, that is the life of Elon Musk in a nutshell.

Chris Hayes

I mean, the two most powerful people in the country are โ€”

David Roberts

Yes, and Trump.

Chris Hayes

Trump and Musk, I mean, are just... And I think it's born of their personalities. But I also think they have backed into a kind of feral insight. Like, I think trolling, which is the pursuit of negative attention, essentially, is an efficient means of getting attention, if you don't care about whether it's positive or not. Right. So it's like, if all you want is attention, it's probably easier to get negative attention than positive attention.

David Roberts

Yeah. I mean, I think that's pretty well established. It's the negative emotions โ€”

Chris Hayes

Yeah.

David Roberts

that grab you. Right. Outrage, anger, resentment.

Chris Hayes

And so, you've got this kind of trolling model that I think is, like, before our eyes, kind of colonizing all of public discourse. And it really is. And I think Musk is important in this because I think Trump is so sui generis, even I thought I was a little unclear to me how much he was sui generis. And now you've got this iterative 2.0 version in Musk that makes you recognize, like, "Oh, and I write about Musk in the book a lot more than I thought I would." And at a certain point, I was like, "Is there too much Musk in this book?"

It's like, "No, dude, this is โ€” the reason he keeps showing up is because he is at the vanguard of this." And so now that you've got Musk, it's like, "Oh, this is something more than just the weirdness of Trump. We've got another one now." And it's because of what the attentional incentives are.

David Roberts

Yes, and, you know, we don't want to get off on psychological diagnoses, but I think a lot of these people are incapable of doing the kind of things that would bring recognition or affirmation. That requires a little bit of mutuality, requires a little bit of seeing out into the world rather than only seeing your own ego. You know what I mean? So, like, these guys are never going to get what they want. That's the thing. It's so clear from the outside. They're trying so hard, and they're so never going to get what they want. But that is true on some smaller scale for all of us.

We're all kind of doing a little bit of what Musk is doing. Right? That's the horrible thing.

Chris Hayes

Yes, I mean, the comparison I make in the book is Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman, who says, you know, basically, opening scene, he comes back from a sales trip, and it's like, "I'm not there. No one listens to me." And his wife, to her sons, when lecturing them, is like, "He's a human being and attention must be paid." That's the line she says. She's not even asking her sons to pay Willy Loman love or the fidelity of sons. And we think of him as like, this unbelievably pathetic figure and this tragic figure, but it makes Willy Lomans of us all.

You know, here I am, I'm going around, I'm doing a publicity tour for my book.

David Roberts

Yeah, and I have a podcast. Like, that's a lot of attention. And yet, here I am, out every day on the Internet, shouting and yelling in pursuit of I know not what, unable to stop. So, one of the other big planks of the book's argument, so you have this stuff about attention and how it works and the different kinds. And the reason that this slot machine model has developed just in that grab, grab, grab, grab, grab, over and over again is easier than grab and hold. And that's true especially for social attention as well. But then you also have this other argument, which is that โ€” as I said, everyone's always wanted attention, right, like the competition for attention is not new โ€” but you think there's something new in the modern economy, where basically every other sphere of life is now starting to orient around attention, that the attention economy is eating the real economy. Just sort of make that case briefly.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, I'll try to make this as quickly as possible. I mean, the first step in the argument is to recognize that this sort of move from the industrial economy to the information economy, which I think is a fairly common thing. Right? Like, a lot of the economic activity now is generated by moving bits and not atoms. Right? So, if you're comparing a claims adjuster to a steelworker, right, the claims adjuster is just at a laptop all day. You know, she might be making more than the steelworker, but she's not physically moving the world. Right?

So, we all kind of understand there's this thing called the Information Age, the digital economy. The key insight here is that the most important resource of the Information Age isn't information, it's attention.

David Roberts

Right. Information consumes attention. I think that's another one that seems obvious once you read it, but, like, a lot falls out of that.

Chris Hayes

Exactly right. And that's from Herb Simon, a brilliant economist and political scientist, who wrote this paper, gave this talk about decision making in organizations under attentional constraints. And the finite thing is attention, not information. Your information's everywhere. David Roberts' information is in 10 places or a thousand places, does it matter that much? You don't even know. You know, it doesn't matter. It doesn't change your life if your attention is somewhere and not another place, you know, because that's yours and it's finite.

David Roberts

Yes, and information has become trivially cheap.

Chris Hayes

Yes.

David Roberts

Wildly oversupplied. And it's happened so quickly. Like, I really think, and I think you probably agree with this, I really think a lot of weird generational stuff has to do with the fact that old people today, our sort of oldest generation today, grew up in a world where information was still a relatively scarce resource. Yes. And that if you had it, you should hoard it. And that, like, and going out and seeking it and finding it was important. And those just mental and physical and political habits formed in that environment are now wildly out of place.

Chris Hayes

I mean, look at the notifications of any boomer, you know, on their phone. I mean, every single one. And the reason is for exactly that reason. Like, it used to be that someone would try to call you at your house and you weren't there, and you just missed the call. And, you know, there's entire Seinfeld plots around this. You know, people can tell you stories about missing some key call in their life that had some huge effect. "I asked this girl out, and then she called me back, but I wasn't there. And then she ended up going out with my friend." You know, something like that.

So, what does a boomer's phone look like? It's constant. It's like nothing's muted. It's all notified. I mean, God bless and love the boomers in my life, including my parents, who I love.

David Roberts

It's the same reason they keep their good china, you know, and like, every book they've ever had in their life.

Chris Hayes

Just, like, because it's valuable.

David Roberts

Yeah, they were raised in a time of information poverty.

Chris Hayes

Yeah.

David Roberts

Right. So, now information is everywhere. But, and this is the key insight of this chapter of the book, is just that, like, the flip side of information is attention. And for every bit more information you have, that makes attention more and more valuable because information is infinite and attention isn't.

Chris Hayes

And that's where you get this kind of supremacy of the brand over the product in the global economy.

David Roberts

That was a really interesting point.

Chris Hayes

I mean, this is Naomi Klein's thesis of No Logo, which is basically like, you know, at a certain point in globalized production, like, there's just a bunch of early in the, you know, 90s and 2000s, there's just a bunch of factories in Shenzhen.

David Roberts

Yeah, like, I don't know which factory in China is good at making shoes versus the one that isn't good at making shoes.

Chris Hayes

But you know, the swoosh, that's Nike. You know, the three stripes is Adidas. Like, what is a brand? A brand is an attentional focal point.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Chris Hayes

And so, what you get is a supremacy of the brand over the product in this kind of information economy. Right? Where the industrial production has become so commodified. Right? Like, it's indistinguishable from one place to the next. And obviously, there are difficult problems to solve. I don't want to minimize how hard it is to make a high-quality shoe at scale. That's a serious thing. But it's basically a solved problem. Right? And Amazon's a perfect example. This is the funniest thing. Amazon's the next iteration of this because it's even surpassed the brand. And here's what I mean.

So, the No Logo version of this is, you don't know where the shoe comes from. You just know the three stripes or the swoosh. The Amazon version of this is almost an inversion of this. How many products have you ordered whose name is like RJ4532i? And the reason you ordered it is because when you search in Amazon, the attentional focus on the top of the search results, which is the thing they are monetizing, is the thing that pops up that says, like, "Here's the best coffee percolator." You have no goddamn idea who the brand is or anything.

David Roberts

It's like a meta-brand. Amazon has become, has transcended mere brands.

Chris Hayes

Exactly. And it's so wild. That experience of ordering a thing from some company you've never heard of.

David Roberts

Yes, and just the assumption, my background assumption is just like, "Whatever this is, it's probably made in the same Chinese factory as the one with the other brand name." Like, what do I care?

Chris Hayes

Oh, totally.

David Roberts

Like, I have no connection at all to the roots or the physical source of those things. But make the case that, I mean, the core of the book is that attention has become the central resource of the modern economy. Make that case, why? And this has happened as we've watched. I mean, again, wild how fast.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, so I think if you put those things together, right, we've moved to the information economy. The information economy, the most valuable resource almost as a logical matter, is attention, because information consumes attention and there's more information than ever. And because we're in an era of post-material production and as more and more of the world moves into that kind of economy, then the finite thing left, the thing that's the most important thing to get is attention. Because it's finite and because there's competition for it. Right. Because you can't just generate more of it. It's like there's only so many people who are spending so many hours awake.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Chris Hayes

The competition for it is fierce, and the supply is not that plastic. So, you gotta keep finding new places to take it. Like, if you push people's bedtime down, if you could start getting six-month-olds, if you can get people to watch three things at once, you gotta keep kind of trying to find new places to mine it.

David Roberts

Yes, this is to me one of the more interesting and dystopian facets of all this. When you start thinking, "Well, okay, attention is the primary commodity. It's what everybody wants." Intuitively, it's finite. Like you say, we're only awake for so long. But then you start thinking about the details. You make a point of saying, "People have been predicting shortages of resources for capitalism for decades." And the sort of signal feature of capitalism is that it is extremely creative at finding more of those resources. So, you start thinking in concrete terms, "Well, how could capitalism find more attention?"

And you just follow that string a while, and it gets dystopian real quick. The first place my mind goes, and I'm curious whether you have thought of this too, is self-driving cars. What is that going to do?

Chris Hayes

Such a good point.

David Roberts

What that's going to do is free up a giant swath of attention, right?

Chris Hayes

That's such a good point. I hadn't even thought.

David Roberts

We are going to swarm on those things. Like, pretty soon, you're going to get in a car and you are going to be wrapped by advertising. This is my favorite dystopian scenario because it just feels inevitable to me.

Chris Hayes

That's great. I don't even make that point in the book. That is a very smart insight, and I totally agree. That's a place that they will unlock a whole bunch of attention that was locked up. Right. Because you had to keep your eyes on the road at some level. I mean, I say in the book when I talk about that, it's more plastic than you would think. Is that like when cars were first introduced, the idea that you'd be listening to the radio while doing it? It's like now, it's like you gotta be listening to something.

David Roberts

I know people get their phones out at stop signs, at stoplights.

Chris Hayes

Every stop sign.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's wild. So, there's that attention. There's less sleep. There are things that you used to do, you know, like leaving the house. The more you think about it, the more you realize, "Oh, there is a lot of attention left to mine."

And boy, is it ugly to think about what that's going to look like.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, it is. And I do think that you also see an increasing rebellion against it.

David Roberts

Well, we're going to get to that later, but I want to do a couple of other points before we talk about what the rebellion might look like. So, one of the, I thought, really interesting discussions in the book is this parallel you draw. So, Marx has this whole theory of the commodification of labor. Right. So, you have this thing, labor, that used to be part of my life. Right. It was just mine. I did it for my own purposes, and I got the immediate rewards of it. It was integrated into my life. It would never have occurred to sort of a pre-, you know, pre-agrarian, whatever, human to think of that as a commodity.

Chris Hayes

Yeah.

David Roberts

And what capitalism did is sort of take that from you and make it into a timed, quantifiable commodity, and thus you become alienated from it. And of course, anyone who's read their Marx knows that this is like, this goes all kinds of places. A very deep part of his theory is the alienation of modern life, of humans from their own labor. And the parallel you draw is that what's happening now is that capitalism is in the process of commodifying attention, thus producing a similar form of alienation. So, just spin that out a little bit.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, I think that the signature feature of alienation, and that word can mean a lot of things and can sometimes be amorphous, is a feeling that something that should be internal to us is outside of us, and that we're a stranger to some part of ourselves because of it. And, you know, with labor, it was very material. Like, again, you know, it's not like it was awesome before capitalism, like in feudal systems, just the local lord owned your labor. Right. It's like there's no wage because they just owned you. Everything you did was for them.

But, you know, if you were a shoemaker, you made a shoe, and at the end of that process where you're doing a whole bunch of different things, you have a shoe. Then you sell that shoe and you're transferring the ownership of the shoe from yourself to someone else in a market exchange, and they give you money. If you spend 12 hours a day stamping soles on shoes, which is a thing that right now, as I speak to you, people are doing in this world, to be clear. That's a pretty alienating experience.

David Roberts

Yeah. No pride of ownership.

Chris Hayes

No progression, no telos.

David Roberts

No narrative, no continuity.

Chris Hayes

You don't start at the beginning and then have a middle and an end and then you're finishing the shoe. And Marx recognized something profound about this. You know, he had a whole sort of material theory of it as well as a sort of psychological experience of it. And I think with attention it's the same thing. You know, Karl Polanyi, who's a sort of Marx-influenced economist, uses this term "fictitious commodity."

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Chris Hayes

Where he identifies that a word is useful. Like, you know, if you take rubber out of a tree and rubber is commoditized, which means standardized, every amount of it is equal to every other. Every barrel of oil is the same as every other barrel of oil. Like, that's very different when you do it to someone's labor. It's the thing they're doing. Or their attention, which is where they're putting their mind. When you extract from within us a market commodity, we feel alienation from it. And the other similarity, I think, is this one of the paradoxes of the industrial wage revolution that Marx is putting his finger on is labor is the most important resource in some senses to make the whole thing work.

If you don't have the workers, you can't have industrial capitalism. And yet, each individual's labor is essentially valueless. So, it's like from your perspective, I'm in the factory 12 hours a day, six or seven days a week, and I'm poor. In the aggregate, all of those man hours add up to the industrial revolution. And in the same way, the individual amount that's paid for our attention every day is nothing, but the aggregate of it is incredibly valuable and makes fortunes and drives the entire Internet.

David Roberts

Similarly, I think from the boss's perspective, when it comes to labor, an individual worker's idiosyncrasies or life history, right, or personality, all of those are at best sort of a distraction and kind of an impediment, right? They're complications.

Chris Hayes

They're obstacles.

David Roberts

What you want is a nice, smooth, standard, tradable quantity. So, in a sense, like everything that makes people human is an inconvenience to a boss who's after labor. I think it's similar with attention. Like, this is part of what platforms to me are, is a way of trying to make a standardized unit of attention, right? That becomes tradable, that becomes fungible.

Chris Hayes

It's funny because there's something counterintuitive there. There's an interesting, deep tension here, right? Because you're right, it's trying to do the standardization. And it is on the back end, like whatever second of eyeball looking.

David Roberts

Time spent on site.

Chris Hayes

Right. Time spent on site. But it's also sort of the opposite of the standardization in the degree of individuation of the kind of algorithmic feed, which is bespoke in a certain way. Right. Like, it's the thing they're trying to get from you is very specific to you. Part of the alienation, I think, is we sort of lost more and more aspects of shared attention.

David Roberts

Yeah, the loss of this feeling that you're attending to something that other people are attending to also, right?

Chris Hayes

And I think, honestly, the Super Bowl is one of the last things of this. And I will say this: I have come to like the Super Bowl more over time simply because it is one of the last vestiges of something we all pay attention to.

David Roberts

Yeah. Mass culture. I mean, this is why I think people are so powerfully sentimental about the 90s in a way that I think is a little bit more than just standard nostalgia. Like, there was still a mass culture in the 90s, you know what I mean? Like, there was still something about which you could meaningfully say you were counterculture. Right. Like, there was something to rebel against. There was, you know, a shared something. But now, like, if you wanted to be rebellious, nobody's trying to make you do anything, like, you know what I mean? There's nothing to rebel against anymore.

There's no culture as such anymore, really, it feels like.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, I mean, I think culture finds a way is one thing I will say. Like, it is interesting to me how intensely, rabidly social we are as creatures and how we find ways to create culture under all conditions, you know? But I do think that part of the experience of alienation, which is this thing that should be internal to us, being extracted from us, and also the individuation and the aloneness, all those things sort of go together.

David Roberts

I'll quote your own book: "It's hard not to conclude that there is a relationship between the rise of solitude in modern life and this process of ever more specific individuation of our attention." So, in a sense, like, our attention is constantly being captured. But creating culture โ€” I think this is an interesting point โ€” creating culture right now, I think about this a lot through the eyes of my kids. Like, for me growing up in the 90s, if I wanted to create music, there was a narrative of, like, what music had been popular, what music was currently popular, and a place for me to go.

Like, "I'll go tweak this bit." It just, like, I felt like I was part of some tradition. Some ongoing, you know, some ongoing narrative. Whereas now, everything is everywhere. Everything is on the surface. So, like, music, my kids, they don't... There's no distinction for my kids between Steely Dan and, you know, Kanye. And, like, it's all just music. It's all just there. It's all just there for the taking.

Chris Hayes

Right. Because they could listen to it at any time. And this is the other thing about โ€”

David Roberts

Like, just everything's everywhere. Everything's all the time. So, like, how do you decide? On what basis do you decide, "This rather than this. I will make this kind of music rather than this kind of music."

Chris Hayes

This is the funny thing and a place that I think we are kind of coming to a 360 degrees, which is gatekeeping. And I do think that one of the things, the problem that the algorithm solves, which actually is real, is just being overwhelmed by choice.

David Roberts

Yeah, well, that coupled with the loss of trust in any particular human or institution to do that for us. We're letting the algorithms do it instead of people. And, like, so much follows from that. So, let's talk then. Let's pivot toward, like, solutions. You know, like, you know, I say this from love. Every book like yours is required by some law or other to include the solutions chapter.

Chris Hayes

I think this is one of my best of three. I just want to say, personally, I think this is my best of the three books I've written.

David Roberts

Well, I will say I think it's a completely unreasonable expectation to ask analysts to have solutions to the problems they identify in their back pocket. It's kind of goofy anyway. So, you sort of nod at some solutions. But I got to say, I was not filled with, like, I did not come away happy or uplifted. But let me read a couple of quotes to you, if you'll indulge me quoting your book at you again. Here's a couple that I think really get at this. We're talking about the sort of implications for culture. We're talking about the implications for personal psychology.

But then, there's also, I think, just the implications for public life, society, politics. So, "The reality of the attention age is that everywhere you look, both formal and substantive attentional regimes have collapsed. And where there is no attentional regime, no formal set of institutions to force public attention on a topic, no basic rules for who will speak when and who will listen, the need for attention becomes exclusive. It swallows debate, it swallows persuasion, it swallows discourse whole." And then a little bit later, "We have a country full of megaphones, a crushing wall of sound, the swirling lights of a 24/7 casino blinking at us.

All part of a system minutely engineered to take our attention away from us for profit. Under these conditions, anything resembling democratic deliberation seems not only impossible but increasingly absurd. Like trying to meditate in a strip club." And that, to me, captured something that I haven't really been able to capture yet, which is just not only is there nothing that I can identify as sort of rational debate or exchange of views happening anymore, I don't even really know where to look, where it would happen. Like, as you say, everybody and every institution and everybody who certainly is involved in the content game is under this same compulsion.

They need attention. That's how they make money. And to get attention, you grab it, grab it, grab it, grab it, grab it. Which, by definition, means not sitting on one thing for a while and considering different angles of it and considering other perspectives on it. So, it seems like what we have here is an equation, the nature of attention, the nature of the attention economy that just leaves no remainder for democratic deliberation, for sort of self-intelligent, self-governance. So, what, like โ€”

Chris Hayes

How do we solve it?

David Roberts

Yeah, I feel doomed. It feels, it feels doomed. Like, what is the way out of this?

Chris Hayes

I think you've identified to me that on the sort of what authors will sometimes call the "last chapter problem," like to me, I think you've identified the hardest one to solve. So, I think you're like, that's the one that feels the hardest, which is understanding this as a collective breakdown of the ability to focus in the same way that an individual who can't focus is going to have a hard time sustaining thought or accomplishing tasks. A society that is incapable of focusing in a democracy, incapable of focusing, is also going to have that, you know, writ large at scale.

David Roberts

Add this to your description, which just goes to me, and this is where I bring capitalism back in, is just that capitalism is constantly trying to satisfy those id, those lizard brain level wants, want, want, want, want, want. And by definition, sustained contemplation requires some bits of frustration. You will know this like any attempt to become good at anything, and that includes arguing and deliberating or playing guitar or woodworking or whatever, requires being willing to work through frustration and live with that frustration. It seems like capitalism is devoted to eliminating any type of frustration like that, thereby eliminating any possibility of sustained anything.

So anyway, go ahead.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, so I think that's the hardest problem, and I think it's one of the biggest problems we face. And I'm not going to sugarcoat it. It's really bad. And you know, even as you're describing, like yourself, about how you, you know, I think a great example of this, you know, I see people always sort of talking about the legacy media and like, how much it sucks. And particularly people who are now like, in the content creator game. And one of the ironies is if you have your position as an independent creator, you're actually much more tied to the, like, financial incentives of what you do than people in traditional legacy media.

Like, you know, someone who's a reporter at The Washington Post, their livelihood, their mortgage didn't depend on how many views they were getting. They had assignments, they did stories, they got written. And you were actually fairly insulated from these attention imperatives. Your job was โ€” and there's all sorts of problems with that model and all kinds of issues.

David Roberts

Well, it used to be the point of that institution to protect people from those attentional imperatives. That was, indeed, that is what journalism is.

Chris Hayes

Exactly. Because, as I say in the book, attention is not a moral faculty. And that really is what it all comes down to. When you have this breakdown of attentional regimes, this war of all against all, this sort of hyper-distractibility, this inability to focus where attention swallows everything, what gets attention is not what's most important.

David Roberts

Or what's true.

Chris Hayes

Or what's true. Exactly. It's not what's most important, and it's not what's true.

David Roberts

As a matter of fact, truth, as you and I know to our great chagrin โ€”

Chris Hayes

Is kind of boring sometimes.

David Roberts

Kind of boring, kind of frustrating. Kind of more complicated than you thought it was before you took a look.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, exactly. Like, people going around Los Angeles secretly lighting fires for some sinister motive is actually more interesting than just like, there were winds and they picked up embers.

David Roberts

I mean, Jewish space lasers, whatever else you might say about that, are quite interesting. You're going to pay attention if somebody brings them up.

Chris Hayes

So, I don't have a solution to that. But here's where I do actually feel genuine, not like forced, but genuine optimism. I think the feeling of claustrophobia that we're in a corridor and dissatisfaction around the specific form of attention capitalism right now is getting so ubiquitous and so intense and acute that I do think it's hitting some breaking point.

David Roberts

But, do people, I mean, the question I have about that is, are people accurately identifying the source of the angst they feel? Do you know what I mean? Like, to solve the problem, you've got to identify the real problem.

Chris Hayes

I don't know if they are yet. But I do think I have a kind of thousand flowers will bloom version of this where I think people are going to increasingly drop out of social media. And actually, you're seeing this in the numbers which are going down. I think that people are going to sort of hit some wall. I think that as the Internet gets less pleasant to be part of, and then like they're populating it with AI bots, which is the funniest thing I've ever seen. It's so funny to look at the modern Internet and be like, "The problem is we got too many people."

David Roberts

Yeah, like, what is the most denuded form of social attention that you could possibly imagine? Is it a robot saying your name? And yet, it works. People are falling in love with these things. People are having relationships with these things. It takes so little to activate that.

Chris Hayes

But I do think the rebellion is percolating, and there's a bunch of different ways it'll happen. Like at an individual level, I think in, you know, group levels. Like the sort of way that the Jonathan Haidt book has taken off in schools in terms of school and phone policy.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Chris Hayes

Which I think is just โ€” it's crazy to me that some of this stuff wasn't being done before. Like, take the kids' phones so they don't have them in class, obviously.

David Roberts

But then, just to give some color to our dystopia, you get parents saying, "But what about when school shootings start?"

Chris Hayes

Yeah, I know that's...

David Roberts

"We need to be able to text one another for the school shootings." Oh, God.

Chris Hayes

But, but, but, I will say that there's been success there. To go back to a metaphor I used before, which I actually think is really useful. Well, there's two. Let me give two sources of hope. One is that there are these meme accounts that exist of like recipe books from the 70s and 80s that are like the grossest things you've ever seen.

David Roberts

Jello salads.

Chris Hayes

Jello salads, processed food casseroles. Right. And the reason they work is because they're kind of identifying a kind of low point dead end in the total takeover of all of American cuisine by the most like industrial, corporatized slop. People did start to rebel against it and a bunch of weirdos and freaks โ€” and I say that with love โ€” started farms and back to the land and opened natural food stores and green markets and farm-to-table dining and basically did completely alter the trajectory of American cuisine and American food culture. And that's not to say that we still don't have a million problems with it and sky-high rates of obesity and unbelievable amounts of processed industrial food.

But there was a resistance rebellion that created this entire alternate universe that then kind of moved into the mainstream.

David Roberts

Yeah, the food revolution in our lifetime has been wild. It's incredible. It's everywhere. Every small town now has a little coffee shop, whatever.

Chris Hayes

Totally. And the other example I think that's really useful is that we already in our lifetime have seen a corporate Internet defeated by an open Internet once. And people forget this, but the first version of the mass Internet were the walled gardens of AOL, CompuServe, and Prodigy. And the reason that AOL was able to buy Time Warner is that it was the most valued media company in the world at a certain point. And what happened was that model, which was completely corporate-controlled and you moved around where they wanted you to go, was destroyed by the open Internet.

You know, hilariously, partly because of Marc Andreessen creating a graphical user interface web browser called Netscape, that then made it possible that anyone could start a blog and you could fill in the little URL box. Anyone could be on the Internet and people could exchange. And that open Internet defeated, it genuinely defeated the corporate Internet. We have now gone through a consolidation when we're back in the period of the corporate.

David Roberts

Yes, we won that battle and then gave it back.

Chris Hayes

Won it and lost it, absolutely. But it doesn't mean it can't be won again. I really think that, like, that's another thing. Is that part of the rebellion you're seeing? Part of โ€” I mean, even just something as silly as Bluesky, which is growing at a totally astronomical rate and is not like a nonprofit. It's, you know, it's also a corporation but it has the values of the open Internet in it. That is because people are actually seeking this out and voting with their feet a bit. And again, how does that accrete to a democratic republic and a public that's not so malformed as the one we have?

That, I genuinely do not know. But I do, to my core, think that we're at a kind of, like, nadir. We're at the, like, jello salad period of the Internet? I really do think that.

David Roberts

It's hard for me โ€” I mean, I didn't come into this intending to sound like a DSA guy, but, you know, I come back to capitalism. Like, just if it were just the dynamics of attention playing out, like, that's how I think of the Old Internet. It's just like the quirkiest little weirdest things you could come across because they didn't need to maximize attention.

Chris Hayes

Yep.

David Roberts

Just needed to get a little bit. Like, you could attend to things that were sort of obscurely popular among groups. Like, that was what was so great about it. There's so much creativity and like โ€”

Chris Hayes

Yes.

David Roberts

Part of what was beautiful about the early Internet is, you could just be like, "Oh, like, people are so clever. There's so many different kinds of people, and they are so clever."

Chris Hayes

And it made me think higher. It made me think, like, I was always blown away by how smart people are.

David Roberts

Yeah, and how funny they are.

Chris Hayes

How funny they are, how creative they are, what their skills and talents are, the things they can make. Like, I love that part of the Internet. I still to this day do.

David Roberts

They commodified it. Like, this is where I come back to capitalism. Once you commodify it, then you have to maximize it. Then you have to direct all your attention toward what gets the most. Not just some, right, a little bit. What gets the most attention. And what gets the most attention is shouting. Right. Like, what gets the most attention is just negativity and bitterness. And so, like, the Internet has become, like, so nasty. I don't know if you've been. I don't know if you've been back to Twitter recently or been back to X.

I mean, if you're out of it for a while and then you go back in, you're just like, "My God, what would it do to you to be in this day after day? Like, I used to live here. I can't believe it."

Chris Hayes

You know, one thought I had was I was thinking about this last election, and I was thinking about three elections. 1964, landslide for the incumbent. That's LBJ beating Goldwater. 1972, landslide for the incumbent. That's Nixon beating McGovern. 84, landslide for the incumbent. That's Reagan beating Mondale. And then you could also add 96, which is not a landslide, but Clinton basically cruises to victory in 96. Like, it's never really in doubt.

You know, and in all four of those, basically, they were. You know, people talk about "change versus more of the same" elections. People were just like, "Yeah, things are going well. Like, let's keep this going. This is going well." I just think it's impossible to produce a public right now that would feel that way. Totally impossible. And that's not even an โ€” I'm not making an ideological point. I'm saying the information environment we live in, the attentional environment we live in is one of negativity.

David Roberts

And it cannot spread good news.

Chris Hayes

It cannot be the case that people are like, "You know what, things are going well."

David Roberts

Can't just say, "Biden set out to do X and he did it. Good job, Biden." Like, no one is allowed to say anything good about anybody. Michael Podhorzer made this point in one of his analyses last week. It's like, no political party in the US is capable of winning elections anymore. The other one loses, right? Like, people get more pissed off at the other one. So, as a final question before I let you go here, it seems to me like the signal malady of our modern life, from which all these others derive, is the loss of trust.

And you and I know we've talked about social trust and how important social trust is for a society to persist, to stay, much less stay healthy. And it seems like what's happened is we've lost trust in all our institutions, right? This is in all the data. We've lost trust in one institution after another. We've lost trust in any gatekeepers. So, what we have in place of gatekeepers now are algorithms run on capitalist logic. And that's what we're trusting in place of gatekeepers. Like, as you say, because information is infinite and attention is finite by definition, all human beings in that context are dependent on filters of some kind.

You have to have some kind. You're trusting some filter, whether you know it or not. And if you decided that "The MSM is full of crap and politicians are all lying and blah, blah, blah," you're going to trust instead some algorithm written by Silicon Valley bros. It's not like you're not trusting someone. You've just put your trust in what seems to me the worst possible place for it. So, I wonder a) like, do you think the attention dilemma is connected to the trust dilemma? And I guess my second question, which is too big to answer on any podcast, it's just like, do you see any, like, I can see people like you say, finding their attentional farmers markets, as you put it right there, little respites I can imagine, especially affluent people, right?

Like, finding shelter from this. But what I have trouble envisioning is the redevelopment of some kind of social trust, redeveloping institutions that we charge with the task of separating what's true from what's not true. You know, like science, journalism. Do you, is it just an individualist, everybody on their own world from now on?

Chris Hayes

No, I think we're going to find each other again, I really do. I know that sounds a little hippie, but I do. And I think partly that's because the non-commercial Internet defeated the commercial Internet once and is going to do it again. Partly because I think that actually I have a view of the possibility of human cooperation that's informed by my upbringing in the left. That is, even if battered and bruised, sort of undeterred. Which is that I think people can collectively do amazing things. And I think that that's going to involve activism.

Like, there's people, you know, it's going to have to be a thing that people mobilize for and really view as an issue, as something they are committed to. There's this thing called the Strother School of Radical Attention, some really interesting people coming outโ€”

David Roberts

Don't you worry, though, that like young people raised in this environment, which makes it so difficult to sustain attention, and which makes this. That feeling of ease is everywhere. That's what I think about my kids. Like, yeah, they've just never run into any kind of friction ever, anywhere. But like, doing anything worthwhile, making any friendship that's worthwhile, creating anything that's worth doing requires tolerating some friction. And it just seems like that's what we've designed out of lives now.

Chris Hayes

Yeah, and I think that people, I don't know where this will end up, but I do think that people are going to find their way back to it or invent some new version of it. And I also think ultimately we are going to regulate this one way or the other. It could be good or bad. I think a lot of these companies need to be broken up. I think they're too big. I think they control too much. But like, you know, we've gone from oligarchy as a kind of metaphor we all use to like the literal version, like the genuine literal version where it's like there's half a dozen billionaires and they're close to the like personalist leader.

David Roberts

Yeah, we went from Soros as a metaphor to like a literal dude literally doing all the things that they ever said George Soros was doing.

Chris Hayes

So, I think there's going to be mobilization and activism, and political pressure on this. And I think people are going to do it in a million different ways. Voting with their feet, as consumers, as political actors, in groups of other people, as civic actors creating civic non-commercial spaces, and also as citizens working on their government. But I do think, like, it feels like a breaking point to me and that's the only good news I have because everyone feels it. Everyone feels it. They really do. Like, in the same way that, when you read accounts of people walking around London in 1890, and they're like, "Oh, my God, this is unbearable."

Literally, it's like, soot, black skies, and cholera in the water, and sewage everywhere. This is the most disgusting place on Earth. Something must be done.

David Roberts

I thought your comparison of pollution to spam, or your sort of analogy, is very good. Like, spam is basically the newest form of pollution, and we've not yet really developed a regime to control it.

Chris Hayes

And so I think when you, yeah, when you go back and you. You think about the conditions that brought about so much that altered the trajectory of industrial capitalism, its worst excesses, I feel like the attentional capitalism we're living right now, like, it feels to me a little like that person writing there about visiting London in the 1890s. You know, we're just like, this is a disgusting place to be. Like, how long can this go on? And I think we're there, and I think that's the first step to, like, creating something new.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, I guess at some point people are gonna start thinking, "You know, it's cool that I'm allowed to think whatever's happening is whatever I want to happen, but it would also be cool to know what's really happening."

You know, I'm just waiting for, like, a new generation to be like, "You know what? Like, what's really going on, though?" Like, I'm tired of feeling like I'm getting a โ€” like, being on the Internet is like getting a handjob in a back alley, you know, like someone who's just, like, "Giving you whatever you want," like, at the immediate. Like, you get nothing, you know, you come away feeling kind of dirty. I keep waiting for people to be like, I want, I miss developing knowledge over time and developing skills over time and valuing skills and knowledge that were developed over time.

And just the โ€” I keep coming back to Buddhism, as you did in the book, as a sort of corrective to all this. But we could talk about this forever. Fascinating book. I appreciate you. I appreciate your work. I appreciate you somehow keeping open eyes and strong values despite the insane contexts in which you work. So thanks for coming on and thanks for the book.

Chris Hayes

Thanks, man. I really had a great time.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

What's the deal with pumped-hydro energy storage?

In this episode, I talk with Erik Steimle of Rye Development about the new wave of "closed loop" pumped-hydro storage projects. Unlike traditional systems that rely on rivers and dams, these projects use two artificial reservoirs โ€” providing reliable long-duration storage without impacting natural waterways. We explore the economics of these billion-dollar facilities, their 100+ year lifespans, and how they compare to lithium-ion storage.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Hello everyone, this is Volts for January 22, 2025, "What's the deal with pumped hydro energy storage?" I am your host, David Roberts.

As solar and wind power flood onto the grid, the value of energy storage that can smooth them out and fill in their gaps increases. In particular, there is growing interest in longer-duration storage, at least longer than the 10 hours or so that can be cost-effectively covered by lithium-ion batteries.

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One such form of storage โ€” an old form that's been getting a new look โ€” is pumped-hydro storage (PHS), which involves pumping water uphill when there is a power surplus on the grid and releasing it downhill, through generators, when there is a deficit. Think of it as a big, wet battery, with reservoirs of water as the anode and cathode.

Pumped hydro has typically been built where there is a river in just the right formation, which limits its application. But lately, developers have been pursuing what's called "closed loop" pumped hydro, which involves two reservoirs, one high, one low, that exchange water through a pipe. No rivers or dams are involved, which broadens its geographic potential considerably.

Erik Steimle
Erik Steimle

That is the kind of project that today's guest is working on. Erik Steimle is the Chief Development Officer for Rye Development, the leading US developer of closed-loop pumped hydro systems.

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The company has projects in various stages of pre-construction advancement in Kentucky, Oregon, and Washington. I'm excited to talk to Steimle about the technology and engineering involved, the economics of the industry, and how he views the competition between different forms of energy storage.

With no further ado, Erik Steimle, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Erik Steimle

Yes, thanks for having me on.

David Roberts

When I was first thinking about whether to do this episode, I was like, "Well, pumped hydro, everybody kind of knows how it works. Everybody kind of gets it. There's not that much of it. It's not that much of it happening." And then, you know, as typically happens, I started reading about it, talking to people about it, and now I have 472 questions. So we're going to have to move pretty quick. Describe the type of pumped hydro systems that you build.

Erik Steimle

So, first off, pumped storage, as you alluded to, has been providing energy storage capacity and transmission benefits in the US since the 1920s. There are 43 pumped storage projects that are in operation in the US โ€” 23 gigawatts. Pumped storage accounts for currently over 90% of the country's utility-scale storage.

David Roberts

Yes, almost all of it. And when was the most recent one put into...?

Erik Steimle

There was a small project in California, part of an existing system, that went online just about 15 years ago. But the last major project that was built in the US was built over 30 years ago.

David Roberts

Oh, wow. So we're at the front edge here of another wave of this. Like, the wave really technically has not yet started. There are not a bunch more being built yet.

Erik Steimle

Yes, that's correct. And while pumped storage is currently the backbone of the energy storage system or the grid here in the US, there hasn't been a new one in 30 years. Primarily because there hasn't been a major change in the grid until the last 10 years or so.

David Roberts

Yes, and I have many questions about those changes and what they portend, but one of the things I wanted to ask is, so the pumped storage systems that are up and running now, are they all open loop? Is closed loop a genuinely new thing?

Erik Steimle

It's a genuinely new type of technology. In the United States, there are closed loop projects that have been built elsewhere. So yes, I mean, currently in the US, pumped storage projects include one new artificial pond or reservoir. And then, typically, the lower reservoir is an existing river or lake that's used for the system. The projects that Rye is developing across the US have an artificial upper and lower reservoir. So the system is essentially filled with a sustainable source of water one time. The reservoirs are lined and sealed, and so the water is just moving back and forth between two artificial ponds based on the demands of the grid.

So, these are much more environmentally sustainable projects than traditional hydropower. Typically, they're easier to permit. Also, we have more flexibility on where these types of projects can be located.

David Roberts

Let's start with the environmental. So, just like I think, the main thing to tell ordinary people that they probably don't know upfront is just you're not messing with any natural water systems. You are not an ongoing consumer of water. You fill the pool up once and then you're just moving the water back and forth. So, in terms of ongoing water consumption, you're just compensating for evaporation, right?

Erik Steimle

That's correct.

David Roberts

And that's what, like what per year? How much evaporates? 1%, 5%?

Erik Steimle

It depends, obviously, where the project is located. In the US, some parts of the US, you know, evaporation is much higher than others. In some cases, you know, just building two artificial ponds on the landscape, you can have a net gain of water, right. If it's in a particularly wet environment, which you need to manage that as well, you may need to have some releases. But in general, yes, there is some loss from a sealed closed system in the environment. So, we're typically talking about a couple hundred acre-feet of water per year to operate a project.

So, we'd have some seepage and evaporative losses. That's a really small amount of water when you think about the type and amount of storage a new pumped storage project can provide. Especially since, you know, typically we're contracting this water from an existing municipality or local district that has water to sell for industrial purposes. So, you know, they're looking to sign up new customers, they're looking at how much water are you going to use, what is the tax base and jobs that you are providing with this new industrial use of water and pumped storage is an amazing asset from that standpoint.

You know, a lot of new tax base, a lot of jobs associated with it. This is essentially a domestic source of energy storage that uses relatively little water to operate.

David Roberts

Yeah, so the ongoing water needs are minimal. And the water in ordinary operation doesn't really come in contact with the soil, right, or the water table or any of that? I mean, it's confined to the pipe, more or less, right?

Erik Steimle

Yes, correct. So, you have an upper and a lower reservoir. These reservoirs are lined, so there's either a geomembrane or an asphalt or concrete-type liner. So, the water itself, when it sits in these reservoirs, is not coming in contact with a natural environment. And then, as you said, there is a pipe or penstock that connects the upper and lower reservoirs with the powerhouse itself. You know, pumped storage works just like a traditional hydro project. You know, during periods of time of increased demand for electricity, but the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining, you can release water from that upper reservoir and generate electricity.

And then, conversely, during periods of time when there's excess supply of intermittent renewables, you use that energy to pump water back up the hill and then store it again. The cycle just repeats itself based on demands from the grid.

David Roberts

So, yeah, the reason I started here is just that I think that when people typically hear pumped hydro, the very first things they think of are dams and rivers and needing a bunch of water. So, I just wanted to get it up front: There's no dam, there's no river, and there's a fixed amount of water up front, but no โ€” basically trivial โ€” ongoing water demand. I just wanted to get that on the table.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, that's correct. It's a totally new way of looking at large-scale hydropower in the United States.

David Roberts

Obviously, if you are relying on dams, rivers, or areas with abundant water, all those are geographic restrictions. You are not restricted by any of those. So, what is the geographical space open to you? Like, what are the geographic limiters? Basically, you need a hill. Anything else?

Erik Steimle

Great question. We do need some topographic relief or a hill between the two reservoirs. For Rye's projects, we're typically looking for 500 vertical feet of relief between the two artificial ponds. Although there are pumped storage projects with topographic relief or head that is less than 500 vertical feet, but that's typically what we're looking for. So somewhere between 500 vertical feet and 2,000 vertical feet of head, which, you know, when you take a look at the United States, for instance, there are vast areas in the United States that could accommodate this type of project.

David Roberts

Yeah, we have a lot of hills. And that's it. So, other than that, you could plop one of these down almost anywhere.

Erik Steimle

That's correct, yeah. You need some proximity, obviously, to transmission and load.

David Roberts

Yeah, that was my next question. What are the grid limiters? You need a pretty fat connection, right? And getting a new connection, as Volts listeners are well aware of at this point, takes a while.

Erik Steimle

Yes, I mean, this type of storage does have the same types of constraints with interconnection that other types of storage would have, or that new generation is seeing across the United States. But yes, you need to site this type of project near an existing high voltage transmission corridor, have a source of water, and then of course have the geology necessary to support this type of construction. So, reservoirs and the penstock. But you know, we're seeing more and more a lot of interest and ability to develop these types of projects on lands that are often passed up for other types of energy generation.

So, you know, we have a new project that we're pursuing in Kentucky on former mine lands.

David Roberts

Yes, very cool project. This is the abandoned mine, right?

Erik Steimle

Yes, that's correct. The Lewis Ridge Pumped Storage Project. It's in Bell County, Kentucky. It's located at the site of a former coal mine and could help replace energy industry jobs that were lost as the coal plants retired. So, a lot of former mine sites offer ideal conditions, including elevation changes, access to transmission that's often there, available water sources, and of course, a local workforce.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, true. And then I guess you need some connection to load. Although, I guess if you're plopping down near a big transmission connection, you're probably pretty close to load if you find one of those.

Erik Steimle

Yes, of course, willing landowner, local support. But I mean, you know, these types of storage projects don't have the hard rock mining or the foreign supply chain issues that we typically talk about when we're talking about batteries. The largest costs for the project are concrete, steel, and labor.

David Roberts

Are the pools made of concrete?

Erik Steimle

Yes. So, the reservoirs, you know, are typically a cut-and-fill type reservoir, and then the surface, the interior surface of the reservoirs, is typically a concrete or asphaltic concrete lined facility.

David Roberts

And then, steel pipe. But that is a lot of concrete.

Erik Steimle

Yes.

David Roberts

I mean, two giant pools. It is substantial CapEx we're talking about, is it not?

Erik Steimle

It is, yes. So, one of the disadvantages of pumped storage compared to lithium-ion is the initial CapEx of the project. You know, most of the projects that Rye is looking at are in excess of a billion dollars. In fact, most of the pumped storage that's being looked at in the US are projects that range from, I would say, 1 to 3 billion dollars. Now, these are large projects. So, we're talking about, you know, storage projects that could provide on-demand capacity or storage for a long period of time for entire urban regions, you know, so they are significant in size. And the one way to think about this that's different than batteries or lithium-ion batteries is just the long life of pumped storage.

David Roberts

I was thinking through the technology, and it's like, "Well, pools, you know, I think we've mastered those, and steel pipe and generators like these are all very extremely well-understood technologies." And the sort of dams, the hydropower projects that use these same technologies, there are some that are, you know, 100 years old, 150 years old. So, like, there's no reason once you build one of these things, it couldn't just run forever, right?

Erik Steimle

That's right. The lifespan, or expected lifespan, for new pumped storage is well over a hundred years. And so, while there is a higher upfront cost, the overall cost of the project is significantly lower than any other type of energy storage. And that's, you know, something that's held up for the hydropower industry by DOE and lots of others.

David Roberts

Right, well, that just sort of depends on the time horizon of your money.

Erik Steimle

Yes.

David Roberts

Doesn't it? Like, I mean, if you're amortizing over 100 years, then obviously you're going to come out, you know, you're going to come out ahead. But like, you're not going to find capital that's 100 years patient. So, you know what I mean? Like, you kind of have to find some patient capital to do this, don't you? You're looking for infrastructure-type capital, right?

Erik Steimle

Yes. Although you know โ€”

David Roberts

Like is there any VCs involved in any of this?

Erik Steimle

So, Rye's capital comes from two sources. Rye is owned by EDF Inc. and Climate Adaptive Infrastructure. These are two global leaders in utility-scale energy storage investment, including construction and operation of pumped storage. So, we're well capitalized to actually pursue these types of projects.

David Roberts

I see.

Erik Steimle

And there's more and more utilities that are interested in diversifying storage and thinking about storage diversity when we're talking about grid reliability, resource adequacy that are looking more long term.

David Roberts

And do you find that utility capital is patient in the way you need?

Erik Steimle

So, we're finding that it is more and more, and I would argue that it was only a few years ago where there were really only a handful of utilities seriously considering contracts for new storage. And that, of course, has changed to be something that utilities across the United States are looking for at this current time. And as part of that, we're seeing load increases across the US, primarily tied to AI and data centers. But there are other reasons as well. So, as we look at load increases and needing to bring storage into the system to deal with new sources of intermittent renewables and with coal coming offline, there's a real new focus on rates and rate increases.

And so, being able to, for example, bring in a project that, from a degradation standpoint, has very little degradation over a long period of time, you know, something that has relatively low cost over a longer period of time, is of interest. So that could be a, you know, a 30-year power purchase agreement or a utility acquiring one of these projects as part of their resource mix where they can have it as a long-term asset.

David Roberts

Right. How many? I mean, you're not... None of your projects are currently under construction. I want to talk about the timeline later, but none of your projects are currently under construction. How many are in the pipeline somewhere?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so in the US right now, there's more interest in new pumped storage than ever before. These aren't just Rye's projects, but there's over 90 pumped storage projects that are proposed in the FERC queue. That's over 50 gigawatts across the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. And Rye Development has the first construction-ready project of all these projects being looked at. But a lot of these projects are in the early stage of design. And that's in part by what I was saying earlier: There hasn't been a strong interest in vast amounts of storage until fairly recently.

And a lot of these projects are projects where there's a focus, or an interest, or a market need in the 2030s. So, we're just sort of seeing the start of real growth here.

David Roberts

Are most of these upcoming projects closed loop? Like, is there sort of an industry-wide shift happening to closed loop or is it just a site by site type of thing?

Erik Steimle

It is site by site. There are a lot of these projects that are closed loop, but there are a number of projects being proposed where they're part of an existing hydropower system. So, you've got a licensed, fully operating system, and a utility or other developer is looking at just adding an additional upper reservoir to that system.

David Roberts

So you have an operating dam, you just stick a new reservoir up on top of a hill somewhere and pump water up and down to it, but still part of the same project?

Erik Steimle

Yes.

David Roberts

What is the round trip efficiency here and how does that compare to on one side, lithium-ion batteries, but then on the other side, sort of your other competitors in the long duration storage space?

Erik Steimle

So right now, pumped storage is by far the most efficient form of long-duration energy storage. Most pumped storage is somewhere in the 75 to 80% range in round trip efficiency. So very efficient. And one of the differences about pumped storage compared to some other types of energy storage technologies is that we have almost 100 years of projects to draw on globally to prove out that efficiency. But compared to, you know, lithium-ion batteries, certainly there are lithium-ion batteries that have efficiencies above 80%. But in the long-duration storage space, certainly pumped storage is the lowest cost, most efficient of those forms of storage.

David Roberts

Well, what about specifically? Because I guess you'd call this a subset of gravity batteries. I mean, it's using gravity in some sense. So, why move water rather than blocks or sand or, you know, there's all sorts of gravity batteries popping up all over here that lift and drop various things. Did you like assess all those and decide on water or what? How do you think about how those compare with one?

Erik Steimle

Another great question. And we have spent some time, or I've spent some time, listening to some of the other proposals out there for long-duration or gravity storage. And look, I certainly think that there will be other technologies that are developed. Some will probably stay at the pilot stage, even if they're simple forms of gravity storage. And some will move on and be adopted. Rye specifically is set up to pursue new low-impact hydropower and pursue new pumped storage in the US, so we are a team that has a lot of experience in developing new hydropower and we think our niche is pursuing this old technology, but bringing it to the current market in a way that's valuable for utilities, ratepayers in this current environment where we see fossil fuels coming offline, renewables getting added, and a real need for a low-cost, long-life domestic source of energy storage.

David Roberts

I've heard about alternative forms of pumped hydro where you use underground caverns. In other words, you don't find a hill instead for your gravity. You just dig a big shaft, you just dig a big hole. Have you looked into that at all? Is that, or would that, open up sites that are not accessible to this? Like, what's the deal with that type?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, there are some current proposals out there for that. None of Rye's current projects propose underground caverns or more exploratory types of technology or configurations of the reservoir system. Ours are very straightforward. Again, just sort of a simplified upper and lower pond, if you will, that's lined and moving water back and forth. But you are correct, there are other groups looking at smaller scale pump storage, looking at underground storage that wouldn't require the topographic relief.

David Roberts

That would really open up the geography.

Erik Steimle

Correct. Yeah.

David Roberts

If you could do smaller underground.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, there is a group called Quidnet that is specifically looking at underground pump storage and looking at small-scale technology that could be utilized throughout areas like the Midwest, right, where there isn't topographic relief.

David Roberts

The one environmental question I forgot to ask, and I think it's probably obvious, but it's just water, right? Is there anything else in the, in the water?

Erik Steimle

No, it's just a contract for water. And again, you know, typically we are sourcing water from a long-term sustainable source of water on the property itself or a local municipality.

David Roberts

Could you theoretically use like salt water or dirty water, sewage water? Like do you need a particular grade of water?

Erik Steimle

No, you do not. You could certainly use gray water. And there is pumped storage that currently exists. There's a project in Japan that is a saltwater pumped storage project. The lower reservoir for that project is the Pacific Ocean.

David Roberts

Interesting. And one other question about these open ponds: You know, when I threw this out on Bluesky, one question that came back several times was, "Have you thought about integrating any other technologies into this? For instance, putting solar PV over the reservoirs?" You know, there's all this talk about floating PV these days or like covering parking lots, you know, with canopies, solar canopies, integrating solar on site at all. And/or using that giant mass of water as thermal storage for, I don't know, some heat load nearby. Have you thought about integrating other stuff?

Erik Steimle

That's a great, great question. So, we haven't considered the thermal load question that you're asking, but we have taken a look at covering or at least providing some type of solar resource on either one or both of the reservoirs in our project areas. One is an additional on-site source of generation, but two as a way to decrease evaporation. We have two projects that we're looking at now that will likely incorporate floating solar as part of the pumped storage project.

David Roberts

Interesting. Won't that be fun? Do you build in cold climates and if so, what do you do about freezing?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so pumped storage is certainly a resource that is constructed and operates and is quite reliable in cold areas. I mean, you can just point to the Alps in Europe where pumped storage has been the choice of storage for Europe now for 20 some years. I mean, a lot of the new construction of pumped storage has been in Europe and has specifically been in the Alps. When you think about icing or the issues associated with the cold, one thing that's helpful with pumped storage is that you're not retaining water for very long periods of time. You're typically moving water back and forth, you know, every couple of hours or cycling things a couple times a day.

So, it doesn't give the ability, or you don't have some of the typical freeze issues that you would.

David Roberts

I see. Just because the water's in motion more?

Erik Steimle

That's correct.

David Roberts

And so, you mentioned cost and I guess it gets a little devilish here comparing things. It's a little different to know what time horizon, based on power, whatever. So, you say over the lifespan of one of these installations, they are cheaper than any other form of energy storage?

Erik Steimle

Yes.

David Roberts

But they're more expensive up front.

Erik Steimle

That's correct.

David Roberts

In terms of just CapEx, so how big of a challenge is that to your business? Like, do you know what I mean? I'm constantly, when I'm talking with people about clean technologies, running into this, you know, the same shape of dilemma over and over again. Right. More upfront CapEx, savings over time. How do you find the sources of capital that care about that argument, that will hear that argument? Is that a challenge for you?

Erik Steimle

No, it absolutely is, and it is the right question, I think, for pumped storage. And look, you certainly we talked about the long lifespan of the project, 100 plus years. But you don't need 100 years, you don't even need 50 years to make the economic case. Depending on the project, its location, and the needs for storage in a geographic area, to make the case from a cost standpoint for pumped storage. Just to give you some numbers: The US Department of Energy has consistently described pumped storage as the long-duration energy storage technology with one of the lowest levelized costs of storage.

So, the DOE has pegged that between $70 and $170 per megawatt hour. And that's from a report I think in 2023. Rye Development is currently working with another pumped storage developer, rPlus Renewable Energy, to provide an updated analysis for new pumped storage projects that are being proposed across the US.

David Roberts

Yeah, these closed loop, are they going to change the economics substantially? Like are they cheaper? Is it going to be a different economic picture when they come into prominence?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so I mean, just because they have two reservoirs instead of, you know, a project that might just add one upper reservoir, those types of projects do cost more. But we're doing this analysis for Lazard's upcoming 2025 LCOS (Levelized Cost of Energy Storage) report. And what we're finding in the analysis, and of course more to come, is that projects that are slated to begin construction in the next couple of years in the US, so this is pumped storage, both closed loop and open loop, projects that would be online late this decade or in the 2030s, are right within that range that DOE has consistently described for pumped storage.

So, we're talking about projects with a levelized cost of storage in the $70 to $170 per megawatt-hour range. So, you can compare that to lithium-ion and, you know, in some cases, that's more expensive, but in other cases, it's not.

David Roberts

"Well, it sort of depends on how long you're storing in your lithium-ion. Right. Which is what kind of makes these comparisons tricky because in some sense, being the cheapest long-duration storage option is great, but there just aren't a lot of them. You know what I mean? That's not a heated competition, it seems like to me โ€” and this is another question I got off Bluesky a million times, so I'll just ask it straight out โ€” like, it seems like to me what you're worried about is not that electrolyzing hydrogen and then using it to run power plants is ever going to catch up to you cost-wise, you know what I mean?"

Like these other long-duration or like flow batteries, but lithium-ion people used to say, "Oh, it can do up to four hours economically," and then it was six, and then it was eight, and then it was 10. And now, I think people are saying 12. The cost of lithium-ion batteries is only going in one direction. It's just going down, down, down, down, down. And so, it's not just how much does lithium-ion storage cost today, it's how much is lithium-ion storage going to cost in whatever 10 to 12 years when one of these projects is actually built and running.

Like, are you confident it will still be cheaper in a decade? I guess, I guess, even if you're not confident, are the financiers confident that it's going to be, you know what I mean, that lithium ion is not going to catch up even in the sort of 12 to 24 hour world?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, I mean, so that is a great question. I think that for Rye, we're confident that lithium-ion is not the only type of storage that's necessary when we look ahead in the next 15 or 20 years. I mean, there are things that pumped storage can provide, whether you're talking about, you know, black start or specific capabilities during emergency outages, or talking about reliability, resource adequacy, that pumped storage is not even comparable to lithium-ion. But does that mean that pumped storage is always going to be a winner over lithium-ion? Certainly not. And I, I think you can look to certainly the short duration storage projects that have been contracted.

So again, probably talking about two and four-hour projects, lithium-ion is a great storage solution there. But when we're talking about storage for 10, 12, 16 hours or more, and then talking about something that has the ability to cycle again over and over with very little degradation over decades of time, this is a technology that a utility is going to want to have as part of their storage resource stack, if they can have it right, if they have the geology and geography to support this type of project.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's got that sort of infrastructure stability vibe to it. But again, about the timing of storage, I do have some questions. When you look at the website, it talks about its advantages over lithium-ion batteries, specifically its ability to operate in this 12 to 24-hour storage period. However, when you look at the project sites themselves, they're saying that they're going to offer like 8 to 10-hour storage, which is something that lithium-ion batteries could do. So, I guess I'm just curious, in operation, are they going to be operating as short-term batteries? Are they ever in practice actually going to store energy for 20 or 24 hours? Do you know what I mean?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so in operation, these projects could store energy for longer durations of time, for sure. The actual capacity at which you'd operate the project would be less if you were essentially storing or looking at it as a longer duration storage product.

David Roberts

But there's no time limit. It's just water sitting in a pool. So, you could just leave it sitting up there till kingdom come. I mean, theoretically, you could store it forever as long as you wanted to.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, that's correct. The time allotments for storage, like 8 hours, 10 hours, we have a project we're almost done permitting in Washington State, that's 12 hours. Those are based on resource plans or RFPs or market analyses for individual utilities in those geographic areas. What are they interested in? What sets pumped storage apart for them from lithium-ion? What are they interested in? So, it doesn't mean that you couldn't use those projects for longer periods of storage. It's just that's how we've designed the projects because we're essentially in the market of developing something that's valuable for those utilities.

David Roberts

This is something I've run into when talking to other long-duration storage type people, which is that everybody seems extremely convinced that we're going to need long-duration storage. It's sort of like conventional wisdom at this point. But there doesn't really seem to be an extant market for long-duration storage. Nobody's really paying for long-duration storage right now. So all these long-duration storage technologies are kind of having to compete in the short-duration game while they wait for this market to show up. So, I'm just thinking, I guess I'm just wondering if that sounds right to you? Is there, as you look around, a market for storage in the 12 to 24-hour period?

Erik Steimle

That's correct. I mean, I think when you look at utilities that are procuring storage, they're looking to procure short-duration and the easy projects first, and the more complicated or longer-duration projects later. And it's not just that our projects are complicated per se. I mean, again, we're proposing projects that are primarily two artificial ponds on existing brownfield sites, if you will. But as more and more renewables come online and fossil baseload resources retire, long-duration is something that is needed. But you're correct, the market today is pretty shallow.

David Roberts

Yeah, and is that just a limiter on your growth as you see it, or are you sort of trying to persuade utilities to think longer term than that?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, I mean, so we certainly have to compete with batteries, and we are certainly limited in where we can have projects or pursue projects to areas where there are utilities that are forecasting a need for this type of storage or this type of capacity, or have a particular interest in an energy storage resource that is domestic, local, hits certain thresholds for economic development. Look, in comparing job creation, economic development, and domestic jobs specifically, all the way from the manufacturing stage through the four-plus year construction effort for these projects, it's not comparable. There's no lithium-ion project that's comparable.

David Roberts

Right. But if you're an economist, you look at that as a demerit. You can get more storage with less labor with lithium-ion. So, I guess, in economic development terms, if you're trying to sell it to a region, that's attractive. But in market terms, I'm not sure that's so attractive.

Erik Steimle

Well, again, if we can provide a storage resource that is as cheap as or cheaper than something that is comparable in an RFP or a project that is in a particular location that's really valuable to a given utility โ€” I mean, look, the utilities are our customers in this. That's how these projects succeed in comparison to others. But I mean, to your point, it is very competitive and I think the storage market will remain competitive in the years to come.

David Roberts

Yeah, and in terms of how these facilities are meant to make money, it's just arbitrage, right? It's just storing when energy is cheap and generating when energy is expensive. Are there other revenue sources?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so historically, pumped storage did operate and work just on arbitrage. The projects that we have, the most mature ones on the West Coast, are situated to have long-term contracts with utilities. So, a long-term power purchase agreement where they're essentially entering into a tolling type arrangement for a price and can use the facility as they see fit. Pretty similar to any other type of tolling arrangement a battery project, lithium-ion or otherwise, would enter into with a utility.

David Roberts

Got it. And so, one thing that lithium-ion has going for it relative to a bunch of other things is it's small, it comes in very small units, it iterates very rapidly, and it's very modular and replicable, etc. All these sort of characteristics of a technology that tend to induce innovation and thus falling costs. So when I look at a project like this, it's just two pools, two concrete pools and a steel pipe and a generator. On one hand, the benefit of that is those are all very well understood, all relatively cheap, all can be relied on to run for a century or more.

But I guess the downside is, it's hard to see where there's going to be much technical advancement or falling costs. Am I wrong about that? Or do these things pretty much cost as much as they're likely to cost and there's just not a lot of room to bring that down?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, I mean, one of the benefits that pumped storage has is that we certainly understand what the costs are. You know, whether it's steel, concrete, construction, I mean, most of the energy storage that's been developed of utility scale or a large portion of it globally, a lot of that has been pumped storage. Now, we haven't been developing a lot of pumped storage in the US, but elsewhere in the Middle East, Europe, Asia, and others, they have been developing a lot of it in the last 10, 15 years. And so, we fully understand what those costs are. Certainly, there are some costs on the technology side, the turbine equipment that have come down.

But you are right. I mean, this is not a static cost here, but this is something that's well understood, and there isn't an expectation that the prices are going to continue to fall for pumped storage. I would argue that there's lots of individuals and developers that also think that lithium-ion will probably not continue to fall forever as well, given the hard rock mining and supply chain associated with those types of batteries and also competition for their use.

David Roberts

Yeah, well, that's a big multi-billion-dollar gamble. A lot of people would keenly like to know just whether that's true or not.

Erik Steimle

But I think where pumped storage often has its niche is in places, especially in the US, where utilities have existing hydropower or are jealous of neighboring utilities that have existing hydropower, which is of course like the original form of storage. I mean, it is their lowest cost resource, it's carbon-free, and it provides a lot of flexibility. So, you know, if you're looking at the need for storage, wanting some storage diversity, you know, from a cost-benefit scenario, if you are looking longer term, I mean, pumped storage is a really, really valuable resource. You don't have to throw it out and replace it every 20 years.

So, if you're a utility commissioner, I mean, that's something that you identify right away. You know, amongst other things, pumped storage has the lowest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions as well compared to any other type of storage that's currently looked at.

David Roberts

Now, I was going to mention that in the context because this is another thing that comes up when people think about hydro is the methane displaced when you sort of industrialize a river ecosystem. You guys don't have that problem, right? You're just like digging a hole?

Erik Steimle

That's correct.

David Roberts

So the whole methane thing is just not kind of just not an issue for you?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, it's not an issue at all for a waterway like this for closed-loop pumped storage.

David Roberts

But to get back to the cost question, so there's no reason to think that like your fifth project that you build is going to be substantially cheaper than your first project? Like these are relatively predictable and stable costs?

Erik Steimle

That's correct. And that is their benefit. The same thing is that the projects also provide some storage benefits that lithium-ions cannot provide.

David Roberts

And so, let's talk then about a subject that comes up a lot here on Volts, which is the sort of red tape dilemma. You know, I'm sure if you've been following public discussion lately, there's, you know, everybody's got a lot of angst about the fact that it takes forever to build anything. In the US in particular, it's very hard to build big things. There's all these different processes and environmental reviews and approvals and processes, etc., etc., etc. I'm just guessing, knowing none of the details, I'm guessing that a very large project like this involves a whole heck of a lot of that.

So, maybe you could just sort of describe what the bureaucratic journey is and how long does it take? Like, from the moment you sort of identified the Lewis Ridge Mine โ€” you're like, "I want to build there", what is the process and how long does it take?

Erik Steimle

Yes, from the moment that you conceptualize a project to the time that it could be online and in commercial operation, it is an 8- to 10-year process in the United States. And that is particularly unique to the United States. That's in part why a lot of pumped storage, and currently pumped storage, is being constructed elsewhere in the world. And you know, we have a handful of construction-ready projects in the US, but none have been kicked off.

David Roberts

I'm guessing it's faster in the, in other countries where they โ€” ?

Erik Steimle

Yes, everywhere else in the world, it's faster than in the US. Pumped storage is somewhat disadvantaged compared to other energy storage technologies in the US because it's federally regulated.

David Roberts

That means more red tape, or less.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is responsible for permitting compliance for hydropower.

David Roberts

So you're not messing with state regulators at all?

Erik Steimle

No, some states do have regulations for this type of energy project or energy storage project, but some states don't. It kind of depends on the state. So, as you can imagine, states like California or Washington or other states on the coasts do have a state process in addition to federal. And then, some states have no state process associated with permitting like this. But the federal process in the US for a new pumped storage project, even if it's two artificial ponds on the landscape, is roughly a five-year process in the US.

David Roberts

Maybe this is a tender subject for you, I bet. But these closed-loop projects do not run into a lot of the environmental issues and questions that you run into when you're dealing with rivers and dams, basically. Are they assessed differently, are they assessed separately, or do they end up having to jump through all the same hoops?

Erik Steimle

They are not assessed differently. Despite the fact that, you know, the projects aren't even close to having the types of impacts that would happen if you were building a large dam on, you know, a large river system. They are still assessed the same way. You still have to go through the same process. And that is why it takes so long.

David Roberts

Spell it out a little bit. 8 to 10 years โ€” doing what? Like, doing what? The Lewis Ridge Project is supposed to start in 2027. Like, what has been happening in those 8 to 10 years?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so the Lewis Ridge Project is a particularly interesting project because the project was able to win a Department of Energy grant, so $81 million. The purpose of that grant, in part, is to expedite the period of time between the conceptual idea of the project and not just startup construction, but COD. It is recognizing that the US is unique; this process is slow.

David Roberts

How does money help? Like, you still gotta โ€” are you just paying for tests and things like that?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so typically, why it takes pumped storage so long is that a developer will work through the four to five-year permitting process before it invests a lot of the large dollar amounts to get the project construction ready. And so, you're looking at a four to five-year permitting timeframe and then a four to five-year period of time after permitting before the project comes online and is commercially viable.

David Roberts

But why, Erik, what's happening? What's going on in those โ€” demystify this for me. What's going on in those five years? Who is doing what?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, the federal permitting process requires layers and layers of public meetings, agency meetings, applications, and information that you provide and then also put out there for public review. It starts at a conceptual level and then it builds over time where there's feedback loops over a series of years on the various types of studies that you need to do. Now, for a closed-loop project on a brownfield site, you may not need to do any of the usual studies associated with building a new hydropower project, but the timelines and the process for engagement still apply. So that's why it takes longer here than anywhere else. So, on the positive side of that โ€” if there is one to talk about โ€” the process is so long and comprehensive and requires some of the public input that you know, you have a community project or a project that community โ€”

David Roberts

For God's sake, after 10 years, I would hope you would at least have certainty that you can build your project!

Erik Steimle

Yeah. So, there has been policy reform afoot in the last Congress โ€” of course, you know, we're in a new year, a new administration โ€” there was an effort to speed up or reduce the permitting timeline for closed-loop pumped storage. Specifically for closed-loop pumped storage and an acknowledgement of how valuable this resource is as a domestic storage resource in the US and its potential to reduce that total permitting timeline to three years. Of course, permitting reform as we know didn't happen in the last Congress, so we'll have to see where we head in the new Congress.

David Roberts

Would you, I mean, there's an element of feelings to all this, but do you feel like you have pretty decent bipartisan support for this? I mean, I'm guessing that just like getting on the radar at all is your main challenge. Like, there's not some anti pumped storage faction out there, is there?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, you're correct. There's bipartisan support not just for pumped storage, but I would say hydropower in general. It is one of those resources that both sides of the aisle understand its value. It's low cost, it's carbon-free in many places. Existing hydro is a defining resource of places where people recreate. So, you know, it's bipartisan if not because it provides flood control and irrigation in addition to electricity. But it's something that has been and will continue to be in many cases the lowest cost on-demand form of carbon-free electricity. And don't underestimate the value of, you know, a local reservoir to a resident and their ability, maybe in the future, to plug their truck into it as their source of fuel.

I mean, it seems funny to say, but it's a valuable concept.

David Roberts

And the jobs too. But just to be clear, like, I always want to clarify this. On these big projects like the Lewis Ridge project you're talking , it says 1,500 jobs for the three or four years that it's being constructed. Right. Like there's a big flood of construction jobs. But if it's just two pools and a pipe carrying water between them, I can't imagine that it is going to require an enormous amount of ongoing jobs. Is it? Like, the jobs are mainly short term? That's not a ding on it, that's not a problem or anything, but that's just the shape of the situation.

There's not going to be tons and tons of ongoing jobs, are there?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, so the number of jobs associated with a permanent operation are right around a couple of dozen for a facility like this. So, you're right, there's not thousands of jobs during long-term operation of the project.

David Roberts

I mean, it's infrastructure. It just, it's supposed to sit there and โ€”

Erik Steimle

Yeah, I mean, but you'll also find that the labor force in places like southeast Kentucky is well equipped to do a lot of the jobs associated with the construction of this type of facility. I mean, this is a large civil project and there are lots of areas where they have a workforce that can essentially be put to work. Right. That is well equipped to begin work on these types of projects. You know, additionally, the longer construction period here is valuable to apprentices and the building trades. You know, attrition is real. And it's harder and harder for the building trades to find projects where they can bring an apprentice in. They can work the entire time on a project.

David Roberts

Right. So, you could, like, study up and become a professional, basically, over the course of this.

Erik Steimle

Correct. While going home to a family each night in the same location, that's pretty valuable for labor.

David Roberts

Well, it seems like a pretty obvious win for the locals. So, I'm just wondering, are you โ€” is the word out? Like, are you getting calls? I mean, given the geographic flexibility of this, you could put it almost anywhere. There are now congested grids all over the place. People need storage all over the place. People are worried about foreign content in batteries, etc. So, it seems like this should be your moment. Do you have a big pipeline?

Erik Steimle

I mean, yes, as I alluded to earlier, there is a large pipeline of proposed pumped storage in the US. I would say that there are lots of municipalities, lots of utilities in the US that are now focused on developing their own pumped storage as part of their storage needs.

David Roberts

Oh, like, as municipal infrastructure.

Erik Steimle

Yes. Yeah. Yes, we do get the occasional call. Of course, there are places that are, you know, looking at the Lewis Ridge project or some of our other projects and saying, "Why don't we have one of those projects here? We have the transmission. We've got a lot of new load demand from data centers. This is the type of storage project we could have. And look at the job creation." So, we do get some of those. But it's certainly not just Rye that's out there in the pumped storage space. There's a lot of new interest in pumped storage in the US.

We're just slightly behind in the US in comparison to other parts of the world that has been adding a lot more storage than we have been.

David Roberts

A familiar story. Okay, well, as a last question, then, I just want to talk about size: what are the size limitations? On one end, how small could one of these things be and still be, like, reasonable, viable to build? Sort of how distributed in small scale could it get? And then on the other side, is there an upper limit, or do we have a good sense yet of the bounds?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, I mean, so there are relatively small pumped storage projects. Rye is focused on pumped storage projects primarily in the 300 to 700 megawatt range, although we do have one that's larger than that. And Lewis Ridge is slightly smaller than that. But we think that that is a, you know, a range where the project makes quite a bit of sense. So we're focused on utilities that have or, you know, and integrating the project in an area where there's a demand for hundreds of megawatts of storage and capacity that this project could accommodate. There are projects that could be sited that are much larger than that.

But again, if you're getting to projects that are 500, 1,000 megawatts or above 1,000 megawatts in size, you're talking about probably multiple utilities that would need to participate in the project. And that can get somewhat more complicated.

David Roberts

I'm guessing like somewhere in China there's the biggest one of these in the world, like is China building behemoth pumped storage?

Erik Steimle

There are definitely new projects that have been built and brought online that are in the thousands of megawatts.

David Roberts

Wow. I wonder what that looks like.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, a lot of those are open-loop systems. But, you know, just to give you an example of size, our project in Washington State, the Goldendale Pumped Storage project, this is a 1200 megawatt, 12-hour project. The largest features are just two 60-acre ponds.

David Roberts

Yeah, we didn't talk about land use, but that's very little land for a lot of capacity there.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, it's a considerable amount of storage and capacity for a region that's capacity short. You know, we're talking about a considerable amount of additional storage that just Washington State, not including the rest of the Pacific Northwest, needs to bring online in the next decade. So yeah, 1200 megawatts, 12 hours of storage, two 60-acre ponds, that's enough storage to provide 12 hours of on-demand electricity to every residence in Seattle.

David Roberts

Wow.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, two 60-acre ponds.

David Roberts

Wow. And one facility. And I'm guessing that, because of the simplicity, you could adjust the size of these relatively easily. Like, you could just make the pools bigger, right?

Erik Steimle

Yeah, you could make pools bigger. You know, other projects, when they've wanted additional storage time, have added an additional upper reservoir over time or contemplated an additional reservoir to provide additional storage time or capacity at the project. So yes, again, these are large civil projects, but they are somewhat simple in that you're essentially just moving water back and forth based on the grid's demand.

David Roberts

Yeah, pretty old school.

Erik Steimle

Yeah.

David Roberts

Well, super fascinating, Erik. I really appreciate you walking us through this. This has been sort of in the corner of my eye for years now. So, I'm glad I finally dug in. And good luck with all your projects.

Erik Steimle

Yeah, thank you so much for your time today.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Assembling diverse resources into super-powered "energy parks"

I'm joined by Eric Gimon to discuss "energy parks" โ€” essentially large-scale microgrids that combine renewable generation, storage, and industrial loads behind a single grid connection. We explore how this model could accelerate clean energy deployment while creating new economic opportunities, despite some complex regulatory hurdles.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Buenos dรญas, everyone. This is Volt for January 15, 2025, "Assembling diverse resources into super-powered 'energy parks'." I'm your host, David Roberts. Most people who follow energy these days are familiar with what are called solar+storage power plants. This is where some solar panels and lithium-ion batteries are co-located together behind a single point of interconnection to the grid. To the grid, they present as a single entity. And itโ€™s a pretty cool entity โ€” it has the generation powers of a solar field and the storage powers of a battery field, in one, like a Voltron!

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Now, imagine some wind turbines, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and flow batteries behind a single point of connection to the grid. That's a bigger Voltron, with more generation and storage powers.

Now, imagine, along with generation and storage, a big energy consumer, a load, joining the fun.

Eric Gimon
Eric Gimon

So, say: solar panels, batteries, and a hydrogen electrolyzer behind a single point of connection. Or: solar panels, thermal batteries (hot rocks!๐Ÿค˜), and a cement plant. Or: solar panels, advanced geothermal, batteries, and a data center. Different Voltrons, all with different sets of powers.

A new paper from the research firm Energy Innovation calls these Voltrons โ€” collections of diverse energy resources behind single points of connection to the grid โ€” "energy parks," which isn't as cool as Voltrons, but supposedly we're "adults" around here, so, fine. The paper argues that energy parks are riding a wave of momentum, with enormous potential to bolster a renewables-heavy grid, but that they face substantial challenges in the form of a legal and regulatory regime designed before they existed.

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This is a subject of intense, geeky fascination for me these days, so I was extremely excited to see the paper and I'm excited today to talk with Eric Gimon, its lead author. We're going to get deep into energy parks โ€” their benefits, their challenges, and what can be done to support them.

With no further ado, Eric Gimon, welcome back to Volts. You're in the small fraternity of returning Volts guests.

Eric Gimon

I feel very honored. Thank you, Dave.

David Roberts

So, let's talk about what an energy park is. I feel like in the energy world here, there's a lot of different ways of clumping resources together and there's a lot of different people experimenting with them and there's a lot of different nomenclature flying around. I think in some sense, the nomenclature is still a little bit kind of up in the air. So, maybe just to start, like, how is what you're talking about as an energy park not just a microgrid, right? It's a collection of resources with a single point of connection to the larger grid. Isn't that just a microgrid?

Eric Gimon

Well, that's a good question. I mean, the short answer is "yes," but the longer answer is: microgrids are typically seen as connected to the distribution system and kind of meant to be these kind of islands, you know, like, would you imagine, like an army base, right, with some generation resources that's kind of managing their needs. An energy park, the way I think about it, is a much bigger scale connected to the transmission system with a strong generation element to them. But you could โ€” you know, Lynne Kiesling calls these microgrids as well. I think it helped to use a term like energy park just to give a sense of the scale and maybe differentiate a little bit.

But a lot of the issues overlap.

David Roberts

Maybe this is a subset of microgrids: large microgrids connected to the transmission system with heavy generation. And I also think of microgrids, I guess, as primarily designed to support the loads that are on them, whereas these energy parks are, I think, doing more than that. But I want to kind of start at the broadest level and then hone in on the specifics. So, I just want to talk a little bit about why chunking is attractive, why people keep sort of gravitating toward it. And by chunking, I just mean grouping resources together and treating them as a single entity.

The main thing that comes up with me, and you sort of touch on this deeper in the paper, is just in a world of renewables and distributed energy resources, there's just going to be a lot more things on the grid, you know, for grid managers to manage. We're going to go from like dozens of power plants to hundreds, thousands, hundreds of thousands of little things. And unless you can chunk them in some ways, you're just going to get a combinatorial explosion that sort of just like exceeds any entity's ability to plan. Does that, is that accurate?

Does that make sense to you?

Eric Gimon

It does make sense to me, Dave. I try not to start talking to people that way about it, but one of our co-authors, Mark and I, have often commented between ourselves that a lot of this looks like what's called object-oriented programming in the computer world, which is a concept that evolved in the 50s and 60s along the lines that you're talking about. Basically, it just gets too complicated to pass everything through. And so, the idea of creating kind of discrete boundaries where all the knitting happens inside and you just pass back and forth the essential information is something that became very important in computer science and it's a way of managing complexity.

And as you said, the grid's getting more complex, so...

David Roberts

It's also called layering, I think, sometimes too. Just like you, you resolve all the complexity at the lower layer, and then it just reports to the layer above it. You know, behaves like a single entity toward the layer above it. So that's part of what's going on here, almost by necessity. Like, we're going to have to do some chunking to simplify things, but there are also more prosaic benefits of doing this. So let's run through a little bit of these. And maybe, you know, I discussed them sort of as though they're theoretical, but there are some energy parks out there to reference.

So, maybe let's just talk through some of the benefits you name, starting with just you can share some equipment. So, maybe say a little bit about that. Like, what can be โ€” if you have an energy park, a bunch of stuff sharing a single point of connection to the grid โ€” what can and can't be kind of shared and economized?

Eric Gimon

Well, one of the early examples we use in the paper is solar and batteries, as you mentioned.

David Roberts

Right. That's kind of the simplest version of this, right? The simplest version of a park.

Eric Gimon

And in that case, one of the simplest things to share is the inverter. Right. The solar comes out DC. The batteries are native DC, so you can flow energy back and forth until you're ready for the power to go out to the AC network, and then you put it through the inverter. And in the old days โ€” I mean, the old days, a couple of years ago.

David Roberts

Things are moving quick these days.

Eric Gimon

Yeah, but, you know, people started realizing that they could save some money by shaving some of the costs on the inverter, by oversizing the DC solar field relative to the equipment to connect to the grid. Usually, it's about 30%. So, if you see a 1 megawatt AC solar farm, that's really a 1.3 megawatt DC setup behind it with a coupled battery at the kind of DC level, you can go to, say, 1.7 or something like that. Right. Because now, instead of wasting any extra power that you get during the middle of the day, you can put it into the battery and then that can go into the AC later.

So, that's an early example of that kind of equipment savings. A more recent example is if you โ€” there's this big park in Oregon not too far from you, the Wheat Ridge Project, and they have solar, they have wind, they have batteries and so on. All these different things are connected at a medium voltage network, and then they all connect to a substation that then bumps that up to high voltage. So again, a lot of the kind of knitting happens at this medium voltage level. And only one piece of equipment is needed to go to the higher voltage.

And you know, that equipment isn't cheap. And also, a lot of equipment is not easily available right now.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, there's a huge supply backup specifically for those transformers, aren't there?

Eric Gimon

Yeah.

David Roberts

And then, you can also โ€” and I think this is more of a financial thing โ€” there's lots of different tax credits, tax savings that you can kind of maximize by putting resources together. Say a little bit about how that works.

Eric Gimon

Well, in the early days, you couldn't get a tax credit on your battery. You could only get a tax credit on your battery if it was considered part of a solar project.

David Roberts

Right. And that changed with IRA.

Eric Gimon

Right, that changed with IRA, right? But that was kind of the early stimulus for mashing the two together, for chunking them, as you say. But then people started realizing that there were a lot of advantages to having them together once they were kind of forced in the same room together. But that, like you said, the tax savings, that changed with IRA. There are other things though. For example, with things like hydrogen, the source of the power is important to whether you call it clean or not. Right. So if you're co-located right next to each other, it's pretty clear to any kindergartner that the power is coming from the clean source.

So, that makes navigating a lot of the tax rules easier. And then there's some tax rules that are given on a production basis versus investment basis. And if you're not putting the power somewhere, you don't get the tax credit. So, if you have a source, a sink right there for any kind of excess power you have, then it's easier to collect that tax credit.

David Roberts

You can maximize your production. And then, what are some of the other benefits? The one that intrigued me here is new abilities. And this gets to kind of the Voltron thing, like, what can resources do together that they can't do alone?

Eric Gimon

Yeah, and that's one of the most enticing elements to picture. So in Colorado, they have a coal fleet that they're retiring, right? And the latest coal plant that they built is the Comanche plant. It's got three units. One of them is retired, one's about to retire, and then the latest one that was built is supposed to retire in 2030. So questions are, "What would you replace with it?" And so I got curious as to how you would replace that plant with an energy park, right? If I went to Pueblo, could I connect a solar field, some wind, maybe some geothermal, with regular batteries, with thermal batteries โ€” which I know you love.

"How would that combination work? And it's quite interesting because I developed kind of an analysis layer by layer, right? And you start out with, say, a target. What would you want this to look like? And say, well, "The easiest target is to make it look like the coal plant that was there before." That may not be the most desirable target, but it's the easiest way to tell the story. Right. "Whatever you can do, I can do." So you start with a bunch of wind and solar and you can produce power when your putative coal plant is producing power, you know, 80% of the time or 70% of the time, right.

And then, the rest of the time, you don't have quite enough. You also have a lot of extra a lot of the time. And so, you have to be able to kind of export the extra. And then you say, "Okay, I'm going to put in a regular battery." So now, you put in a lithium-ion battery and it soaks up some of that extra, means that there's more you can export and it gets you through some of the lulls. But there's still like, if you looked at 2023, there's like an early January week where there was very poor wind and low solar.

So, how do you get through that? Well, if you could just build more wind and solar, right? But if you build more wind and solar, so you have more power in January, say you want to produce an extra 50 megawatts in January, well, you might produce another 500 or 1000 megawatts in the summertime. Right. And so, you need a bigger battery also. Just a lot more stuff there, right? A lot more power than just to go somewhere. And that's where something like a thermal battery becomes really advantageous, right? Because it's a soak for all the extra power.

The more you can soak up renewables in the periods where you have more than you need, the more you can put in and have available when you really need it. And then with the thermal battery, eventually, you can take some of that heat in the battery and put it back through a turbine and actually get something dispatchable. And so you start putting one piece after another in there. And then you start looking at this and you start asking yourself, "Well, this is starting to look pretty dispatchable, right? And maybe I don't even want it to look like a coal plant. Maybe I want this thing to soak up power some of the time when there's lots of wind elsewhere."

David Roberts

I mean, that's kind of the whole point of this. It's better than a coal plant, right? It can do what a coal plant can do and other things.

Eric Gimon

Yeah, it's faster and it can soak up power.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

Which is really useful, right? So, when there's extra on the rest of the grid, it could flow through there. The initial impetus for this is that the people of Pueblo County, where Comanche is, wanted to know, "Well, what about our tax revenue and jobs when this thing goes away?" They're worried that if you just put in some amount of renewables there, it's not the same. So, they went through this whole rigmarole to conclude that they should build an SMR there. I guess that's expensive, so there'll be more taxes and jobs. But the advantage of the energy park with the colocation, right, is you start getting a more and more controllable resource as far as the grid is concerned.

And you're adding more renewables there to kind of have that extra power available to you, the extra energy, and then you're sinking some of that energy through the thermal battery available for like a thermal load. Right. You could run a brewery or a cement plant or feed some to the steel mill that's a couple of miles away. Pretty soon, you start building a portfolio that has a lot more jobs, creating economic development in the area and is a very modular, diverse portfolio of resources there.

Now, that brings you back to the first question you asked, "Well, isn't that what the grid is supposed to do?" Right?

And I think the answer is "yes, but." The grid is expensive, right? You have to build the lines, you have to build the interconnection. It takes time. So, you want to take as much advantage of that infrastructure as possible, right? So, to the extent you can manage some of that complexity locally and provide something that's more singular for the grid operator to deal with, more controllable, that's a big advantage.

David Roberts

Well, also, the grid is slow.

Eric Gimon

That's the other big thing.

David Roberts

Theoretically, private money could build this stuff behind the grid connection really quickly.

Eric Gimon

Well, in Colorado, they're looking at like 10x their rate base to accommodate new data centers.

David Roberts

Good grief.

Eric Gimon

And so, the day our report came out, there was an announcement from Google and Intersect to create a big energy park for data centers.

David Roberts

Interesting. Well, what you hear is, I mean, what all the tech guys are saying is, "Oh, we need nuclear plants because we need always-on steady power." I can't tell how much of that is like, they know something I don't, and how much of that is like they're just new to energy, so they're making a mistake that a lot of people new to energy make, which is that reliability is a net result of a grid, not a particular power plant. So, are we now building energy parks where data centers are going to be supplied by renewables?

Is that happening?

Eric Gimon

Yes, and not only that, it was happening already with Bitcoin mining, which I know, a lot of the audience probably are not big fans of Bitcoin mining, but it is a kind of interesting canary in the coal mine in terms of what can be done. So there are these mining operations that have bought up wind farms and will shut off when the wind farm's not blowing. So they're matching their flexibility with the resource in a very nimble way. That's hard to do with tariffs and other kinds of schemes on the main grid.

David Roberts

Yeah, and it's the exception for data centers to be flexible, isn't it? Like most of them, I guess it's sort of up in the air a little bit right now. I guess there's a lot of people researching this, but most data centers are pretty inflexible, aren't they?

Eric Gimon

It really depends on what they're doing. I'm not an expert on it, but my understanding is that some tasks are kind of like "need to do right now." Some of the learning elements could be kind of managed and moved around between data centers. They're also a source of instability for the grid in the sense that their loads go up and down a lot and can shut off. I think the attraction to things like nuclear baseload resources is the data center people don't want to be in the energy business. They want to be doing what they're good at.

And so, the idea that they have one resource that has all your needs taken care of is kind of attractive. I think a little bit of an illusion, a mirage. Right. I mean, for example, a nuclear plant has to refuel. It usually takes a couple of weeks. So, what's your plan when you're โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah, I've been wondering about that. Like, when your nuke plant goes out, they go out too, if only for maintenance, but they also just trip off sometimes. And like, that's your whole data center. You don't have any remainder.

Eric Gimon

Well, they're โ€” I think most of the ones have some kind of diesel backup.

David Roberts

Oh geez.

Eric Gimon

But if it's out for two weeks, that's two weeks of running diesel, you know.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Eric Gimon

So, they're kind of put out there as this kind of perfect resource, but they're not. And it is kind of interesting though, like FERC had this big conference about colocation and so on. They spent the whole time basically, if not directly, indirectly talking about the case of a nuclear plant, existing nuclear plant, connecting to a data center and ignoring these things. But most of your queue is filled with wind, solar, and batteries.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's crazy.

Eric Gimon

They're just the best resource available.

David Roberts

Like, this is what I want to keep saying about: you can connect an existing nuclear plant to a data center, but you can't do that very many times. That's not a โ€” that can't be the model. Right. Or we're very rapidly going to run out of existing nuclear plants with data centers next to them. And building a new nuclear plant โ€” like, I don't, they just seem to all be talking around this, but it just takes a long time, you cannot โ€” And they're all in a panic to get data centers online. And the disjunct between that and talking about nuclear โ€” just like, I'm not even seeing anybody addressing it.

But we don't want to get down a rabbit hole about this. But, one of the advantages you cite for energy parks is synergies in that they're all sharing the same point of interconnection to the grid. And so, that I kind of want to talk about, like when I, the way I first encountered the notion of colocation was when I talked to Rondo, the heat battery people, right. And you know, so their idea is you build solar. All the solar dumps into the heat battery, the heat battery dumps into the factory and at no point is there any connection to the grid.

Like you know, that's kind of an off-grid energy park, if you will. And then there's, you know, you could do it a different way. You could overbuild your solar and then you could have it where some solar goes into the heat battery and the excess solar goes back onto the grid. But anyway, the whole attraction of that model from Rondo's perspective is you don't have to wait for a grid interconnection. It's a way for renewables to build, build, build without waiting for grid interconnection, which is the big holdup these days. But what you're talking about, these energy parks that you're talking about, are connected to the grid.

So, in a sense, aren't you right back in the interconnection queue? Do you know what I mean? Like, aren't you right back waiting a long time? You know, you've clumped your resources, so in a sense they're all going to get online at once, but they're all as a clump still waiting. So, in a sense, has any individual, one of those resources, gained anything now? They're all sort of in line together, but they're still in line, you know what I mean?

Eric Gimon

Yeah. So, I call that Rondo model a siloed park. So, it's still an energy park, it's just siloed, it's not connected to the grid. Then, we talk about export-only parks where they have enough for their needs and they export, and then you have an export and importing park. So, I thought this siloed model was a great model.

David Roberts

Yeah, I was very captivated by it when he described it to me.

Eric Gimon

But I started digging into it and you realize it's not that viable. There's a couple of problems. Like, so his first project was in Fresno. You know, it's a pretty good solar resource, but you're still getting almost twice as much in the kind of spring, summertime as you are in the wintertime. So, you know, you either have a load that is adapted that way where they're using more heat in the summer or in spring, or you have to oversize your system so that you have what you need in the winter and then, then you have to dump something in the summer.

And I could see that. But we talked about this in our thermal batteries paper that we wrote last year at kind of this end of the spectrum for feeding a battery. And it's still viable.

David Roberts

Well, thermal batteries are pretty cheap. Like, oversizing thermal batteries is less daunting than oversizing lithium-ion, isn't it?

Eric Gimon

Well, it's oversizing the solar field that's starting to cost you. Right. If you have to double the size of the solar field, then your solar energy is twice as expensive. And you know, you're trying to compete with natural gas on its own terms. Right. So, but I'll tell you what I hadn't realized until later, which is that works at a kind of small scale. That project is, you know, a few megawatts. Once you get to the gigawatt scale, you have a financing problem. If you, Dave, are suddenly no longer โ€” become a hopeful capitalist working at Goldman Sachs.

You look at things with your little green visor and pens and you're like, "Hang on, what if the thermal battery part doesn't work out? I don't want to finance your park if there's no other place for the power to go to." So, they need a plan B. And without a plan B, you're not getting financing. And nobody's got the balance sheet to finance a gigawatt of infrastructure. Right. They're going to need to get the money from somewhere else. And so, that's a big barrier to this kind of self-consumption, fully siloed.

David Roberts

So, you just add a connection to the grid. This allows you to export power to the grid when the thermal batteries aren't taking it. And that resolves some financing issues.

Eric Gimon

Right. It also creates this kind of plan B if the thermal battery project falls through.

David Roberts

Right. But then you are waiting like โ€”

Eric Gimon

In the same queue.

David Roberts

Yeah, I guess what I'm trying to get at is an interconnection for a park is basically the same thing as an interconnection for a power plant, isn't it? I.e., you're in the same line, waiting the same amount of time, etc.

Eric Gimon

Well, it doesn't have to be, is the point, right? I mean, if you appreciate the flexibility of these resources, you can put them in the queue in a different way. Already in the queue, there's typically a difference between a dispatchable resource or firm resource and an energy-only resource. Where, "We'll take your energy but we don't guarantee we'll take it." And that creates a lower hurdle for connecting to the grid. So, if I'm only occasionally going to export to the grid and the grid occasionally tells me, "I can't take your power," and it's not a huge source of my revenue

A big part of my revenue is just going to my local load, or I can always send it later because I've got some flexibility. Then, I'm more willing to go into that energy-only queue than the firm connection queue. So, that's already a difference between the energy park and just your plain old generator.

David Roberts

And these distinctions are made by the utility? And are utilities making them now? Do you know what I mean? Like, are energy parks entering queues? I'm just wondering how much of this is going to require some new thinking or new policy on the part of utilities and PUCs.

Eric Gimon

It will require a lot of new thinking on the part of utilities and PUCs, which is why they're not being built in the investor-owned utilities regulated by PUCs. They're being built in munis and co-ops who are much more flexible in their dialogue with the builders. They also get around some of the legal problems that we talk about in the paper in terms of who owns the retail relationship and all these other things. But they can also be much more flexible in how you connect to their grid. There's still the overall balancing authority that might be bigger than that entity that you have to deal with, but they typically do have different processes.

And Texas is basically the best place to do this right now, because the ERCOT system is much more open to this type of arrangement, mostly because of oil and gas.

David Roberts

Are there oil and gas energy parks?

Eric Gimon

Yeah, I mean, all those big refineries and so on tend to have their own generation.

David Roberts

Oh, right.

Eric Gimon

And you know, for a long time now. And so, they are the ones that kind of push for the rules to allow private use networks and things like that back in the day. And it's only now that data centers and other people are starting to kind of get into that zone. But originally, that was kind of their playground. So, we're in this funny space where oil and gas have kind of pushed the envelope for us.

David Roberts

Oh, funny. And this is the Texas "connect and manage." That's what we're talking about, where they just let you on the grid without the long wait, with the proviso that "If we need to, for temporary conditions, we can shut you down or curtail you." Is that the basic idea?

Eric Gimon

Yeah, that's what they call connect and manage there. There are, I think, in some other jurisdictions โ€” I'm not an expert on this part, it's really hard to get a clear understanding of how these rules work โ€” but in other places, you can have a choice too, of the type of connection you want. Like in California, I think. But typically in California, in order to get some of the credits you need, like resource adequacy and so on, you need the first kind of service, the dispatchable one. So people don't necessarily go that route. But yeah, it's a whole rabbit warren of different rules and so on.

And one thing I discovered, kind of diagnosed into this, is that even just plain batteries are suffering from this. Batteries are being built in Texas and in California, but, like, batteries aren't being built in MISO. They had something like 20 gigawatts in the queue and none of it, like, hardly any of it went through. Like, they got their assigned, "This is what you need to do." And then they were like, "Oh, well, we're not doing that." Because of the way the rules are being crafted for them to connect, I wouldn't go too much into it because I don't know a lot about it.

But I do know that basically that's prevented the batteries from being built in the MISO system.

David Roberts

Interesting. And presumably, would also prevent energy parks if they're...?

Eric Gimon

Right. And so, I think where it starts is with the munis, co-ops, public power, and that brings a lot of โ€” not only do you get the generation, but you get the economic development that comes with it. I'll give you an example. This is not an energy park, but it's adjacent. There's a startup ammonia company, green ammonia company, called Talus, and they have a project in the Midwest where they buy power directly from a muni co-op, but they're willing to be flexible about their consumption. So, they're running like 50% of the time, but they're able to get a cheap price, which is the reason you would connect to an energy park similarly.

And that's only available to them a) because it's a muni co-op, but two, the muni co-op kind of wants them there because they're making a product, you know, ammonia for fertilizer, that a lot of their members use.

David Roberts

Right, right.

Eric Gimon

So, it's advantageous to their community and so on. I guess the way I see the story is, you see these energy parks happening in Texas where the muni co-ops are, and maybe in other places, and then other states, other places want some of that. The other reason why other states might start looking at this a little bit with more interest and so start changing the rules to attract them, is it's a lot of capital to build out for these new data parks. Right. So, if you want to build 10, 20 gigawatts worth in Colorado, you're going to have to build a lot of transmission, distribution infrastructure that's going into the rate base.

And then, if you're a Colorado customer, that's putting a lot of risk on you. These are long-lived assets. But what happens if the data centers don't use them? You know, something happens to data centers or AI becomes less attractive or more expensive, or they just decide to become more flexible, use less energy. And you made an agreement with them that's based on kind of how much energy they use. Right. So suddenly now you're not getting as much revenue. There's a lot of risk around that. I mean, just generally, if I have a $10 billion rate base and now the utility is coming to me with proposals for $50 or $100 billion more of investment, you know, it's a big gulp, right?

So, if there's a possibility that some of that investment risk can be pushed back onto the utilities and these new customers, either directly in an energy park or some kind of arrangement where the customers pay for some of the infrastructure, which is basically kind of scaling up the energy park context to the grid. But, I think that is another reason. So, the kind of carrot is the ability to attract interesting economic activity to your region, your state, and your territory. And then, the stick is when some of that comes in a very concentrated way, this is a way to manage some of the risk.

David Roberts

Well, you list three broad challenges. It's funny, I went into this very geeked about energy parks, even though I didn't know that term existed, but just co-located resources, super geeked about them. And then I read the paper about all the challenges and by the end of it, I was like, "Geez, this is, this is โ€”"

Eric Gimon

Why bother?

David Roberts

I know exactly. Like, this is so much more difficult than I appreciated.

Eric Gimon

Let's just touch on "why bother" a little bit before I talk about those barriers.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Eric Gimon

I kind of got into this for a couple of weird, geeky reasons that you might appreciate. One reason was we need flexible loads. We need flexible loads and not just on the margin, flexible loads, things that can change their consumption by 10, 20% from one year to the next. Why do we need those? Because we're moving from a system with fuel where the fuel is the opportunity cost to a system with all capital. In California where I live, 10% of the electricity comes from California hydro. But some years we get 15% of our electricity from hydro, some years we get 5%.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

So, it goes up and down, and that creates a supply and demand imbalance. Now, what happens when we are down to 5%? Well, the gas covers it. And what does that mean? It's not like we roll in the little gas generators. The gas generators are there, but we have the pipelines to bring fuel into the state. And why is the fuel available some years and then when we don't need it, we don't take it and it's still available the next time? It's because it's in a larger market, right? Where other people might use the fuel. And that market's regulated by prices and so on.

And so, that allows us to manage that supply balance. So, maybe the price of electricity goes up a bit on a low hydro year, but we still get it. Now, imagine that we live in a world where we're trying not to burn gas.

David Roberts

Well, this is why all the models have storage. Right? I mean, this is why they all say we need long-duration storage because you pull gas out of that mix and if you don't incorporate a bunch of flexible load, then the only really other answer is a crapload of storage.

Eric Gimon

Well, it can only do so much, right? Like, you can't afford to store power for three years.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

I mean, even if you had dirt cheap storage, you have to finance it. Who's going to finance an asset that only gets used every three years? How do you even know how reliable the revenue models are, or the operational models are, and so on? So, you really need something else. And the something else is things that soak up power. You're really into electrolysis for cement and all these things. Well, that's a way to soak up power. You can imagine making more or less cement, or more or less steel, or more or less hydrogen in California based on the price of electricity.

So, having these other sectors that can adjust their consumption is really key.

David Roberts

Yeah, this, to me, is a big, fascinating, unsettled area of exploration in the next few years, I feel like. How much of the industry can be flexible load? Right. Because the conventional wisdom is the industry needs 24/7 power. But I think my impression is when people get in and start really looking, you find more flexibility than you think, generally.

Eric Gimon

Well, it's a really interesting topic, but I think in the hour we have, I don't think I can touch on it too much. It's just to say that to the extent that there are those flexible industries, I thought to myself, I think a lot of them would work well in an energy park. There'll be new loads and their whole model is to use the cheapest power. Right? Otherwise, why bother being flexible, right? And so they're going to be flexible. They want the cheapest power. The way to get that cheap power is to be right next to where it's made.

Right? So, it's the kind of marriage made in heaven.

David Roberts

Maybe this is obvious, but I'll just point it out anyway. The reason that power is so cheap is that, you know, I think regular Volts listeners will know this, like what they call the "busbar power" of renewables, which is like the cost of generating on site is lower and lower and lower just because renewables are getting cheap. But the price of delivered electricity is rising because of T&D costs, transmission and distribution costs. So if you're sitting right next to it and you don't need any transmission and distribution solution, you're getting that sort of raw busbar price, which is cheaper than any other power available anywhere, as far as I know, right?

Eric Gimon

I think there are two elements to it. So that's one element. The other element is if you think about the power coming out of a wind farm in Texas or whatever, at first you think of it as all the same, right? But power that I'm generating during the big heat wave, you know, demand spikes in Houston, that's valuable power. And power that I'm generating in the spring when all the wind farms are all going like mad and nobody really needs the power, that's not that valuable, right? So, you can start sorting the power that comes out of your project into a kind of less valuable, more valuable stuff.

And if you're right near the project, you can kind of feed off that low-value stuff, right? And then the project can export the high-value stuff to the grid. And so, that ability to kind of sort to create this kind of filter between the low and the high value right there on site is important. And then that goes hand in hand with the T&D, right? If your average wholesale busbar power is really dropping, right? If you're getting really smart about when you consume power so that the price you can get that power is down to like $10, $20 a megawatt hour, you definitely don't want to pay an extra 20 or 2 cents a kilowatt hour or whatever for the T&D.

I mean, you just doubled your cost again, right? So, as you become more and more of a price hunter, you become more and more sensitive to the transmission and distribution adder to your supply, right? And so, to talk about the opportunity, right? So, we want these flexible loads and this is a good place for them to appear. And then, how much do we want? Well, if you look at the industry, if you want to replace things like cement and steel and all these things with, and then process heat with electricity, you're talking about a lot of electricity, right?

Like easily double how much we use today. And we're having trouble getting the wind and solar onto the system, right? So, if there's a way to like get it on, or at least some of it on without incurring a lot of extra cost, that's really attractive, right? So, that's really the opportunity. That's the reason I put a lot of effort into this report and thinking about it, right? Which is, even though there's barriers, I see this as like an essential element to where we want to get to reaching our climate goals.

David Roberts

Yeah, but this is like, the speed thing is something I come back to. It does take a long time to get an interconnection, but if you jump in an energy park, you're still waiting for the interconnection, aren't you? I mean, you're all waiting for it together, but you're still waiting for it. The speed thing is something I come back to.

Like, it does take a long time to get an interconnection, but if you jump in an energy park, you're still waiting for the interconnection, aren't you? I mean, you're all waiting for it together, but you're still waiting for it.

Eric Gimon

"Well, yeah, so that's a good question. And you know, there's no simple answer there, Dave. I mean, at one level, I gave you one answer, which is you can kind of downgrade the type of connection you have, right? And so that speeds your access to the grid. At another level, you can imagine maybe you negotiate for a smaller connection. Now that doesn't satisfy your Goldman Sachs banker too much because now your plan B is eroding. But maybe you tell them, "Look, my plan B is to have at least this much, and then if really things fall through, I'll scale up, I'll get a bigger transformer or whatever. But for now, that covers some of your risk."

So now, it's not about zeros and ones. Is it connected? Is it not connected? It's kind of, how much is it connected? And then, how much credit can I get with the utility, with the grid operator for that so that I can get on faster?

David Roberts

Right. Is there any prospect of utilities distinguishing โ€” because, you know, one of the things I wanted to say earlier is we lack good terminology for this stuff, like the entity that is the energy park. We have the same problem when we talk about virtual power plants, right? Like, they're not just producing power, they can also store power, they can also shift power. So whatever that entity is, that can do all those things, we do not have a good word for that entity. Right? We keep saying power plant, but that makes us think about just generation.

But these things can do more than generation. Like I said, they're Voltrons. They have all these different kinds of powers beyond what a normal power plant can have. So, is there any prospect for utilities prioritizing people waiting in the queue based on the powers of the entity being connected? Do you know what I mean? Like, could these things get bumped up in line because they are so helpful for the grid?

Eric Gimon

Yes, but it's tricky because right now, people are making those arguments in order to get more gas online. They're trying to get gas to skip the queue because everybody's convinced that gas is the be-all and end-all of useful resources. But I agree with you that there should be some advantage to that or some recognition of the dispatchability of these things.

David Roberts

Right. Because now you're describing, when we were talking about the challenges, the three buckets of challenges to these things, the first bucket is just the rules for connecting to the grid. And the way you describe it, like, right now the rules for connecting a generator are different than the rules for connecting a storage mechanism. Like, and so right now, connecting an energy park almost seems vastly more complicated and uncertain than connecting the constituent parts. Just because there are rules governing the constituent parts and there don't seem to be yet rules for governing the collective entity. Who makes those rules?

Like, who solves this problem? Is this something legislators can get involved in? Or is this something PUCs need to do? Or is this something utilities are basically going to have to do on their own?

Eric Gimon

Well, to some extent, this has been solved in singular cases like Alcoa, which is a big producer of aluminum. They own generation as well, coal plants that feed their mills. So there's one in Indiana, for example. And they've come to some arrangements with utilities already. A lot of that tends to be bespoke and kind of hard to get a lot of information about. At least, I found it so. And then, CHP is a bit similar.

David Roberts

Combined heat and power.

Eric Gimon

Combined heat and power. Let me lay out the land a little bit, and then I can get into it a little bit more. So, there are three kinds of centers of difficulty: One center that we kind of touched on here is just how does the grid talk to you? And how does the grid bill you?

David Roberts

Right. What are you to the grid?

Eric Gimon

What are you to the grid? Right. Because as far as the grid is concerned, today, a generator and a load are treated completely differently.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Eric Gimon

They go through different processes; they're charged with โ€” they're responsible for different kinds of expenses and so on. So now you mix the two. It's a bit complicated. Say you got beyond that. There's still like, ultimately, you have to decide what is the service being delivered to the grid and from the grid. And we're used to thinking about all these services tied volumetrically to kind of how much electricity you consume. So if I consume this much, I'm using this much services. If I consume 1,000 times more electricity, I'm using about 1,000 times more services. And so everything's kind of scaled.

It goes into the cost of electricity. But suppose you have something like a thousand gigawatt facility that hardly ever consumes power. Maybe it consumes like 50 megawatts every once in a while to kind of help fill up the battery.

David Roberts

Because most of its generation is on-site.

Eric Gimon

Because most of its generation is on-site. But if something goes wrong, it might suddenly want 500 megawatts.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

But very, very rarely will that happen. That's still a service you're providing.

David Roberts

Yeah. What is that?

Eric Gimon

But it's not tied to their annual consumption. So, what is that, like backup? Right, it's like a backup. So, like in New York, combined heat and power, they pay for that backup. And I think the big grid operators, ISOs, are still struggling to understand this. If you look at what's being debated in these FERC proceedings, it's very early days. There's not even recognition of existing arrangements, much less an effort to kind of very thoughtfully develop new rules, you know. And that's going to take time and that's why reports like this one are important, because you have to prime the pump.

David Roberts

FERC just did this whole thing, didn't it, on co-location? I mean, what was the point of that if not โ€”?

Eric Gimon

They never talked about new energy sources like wind, solar, and batteries. You know, they were mostly focused on existing generation. And you know, one speaker mentions โ€”

David Roberts

Like a missed opportunity.

Eric Gimon

Yeah, a big missed opportunity. One speaker talked about the experience in Kentucky with combined heat and power or whatever, and they just kind of ignored them. They just went right back. They were basically all talking about this Pennsylvania deal between the nuclear plant and Microsoft, while at the same time being constantly told that they shouldn't talk about it. This is what triggered the conference. Right. They shouldn't talk about it because it's an active proceeding.

It was kind of funny in a sad way. So, that's one pillar of issues. And Texas has done a good job because they're not regulated by FERC.

David Roberts

I mean, is the desired outcome here that FERC settles some of this, sets up common rules for energy parks? I mean, is that what you would like to see happen?

Eric Gimon

It'll have to be some combination of FERC and the states, because there's just too much overlap in kind of jurisdictions.

David Roberts

Yeah, this is another thing. It's like if you're connecting these to the transmission grid, right? You have a combination of local energy, which is state jurisdiction. And then if you're connecting to the transmission grid, that puts you under FERC jurisdiction. So, you have multiple jurisdictions here too, right?

Eric Gimon

Right. So, Texas is all one jurisdiction.

David Roberts

Yes, that's true. Texas doesn't have to worry about that.

Eric Gimon

And they have a set of rules called "private use networks," inspired by oil and gas, that allow you to net your metering. Not net-metering like with solar, where you do it over a year in each interval. But even that's like a contested approach elsewhere. They're like, "No, no, you can't look at the actual flow through the interconnection. If you have a load back there, it's like any other load, it needs to pay all these other stuff."

David Roberts

Right. If every constituent part of your energy park has to obey all the rules applying to that kind of thing, you're not gaining anything by clumping them together anymore. You're just clumping together a bunch of individual problems into a mega problem.

Eric Gimon

Exactly. Yeah.

David Roberts

So, we need some sort of rules that standardize how grids treat these things.

Eric Gimon

Right. And those rules have to be fair both to the energy park or people won't build them, and to everybody else so that these large consumers don't take advantage of everyone. Typically, large consumers do because they're just a loud voice in any hearing, right? Whereas, most of us individual consumers aren't. So, there's a lot of mistrust.

David Roberts

So, that's some combination of FERC and state legislators, state PUCs?

Eric Gimon

State legislators to some extent, especially with some of the siting stuff, but also just the grid operators. Some of the grid operators are regulated by FERC because some are just vertically integrated. And so, a lot of what they do is regulated by the state they're in.

David Roberts

Well, that's a tangle. And then the second bucket is a whole separate tangle, which is if an energy park is located in a deregulated area, a wholesale market, it might want to participate in that wholesale market as a singular entity. But then you run into a very similar problem you get with the grid connection thing, which is there are wholesale market rules for generation assets, separate rules for storage, separate rules for loads. And once you clump these things together, how do they interact with wholesale markets? Is there an answer to that question, or is that entirely TBD?

Eric Gimon

There is an answer to that, to some extent, because some of these arrangements already exist, right? Like the power plant that serves Alcoa in Indiana also exports to the grid.

David Roberts

Are all extant arrangements like this bespoke? I mean, are they all one-off, basically?

Eric Gimon

I'm not sure, Dave. That's a little bit outside my expertise. I mean, I've tried to get an answer to that, and I have not found โ€” even for a lot of the stuff I learned about Texas, I had to buy stuff from some law library to get the details. You know, as soon as you're dealing with industrial stuff, it's a lot less transparent.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Eric Gimon

And then, with batteries, that's interesting. How do they deal with this hybrid thing? Basically, FERC decided that they were negative generation.

David Roberts

Negative generation.

Eric Gimon

And so, everything they do is treated as generation, whether they're drawing from the grid or giving to the grid. But that has caused problems because you can treat them as a market participant, as a kind of negative generation. But as something that you interconnect, the utilities are kind of scrutinizing things a little bit more. They're like, "Well, what does it mean that you're negative generation? Like, where is your power coming from and when and how is it coming? How's that going to affect our wires?" And if you're a storage person, you're not buying your power from a specific thing, the whole model is that you're buying cheap power from whoever when there's extra.

Right. So, that creates a big tension in the interconnection process. That's what slowed things down in MISO. And ultimately, it's because we've kind of tried to cheat our way through this problem of "What's load? What's generation?" by taking this asset and putting it all into the generation side.

David Roberts

Yeah, that doesn't seem like it's going to last. Like, more and more, you're going to get these chunks that do generation and storage. Like, we don't have a word for that yet. And we clearly don't have an interconnection category for it yet. And we don't seem to have a wholesale market category for it yet either.

Eric Gimon

Yeah, I mean, I'll give you a simple example there. Suppose I want to do long-duration storage with hydrogen. Right. So, I call this thing a long-duration storage unit. It takes power, converts it to hydrogen, puts it into some cavern, and then when I need power back, it goes through a fuel cell or a turbine back. Okay. Simple as you can imagine, that's storage. Now, suppose I say, "Yeah, but sometimes I made too much hydrogen for what I need and my cavern's getting kind of full, I want to be able to sell it off. Or sometimes I didn't make enough hydrogen, my cavern's not full enough, I want to buy some."

Right. So, suddenly, that middle component is in a different market. And now, the electricity that was always for resale โ€” the reason you put storage back into this wholesale bucket is you're like, "Well, you're not actually selling the power for resale. It's all going back to the grid." Now, some of it is going into hydrogen, which might go somewhere else. So, your whole category falls apart.

David Roberts

Yeah, we just do not have good categories for these things. Well, I mean, who solves this wholesale market problem that's even more fragmented than the grid interconnection problem, it seems like? I mean, is this the ISOs that figure out how to solve this?

Eric Gimon

Well, I'm going to spend a lot of my time in the next year or so, talking to ISOs, among others, about whether they should solve this problem, why they should be motivated to. To some extent, it's being solved at a smaller scale in Texas, in munis and co-ops across the US, in other countries, and so on. So, we'll get more and more operational experience on how this stuff works.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

That hopefully will make it easier to think about how the rules work. But I think there's a big reluctance. The utilities see this the same way they see kind of distributed solar. Right. You're stealing customers. It's really when they start seeing that, "Well, these guys will go somewhere else and you're leaving money on the table." Maybe they'll be a little bit more interested in working with the ISOs, with their regulators and so on to find provisions.

David Roberts

Yeah, that does not sound like a rapid process. It does not sound like the kind of thing we will do quickly, unfortunately.

Eric Gimon

Well, I mean, the good thing is everybody and their dog wants to build the AI stuff as fast as possible. Right? So that will crack the whip. And then the reason I care is less about AI, it's more about, you know, power for electrolyzers and so on. And that's going to happen over decades. Right? I mean, the Rondo folks are going as fast as they can, but they still only have one project on the ground, right, still. So it's about kind of, I see like my role as like those guys that like sweep the ice in front of a curling thing. Right.

David Roberts

What are those guys?

Eric Gimon

Like help. Help the thing get to the target.

David Roberts

The third bucket of problems. So, you have these grid interconnection rules, which are not. We don't really have a category for these hybrids, these energy parks. You have wholesale market participation rules, which again, we don't really yet have for these energy parks, at least not beyond sort of bespoke arrangements. And then third, you have something which I was thinking about a lot when I was reading about this, which is that you have the whole question of "What is, what are the limits of the monopoly franchise?" basically. Like, who has a monopoly on what? And it looks like if you have a big enough energy park where you've got generators and batteries and loads and they're all connected with wires, it looks a lot like you are acting like a mini utility.

Right. But you can't legally do that. So, describe the confusion here and then again, like who could resolve it? Who is the agent who could tell us how to get past this?

Eric Gimon

Well, there's two parts to that, right? I mean, you touched on the sales part. There are rules about who can sell electricity in a given state, right? So, who has the right to sell to any load? You kind of have to get around that. And one way to get around that is to be both the generator and the load, co-ownership, right? Because then you're not selling to anybody. You're just using your own stuff. And the other way is to do what's called "sleeving," where you have a friendly utility or retail energy provider, somebody that's allowed to sell electricity, and they take a little cut on top and they manage that transaction for you.

Both of those things happen. Then, the other component is the poles and wires. And that was kind of interesting to me. That gets into the legal part of it.

David Roberts

This is something microgrids run up against, right? Like, you're not allowed to run a wire across a public right of way unless you are a utility. As I understand it, that's the main problem.

Eric Gimon

It's more like, what is a utility? So, pretty much anybody who has these poles and wires becomes a utility. And then there are exemptions. And what's interesting, I didn't realize there's an exemption for generators. So, like, you could own a wind farm in East Washington and run a wire all the way to Seattle and plug it into the grid there, and all those wires are called Gen-Tie, and you are allowed to own that and run it, and you're not violating the franchise.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Eric Gimon

That's a stated exemption in the law. But then, the minute you draw that power to, you know, run a pizzeria or whatever, the exemption's out the window. So that's the tricky bit.

David Roberts

Well, couldn't you just say you're running your wire from the wind turbine to the grid, you know, through the pizzeria, but it's still basically the same thing. Like, is that just a matter of interpretation, or is there...?

Eric Gimon

So, that's come up in legal cases in Texas with oil and gas units; it's been interpreted pretty strictly.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting.

Eric Gimon

So, that's why you again go to the co-ops and munis. They provide you the sleeving deal and they're willing to let you do what you want with the poles and wires because it's their territory or they can own it โ€” or I don't know how the legal bit of it works, but they make that part work for you.

David Roberts

Right. And so, presumably, you don't want for every energy park to literally have to become a utility. I don't even know what that involves, but I'm guessing it's not fast.

Eric Gimon

What you want, it's not even necessarily available. What you want is to create a set of rules that make sense for this kind of arrangement. Now, I've shown you all kinds of problems.

David Roberts

Who makes those rules from who?

Eric Gimon

Well, so I got interested in, like, how do you get consensus building around this, right? And I talked to a professor at MIT, Professor Susskind, who does a lot of work on siting. You know, I first talked to him about it, he's like, "Oh, siting's a nightmare. And now you want to make it like ten times the nightmare." Then we talked a little bit longer and he was like, his way of dealing with a siting is to kind of create state-level rules that require people to go through a kind of mediated process that brings in the local government and so on.

And it takes place over six months. But it's kind of one of those, like, "If you want to go far, travel together, if you want to go fast, travel alone" type things. Right. Like, if you have the right stakeholders in the room and you have a set time limit, you can actually build stuff faster than you thought.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Gimon

And he's saying that a lot of people's impulse to try to kind of run roughshod over local concerns, to try to build as fast as we can, is misdirected.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Eric Gimon

That we need just better consensus building. And apparently, there's some kind of process like that in New York. I hadn't found out more about it. And so, talking to him, I was like, "Well, what if there were kind of special zones that were set up for these energy parks that not only helped get around some of these utility rules and who could own what, but also brought in some of this consensus building, siting stuff." Right. So there's a kind of carrot and the stick, where the carrot is. You get to go around some of these rules that are a pain in the ass, the stick.

But, you need to do something for us, and that's like a better consultative process with the local community and benefits agreements and so on. And maybe, if you can, sometimes if you take a whole lot of intractable problems and you deal with them together, you can get to a solution where you can't with things alone. So, that's my Pollyanna vision.

David Roberts

Well, I mean, part of becoming a utility, I mean, it's not just that you get legal permission to string the wires. It comes with a lot of legal accountability too.

Eric Gimon

You don't have to become a utility to get various exemptions. Right. I mean, like PURPA gives you exemptions for smaller renewable projects. Combined heat and power gets exemptions. Like, you can create new laws.

David Roberts

So if I'm like in the energy park and there's a failure related to wires, I want to sue someone, who am I suing? You know what I mean?

Eric Gimon

If you run wires from Eastern Washington to your pizzeria in Seattle with a Gen-Tie line, you also have those issues. So presumably, some of that's not inherent to the problem.

David Roberts

Right, right. I can't believe we're over time already.

Eric Gimon

Yes, sorry.

David Roberts

There's, as I was saying, so much to this. The model of chunking resources to me just conceptually makes so much sense just in operational terms, just on the computer science terms you were discussing earlier. But then, the minute you scratch the surface, these energy parks engage every different kind of rule, every different layer of jurisdiction, every different ruling authority. And it's not even clear where the lines between them are. It's just such a tangle trying to figure out howโ€”

Eric Gimon

But people are solving this, Dave. I mean, I don't want to leave people with a very negative view. The day our report came out, there was this announcement with Google and Intersect in Texas again. But you know, they're talking about tens of billions worth of, I don't know exactly, I think it was maybe 3 gigawatts. I mean big, big projects. Presumably, they'll be working in muni co-op or monopoly utility territory inside Texas, I assume.

David Roberts

But yeah, I mean, you'd like to see it spread beyond Texas. You'd like to see it spread beyond just the sort of giants who have the wherewithal and money to make bespoke agreements with their states. You'd like to have an off-the-shelf model where you could get people experimenting with different forms of these different combinations of resources.

Eric Gimon

Couldn't agree more.

David Roberts

Different ways of operating, like you, need rules of the road so people can do this.

Eric Gimon

But my experience talking to policymakers is they're very loath to do anything without very concrete examples in front of them. So, I think we're very lucky that we have things like Rondo that are doing the siloed version, that we have these projects in Texas that we have.

David Roberts

Are there international models to look to?

Eric Gimon

Oh, yeah. I mean, look at what's happening in Western Australia.

David Roberts

I mean, is there a grid that solved this in terms of the rules of the road?

Eric Gimon

Well, I mean a lot of it is in Texas, like I told you, but even elsewhere it's just less complicated. I mean, in Western Australia, they're setting up 30 gigawatts, they just upped it to 50 gigawatts, a local transmission grid to feed the mines. I mean it's an energy park on a huge scale. But yeah, it's going to be bigger than the rest of the Australian grid.

David Roberts

No kidding. I guess, by way of wrapping up, I mean, there's a, you know, like we've barely scratched the surface. Like there's so many more different kinds of rules you bump up against here. But I think we've conveyed the larger point, which is just that policymakers at every level need to be aware of these things and engaging in these processes for trying to make them easier. But just maybe, by way of wrapping up, describe sort of, you don't get to this toward the very end. This is a little bit of the kind of utopian stuff that I love.

But, like, describe the universal participation model. Like this, it seems like what we would want in the end is something like what we've set up with the Internet. Which is just, you have certain protocols and then you have universal access, basically. Like, if you obey the protocol, you can connect to the network and, you know, all the good and bad that's about the Internet as a result of that. But, like, it seems like you want something similar for the grid, no?

Eric Gimon

Yeah, exactly. I mean, going back to what we were talking about with layers, right? We want to be able to create rules for the layers. And part of what we're advocating for is those rules will have to become agnostic as to whether you're importing or exporting power through the layer, right? Now, we evolved from a world where you made power in these big, clunky, steam turbine-driven power plants, sent them over wires through distribution networks to people, right? And now, people can make power at their home, people can make power anywhere. And that you can move the generation, it's sensible to move some of the consumption closer to the generation.

And so, that arrangement doesn't make sense anymore. And the universal participation model is kind of one way to talk about how you would make sense of this. It's not just breaking that generation consumption layer, it's also breaking the idea of like a single resource at the interconnection point, right?

David Roberts

Yeah.

Eric Gimon

The complexity is going up. We need to be able to manage at a layer without knowing too much about what's going on behind the layer. And there's a control freak side to system operators, which is completely understandable, where they really want to know exactly what's going on because their job's on the line. And so we have to move away from that. And I call that a paradigm shift. My co-author, Michael, really got on my case. He felt like "paradigm" was too grand. But to me, it really is, and I know Mark agrees. I shouldn't be airing our laundry here on the podcast, but I really think there's a fundamental shift there.

David Roberts

Well, this is stuff I discussed with Lorenzo Kristov about layered grids and โ€” the microgrid people, I'm sure, listening have been wrestling with all of this for a long time. Like, in terms of chunking, like, if you, as a large grid, let's say you've got an energy park and it's got a single point of connection to the larger grid, and it's sort of what the park is doing is summarizing all that internal complexity and presenting kind of a single number. Right. "We need X power, or we have X power available for export." If the people who run the larger grid are going to be content with that arrangement, there need to be some pretty clear rules and accountability on the energy park that they're doing that accurately.

Right. Like, that's, I think, the concern you're getting at. Like, if you're asking the grid operators to lose a little visibility at the local level, they need to have a lot of trust that the local level is operating properly and accurately.

Eric Gimon

That's true, and there needs to be certain guarantees. On the other hand, the advantage of going to a lot of variable generation, right, is the grid has to deal with things kind of coming on and off, not always on their schedule.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Eric Gimon

And so, if they have processes for that, they'll have processes for some of these energy parks not quite doing what they need to in real time, and then they can penalize them later. It's about gaining trust, you know, gaining experience, gaining trust over time. It's not going to happen overnight, but we need to do a lot of this over the next 20, 30 years. So, we got to get started.

David Roberts

And I mean, if they wanted, like whatever 3x our power demand in the next five years, they really need to get moving. It's sort of fun. Like, on the one hand, I find AI annoying and bitcoin and all the rest of it, but on the other hand, like, it has really come along and put a giant jet engine behind everything that clean energy people want to do. Right. Like, nobody's ignoring this anymore. This is, you know, it's one thing for some little solar company to come knock on your door as a member of Congress, but then, like, once Google shows up with a giant sack of money, like, then, you know, things really start moving.

Eric Gimon

Exactly. I mean, at first, I was kind of resentful. You know, I was kind of like, I have this great idea and then you have like this dumb cousin who's in every room before you.

David Roberts

Yeah, but now I'm kind of grateful.

Eric Gimon

Not only that, politically, the crypto bros all that kind of overlaps a lot on the right. So, it's maybe an arena where you can find consensus and move forward that's not as polarized.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Like, it's bipartisan too. Like people, you know, big companies with giant sacks of money tend to resolve partisan differences pretty quickly. So, there is a chance of this stuff moving โ€” God knows where and in what direction and who exactly. What a time to be alive, as they say. Well, thank you, Eric, so much for coming on and talking about this. This seems to me like one of the really most interesting and sort of fluid areas in energy right now is this sort of chunking, this parking, co-locating. So, thanks for coming on and talking through it.

Eric Gimon

Well, real pleasure, Dave.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Volts community thread #14

Davidโ€™s Notes

1. ๐Ÿ›ฃ๏ธ Like Willie, Iโ€™m on the road again, this time to Texas, which generates two times as much renewable energy as California. Iโ€™ll be doing two times the live events with Canary Media:

  • Austin, Jan 28: This event includes a Volts episode taping at UT-Austin. Tickets are FREE and first come, first served. Please please please only sign up if you truly plan to come. Hereโ€™s the link.

  • Houston, Jan 30: A star-studded panel at Greentown Labs; weโ€™ll be taping a Volts episode with Tim Latimer, CEO of the advanced geothermal company Fervo. We're giving away 20 free tickets to paid subscribers! ๐Ÿ† Register your interest here. I (or Sam) will randomly pick winners and email them on Wednesday. And of course, anyone can buy a ticket using this link.

2. โš ๏ธ Potential new perk? โš ๏ธ In a few weeks, audio engineer Kyle will edit together a recap episode that bundles 5-10 minute snippets of each Volts episode from January. The goal is to give time-strapped listeners the ability to preview conversations so that 1) they can access a TL;DR when theyโ€™re at their busiest, and 2) they can circle back to episodes that sound intriguing. If yโ€™all like it, itโ€™ll become a regular monthly perk for paid subscribers!

3.

4. Remember back in February of last year, I told you about adopting Abner? Well, it turns out he's a nightmare dog. He's very sweet with us at home and generally sweet with people, but he is insanely reactive toward other dogs when he is out on a leash. This has made walking the dog โ€” previously my favorite activity โ€” into an anxious and furtive undertaking. We took him to get assessed by some trainers, to see if he could get in the โ€œgrowly dogsโ€ class, but they deemed him too high-strung and too violent in his reactivity to be eligible. Bummer. If anyone knows of a specialist in severe reactivity in the Seattle area, hit me up.

Our adorable little nightmare.
Our adorable little nightmare.

5. โœ… Community comment of the month: During our recent episode on residential VPPs, I asked the CEO of Renew Home about the potential to shift demand using existing water heaters. It sounded like the company is focused on making sure that the next gen [electric] water heaters have this capability, but Clay D. found a company that can make "dumb" water heaters into smart ones right now:

At least one company makes an after market add on water heater controller.

https://aquanta.io/

Monthly Thread โ€” How It Works

This is your monthly opportunity to share! Use the comments section in this community thread to:

  • CLIMATE JOBS & OPPORTUNITIES: Share climate jobs/opportunities

  • SHARE WORK, ASK FOR HELP, FIND COLLABORATORS: Share your climate-related work, ask for help, or find collaborators

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Visited the Portrait Gallery when we were in DC over the holidays. RIP to this guy. His kind of dignity seems a distant memory already.
Visited the Portrait Gallery when we were in DC over the holidays. RIP to this guy. His kind of dignity seems a distant memory already.

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Organizing local support for clean energy projects

In this episode, I talk with Matt Traldi, co-founder of Greenlight America, about the fight for clean energy at the local level. We discuss how small groups of opponents are successfully blocking renewable projects across the country, and how his organization is working to turn the tide by mobilizing local supporters and giving them the tools to advocate effectively at critical government meetings.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

All right then. Hello everyone, welcome to Volts for January 8, 2025, "Organizing local support for clean energy projects." I'm your host, David Roberts. Two years ago, I did a podcast with journalist Michael Thomas about the network of right-wing groups fueling local opposition to clean energy projects across the US.

I lamented then, as I have many times since, that the proโ€“clean energy side does not have anything even remotely similar. Instead, individual developers are almost entirely on their own for community outreach and education โ€” and they're not particularly good at it, at least most of them. A recent survey found that developers cite local opposition as a leading cause of delayed and canceled energy projects, right up there with interconnection difficulties

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Since that pod, a number of groups and efforts have sprung up to try to improve the general information environment around clean energy, but one group in particular is hyper-focused on the specific problem of getting clean energy projects approved and built.

Matt Traldi
Matt Traldi

It's called Greenlight America. It launched last year and has since raised about $5 million and built up a staff of about 20. It was co-founded by longtime activist Matt Traldi, who co-founded the Trump resistance group Indivisible and before that, worked for labor unions for a decade. Greenlight helps local clean energy supporters understand where and when they can get involved on behalf of clean energy projects.

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I'm excited to talk to Traldi about his theory of change, how his organization works, where local support for clean energy can be found, and how intense it tends to be, and what ordinary people can do to get involved.

All right then, with no further ado, Matt Traldi, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Matt Traldi

Thank you for having me. Excited to be here.

David Roberts

So, before we get into Greenlight, let's just quickly sort of establish your bona fides. You've been around this world for a while. Maybe tell just a brief history of your activism and then, in the course of that, how it is that this pulled you in.

Matt Traldi

So, thanks for the intro. Thanks again for having me. As you mentioned, I started my career in politics and activism in the labor movement. I worked for a handful of unions, most recently SEIU. And then in 2016, there was an election and I, like a lot of people, was very upset with the results. And I got involved in drafting a Google Doc guide about what people could do about it in their own communities, how they could stop the Trump agenda by focusing on their own members of Congress. That became the Indivisible guide. We put it on the Internet, it went viral, we crashed Google Docs, and then I spent the next few years helping build the Indivisible organizations and support the incredible movement of Indivisible groups across the US.

Then, a couple years ago, a few things happened at once. The first is that while I was at Indivisible, I got to work a little bit on passing the Inflation Reduction Act. And I felt, and still feel, incredible excitement and optimism that we're actually going to do what's necessary to make the clean energy transition happen and to lower emissions and fight climate change in the process. And I hadn't always felt that excitement and optimism, so I really wanted to listen to that, you know, to follow that. And right around the same time, my wife and I decided to have a kid.

Our daughter, Avery, she joined us last year. She's 13 months old now.

David Roberts

Congrats.

Matt Traldi

Thank you. Thank you. And it's a total stereotype, but for me, it really changed my time horizon. At Indivisible, we were always working on whatever the most urgent political problem of the moment happened to be. Instead, I was thinking, "What is life going to be like in 50 years for my daughter?" As you know, and as many of the folks listening know, when you look out that far, emissions reduction is very, very important. It really rises to the top of the list. So both of those things led me first, really just to start learning as much as I could about clean energy and about what would be necessary to build it.

I'm not a clean energy expert. I'm an organizer and campaigner. I started having a lot of conversations with folks who knew more about clean energy than I did. I learned some things that you and many of your listeners already know: We need to build a ton of clean energy, an absolutely crazy amount. Most of the emissions reduction in the next decade will come from the power sector. In that time, we need to build almost two large-scale, utility-scale clean energy projects per day for the next 10 years.

David Roberts

Yeah, I really... You say people get that, but I honestly don't think that even people in our world really get that. The numbers like two utility-scale projects a day is very eye-opening.

Matt Traldi

Yeah, it's like nothing we've ever seen or done before.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's a pace of building that's unprecedented in US history.

Matt Traldi

That's right. That's right. The good news, though, is that the technology is there, the costs are low, wind and solar are the cheapest energy you can build. But I learned there is this major problem, which is local permitting. Right now, hundreds of projects every year across the US get held up by local permitting and really, that's because a small number of opponents can show up and can block a project, can pass a ban, can block an ordinance that would enable clean energy development at that local level. Right now, those opponents are showing up and supporters are not.

So, we're losing by forfeit in communities across the country every week. That immediately piqued my interest because, as I mentioned, I'm not a clean energy expert, I'm not a technology person. I'm glad people are working on cold fusion โ€” I'm the wrong person to send to help with that challenge. But an organizing and campaigning challenge that I hopefully can help with a little more. So that's what we're doing at Greenlight .

David Roberts

Right. And so, the problem, as you say, is in these local battles. They're pretty small scale. And so, there are relatively few people involved generally. Consequently, a relatively small group of people that shows up and makes a big noise can make a huge impression on these things. Like, I just want to emphasize that you don't need, like the anti-clean energy forces, huge numbers of people, right? It doesn't have to be a big popular thing. You can do a lot of damage with a few people.

Matt Traldi

That's exactly right. And a lot of this goes back to the fundamentals of local advocacy and local government. You know, things that I learned a lot about from watching Indivisible groups across the US try to influence their own members of Congress, their own representatives. Local advocacy is all about who shows up. Local government operates through hearings and planning and zoning commission meetings. These are the unsung heroes of how our government works, how our society stays together. These are folks spending hours in the middle of the day talking about installing speed bumps for the county budget.

And a tiny number of people come to these. You know, it might be a dozen people at one or 20 people at another, but the people in the room have immense influence โ€” particularly, I would say, folks who actually live in that community. That's one of the core things about local advocacy. Because local decision makers, county councilors, folks of that type, they care about their constituents, both for high-minded reasons and also because they might want to get reelected. So they need the support of their community. And those are also people they know, their neighbors, the folks that their kids go to school with.

The kids are the people who show up. So, we found that even a relatively small number of people, three people here, five people there, can absolutely change the outcome, and for massive projects that have a hugely outsized impact. So, Greenlight, really, we're here to help people show up and communicate persuasively to know where and when to show up so that they can influence whether clean energy projects do get built.

David Roberts

It's worth emphasizing that things are going in the wrong direction in this particular area. Like this USA Today story was about this survey, the survey I mentioned, had this striking statistic: In the past decade, about 180 counties got their first commercial wind power projects, but in the same period, more than twice as many counties blocked wind development. So, it does seem like renewable energy development is spreading quickly, but it also kind of seems like this organized opposition is spreading even more quickly. So, you sort of alluded to it there, but tell us what the sort of broad theory of change is here.

So what's your working theory as you approach trying to solve this problem?

Matt Traldi

You know, first, I'll just say we're students of the opposition. This is another thing that I learned from my time at Indivisible. You know, we really learned from the Tea Party everything that they had done to stop progress under President Obama. And, you know, we're trying to apply many of the same strategies, tactics, and lessons to our work.

David Roberts

Well, you know, I think about, like โ€” not to get pulled away by the subject โ€” but this is something that always struck me, even at the time, is that it didn't seem like there were that many people involved in the Tea Party. But every little protest, you know, they send one person to a town hall with a politician. That one person yells, you know, gets on the nightly news and like, it sounds like a big thing, you know what I mean? Like, it just, like it's a small number of people, but making a very big noise and sort of creating the illusion.

It's like you're hiking through the woods, you know, and they're like creating the illusion that you're surrounded by bears, even though there's like one person out there. So, it is like projecting yourself onto a screen, making yourself look bigger and scarier than you are. That is something that that side seems very good at.

Matt Traldi

100%. And often when we look for the fingerprints, you know, it's hard to talk about the opposition without talking about fossil fuel companies and interests and their role in spreading disinformation about clean energy and also in fomenting opposition at the local level. Because you really have two parts of the opposition. There are local opponents, neighbors of projects, you know, who they might be dealing with disinformation about a clean energy technology, or they might be, you know, personally inconvenienced by a project in their community or something like that, but they're just regular people, you know. And then at the same time, you have these powerful fossil fuel interests that have a kind of existential vested interest in stopping the quick deployment of clean energy and the future in which we're going to have abundant clean energy for all Americans, you know, that is directly counter to their interests.

And, you know, often we go looking for the fingerprints of these organizations. You know, are they funding the local folks who show up? You know, are they funding the Facebook group? And it's usually not that, you know, there's no smoking gun, that they're, you know, somehow passing out millions of dollars to these local folks, but they've figured out some tactics that really work for exactly this kind of local organizing. The first thing I'd mention is they create tools and they give them away. So, national opposition groups, they come up with disinformation arguments about different clean energy technology, they come up with tactics about how to start a Facebook group, what to say at the local meeting, all of that stuff, and they give it away to anyone who will use it.

David Roberts

Yeah, this is something that came up in that pod that I referenced with Michael Thomas a couple of years ago about the dirty energy campaigners. It's like you go to a local community where maybe Bob the farmer discovers they want to build a solar panel field right next to him. In isolation, Bob the farmer probably doesn't have a lot of strong pre-existing sentiments about solar one way or the other. Most people don't spend a lot of time thinking about it. So he might be sort of like vaguely irritated.

But then he goes and googles whatever, like, "solar farm next to you" and finds these right-wing groups that are like, "Here, Bob, here is a PDF that you can print and pass out at the meeting. Here's a bunch of arguments for why solar is bad. Here are the meetings where this is going to be decided." You know what I mean? It takes Bob's sort of vague discontent and shapes and directs it. Not like it hands Bob a check or doesn't invent Bob, you know what I mean? Or doesn't hire Bob. It finds Bob. Bob is real. But Bob gets supercharged by these groups.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And everything they put together, local activists like Bob the farmer, they're the audience, right? It's not the decision-makers, you know, because a national group, whether a fossil fuel group, you know, a nonprofit like Greenlight, we don't have any power or influence with local decision-makers. But those folks in the community, they do. And so everything you create is with those local activists as an audience. I also think we can learn a lot from the fact that opposition groups, they're happy to have Bob or whoever the neighbor is use their materials. They're not looking for the perfect messenger or the perfect message.

You know, they're trying to make sure that at every one of these hearings, there's someone to yell, right? There's someone to try to gunk up the works.

David Roberts

Someone yelling versus no one yelling is the relevant difference. What they're yelling is of secondary importance.

Matt Traldi

Yep, that's exactly right.

David Roberts

Or just like having a body there versus not having a body there. That's the big change.

Matt Traldi

Yeah, showing up is 90% of local activism, you know, and we should know that. We know how to do this. But to get back to your question about Greenlight's theory of change, it's really based on studying the opposition and exactly this, what we know about local advocacy, that local residents showing up is 90% of the battle. So, we think of our role in a couple of different ways. The first is local activists need to know where and when to show up. So, we track clean energy projects. We have something we call the "early warning system" to figure out where these hearings are going to be, where a clean energy project might win approval or might get blocked, or where a local ordinance might get passed or a ban might get passed.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, that alone is huge. I wouldn't know that stuff. Like, I wouldn't know where to look for that stuff. You know, a lot of this stuff is like, they don't advertise. It's not clear. Just knowing this stuff is going to happen is such a big deal.

Matt Traldi

Absolutely. And, you know, local governments have very limited resources to publicize these hearings. Also, most of the hearings, as we talked about before, are not that crowded. Right. You know, it's not like usually people are banging down their door to attend. So that's step one. It's just knowing where and when to show up. The second step really is about, we think about our role as supporting a network of local groups and local supporters to show up. Again, it's never going to be helpful if a national nonprofit on the opposition side or on the support side is showing up.

And, you know, the local decision-makers, they don't care what I think, you know, here in D.C.

David Roberts

Matt, do you remember? You do. I'm sure you've been around, so I know you remember. Do you remember when, like, the hordes of Howard Dean enthusiasts, young Howard Dean enthusiasts, were sort of, like, flown into rural Idaho? What year was that when Dean...? Was that 2004?

Matt Traldi

It was 2004. Yep, I remember that race.

David Roberts

It's a very classic. I think everyone on our side of political organizing still thinks about that. Just these, like, Dean-drones banging on rural Ohio doors. It did not go well.

Matt Traldi

Yeah, you know, the messenger really matters in all of this work, and, you know, having someone local in particular, someone with credibility in the community, it makes a huge difference. And then the last thing I'd say, that's a core part. So step one, when and where to show up. Step two โ€”

David Roberts

I want to spend some time on one.

Matt Traldi

Sure.

David Roberts

What is that early warning โ€” what does that look like? Do you just have people out crawling the net or how's that structured?

Matt Traldi

So, there are a couple of different components of it. The first thing is absolutely people, you know, human researchers. I spent a while in the labor movement as a researcher. So, you know, we're a ways away from, you know, the AI replacing the skill and judgment of a human researcher. But a large part of it is human researchers looking on the Internet.

David Roberts

That does honestly seem like something where AI might actually help at some point, though, like just scrolling through large amounts of text.

Matt Traldi

Yeah, well, we do use โ€” this is, you know, probably you'll get a bunch of, you know, nasty comments if I call this AI, because it's not technically AI, but we do use web crawlers to really augment their work. So, and that's something that has changed a lot. When I was a researcher, you needed to do, you know, some coding in order to set up a web crawler. You know, you needed to know Python or something. And now, you know, it's pretty easy to set up web crawlers and, you know, basically to get alerts each time a certain website makes a change.

So, for example, each time a particular local government website uploads a new PDF of their meeting agenda. And then a more sophisticated version would be each time they upload one and it includes the word "solar."

David Roberts

And, you're not looking for just sort of like any local meeting about clean energy? These are specifically about projects. Specifically about specific projects. Are you trying to sort of narrow your search that way?

Matt Traldi

Yes, and no. Specific projects are really central to what we do, but we also look for ordinances or bans that enable or block clean energy development. You know, you mentioned earlier the number of counties that have bans on wind energy. It's a growing number. It's 15% of US counties that have bans on clean energy in some way or another. You know, it's a really scary number because that includes a lot of the places that are the best for wind and solar development. They've considered the ban because there were projects being proposed there. So, it's really important if a county is considering a ban to be able to engage as well, or if there's an opportunity to pass a favorable ordinance to basically get good rules on the books that then will allow projects to move forward in an uncomplicated fashion when the individual projects are moving.

David Roberts

And these are clean energy projects specifically? So, I sort of wonder how or whether you bump up against housing, because of course that's like the hot thing now for everyone, including in climate. Are you restricting your gaze to energy projects?

Matt Traldi

That's right. So, we're only working on clean energy. And because our work is responsive to what industry is proposing, enormous amounts of solar right now, that's definitely the biggest volume of projects. Some onshore and offshore wind, battery storage projects, etc. We think of ourselves as "YIMBY for clean energy." So, we compare notes a lot with the YIMBY folks who are working on housing. You know, I think there's a lot that we can learn from the work in that space and, you know, hopefully some stuff we can share as well. But the geographic footprint tends to be a little different.

I would say that many of the housing fights are in metropolitan areas.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's right. That's right.

Matt Traldi

Whereas, you know, one thing that wind and solar have in common is that you need land to build them. And so, these tend to be rural areas, less densely populated, where there's a higher volume of wind and solar projects moving forward and higher potential for future development.

David Roberts

Okay, so first โ€” you have these sort of three programs โ€” the first is the early warning system, where you've just got your antenna out for meetings, local meetings related to clean energy. Then the second is this partnership network. So like you said earlier, you do not have the staff, and it would not be strategically wise, regardless, just to have a central staff of people that you send out to places to parachute in and tell them what to do. So, you are mainly about activating local partners. Locals. And I guess my question about this is, how reliable is it to find supportive partners?

Do you feel like they're always there? Have you ever gone to look and be like, "Well, no one around here seems to want this." You know what I mean? How reliable is it to find groups and people that you can work with?

Matt Traldi

It's a great question and kind of an existential one for Greenlight's work.

David Roberts

The whole theory of the case here is that there is a latent public support for this that you can activate, right?

Matt Traldi

That's right. So, one thing I'd say first is, I really strongly agree with what you said earlier that, you know, most folks don't know or care about a clean energy project moving forward. You know, there's not a silent majority of opponents. There's not a silent majority of supporters. There's a silent set of folks who don't know or care. Right. That's the majority. In the abstract, support for clean energy is quite high. You know, if you poll folks and just ask, "You know, do you think abundant solar energy is a good idea?"

People will, you know, 70% of people will say yes. And that tends to be true even in rural and conservative places. So, a big part of our work is really about activating potential support, sharing information with folks both about what a clean energy project can do for that community, the benefits it can offer, including economic benefits, as well as the massive impact that individual people can have by showing up. Most people don't realize โ€” I recycle, you know, and I've read all the articles about how, you know, half the stuff I recycle probably isn't really recycling.

And, you know, I do it because I really want to do something positive and I'm willing, even when I know objectively that, you know...

David Roberts

It's ritualistic to some extent, right? It's like, almost like a religious practice or something.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And I think it speaks to a lot of people who really do have this desire to make a difference.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Matt Traldi

And so, to have this incredible opportunity where you could be one of five or 10 people who show up at a hearing, and if you're one of those five or 10 people and you win approval for a 400 megawatt onshore wind project and it displaces coal in the power system, those five or 10 people have the impact of something like 260,000 gas-powered cars coming off the road for a year.

David Roberts

Yeah, I mean, in terms of like, you know, living in the activism world, most activism most of the time is an exercise in frustration. But like this, this is an area where there is a pretty reliable and pretty short distance between action and result. Right? Like, this is one of those areas of activism where you actually can see results on a human timescale. You know, it's a rare thing in activism.

Matt Traldi

That's exactly right. And you know, honestly, this work, if there's one thing that I hope everyone takes away from listening to this, it's that I feel incredibly hopeful because of doing this work. At Greenlight, we've supported local groups to advance 4.4 gigawatts of clean energy in just the last year. That avoids approximately 2 million tons annually of emissions. It's incredibly tangible. And particularly when there are so many complicated and dire things going on with our politics and there's so much potential bad news, it really is a gift to be able to work on something so tangible, so beneficial in your own community, but that has this massive global set of implications if you're able to win.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's a little bit similar to when I did the pod on PUCs on Public Utility Commissions. Similarly, like an opportunity for a relatively small number of people to have a relatively outsized impact.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And really, it's about how our system of government works and where you have power. At Indivisible, Leah Greenberg, one of our co-founders, one of the co-executive directors there, she used to always say, "We didn't write the Indivisible Guide to give people hope. We wrote it to tell them they had power. But realizing that you have power is a very important ingredient of hope." And it's easy to look at national politics or global climate negotiations and think, "I have no power here." There's so little that I can do that has an influence.

But people really have power in their local communities. It's a small number of people who live there. It's a small number of people who show up.

David Roberts

Do you find that, because most of these battles are sort of being lost by default, by forfeit, if you go and activate someone and someone shows up, you generally win?

Matt Traldi

I wouldn't quite say, generally, but our win rate is pretty good when people actually show up. Yeah. So, I divide up into a couple of different sets of circumstances. Sometimes, you have local decision makers who themselves are, I'm going to say, reasonable people. You know, they're not, they don't feel super ideological about building a wind farm or a solar farm. They don't think the wind turbines are going to cause cancer or whatever crazy disinformation. But, you know, fundamentally, they're responsive to their constituents. They'd like the benefits that the development will bring to their community. But if everybody who shows up is opposed, they're going to block the project because that's their job, is to represent their constituents.

And so, in those cases, we really do think that even a couple of local supporters can give decision-makers cover to do the right thing, political cover, that they're just looking for something to hold onto. And we hear this sometimes from local decision-makers. They say, because they got input in both directions, that they had to weigh the factors themselves for what would be better for the community and decided yes. So that's one kind of situation. I would say that either when you have more hesitant decision-makers themselves, or when there's a lot of opposition organizing, you know, a lot of people showing up on the other side, it can be important to have more people show up, you know, in support, to have larger numbers.

I'll just give an example. We worked with the Western Colorado Alliance on overturning a ban on solar development in Mesa County, Colorado, and there was a ban in place. So, that's a difficult starting place. The decision makers were willing to ban solar. We'd heard that they were potentially open to passing an ordinance that would enable solar. But a lot of the details were up for debate in terms of things like setbacks. How far would solar have to be from property lines, which, if you make them big enough, then you can't have a solar project.

And in that particular case, because it really could go either way based on the decision makers and the starting line, so to speak, we tried really hard to out-mobilize the opposition. Western Colorado Alliance really gets most of the credit for this. They mobilized 30 people to a hearing, and 13 people spoke at the hearing. 11 of them were supporters and only two opponents. And so, we got a favorable ordinance in place with none of the restrictions that the opposition proposed. And I do think actually out-mobilizing, having more supporters there, in that particular case โ€” maybe we still would have gotten rid of the ban, but if we hadn't had the numbers in that case, then maybe some of the restrictions would have made their way into the ordinance.

David Roberts

Yeah, well, getting back to my previous question, have you ever had a situation where you go and look for supportive local partners and just can't find any?

Matt Traldi

So far, we have not. There's always someone. It does really vary, though. When I was in the labor movement, there was this clichรฉ that people would use: "What's the one thing leaders have in common? They have followers." They don't have anything in common other than the fact that leaders all have followers. I think there's a little bit of a parallel for this type of work, which is to say: "What's the one thing that partners who can mobilize people have in common? Well, they have members who want to show up for this stuff." Other than that, they're really different.

Some of them are state-based organizations, you know, that have members in a lot of communities around the state. We even work with chapters of national organizations, you know, that's Sierra Club chapters, local Indivisible groups, you know, folks like that. And then sometimes it's truly local groups. And then the last thing I'd say is that we also reach out directly to individual local folks who we think might be supportive. So sometimes it can be a little bit of an adventure, you know, finding the supporters.

David Roberts

But let me ask about the individuals because I'm curious about this. You know, we were talking about Bob earlier, Farmer Bob. So, he's got some sort of vague concerns about solar. And what these sort of anti-clean energy groups do is sort of say, "Yes, Bob, you're right. Here are some talking points, here are some materials," right? This just sort of supercharges Bob. That seems to me a lower level of difficulty than what you're trying to do. For the simple reason that they don't care whether the information is accurate or not, or whether Bob becomes well-informed, you know what I mean?

Like, they just got to give Bob stuff to yell and scream about. So, in some sense, that's a lower bar to clear. But, like, if you just find a Farmer Bob in a local community who has vaguely positive feelings about solar and you want to do the same thing, you want to give him material talking points, how easy is it to sort of train up a random local? Do you know what I mean? Do you feel like you can prepare them to speak well and accurately? Like, how big of a lift is that?

Matt Traldi

This is a really exciting question, and I think it gets to the core of what I love about our work at Greenlight . So first, I'll just do a disclaimer, which is to say, it's easier to campaign against things than to campaign for things. It's easier to organize against things than to organize for things. And that is, you know, something that I'm not even talking here about clean energy, but as the broader progressive project, so to speak, we have to tackle it.

David Roberts

It's human nature.

Matt Traldi

That's right.

David Roberts

That's why a group like yours has been so long in coming, right? Like, it's not an easy dilemma to solve, how to marry activism with positive, "Yes, building". You know, like, that's the โ€” no one's really figured that out.

Matt Traldi

That's absolutely right. But, some things are incredibly rewarding about our work. First, as I mentioned earlier about recycling, we find that there are a lot of people out there who want to do something, want to have a positive impact in their community, want to, in particular, do something about climate change. And in general, what we find is that local supporters are sharp. They want to win, they want to be effective, and they want the right tools to be effective, to be persuasive. And that's really important because one of the tricky things about Greenlight's work is that โ€” the reason I'm here is climate change.

David Roberts

Rural communities, all things being equal, tend to be more conservative and clean energy, generally speaking, is culturally coded left. You know, I don't know if that's uniform everywhere, but generally speaking. So, I'm guessing part of what's on your mind when you go to these rural local communities is you don't want to show up talking like a leftist, right, or you don't want to assume shared progressive values. So, like, how much work do you put in to sort of de-partisanizing your materials?

Matt Traldi

This is a central question, and it's one we think a lot about. What I would say is, we have an interesting โ€” and this is not unique to Greenlight or to this issue, you know, this is true for a lot of volunteer activism movements โ€” we have this interesting dichotomy, right, where many of the individual activists who are going to participate in a campaign that Greenlight supports, perhaps they're a member of a local environmental organization or something like that. For them, the reason they engage might be climate, it might be emissions reduction.

David Roberts

Well, almost by definition, if they care enough to be active, they're unusual, right? Almost definitionally.

Matt Traldi

That's exactly right. They know, and we know, that perhaps to the local decision-makers, you know, perhaps to their neighbors, climate is not going to be a winning message. And so they need to know, you know, what will be an effective way to make the case for these projects. And, you know, one thing I want to say here, it's easy for those of us who care so much about climate change to be a little cynical about โ€” is the reason climate's not a winning message in these places, you know, is it because of Fox News and right-wing lunacy and so forth?

But the sympathetic thing I want to say is this: a local community, they're not deciding, is clean energy good? They're not deciding, is climate change real? You know, they're deciding, should we build this project here?

David Roberts

Well, I mean, look at every NIMBY group in history. They're all like, "Oh, no, no, we support affordable housing, don't get us wrong. Just not here."

Matt Traldi

That's right. And so, they're deciding based on what they perceive as being good or bad for their community. Many of these, again, are rural communities. The rural way of life is very important to them. They want to preserve the community the way it is. They don't necessarily want a project that maybe is good for the globe or for the US to come in that's going to totally change everything that they value. On a human level, I think we have to be sympathetic to that.

And so, ultimately, in our view, the winning argument for these projects, the thing that local activists can share that's going to change people's minds so often, really, is about what does that local community get from the project? What are the benefits that they get? What are the things that it'll allow them to do? And there are tons of stories about this school in West Texas where every student got an iPad for the first time because of a wind project built in the community. I heard one about a school, Michigan High School, that was able to build a new football stadium from a clean energy project and then won the state championship.

So, these are the things, the tangible examples, and this is the last thing I'd say too: in general, clean energy is a very technical subject, and volunteers do need support from us in order to speak to the technical details, the setbacks, decommissioning the panels, all of that stuff. But something that I said earlier, I'm a student of the opposition. Something that the opposition does so well is they focus on stories and not facts. So if we're going to support local people, local groups, to be effective advocates for clean energy, they do need some facts.

Absolutely. Because otherwise, we're setting them up to get tricked and to not have the information they need. But they're going to win with stories of what the clean energy transition can do for their community, for communities like theirs. Not with facts and numbers and all the things that we, as progressives, as policy wonks, we love that stuff.

David Roberts

I would be horrible at this.

Matt Traldi

I'm struggling through it. I'm struggling through it.

David Roberts

Do you ever work with developers? Because, like, how much or what the community is going to get out of it, to some extent, comes down to the developer. Like, the developer can offer more or less. Do you ever work with developers to sort of sweeten the package before you wade into these fights?

Matt Traldi

So first, just to say in general about our relationship with developers: Greenlight, we collaborate with industry, with the clean energy industry as often as we can. We're always going to be more effective if we're sharing information back and forth, if we know what the developer is hearing from community stakeholders, if they know what we're hearing, what questions we're getting, all that stuff. So, we try to always do that. And we've benefited from a lot of amazing partners in the clean energy industry. And I would say there's a growing awareness of this challenge and commitment to tackling it among clean energy companies.

That, to me, is incredibly heartening. You know, they are companies trying to make a profit, sure. And also, it's not a coincidence that they ended up trying to build this thing that we all need. We need abundant clean energy for the future of the US and of the planet. And they've set themselves to this social purpose, so to speak. So, I have a lot of admiration and appreciation for them. We don't accept funding from developers. So, they don't pay us to work on their projects or anything like that. And that's a conscious choice that we think is really important for us to be an independent voice and for our partners as well.

David Roberts

Are there projects that you chose not to support because you didn't think they were good for communities? Like, are there, you know what I mean? Like, how absolute is your support for clean energy?

Matt Traldi

Yeah, it's a totally fair question. So first, I would say we never work against a clean energy project. We're a new organization; we try to only do one thing and do that one thing well. And the one thing is trying to get clean energy projects approved. But we will turn down โ€” so during our pilot program, we ended up working on 11 campaigns, but we got approached by about 200. So there's a massive demand out there and we couldn't possibly work on every project. So we have to have some way of selecting.

David Roberts

Says a little bit about the unmet need here, just to put a flag on that.

Matt Traldi

It's true. And one of the ways that we decide on projects, we do look at what we call flags internally. So, there can be green flags, things that make us excited about a project. And then there can be red flags, things that would scare us off. I'll just give โ€” because I come out of the labor movement โ€” labor as an example. A green flag might be if a project has union commitments in terms of how it'll be built, that would make it more attractive to us. And a red flag might be if there's an active labor dispute, you know, we're going to steer clear. Right.

There are so many moral and strategic questions. It's just not, you know, there are enough projects out there. Let's not do that. So, there are similar kinds of flags across a bunch of different areas. Another one that I'll pop out is in the western US, in particular, there are a lot of projects that get built either on tribal land or that have implications for tribal cultural heritage. And that's something where we just think of that as a moral issue versus just a kind of campaign calculation.

If there's a tribe objecting to a project, that's probably going to be it for us in terms of whether we can support it. There are edge cases, of course, with all of these things. But it's just to say that we do think a lot about these different considerations and would decline. We wouldn't oppose a project ourselves because we're not in that business, but we would decline to work on a project if we thought the red flags were such that it didn't make sense.

David Roberts

Okay, so let's finish this list, because we're almost done with the list. The three programs are: one, the early warning system, so you're just looking around for relevant meetings where things are happening. Two is this partnership network. So, when you find something happening locally, you go activate and educate local partners, but the local partners lead. And then the third thing here is your actual campaigning, your execution of campaigns. And here, in your founding document, you said "Winning with precision." You've mentioned a few things about how you go about winning, but just say a quick word about what do you mean by precision here.

Matt Traldi

Yeah, absolutely. So this really speaks to your question about how we support local volunteers to be effective, which is that a big part of the reason, in addition to not knowing when and where to show up, a big part of the reason potential supporters are not engaging is that clean energy is a technical subject. These projects are all specific projects with various pros and cons, trade-offs, and so forth. And it can be a difficult landscape to jump into. Greenlight, one of the reasons we exist, really is to support local groups, local partners, local supporters.

We think having an organization like us, where this is really the only thing we do, is beneficial. You know, a local group might be working on 10 or 20 things, yes, but this is all we do. And so, because of that, we can really develop the tools and resources to help folks engage effectively. Precision is really about that. How do we support folks where even a small number of people can be effective, can be persuasive, messengers can show up at the right time and say the right kinds of things? Even if a lot of that will be personalized, with them of course deciding what to say, we can help them not run afoul of any details of the project and not say something that's going to backfire with the audience.

And the other thing really is about assessing the local community, the decision makers, and so forth, and thinking about what will be influential to them. I'm going to give an example of all of these elements coming together on one of our campaigns. So, we caught through our early warning system, through one of the web crawlers, actually, we caught this proposed new ordinance language in Erie County, Pennsylvania. It's a relatively pro-clean-energy place. And the new ordinance language was going to require that before projects could go up for local permitting, they would have to have interconnection approval.

David Roberts

Well, that's never going to happen.

Matt Traldi

It's never going to happen. And you know, we say at Greenlight that local permitting is the biggest obstacle. And some people who work on interconnection would complain, right?

David Roberts

They would say it's a tight race.

Matt Traldi

Interconnection is just as big. Exactly. It's a tight race. These are two big problems. And the effect of this language would be to delay projects for years while they were waiting on interconnection and potentially to kill projects because the economics of the project wouldn't pencil out if it had a three-year longer development time horizon. And in this case, because we've done a bunch of work in Pennsylvania, we have amazing partners there, Penn Environment, Clean Air Council, Solar United Neighbors.

And so, we were able to kind of get the network together pretty quickly. Our analysis was that these were relatively favorable decision-makers, you know, that they would want to make a pro clean-energy decision. So, what was needed was just for them to hear from across the spectrum of folks who care about clean energy deployment that we wanted this requirement gone. Penn Environment led a sign-on letter. They got 19 organizations to sign on, just saying, "We want this requirement removed." Solar United Neighbors hosted a power hour, got some volunteers involved, and it was only three volunteers who spoke at the hearing and made this ask for this language to be removed.

But because of that, that's the precision part. Because of that assessment of what was needed in the situation, we were able to get these six words removed from this ordinance. The favorable ordinance passed without these six words. And there's more than 900 megawatts of solar in the queue in Erie County. So that's potentially a win with a really long tail. All from this combination of an early warning system that tells us there's a problem, a strong network in Pennsylvania of local partner groups and local supporters, and then this supercharged support. How do we get folks to show up at the right time, say the right thing, have the right tactics so that we're able to win?

David Roberts

And it's worth saying, although maybe this is obvious by implication, but the more you do this, the more you strengthen those local networks and the less of a lift it is the next time. Right?

Matt Traldi

That's exactly right. The first campaign we work on in a state is so much work because we're going to partners who've never heard of us. We're introducing ourselves, we're saying, "By the way, you know, you could work on this thing with us where you'd have the same impact as, you know, planting 18 million tree seedlings and growing them for a decade." You know, it sounds like snake oil, you know, it's too good to be true. Right. In contrast, the fifth or sixth campaign we work on in the state where we've got strong partners, we're supporting them, they kind of know what they can count on us for.

They have a sense of each other's strengths and, you know, where they have members and all that stuff. It really starts, the magic really starts happening. You know, we're all able to move pretty quickly. And that's important too, because timing is one of the biggest challenges of these things. Usually, we'd love to have long notice before one of these hearings, but usually, it'll be, you know, 45 days public notice before a hearing or something like that. We're always trying to push that number up, and we benefit a lot โ€” the other input to the early warning system that I should have mentioned is developers themselves will often tell us when they have a project moving to permitting, but even that is inexact because they know when they're planning to submit it, that might change.

And then they submit it, and then the county council decides when it's going to be on the hearing docket. So, getting the timing right and being able to respond quickly with a good network of partners makes all the difference.

David Roberts

A little bit of a nerdy question, but what is the significance of Greenlight having both a C3 and a C4?

Matt Traldi

So, Greenlight America is our 501(c)(3). And Greenlight Action is a 501(c)(4). 501(c)(3)s, at least of the type Greenlight America are educational organizations. They can raise awareness, they can, you know, share information. They can do coalition building. You know, lots of the work that Greenlight does. 501(c)(4)s are called "social welfare organizations", but really the most common type is advocacy organizations. So they engage either in direct lobbying, where they themselves are going to government officials and asking them to take some kind of action, or in grassroots lobbying, where they're working with volunteers to ask their own elected representatives to take some kind of action.

And Greenlight Action mainly engages in grassroots lobbying. You know, one of the things I'd mention here is that many of the opposition groups โ€” this is the recurring theme of this call โ€” is, you know, we're students of the opposition. We try to learn from what they do. Many opposition groups are structured as 501(c)(4)s so that they can do this more direct work to try to influence specific decisions made available.

David Roberts

That just means you can campaign for a specific piece of policy or specific politician?

Matt Traldi

That's right. So, it's making an ask of an elected leader to take a particular action or vote. So, to pass a local ordinance to approve a specific project. And 501(c)(3)s can do a little bit of that, but it's not their primary purpose, and they're more limited. Our side has more 501(c)(3) organizations and so more doing general education and awareness raising, but maybe not weighing in at that critical moment asking that local county council to specifically pass this ordinance or to specifically approve this project. And so, we think of grassroots lobbying work as so important.

It's central to our analysis of the problem here that folks show up in their own communities at these critical moments and ask their elected leaders directly what they want them to do.

David Roberts

Wait, Matt, you're saying that raising awareness is not the be-all, is not the end of the...?

Matt Traldi

That's right. It's, you know, it's not to โ€” both are important, but I do think that often our side, we sometimes tend to take a knife to a gunfight.

David Roberts

We love awareness. We cannot raise it high enough.

Matt Traldi

That's right. That's right. More awareness. That's what we need.

David Roberts

You can never have too much. You've said several times that you are learning from the opposition. I wonder, do you spend any time as an organization talking about or going after or explicitly fighting the other side, exposing the networks of money and all this? There's a lot of attention to that kind of thing. Are you in that business at all?

Matt Traldi

That's a great question. The short answer is that's not our focus. A big part of the reason is, as we talked about earlier, the opposition really has these two parts. The one part is community members in a local community where a project is getting built, neighbors of the project who may be getting disinformation, they may have their own reasons that they're inconvenienced by a project. But you know, we really don't think that demonizing those folks is, it's not good for the community, it's not good for our prospects. You know, we tend to steer clear of that.

And the big fossil fuel interests that are kind of behind some of the disinformation that is getting spread, or you know, things of that type, often don't show up by name in these communities.

David Roberts

So, that's part of why it works. I mean, it's part of the beauty of the whole thing.

Matt Traldi

That's right. So, it can kind of be a bank shot. We do generally think that part of effectively countering disinformation can be mentioning that it's being intentionally spread by these outsiders.

David Roberts

That's a little bit what I was getting at. Like, do you go into these meetings and say, "Hey, look, these things you're saying are not only not true, they're from this network of groups that are funded by fossil fuels, etcetera, etcetera."

Matt Traldi

Yes, that can for sure be a component of combating it effectively. But, you know, there's this depressing thing about disinformation that I just wanted to share because, as a member of the fact-based community, I find this very confronting. So, the number one rule in working on disinformation is that you can't myth-bust it; you can't fact-check it. Right? Because, unfortunately, if you fact-check it, what people remember is there's controversy.

David Roberts

They remember it.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And so, you know, that's really tempting to all of us. But, you know, getting to this thing about stories, the focus in combating disinformation has to be reorienting to the story about why building the project is a good idea, why clean energy can bring benefits there.

David Roberts

And the story that "You've been duped" is never, even if it's true, never an inspiration to anyone.

Matt Traldi

That's right. So, we do find, and this was true, Indivisible has this amazing program called the Truth Brigade that worked on disinformation in the democracy space more so. And we did find there, and you know, we find at Greenlight as well, that sometimes it can be helpful in the midst of telling the positive story to mention there are these powerful forces who are from outside the community who are saying crazy things and distracting us basically from the way we want to make this decision, which is really like, what's best for our community? Will this project help us? And if so, how?

David Roberts

Well, this is... What is the narrative? The race class?

Matt Traldi

Yep.

David Roberts

That's what they're always talking about, right? Is it that you don't counter the specific facts or the specific pseudo facts because, like you say, in the process of countering them, you just end up repeating them and people just end up remembering them more. You try to expose why they're doing what they're doing. Like, what is the larger goal here? Why are they spewing these pseudo facts? It is to divide and distract us. Right. Like that's the focus of the message.

Matt Traldi

That's exactly right. And I'll say this thing sometimes about offshore wind because, you know, there's all this stuff about whales and offshore wind. And I, I'll say the same thing. Sometimes if we're talking about whales, we're losing. You know, it's not a real concern. People are talking about it in places where there's not even steel in the water yet. So, how could offshore wind be...? And so, you know, it's our job mainly to talk about how the clean energy transition is going to benefit a specific community where a project's getting built and also benefit all of us.

We've got this future coming of abundant clean energy and the rural revitalization that comes with that. The more we're talking about that, the better. And to the extent we go into the disinformation at all, it has to be, as you said, about why are these powerful forces trying to block it? Why are they coming up with this stuff that is a distraction at a fundamental level from whether we should build this project? And just to sound a hopeful note on this, most folks who say they oppose clean energy projects in their own communities do not actually believe these crazy things, you know, that there's cadmium leaking into the groundwater or whatever.

And so, I do think that, you know, we risk giving it too much oxygen if we dwell on the fact-checking.

David Roberts

I mean, a lot of it has the vibe of, like, "This makes me feel bad. I don't like the feeling of contemplating this and then going out and looking for something to support that feeling." Right?

Matt Traldi

That's right.

David Roberts

So what would you do with 10x your current budget?

Matt Traldi

I love this question.

David Roberts

In other words, if I could just hone it a little bit, is this very specific thing you're doing โ€” which I think is like one of the things I like about what you're doing. I've seen many, many, many socially minded groups sort of dissipate because they're doing a million things, none of them particularly impactful. So, I love it that you're focused on this one thing. And I just wonder, like, if you had 10x the budget, is there enough of this one thing that it could absorb 10x of your effort? Or if you had 10x the budget, are there other things you would branch out into?

Matt Traldi

I love this question. I'm so excited that you asked it. And, you know, how long we have another, like, two hours, right, for my answer on this? So, the first thing, just to say, I'm going to broaden the lens a little bit from Greenlight for a moment and say clean energy deployment and siting needs more support from climate philanthropy, not just for us, but across the ecosystem. Right now, this area of work gets a tiny, tiny fraction of giving.

David Roberts

Matt, it's crazy. This is the work. This is the thing. People are aware, for F's sake. You know, like...

Matt Traldi

That's right.

David Roberts

They're aware. Let's do stuff now.

Matt Traldi

That's right. This is where, you know, if you care about emissions reduction, which I do. Right. This is where all of the emissions reduction is going to come in the next few years. And so, you know, again, just to say, you know, if you're a billionaire and you're listening to this, you know, of course, I welcome your support at Greenlight, but more generally, you know, come on in, the water is fine. There's a lot to do in the clean energy deployment space. And you know, we work a lot with local partners, as I mentioned. And, you know, local groups truly have very limited resources.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Matt Traldi

And they're pulled in a million directions. Tiny budgets, limited staff. And that stands in the way of doing this work.

David Roberts

Yeah. People underestimate how much just knowing a thing is happening โ€” like, I think people have it in their mind that, like, oh, there's this. There are these professional groups out there who are on top of these things, you know, like somebody is watching. But like, very often you find that nobody's watching and just doing what you're doing. Just going and saying, "Hey, there's a meeting two weeks from now." It doesn't sound like a lot, but it's amazing how much that can accomplish.

Matt Traldi

Absolutely. So then, on Greenlight in particular, the first thing I'd say is there's immense need. I mentioned that, you know, during our pilot period, we worked on 11 campaigns and we were approached about 200 different projects and that rate has continued.

David Roberts

Well, there's 20x. That's 20x your budget right there.

Matt Traldi

That's right. That's right. And you know, I'm an optimist about the clean energy transition. That is, I hope everyone listening to this feels a little jolt of optimism going into the holidays. I think we're 100% going to make this happen. The economics are on our side, the momentum is on our side. I think the next few years are going to be the best years in U.S. history for clean energy deployment, for energy deployment overall. I know that things can look a little grim if you look at national politics, but in this area, there's an enormous opportunity, an enormous amount to accomplish.

And the more deployment is growing, the more the industry is growing, the more need there is for this work. The more projects are getting blocked, the more local fights there are, all of that stuff. And so, we expect, you know, right now there are a couple hundred projects that move forward and also that get blocked every year. And we think within the next few years that'll be more like 600 or 700 that could get blocked.

David Roberts

So you did 11 in a year?

Matt Traldi

We've now done a couple dozen. 11 was during โ€” we had a pilot program of six months, yeah.

David Roberts

So, a couple dozen a year. But if there's 700 of them, we need a lot more of you.

Matt Traldi

We need a lot more. Next year, we're hoping to do 70 to 100 projects. That's our goal for next year. But, you know, really, we could be doing a lot more. A big part of that โ€” our model for engaging is very regionally focused. So, you know, with 10x the budget, we'd have 10 times as many campaign staff and more states and regions across the country. And that just allows for all the reasons that, you know, having someone based in a region, they know the partners, they know the social context, they're just able to support folks in communities who are actually showing up much more effectively.

Having someone in D.C. doesn't do it, right? So that's a big part of it. Also, the early warning system, this big research project of where are these critical milestones? When can people show up so that we stop losing by forfeit? That's something that's just a huge focus for us as we grow. And one other area that I would just kind of lift up as really important is about building more and more partnerships. So, you know, the places where we've been able to invest, like Pennsylvania, I mentioned earlier, in relationship building with partners, in kind of all collaborating together, that's where we're really able to have as much impact as possible.

And that takes time, it takes investment, takes work, all of that stuff, both from us and from the partner organizations. Obviously, the folks that we're working with. So those are just a few things. But I would say that we're not right now planning on becoming an organization that does 100 different things. We think this one thing is super important and local work to support people on the ground, groups on the ground in communities where clean energy is moving forward to win, to get these projects across the finish line.

David Roberts

This is facts on the ground, right?

Matt Traldi

That's right.

David Roberts

I mean, this is something I feel like just like the left, generally so enamored of words and ideas, and so neglectful of just facts on the ground and how much immense influence is exerted by facts on the ground. So, like every solar field you enable installed, makes literally everything else easier after that. Right? Like, you're changing the firmament here with every one of these, making all the other more specific jobs easier.

Matt Traldi

100%. And you know, this gets back to something you said early in the conversation, which is that we also have facts on the ground in terms of our movements, our movement infrastructure, and we haven't invested in local organizing, not just on clean energy, but more broadly as a movement. And one of the things that I'm most excited about Greenlight's work is that element of we're going into local communities that may not have had a ton of progressive advocacy work of any kind for quite some time and working with local partners.

David Roberts

Yeah, and those partnerships last after this fight is over, right? I mean, they persist.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And in the long term, I really think that another thing you said earlier in the conversation that I think people don't yet imagine the scale that we're going to be building at and that we need to build at, and it's going to be a massive transformation, not just for our energy system, but for our economy and in particular for these rural communities. Often utility scale, solar farm or wind farm, we're often talking about the biggest development of any kind that's happened in this rural county ever. And these are places that not all of them certainly, but many rural communities have declining population, declining tax base, they need development.

David Roberts

I mean, it's an ongoing threat to our politics.

Matt Traldi

That's right. And so, if there's a prospect of something that is great for the country, great for the world, and you can preserve these communities, you know, preserve the rural character of a community while also, you know, building this project, infusing new resources, etc., I think that's going to be really where the magic happens, because ultimately we won't โ€” we talked about this earlier. Communities are not deciding "Is clean energy good?" They're deciding "Should we build this project here?" We won't build the clean energy transition unless the answer that many of them come up with is yes.

And that answer is going to be because they actually benefit, you know, that they actually are, you know, they're not just bearing a cost for the rest of us. So that's, I think, what's so exciting about this. And I do see 10x, 20x. You know, I don't worry about us running out of clean energy deployment work to do anytime soon.

David Roberts

All right, well, on that note, we'll wrap it up. I just want to reiterate how important this work is at our particular historical juncture. This is the inflection point here. The technology work has been done to a large extent, a lot of the policy work has been done, and now it's really just block and tackle, putting the stuff in the ground. So, thank you so much for doing this work. And like you say, if you're a billionaire listening, please wake up to the need for this kind of work and open your checkbook. All right, thanks so much, Matt.

Matt Traldi

Thank you.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Thermal energy networks are the next big thing

In this episode, I revisit thermal energy networks with HEET's Zeyneb Magavi and Eversource's Eric Bosworth. What was once a novel concept โ€” replacing gas networks with shared ground-source heat pumps โ€” is now being piloted across the country. We explore the technology's remarkable efficiency and its potential to revolutionize heating and cooling โ€” and give gas utilities a second life as thermal utilities.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Happy New Year, everyone. This is Volts for January 1, 2025, "Thermal energy networks are the next big thing." I'm your host, David Roberts. Back in April 2022, did a podcast on what was, at the time, a somewhat obscure idea: replacing natural gas networks with networks of pipes carrying water that's heated and cooled using the Earth's shallow crust. Rather than each building having a furnace, each would have a heat pump, pulling heat from, or dumping heat into, the circulating water.

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One of the most intriguing aspects of the idea is that natural gas companies themselves could manage the transition, becoming heating and cooling companies โ€” thermal energy companies โ€” rather than merely natural gas companies. It would give them an alternative, in a decarbonizing world, to simply going out of business.

Zeyneb Magavi & Eric Bosworth
Zeyneb Magavi & Eric Bosworth

Since then, that obscure idea has caught fire. The first operational pilot is up and running in Massachusetts and may be expanded. Dozens of other utilities are contemplating or launching pilots. Dozens of states are considering bills that would echo the one just passed in Massachusetts, which makes it legal for natural gas companies to become thermal companies.

Today, this is one of the buzziest ideas in energy, so I am psyched to revisit it.

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One of my guests on that first pod, the pioneer of this idea, is back today: Zeyneb Magavi was the research director for HEET, a nonprofit working on the transition away from gas; she is now its executive director. My other guest is Eric Bosworth, who manages clean technologies at Eversource Energy, the Massachusetts gas utility that is running a thermal network pilot. We're going to get into all the details. Hop in!

Let's do this. With no further ado, Zeyneb Magavi, Eric Bosworth, welcome to Volts. Thank you for coming.

Zeyneb Magavi

Thank you.

Eric Bosworth

Great to be here.

David Roberts

So, Zeyneb, this is, you know, like I said in my intro, a hot idea these days. Very buzzy. Everybody in our little world knows about this. But in the unlikely event that there's some listener out there who doesn't know what we're talking about, maybe you could just start by describing in general terms what a thermal energy network is and how does it work? What are the pieces of it?

Zeyneb Magavi

Absolutely. It's both a hot idea and a cool idea.

David Roberts

Yes, exactly.

Zeyneb Magavi

Sorry, terrible pun. Yeah. It starts with, you know, the ground source heat pump, which a heat pump moves temperature from one place to another. It can move heat in or heat out. So then you get heating or cooling. And of course, like, you know, your refrigerator is a heat pump. This is a known technology. What we're doing with the thermal energy network is we are putting the most efficient heat pump โ€” which is often called a geothermal heat pump or a ground source heat pump โ€” we're putting that most efficient heat pump in the building for the customer.

And then we're having the temperature supply for that heat pump be coming from the street, from utility infrastructure. And that infrastructure is your thermal network. And in the cases we're talking about, owned and managed by a thermal utility, AKA your gas utility. And then the temperature of that network is managed and balanced by geothermal boreholes and by other thermal resources. So the minute you have that network.

David Roberts

We're going to get into that. But at least in the beginning, you're getting the heat from just a series of holes.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, and it's really, really important to clarify that the word geothermal causes a bit of confusion. A lot of people think about Iceland. So, the thing we're talking about is just like you said earlier, it's the shallow, everywhere-form of geothermal. It's the stored thermal energy in the bedrock under our feet, and it's everywhere. What we're doing is basically putting a tube down into the bedrock and back up and using it like a radiator.

David Roberts

Right. So, just so people can envision it, a normal ground source heat pump is just connected to a series of pipes that run in your yard, basically. Your yard or whatever. It's just, you know, you dig down, run pipes to dump heat or pick up heat. This is like that, except the network of pipes in your yard is in fact a giant network of pipes that runs throughout your entire neighborhood. But otherwise, it's just a ground source heat pump; it's just that the heat network it's drawing from is neighborhood-wide rather than just your yard.

Zeyneb Magavi

And networking the ground source heat pumps, a little bit like networking computers; yes, it's the same thing, but you also get some new things that happen.

David Roberts

What is the line drawn โ€” and is there a clear line โ€” between this and district heating? Which, of course, is not a hot new idea. It's a hot, very old idea. Is there a technical distinction?

Zeyneb Magavi

Another really good question. And, of course, the Romans did district heating, right?

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah.

Zeyneb Magavi

There has been so much confusion with the terms thermal energy network, geothermal network, district heating. I recently published a taxonomy paper to try to clarify. What I will say, I believe to be the clarifying, correct language is that district energy systems have this generation nomenclature. They go first generation, second generation, third generation. There's this really interesting thing that happens in district energy naming where you go from a fourth-generation district energy to fifth-generation and you get this step change where it goes from a central source to a distributed source. When you get to that fifth generation, now we're in the zone for this technology.

In the typical definitions in the literature, fifth generation is a two-pipe system. It is dramatically different from fourth generation, which by the way, can have geothermal. You can have a fourth-generation heating district or cooling district that has geothermal, but you're still going to have a central source and central heat pump. When you go to that fifth generation, you're going to decentralize and you suddenly have both heating and cooling at the same time. Then what we did when we proposed the single pipe is take it one little step further, so it's a subset of fifth generation.

David Roberts

Oh, goodness.

Zeyneb Magavi

We took it one little step further, where it is more efficient, a little lower infrastructure cost, and it allows for a really straightforward growth model where you can add people on and off, customers on and off, and add loops to each other and kind of go utility scale. A utility growth model.

David Roberts

Right. You can build incrementally.

Zeyneb Magavi

So, for me, the thermal energy network is any of those ambient temperature heating and cooling networks. The ones that have geothermal energy on them are geothermal energy networks. We could shorten that to TENs and GENs if you wish.

David Roberts

This is a lot; there's a lot to hold in. I think maybe the best way to think about it is traditional, sort of old-school district heating, which has been around for a long time, typically uses a central heating source. Sometimes that's geothermal, sometimes it could be something else. And then that heat is carried to all the houses through the pipes. So there's a central heater and then a bunch of pipes. What you're doing with this is distributing the heat source. So instead of a single heat source, there's a bunch of boreholes. And you're distributing the heat pump too.

Instead of one central heat pump, there are heat pumps in every home. Is that a good way to think about it?

Zeyneb Magavi

It's beautifully said. I'm going to have to poach from you.

David Roberts

Thank you.

Eric Bosworth

And I think one of the really interesting distinctions here, and what separates a system like this from previous iterations, is it allows for individual customers to heat and cool on their own cadence versus all customers having to use the same type of energy. So, on previous district systems, everybody is heating at the same time. Because it's single directional, you're sending the heat out. On a system like this, I can have one customer running heating and I can have another customer running air conditioning. And so it's flexible in that everyone doesn't have to be using the same type of energy at the same time.

David Roberts

I see, I see. So, you retain this sort of individual control over your thermostat.

Eric Bosworth

And I'm sure Zeyneb would love to talk about the efficiency gains that you get for that. When you have customers doing, you know, simultaneous heating and cooling, those loads will actually cancel out in the pipe. You don't even need the ground. It makes for a very efficient system.

David Roberts

Right. So, if you're just taking heat out of water and somebody else is putting heat back into the water, you could do without even the boreholes. Right. You're just sort of like โ€” they're balancing each other out.

Zeyneb Magavi

And in fact, between the time we last talked to now, Xcel Energy, who's the gas and electric provider for Colorado Mesa, that oldest project we know of, they published a calculation that the system COP for that is 5.7 annually.

David Roberts

This is the coefficient of performance for those who don't know what that is, which is just sort of like, how many units of heat do you get out per unit of energy put in? And of course, like, I think this is the magic of heat pumps, so I just want to stop and sort of spell this point out. So, like for a natural gas furnace, you get less heat out than you put energy in. Almost any fossil fuel is like that. You lose some in the conversion. So its COP is like 0.9 or something like that. The magic of heat pumps is that you get more heat out than you put energy in.

That's the spooky thing about heat pumps, which means their COP is over 1. And the COP here is 5.7, which means you're getting 5.7 units of heat out for every unit of energy you put into the system. Which I'm assuming Zeyneb is the highest efficiency available of any heating system in the world. Is there such a thing as a better, more efficient heating system than that?

Zeyneb Magavi

I've been looking, being very obviously quite nerdy. I have heard a report of a similar system in Switzerland achieving a 7, but I have not yet actually seen the data. I'm very excited, and I will mention that Colorado Mesa reports a winter coefficient of performance of 8.9.

David Roberts

Oh, geez. So, while this gets to my next set of questions, because a lot of people, I think, when they hear this, they think, "Well, if you're putting a ground source heat pump in every home, why not just make them individual installations? Adding all the infrastructure of this pipe network adds a lot of work, adds a lot of CapEx, adds a lot of money. Do you get so much additional efficiency out of that that it makes it worth building that elaborate network?"

Eric Bosworth

This is one of the very first questions I asked when looking at this technology. And there's a couple of interesting benefits that you get out of networking the system. The first and most basic is that you can, for lack of a better term, right-size the bore fields for the load. So just speaking in rough numbers here, let's say we had 100 customers and they needed on average 1.5 boreholes to support their buildings. Well, you're going to end up putting two boreholes at every single home. You're not going to drill half a borehole. So, you end up drilling 200 holes to support those hundred homes.

David Roberts

Right?

Eric Bosworth

When you centralize, you may only need to drill 150 because you can size the central bore field for the aggregate load versus every single individual home. You lose a little bit of capacity, for lack of a better term, when you do it that way. That's before you look at the efficiency gains and all of the other benefits from networking the homes together. That's just simply capital cost.

David Roberts

Less digging. Is digging the boreholes a big chunk of the cost?

Eric Bosworth

It's a pretty large portion. If you look at the overall budget that we spent in Framingham, a very rough breakdown of it is about 30% of our capital budget was drilling the bore fields. Another 30% plus was building conversions and retrofits, so actually putting the heat pumps in. And then the remaining third or so was everything else: pipes in the street, pump house, instrumentation, civil work, you name it.

David Roberts

I would have thought that the retrofits would be a bigger piece. I mean, that's one of the things I trip on when I think about this. It's just like there are so many different kinds of buildings. You know, like retrofitting a building is a pretty bespoke process, sort of unavoidably. I would have thought that would be a bigger portion of the cost. So, I don't know if you can put a figure on this, either of you, but like the standard approach here to electrification of heating is just to slap an air source heat pump on each of these individual homes.

That's sort of like the easiest way to do it because you don't need a lot of planning that way, right? People can just do it when they're ready to do it. Do we have any idea, like numerically, how much greater the efficiency of a networked neighborhood like this is than a neighborhood full of individual air source heat pumps? Do we have that, is that measured somewhere?

Zeyneb Magavi

So, I'll start by going a little large on that answer. And there was a fabulous piece of research published by Oak Ridge National Labs in December of last year, one year ago, that asked that question, "What happens?" And it was only asking air source to ground source, that distinction. So, our default concept is to swap out an air source heat pump. Now we say, "Okay, instead we're going to swap out a ground source heat pump. What happens?" And they did the very interesting thing of actually looking at this from an integrated planning perspective and looking at the grid impacts.

And they came out with some numbers that were jaw-dropping, including an overall net present value cost savings on the grid for a mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps of, I believe, $1.7 trillion.

David Roberts

We're going to talk about the grid effects later. But, is a big chunk of that value the effects on the grid?

Zeyneb Magavi

That particular number is the grid impacts value, including like 100 parts of that. But in terms of the other aspects outside of the grid aspects, the cost per month, the customer costs for the energy is established lower than for the air source heat pump if you put in a geothermal heat pump. So, it is currently lower than the cost of gas to operate in most research and studies.

David Roberts

How dense does housing need to be to make this work? I'm just thinking intuitively, like as you get more rural, you have more distance between buildings, that's more piping, et cetera. So, do we โ€” I mean, we're still, you know, building early pilots, so I'm assuming there's a lot to learn here โ€” but do we have some sense of the required density?

Zeyneb Magavi

So, I'm going to turn it over to Eric, but I will say that really nailing down that threshold is part of what our research team is seeking to do with all the data collection from the demonstration projects now.

Eric Bosworth

I absolutely agree there is going to be a threshold or a limit where you get rural enough that the economics of running pipes between the buildings may not make sense. I've done a lot of work lately, kind of looking at our service territory and screening areas to try to figure out where are the best places to deploy these. And actually found some interesting things in going through that exercise, which is that even as you get very rural, most rural areas still have a city center. They've got a town hall, they've got a school, they've got a post office, they've got a downtown, for lack of a better term.

And these networks can still work in those areas. I mean, the beauty of them is that the energy source is local. So, you're not looking around to say, "Where's the transmission pipeline that I need to tie into? Or where is my upstream supply?" It really is, you can look at a small area and say, "Yes, we're in a rural community," but the numbers are penciling for this one or two-mile loop in the downtown of this rural area. And you know, maybe the people in the outskirts have a different solution that fits better for their individual property because they're a mile away from their closest neighbor.

But you know, those are the things I'm thinking through right now to try to figure out where and how I can deploy more of these.

Zeyneb Magavi

And I just want to add, David, a kind of speculative item to throw out there. When you are in that rural area with a mile between houses, really rough calculations that we haven't followed up on show if you do have a water system, your water system has enough distance horizontally underground between buildings that it can be your heat and cool.

David Roberts

Yes, I was going to ask, I'm curious how this infrastructure relates to other infrastructure. So, first being, if I have a series of natural gas pipes already underneath my neighborhood, can I reuse those pipes? Or, if I install one of these systems, am I ripping all of that infrastructure out and adding a new, different set of pipes?

Eric Bosworth

Always a fun question and a frequent one. You know, I like to emphasize that the types of plastic that we put in for geothermal are the exact same as the type we put in for gas work. It's one of the great benefits about this technology. The challenge with reusing gas pipe, and this is somewhat unique to our region, but we have a lot of old pipe. We've got cast iron in the ground, we've got steel in the ground, we've got all sorts of things in the region. And so, finding an area where you had plastic pipe of a relatively new vintage and it was the diameters that we needed, that may be a unicorn.

It's going to be very difficult to find that, especially over a large area. Right. You may be able to find one street that has the right diameter pipe that you may be able to reuse. But for our pilot and kind of how I'm thinking about it going forward, is get the geopipes in and get them going. I mean, you can size them properly, you can get them installed, and maybe not necessarily reusing.

David Roberts

Then do you just leave the natural gas pipes down there?

Eric Bosworth

Yeah, I mean, that's what happens with traditional pipe replacement these days, anyways. If you go in and "replace" an old cast iron pipe, what you're doing is you're laying a new pipe in the ground and then you're cutting and capping the old pipe. You're not actually yanking it out of the ground.

David Roberts

So we're just accumulating pipes slowly?

Zeyneb Magavi

This is a new version of the "Keep it in the ground" phrase; it's carbon. I will just comment that there are different regulatory prescriptions for this. So, for example, the first demonstration project in Massachusetts that Eric's referring to, there's actually an expectation and requirement by the regulators that any of the customers at the end of the two-year period can be made whole and have their old system returned. So this is not a demonstration of removing the gas system at all. There is a next demonstration project where there was explicit permission, where appropriate, to remove pipe or to move off pipe, not necessarily physically removing it.

So, just to clarify that, there's a lot of regulatory questions with regards to that actual transition and whether the pipe is physically removed, which is a totally different distinction.

David Roberts

And what about other infrastructure? Like, as we were talking about the rural areas. It's true, it's more cost to go between buildings that are a mile apart, but the water system does that. There are water pipes going to all these buildings already. Can you get dual use out of sewer and water pipes?

Zeyneb Magavi

So, I've been exploring that for years. I actually first tried to convince my water department in front of my house to let me do that. And the physical answer is yes, where you have enough distance, this is technically feasible. The question is again, regulatory. And of course, our water departments want to maintain a certain temperature range. And so, having clear rules and expectations around how and where you can do it and to what load, we are not there yet, but it is a great potential ahead of us. And I would also say that our sewer systems have waste thermal, and that is a really big opportunity we're trying to move forward with a lot of different people across the country. There's some amazing projects. Like, there's one in Colorado that has an entire thermal energy network running off of waste thermal from the sewer.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah. I mean, just to spell that out, like, you know, sewage is warm and we're otherwise wasting that heat. And, you know, this is one of the cool things I think about the development of this area is just we're starting to think about, "Where is all the heat? Where is all the waste heat around us?" And it turns out it's just like everywhere; there's heat all over the place.

Zeyneb Magavi

Can I pick up on that, David? This is a big thing that I've been thinking about and trying to figure out how to talk about more: this thermal opportunity. Yes, we're talking today about this thermal network infrastructure. But part of what it's doing is putting thermal energy on the table. And we've kind of been ignoring it. It's the missing piece of the puzzle that's going to get us to where we need to go.

David Roberts

This is why I love hot rocks.

Zeyneb Magavi

Right. There's that stored thermal that we're talking about in the bedrock that has always been there, the solar millennia. But there's also what I've started calling anthropogenic thermal. I think this is a thing that we haven't been talking about. There are two forms of that. There's that waste thermal we just mentioned, and that's not just sewer, it's our industrial waste heat, and another. And then there's this beautiful other thermal that's terribly depressing. And it's the excess thermal energy due to human-caused climate change.

David Roberts

Oh, that heat.

Zeyneb Magavi

And it's enormous, right? And I just like, I don't know how much you want to go into this, but all of humanity apparently uses about half a zettajoule. And our oceans are absorbing five zettajoules a year since 1970. Over 300 in the bedrock, in the oceans, and the rivers. And so, all this excess thermal energy, we can use it with heat pumps, with thermal networks, we can tap it.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's poetic. There's some poetic justice to that, or I don't know what the term is.

Zeyneb Magavi

There is.

David Roberts

So, Eric, this is a question for you: Intuitively, this seems like a pretty short leap for a natural gas company. You're dealing with pipes, you're circulating fluids, you're interacting with customers, you're charging customers monthly rates. Like a lot of the pieces of this look similar to pieces of what you're already doing. But of course, what do I know about running a natural gas utility? So maybe you could tell us, like, how big of a lateral leap is this?

Eric Bosworth

"Well, to be fair, we're on the same page as you because that was essentially the pitch that we made to our regulators back when we asked for permission to do this project. I mean, for a little bit of context here, the state of Massachusetts has set strong goals towards decarbonization. And, you know, we as a company are aligning with those goals. And so, we asked ourselves, "If we're transitioning over to clean and zero carbon offerings for our customers, what does that mean for the gas company, the gas industry, the gas workforce?" And to your point, this technology checks a lot of the boxes of what we do day in and day out with our traditional offerings.

And so, we really made the pitch that we'd be a good candidate for owning and operating a system like this. This is what we do every day. And we looked at the skills required to install and operate a shared network geothermal system like this, and we basically had them all in house already, save for drilling some boreholes. So, a great example of this is the mile of pipe and the service lines that we laid down in Framingham to connect all of these customers up. All of that work was actually done by one of our traditional gas contractors.

We brought them out on site, we showed them the geothermal pipe, which is the exact same plastic resin that's used with gas pipe work. And we basically, you know, had a one-day training with the pipe vendor that came out and double-checked that the guys knew what they were doing and that the fusion techniques were appropriate. And we were off to the races. We were, you know, trenching in the street just like we would every day with regular work. Laying down the geothermal pipe, pulling service lines. And in terms of work streams, that one was by far the one that was done most efficiently and most on budget.

You know, it kind of came in right where we knew it would because this is what we do every day.

David Roberts

Right. Pipes or pipes, since we're talking about it, tell us a little bit more about the pilot than the Framingham pilot. For starters, how big is it? Like, how big of an area are we connecting up with this?

Eric Bosworth

Yeah, so at a high level, we have about a 1-mile loop of pipe. It's a continuous circuit in a neighborhood of Framingham. To give you an idea on load context, we're talking about 375 tons of peak heating or cooling load. It's pretty well balanced between the two seasons.

David Roberts

Is it all residential?

Eric Bosworth

It's a mix, actually. So, what we wanted to do is, first and foremost, we wanted a nice mix and load for efficiency and balancing of the system. But we also wanted a good cross-section of our customer base. We didn't want to just do residential and then have somebody come in and say, "Yeah, but most of your service territory has commercial and multifamily and all of these other things." So, we did our best to capture all of that within this one-mile loop. And, happy to say, we, I think we hit the mark there. We've got about 22 residential homes.

We have five commercial buildings that range from large โ€” there's a portion of a school connected to the loop โ€” all the way down to a small business cabinet shop. And then the balance of the load is about 108 low-income Framingham Housing Authority apartments. So, we've got every customer type. We've got customers that were on gas, oil, electric resistance. We're going to get a lot of good data out of this set.

David Roberts

So, you are laying these pipes next to the existing natural gas pipes, and then you're going into all these buildings and pulling out old furnaces and old resistance heaters, replacing them with heat exchangers, with heat pumps. And then you're telling everybody involved at the end of what, two years, "If you don't like this, we'll come restore your original setup." Is that the idea?

Eric Bosworth

Yeah, that was built into the contract, actually. So, we tried our best to indemnify our customers, to basically say, "We're here to gather data, we're here, we're doing a pilot. We're confident you're going to love it and it's going to work well. But here is your 'Break in case of emergency' clause in your contract if you need it."

David Roberts

Has anyone asked for their original setup back?

Eric Bosworth

No, they have not. And I'm fairly confident customers will be happy with these systems going through the first winter and then the first summer here as well.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, get some AC. I'm curious, if you're a sort of efficiency-minded contractor, when you're switching out systems, are you also going to do some envelope sealing or whatever? There's usually other things involved with this. Is this purely pulling out an old furnace and adding a new one? Is there any additional work being done on these buildings?

Eric Bosworth

Oh, there's a lot of work being done depending on the building. You mentioned it earlier, but building retrofits are not easy and simple. In some cases, they actually were; I'll give the example of the schools that had rooftop units feeding a distributed air system. Basically, in that case, what we did is we came in with a crane and we pulled the old gas-fired unit off the roof. We dropped the new heat pump in and we piped the water lines to it. We reused the entire building system. But in other cases, we were upgrading main electrical panels, we were running ducting, we were insulating, we were air sealing.

We remediated a bit of knob-and-tube wiring in one case. So, there were certainly some skeletons in the closet on these.

David Roberts

But you got everybody? There were no deal breakers; like everybody in the area is on the system?

Eric Bosworth

Everybody who wanted to participate and signed a customer contract, you know, we didn't turn anyone away. I'll put it that way. There were some more challenging conversions for sure, but again, we wanted to demonstrate what it takes to wholesale convert neighborhoods.

David Roberts

The big question here is about costs and who's paying for what. So, my first question is, who paid for the pilot? Because I'm guessing the customers here are not paying to have these things done. So, who's paying for the pilot? And then, if this shifts from pilot to whatever real thing, then who pays?

Eric Bosworth

To answer your first question, the pilot was funded through a gas rate case, actually. So, it is being recovered via our gas rates as a demonstration pilot.

David Roberts

The whole Eversource rate base is sharing the cost here?

Eric Bosworth

The whole NSTAR gas rate base. Yes.

David Roberts

Ah, got it.

Zeyneb Magavi

All of the customers are in some tiny part contributing. Yes. And then, they have a participation monthly fee, but it is ratepayer-based, and that was the very first permissioning. That was part of the discussion, was the value of the demonstration project to the gas ratepayer base.

David Roberts

Right. And so, is the idea that if you continue with this, keep doing this, that is going to be the standard, like all the costs are going to be shared across the entire rate base throughout the process?

Zeyneb Magavi

So, to me, there is some beauty in this, in that if we proceed with moving buildings off of fossil fuel heating in Massachusetts, as is our climate mandate, we will have a shrinking ratepayer base with unfortunate spiking costs which would be a really challenging equity situation and affordability situation. It's that problem of the last grandmother holding the bill for โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah, yes. This is, of course, a problem. Anywhere you want to phase out gas is that you need to do it chunkily. Right. It can't just be individual consumer decisions.

Zeyneb Magavi

It's chunkily. But this approach allows for stabilization of that ratepayer base because as you are shrinking streets with gas, you're increasing streets with geo. And if the decision is made to leave it as a merged ratepayer base, then in the end, you know, when you have fewer gas customers and more geo customers, those geo customers are stabilizing the gas customers.

David Roberts

Are they paying as much as they were when they were gas customers? Like, presumably, this, the whole promise of this, is hyper-efficiency. Like, theoretically, they should be paying less, right?

Eric Bosworth

So, in the case of the pilot, the short answer is yes. You know, we do have a very small nominal fee that we're charging as kind of a customer service fee for the geothermal system. But to give you an idea, we're talking like $9 a month for a residential customer. The whole point of the fee was to establish a billing relationship with customers that may have been on oil previously and not received a bill from Eversource so that they get something that says, "Eversource Geothermal" on it and we establish that relationship.

From an operating standpoint, we're obviously just starting to get data on a heating season here as we get some colder months. So, we can't say for sure with hard data, but we did look at like a 2-year previous consumption average annual usage on these customers and we ballparked what we thought they would use on geothermal for electricity. And pretty much across the board, there were savings for these customers. So, you know, from an operating standpoint, it looks like the electricity that is needed to run these ground source heat pumps is cheaper than their previous electricity and gas bill combined.

David Roberts

And if you undershot, it's fairly easy to just add more boreholes, right? Just incrementally add boreholes, I'm guessing.

Zeyneb Magavi

My prediction is that, you know, as is often true with utilities generally, they were cautious and there's going to be plenty of room for the additional customers that are now asking to join.

David Roberts

Well, this gets to a big question I had for you Eric, which is what is the โ€” I guess I don't know if customer acquisition is even really the right word in this context, but like you have to go to an area and talk everyone in the area into doing this basically, right? So what is that process like if there are holdouts who just say no, can you just build around them?

Eric Bosworth

So, in terms of the pilot, you know, customer acquisition is probably a totally accurate phrase here. And, in full transparency, we actually retrained and reutilized folks internally that were traditionally on the gas sales team. So, these were people that were going out and going door to door on gas expansion projects and were now trained to sell geothermal in the neighborhood. And what we did is we took the same approach. We went out into the community, we generated marketing materials, informational materials, we had fact sheets and all kinds of information. And then we approached the customers and said, "Hey, we're doing this pilot, here's what we're doing and why. Do you have any questions about geothermal in general? Do you have any questions about what we're doing?"

And we took the time to sit down and speak with them. And honestly, the results were overwhelmingly positive. In the neighborhood, you know, on the loop route, I think we had about an 80% positive rate on customer acquisition. And of those that we didn't get to sign up, the vast majority were because we weren't able to talk to them. We just never managed to connect with the customer. We had one customer who had just redone their HVAC system that year and basically said, "I'm not going through that again. I, you know, I just tore up my house. I can't." But by and large, they were all very positive.

David Roberts

Well, the reason I ask is that obviously, the goal here, the larger goal, is to shut off gas. Right? The larger goal is to shut off the gas system. And if you have a single customer using gas, you have to have your whole gas system running. So, there is kind of a, like, you ultimately are going to have to have some ability to pressure people, right?

Zeyneb Magavi

I'll jump in and speak to that because that's not what the demonstration project in Framingham is testing. And it is, of course, a really interesting question as we face a kind of utility evolution. And of course, there's a lot of conversation around customer choice. And customers do have a choice, but they don't have a choice among multiple different energies from one utility. They have a choice with one utility of whether to hook up or to not hook up. Right. Your electric utility doesn't say, "Well, here's all the forms of energy we have. Radiance, we have..." And so that question of how we have regulation and laws around it is beginning to be talked about across the country.

And the question of how the obligation to serve, and however it's expressed either in statute or in regulation in each state, whether that can be expanded to include this thermal service so the obligation to serve a customer is met by providing this more modern thermal. So, one state made a first go at that. And then, Massachusetts has just also, in its most recent climate bill signed by the governor last week, has explicitly turned over some clarification of that obligation to serve to the Department of Public Utilities. I think this is a conversation that is very live and hot.

How are we going to both ensure that the equity aspects of, of course, serving every customer on the infrastructure be met also with this evolution of the kind of aggregated good of a single infrastructure?

David Roberts

But, like, I guess I just come back to, like, if Eversource shows up at my door and says, "We're not a gas utility anymore, we're now a hot water utility, we'll hook you up with hot water or you're on your own." Is that the idea?

Zeyneb Magavi

That is not resolved yet. All I can tell you โ€” so that is a conversation that needs to happen over time with every stakeholder involved. And I will tell you that I have a vision in my head of something happening a little bit like what we see today with new gas pipe where, you know, the door hangers come out and a year ahead of time they let you know, "Well, you know, we're going to be, you've got a leaky pipe and we're going to be upgrading your infrastructure in X month of X year. And here are the things we need to do. We need to get into your basement. We need to, you know..."

And I think some version of that, with a time delay, with time for the customers to make decisions to engage, to be supported with provision of all necessary elements, will happen with this upgrade where you'll get a notification that the street is switching to modern thermal to meet state mandates and deliver a safer, more affordable energy. Here are the steps and here's what's going to happen. And we're going to support you. And you can choose not to. You can get off of our utility. That's always your choice.

David Roberts

But then there will be no gas utility that you can then resort to, right, gas will not be among your choices?

Zeyneb Magavi

You can choose at that point to get a propane tank or other tank.

David Roberts

Right. You can buy your own gas.

Zeyneb Magavi

So again, this is me speculating, not a regulator or a state or a utility.

David Roberts

Eric, I mean, you're in the utility. You obviously have to be sensitive about this. But like, what is the utility thinking about this issue?

Eric Bosworth

Absolutely. And one thing I'd like to point out, Zeyneb did just mention propane or other delivered fuels. One interesting thing that I've been thinking about is, you kind of, not avoid, but you can spend some time solving this problem here if you're deploying these systems in areas that don't have any existing US utility service. Right. We still have something on the order of โ€” and Zeyneb, correct me if I'm wrong โ€” I think it's about 40% of the customers here in Massachusetts are still on delivered fuels. They're on heating oil and propane.

David Roberts

Oh, wow.

Eric Bosworth

And this is entire communities in some cases. This isn't just one-off customers.

David Roberts

That's unusual, though. That's mostly the Northeast. Right. Where that is still...

Zeyneb Magavi

I don't think it's that unusual.

David Roberts

Huh.

Zeyneb Magavi

71 towns, I believe, in Massachusetts don't have gas.

Eric Bosworth

Connecticut's similar.

David Roberts

I mean, unusual on a national level. Like, it's the Northeast of the country where that is mostly still the case, as I understand it. But I could be wrong about that.

Zeyneb Magavi

I'm not sure. I'd have to look up the numbers, but I think it's really the denser, more urban areas that have gas infrastructure.

David Roberts

And so, is the idea, Eric, that you always, like, you don't want to show up at a customer's door and say, "Hey, we're switching from gas to hot water now. You have to personally purchase a heat pump." So, is the idea that the cost of putting heat pumps in, you know, say you're going to expand this to a new neighborhood, you're going and knocking on doors, you tell them that it's going to happen, is the idea that the entire rate base will share the cost of all these new heat pumps? It's not the individual customers who will have to pay for this, right?

Like, because otherwise, you're just going to get a bunch of customers saying no, right, if they have to pay for it.

Eric Bosworth

Yeah, and I think it's a question that we're trying to answer with the data from Framingham, honestly. You know, the way we framed the pilot initially was we're going to pay for absolutely everything because we want to make it as easy as possible for customers to say yes and get the data. Going forward, whether, you know, we're doing some program like an expansion on Mass Save, which is our energy efficiency program here in Massachusetts, to focus on the building side, or there's some other financial structure, for lack of a better term, that's what we're trying to work out with, you know, with the state, with our regulators, with our stakeholders, because I don't think we have the data right now to be able to clearly answer that.

Zeyneb Magavi

I will just add to that, that it's my opinion that the building transition will not happen if the entire cost burden of the building transition is borne up front by building owners. And if it does โ€”

David Roberts

Yes, I think that's fair to say.

Zeyneb Magavi

If it does, it will be massively inequitable.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Zeyneb Magavi

And so, really understanding how to appropriately finance that building transition, having the utility in the mix in this case, I think that's a really interesting open question. We're trying a lot of different models across the country.

David Roberts

Well, has anyone pitched that this ought to be part of state taxes, that it ought to be broadened beyond the rate base to taxpayers? That should pick up because, you know, theoretically, they're all โ€” all taxpayers are benefiting.

Zeyneb Magavi

I think that conversation has certainly been had. I don't think it's been directly filed. But one very wonky idea is a question of using securitization to drop the cost of this infrastructure and use these cost "savings" to cover low-income building transitions.

David Roberts

Interesting. Yeah, it seems like there's a lot of room for financial innovation.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah.

David Roberts

A lot of unanswered questions.

Zeyneb Magavi

And I think one of the pieces that I think is coming to light as we begin to do actual decarbonization is that it's not just the heat pump and the weatherization, which we kind of understand what we need to do and understand how we're going to the options for financing. It's also, particularly in our lovely Northeast, it is the hundred years of delayed maintenance that we hit in a number of the buildings.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Zeyneb Magavi

And it's that mold, asbestos, and code violations.

David Roberts

The utility can say, "We'll pay for the heat pump." But then, where does the utility's obligation end? Like, do they also do the envelope? Do they also... You know what I mean? Each of these old buildings is a potential sinkhole of money.

Eric Bosworth

And just to clarify here, this isn't a problem unique to geothermal. Regardless of whether the utility is involved or not, if you want to mass deploy air source heat pumps, you still have to tackle the building envelope.

David Roberts

True.

Eric Bosworth

I mean, it's a problem no matter what technology platform you choose.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah. This is a question, and no offense to you, Eric, but is there any particular reason โ€” like cities also know how to lay pipes and distribute water. So, there's no reason that this has to be done by natural gas utilities. Right? I mean, I'm even wondering if there's any particular reason other than the sort of political economy reasons of like it's going to reduce their opposition obviously if they have something to do. But, like on the merits, is there a reason that we want natural gas companies to be in charge of this or should we be more agnostic?

Zeyneb Magavi

Well, I will say that I started out quite agnostic and approached a lot of municipalities in addition to the gas utilities and others. I mean, the technology will work no matter who installs it. I think the pieces that are critical to that question, it's not just the political economy of transforming a gas utility into a driver of decarbonization, a deliverer of decarbonization, but also it's that really critical conversation about workforce and skill sets.

David Roberts

Yes, I meant to ask that earlier.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, so there's that workforce piece which we can open up. There's also a kind of skill set in the energy system question. There's just a huge amount of policy experts on the electric grid and quite significantly fewer on the gas grid. And yet, some of the load management, seasonal storage, and other aspects that the gas system provides our overall energy system actually really match and mirror this thermal system.

And I see more synergy than even just the workforce in the transformation of gas to geo, but in a kind of practical, hard reality way. I will say that our municipalities, though many are interested and we are engaged with a number, are often resource-strapped with a lot of other challenges in our world. And the sheer incentive of an existing thermal utility with existing relationships from regulators and so on is another advantage.

David Roberts

Eric, and you have the workforce for this? Like, I'm trying to figure out if there are any novel kinds of workers required here. Like, you have pipe people and I don't know, is there something about heat pumps that require some new training? What is the workforce situation?

Eric Bosworth

So, you're absolutely correct from a pipe perspective. Just to give you an idea, we put something like 100 miles of plastic pipe down a year right now. But that being said, drilling is definitely a novel skill set that the utility does not undertake day to day.

David Roberts

Right.

Eric Bosworth

I had the fortunate privilege of, you know, my first career was actually in upstream oil and gas. So, I came into this with quite a bit of experience. And I kind of like to say I'm that transition story, moving from traditional fossil fuel work to clean energy now.

David Roberts

Yeah. Step by step.

Eric Bosworth

It's not something that exists generally within the utility. And so, drilling workforce is one and then even the building work, not to harp too much on it, but we're generally not in customers' homes as a matter of day-to-day work. We have a clear demarcation point with our meter or our valves or whatever it is. And we say anything downstream is the customer's responsibility. And so, that was a bit of a unique one as well: dealing with HVAC contractors and electricians and being in customers' homes.

David Roberts

Well, the people who are involved in that feel a lot of sympathy for you right now. I have a feeling that's a whole briar patch, as they say. Are you, I mean, and this is also, it's probably too early to know this either, Zeyneb, maybe you could chip in here. But I'm wondering if there are economies of scale here. Like, is this going to get cheaper as we do it more?

Zeyneb Magavi

Yes.

David Roberts

Or is it in some sense bespoke to individual buildings and communities? You know, there's a certain, like, in a sense, every building and community is unique. So, how sort of modular and replicable is this? Are we going to get cost declines over time?

Zeyneb Magavi

I'm so excited you asked that. And I think we can point to Colorado Mesa for some initial data. I always like to go to the data. And they showed that there was an incredible drop in cost per ton between the first loop and the second loop attached.

David Roberts

And that's just learning by doing, that's just figuring out how?

Zeyneb Magavi

There's a learning curve, yes. But there's also something inherent to the infrastructure where the first one has the larger pump station, and then the second one is actually, in part, thermally stabilized by the first. And that efficiency of the aggregated load calculation increases as you increase the number of buildings.

David Roberts

So, the next increment is going to be cheaper.

Eric Bosworth

We've ballparked it.

Zeyneb Magavi

We were lucky enough to design a second loop through a Department of Energy grant for the City of Framingham's loop.

Eric Bosworth

Yeah.

David Roberts

When you say a second loop, you mean not going to the same buildings, a bunch, a new block of buildings?

Eric Bosworth

Yeah, and just at a very high level, you know, rough orders of magnitude, we're going to presumably about double the size and capacity of our system. So, we will double the load on it at about half the cost of the original.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Eric Bosworth

So, yeah, we're looking at pretty significant cost reductions. And to Zeyneb's point, a lot of it is around the fixed infrastructure that we've already got. So, we have a pump house, we have instrumentation, we have controls. All of that is already in place. But also, we're going to have to do less drilling for those customers because we've presumably got a little bit of spare capacity on the main loop. And we have that thermal stabilization that Zeyneb mentioned where, you know, we're going to swing through the peaks a little bit easier with more mass in the system and more customers connected to it.

David Roberts

Right. It's that point you made about 1.5 boreholes. Right. Just expanded to large numbers. Like you're going to. You need fewer boreholes as you have more customers.

Zeyneb Magavi

It's actually even more than that, to get a wee bit nerdy for a second โ€” it's kind of cool. So, it's not just the boreholes. Remember, we have three parts: We have the thermal infrastructure loop in the street. Then we have the thermal resources, which in this case are boreholes. And what we're seeing and understanding is that the thermal loop itself is like a moving thermal energy storage mechanism.

David Roberts

Yeah, sure.

Zeyneb Magavi

And so, you've got this thermal inertia on that loop. As you grow the system and you get the increased number of customers, you're actually also increasing your thermal storage on the system that's increasingly stabilizing and moving the time boundary of the load out.

David Roberts

So, you need less incremental new heat source for each new customer. Is there a horizon point there where you no longer need to do any boreholes at all? Like, I don't know, how many?

Zeyneb Magavi

I doubt that.

David Roberts

You know, I don't know how big these things could get.

Eric Bosworth

I doubt there's a horizon point, but there is, you know, interestingly, we can add marginal customers without drilling for the most part. And what that allows us to do is we can actually decouple the drilling and the capacity addition with the load addition. What I mean is, I may drill 20 or 30 boreholes in a summer to add capacity to the system. But I can be adding customers all through the year and I don't have to wait for those boreholes to be drilled. I can do them asynchronously.

David Roberts

This is interesting. So, Zeyneb, we're running a little bit short on time here, but I wanted you or you and Eric to talk about just where this is popping up outside of Massachusetts. Like last time we talked in 2022, I think the Framingham Pilot was mostly a gleam in your eyes. And that was it, that was all that was going on. Now there's all kinds of things going on. So give us a little bit of an overview of โ€” there's a bunch more utilities investigating this. There's a bunch more states. Let's start there.

What is a state law? What do you want from a state legislation?

Zeyneb Magavi

Well, that essential permissioning allows a gas utility and/or other utilities to build this infrastructure and sell thermal energy.

David Roberts

And that requires legislation everywhere?

Zeyneb Magavi

Not necessarily. We do everything on a state-by-state basis in this country, as you know.

David Roberts

Yes. So, fun in energy.

Zeyneb Magavi

There are projects; there are projects that are in states where it's not as much of a concern. But at the moment, we have eight states that have passed this gas-to-geo law permission.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Zeyneb Magavi

With some of them having other elements, of course. And those are, let's see, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington State, California, Maryland. I hope I didn't miss any.

David Roberts

And this is all just, this is all just saying, "You, natural gas utility, if you so desire, can become a thermal utility legally." That's just what the law says.

Zeyneb Magavi

To be clear, each law is its own.

David Roberts

Or is this, "You have to become a thermal utility"?

Zeyneb Magavi

For example, some of them mandate demonstration projects, some of them do not. Every state is a petri dish, right? There are five more filing this year that I know of, and there's a whole advocacy network we do together with allies. And there's so many great organizations and people across the country now involved in driving this forward where they are. And I just can't even say enough about that. There are 20.

David Roberts

There's no geography where this couldn't work. Right? I mean, this is more or less universal. Right? I mean, any, with enough density.

Zeyneb Magavi

So, it can absolutely work anywhere. And what I would say is the question is the payback period. And so, where you have very small heating and cooling loads, your payback period is longer. And it may not be the wisest economic choice, but it will work. Sure.

David Roberts

You might be better off with an air source heat pump in a very mild climate.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, and it's not that it won't work. Yes, this will work anywhere. It's the everywhere geothermal. But it doesn't necessarily make a wise infrastructure investment everywhere.

David Roberts

Right. Is it safe to say that the financials will look better in colder climates, in more extreme climates? Is that fair to say?

Zeyneb Magavi

In hotter climates, more extreme and or very balanced, are going to generally look better. I think we're going to get a lot more data coming out with potential studies soon. But, I just want to add that there are 20 pilots filed with commissions for utilities to build many more that are outside of that. And, there are 29 gas utilities meeting regularly in an amazing coalition to consider a geothermal future.

David Roberts

And this is geographically spread all over the place or is this mostly Northeast?

Zeyneb Magavi

No, no, no, no. It's really important to realize that the geothermal heat pump, one of the center points of that world, is Oklahoma. And actually, they've got an amazing pilot moving forward. So, it is all over the country. In Framingham, the spray paint on the street for this infrastructure is purple. And I think that's awfully symbolic because this technology is all over the country. A huge portion of the industry, including a lot of the geothermal heat pump manufacturers, are in the Midwest and the West. And it is really a nonpartisan technology.

We apparently can agree on this.

David Roberts

My eyebrow goes up. Let me ask this. If I was in a state and a utility that did not care about climate change at all.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah.

David Roberts

And did not care particularly about pollution.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yep.

David Roberts

Only cared about money. Cheapest possible system. Would I be interested in a system like this if I lived in a place like that?

Zeyneb Magavi

Absolutely. That's the beauty of it. We talk to groups, people, and utilities all the time that have a mindset that isn't focused on climate, that are putting first things like, you know, profitability, affordability, safety, resilience, reliability, energy security. Energy security is huge.

David Roberts

Maybe we should have said this. It's almost too obvious to point out, but it's worth saying. If your heat source is the shallow earth, it's always there. It's always the same temperature. There's no supply chain that can be cut off. There's no other country that can cut off your supply. You're not exporting money from your community to get it. So, it is the most predictable and steady source of energy you can find.

Zeyneb Magavi

And this is why Eric and I hosted a lovely tour for a delegation from Ukraine.

David Roberts

Huh?

Zeyneb Magavi

Yes.

David Roberts

Yeah, I guess those same advantages are true anywhere, really. Anybody who's stuck exporting money for fuel, for heat, you know, it's a big cherry.

Eric Bosworth

And there are some places in the world where they are heavily reliant on energy imports, specifically. And so, the value proposition of having localized energy and security โ€” we may not think about it as much here in the States because we've got local energy production โ€” but it can be massively important for other places in the world.

Zeyneb Magavi

We're seeing a lot of interest from around the world, and the IFC. There's a video that actually played at COP 29 that the Financial Times made. I think one of the statements was, "We've awakened a sleeping giant," and they had a video of the Framingham project. But really, looking at the kind of sustainable development goals aspects of this decarbonization pathway.

David Roberts

Right. And this is also something that's maybe too obvious to point out, but I'm going to point it out anyway. If you proceed on a consumer choice basis, as you noted earlier, you're going to start with the wealthiest people and work backwards, and you're going to be stranding the poorest people with the system costs of the system that's left over. So, doing this on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood, community-by-community way is the only way you can get your arms around the equity aspects of this. That's the only way you can control the equity aspects of this.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, very well said. And that's been central to HEET's effort from the beginning. We actually want to see it deployed first in the most vulnerable communities so that they get the safest, most affordable, best energy earliest. And I think that's where that question of who owns it, the gas utility doing that, adds that stabilization of the ratepayer base.

David Roberts

Yeah, and the stabilization of rates themselves. Just like, you know, this is something also that poor people have to think about more than probably most of the people listening to this pod, which is just fluctuations in energy costs because the price of natural gas is always changing.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah.

David Roberts

These are unpredictable and can be quite devastating to household budgets. And this is like, you know how much your heat and cooling is going to cost this year, next year, 10 years from now, it's going to be the same forever. That's like just that stability, never mind the level, just the stability itself is a huge advantage.

Zeyneb Magavi

And that's the kind of conversation that I hear over and over again. There are these amazing leaders in this industry who built the geothermal heat pump industry. They're all over the country. Like I mentioned, quite a few are in Oklahoma and, you know, one friend from Utah. These are the conversations I hear over and over that have been spreading the kind of pleasure and joy of this technology. It's about those elements. And it's only really recently in these conversations in the Northeast that it's become additionally connected to the effort to decarbonize in a different way. I think it's a multi-solving technology that's kind of practical.

And that's why I said, really, it is something everyone can get behind. Maybe not all for the same reasons, but that's kind of what I hope for, for the country. Right.

David Roberts

Two final questions. I always lie when I say that, but I mean it this time. Two final questions. One is, just say a few things. The pilot here, the heat source is geothermal boreholes, which are what, like a thousand feet? Something like that.

Eric Bosworth

600 to 700 depending on the hole. We, you know, not to go down the rabbit hole. Sorry for the pun. Some of them are deviated, which means we drilled them at an angle. Those are about 700ft total depth. A traditional vertical borehole on our system is 600.

David Roberts

Interesting. So that's the source of heat here and in most cases. But there are, as you mentioned in passing, Zeyneb, you could have the same distribution system hooked up to a different heat source. So maybe just say a little bit about the variety. Like, what kinds of things are people using as heat sources for these systems and could people theoretically use?

Zeyneb Magavi

Oh my goodness. There's a couple of wonderful products out there for capturing waste thermal, like we've talked about with sewage. But there's also a lot of wonderful opportunities to capture thermal energy from our bodies of water, aquifers, lakes, rivers, the sea. There's some titanium seawater heat pumps out there that have me really excited. I think we can maybe make the lobsters happier in Boston Harbor while heating part of Boston.

David Roberts

Oh, taking some of the heat out of the harbor?

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, it's a restoration effort.

David Roberts

And putting it into the houses, that's quite clever.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, and there's also really interesting, clever things once you begin to play with thermal energy and see thermal energy. Like Colorado Mesa, for example, creates cooling capacity in the summer by dumping heat at night into their irrigation system. It's the most cost-effective cooling I've ever seen. There are places where there's snow melt as a way to do the same thing. Like, there's a lot of fun opportunities.

David Roberts

You shift heat from one place to another. What about, like, just industrial? Has anybody hooked one of these systems up to, like, a data center or a factory of some sort?

Zeyneb Magavi

Big conversation. There are some projects in Europe. I think one of them I was most recently hearing about was looking at a milk pasteurization plant. We've looked at a brewery in Colorado as a fabulous thermal source. There's tons of opportunity for industrial waste heat capture. And I would say data centers is an obvious and exciting one. I know there are some geothermal greenhouses in a bunch of different ways all over the world, but having greenhouses off a data center is another one.

David Roberts

So, theoretically, any building you hook up to a network like this is going to receive the benefits. But also, some of them can be contributors. Right. They can be net contributors of heat because of processes in the building.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, so the buildings themselves are prosumers. They're both users and producers of thermal energy. This is why you need a thermal utility. In essence, by building this infrastructure, you've built a thermal market.

David Roberts

Yeah, I really think that, like you said, we've spent so long not thinking much about heat just because fossil fuels are cheap. This is an area where, once you start looking, you just find it all over the place. You find heat or cooling, spare heat or cooling all over the place, and it's just a matter of grabbing it. I think once you set up this network, people are going to start thinking, "Oh, what else can we attach to this?" Anything that produces or uses heat.

Eric Bosworth

And to be clear, it wasn't within the scope of our pilot, but I'm actively thinking about it a few years down the line when we're out of the pilot period. You know, what resources do I have nearby that I can tie into this network and potentially, you know, not drill more boreholes, but add load and expand it?

David Roberts

Right. Just balance it out.

Eric Bosworth

Yep.

David Roberts

Well, I meant to ask, are you greenlighted to do this beyond the pilot phase, or is that decision TBD?

Eric Bosworth

I will say that we do have the legislative authority to do it as a utility now, as Zeyneb pointed out. We are still a regulated utility. So, in order to spend money, we have to have that review by our regulators to go in front of them and get approval to do it, but, you know, no real legal hurdles to additional projects.

David Roberts

So, all you need is permission from your Public Utility Commission in Massachusetts.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, and I'm going to comment that we had a regulatory ruling on our Future of Gas docket that came out with a bit of a name change to a Beyond Gas framework here in Massachusetts. One of the two top paths forward that the commission flagged as of interest was geothermal networks. There's a lot of interest and excitement in the state. So, not only do they have legislative permission, and absolutely need regulatory permission, but there's a lot of excitement and obvious enthusiasm for this. Our commission issued the first ever geothermal network pipeline safety regulations.

David Roberts

Yeah, I didn't really ask much about safety because, like, what do you get? A hot water leak? Like, it seems like the risks here are somewhat limited.

Eric Bosworth

Not even hot water. To give you an idea.

David Roberts

Warm water leak.

Eric Bosworth

My expected temperature range is between about 40 degrees and 70 degrees. So, we're at relatively reasonable temperatures. I mean, we have about 20 to 30 psi on the system. It's not even high pressure. I mean, really, this is about service quality for the most part. You know, making sure the system is on and running efficiently and that it doesn't go down.

David Roberts

But you're pretty certain it's not going to explode and take out an entire city block like the natural gas system did to Seattle a few years ago.

Eric Bosworth

The worst-case scenario for me is my pumps shut off and my fluid stops moving, and we get out there and figure out how and why to put it back on.

David Roberts

Right. Okay, final question, which is one I've been meaning to get to, which is: let's talk a little bit about the grid impacts of this. So, one worry when you're talking about electrifying is in northern latitudes, in cold places, right now, winter heating, which is a huge amount of energy, is being done mostly with oil and natural gas. If you do that with electricity instead, then you risk creating this massive, massive spike of electricity use during the winter, which would be entirely new to those areas, and then you're having to update your grid, etc. So, I think the part of the appeal here is that a networked set of ground source heat pumps is going to consume much less electricity than the commensurate number of air source heat pumps.

And thus, you are to some extent forestalling that grid crisis. Is that a decent summary?

Zeyneb Magavi

I think so, absolutely. I think that the numbers that we're seeing in research are just really quite jaw-dropping.

David Roberts

Yeah, what is the savings when you move from a bunch of air source heat pumps to a bunch of ground source heat pumps that are linked up? Like, what is the scale of the savings?

Zeyneb Magavi

So, we don't actually have that number, but Eric can speak for the one project.

Eric Bosworth

Yeah. In terms of energy savings, we're expecting peak and annual load to be about half of what it would be on air source heat pumps with the same customers.

David Roberts

Interesting. So, that's just like half less grid infrastructure you're going to have to build to electrify Massachusetts.

Zeyneb Magavi

So, that's that project, and I just want to be really careful about what we say in claims. So, the numbers I do have are for individual ground source heat pumps which are, as we've discussed, these networked are even more efficient. This is a low-ball estimate, but for the country, it would be a 38% reduction in transmission lines, close to $1.7 trillion of savings. A 12% reduction in wholesale electricity cost, a 13% reduction in generation in Massachusetts, a 34% reduction in load in 2050.

David Roberts

Good grief.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah.

David Roberts

So, this just makes electrification easier, among the other things it does. It is a way of electrifying heating with low electricity.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah, exactly.

Eric Bosworth

And could actually, you know, kind of maybe looping back a little bit to the "Why the utility?" question could be used strategically in areas where we are constrained. Right. We're looking at this actively as a potential for "Maybe we don't have the grid capacity to roll out air source heat pumps in this town. What if we did geo and then didn't have to make any improvements?"

David Roberts

So you could target these things as kind of grid congestion easing tools?

Eric Bosworth

Yep.

Zeyneb Magavi

A tactical thermal transition.

Eric Bosworth

And not to totally nerd out, but they can be used for demand response as well โ€” for lack of a better term. You can precondition the loop prior to a peak and ease it even further.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yep.

David Roberts

Yeah.

Eric Bosworth

Lots of rabbit holes to go down.

David Roberts

Just processing that. So, you can, like, if the grid says, "We're going to be especially congested at 4pm," you just dump a little additional heat into the network prior to then. So then, your heat pumps are just doing a little bit less work at that hour?

Zeyneb Magavi

And then, you can use the thermal inertia of the system to coast. At Colorado Mesa, there used to be a benefit to load shedding, and they had a demand shed button right on their control system where they would just hit it, coast for a few hours, and then come back online. No customer ever experienced a difference.

David Roberts

Right. So, you don't need steady, always-on heat application here. You can cut the heat on and off based on grid needs.

Eric Bosworth

You can speed your pumps up and slow them down. So, we'll actually on our loop have the ability to speed our pumps up, precondition the loop, and then slow them way down to go through a peak and respond to that load, for lack of a better term.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting. So, it's lower electricity requirements and it's more controllable electricity.

Zeyneb Magavi

And also, as soon as you get to a certain scale with a thermal network, as you've grown to a utility scale, it becomes cost-effective to do larger scale thermal storage systems, not unlike the gas utilities currently have a whole network of seasonal gas storage. More intermittent thermal storage can begin to address our load peak in the winter in a kind of resilient way, in a cost-effective way.

David Roberts

So, spell that out a little bit. So, that would mean like a network like this would be connected to, I don't know, a big lake and it would just store a bunch of heat in the lake that it could use in the winter.

Zeyneb Magavi

That's one way. You know, in Europe, there's quite a few; they're calling them ATES and BTES, aquifer thermal energy storage, borehole thermal energy storage. There are phase change thermal energy storage tanks like a molten salt battery, for example. There's a whole bunch of possible technologies that can potentially store thermal energy for different ranges of time. Possibly, we have some unused wind energy on the grid at night. We dump it into a large thermal storage system and then we use it seasonally to cover our peaks on the thermal grid.

David Roberts

And it's cheap too, to store heat relative to storing electricity. You can use it with such fancy materials as water or bricks. So, to summarize here, since we've gone over, this is cheaper for customers. I'm guessing, you know, if you believe in heat pumps, it's more comfortable for customers than the sort of on or off blast of a natural gas or oil furnace. It's net cheaper for the utility, it's good for the grid, it's good for avoiding winter peaks. It seems like a win-win. So, just to wrap up, what do you see as the big impediment?

Zeyneb Magavi

I want to be a little picky on one of those so it can be cheaper for customers. So, that monthly energy bill is expected to be cheaper. And it is in a regulated utility, of course, that is determined by the rate making and how, what duration of time we spread out the upfront cost of the infrastructure and how we approach that. So, there are a lot of projections, but it does depend on the regulator's decision making and I just want to qualify that.

David Roberts

Right. So, this is a classic clean energy case of high CapEx upfront.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yes.

David Roberts

Savings over time.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yes.

David Roberts

And so, you're in the same discussion you are with so many other contexts, which is, who provides that upfront money, how expensive is the credit, how patient is the capital? So, I guess this is kind of another reason to do it with a utility is that they have some patient capital.

Eric Bosworth

And maybe to be a little bit optimistic here, but I'm hopeful that we'll see something similar as we have with other clean energy technologies where unit costs come down as it matures. Right. As we scale, as we do more of this, as the workforce develops, if we can continue to drive unit costs down and expand the size of these networks, you know, you get to that unicorn zone where you can pay back the infrastructure and not increase the energy burden on your customers and they're getting clean, carbon-free heating and cooling. That's the perfect world that you know, you want to get to.

David Roberts

I'm guessing a lot of these customers are going to get cooling for the first time. Is that true?

Eric Bosworth

We didn't get a chance to get into that, but that was a huge selling point as well. You know, we go to the customer's home and say, "It's going to be geothermal heating, it's going to be super efficient. Oh, and it provides cooling. So you'll have central air essentially." And they say, "Sign me up!"

Zeyneb Magavi

That's a critical health aspect. And when we talk about what humans actually want and not what energy nerds want, the cooling, the affordability, the quality of heating and cooling, the reliability of the cost of the bill, these are things that matter to everyone.

David Roberts

You know, this is like a win-win. It's got a lot of things going for it. What is your big concern? What keeps you up at night? What do you think is the biggest challenge in spreading this?

Eric Bosworth

For me, it's driving initial costs down, it's figuring out how to do this equitably and responsibly for our customers, and really develop a business line that they're happy to sign up for. I mean, if I can get my costs down and I can get those geothermal rates established with our regulators that make sense, I'll be happy. But for now, I think that that's the big challenge.

Zeyneb Magavi

I think my number one would be knowledge. It's new, and there's a lot of terminology confusion. There's a lot of confusion, even at the engineering level, that can result in unexpected outcomes. And I worry; it keeps me up at night. Most modelers aren't yet taking into account thermal inertia, right? And so, we're in that risk zone, the Wild West, where there's so much excitement, there's so many projects moving forward, and we don't yet have guidelines, books, articles showing an optimized best path.

David Roberts

Right. It does sound, though, like HEET is really going overboard to just study the living crap out of this thing.

Zeyneb Magavi

We are trying so hard, and we're enjoying it, I'll admit. But yes, we have a working model, a techno-economic model, a reduced order model. We're using the data from the first projects to make that model as real as possible. And we're making it open source for everyone. We've launched a data bank; we've launched a cost survey. We're trying as hard as we can to go as fast as we can on that.

David Roberts

So, that materials โ€” so, to make it more that another utility, the next utility, can just take something off the shelf and follow a plan that's coming. You're working on that?

Zeyneb Magavi

We're all working on it. There's just so many people trying to make this operational in a reliable way.

Eric Bosworth

And for my part, the beauty of a utility is, I can go and share with all of the other utilities and really try to take the lessons we've learned from our first one and pass them along. I mean, utilities are not competing with each other over customers here.

David Roberts

That's true.

Eric Bosworth

Anything I can do to share knowledge, lessons learned, here are issues we had, avoid this, try and do this this way. I'm taking those calls because frankly, I want everybody to be successful.

Zeyneb Magavi

Yeah.

David Roberts

Awesome. Well, thanks, you guys. This is so cool. This fits right in with my thermal obsession, my grid balancing obsessions, all my obsessions. And so much stuff is happening. So maybe we'll talk again in a couple of years. We'll have some non-pilots, maybe some actual take the word pilot off and just have it be a normal thing somewhere. I bet we'll see that in two years.

Zeyneb Magavi

Sounds good.

David Roberts

All right, thank you guys. Thanks for coming on.

Zeyneb Magavi

Absolutely.

Eric Bosworth

Thank you.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Happy holidays!

Merry holiday(s) of your choosing, Volts fam!

Just a note to let you know that weโ€™re taking the week off โ€” no content, which means no mailbag episode for December. I kinda forgot that Iโ€™m going to be in DC with family all week and wonโ€™t have time to record anything. But please, keep leaving your questions. Expect a super-mailbag in January, with my co-host Lisa back in the booth.

Volts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

I've been thinking about what to offer by way of year-end reflections, but honestly, I donโ€™t have much. I feel pretty profoundly out of sync with the country right now โ€” the zeitgeist, the vibes, what have you. Everything seems too ugly and stupid to bear. It is a dark time for America and it seems likely to get much darker before itโ€™s over.

That is why Iโ€™m so grateful I get to do the work I do at Volts. Though the sky is dark, each guest โ€” each story of cleverness or courage or public spirit โ€” is a lantern, a light against the gloom. And if I canโ€™t quite see the landscape clearly any more, if I canโ€™t make out a happy ending through the tenebrous murk, at least each lantern provides enough illumination to make it to the next.

I hope you will stick with me on this journey in coming years, one foot in front of the other, from lantern to lantern, toward a brighter world.

And I hope you all find some measure of peace this holiday season. Love from the whole Volts family.

A rainbow.
I took this at a park near my house the other day. Seems promising.

PS. Weโ€™ll kick off the new year with a new pod on Jan. 1. Itโ€™s on thermal energy networks. An absolute banger.

PPS. I sent my annual fundraiser last month, so I wonโ€™t hit you up again, or remind you that paid subscribers are my sole source of income, so forth and etc.

I will, however, tip you off that a Volts subscription is a great last-minute gift! ๐Ÿ˜‰

Volts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The promise of residential VPPs

In this episode, I speak with Ben Brown, CEO of Renew Home, about the company's groundbreaking 1-gigawatt virtual power plant deal with NRG Energy in Texas. It will be the nationโ€™s largest VPP, leveraging existing smart thermostats to control millions of residential HVAC systems. We discuss customer experience, data privacy, and the ability of VPPs to rapidly scale to meet rising electricity demand.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Hello everyone, this is Volts for December 20th, 2024, "The promise of residential VPPs." I'm your host, David Roberts. These days everyone is talking about virtual power plants, the somewhat regrettable name for a new class of entity starting to pop up on power grids. A VPP is composed of multiple distributed energy resources (DERs) โ€” think rooftop solar panels, home batteries, EV chargers, and smart appliances โ€” scattered across hundreds or thousands of households, coordinated through networking and software.

By acting in concert, these resources create a kind of super power plant, one that can generate, store, or shift power, precisely and in real time. No other power plant can do all that.

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VPPs can help grids avoid expensive peaks (and thus avoid building new gas peaker plants), but that's just the beginning. As Distributed Energy Resources grow in number and variety, the value and capacities of VPPs will increase, as described in the Department of Energy's recent Pathways to Commercial Liftoff report.

Ben Brown
Ben Brown

A company called Renew Home just made a big splash in this nascent market, announcing a deal with utility NRG Energy to develop a 1-gigawatt VPP in Texas, initially based on smart thermostats. The company grew out of Nest Renew, a Google company coordinating Nest thermostats, and OhmConnect, a VPP startup.

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Ben Brown, the CEO of Renew Home, has been in the home energy management space his entire career, including 10 years at Google leading efforts like Google Home. I thought he'd be a great person to ask a bunch of questions I have about this space, which is exploding lately. We're going to talk about the customer experience, the security of customer data, other devices that might be networked in the future, and the upper limits of VPPs.

With no further ado, Ben Brown, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Ben Brown

Thank you so much, David, for having me.

David Roberts

Tons of questions about this. VPPs are the hot thing right now, everybody's talking about them, and they're starting to move from kind of stars in people's eyes to real things on the grid now. So, we're getting to where we can answer some questions. But let's just start with a bare description of what you're doing here in Texas. What exactly is this deal? Why is NRG involved? What are you aggregating? Just so to me, describe what's going on here.

Ben Brown

The biggest thing is, we look at Texas, we look at the opportunity to work with hundreds of thousands of households across the state to help them shift energy usage into times where the grid is less stressed. We deal with a lot of these peak issues for tens or hundreds of hours during the year. With NRG, we worked with them to say, "Hey," they were thinking about investments in new capacity resources to deal with the growing demand that they're seeing from a lot of different vectors, and we worked with them to say, "Hey, we can build a VPP at a tenth of the cost that it would build to a natural gas power plant." And so we do that working with the target is over six hundred thousand homes across the state with predominantly smart thermostats, the Nest learning thermostat, Vivint thermostat to start, but we'll bring in EV chargers, battery storage as well over time.

David Roberts

So is the right way to think about this, NRG is the utility and you are a genco and they're signing a PPA with you? Is it more or less just like any other deal between a utility and a power provider?

Ben Brown

Yeah, I think it's a little more involved. I think it's a good way to think about it for maybe the value that we're putting together. But when we think about VPPs, it's really important to focus in on what the end customer experience is for being able to provide this type of service in the home. So, you're trying to empower customers to be able to save money on their energy bills. So, being able to have a really great end-to-end experience that is integrated between the Nest experience and the NRG experience and or the Vivint experience is really critical in this. So, it's not just purely, "Hey, you know, there's a gigawatt of capacity we're building," and then we're just going forward and talking about a fifteen-year PPA or something like that.

David Roberts

Right, well, that's your face to the utility, and then you have a different face to the customer.

Ben Brown

No, that's a good way of talking about that. Yeah.

David Roberts

You're starting with thermostats. There's a fine line, if there's any line โ€” maybe you can tell us if you think there's a line โ€” between what is now currently called demand response and virtual power plants. Now, in my mind, the distinction is demand response is just you can move usage, power consumption from one time to another, which is very useful. But when I think of a virtual power plant, I think of something that can do that and then also store energy and then also generate energy at times of need. And it looks like to me where you're starting with thermostats is just demand response, isn't it? How is this not just demand response? Or do you think there's a meaningful distinction?

Ben Brown

I think there's definitely a distinction. Right, so I would say when we look at the history of being able to engage residential customers in being able to shift their energy usage to support the grid over the last thirty years, that really has been around using the home's thermal properties around how you cool or heat it to be able to shift when you do that. Essentially, the home is a large thermal battery, so it's really no different than an electric battery, a chemistry battery that can discharge.

David Roberts

Same with water heaters, water heaters are always touted for this.

Ben Brown

Exactly right. So, when I think about what thermostats or HVAC systems have been doing over the last ten years, and if I back up for a second, we, as Renew Home, working with the Nest Rush Hour Rewards of running that program as the Nest Energy team for the last decade, as well as what we've done with OhmConnect in markets, we've been able to both showcase the value of demand response at scale but also being able to, when we launch Nest Renew, show that we can do billions of energy shifts a year across five plus million customers across the United States. That does represent a really resilient, dispatchable, reliable VPP nationally, but also in highly targeted ways. So honestly, I think that it's really important we think about VPPs. The only way we're going to get to our goal of trying to have 160 gigawatts from VPPs across the country over the next five to ten years is really by employing the biggest latent resource out there first, which is the 70 gigawatts of potential that exists across all the heating and cooling systems in the country across those eighty million homes.

David Roberts

I mean, I guess that's my question. It's like, as long as that's what you're doing, moving heating and cooling around in time, it just looks to me like very sophisticated, very scaled-up demand response.

Ben Brown

I do think that because of what you can do with load shaping, you can make it look very similar to what โ€” because we also manage a diversity of assets, not just smart thermostats but batteries as well. And when we look at what we're able and capable to do over an hour, three-hour, five-hour periods on the population basis, because we're talking about massive scale here. The best benefit we have going for ourselves is that when we're engaging in Texas, we're talking about doing it across hundreds of thousands of homes. What we're doing in California is across hundreds of thousands of homes. And so when you look at that in aggregate, it actually creates the same type of load shapes as you would with any other generation asset or kind of a physical storage assets.

David Roberts

Yeah, well, when you throw batteries in there, then you can start discharging energy right when you need some, and then you can start storing it. I think it's when you throw batteries in that you get something that looks, I guess, a little bit more like a VPP to me, although I guess these definitions are fuzzy.

Ben Brown

I think it's important on this one because most batteries aren't giving, you know, they're not discharging back to the grid, right? Most batteries are about the behind-the-meter, giving back to the home and shifting, right? You know, mostly it's usually solar or taking grid energy and then discharging it at different times, same thing from an EV charger. So when we really think about this and we're talking about the scale we're getting at, I think it's very important not to overlook that we've already showcased that thermostats are the backbone.

Smart thermostats and HVAC systems are going to be the backbone of the scale of VPPs moving forward and absolutely there's a diversity of assets that should go into that, that we support. But I would really advocate that we believe that actually building the largest residential VPP in the country, which Renew Home has done, we believe that a lot of that's going to have to come from smart thermostats and HVAC systems in addition to, as the adoption curve ramps up, with EVs and behind-the-meter storage that will be a key component of as well.

David Roberts

HVAC is where the energy is, right? I mean, it's like, "You go where the money is" โ€” I forget what the old clichรฉ is โ€” but that's where most of the residential energy is. It's a sensible place to start.

Ben Brown

50% of energy usage in the home is related to HVAC, and there's going to be an adoption curve for sure around broader home electrification, which we're super excited about. And I think that smart thermostat users like Nest users historically have been five times more likely to be adopting other home electrification devices.

David Roberts

Yeah, that makes sense.

Ben Brown

You know, it kind of makes sense. It's usually the first device that people adopt.

David Roberts

This does seem, I mean, I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but this does seem like a smart way to address the big problem around VPPs now, which is that so much of it is theoretical. So much of it is, we're on the verge of a ton of stuff, but like, what's the foothold? What's the first step, you know, like how do you get established? And these thermostats, these smart thermostats, are already there. I mean, they're already installed.

Ben Brown

You know, I think if you look at why we created Renew Home to begin with, it was that we already have five million households across the country that represent over three gigawatts of VPP capacity, flexible capacity, that we work with over one hundred plus utility programs across the country.

David Roberts

With Nest?

Ben Brown

Yeah, with Nest plus other devices as well, it's not just Nest.

David Roberts

This is a side question, but is all that just the market, like is all that just Nest selling as a private product for people's private usage, like is that the result of some previous utility program or is that just a bunch of people have bought these things?

Ben Brown

I mean, it's the best part about a little bit of everything. Which is obviously, the Nest thermostat was, I believe โ€” obviously worked on a lot of these products for a long time, I come from a consumer product background as you mentioned โ€” I think it was one of the kind of those magical devices that was very desirable so you had so many people that would just buy it because it helped them save money.

Being able to have a device that can help you automatically save energy and use energy more thoughtfully is something that just people went out and bought on their own. But also, yes, we worked really tirelessly over the last decade to work on state and utility-based rebate programs for both energy efficiency with Energy Star as well as with demand response pre-enrolled type programs wherein there were really good subsidies given by utilities to be able to help get thermostats into homes as well.

David Roberts

Yeah, but just to sort of emphasize the point here, that the kind of advantage you guys are working with is that you do not have to persuade customers to install anything or to buy anything. The products you're working with are already in homes, at least to begin with.

Ben Brown

Yeah, right, we get to take advantage of there's a very large existing population of Nest, Honeywell, Ecobee, and Residio thermostat owners across the country, but there's also millions of new households that buy them each year. And we have a great experience that we built so that when you're setting up the device, we make it really simple to empower you to connect that to a program so that you can enhance your energy savings when you do so.

David Roberts

Okay, so let's talk about the consumer experience then, because I kind of wanted to start there. I mean, from what I totally get, and I think most listeners of Volts will get, the appeal to a utility of having a gigawatt of movable, shiftable, controllable demand like that's an obvious asset in balancing your grid, especially in Texas where you've got, you know, very well understood problems at this point with the grid.

But the consumer; so I'm a consumer, a couple of years ago I bought a Nest thermostat, it's now controlling my whatever my HVAC. You come knock on my door, what is the customer acquisition process? Because that's the pain point I hear from everybody in this space, right, is customer acquisition is the difficult bit. So what's the process?

Ben Brown

So, just to speak a little bit about the background, my background, and then some of where a lot of us have come from building great consumer products. I think you do try to figure out the best, most frictionless way to be able to, when a household is going through setting up something like a smart speaker or a camera or a smart thermostat, you really create a very seamless experience in that process wherein you are enabling them to do all the things that give that device its superpower. And so when we think about like the job or the superpower that a smart thermostat really was intended to do from the early days, there was a lot around you know, "Just make sure it's not heating and cooling my house when I'm not home."

So, there's a lot of really brilliant things around using, you know, IR sensors and new modern sensors to be able to better understand the patterns and rhythms of the home to just help me use less energy. Then, obviously, as the grid has gotten more complex and more constrained, especially in not just ten hours of the year but hundreds of hours of the year in which we're seeing real-time prices really spike and move around all the time, and that will only get kind of more exacerbated over the coming decade, we realize that the other big superpower of a smart thermostat, as an example, was its ability to be predictive about those elements and your patterns in the home so that it could use AI to really create a very smart schedule for when you're heating and cooling your house that minimizes your costs while also supporting the grid.

David Roberts

You mean predict elements like grid congestion and weather events, things like that?

Ben Brown

Exactly. Like, so you know what the weather is going to look like for the remainder of the day when you're most likely to be coming home? How do real-time prices on the grid look? Where are there going to be issues on the grid? So, being able to do all those things is really impossible for a consumer to be able to do themselves, right? Like, that's a lot of the power of AI. It would be like, "Help me do things that represent my preferences but things that I can't sit with, like an energy clock every single day, and then try to optimize and predict when I should be cooling my house for ten minutes to get it to seventy degrees."

David Roberts

Well, I feel like one thing that everyone in your space learns quickly is just how little consumers will do, just how little you can expect them to do. I find that no matter how low your expectation is, you end up having to kind of lower it. So, you really do have to make these things almost entirely weightless, you know, almost entirely automatic.

Ben Brown

As you mentioned, I think the best products you ever build and the simplest experiences you ever build mean that you've spent millions of hours trying to rough out all the rough edges and smooth them out because you got to make it super accessible and do something that, again, someone couldn't do themselves. I think that's where a lot of the value you're creating for them comes from.

David Roberts

Okay, but you're describing the process of setting up your new Nest, and I see how, like if you buy a Nest, that's an easy customer get because it's just one more thing they have to click when they're setting it up. They say, "Yes, I'll participate in this program." But you're starting with a bunch of existing Nest customers, are you not? Is the utility helping you reach those people? Did you spam email them? How do you contact all these people?

Ben Brown

Well, the benefit is we've been doing this for the last ten years. Like, Rush Hour Rewards is a program that started with three utilities and has now ramped up to over one hundred plus across the country. And then also, we launched Nest Renew five years ago and what Nest Renew was doing was working with you to help you shift your energy usage on a daily basis to help minimize cost and to be able to shift to when the grid mix is cleaner. So, doing those things and having that already built in means that we've really built up a very large user base that is already enrolled in programs.

But, we also have a really good ongoing experience with customers around how to engage them with enhanced energy savings. And so, that's something that we've also built out those experiences really well through the Google Home and Nest apps over the years. And now, we're bringing that philosophy and those learnings around because I think people have talked about this in the industry around smart thermostats specifically, but even other types of devices that people bring in which is really low enrollment or adoption rates.

I think that utilities will communicate, "Oh, we've been able to get three percent or five percent of people enrolled." When we have seen this historically, we've hit numbers where we've been able to get seventy or eighty percent of households engaged in energy shifting. And then we've been able to get orders of magnitude larger than the three percent or five percent people are talking about in terms of being able to get people enrolled into VPP or a utility.

David Roberts

Is that a communication strategy? Like, what's the secret? How are you getting these people to do something when other people haven't been able to?

Ben Brown

I think the best proxy for it is, you know, I think we learned a lot from coming from being the company that was working on a bunch of these other devices as well. Which is, when you were setting up your smart speaker as an example, you know, we made it really simple and natural for you to be like, "Hey, yeah, if this smart speaker is going to be a great product for me, I need to be able to link it to my Spotify account or my Apple Music account or my YouTube Music account."

And so, we made it a really good default part of the experience where you really kind of like, we did a lot of learning from that. And then I think it's the same thing here which is, "Hey, if you really bought this smart thermostat to help you manage your energy cost, that's why a lot of people are buying these devices, being more thoughtful, more control over comfort." So of course, it makes sense when you set this up to link your utility account. Like, how would we know how to kind of shift your usage and minimize your costs if we don't know your time-of-use tariff?

And so, I think that type of kind of more of a normative approach to helping people do the thing that makes the device able to do its job more effectively is really, I think, an approach that has helped us really change the game in terms of enrollment numbers.

David Roberts

So, from the customer's point of view, they're setting up their smart thermostat, they click "yes" to this one question that comes up like, "Would you like to have us help you save more money?" And then, from the consumer point of view, that's it, right? Like, they click that button, things happen behind the scenes, they save a little money. Like, does the specific savings from participation in the VPP show up in some separate ways such that it's sort of flagged for users?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so we were talking about the consumer experience, and how do we kind of simplify that as much as possible? And so in the background, part of what we'll do is we're also saying, "Oh, you know, that next step after you click 'yes, I want to be able to opt into energy optimizations for minimizing costs and maximizing cleanliness of the energy mix I use,' the next step is really like, 'Oh, we've also seen that you're, you know, there's a program available for you in your local Duke utility or your local PG&E program.'" And so, you know, then we're able to do that and in doing so, users will get an additional benefit that comes not just from reducing usage but also a benefit that's coming through and a rebate that comes back through their bill.

David Roberts

And it will say, "This is what you get for participating in this program"? I'm just wondering how invisible is this? I sort of go back and forth. I mean, part of me thinks that like there's no real reason that customers even need to know much about this is happening at all. Just like, "Check the box and don't worry about it."

Ben Brown

I think it's about how proactive we are in terms of really spamming them with a ton of information versus being available when you are interested in jumping in. So, this idea of when there's a moment in time โ€” we call it this line of visibility โ€” so when there's a moment in time to communicate to you about some benefit that you've just accrued. So, you've come to the end of a summer program, we've been able to save you $50, we'll communicate that to you.

And also, you always have the ability to jump in and be like, "Oh, I want to see what happened here," and then being able to look at it there. Because there's such a diversity of ways these programs are being scaled nationally, there are a couple of different models that we have to manage behind the scenes. But we want to try to make that as simple, abstracted, and engaging to customers as possible.

David Roberts

Let's talk then about data. I just recorded a pod with Cory Doctorow just a couple of days ago, who you may know as a tech guy, tech writer, coined the term "enshittification", specifically about platforms. And you know, the idea is like you get users on your platform by offering them all sorts of goodies, a really great deal, and then you get them on your platform and then they get locked into your platform.

And once they're locked in and it's hard to leave, then you start exploiting them and selling their data, etcetera, etcetera. And I'm sure if you've read any Cory, you know the process. Obviously, as he and I discussed, that's one thing when you're talking about your smartphone or whatever, but it's a whole different thing when you start talking about your house, right?

When you start talking about how you're going to find out you don't actually have control of your own house, and I've been thinking about this sort of platform enshittification, the danger here. There's also such an information asymmetry between you and the customer in this situation. They don't know anything about what the grid's doing, they barely know what their own appliances are doing. So, it just seems like a situation that is ripe for exploitation and I'm just wondering how much is that on your mind and what kind of things are you, do you want to put in place to avoid that.

Ben Brown

Yeah, I mean, it is definitely something. It's obviously coming from a place like Google, which is very, very conscious around, you know, data access for customers, being really transparent about how data is being used and really being strong around opt-ins and how data is exchanged. I really believe strongly in that kind of transparency while also being able to enable customers to sign on to be able to do things on their behalf based on their preferences that really help them achieve their goals.

And so, I definitely think the data component of this is important, but also, in order to help them achieve their goals, we have to make sure that they can see everything and see what's going on. And to your point in the last question, being able to double-click into stuff to understand how things are working and what happened in the last energy shift. But being able to also make sure that customers are always in control of all of these components.

They're always in control of what data is being shared. They're always in control of being able to maintain comfort in the home. It can control the thermostat in any way possible. And so, I think that part to me is super important around customer empowerment end to end, and I think that's a very strong thing to mention here.

David Roberts

Yeah, you know, we say people opt into these things and agree to these things, but you know, everybody's familiar with the last screen of the setup which is a big wall of text, "Here's our terms and conditions, scroll to the bottom and click yes." We all know that no one reads those things. So, I don't know that โ€” I don't know that having the customer opt-in is all that much protection. I mean, you're going to have a lot of data here, you're going to have a lot of very intimate data about people and how they behave. Do you not think that there's going to be a temptation to misuse that data or sell that data? It seems the temptation lurks here.

Ben Brown

Yeah, I mean, I think that's why we take ourselves, you know, as serious stewards of information, which is, you know, we're definitely working with companies like Google and others that also take that really seriously and really care about customer empowerment with that data and being able to also make sure that folks are able to opt-in or out at any time to your point.

But, I think that in this world of trying to empower devices and households that own and control these things to be able to take part and save money in these aggregated ways, it's really important that we're able to find solutions for that. And I think that's why we were really strong around supporting and developing the Matter protocol, which was a really good unifying way of making it straightforward for smart home devices to connect to any platform so there was less of this kind of "lock-in" mentality. I think that's a good example of that.

David Roberts

Let's talk about that for a second because the other big โ€” Cory's other big thing he gets into a lot is just lock-in. So one of the things that I would be, as a newly sort of Cory-pilled, this is just all on my mind now, but like if I'm signing up for a platform now, one of the things I want to know is, "Am I going to be able to leave this platform and move to a different platform and take all my data with me at any time?" Do you know what I mean? Like, is it going to be easy to get out of this if I want to opt into some different VPP?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so I mean, I definitely think with Matter being an example of places where Nest smart thermostat owners can work with different smart home platforms, that is definitely a way to do so. So, it makes it more fluid. And then, I think, you know, one of the things that is important to balance because I think you mentioned it before and it was a good example, you know, when you're talking about batteries, batteries are a great example, heat pumps are another good example.

When you talk about these really big, significant investments and places where, you know, someone is going to subsidize potentially to be able to enroll a battery in a VPP for ten or fifteen years, there are some benefits around the ability to have some vertical relationships. Otherwise, it's very hard for a company like ours or a company like Sunrun or others to be able to fully subsidize, or a utility to subsidize, these upfront if there's not some ability to say, "Hey, we have a way in which to kind of help ensure that folks are able to participate in the program over time."

David Roberts

Yeah, speaking of being able to get in and out and interoperability, one of the things that I've been worried about with the home electrification space just seems like a very typical tech case in that it's like a new market, people are herding in before we've done the work of establishing interoperable standards here. So, like the danger seems to me, you're going to get a bunch of different appliances that are geared to different communication protocols and different VPPs won't be able to talk to each other. Consumers are going to end up confused, like they're going to have their EV in one VPP and their heat pump in another, etc. So, what's your take on the state of the industry in terms of planning for these things all to work with one another?

Ben Brown

Having worked on supporting the Matter protocol buildup for a while, in terms of it coming together, I would say one of the things we're still at the beginning of is actually hitting scale. There are such different ways in which programs, even the ways we think about VPPs being supported on the state or the regional level, are so diverse and different. Being able to even have a set way of how people believe that if they are supporting households in terms of investing in home electrification and enrolling these devices into VPPs, there's some kind of clear way that households are going to get compensated for that.

I think that's a really important thing here too because, as we are scaling up, it's important to have ways in which we standardize communication. There's a lot of standardizations for IP communication and underlying device communication, and I think a lot of those actually are taken advantage of with things like Matter. I think when it comes to the grid level, I still am concerned that there's for sure not nearly enough being done on the state and regional level from a policy and regulator perspective to really help make sure that VPPs are, you know, there's a clear path for households to be compensated for their ability to participate in these programs.

David Roberts

Right, are there currently any rules about, you know, like I don't know, minimum compensation or transparency? Like, is anybody regulating this stuff yet?

Ben Brown

Definitely, on the state level, where in which there's open markets. I think that you know, obviously, we participated directly in building VPPs in the California market. OhmConnect has, over the last ten years, and we've been kind of ramping that up pretty significantly. Obviously, in Texas, where in which we've just talked about the energy partnership, and then in New York. And then there are more of these, I think, on the state level VPP bills being passed in Maryland and Colorado that really help from the state level encourage utilities to really value and encourage the kind of the ramp and adoption of VPPs on the residential level. And there are pushes in other states like Virginia, Illinois, and Michigan.

David Roberts

Are they sort of aligned? Like, you know, are these bills kind of learning from one another and do they have similar content? Or, you could also see the regulatory environment becoming very fragmented and difficult to navigate.

Ben Brown

You know, back to the thing you were talking about from the beginning. We are definitely in a crisis when it comes to both trying to decarbonize our grid and trying to deal with the hundreds of gigawatts of peak capacity that needs to be added over the next ten years. Actually, a lot of that needs to be added more quickly if we really want to support a lot of the generative AI and data center growth and a bunch of the other pieces that are really kind of flexing over the next three to five years.

And so, when you think about that, I think there's a lot of interest both from our energy partners on the utility level as well as on the regulator level around how to learn from each other and push some of these things forward because I do think there's a lot of commonalities. I do think there's a lot of leaders in the space, both from the regulatory side but also from the utility side, that really are trying to push some of this stuff forward.

And the main reason being that it's different from the past is that we're not in a phase now where it's about kind of switching from different resources to others. We're actually in a phase now where almost unanimously across the country, everyone is trying to figure out how to get access to more capacity.

David Roberts

Yeah, I feel like people talk around this a little bit, but the real truth of it is the quantity of power that these people need and the timescale upon which they need it rules out everything except VPPs. There's no kind of power plant that you can build fast enough to satisfy the kind of demand people are talking about on the scale and speed they're talking about. Only, you've got to somehow find a way to exploit existing resources. You just don't have time to build new resources.

Ben Brown

I absolutely couldn't agree more, and it's definitely the thing that we have been trying to kind of yell from the mountaintops over the last year and a half, two years specifically.

David Roberts

I think people are getting that. I mean, I think the DOE report kind of prompted that, and it's just like a bunch of entities with giant sacks of money wandering around being like, "Can you give me power? Can you give me power?" That will definitely spur a lot of thinking.

Ben Brown

I mean, I was just at a conference earlier this week where we were talking about data center growth, and I worked really closely with the data center team at Google, coordinated with a lot of the early teams on PPAs for renewable energy and a lot of the 24/7 goals that folks like Google have. And I would say, I'm actually, the amount of growth that they're trying to go after, and I, coming from a consumer product background, really believe in these use cases.

I do believe โ€” we talk about the electrification of everything. Generative AI is like the electrification of creativity, the electrification of productivity. It is a real, real thing, and I think that the consumer benefits of it, the user benefits of it, and the workflow benefits of it are going to be so massive that it is going to be this next big jump in the computing epoch, like the smartphone revolution, like the internet revolution.

Really, I do believe it's going to be significant, which is also why I even think the estimates we think are happening and the desire for folks to build new data centers to support some of these new use cases, that's going to be even bigger than I think we can even imagine.

David Roberts

Well, even if it's bigger than projections, if you look out into the mid and long term, that's still going to be dwarfed by the electrification of transport, the electrification of industry, and the electrification of materials. And you know, who else knows what we're going to electrify, but we're electrifying the entire economy. So, like, there is no such thing as enough power, I think, for our, you knowโ€”

Ben Brown

Couldn't agree more.

David Roberts

for a while. So, if you have resources that are underutilized, wherever they are, you got to start finding them and utilizing them. That's to me what VPPs are.

Ben Brown

Think about the environment that, you know, we have spent the last 20 years, for me, and you know, I know for a lot of people much longer, trying to operate in, which is working with energy partners, utilities, and regulators in a world where, honestly, demand has been mostly flat.

David Roberts

Yeah, which means you put anything on, you take something else off, right? Whole different kind of calculation.

Ben Brown

100%, that's a totally different conversation. And I think in this environment, I will say, we're seeing so much collaboration because we all see the problem.

David Roberts

Everybody's desperate.

Ben Brown

Totally. And I think that, I mean, but I think in moments of the impending crisis, I think that's where in which you're seeing a ton of activity. And obviously, we all believe that climate change is the crisis that should have been pushing us even faster earlier, but this one actually now is both the combination of that and actually real, massive growth โ€”

David Roberts

And the giant sacks of money. That helps move things along. One final thing on the interoperability bit, which is just right now, you're starting with mostly thermometers, mostly Nest thermometers, and then this other brand of thermometers, Vivint. What, practically speaking, is involved in adding other appliances or whatever?

Like, if I'm in a home, you're controlling or partially controlling my Nest thermostat, and I have, I don't know, a water heater. Like, do you need me to put something on my water heater? How is it that your system is going to start talking to my water heater? How does that work?

Ben Brown

First off, for smart thermostats, yes, obviously the history that we have with Nest. We work really closely with Nest thermostats, but we also work with Honeywell and Ecobee. Then for the Texas relationship, we've talked about our investment with Vivint thermostats as well. But what I would also call out is that the benefit of a smart thermostat, you know, the keyword being "smart" there, is that in and of itself, that is the internet connectivity.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's already hooked up to the internet, it's already smart. My water heater is dumb and not talking to the internet. So, how do you overcome that?

Ben Brown

So, as an example, we partnered with Rheem to also be able to think about the future of hot water heater electrification or hot water electrification and ensuring that we can partner to incentivize and ensure that most of those electricity electrified hot water heaters that are going to homes will include a comms module. I think that's going to be a really important thing going forward when we think about the opportunities in front of us and, you know, we're still in the early days of that.

David Roberts

That's going to be all appliances eventually, right? Don't you think eventually, like being smart and connected to the internet is going to be sort of a default thing for appliances?

Ben Brown

I think so, to a degree, but obviously, we care really deeply about the ones that are using the most energy because those are the most meaningful to households for financial savings and then the grid for reliability. So, you know, definitely when it comes to the majors like heating and cooling for HVAC systems, smart thermostats or direct comms on the heat pump, hot water heating, EV charging, and batteries clearly are going to be really significant. And then of course, smart appliances like refrigerators and washing machines and things like that probably also come along.

David Roberts

But if my water heater, my existing water heater, is dumb, do you just write it off or is there some way you can bring that into your VPP?

Ben Brown

So, I think that there are definitely different opportunities with retrofit modules and things that can come along. That's not yet a focus of ours.

David Roberts

Right, I'm just talking about the future when you start thinking about adding other devices. I'm just curious about the sort of mechanics of it. How do you bring those in? Because the Nest, as you say, the smart thermostats are kind of a gimme because they're already smart, they're already online. But once you start going to other devices, it seems like a little bit more of a challenge.

Ben Brown

For hot water heating, I mean a huge part of it is going to be that most of the fleet will be shifting over the next five to ten years, both because of regulation but also because of financials, to going from gas-based or oil-based to electric-based. And so, I think in that changeover curve, you really care about ensuring that, to your point, those devices are connected. I think that's a really important one and that's obviously a big part of what we've been talking with partners like Rheem about, and that they are pushing themselves really and advocating for.

And then, obviously, for other device types like storage and EV charging, more and more and more, they're clearly an incentive for those things to be connected and built default that way. But there are challenges with that because I will call out that most of those devices exist in places that actually don't get great Wi-Fi connectivity. So, there are other things that we focus on there too.

David Roberts

You mean like literally in the home, like the basement of the home? You mean like literally like Wi-Fi doesn't reach down to your basement?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so I think that's why things like the Matter protocol and other things are helpful to make sure that there's different comms components of how to maximize connectivity to some of those devices. But I think that it is very important that default-wise, going forward, that you know, Wi-Fi at a basic level, if not other communication standards, really helps solve that problem.

David Roberts

Well, when I think about the big energy users, as you say, in your documentation, HVAC is the big one. So right, if you're going to go after the big one, and it is helpfully smartened and connected to the internet in many hundreds of thousands of households, so this is a helpful place to start. But what's next after HVAC?

I just think intuitively, it seems like the next biggest prize is the EV, the next biggest consumer. Is that right, or would that be the next on your stack to go after?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so I think you can look at it in a couple of different ways, right? So one is what we talked about before which is what are in people's homes today, you know, that hits massive scale. And that is definitely the heating and cooling of air and the heating of water. And so you know, you have eighty plus million homes with HVAC systems. And so I think that's why it's such a great focus on the electrification of heating, cooling, and the ability for that to be enrolled in grid flexibility programs and VPPs. And then the hot water for sure, also again an existing thing that has โ€” it's not an additional ask of a household to put in a new expense.

To your question around EVs: I do believe that EVs clearly are going to provide a massive benefit to customers from an energy savings perspective overall and really making sure that charging and managed charging is done well in a way that doesn't challenge the grid as it really scales up, especially on a localized level. But it's an interesting thing to think through around the shiftability and how EVs are enrolled in VPPs. I think we see a lot of excitement around that and we are excited about that, both because there's going to be an accelerated adoption curve for that over the next decade but also around really looking at specifically for programs when people are charging and how shiftable is some of that charging.

David Roberts

I've been wondering if it makes sense to fold EVs into a larger VPP that includes all these other appliances, or whether they are kind of their own beast and you kind of need a separate โ€” just because they, relative to other household appliances, are very unique. They leave the house frequently. So, I've been wondering if you just need kind of a separate, vehicle-to-grid is going to be kind of a separate thing from residential VPPs.

Ben Brown

Yeah, I mean, I think that if I look at the different time horizons, right, and we talked about it a little bit in a position paper we put out a couple of months ago. When you look at over the next five years to hit meaningful scale for VPPs, a lot of that has got to be coming from HVAC and hot water. Just to be super clear, like there's just that we're not growing fast enough on EVs and storage and the cost benefits of storage.

It's just going to be hard to kind of move that as quickly as you need it to be to hit the scale that we're talking about to get to one hundred gigawatts of scale, as an example. But of course, as we think about how to support customers when they're adopting EVs or how to support customers when they're investing in solar and storage, and making sure that those assets are participating and supporting VPPs in aggregate.

Because to your question before, imagine like a perfect โ€” the best part of a population in five years could be that you have 90% of your households that are heating and cooling and hot water heating shifting or just heating and cooling, and then five percent or ten percent are both EVs and storage. And then actually, they can complement each other super well and at scale that hits what you want to from a gigawatt perspective. But they all have inherent benefits in terms of the types of shiftability they provide and so I think they all matter a ton.

They all have different scale in different time horizons, and that's why we're excited about partnering with folks across the industry. So, it's why we care about working with battery folks. It's why we're definitely working on the EV charging side as well. But it's one of those things that we really, from an urgency perspective, want to make sure that we're not just talking about smart thermostats. But for the next couple of years, I want to make sure that it's really clear to the industry that to light up these VPPs at scale โ€” we have three gigawatts of capacity ready to enroll in programs across the country.

David Roberts

You mean three gigawatts of installed thermostats?

Ben Brown

No, we have three gigawatts of ready-enrolled VPP flexible thermostat โ€”

David Roberts

Enrolled in your VPP, you have three gigs?

Ben Brown

And not all of those are enrolled directly into programs wherein they can provide the resources that the grid needs. And so, they're ready to go. They've already enrolled in terms of energy shiftability, but we haven't been able to bring them fully into the program where the grid and utilities in the local markets can value them completely.

David Roberts

And that's three gigs in Texas or is that everywhere?

Ben Brown

It's national.

David Roberts

And you're targeting some ludicrous amount, what, 30?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so we're actually targeting, I mean, again, by 2023 we're targeting 50. And again, I think that we all have to be setting aspirational goals here because โ€”

David Roberts

And no one knows. I mean, no one knows. This is such a fog of war here.

Ben Brown

Yeah. But I think it's important because the scale and the kind of challenges in front of us are so massive. And what I mentioned before too, the smart thermostat is one hundred percent like the first device that most people adopt along their home electrification journey. So our ability to take, you know, let's call it, you know, the five million plus households we work with. They, we know that as an example, Nest thermostat owners are three times plus more likely to be people that are adopting EVs, to be people that are thinking about solar and storage, to be thinking about heat pumps. So we really believe that we can help support accelerating that adoption curve even more so.

Going from building trust over the experience and seeing the value in enrolling a smart thermostat in a VPP and then being able to kind of grow a deeper relationship with a household so that they can do more is.

David Roberts

It fair to say that the value of a VPP scales linearly with its size? Like this thing just gets more and more powerful the more and more people you have enrolled and the more and more different kind of devices you have enrolled, right? I mean that's like to me the logic of VPPs is the ultimate end is like a Skynet style super intelligent central coordinator of all the devices in the country or whatever. Like if you, if you want ultimate efficiency, you want a super smart Skynet controlling all the devices.

Obviously, you know, I've got Cory in my head worrying me about monopoly power, monopolies, and lock-ins which militates the other way, right? Like you want competition. So what do you, how does that โ€” I mean this is all obviously down the road โ€” but how do you think about the logic of size and scale versus competition?

Ben Brown

I think that the whole benefit of VPPs โ€” and getting back to the thing you were talking about around the scale of value or how does value scale โ€” is that it's a decentralized, aggregated, consumer-driven resource. And so, when you have five hundred thousand households in a state equally distributed throughout all the different parts of the grid that need that resource on a localized level, it is a far more valuable resource, I believe, than a single centralized big power plant owned by a single company. And so, I think that being able to have those resources distributed both because they can provide more localized grid value but also because they provide a massive amount of redundancy.

We talked before about the big difference between the type of smart thermostat programs we've run over the last decade. The fundamental part of it is that users always have control. If we're adjusting the thermostat by a degree, they can always change it. They have complete control all the time. But the benefit you have when you have one hundred thousand of those users is, you can, you know, balance each other. And you know, not only are we very smart about anticipating needs so we actually have very low kind of opt-outs and kind of in events and things like that, but you also are able to do that across the benefits of, you know, laws of large numbers, right?

David Roberts

Exactly. If you have fifty participants, you have to juice all their thermostats by five degrees. If you have five million, you can juice all their thermostats by 0.1 degrees and get the same effect, and they won't notice. Which gets back to my logic, why not just aggregate everything into one giant VPP? What is the limiting logic, I guess?

Ben Brown

At the end of the day, there's always great competition in building this out. We have a lot of partners that we work with. There's a lot of other folks that are innovating in this space. We're not the only ones. Right now, we're still at the phase where we have to prove scale. I think that's why we've been so public about our numbers and so public about talking about "No, like, this isn't a new thing."

That's kind of why, even when you were asking questions earlier on about VPPs and DR, I'm like, "No, we've done this for ten years. We have millions of households enrolled and it's here. It's ready to be enrolled and it's highly personalized." So, to your point as well, it's like there are some households where a shift of 0.3 degrees is what's meaningful now and another household actually where they care about maxing out savings, so two degrees makes sense.

Or another household, no one's home and so I think that all those things really are this amazing benefit again of like distributed โ€” you know, you talked about VPPs and obviously, I think a lot of us like to think about it as a distributed power plant, but that's the whole benefit of that. Batteries can also represent a key component of it, but it's so helpful when you have that plus a million thermostats right because you're able to do all these much more interesting things and the scale is meaningful at the utility level.

David Roberts

Yeah, and anybody who's studied or even read about computer science, or like I used to be in philosophy programs and read a lot about cognitive science, knows the merits of distribution are highly theorized. There are millions of books about it and they're very deep. You know, but just intuitively, I think people can get that they degrade gracefully.

Like you could lose, you know, if you have five million households enrolled and like one hundred thousand households go offline all of a sudden, it's pretty seamless, right? Like, it adapts seamlessly, it degrades gracefully. There's all sorts of merits to doing things in a distributed way that reduces the risks you have when it's all centralized in one place. It was a long obsession of mine in grad school, thinking about how the brain works in a distributed way but anyway, that's all off topic.

One thing I wanted to ask is, you are operating in Texas, which is very market-ish relative to other electricity markets, and they have retail competition in Texas. So, Texas is kind of like the petri dish for a lot of different people I talked to on this pod, trying out their new thing because it's kind of a wild west. What regulatory environment do you require to set up a VPP? Could you do it in the Southeast where they have the vertically integrated monopolies? Can you do it in any wholesale power market? Where could this work outside of Texas?

Ben Brown

To your question before, I mean, we're already doing it in many markets across the country.

David Roberts

Texas and California.

Ben Brown

Yeah, so to define it, we have more of a direct market enrolled VPP where we're working directly into wholesale energy markets, and so that is in California and that's in Texas where we are also partnered. Either we are running our own REP, which we have our own REP with OhmConnect Energy, and then a โ€”

David Roberts

Retail Energy Provider.

Ben Brown

Exactly. Sorry for the shorthand. And then also, now we partnered massively with NRG and then we also operate in wholesale markets in New York as well. Then, in addition to that, to your question around the Southeast, that's where the one hundred plus utility programs that we built over the last decade come into play. Most of those programs and most of those utilities that we're partnered with, they're all really interested and excited about being able to expand and invest in building large scale residential VPPs. And so, in those markets where the regulatory structure is different, that's where we have kind of more of a direct engagement with those utilities to build out that resource.

David Roberts

Do the utilities, I mean in those markets, in those areas of the country, the non-restructured, pre-structured markets, the utility owns power plants. So, do they own the VPP in that case? Are you some sort of contractor that helps them create it? Like, who owns the VPP in a southeastern context?

Ben Brown

Because these are DIY and were brought to us by customers bringing them along, customers own it, right. It's a distributed customer VPP. And so, when we think about how and some of the regulatory support that we've been working with utilities on, it is giving them a way to be able to make it easier to actually procure capacity with us, with customers. And so, that kind of looks more like a true power plant in those markets where they'd be buying it similar to an independent power producer from another entity, and we, on their behalf, would be buying it from customers.

David Roberts

But this can be done anywhere in the US?

Ben Brown

It's not โ€” as we mentioned before, it is not, especially with FERC 2222, it has not been completely set up and supported across all the different ISOs and RTOs. It's adopted differently and then definitely within the state level and regulatory environment for utilities. We keep on working with them to find creative ways to expand on this. But there could be even better support, absolutely, from regulators around making it easy for a utility to say, "This residential VPP of five hundred megawatts, we can say this is accredited capacity and you, utility, can use this as part of your resource planning." And so, I think that's an important thing that we're starting to see and we're all talking about.

David Roberts

When you think about what politicians could do to help structure and rationalize and grow this market, is there a big federal lever to pull or is this mostly a state thing? Is it mostly a utility thing? Is it utility regulatory commissions, FERC, who can help here by doing what?

Ben Brown

So, it's all the above, and I think we're definitely planning for the environment over the next few years to really be focused on the state level and definitely continue to work with utilities. I think, you know, from our experience over the last fifteen years, a lot of amazing work has been done on the state level. I think that's where we've seen a lot of these kinds of programs come to life and grow.

And I think, on the state and the utility level, I think we're, as we mentioned before, we are all good friends in trying to solve the massive supply challenge we have in front of us. And so, I think everyone is the best of friends in trying to figure this out right now and I think that's a very, I'm really optimistic because of that.

David Roberts

Yeah, I think that's such an important point to emphasize. It's such a change and it's happened so quickly, I'm not sure people have caught up with it. But like, you're not fighting these partisan battles as much anymore. It's not a zero-sum game anymore. Everybody wants whatever is available, whenever and wherever it is available. Like everybody, everybody's oriented in the same direction for once, which is a really fundamentally new situation in our world.

Ben Brown

Absolutely.

David Roberts

Do distribution โ€” conceptually, this all makes total sense. VPP, all makes total sense, but it sort of assumes seamless power flow among all your connected houses โ€” do the limitations of distribution grids and distribution networks impose any meaningful restraints on you or hurt you, or is that an impediment to you?

Ben Brown

No, I mean, I think the more and more that those are actually incorporated into the way in which the resource can be valued, the better. Because of the fact that we're distributed, it actually makes it so that we can be really thoughtful around targeting, you know, specific nodes or โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah, geographical targeting, another thing a normal power plant can't do.

Ben Brown

Yeah, and I think that's actually one of the things we're most excited about. A lot of the stuff that we've been talking about with our utility partners and showcasing in our platform behind the scenes is all these amazing things that we can do with our customers to be able to kind of help provide more targeted benefits to the grid, especially as the distribution grids are going to be going through more challenges with deeper EV adoption, more electric. You know, obviously, load growing on more parts of the grid with home electrification.

And so, I think the ability to actually be really targeted about that and help kind of defer or avoid a bunch of crazily costly distribution grid upgrades. I think that, you know, we all are exhausted with rising energy costs, whether that's because of system upgrades or because of new power plants that need to be built. And I think that's why VPP is being by far the cheapest resource, both from a capacity side but also from an ability to be thoughtful about distribution upgrades that need to be made. I just think end to end, it's such a powerful resource. It's not just that it's the only one. I think it also provides so many of these ancillary benefits that we're really excited about.

David Roberts

Yeah, even if you throw in some grid upgrade costs, it's still cheaper, I think, than building power plants. Well, as a final question, and this is sort of one of the geekier aspects of this which I really am taken with: People who are familiar with conventional traditional demand response programs, you know, a lot of those were manual, I guess analog, I guess you'd say. You know, a lot of them traditionally involved, you know, like customers getting emails saying, "Hey, could you turn your AC down on Wednesday?"

Things like that. So, but all those were geared around, I think, designed around big, chunky responses to big, chunky events. So, like, you got a big storm or something, you need a sudden, big surge of power away from here into there, and that's what demand response is for. I think that's the mental model people have of demand response, insofar as they're aware of it at all.

These are small groups of people we're talking about, but that's how people think about demand response. And what you're doing here, what the internet connection and the automaticity of this and the AI of all this does, is allow you to be making sort of micro tweaks constantly.

So instead of big chunky responses, you're constantly fiddling and balancing. So the way I think you capture this in one of your position papers is, you said you can't just shift a demand curve, which is like moving it from one place to another, you can shape it. So talk a little bit about what that means and what the implications are for the grid.

Ben Brown

First, as you mentioned, traditional demand response programs, which have provided a really important resource for critical events over the past twenty years, all the way going back to HVAC switch programs, which no one loves, all the way to smart thermostat programs, and a lot of innovations โ€”

David Roberts

I don't think anybody wants to get an email asking them to turn off their stuff, even if they can make money.

Ben Brown

Yeah, 100%, totally. And so, the ability to have smart thermostats support those kind of ten critical events more automatically, more thoughtfully, more personalized to users, that still will matter, and those things are important. But one of the stats that we mentioned a little earlier that I think is so exciting is that last year our platform did three billion energy shifts, three billion. And that is because that's across a large base of users on a more continuous basis. That might be fifteen minutes, it might be thirty minutes to shift out of a kind of dirtier grid mix or time on the grid when energy prices are more expensive because of the time-of-use rate or the real-time rate.

David Roberts

So you could tweak an individual house's consumption two or three times a day, like multiple times a day, in just little increments?

Ben Brown

To your point, too, in the smallest of ways, right? So, by 0.5 degrees in a way that is absolutely not noticeable but helps a customer save money or helps them maximize their โ€”

David Roberts

Do you guarantee people when they sign up that they won't notice comfort wise, like is that some sort of guarantee like "We promise you won't know this is happening"?

Ben Brown

I think it's even more interesting than that, which is what we do. We obviously deploy a lot of artificial intelligence and ML to be able to optimize our algorithms. And what we do is we're very cognizant of what the prevailing rate of changes would be on a thermostat manually.

So, if you're adjusting your thermostat manually or through the smartphone app, we know what that number is. And so, we actually think about optimizing the shiftability component here by ensuring that the prevailing rate doesn't actually change. So, kind of in an almost RCT style way, we really are trying to optimize for the fact that it's unnoticeable to customers.

And so, you're doing things in very, very small ways that provide them value, the grid value, but you're not actually changing, to your point, anything around comfort, which would be perceived through them changing the thermostat.

David Roberts

Right, right. So then you're doing these tweaks all day long, which means you cannot just herd into peak times and reduce peaks, you can sort of flatten the demand curve throughout the day, right? The ideal, like in our perfect future, the demand curve is just flat, right? And it's very predictable, everybody knows exactly how to meet it, there's no spikes or anything. We could get there, right?

Ben Brown

Actually, I think it even needs to be better than that, which is in the new world we're moving into where supply is variable and demand is the thing that you don't want it to be flat. You actually probably want it to be much more responsive to the real-time needs of the grid and the anticipated needs of the grid. And you have to think about something like a smart thermostat or charging, you also have to be anticipating how to optimize that against when people are in their rhythms and when people are moving in and out of the home and what they need.

And so, there's a lot of complexity that goes into that so that you can maximize the value to the grid, minimize cost to customers, while actually all maintaining an elevated level of experience in the home, whether that's comfort, whether that's time to charge, all these other dynamics.

And that's what's exciting about doing that at a scaled level is that you can really do these things in highly personalized ways that actually elevate customer experience because one, they're achieving the same kind of control over comfort, but they're actually doing it at significantly less cost and they're supporting decarbonizing the grid at the same time.

David Roberts

When we say customers save money, I forgot to ask this earlier, but I might as well ask you now, what does that mean? Is that like a couple bucks a month, ten bucks a month, like what do we, what's the range? How meaningful is it? I mean, given that all they have to do is check a box and then they're done, I guess anything is gravy, but like how, what kind of numbers are we talking about?

Ben Brown

Yeah, so when we think about customer savings, there is both from the efficiency side โ€” so when you adopt a smart thermostat, we've done a lot of research on this. You're likely to save ten to fifteen percent on heating and cooling in your home versus not having it, just because it's smarter about not heating and cooling your home when you're not home compared to a prevailing programmable thermostat or a non-smart thermostat or essentially an old standard, not smart thermostat. There's that.

I think in the future we're moving into, and what we've seen over time with optimization against what has become more prevailing, which are time of use rates, there's even more significant savings that can be had there. Because if your peak period is from four to nine PM, really anticipating the fact that you could pre-cool your house.

David Roberts

Yeah, pre-cool. You could preheat, you could preheat your water, you can pre-do a lot of stuff. 100%, I really appreciate that.

Ben Brown

That adds up, and we're talking about a meaningful amount of money each year. I mean, it varies by climate, region, and state and stuff like that, so it's hard to go through an average number, but we're talking about something that people will feel, and they see when they interact with our product.

David Roberts

And finally, I asked this of the Base Power guys too. You're probably familiar with Base Power. They're another retail provider down in Texas doing something not totally dissimilar, but they're basically installing batteries on customer property. They use them for energy arbitrage, sell energy when it's expensive, store it when it's cheap, and share some of the profits with the homeowners where they have installed the batteries. And what I asked them is, "If once you get enough controllable load, isn't the opportunity for arbitrage going to eventually go away?"

Like, do you know what I mean? Like, aren't we eventually, once we have your fifty gigs of controllable load or whatever, beyond however far we go, isn't arbitrage, aren't you going to eat your own lunch eventually? Eventually, there's going to be nothing left to arbitrage. Does that make sense?

Ben Brown

Yeah, I think it's kind of a good first-order principles way of thinking about it, and I think that what's happening in the background at the same time, though, is that more of the supply resource that's coming onto the grid is variable.

David Roberts

Yes, you're chasing a receding target, I guess.

Ben Brown

Yeah, so to your point, there's definitely a point in time where optimizations only go so far. But when the baseline is going from 20% of your mix is variable to 50% or hopefully 70%, then you're in a world where you're really trying to balance that. And even if you're โ€” especially in that world where there's maybe a couple of really critical moments a few times a year when the grid is tremendously under stress, then I think you're seeing a ton of value from these things for a long time. I think that we're talking about, I think we're fifteen years of really trying to grow this resource where we have hundreds of gigawatts of flexible resource across the grid that will help support decarbonize more variable supply resources coming on.

David Roberts

And you think we'll get to a place where buildings are connected to the internet and their load is somewhat controlled as a kind of matter of fact, as a default, as a universal, like all buildings eventually or something close to all buildings, you think that's where we're headed?

Ben Brown

I think that the ability for customers to save a lot of money by being able to manage their costs more effectively is such a big driver of this. It's not โ€” this is kind of what you were asking before around standards and regulation. There's a ton that we need to be doing on the standardization and regulation around ensuring that customers can receive the benefits they're generating for the grid by doing these things. But I think the value will be so massive to a customer versus them not doing that, that I think it becomes more of just like, "Yeah, I'm worried about my rising energy costs, I want to be thoughtful about this, I want to be responsible."

David Roberts

Right, awesome. Well, this is such interesting stuff, such an incredibly fluid, promising, and interesting industry to be in. So, thanks for coming on and talking us through.

Ben Brown

Well, thank you so much.

David Roberts

Check back in a year or two and see. I mean, who knows what things will look like.

Ben Brown

Oh, absolutely. Well, thank you so much for having me, and yeah, we'll have a lot coming, so I'm sure we'll probably want to talk more before that.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Should we put utilities in charge of distributed energy?

In this episode, I speak with Pier LaFarge, CEO of Sparkfund, who challenges the traditional antagonism between utilities and distributed energy advocates. While investor-owned utilities have long been seen as obstacles to clean energy adoption, LaFarge argues that they're actually essential to scaling DERs in an era of explosive electricity demand.

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Text transcript:

David Roberts

Greetings. This is Volts for December 18, 2024, "Should we put utilities in charge of distributed energy?" I'm your host, David Roberts. When people involved with distributed energy resources, or DERs, talk about utilities, it is usually with considerable frustration. As I have ranted on Volts many times, the regulatory structure under which investor-owned utilities operate biases them toward big spending on big projects and away from energy efficiency and DERs, both of which reduce the need for utility spending and thus reduce utility profits.

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Clean energy advocates often wish utilities would just get out of the way. Pier LaFarge, the CEO and founder of a company called Sparkfund, wants to put them in the driver's seat.

Pier LaFarge
Pier LaFarge

Electricity demand is set to skyrocket, requiring up to a doubling of today's grid capacity, even as fossil fuel power plants are being phased out. Utilities are, LaFarge argues, the only institutions capable of accomplishing change of that scale in the time available.

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The key is just to let them procure DERs like they procure any other energy resource. This deceptively simple-sounding argument runs somewhat counter to the energy world zeitgeist, but it has drawn the attention of lots of smart people. And the more I've thought about it, the more intrigued I am and the more questions I have.

So, I am excited to talk with him about it today. With no further ado, Pier LaFarge, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Pier LaFarge

David Roberts. It's great to be here.

David Roberts

You know the meme where the guy's mind is successively further blown? Let's start all the way at the galaxy brain level and work backwards from there. You've said before that, big picture wise, you see our current moment as kind of the end of phase one or chapter one of the clean energy transition and glimmers of entering into phase two. Phase one being characterized sort of by consumer choice, by ESG, by carbon credits, by sort of companies going above and beyond thanks to the prodding of green consumers, let's say. The second phase, you say, is going to be more about an infrastructure mindset.

So, just to begin with and to frame things, spell that out a little bit, talk a little bit about what you mean by that, big picture-wise.

Pier LaFarge

First of all, I just want to say, you know, chapter one had a lot of value in it, right? I'm sitting here because I was a Power Shift kid in 2007, you know, reading you in Grist, you know, and I mean it. This is an honor to be here because, you know, you were one of the people who diverted my career into climate change, which is annoying.

David Roberts

So, yeah, sorry about that. That was back in the Waxman-Markey days, right?

Pier LaFarge

That's right. And I, my first internship was at One Sky, working in the trenches on Waxman-Markey and reading Grist and, you know, look, it's like whether it's a "Thank you" or not for showing me, showing me a wall to bang my head against for years.

David Roberts

Head, meet wall.

Pier LaFarge

Head, meet wall. Thanks, love, David Roberts.

David Roberts

You're welcome.

Pier LaFarge

But, I think that point though is really the chapter one. As a climate movement, as a renewable energy industry, we should be incredibly proud of the progress we've made. We've deployed an enormous amount of this stuff. We've dropped the cost curves, we've pushed the institutions and societal kind of compacts. Right. I see utilities really as just things we invented to go put energy infrastructure out there to start the party of electrification and industrial growth. And look, chapter one was all conducted in a world when the grid wasn't growing, when energy efficiency was doing its job, and when we were getting economic growth but without energy growth.

And that was core to the mission again in chapter one of climate progress. But that's changed. Chapter two really started when people realized the grid's going to double. And it's going to double for a whole new set of reasons. I always think back to the chapter one motivations as soft signal political economy trends, long-term trends around decarbonization, sustainability, consumer adoption, all of which were sort of dependent on interest rates and policy and politics and subsidy. What we've got now is a grid that's going to double because of hard signal political economy trends, manufacturing coming back to the United States, data centers spurring generative AI, which is about GDP growth. It's about long-term geopolitical competition.

It matters whether we put data centers in Ohio and Kansas versus Saudi Arabia. So now, in chapter two, the institution that our society built 100 plus years ago to power an electric economy is actually going to be good at deploying clean energy and DERs, whereas for the last 20 years, it really struggled to do that inside its compact.

David Roberts

This has come up on every one of my recent pods. And I, you know, I just think it's always worth emphasizing again that an age of flat electricity demand is just fundamentally different. It's just, you know, every bit you're pushing renewables on the grid, you have to take something else off. Every bit you add, you're subtracting something else. And as you say, these are for sort of soft, long-term motives that often are easy to bump back in the priority stack in the scrum of day-to-day politics. But now, whether you care about climate or not, big companies towing big sacks of money are showing up saying, "We need lots more power overnight."

So, everybody now is, whether they care about this or not, aligned in this direction, even if only for purely venal reasons.

Pier LaFarge

Right, you said it. And look, let me respond to that and then go back one point. Right now, when those companies show up, right, because we did our job in chapter one, David. Because we got the cost of renewables down, because DERs have value to the grid, because we've proven that through VPP pilots and programs, because we've actually done the work to deploy this stuff and build all the products and software around it that make it really valuable. Now, when those companies show up towing their bags of money and saying, "We will, for good reason, pay more for electrons than anyone in history because they're inputs into a fourth industrial revolution called AI."

And we're building AI refineries, not data centers. Right? And electrons and chips are what we need to scale what could be some of the most valuable buildings on the planet." If you run that math cold, right: climate, no climate, IRA, no IRA. If you run that math cold, to be formal about it, the techno-economics of that turns out, because we did our job, we're going to put a ton of renewables on the grid, we're going to put a ton of DERs out there because they're faster to build, they're cheaper, and they're better than upgrading distribution systems, for example.

David Roberts

And you think that's true regardless of any subsidy, regardless of any climate motivation?

Pier LaFarge

I do.

David Roberts

Do you think just on a pure physical economic basis?

Pier LaFarge

I do. I mean, the only thing that makes solar batteries and gensets look dead stupid cheap is comparing them to upgrading a substation or fixing transformer overload or building a new transmission line into a major US city. It does not matter whether you have a tax credit. If you're talking about, you know, for every $10 billion of smart grid you don't need to build, you build a smart sponge out of two or three billion dollars of batteries.

David Roberts

So, let's talk about what you're proposing. The basic idea is that right now, DERs are operating basically on a kind of a private, almost like a black market. They're just sort of outside the rest of the electricity system, just going on their own logic. And so, utilities, who are supposed to manage electricity, basically just encounter them sporadically, more or less randomly, and then have to react and often don't even see them, aren't notified when they're installed. And so, utilities are intuiting their existence via effects on the demand curve, basically. So, this just doesn't seem like an ideal situation, especially since we're on the front end of what I think everybody agrees is going to be a much larger flood of DERs.

So, your basic proposal here is that the utility needs X amount of capacity. It should be able to go procure that capacity the same way it would from a big power plant, from a DER aggregation, basically, that utilities are going to procure DERs. The acronym, everybody's got to have an acronym, the acronym is DCP (Distributed Capacity Procurement).

Pier LaFarge

David, I would have wasted my time at Power Shift in 2007 if I didn't go on to contribute to the number of acronyms in the climate space.

David Roberts

You're nobody without an acronym or two of your own.

Pier LaFarge

So, what we really do here is create new climate-related acronyms.

David Roberts

Talk about how that would work. Just talk about that model and why it's attractive.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, look, the Distributed Capacity Procurement idea is really simple. A utility is chartered to provide lowest cost, most reliable energy to support economic growth and prosperity of the state. And that charter has been around for a long time. When the grid wasn't growing, it actually turned out that, you know, a lot of the times renewables were part of that charter. Right. Utilities have procured tens of gigawatts of renewables all over the country. Right. Wind, solar, but at utility scale. DERs were rarely a good fit when the grid wasn't growing. But now that the grid needs to grow and DERs have come down in price โ€”

so, solar, batteries, gensets, controls, connected assets, demand response, a whole range of distributed capacity, eventually vehicles participating โ€” now that those things are in fact low enough cost and reliable enough, and the grid needs to double, simply put, it now fits the charter. And utilities can incorporate distributed energy resources into their core planning. They can tell us where the assets need to go, how many they need, and they can plan that in a way that really directly impacts and offsets the money they would otherwise spend on upgrading the distribution network.

David Roberts

Let's back up a little bit. Just say one or two more sentences about why demand growing makes DERs more amenable to the charter.

Pier LaFarge

A couple of reasons. The goal, as I see it, for chapter two, for the next 20 or 30 years of the energy transition, is to double the capacity of the grid in a way that lets us sell three to four times the number of electrons to folks like manufacturing data centers, electric car drivers, home heat pump owners, all that stuff. So, if we double the capacity of the grid to move and distribute electrons and sell three to four times the electrons over that doubled grid, electricity is going to get cheaper and more reliable if we do it the right way. So, that's good news.

That's the goal. Utilities exist to plan and capitalize on those moments of needed growth to support economic development and stuff we want, broadly speaking. And so, DERs in particular are important for two basic reasons. One, you can build lots of small things faster than you can build a few very big things. That's particularly true because of permitting, NIMBYism, and political constraints. You've covered this enormously well on this podcast, and it's all over this space in the sense of how hard it is to build big things fast. So, you can build lots of small things more quickly.

And if you're using central planning, if you're using the utility to determine how many they need and bringing that into the core of planning and where they need them, you also get this really interesting effect where you don't have to have this be something that's happening to utilities that they can't see coming. That is difficult from a system standpoint. Because look, you can say that utilities are just being grumpy and don't like DERs, but like, they're central planners, they're managing a landscape scale machine. And it is actually hard when things pop on and off and send electrons backwards.

It's not like a metaphor. It's not like they're not just being grumpy for no reason. It is actually hard to do that. Could utilities get better at it? Could they buy more products, services, software, and companies to help them get better at it? Yes, I think they could. And I also think in this moment in economic history, they're going to. And I think that what we're describing with the Distributed Capacity Procurement is frankly how that happens. It's how you bring Distributed Energy Resources into the proactive core of utility planning and finally take them to multi-gigawatt procurements that actually get out into the ecosystem and get done right.

David Roberts

You know, I think listeners will be familiar with the sort of long-running debates about the value of distributed energy, the value of rooftop solar. Right. This big fight. It's a big fight. Everywhere there's rooftop solar. You know, California has just been through a big fight about it. And I think one of the things that's come out of that debate is that there is the value of DERs. There's not a set answer to that question. It depends on where they are and when they run. Right. Like geography and time matter on the grid. So you can't just say rooftop solar has x value.

It depends on where you put it. So, the first obvious thing to recommend this model is that, by your logic, utilities know where DERs are most valuable, where they are most needed, and can direct, if they use this model, can procure them where they're needed, rather than just having them pop up randomly in time and space.

Pier LaFarge

With a few years of work, I mean, it's true that utilities are not suited to do feeder up planning universally. Right. There is work to be done. They need to buy new software tools. We can definitely come back to that. So, it's not an off-the-truck solution. But I would say the reason that this Distributed Capacity Procurement idea has gained so much traction so quickly, David, is that the moment of economic history we're in is faster moving than people could have possibly imagined. We saw EVs coming. It used to be just 18 months ago that electric vehicles were the biggest source of load growth.

And then, maybe it was home heat pumps. And now, EVs are like a distant super third on the list. Manufacturing is number two, which in and of itself would be the biggest news in electrification in 20 or 30 years. Except, it's dwarfed by data centers and generative AI.

David Roberts

Yeah, this is what I keep trying to tell people. It's like, yes, the data centers are coming. Yes, more demand is coming, but that is just the front edge of a much, much bigger wedge of electrification coming along. All of transportation, all of the industry, basically, like the whole economy. So, like, data centers look big from our current vantage point, but in the final analysis here, the whole economy is. That's what we've been saying. You know what I mean? Like, it's just sinking in now.

Pier LaFarge

That's what we've been advocating for a decade. Also, data centers, people always do this funny thing where they're like, "Oh, the grid's going to double, but not if the data centers don't show up." It's like, no, if the data centers get like 80% more efficient, then the grid will only double because of all those other things. And the data centers, if the data centers just all showed up on their current queues, the grid would 5x or 10x. And by the way, that wouldn't even happen because we couldn't possibly build it fast enough.

So, like, you just end up in this conversation where, baseline, our job is to double the US electric grid in terms of capacity to move and distribute electrons and do that safely, reliably, and in a way that actually doesn't create fires or other issues. And then also to sell a huge amount more electrons that are intermittent, that are clean, that are, you know, every possible source of electrons. And by doing that, again, said this before, the math in the grid is really simple. It's the cost of the infrastructure divided by how many electrons you sell equals the cost of electrons.

And if we do this right, electrons will get cheaper. And if part of doing that cheaply means doubling the grid by putting batteries and generators and solar all over the grid, on every feeder that needs it, on every transformer that would otherwise overload, on every substation that would otherwise need to be upgraded, not only will we save money now, we're also going to make the grid fractally reliable and enormously more resilient to the very real โ€” I think of climate change as a dragon sitting on our society with teeth, claws, and a tail. It's not a game.

And real people with real lives are vulnerable to it. And so, the way we grow our grid is always, and has always been, about shared prosperity, economic development, and fundamentally keeping people safe downstream of that electric power.

David Roberts

And I think it's worth emphasizing too, maybe I'm overdoing this point, but I do think it's important that even if you're one of these, like, "big is beautiful" people, even if ultimately you think that, like, utility-scale stuff is cheaper and better and is the ultimate answer, it is still simply the case that there is nothing big โ€” and I'm not just talking about a nuclear plant, I'm talking about a transmission line, any kind of power plant โ€” there's nothing big we know how to build as fast as we're looking at these electricity demand numbers go up. Like, even if we agree that big stuff is the key, it's just the case that we cannot build big stuff fast enough on the timeline that we're looking at in front of us.

Only small distributed stuff scales fast enough. There's just no way around that. I've never heard a counter to that.

Pier LaFarge

Amen. And it's fundamentally true. The historic role that DERs are going to play in the energy transition in this coming decade really comes down to not only that you can build it faster, right? It's a critical one to five-year solution. It's also that you can put it exactly where the grid needs it to avoid exactly the type of expenditures that drive rates up, which is distribution upgrades. Right. If renewables were the only thing that we needed, you could buy 1.7 cents wind in North Dakota and move it and the price of power would go down.

But guess what? 1.7 cent wind, 2 cent solar is not making the grid cheaper, it makes it more expensive because you have to upgrade feeders and substations to handle the intermittency to move that very cheap, very reliable, very clean power. And people unironically experience bill increases because you've had to upgrade the distribution network to handle both the growth in power and the intermittency.

David Roberts

Maybe people already know this, but this is also worth putting a pin in. It's just that the rise in electricity costs, which is happening everywhere now, is almost entirely transmission and distribution.

Pier LaFarge

That's right.

David Roberts

It is moving the power around. So, insofar as you can deploy DERs and prevent yourself from having to do some of that T&D upgrade, you also make the growth of the big stuff faster. Like anything you can do to reduce T&D costs is the lord's work. So, let's get into the details a little bit. So, what does it look like? I'm a utility, I go, say there's a node on my grid that is congested or whatever. And I feel like, you know what would help me? There is a bunch of solar and storage.

And so I, the utility, say I want whatever 50 megawatts of capacity in this defined geographic region. And then what? They just put out an RFP and they say, "Come to us with your DERs." And so private companies then say, "We can do that. We can pull together 50 megawatts of capacity in this area," and they bid. Is that the process?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, pretty close. And look, I think this will look different in every state. So, you know, Sparkfund is sort of one model of it, isn't the only way this is going to go down, I don't think. But utilities are good at planning and capitalizing infrastructure, and they're not very good at building lots of small projects. So, I see in all cases this Distributed Capacity Procurement concept being delivered by a local competitive ecosystem of DER companies and vendors. Right? So, folks who go out and bid on it and say, "We can do a good job in your area and can comply with utility requirements of safety and all that stuff," but ultimately these are small local companies who are going to grow really quickly.

And by the way, David, it addresses one of the biggest barriers that our industry, my industry, right โ€” I am, you know, this is what Sparkfund is, is building these things. Fundamentally, the biggest issue we've had for decades is it's hard to sell this stuff to people. The sales cycles are long, the conversion rates are long, the marketing is expensive. You end up with saturation in different territories. And so, it's hard to build a business around such unpredictable demand. And what this represents, what a Distributed Capacity Procurement represents to the DER industry, is turning utilities into the largest wholesale customer this industry has ever seen by a factor of 10 or 100 in most states.

David Roberts

Yeah, so you get big chunks, big buyers. But I'm still a little confused. So, like, if I'm a household in that area, who is coming to pitch me and what are they pitching me on? And when the solar panel shows up on my roof and the battery shows up in my backyard, who owns them?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, great question. So again, this is just one way this could happen. This is our Distributed Capacity Procurement model. But a DCP has three basic parts. The utility plans and capitalizes. It says, "Here's where we need it, here's how many and of what type," and then on the other side โ€” so that's layer one, right. On the other side, you've got the local competitive ecosystem of vendors who are bidding into tranches of needed construction.

David Roberts

These are rooftop solar installers?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah.

David Roberts

Also aggregators?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, solar installers, battery companies, genset companies, demanders. Anyone who believes they can fit into these tranches and provide the capacity needed. But that middle layer, right, which I think has really been the thing that's missing, is what we call deployment services. Right. And Sparkfund's business is to be that middle layer. We want to be the thing that helps utilities interface well with their customers. So, we do customer engagement. We go out and knock on the door, and instead of trying to sell them a battery or a solar panel, we ask a customer to host a utility asset.

Something that makes their building more reliable, their neighbors more reliable. We give them a hosting payment to take the asset, so they get an ongoing annuity from the utility to host it. And then we do what we call value chain management. Right. So, go out and build that local competitive ecosystem. We form like a light general contracting layer to coordinate all the contract and dispatch of those vendors. Because one thing that would take utilities way too long to do is sign master service agreements and service agreements with 100 local small companies. So, we become like the shock absorber between the utility, the customer, and the DER.

David Roberts

So, they put out an RFP, they say, "We want 50 megawatts of firm capacity here in this neighborhood." You take that, go find the customers, sign the customers up. Find the vendors, sign them up, oversee the work so that this is installed and operating well.

Pier LaFarge

That's right.

David Roberts

You're all that stuff in the middle. So, again, who owns the battery? Who owns the DERs at the end of this? Like, it only makes sense for the utility to procure these DERs in a particular area if the utility then can subsequently have some control over it. Right? Because it only helps the utility if the utility controls it.

So, it's not just that the utility needs to have solar panels and batteries installed. It also needs some kind of control software to which it has access. So, again, I'm sort of like getting confused, like, where the ownership lines and the operating lines are drawn here. So, if I'm a homeowner, who owns my solar panels and batteries?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, so the operating piece is the most important from the grid value. So, what the utility really needs fundamentally to make this model work is the ability to control contractually, right, control and dispatch these pieces of equipment in a way that benefits the grid and meets their grid's needs.

David Roberts

Right. Making them dispatchable is the whole point here.

Pier LaFarge

So, that has to be true. You can give the customer some, maybe like a residual charge for resilience, but frankly, if you're supersaturating a feeder, if you have a feeder with 900 buildings on it and 500 of them have batteries and solar, that feeder is going to become, like, super reliable. Right. That's what I call fractal reliability. But setting that aside for a second, ownership is a legal question. But what is critical is that the utility recognizes the value of DERs to the grid and capitalizes them in a way that they can earn on and recover inside their regulatory model, which aligns their incentive and also is directly comparable to the capital they would otherwise be deploying on feeder upgrades or substations.

And ultimately, it's that capitalization and planning and dispatch ability that anchors this model. Legally, the customer could own it. You could have the homeowner have title to it. I think in residential, a lot of times, utilities will be hesitant to own batteries or other things, particularly solar panels on a customer's roof in a residential context. I think in commercial, industrial, and municipal utilities will be much more comfortable owning and operating assets, and that has to do with different contracts and safety and indemnification issues. So, ownership, who legally has title to the asset, is actually pretty flexible in this model.

But the utility has to capitalize it, recover, and earn on that capital, be able to plan where and what type, and then dispatch and control the asset to maximize grid value.

David Roberts

In many ways, this is not novel at all. This is just exactly what utilities do.

Pier LaFarge

I say that, David, I say that in every conversation. All I've just explained is that utilities should be utilities. And now that we need to double the grid, that will and should include DERs and a bunch of renewables. That's it.

David Roberts

Right. So, they go, they procure, they operate, they get a set rate of return on their investment. All of that is very familiar from the large-scale stuff. So, my question here is, if they need to control it, what are the VPPs doing? Like, if I go to one of these areas and sign up 50 households into a VPP and then I'm running the VPP, I'm controlling those devices, how then does the utility also control those devices? Is the utility then contracting with me?

Pier LaFarge

So, this is where we get a little bit into two things. One, the sort of nesting doll of acronyms and then also like, look, the answer is it could be different in a bunch of different utilities. That's what's cool about our energy system, is that it could be different 50 different ways. But our view is that the Distributed Capacity Procurement is a type of VPP. We think this is part of the VPP sort of moment and that this is just a utility-led, utility-planned, utility-capitalized, and dispatched VPP that's then built out of an infrastructure value chain of a bunch of local vendors and suppliers and then we become the deployment middle ground, or someone like Sparkfund becomes the deployment services middle layer.

David Roberts

So, wait, let me just make sure I understand that. So, the utility then is basically controlling the VPP, is the operator of the VPP. So, what happens if I go to an area and there are already a bunch of households signed up with some other VPP?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, pretty much every utility that we've talked to who is seriously engaged with a DERMS process (Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems), really think of their DERMS, the utility DERMS, as an aggregator of aggregators or pulling up existing interoperable systems. So, I think there's a lot of space for those existing ones. But I also think that the reality is utilities' experience with aggregator-led VPPs and regulators' experience with aggregator-led VPPs has been pretty bad, and for a couple of reasons. One, having a customer in the neighborhood get pitched by two or three different companies to sign up for a program is annoying.

David Roberts

I've been wondering about this. I mean, this is like, I'm sorry to interrupt your thing here, but before I forget this, we forgot to sort of finish our first point, which is chapter two being about infrastructure. And so, the thrust of that, the thrust of clean energy becoming infrastructure in chapter two, is that it becomes like the rest of our infrastructure. That is, you as an individual consumer don't have to worry about it. It's just there, working in the background. And if we want to make energy like infrastructure, part of what that implies is it's just there in the background, working.

Just like your electricity is in the background working and you're not futzing and fiddling with individual, you know, different vendors for different rooms of your house or whatever. Like, it's just there, it works. So, if you're talking about making DERs into infrastructure, basically, which is what this is, that sort of implies that you're getting rid of the model where individual consumers go shop around for different VPP vendors. You know, are like, "You can control my water heater, you can control my EV," you know, maybe even sign up to two different VPPs. Like, I've been wondering how this market's going to shake out and it seems like it could very easily get a) overwhelming for the consumer and b) just ripe for a lot of scams because these VPP vendors are going to have a massive information asymmetry.

They're going to know what's going on, they're going to know what's going on on the grid. Consumers don't know anything. So, if you're going to put utilities in this position, it seems like that is de facto going to get rid of the private Wild West VPP market.

Pier LaFarge

No, I agree. I call it the wild dogs problem. You've got five companies out there that are hiring folks, often on week-to-week quotas. Eventually, you're going to end up with high-pressure sales tactics. You're going to end up with misinformation issues.

David Roberts

Happening in rooftop solar, right now, we should say, is a huge problem.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, not like this is a hypothetical and it's true in VPPs. And by the way, David, look, one of the other problems from an energy, equity, and justice standpoint is the people who are most capable and interested from a time and attention standpoint in having that conversation are not always the right people from a vulnerability standpoint. Right. I think that one of the problems with the current VPP model is that it's going and engaging a subset of highly motivated, engaged, you know, customers. And it's actually taking grid value and putting it in the places that the grid needs it least.

We should build models that can engage vulnerable communities while giving them the dignity of just being people, right? Of going about their days, about going to restaurants and being in the community and going โ€”

David Roberts

The other thing about infrastructure is it's universal.

Pier LaFarge

It lets people be people. My favorite thing about the US electric grid is that when I go into a restaurant to buy a sandwich, I don't need to worry whether or not the lights are on, whether the oven is working, or whether my sandwich will be twice as expensive because I walked into a restaurant with the wrong cost of energy. Infrastructure means it's in the background, and the entire economy is downstream of our infrastructure outcomes, just like roads. And I think that's what makes it a natural monopoly. It's what makes it a great candidate for a regulated monopoly.

And it means that providing electric power, right, for however many cents on the dollar our economy spends on electric power, maybe 3 or 4 cents, the other 97 cents on the economy happen because of that electric power. And we often forget in this industry to really tell ourselves the story of what energy is for. You know, it is about sandwiches. This is Amory'sโ€”

David Roberts

Cold beer, hot showers.

Pier LaFarge

Cold beer, hot showers. Exactly. You got it, right? I probably learned that from you in an article in like 2008, as I think about it now, but reminding ourselves what the energy economy is even for and why we invented it the way we did to fuel post-war industrialization and before that, rural electrification.

I mean, this was built as a societal scale franchise to be a foundation of shared prosperity so that people could not have to think about it and focus on being people. Picking their kids up from school, teaching students, taking care of patients, building a business. That's what the energy economy is for.

David Roberts

And so, part of it becoming infrastructure means basically that every building, as a matter of course, is going to have some devices in it that are networked and connected to the grid as a matter of course, not as some sort of elective consumer choice. It's just something that buildings do. But I want to be clear here. So, this model leaves a private DER industry, right? You still have people selling the solar panels and the devices and maybe home management, but in terms of aggregation, the utilities are going to do that. The utilities are going to be the aggregators, which will leave no room for private aggregators.

I just want to make sure I fully understand that.

Pier LaFarge

That's right. But what it leaves a lot of room for are the companies that know how to engineer, design, develop, build, and maintain distributed energy resources. It leaves a lot of room, in fact, it creates new room for those companies because it creates a wholesale buyer at gigawatt scale, which doesn't exist today. And it also creates a huge need on the part of utilities and that whole value chain for the software and services that make a distributed energy resource value chain efficient and scalable.

David Roberts

Right. Well, here's where I think the market people ride in, hear their galloping feet approaching โ€”

Pier LaFarge

The Hayekian hooves.

David Roberts

Yes, the Hayekian brigade approaches and saying, "If you want to manage โ€” right, VPPs are kind of a new thing. This whole area is kind of new. And if you have a new uncertain technology, this is where markets excel. You need market competition, which will find the best way to manage VPP, the best, the right way to aggregate, the right way to find consumers, et cetera, et cetera. If you give it to a utility, you remove market competition. And thus, they're just going to buy some suboptimal software and run the VPP suboptimally. And the only force pushing against that will not be market competition, it will be their regulators". We return to the problem of regulators having an information asymmetry and being captured and not being great at their jobs. Among other things, this model seems to assume staffing and competence both in utilities and in PUCs.

Pier LaFarge

Well, the way I think those concerns can be addressed, because they're real concerns, are: 1) much of the value of competition, in my view in the DER market, and I know this because my own businesses participate in it in this way, comes down to bidding the best design system with new components, good engineering, and making bets that you can deliver with a fair margin and lowering costs. A system that will provide value that it says it does over its lifetime and then go maintain it. That type of competition in terms of DER design, in terms of new uptake technology, that part of the competition is left entirely to the competitive ecosystem of DER suppliers.

That a utility is just simply receiving bids on a price per megawatt basis.

David Roberts

Well, in a sense, the utility is almost structuring the market.

Pier LaFarge

That's right.

David Roberts

The utility is almost kind of creating a little mini-market for DERs.

Pier LaFarge

And that works very well when they go out and bid for wind, solar, and power plants, gas plants, and transmission lines. That's exactly how the energy economy really works in a lot of places. And I am not proposing that utilities build in-house engineering, design, development. I'm not proposing a Ma Bell kind of dystopian scenario where they tell you which type of telephone you get this decade. The hardware outcomes are where that Hayekian fervor was born. And the hardware outcomes, the engineering innovation, the system markets like new companies coming on and selling innovative products into a thousand or 10,000 or 100,000 decision makers that bring them into the world and make them part of the infrastructure outcomes that people then benefit from or not.

That is intact here because there are hundreds of thousands of DER suppliers who will be making those choices. And if they can bid in at the lowest price to utility distributed capacity procurement, that's why it's a procurement. The utility is buying DERs on a needed megawatt basis in the places the grid needs it most. But that competition is alive and well in terms of how those DERs are built, performed, and connected.

David Roberts

Got it. And so, like, there's still customer choice here. Like, customers are still kind of in the driver's seat. They don't get any devices they don't want. They don't hook up to any VPP if they don't want to. So, what happens if I'm a utility, I use an RFP for 50 megawatts of whatever capacity. You win the auction, you win the RFP, and then you go out and customer acquisition proves difficult. Customers prove to not be swayed by your pitch, even though, you know, it's worth noting that this is somewhat of a better pitch.

Rather than, "Hey, would you like to become, in addition to a normal homeowner, an energy contractor dealing with your home's infrastructure? You know, would you like to set aside several hours a week to manage this shit?" This is just, "Can we come in and put some stuff in your home that you will not have to mess with or otherwise deal with?" It is a better pitch, but we don't, I don't think, know for certain that customers are going to take it up. What if, like, I win the RFP and I go out and I just can't rustle up the customers?

Like, what if customers in the end, like, are the turd in the punch bowl here?

Pier LaFarge

Well said. And let's unpack that a little bit. That's actually why I think you're blending the aggregator frame and the DCP frame a little bit. In a Distributed Capacity Procurement, the utility would plan how many they need in terms of megawatts of what type and where. And then a deployment services company like Sparkfund, but there are others, will go and talk to customers and sign them up to host the assets. And then once that customer has agreed to host the asset, then it's bid out as a tranche, and the supplier gets a list of places to go build DERs of a certain type, and then a whole set of compliance and safety requirements to make sure that's done right, that the asset is connected correctly, maintained correctly, and commissioned correctly.

So, the deployment services layer happens before the bid, which means that DER companies get the thing they most want, which is to build hundreds of megawatts of equipment at a predictable margin with predictable offtake timing so they can plan labor. They can be more efficient in warehousing, procurement, and supply in software. This goes back one point a little bit, but there are two different types of efficiencies. Where I really think that the market folks get it a little bit wrong is there's a type of efficiency the market delivers in competition and choice. Again, I believe we're preserving most of that value inside this competitive value chain that's locally built.

But also, you have a huge inefficiency when you have small, subscale companies with a warehouse with 1 1/2 FTE and no systems, and when you're buying not at bulk, but changing orders month to month and your distributor is adding cost because of how unpredictable your offtake is. And you have no working capital and you have no internal software and ERP systems that can track margin against actual deployment. Right. There are real inefficiencies that live in the distributed value chain today. And I say that as a DER CEO who has those inefficiencies. So, I'm talking about myself.

Right. It's not like some distant, "Oh, they're inefficient." Right. I'm inefficient because I don't have procurement off-takes that are predictable, scaled, and reliable. Right. So, I'm trying to build this market as much for my own business as for the market itself.

David Roberts

And so, if this model were implemented and given some time to run, you think that we would see consolidation and scaling in the DER industry, like the emergence of probably โ€” rather than what we have today, which is like thousands of barely evolved mammals scurrying around on the floor of the forest โ€” we're going to get some sort of big, probably a handful of big companies. Like, do you think that's an inevitable sort of outcome here?

Pier LaFarge

So, I don't actually. Although, I think this is actually a really fun moment where utilities can add sustained societal value using their franchise. Utilities are also politically sensitive and I think can build and should build value chains that remain competitive and diversified. So, they should actually have requirements mandated by their regulators to the maximum percentage of a given procurement that can be won by a single โ€”

David Roberts

A little anti-monopoly built in.

Pier LaFarge

There is an antitrust function. And by the way, many utility commissioners, if you talk to them, see competitive value chains as part of their regulatory mandate.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting.

Pier LaFarge

And so, do I think there will be consolidation, scaling, and efficiencies inside the value chain of distributed energy resources? Absolutely. Will companies that cannot come up that efficiency curve go away or be bought? Definitely. That is the good news of bringing distributed energy resources to all of a sudden hundreds of gigawatts and hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars of scale in these United States. Yes, for sure. But I don't believe that will result in some oligopolistic, you know, subsidiary sort of issue where you have anti-competitive behaviors precisely because this is a value chain of a regulated social purpose monopoly.

David Roberts

That's interesting. Right now, I feel like in this space, what we have is kind of an unholy hybrid which is not working particularly well for anyone. One way to go is just, in a sense, back to the future, I guess backward. I don't say that in a derogatory way, but back to sort of the model of utilities, like back to utilities being utilities, which is what you're talking about. The other way I think to go is people talk about a pricing system basically where prices become extremely geographically and temporally fine-grained. Right. And so then serve the function of directing investment where it's most needed on the grid.

This is the other. You know, I have a lot of people in my inbox who are big fans of this sort of, you know, second-by-second pricing model which will send all of the same planning signals. You don't go for that, buy that. Why not?

Pier LaFarge

Well, it's not that I don't go for it. I mean, look, in the debate of energy history, one of the great moments was in the early 90s, like when we really began that process of deregulation or semi-deregulation. And you see it alive and well in the UK, for example, in Europe. I think that it's a viable model. It works in ERCOT, it works in many parts of the country. And I think markets provide some efficiencies and also some inefficiencies of price stability and predictable capital. And how much capital has to get paid to participate in building infrastructure?

David Roberts

Well, infrastructure legendarily does not perform well just in open markets. Right? I mean, infrastructure capital is kind of different than market capital in a lot of ways.

Pier LaFarge

You know, honestly, to me, that debate has fought itself to a historical standstill, David, where the inefficiencies of a higher IRR from private equity participants in a more uncertain, more price offtake oriented market has added cost. And at the same time, market efficiencies and competition have taken costs out. And if we were sitting here and ERCOT had like power that cost 2 cents a kilowatt hour, I would say, do not listen to me, do not do distributed capacity procurements, make everything an unregulated market. But we don't. We have a market where for whatever reason, the price of power is actually pretty similar.

And there are big market efficiencies in ERCOT and some really amazing superpowers in terms of resource adequacy and demand response. Like, there are some really amazing pieces that that tribe has invented and then there are some really big problems, and I think they actually cancel each other out. And if you zoom out to the UK for a second, the big difference between the United States and Europe is that in Europe, people pay an amount of money for power that is relevant to their consumer consciousness. It can be a big chunk of their mortgage. And if you were to ask me, "Would you like to take 30% of the cost of your mortgage and get it back so you can buy more stuff and you just do this one simple thing?" I would listen to you.

But in the United States, we have, by and large, succeeded in an infrastructure compact that not only is invisible, like it's out of sight, out of mind, it's so successful, you can stop thinking about it, you can take it for granted. We have an energy economy that's actually, for most people, relatively cheap and at an economy level, very, very cheap. And there are real issues with energy poverty in parts of the country. There are real people who suffer from paying too much in the United States, and that's a real serious problem to fix. But compared to Europe, we pay way less for power.

And building an efficient market is really conditioned โ€” the preconditional question of "Is that efficient market going to work?" is, can you get people to pay any attention to it? So, price signals are not great when people don't want to and don't have to pay attention. And then, you actually get an even worse condition where if it's only the people who are truly enthusiastic that can participate, you end up with a lot of the value of a competitive market being taken by the richest, most educated, most engaged consumers.

David Roberts

Well, I mean, part of that vision would be that the devices are smart and automatically respond to the price signals. Right. I mean, part of the vision of ubiquitous price signals is that they're taken off the plate of the โ€” then you get, I mean, you know, I just talked with Cory Doctor the other day. Then you have a whole new set of worries about lock-in to platforms and platform enshittification.

Pier LaFarge

Absolutely. Imagining a perfect, software-driven, interoperable, competitive, and unregulated market that also happens to work well for consumers and the climate, and doesn't have any sort of issues of high-pressure sales, fraud, or regressive aspects. You can imagine that. But the reality is, climate change is here now. The dragon is sitting on the continent, scraping and clawing and hurting people. And we have an infrastructure compact that actually works, that delivered the first 120 years of the electric utility model, and it has risen to the moment when we needed electricity in the first place, rural electrification, post-war industrial boom, air conditioning.

Now is the next time. This is the moment. 2024 is the next big chapter in US energy history because of manufacturing, because of data centers, generative AI, political competition with China. Getting this right is not just about optimizing some beautiful energy system so that energy nerds can be excited about acronyms. It is about providing support for the US economy. It is about growth, it is about geopolitical security. Putting data centers in Ohio and Kansas, not in Saudi Arabia, matters because they're going to train the drone swarms of the 2040s. This is not just about the price of energy or how efficiently competition delivers lower cost.

David Roberts

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Pier LaFarge

Energy is for something.

David Roberts

One of the things you're talking about here, which is somewhat out of fashion, is kind of the merits of central planning. The idea here is the utility has, as you say, this sort of landscape-level machine. It has the view of the entire machine. It knows where it needs things. But it seems like when you describe that, what comes to mind for me is an old-fashioned vertically integrated utility like you get in the Southeast, like Southern Company or something like that. They are procuring, they're buying, they're owning, they're running, they are truly running the whole thing.

I have a little bit less clear of a vision of how this works in restructured markets. The utility that's going to procure DERs, you're talking about distribution utilities then in wholesale market areas, which seems like a bigger change for them than this would be for like a Southern, a vertically integrated โ€” like Southern Company. I think my guess is you pitch them this model, they're like, "Yeah, that model makes total sense to us. That is literally how we do things." But pitching it to a distribution company in a deregulated market is a little bit of a bigger thing.

And I don't totally understand how it works in that market. So, say a little bit about that.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, let me give you three hot takes in escalating order of interest.

David Roberts

Hotter and hotter. Whatever that pod is with the hot sauces.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, I wish. I would like to do that someday. Hot take number one: a restructured market and a T&D utility. Most of the value of distributed energy resources we're talking about for the grid are batteries. And so, a distribution utility can absolutely procure batteries if they are primarily distribution resources. And it can include that into its distribution capital planning for resource adequacy and grid functioning.

David Roberts

Right. That would just be like the distribution utility viewing batteries as a piece of distribution infrastructure, which they are.

Pier LaFarge

And it's a one-for-one, right? I mean, you either โ€” to do a distribution utility's job, if the planners inside the full, you know, the market, right, whether it's an RTO or a co-op or whatever it is, they say, "Look, we need to double the amount of electrons that go over this network." And they say, "Okay, I need to make this substation not melt. With money and copper. And these transformers are the ones at risk." Okay. Or, so if that's $5 billion, well, I could put a billion dollars of batteries in exactly these places and avoid that $5 billion upgrade.

So, like, that is the job of a distribution utility. So, I think that much of the value of a Distributed Capacity Procurement is contained and totally accessible inside distribution utilities. And by the way, about half of the utilities we're actively engaged with promoting this model and bringing it into their institutional work are distribution utilities.

David Roberts

In wholesale markets.

Pier LaFarge

In wholesale markets, yes. In restructured markets.

David Roberts

This is a slight side thing, but I just... I'm curious about this. Like, just between us, the value of distributed energy, most of that is batteries, right? I feel like rooftop solar used to be sort of like what we put on the tin, you know, sort of like the advertising, the big thing we use as a symbol.

Pier LaFarge

It's like the Wheaties commercial. Just rooftop solar is the Wheaties commercial of DERs. Batteries are like the spinach and broccoli.

David Roberts

In terms of what we want distributed energy to do to help the grid, most of that is what batteries do, right? So, if I'm a utility, and this, to me, is just about deploying distributed energy in such a way as to make the grid operate better, I'm just deploying batteries. Like, why am I messing with rooftop solar at all?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, there. So, this is a side thing, and then I'll get back to my other two hot takes. But it's a really important point. Most of the value to the grid of distributed energy resources in the task of doubling the grid comes in the form of batteries or stored dispatchable electrons, which can include natural gas and diesel. Less from a climate perspective, but that's just, you know, technically that's the case.

David Roberts

Or hydrogen. Don't forget hydrogen.

Pier LaFarge

Or hydrogen. Right. Any stored value of electrons. And so, batteries are the lion's share of the grid value of DERs. However, rooftop solar and ground mount solar, and the bigger the better, particularly if you can get it over 500kW nameplate and even better over a megawatt from a cost per watt basis. But let's say you have a megawatt of rooftop solar and then 5 megawatts of batteries in trailers in an industrial yard. What that solar does is optimize the state of charge of the batteries, and it adds energy value to the capacity value of the batteries.

The batteries are doing most of the work to make sure that no transformer overloads, the substation doesn't need to be upsized, and the distribution system isn't melting. So, the batteries are really doing the lift. But when you run the numbers, it, in many cases, not in all cases, makes sense to put solar on and around batteries to actually make the batteries better from a total grid efficacy standpoint.

David Roberts

Oh, funny. So, you're just boosting the value of the batteries. They're like battery enhancements.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah. So, it's actually the thing you said first. It's just that solar can make batteries even more valuable and, in some cases, at a rate that allows you to spend money on the solar. But that really does depend, and the math doesn't pencil very well unless you're putting a bunch of solar around a bunch of batteries. So, I don't think that applies to residential.

David Roberts

Not to get stuck on this, but it seems to me like if you are doing a wholesale shift from a DER market driven by consumer preference, a DER market driven by consumer preference, I think is going to include a lot of rooftop solar because customers like the idea of it. Right? They like it. It's got good vibes.

Pier LaFarge

The vibes are good.

David Roberts

And that's what you need also for personal resilience and backup. But a utility-led DER market, it seems to me, is going to involve a lot less rooftop solar and a lot more batteries. Is that fair?

Pier LaFarge

It is. And again, going back to your opening premise, which I really like and I think actually reflects my views on this, is, you know, chapter one was about consumer-driven adoption of renewable energy and we got the cost down, we proved it could work, we built an industry around it and we should be damn proud. Chapter two is about thinking from an infrastructure-first mindset about utility-led deployment in the way that adds the most value to the grid and deploys distributed energy resources at deca gigawatt scale all over the United States to fundamentally support a faster, cheaper build out of the US electric grid downstream of manufacturing, data centers, geopolitical competition, and generative AI.

David Roberts

You might have heard the podcast I did with Lorenzo Kristov, who's very big on distributed energy. This is a point that he made to me. He makes it all the time, which really flipped my lid. Now, I make it all the time and pretend it's my own. It's just that from a societal perspective, from a grid perspective, it makes no sense to size a solar and battery system on a rooftop to the energy consumption of the building. That makes sense from the building owner's point of view, but from a societal point of view, from a grid point of view, we just want to maximize how much the building can hold.

Right. Like, we want to maximize the amount of distributed energy possible for that building, regardless of the building's individual consumption.

Pier LaFarge

And David, people who are open to that point, it really starts to create a kind of division or disconnect inside this movement. More and more, the way I hear aspects of, particularly the residential solar industry, advocating for its product is a narrow defense of a business model they've gotten used to and a consumer relationship and marketing competitive advantage that they believe helps their particular P&Ls, not open, honest arguments about what is the best solution for the climate, the grid, or society.

David Roberts

Yeah, and maybe they know on some level that a utility-led DER push would be mostly batteries. I mean, maybe that's hovering in the background here. I mean, maybe it is the case that we're deploying more rooftop solar than is rational on a kind of globally assessed level. I know people hate hearing that and I'm going to get a lot of angry emails for even saying it, but โ€”

Pier LaFarge

I don't think it's the batteries. I think that a lot of solar companies are really well-suited from a human capital and resource systems and engineering and like business processes, infrastructure procurement, they're really well-suited to deploy a ton of batteries. Right. And you know, look at Sunrun. They're making a ton of progress. They're closer and closer to becoming and talking about themselves as a battery-led grid services company.

David Roberts

No, that's Mary Powell, the CEO said that to me flat out "We are a battery-led company."

Pier LaFarge

Now, big shout out to Mary Powell and a bunch of other folks there, Chris Roucher. Right. Who are really driving that shift and I think they're right. I don't think that the aversion is about batteries versus solar. I think that actually the more complex sticking point as you think about the difference between an industrial incentive versus a climate incentive or imperative is actually about consumer financing. What rooftop solar has made billions in is long-dated high IRR โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah.

Pier LaFarge

financialized contracts with escalators. And the industry that really spends the money on advocacy in the policy space in solar, I think, is primarily backed by the financing piece of that industry. It is not the people who build solar, who design it, engineer it, who put it in a warehouse and go out and actually build it. The companies who know how to do that and make money doing it are not only going to be fine, they're going to be much, much bigger companies with more wealth created and a huge solution contribution to the climate problem and to the US grid and to prosperity, economic development, etc.

David Roberts

But to touch on the financing, this would be from the consumer's point of view. If the utility comes to me and does all this for me, part of the advantage for me as a consumer is that I'm not signing or even particularly thinking about some novel new financing something. This is just going to show up on my bill, right? It's just going to be integrated into my electric bill in such a way that I don't have to think about it?

Pier LaFarge

Yes, that's right, and as a credit. I mean, what I love about this idea is, instead of taking debt to get energy ownership, what you get is a 20-year risk-free annuity paid by the utility because you're participating in the grid. Right. By the way, Sparkfund's corporate mission is to make buildings a valuable extension of the US electric grid. That is actually our formal mission. And fundamentally, the reason we believe that's a good idea is because it actually lets building owners participate in the flow of value of being a valuable extension of the grid.

David Roberts

Yes, and this is like, "Can we put a device on your building that will basically sit there and print money for you?" You don't have to maintain it, you don't have to operate it, you don't have to finance it, it's just going to sit there and make money for you.

Pier LaFarge

You don't need a 700 FICO score. There's no green lining, there's no first cost issue, there's no down payment issue. And by the way, when one person, particularly an economically vulnerable person, takes out debt and owns a system for 20 years, that's just one system. If that thing breaks or has out-of-warranty issues or the companies go bankrupt that sold it to them, that person can lose a lot of money. So, infrastructure models that own hundreds of thousands or millions of systems provide value on average, but they can share that value with no risk to the consumers who just want to pick their kids up from school and do whatever it is that they do for a living.

That's the difference between infrastructure thinking and consumer adoption thinking that relies on credit-based, financialized models.

David Roberts

So, I interrupted your hot takes. So, I have, as I told you, a kajillion questions and they just keep popping up. So, the first hot take is distribution companies, distribution utilities in wholesale market areas are going to be willing to deploy a lot of batteries purely for the health of their distribution networks.

Pier LaFarge

Yes, and can incorporate that normally inside distribution capital planning processes, inside their existing regulatory authority. In some restructured markets, there's more question and political heat around "Are batteries distribution assets?" In some markets, that's easier; in some, it's a little harder. I believe in most cases it's plausible. Second hot take: By 2050, every power market in the United States will be an IOU again.

David Roberts

Really?

Pier LaFarge

Because โ€” now, I want a caveat. I don't.

David Roberts

So, you โ€” hang on. So, that means no more munis, no more publicly owned utilities, no more. What are you saying?

Pier LaFarge

I'll clarify my hot take. And that was my spiciest one. I jumped right to the end. If by 2050 every power market in the United States is an IOU, what I mean by that is no municipals and co-ops can exist in their really, really valuable local context. Right. Having citizens be part of a power system, having members be part of a cooperative economic model, I think, is really good economic code that does and has existed where the grid either gets thinner in rural areas or very, very community-specific in municipalities. So, I think that's good code.

It's been part of this energy system since the beginning and I think that's actually a separate part of the energy analysis. What I'm talking about are markets that were run as IOUs and then were restructured starting in the 90s to break apart transmission, distribution and generation.

David Roberts

Oh, you think we're going to go back?

Pier LaFarge

I think we're going to go back.

David Roberts

We're going to re-restructure?

Pier LaFarge

I think we're going to re-restructure.

David Roberts

Interesting. That has not happened anywhere yet though, right? We have not seen that yet a single time.

Pier LaFarge

No, it hasn't. Which is why it's my spiciest take.

David Roberts

But we also haven't seen a single new move to a wholesale market in a while either. We're sort of frozen right now.

Pier LaFarge

Right. And look, going back to your point about Southern Company, any IOU that remembers what a utility is for, which is providing the lowest cost, most reliable, safe power to provide economic development and shared prosperity, that is a foundational infrastructure model. That is a regulated monopoly franchise that uses Wall Street's money for like 3.5% or 4% dividends to build a landscape-scale machine that helps the whole economy exist. And that model, that regulatory compact, is regulated for social purpose and can price the full marginal value. This is the key point. An IOU can price the full marginal value and marginal cost of transmission, distribution, and generation as if it was one system.

And you know what? When the grid isn't growing and you want to optimize it and convince it to uptake new technology, breaking those apart creates more space for optimization. But when you need to double the grid for critical infrastructure development upstream of economic development, geopolitical competition, when it's time to build manufacturing facilities and data centers and compete geopolitically, all of a sudden you want that infrastructure scheme to have transmission, distribution, and generation as part of its same planning system.

David Roberts

Interesting. This is almost spicier than your central take care. I mean, or maybe they're connected. You know, maybe these two takes go together. Like if you're right that a utility-led DER model is the way to go because of utilities' advantages in central planning and financing, the logic of that suggests de-restructuring, right? The logic of that suggests going back to vertical โ€”

Pier LaFarge

There you go, you got it. I think de-restructuring is definitely the worst way to say that. And that's what I'm going to say for the rest of โ€” I'm going to credit you.

David Roberts

Hang on, I'll come up with an acronym for de-restructuring. That's what we do.

Pier LaFarge

De-restructuring, I would like to formally submit my vote for that.

David Roberts

So, going back to Southern Companies everywhere, this is of course Southern Companies are thought of as kind of the bรชte noires of clean energy right now, currently. So, one of the frequent themes here on Volts is the regulatory structure under which these utilities operate. They get a guaranteed rate of return on their spending. What you're suggesting is just fold DERs into that on that same model. But one of the critiques of that model is that it incentivizes utilities to overspend, basically to not seek the lowest cost, but in fact to seek the maximum amount of money they can get past their regulators.

Why wouldn't that same dynamic apply here?

Pier LaFarge

Well, when you look at the map of IOUs versus restructured states, you don't see a map that makes the IOUs look like they have more expensive power. And I would say you see the opposite map, which is that by having the ability to plan and price transmission, distribution, generation, and have regulators that know what a utility is for, which is making power cheaper, reliable, and safe so that you can have an economy. The last 20 years of running that experiment, comparing IOUs to restructured markets, shows quite the opposite effect, which is that IOUs on average have cheaper power and more industrial growth and more economic growth in their states, and restructured states have higher cost power and less economic growth on average. I'm pretty sure that's true.

It would be good for someone in your many, many bright people listening to fact-check me on that.

David Roberts

But it's not so much structured versus restructured, it's the ownership model. Like, if the point of the utility is to make profit for investors and the way it makes profit is by spending money, it will want to spend as much money as possible, even if it's in an old-fashioned monopoly market.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah. Something that's always confused me about this debate, David, is that it's not like in a restructured market where you have private equity-backed IPPs (Independent Power Producers), who are building power plants. Like, they don't want to spend more money and make more money, and their cost of capital is way higher than the utilities because it's not guaranteed. And they take all sorts of contractual risks that mean they have to charge much higher IRRs that start at 9% and end in the high teens to the return of the investor. And the utility takes hundreds of billions of dollars of Wall Street's money and offers a 3 to 4% dividend.

That's the net money that it costs to build the grid. A 9% regulated return or a 10% or 12% regulated return is what you bake into rates to recover the cost of an electron. And then you take all the operating costs of the utility out and that's the profit that goes to shareholders; it's the net amount. So, people often talk about the gross regulated return as if that's the like there was a guy who wrote an article recently, they called it a "gluttonous return." Right? A 9% gluttonous return. Well, that's a 9% gross return that is then tariffed by all the operating costs of running a landscape-scale grid that's regulated.

And then its investors, the people who actually keep the profit in that utility's case, get like a 3.2% dividend.

David Roberts

But then, you also have an incentive to minimize operational costs. Right. Which is another critique of utilities is that they don't do the upkeep, they don't trim the trees, they are incentivized to minimize spending on which they don't get that return. That's part of the critique.

Pier LaFarge

Right. I mean, again, another confusion. Would a private system be incentivized to maximize its OpEx that comes out of the same gross margin? So, what if the gross margin is 18%, coming down to a net acceptable return of 9 or 12? Everyone optimizes operating costs. Everyone. I mean, I think we've forgotten what we're talking about. Like, we framed utilities as if they're these big evil private corporations and private equity-backed for-profit solar companies, DERs, VPP aggregators, and IPPs are like some noble climate purpose group of knights that are, you know, the Hayekian hooves galloping towards the beautiful future.

I mean, give me a break, right? You know, regulated public purpose monopolies who are chartered in the public benefit is the most successful balance of private capital and public purpose in history. It's the only operating example of socialized infrastructure in the heart of the largest economy in the world. And we've used that model again and again at critical junctures in energy and economic history, which are often the same thing, to animate that growth. Right. And to animate prosperity.

David Roberts

This is so funny because I know, I mean, I know from having listened to some of your talks and stuff now that you personally are a big markets guy, love markets, probably in the Hayekian brigades yourself, but it's kind of funny, electricity makes socialists out of all of us.

Pier LaFarge

It does. And the political coincidence. I am, broadly speaking, a grumpy conservative, not socially, but economically conservative, who grew up partly in Appalachia, partly in the South. I don't have an intuitive connection to the concepts of central planning or, you know, institutional economics. Those were dirty words for me too, right? I too then went off and became a coastal elite educated โ€” I'm a Middlebury graduate, for God's sake. I was at PowerShift. I told you that, right? No one at Power Shift in 2007 was like cheering central planning. And the reality is that although this was not in any way my intuitive bias, I just think I had the luck of starting this company way too young.

I started this company at 24, and I didn't know anything about this system. So, I could just ask sort of some first principles, ignorant questions about it, and not get too wrapped up in the energy markets and kind of technocratic piece of this. And I was just asking these primarily from a climate perspective because I really genuinely give a shit that we maintain a stable climate that gives us the ability to have an economy that keeps people healthy, rich, and safe. Like, that's the point of climate change to me is to, like, have a stable environment, to run an economy to keep people healthy, rich, and safe.

"And that's why I'm in this movement, that's why I'm sitting here. But at the same time, I asked myself, 'Well, utilities have been keeping the lights on just about 100% of the time for like 3% of the economy's money. And we get the whole rest of the economy downstream with that power.'"

David Roberts

What a payback, right? What a payback for that investment.

Pier LaFarge

And then someone says, "Well, we should spend all this time building acronyms and policy innovation and tweaking this and tweaking that. It's going to do two things. It's going to make the energy economy in your state much more efficient because of markets. Oh, also it's going to make the power twice as expensive and all the industrial jobs leave, but whatever. And it'll make it cleaner." And look, I care about the cleaner, but I just think that the thing we forgot was that utilities are surprisingly good at their job. And in fact, they're so good at their job that we've taken it as a precondition.

We've taken it for granted. And we're at a moment in US history, I think, in a lot of ways, where we've really got to check some of our underlying assumptions about this stuff and dig deep into what it's going to take to build an economy that actually works for people and creates value and sustains it in the United States.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's funny, we are sort of like, with all the acronyms and the market tweaks and everything, kind of attempting to create a system that mimics what a smart central planner would do, because we've given up on our smart central planners, basically. Right. Like a lot of this is just like utilities have been in a hostile relationship with our movement for so long that we've, I think, a lot of us have just sort of given up on the idea that they could do their jobs. And this is, as you say, their jobs.

Pier LaFarge

The historic antagonism between the solar industry and utilities is about habit and forgetting. And it is now time for curiosity, for empathy, and for remembering what these systems are for and how they create value.

David Roberts

On that note, one of my big questions here is, would PUCs, like, say, a utility got religion on this, bought it, wanted to go do it? Does it need special permission from its PUCs? In other words, is this a change in operation that requires some regulatory change, or is this something that, in your view, a utility could just go do?

Pier LaFarge

It's a very good question. And I think it's something they can put into their normal infrastructure planning process, but that then requires review and approval by a commission for confirming that it is in fact in the public interest, lowest cost, most reliable. So, I think that you can drop a Distributed Capacity Procurement right into an IRP or a distribution capital plant. You could pick up this tool tomorrow or whenever your next IRP cycle is and go to your regulator and say, "We are a utility based on the demands of society and needed load growth to support our charter in this state.

We are going to add, you know, hundreds of megawatts of batteries, distributed solar gensets, etc., microgrids into that plan. And we are going to submit it to the regulator and ask them to approve us talking to our customers about hosting utility-owned, utility-dispatched assets for the benefit of growing the grid faster, cheaper, and more reliably."

David Roberts

And then, PUCs could just look at that and say, "Okay." You don't need enabling legislation or anything like that?

Pier LaFarge

You do not. The best thing about this idea is that it's not innovative at all. You called it out, clearly. And I say that in every, I mean every, time I'm in a room with regulators.

David Roberts

I mean, you're talking about unwinding a lot of what we've called innovation in this space for several decades.

Pier LaFarge

And I don't think much of it has worked. I mean, that's the sad reality. I don't think much of it's worked. I think the track record is bad. And we've created new ideas, we brought on some new technologies, we've created fragile room for innovation. And don't get me wrong, you know, in chapter one, I am proud, I've just said this at the beginning and I'll say it again. I am proud of the work that our industry has done on behalf of the climate, on behalf of clean energy innovation, from VPPs to the technology of distributed resources themselves.

We proved its value. We put it out there, we built businesses, and we brought the cost down. And now history is here, industrial history is back. We are going to double the grid and we should use the same institutions. We should see this as a graduation, not a fight. Right? We have proven that this stuff has value at grid scale. Every VPP conference, every conference you go to says, "Well, DERs have all this incredible value to the grid." Good. Put it into the planning and make it part of the grid.

David Roberts

Right? Well, when I think about interacting with regulators, I mean, from a certain perspective, you could say one of the benefits of this market being extra outside utilities, being just privately run, is that you could do a lot of stuff that, at least in the early days, was not particularly economic, that you wouldn't spend public money on. Right. Like there's a lot of private decisions that were not strictly rational, especially from a sort of grid level point of view. So, if then you're going to do this via utilities, then you're putting a different lens on.

Then, you are spending ratepayer money and you are obligated to do it in a way that is least cost. You are obligated not to make decisions that are frivolous or aesthetic, et cetera, et cetera. Which I'm winding my way around to a point here, which is if I'm going to a regulator and I'm going to install DERs, it seems to me like the lowest cost DER to get the benefits of DERs is a big battery sitting next to your substation, right on your distribution network like that. If you have a big battery sitting next to your substation, you are getting almost all the benefits that you get from distributed energy.

You get the transmission, you get the avoided transmission, distribution, et cetera, et cetera. Whereas, breaking that battery up into a bunch of small batteries in buildings... Or, you could install a 50-megawatt solar field next to your big battery next to your substation, you know, on the distribution side โ€” so it'd still be distributed, but chunky, big distributed โ€” that seems to me the lowest cost. Whereas, breaking those up and putting them and spreading them out over a thousand different buildings seems to be introducing a bunch of extra cost for no extra benefit to the grid. So, if I'm a utility and I have to convince a regulator that I'm doing the lowest cost work, it still doesn't seem like that rooftop solar panels and building-scale batteries are the lowest cost way to do DERs.

Does that make sense?

Pier LaFarge

It does. Although, I think there are a couple of extra steps that actually push the outcome back towards building scale. And those are particularly in vertically integrated โ€” I'll tie in a couple of our previous discussions. If you are fully integrated, vertically integrated, and chartered in your regulatory process to think about transmission, distribution, and generation, you end up with what I would call more like "highest value, most reliable," not just lowest cost. And that means you can see more of the picture. For example, if you have the ability to build solar and batteries and start that by offsetting a CT, a peaker plant, that's one piece of the value.

Next, there's congestion on the grid, which means you can move electrons more efficiently and get them to the right places at the right times. And then there's the avoided distribution cost, and then there's the avoided transmission impact, say, building new lines into a city.

David Roberts

But don't you get all that with a solar field and a big battery next to a substation? You get all that?

Pier LaFarge

No, I'll come back to that. So, I think that you get a lot of it. But there are a couple of really important constraints and considerations. One, many substations just don't have the space to put that many batteries, let alone the solar field.

David Roberts

So, it is land, it's available land. I mean, that's one thing, right?

Pier LaFarge

When you run the math of that solution, don't get me wrong, I think utilities can and will do a lot of what I call medium-format distributed.

David Roberts

Yeah, nobody's got a great term for that middle tier of DERs.

Pier LaFarge

I'm an old photography nerd, so I just call it medium format. Medium format DERs. And so, fundamentally, I think that utilities will do a bunch of that. But when you actually look at the maps of their substations and where the constraints are the highest, they often tend to be in the highest density, most space-constrained areas. And there are companies, by the way, you know, like NineDot Energy in New York, that are doing exactly this with highly congested substations. And their biggest focus is on buying land in the right places in New York City.

But it's a whole company's worth of innovation to find that space.

David Roberts

Right, right, right. This is another point that Lorenzo makes a lot, which is just that buildings are the available land.

Pier LaFarge

Buildings are the land.

David Roberts

It's helpful to look at them as available land and available grid connections. Right. Which is another precious, scarce resource.

Pier LaFarge

Particularly, without having to modify the connections. And what's funny is that this is โ€” so there are two more points I think will really drive this home. One, when you put 50 megawatts of solar and batteries right at a substation, you get some of the value, which is the smart sponge value of being able to absorb intermittency. But when you want to inject it back, it's too much energy in one place and you have to upgrade the substation just to make it go the other way.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting.

Pier LaFarge

So, you end up with the same problem just later, like an hour later or in the morning. And so too much concentration of any one point source injection of electrons into that system has basically โ€” not exactly, and this is like, you know, caveat, there are probably a bunch of really smart power quality and power engineers and system engineers here being like, "This guy has no idea what he's talking about." I would just like to caveat: I don't know what I'm talking about, but I've talked to a bunch of you. So, this is downstream of that.

But, fundamentally, that solution does add value, but it also creates problems past a certain point. So one, you don't have the space. Two, round trip efficiencies and backfilling, like injecting power back into the grid, start to chip away and actually add infrastructure upgrade back in. Third, and this is maybe the most important, a really big part of the dollar spend that's coming on upgrading the distribution center system โ€” yeah, substations are the big flashy spend for sure. But you know what else is everywhere? It's transformers.

David Roberts

Right. And they're notoriously supply chain effed.

Pier LaFarge

They're so supply chain constrained, they are so expensive. And if we double the grid, the number of utilities at once, that would have to replace and upgrade. Just huge, thousands and thousands. And then the dispatch and the trucks and the permitting, and that's turning traffic off a street. I mean, you're just talking about billions of dollars and huge amounts of time and permitting, you know, and then we haven't even talked about, then there's feeders and then, you know, there's so many other pieces of the grid. Right. But my point is not that putting batteries in buildings is like the move compared to putting them somewhere else.

When I say, "Make buildings part of the US electric grid," I'm saying, "Put batteries absolutely freaking everywhere, up and down the chain to whatever extent there is available space." And when you run out of land and utility and utilities, scale right away as you knock on doors and ask people, "Hello, ma'am, today is a Tuesday. Would you agree to host a battery?"

David Roberts

Yeah, so just to return briefly to the customer experience, you knock on my door. Your pitch is, "We want to install X, Y, and Z. The sum total of your interaction with X, Y, and Z is going to be that you're going to save a little money." That's literally like, "We'll come in, take a couple of days, install it, get out, and then your life will go on otherwise unmolested."

Pier LaFarge

That's right. You won't even save money. We'll just pay you. Like, you show up and you pull on people's, I think, really core instincts. You say two things. One, "By being part of the solution, we're inviting you to do something that's good for you and your family, good for your neighbors, good for your community, good for the grid. So, do great things together. Be part of the solution."

David Roberts

Yeah.

Pier LaFarge

And mostly, I think when you give people that opportunity, they like it. And two, "Hey, for that value that you, of your own free will, are creating for yourself, your community, and the grid will pay you for it."

David Roberts

But in most cases, that payment will show up as a reduction of my electricity bill.

Pier LaFarge

Oh sure.

David Roberts

I mean, it'll be on the bill in most cases.

Pier LaFarge

On bill, yes. I mean, I just think of it as like, if you pay 100 bucks a month for energy, you're still going to pay 100 bucks for energy, but we might pay you 30, 40, or 50 bucks to have a thing in your house.

David Roberts

Right.

Pier LaFarge

And also, by the way, you said this earlier, you know, it makes no sense to size batteries to the needs of the house unless you're selling it to someone. And if you make a really big battery in like โ€” so let's say a small business that's got a big cement yard and a pretty good power hookup that's not being used because it used to be a bigger store or a more industrial area. Think of how many places in the United States that exists. Yeah, go drag a megawatt battery and you can give that small business owner enough money to buy their building from their landowner in 10 years.

Right. We're talking about participating in the wealth of the energy transition in a way that has nothing to do with credit, nothing to do with maintenance, nothing to do with understanding or how much time you have to sign up for something. This is exactly the way that gas companies built wealth and power by putting gas wells in farmers' land. It's the same way that the clean energy industry has built wealth and power all over the United States by putting solar panels and wind turbines in fields. This is bringing that model of space leasing for needed energy equipment as part of the energy transition into the city and into towns.

David Roberts

Investor-owned utilities are going to want to get a healthy rate of return. Is there not some question about whether these things are profitable enough to generate that rate of return for them? In other words, are utilities going to want to do this? Is the rate of return that they'll be able to get on this stuff enough to pull them in?

Pier LaFarge

They don't think like that. Right? Because it's a guaranteed, it's a regulated rate of return. So, they could like rate base a potato and earn 9% on it as long as their regulator deems that said potato is fully in public purpose and is the lowest cost, most reliable for shared prosperity. You've got yourself an earning.

Well, let's talk about planning, because we were going to get back to planning. So, if I'm a utility with a multi-state territory, right now I'm planning and I'm planning, I'm doing my IRP, I'm planning how to meet demand, basically. My planning involves comparatively big chunks, big chunks, a big transmission line, a big power plant, a computationally manageable number of entities that I'm trying to make work together. We're talking now about going from dozens of big chunks to thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of highly distributed devices all operating in concert. That just seems to me in terms of planning, combinatorially unworkable.

David Roberts

It seems like, and this is where Lorenzo's logic goes, it seems like what you'd want if you were going to do this model is a local utility, a DSO, what people call a DSO (Distribution System Operator) that then manages all this complexity at the distribution level and then just sort of presents to the transmission level as a single entity, basically as like a giant VPP I guess you'd call it, or whatever. A) Do you think it's possible now for today's utilities to do planning involving this level of complexity? In other words, are they ready to plan for all this stuff?

And do you have any thoughts about DSOs, about reforms trying to move control, utility control, closer to the local level?

Pier LaFarge

I do. I'll say a couple of things just as context. One, I constitutionally and politically believe that in many cases, moving control down to local levels is a critical piece of the next 50 years of American life. Right? Like that's in general something that I'm really passionate about and I think is important. The complexity in this case, though, is that central planning works best at system scale, not fragmented scale. And I actually don't think that planning for this many devices is that hard. Utilities need to know which feeders have stress and congestion. They need to know how much they're planning to upgrade substations and when.

They need to know which transformers are at risk of overload. But they actually mostly know those things. And then you need to spend a couple million dollars on software and services to help with companies that come in and do distribution system impact modeling. And there's software, right, that just can give you a bunch of these answers. Companies like Kevala, Recurve, ThinkLabs AI, and a bunch of other emerging ones โ€” Innowatts. And so you can do the planning, you can do the modeling, and you can estimate the impact of DERs, just like you can a power plant.

You just say, "Hey, if you had 800 megawatts on your system here, here, and here. Here's how that would change your capital planning and your upgrade timing, and which feeders would no longer need to overload or be at risk of overload." So, planning, I think, is pretty straightforward. Operating and dispatching โ€” the hardest part of what I'm proposing is actually the fact that the DERs go both directions. Right. They can both absorb power and inject power.

David Roberts

Yes, much more complex.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, bidirectionality is the sort of scaling factor complexity that you're describing in the operations and dispatch and coordination side. But I don't think it is on the planning side. So, I agree with your point, but not where it sort of hits. Right, the planning is doable and the decision making on deployment is doable. And it also, at scale, has a pretty good, you know, again the regulatory compact says do this also because remember it's lowest cost, most reliable. So, also by putting batteries on buildings, you're making the grid more reliable and that's actually part of the charter and that doesn't need to be cheaper.

Like, regulators are allowed to say, "Spend more money to keep more people safe, happy, and prosperous because it's a society, right. It's the economy, stupid." So, that reliability term is actually something that people undervalue. And again, this is going back a couple of points too, but that's where I think the market people miss out on why central planning and infrastructure thinking matters. Because regulators care about the emergent value of keeping people healthy, safe, and prosperous.

David Roberts

Which does not appear in markets. Basically, it's not a signal in markets.

Pier LaFarge

No. And so, asking to create real-time, minute-to-minute, feeder by feeder pricing that everyone could participate in. In a private equity-fueled, Wall Street-traded cacophony of software, sending AI signals to trade energy would externalize the crackers out of human flourishing and reliability and safety. So, I've never understood why people are so stoked and so many climate-oriented people who I also understand are broadly interested in human flourishing, which is why they should be in my view in the climate movement. It's like, you know, why that has never tracked is like putting a Wall Street trading desk inside the real-time decisions around how the energy system โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah, and the thing is, there's no one who's willing to follow that market logic all the way. Right? Like even in a super market-y system like Texas. Right? The theory of the market is that when power becomes scarce, prices rise and sometimes, per force, the logic of that is that sometimes they're going to rise super, super high. And like, consumers are going to friggin' hate that. But that's how it's supposed to work. But no one will actually let that process play out. But in practice, everybody comes in with extra market mechanisms when reliability or price looks to be under threat.

So, like everybody, in their heart of hearts, wants some central planning here.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, because energy is for people, energy is for society. That's what we're doing here, right? It is not an optimization desk exercise. It is a really, unironically, critical task to keep the lights on and keep power flowing. And by the way, many of the people, including me, who are debating this and have the opportunity to engage in these systems are not that vulnerable to these outcomes. And I've got backup power and if my power went off, I'd be fine. And if my power cost went up, I'd be fine. But there are people in the society who really, really, really, really, really care whether or not power goes off and their oxygen machine stops working or they have to, you know, find a new way to get to a place they need to go to work.

Right. There are real consequences for real people.

David Roberts

It's a little bit like the health care argument, right? Like, the market logic in health care is people who can't pay die. And it's the same thing. Like, we say we want markets in health care, but we're not willing to let that happen. So, we end up with these unholy hybrid systems. Right, the worst of both worlds. And it's kind of what we have in electricity is like the worst of both worlds right now. So, there's no grid logic for there being multiple VPPs in a single distribution area. Like, the logic of aggregation is such that it just makes sense for everything in a distribution area to be a single entity, right?

To act as a single VPP. So, this vision would be utilities basically operating their territories as single, giant VPPs.

Pier LaFarge

Utilities should just be utilities, and utilities operate power plants all the time. It is not easy. Even though the math is a little more fragmented, they use sophisticated software, economic models, and market interactions like submarkets and bidding conditions. If you go to a trading desk, both in an unregulated market or even in an IOU, you are seeing really sophisticated, really robust, technologically driven, and economically anchored management of a system either for private profit or for public purpose. I believe that an IOU or a distribution utility who deploys hundreds of megawatts or gigawatts of DERs can and will connect them to a DERMS and manage them.

And look, maybe there'll be sub-DERMS, there could be local aggregators. I have no problem if the DSO exists or if they, you know, smaller VPP aggregator bids capacity and I think there's a really great role for that on some of these kind of, you know, some of the DERs that sit at the edge of grid value and private value. Right, there's some, you know, connected assets, thermostats. So companies like Renew Home, you know, advocates like Clean Energy Works like they're all these folks doing great work โ€” Uplight โ€” like great work on how do you connect assets.

We've got another great company in V2G. Right. How do you find assets that people want? Thermostats, cars. Right. And how do you create energy efficiency savings value to the consumer and then have that person get part of the value from participating in the grid? That just means that you can bid a bunch of water heaters or thermostats or cars part of their time. You can bid them in as a really cheap dollar per megawatt-hour supply contract. I think that's the future of that category. And by the way, I think that fits elegantly under the umbrella term of the distributed capacity procurement.

And you know, fundamentally, distributed capacity is buying the things the grid needs where it needs them most to be safe and durable. Right. No overloads, no risk of melting, like putting the batteries everywhere they're needed. Great. That gives you the confidence that your system is safe. And then after that, the role of distributed capacity is just the cheapest megawatt hour supply you can possibly buy, even if it's probabilistically accredited.

David Roberts

And the logic here, like if we're serious that this is so much cheaper than building utility-scale power plants because of T&D costs, right โ€” so you have to add the T&D cost to the central power plants and if you add those two together they're going to be more expensive than this โ€” it sort of makes sense that this is going to be insofar as VPPs are competing in kind of wholesale, they're going to be the first dispatched I guess is what I'm trying to get around to. The logic of this is this is always going to be on the top of the dispatch order, is it not?

It's almost always going to be the cheapest thing to do first.

Pier LaFarge

I think that's right. And by the way, a lot of IOUs, including Southern Company, have come out with public, regulatorily anchored graphs that say that the spear tip of their future grid is dispatchable DERs.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Pier LaFarge

So, a lot of IOUs actually have been saying this for a while.

David Roberts

Southern?

Pier LaFarge

Absolutely. Southern Company absolutely looks at their grid as starting with those least-cost dispatchable assets.

David Roberts

You know, when I threw this out on Bluesky, a lot of people were just like, "No utility is going to want to mess with this. Why would they want to do this?" So, what are some examples? Like, this is mostly in the future, but some have dipped their toes in. So, talk a little bit about utilities that are starting to actually do something like this.

Pier LaFarge

David, my challenge to energy Twitter or whatever the Bluesky thing is now, you've been ignoring IOUs for way too long. And that's a mix of habit and forgetting. It's an antagonism that we've just got to take a breath and approach with more curiosity because we're in the same fight. And utilities are the societal institution we've invented to deliver most of the electrons in society 100% of the time.

David Roberts

Yeah, and it's kind of funny that we're ready to abandon them, even though in every state we literally have PUCs whose job it is to tell them what to do. Like, we could not have a more direct mechanism of control over these things. And yet, we're sort of throwing our hands up and like, "Oh, they're useless." So, it's a little crazy.

Pier LaFarge

We're on Twitter, yelling at them rather than in regulatory commission hearings and bringing resources and staff. If you're an energy advocate and a climate advocate out there, go work for a PUC, go be a staff member. Go do public service. Go do the math. Go show up and listen to people from community justice organizations that represent workers and communities who talk about how the grid matters to them in the real world. Go do that work. Be part of how our society does this work day in, day out. It is tireless, it is detailed, it is thankless.

And there is a sweetness inside the American utility industry that most people do not expect. I mean it.

David Roberts

I've never heard them described as sweet before. That's a new one.

Pier LaFarge

But they are chartered. I mean, just to talk about this directly, when you give a monopoly, a charter in society, right? And the utility charter is lowest cost, most reliable to support economic development in a territory safely. That's it. And if you give that monopoly normative power to change its charter, you have created a very dangerous thing indeed. You will get Eastern Europe block countries, you will get Venezuela. Right. Monopolies that can renovate their own charters become violent. The US electric utility has never been able, in most states, and least of all in states that still have poorer economies, a bigger percentage of their economy is industrial or manufacturing.

Right? So, the Southeast, the Midwest, the Mountain West, those economies did not feel that they had the money to spend or the room to spare in their growth journeys to mess with that charter. Our richest states, California, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, did feel that they had excess money so that they could add climate change and clean energy into that charter. And in a lot of ways, I'm glad they did because they brought the cost down. That was a big part of the success of chapter one. They made a market in a grid that wasn't growing. But it cost people money, it shifted costs, and it made some people more vulnerable to energy poverty, but it also helped us in the fight against climate change.

So, history is long, it's complicated, and there are trade-offs. So, I think that we'll look back at that history in terms of climate change very positively. But, I think what will surprise a lot of your listeners is that for the next 20 years, it's going to be IOUs in red states that drive clean energy and DERs to grid scale.

David Roberts

It would just be hilarious for my career if, like Southern Company, emerged as the hero. As the hero after all this.

Pier LaFarge

I would bet on Xcel, Southern, and Duke as three of the ones that will surprise you. And Southern Company, in its last IRP, filed and received permission for a 250-megawatt DER program.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Pier LaFarge

They have largely this logic of avoiding peaker plants and providing grid capacity. They have been publicly ordered by their commission to bring a solar and storage program forward in this next. Finally, Xcel Minnesota on August 9th filed a distributed capacity procurement comment talking about 400 megawatts to 1,000 megawatts of battery and solar in Minnesota, exactly for this purpose. You can go look at the filing, it's on the Minnesota PUC docket. That distributed capacity procurement concept was included in a draft settlement submitted to that PUC on October 3rd with a tariff filing due in October of 2025.

So, you know, Jigar Shah, Ryan Long, the president of Minnesota Xcel, and I did a panel at RE+ on that. Look at what folks like Lon Huber are doing in Duke territory in terms of new tariffs that can provide clean energy offtake to hyperscalers to support data center growth, their paired power program, their time to save. There are tariffs and regulatory innovations inside the heart of traditional, charter-constrained, public purpose monopoly utilities that I think are starting a drumbeat that is going to define the next 50 years, or at least the next 20 or 30, because things change pretty darn fast of how we meet this moment of manufacturing growth and data centers.

David Roberts

Let's give a little shout out to Green Mountain, too. I feel like they were early.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, I mean, absolutely, I should have mentioned them.

David Roberts

Green Mountain is in Vermont, and they're putting batteries in homes and then managing those batteries. They're doing basically what you're talking about, right?

Pier LaFarge

Absolutely. And Green Mountain Power is often one of my examples. By the way, they had a "bring your own device" program that had been running for years and was small and slow to deploy, but still there. They took the cap off their utility-owned, "Hey, would you host this?" program, and in like a year, it's now 10 times the size of the other program.

David Roberts

And that's purely behavioral? That's just purely like โ€”

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, same program. They are just knocking on the same door saying, "Do you want to host an asset? Well, here it is." And by the way, the way they paid for that was by taking billions of transmission out of their plan, not having to build transmission over mountains and forests because it's hard and expensive. And you want to go talk to the Green Mountain State Forest about permitting transmission? Like, you know, see you in the 2050s.

David Roberts

But the reason these traditionally maligned utilities like Duke and Southern Company are going to do this, just to sum this up, is not that climate activists finally got to them. It is simply that a bunch of data centers want to site in their territory. They just don't have enough power to power the data centers. And the fastest way to get more power is to draw on DERs. Is that fair?

Pier LaFarge

It is fair. And I would add manufacturing. All sorts of advanced manufacturing from chips and battery manufacturers and automakers. You know, CHIPS Act, IRA, IRJA, and then just general onshore โ€”

David Roberts

Much more to come, too.

Pier LaFarge

Much more to come. Trade wars, tariffs. Right. I mean, this is about manufacturing, data centers to a lesser extent, EVs, but it is also about geopolitical competition, national security. Again, I've said this a couple of times, but where those data centers are matters enormously to how we will fight wars in the 2040s and 2050s.

David Roberts

Yes, so it's just worth emphasizing here, if you took pollution and climate change considerations out entirely, almost all this logic would still operate 100%, it would still be basically the same situation. You would still need lots of DERs quickly.

Pier LaFarge

That's right. Climate change nor its relevant subsidies fundamentally alter this calculus. Now, cheaper is cheaper. A subsidy is a subsidy. So it would happen to some degree more. Everyone's going to do different math on their substations. And by the way, something we haven't even talked about is you can take a distributed capacity procurement and you can sell it to a hyperscaler as an offtake agreement. I mean, Constellation Energy just sold Three Mile Island's ghost to Microsoft.

David Roberts

I get a real kick out of that. I don't know why this is so redolent with symbolism.

Pier LaFarge

Spooky, scary. And that deal โ€” so that's historic, right? I think that's historically interesting.

David Roberts

So, what then? The utility rounds up a DCP and basically sells it to a power customer.

Pier LaFarge

Three Mile Island is 800 megawatts of nameplate, right? And nuclear has a very high accreditation factor. So, let's just call it, for argument's sake, 800 megawatts. What's the biggest problem with the innovation that selling Three Mile Island's ghost to Microsoft represents? It's that there are very few additional Three Mile Islands, right? Maybe Palisade. So, like, it's a pretty short list.

David Roberts

And Amazon's like, "Oh, we'll just build some nuclear plants." And the rest of the energy world's like, "Okay, you get back in touch in like 10 years."

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, and we'll see if that works, right? In some ways, I hope it does. But right now, if you ask yourself, where could you find 800 megawatts to sell forward to a hyperscaler?

David Roberts

Yeah.

Pier LaFarge

The answer is like 800 buildings. So, if all you needed to do to create another Three Mile Island is build accredited capacity of 1 megawatt in 800 buildings. And yes, I'm aware that that means building 1.6 or 1.78, you know, pick your rating. You know, I get that. It's not just a one for one. DERs aren't clean energy baseload. We're going to need a lot of clean baseload energy and dirty baseload energy to solve this problem for our nation, right? It's going to be truly the all-and-above.

David Roberts

Well, that's what I mean. It's part of what all the batteries are about, right? Batteries effectively make everything on the grid dispatchable. That's the whole magic.

Pier LaFarge

Easier, safer, and on time when you need it. You can handle issues before it overloads. You can dispatch it if it's windy overnight and the power hits Denver. You know, instead of building a smart grid, you build a smart sponge.

David Roberts

But what about, I guess I want to, I want to try to give listeners some sense of the scale available here. You know what I mean? Like, I'm thinking about Southern Company. I'm thinking about, like, Atlanta, you know, put solar and storage on, I don't know, half of the buildings in Atlanta. That's a lot of power at that point. Like, you're talking about multiple big power plants worth of power. Like how, what? Like, do we have any sense of the upper end of the scale available if we really did max out DERs everywhere we could?

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, well, you can do that thought experiment a couple of ways, and I think we can come back to Atlanta, too, because I think that Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, St. Paul are some of the most interesting places to think about this idea. But let's just talk about the kind of scale. You know, you can look at irradiance maps, you can look at hosting capacity maps, right. But I do the thought experiment a little differently. Think about it. I'll try to keep these numbers right. 50 utilities that each deploy 500 megawatts a year of DCP. If you did that for 10 years, you would end up with 250 gigawatts of power, which is 20% of the US electric grid.

David Roberts

Yeah. Pretty soon, you're talking about real, real money.

Pier LaFarge

In 10 years. And so, that's just. And by the way, that's just 50 utilities now, that's not a very high scale. So maybe it's 100, 200 a year. You know, I don't know. You can slide those maths. But fundamentally, I think there's a pretty real pathway for this Distributed Capacity Procurement idea to end up representing 10, 15, 20% of even a grid that's double.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Pier LaFarge

In a relevant timescale, over the very same decade in which many of the solutions of centralized power transmission and distribution investments that we have, don't even start kicking in until year 5, 7, and 10.

So, we should be starting now, getting the utility regulatory compact engaged to approve distributed capacity procurements, put them in plan, and start deployment periods so that we can measure DER history not in pilot success or how many pilots are being created, but in how many gigawatts of annual deployment capacity a region has. And we can measure the cost per watt going down from scaled procurement and industrial efficiency. We can measure customer value going up.

David Roberts

Will the cost of capital decline, as this stuff proves out? Or is it just the case that utilities just get cheap capital because of who they are?

Pier LaFarge

Utilities get cheap capital because of who they are. Wall Street gives American electric utilities capital at 3.5%, and they get some appreciation in the shares. But fundamentally, if you asked a private equity investor for $100 billion to go build a landscape-scale machine for a 3.5% return, the answer would be, "Who let this person in the building?" It would be like, "Call security." And what the US electric monopoly utility did right, again, regulated monopoly, was it created the most successful balance of private capital and public purpose in history to fuel American industrial growth.

David Roberts

Yeah, I think about all the conversations I've had that end up in the place where we're going. You know, what we need is like funding entities that are larger and more reliable and have more patient capital and can stay and will guarantee, be in the game for multiple decades. And you know, like we have those in some sense.

Pier LaFarge

A lot of systems, a lot of systems of innovation, end up reassembling current conditions. And in some moments, that's a tragedy. And in some moments, it's really hopeful because it means you have the tools in current form to fight this fight to keep Americans safe, healthy, and prosperous, to drive economic growth, to bring jobs, to keep the lights on, and to fight climate change all at the same time. No new regulation, no new laws, nothing. Like this is, this is how utilities were built. They were built to meet these moments of energy and economic history coming together. And it's what it's been doing for 100 years and it's what it's going to do in this moment.

David Roberts

Well, I guess we'll leave it there. This might be the longest episode of Volts in history, but in some sense, I think the reason this is catching on so much is that it's got a little bit of a "smack your head" about it, a little bit of obviousness, like "why didn't we think of this before?" But like, we have the utilities, we have the regulatory mechanisms to force them to do whatever we want. We have the experience in procurement, we have the cheap DER technology, we have at least the germs of DER supply chains in a lot of these places.

And really, they just need to start doing it. It's a very tangible, near-term, happy story, which we don't get a lot of these days.

Pier LaFarge

Well said.

David Roberts

Well, thank you, Pier, so much. And I can't wait to talk again in a few years and see, you know, what happened.

Pier LaFarge

Yeah, well, David Roberts, thank you for the decades of service and leadership that you provided. Thank you for teaching me a lot of things and for bringing me into this wonderful climate movement and showing me a wall to bang my head against for 15 years.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

๐Ÿ’พ

Volts community thread #13

Davidโ€™s Notes

1. ๐ŸŽ‰ Hey look, itโ€™s the one year anniversary of Volts doing monthly threads and mailbag episodes. A year ago we set a regular time for community members to interact, ask questions and share work. Weโ€™ve had about 1,000 comments since, and 10 or so mailbags. The system isnโ€™t perfect โ€” the Substack comments section leaves a lot to be desired โ€” but I think itโ€™s been working pretty well. What do you think? Are these things worth continuing?

If you think so, leave mailbag questions in the comments!

2. ๐Ÿคฌ Speaking of manners, the enshittification episode was one of my favorites this year, but it raised a bit of a dilemma for us. Weโ€™ve been bleeping curse words, to avoid Apple labeling us โ€œexplicit.โ€ But we couldnโ€™t very well bleep the central concept of the episode. Several listeners were annoyed at the inconsistency or annoyed by the bleeps in general.

So, should we just embrace being explicit and give up the bleeps?

3. Speaking of enshittification, Iโ€™m leaning into Bluesky now that Twitter/X is reaching the end stages of that disease. Itโ€™s all bad vibes. Iโ€™ll keep my account there open โ€” it does have over 200K followers โ€” but for now you can find my daily blather here:

https://bsky.app/profile/volts.wtf

4. ๐ŸŽ Delinquent in your duties to buy a loved one a gift? Might I suggest a Volts subscription? Weโ€™ve got new goodies in the works for 2025 beyond the mailbags & ticket giveaways that paid subs receive for their kind donations.

5. โœ… Community comment of the month: Ziggy adds some good color to the recent insurance episode:

There is a huge problem with insurer capacity. The capacity problem does not go away even if insurance rates could internalize every possible externality and there are no stranded assets or dysfunctional subsidies. The capacity problem is that massive events (hurricanes, earthquakes, wars) are lumpy, insurance contracts written annually, and capital markets are finite. As a result, insurers cannot write as much insurance as is demanded, even if the policies are perfectly priced. Think of taking a bet in which you put down $1, with a 50:50 outcome of either $3 or losing your dollar. Nice bet, no? Now think of putting down a million dollars, with the outcome either three million or losing your pension, house, and car. Not such a nice bet. This is the catastrophe risk problem.

The three usual answers to this problem are reinsurance--which smoothes the lumps among many insurers--catastrophe bonds (a kind of clunky reinsurance in capital markets drag) and exclusions, such as war risk. Exclusions protect the insurer, but have nothing else going for them. Reinsurance capacity is quite finite, and cat bonds are pretty inefficient, and perhaps also finite.

There is no good solution to this problem in the policy space, although I think that government insurance participations might help. Participations are not subsidies, since the government would simply add capacity, piggybacking on the insurers' (or reinsurers') risk assessments and rate and payout structures.

Abner would have you believe heโ€™s a handsome boy.
Abner would have you believe heโ€™s a handsome boy.

Monthly Thread โ€” How It Works

This is your monthly opportunity to share! Use the comments section in this community thread to:

  • CLIMATE JOBS & OPPORTUNITIES: Share climate jobs/opportunities

  • SHARE WORK, ASK FOR HELP, FIND COLLABORATORS: Share your climate-related work, ask for help, or find collaborators

  • CLIMATE EVENTS & MEETUPS: Share climate-related events and meetups

  • EVERYTHING ELSE: Discuss Davidโ€™s Notes or anything else climate-related

  • MAILBAG QUESTIONS: Ask a question for this monthโ€™s mailbag episode (anyone can ask a question but mailbags are a paid-sub-only perk). Volts has a form for those who are shy, but David prioritizes questions posted in this thread.

๐Ÿšจ To keep organized, please only โ€œREPLYโ€ directly under one of Samโ€™s headline comments. Anything inappropriate, spammy, etc may be deleted. Be nice! Check out our Community Guidelines.

His true nature.
His true nature.

Volts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Time to stop taking hydropower for granted?

In this episode, I speak with Malcolm Woolf and Connor Nelson about hydropower's underappreciated role in America's clean energy landscape. While providing most of our energy storage and thus supporting solar and wind deployments, hydropower faces significant challenges, with a decade-long relicensing processes and inadequate market compensation. We discuss why preserving and expanding this reliable, clean firm energy source is crucial as we transition to renewables.

(PDF transcript)
(Active transcript)

Text transcript:

David Roberts

Greetings, everyone. This is Volts for December 13, 2024, "Time to stop taking hydropower for granted?" I'm your host, David Roberts. Hydropower is a strange beast in America's clean energy menagerie. It's the oldest form of renewable energy and until fairly recently, the most abundant. But it doesn't get much attention in energy discourse or policy. It is generally taken for granted.

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In a recent paper, the industry's trade group has issued a wake-up call, arguing that hydropower is at risk and needs attention. Its unique attributes are extremely valuable in a grid heavy with variable renewable energy โ€” it was "clean firm" before clean firm was cool โ€” but, the paper argues, it is not being fairly compensated for the value of the grid services it provides.

Malcolm Woolf and Connor Nelson
Malcolm Woolf and Connor Nelson

As a result, a rising number of hydropower owners are thinking twice about going through the onerous and up-to-a-decade-long relicensing process. And because there is a large wave of such relicensing decisions coming up, the situation is urgent. To discuss all this today, I'm chatting with Malcolm Woolf, the CEO of the National Hydropower Association, and Connor Nelson, the author of the paper in question. We're going to get into the rising value of hydropower on a clean grid, the licensing challenges facing many generators, and the potential for new generation capacity from existing dams.

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All right, then. Okay. So, with no further ado, Malcolm Woolf and Connor Nelson, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.

Connor Nelson

Thanks for having us.

Malcolm Woolf

Happy to be here.

David Roberts

I wanted to do a pod on hydro forever. My attitude towards hydro, I think, is very reflective of people in the clean energy community generally, which is just, I just don't think about it a ton. It's kind of, I just take it for granted, I guess, assume it's always there, it's sort of puttering along at its level, reliably producing. I don't expect tons more of it, I don't expect tons less of it. I just kind of have factored it in as part of the background. But of course, that's never true of anything and there are things happening.

So, I want to just use this episode to just talk about the state of hydro, its challenges, and its potential. So, Malcolm, let's start with you. What is the scale of hydro in the US right now? So, what part does it currently play in our energy mix?

Malcolm Woolf

For starters, I think your perspective is exactly similar to so many in the clean energy space. They don't think about hydro. It's kind of out of sight, out of mind. And I think that's part of the problem. I sometimes think of us as the Rodney Dangerfield of the renewable energy space โ€” for those of you who remember the old comic โ€” you know, we don't get the respect we deserve. We're actually 80 gigawatts of existing emission-free generation on traditional hydropower. There's another 22 gigawatts of pump storage which provides long-duration energy storage. So, I think we're 96% of the nation's energy storage today.

Batteries get all the attention. I love them. I'm an EV enthusiast. However, for long-duration energy storage, most of it in this country is pump storage. So, together between the 80 gigawatts of traditional generation and the 22 gigawatts of pump storage, we're over 100 gigawatts of largely dispatchable, emission-free energy on the grid today.

David Roberts

And that is for the nerds among us, 6.2% of total US electricity generation, which is about, I guess, a third of nuclear and just a little bit behind wind, just a little bit behind solar. It's 29% of renewables.

Malcolm Woolf

So, we're not the largest energy source. We don't have any aspirations of being the largest energy source. But if that 6.2% went away, suddenly we've got an unreliable grid, and people can't stream Netflix and charge their iPhones. So, while it's small, you need it for reliability, which is the basis of the report.

David Roberts

I want to get to the report and Connor here because what's funny to me is the kind of the, one of the big things going on in the larger energy world right now is sort of the increasing prominence or prevalence of discussions about what's called clean firm generation, which is just โ€” renewables, wind and sun are variable, they come and go with the weather. And so right now on the grid, mostly what's being used to balance out renewables is natural gas, which you can turn on whenever you want and run as long as you want i.e., it's firm, but it's not clean.

So, what we need is clean sources of energy, emissions-free sources of energy that we can turn on whenever we want and run as long as we want. And so, there's all this discussion of nuclear playing that role, there's all this discussion of geothermal coming on strong and playing that role. But hydro is that already. It's a little weird that we talk so much about clean firm and talk so little about the giant bucket of clean firm we've already got. So, all of which is preface to come to you, Connor. So, the first half of the paper, more than half actually, is kind of a brief on the merits of hydro, specifically for a clean energy grid, the role it can play in a clean energy grid.

So, Connor, maybe just tell us, just quickly go over what is advantageous about hydro in the context of a clean energy grid.

Connor Nelson

I think it's really the uniqueness of the technology and being able to straddle both this position as a baseload resource and this position as a dispatchable, flexible resource. Right. So, hydropower is obviously a large source of operating reserves. You're able to quickly ramp power up and down following load, as the needs of the grid require. But at the same time, you're able to be a source of firm baseload power. So long as the water is flowing, you can generate power to help support a 24/7 reliable grid. So, it's really that duality of the resource, something that really no other renewable resource can do, and sort of occupy both of those spaces simultaneously.

David Roberts

You know, I think that aspect is fairly well understood. You can run it as baseload, you can just run it flat out continuously, or you can just increase or decrease the amount you're running through your turbines to ramp up and down, to follow load. Talk a little bit though about grid services, what are called ancillary services. Hydro has some features in that space too.

Connor Nelson

Yeah, absolutely. So, it's one of the maybe less obvious values of hydropower that really is the crux of why it's so important here to grid reliability. So, very similar to fossil fuel plants. But again, renewable hydro really has this spinning mass generation. So, there are these large turbines being pushed by water and that creates an inertia because you're actually moving a generator. And that inertia really helps with sort of keeping the grid at a healthy frequency. It helps with voltage control and all these other important ancillary services that keep the grid stable and keep the grid functioning through both sort of mundane everyday challenges to reliability โ€” that you never really see because the grid operators handle that โ€”

and also, more dramatic swings in, maybe say, extreme weather due to climate change or other scenarios can create really dire situations. Maybe a generation goes out, maybe transmission is damaged, and then hydropower can then provide sort of that resilience, getting the grid back up to speed rapidly.

David Roberts

Yeah, talk about black start. I don't know that non-energy nerds are conversant with that, mostly because it doesn't happen very often. But talk about hydro in that capacity.

Connor Nelson

Yeah, black start is really unique. It's a really interesting component of hydropower. So, although hydro is only 6.2% of US electricity, as you pointed out, it's 40% of our nation's black start resources, and the rest of it is pretty much just fossil fuels and natural gas. Basically, what black start is, is it's just the ability to generate power without any sort of auxiliary support from the grid.

David Roberts

Right. Power without power. How do you get your power going without some power to get it going? Right, that's the dilemma when the power goes out.

Connor Nelson

Exactly. Yeah, it's counterintuitive, power without power. But most resources require something from the grid to get going. But again, because of the large portion of operating reserves, water as a source of fuel is incredible. It doesn't require any preparation, like oil. It's very easy to access, so you can just open those gates and have yourself booted back up pretty quickly, and it creates basically this island of energy that then you can distribute back through the transmission system to boot up other resources that need auxiliary power.

Malcolm Woolf

Right.

David Roberts

That gives you the power to start the other power.

Connor Nelson

Exactly.

Malcolm Woolf

That's exactly what happened. For those of you old enough to remember the huge East Coast blackout, I think it was 20 years ago at this point, it was hydropower that restarted the grid because it has that black start capability. So, I actually prefer the name "essential grid services" rather than "ancillary services".

David Roberts

Yeah, ancillary does kind of make them sound like extras. You really do need them.

Malcolm Woolf

And right now, we've got a lot of those ancillary services, a lot of inertia on the grid, which is wonderful, which is why we don't really value it or pay for it. But as we know, coal plants are retiring, as nuclear plants age and retire, we're going to have less spinning stuff. Particularly with the exciting penetration of wind and solar and offshore wind, we're going to have more and more variable load and less and less baseload, which is why it's critically important to preserve and enhance the nation's hydropower resources.

David Roberts

Right. So, its role right now in these ancillary services, or essential services, if you will, is not marginal, but it's not the majority. But that's mainly because most of those services are done by fossil fuels. So, as fossil fuels drop out of the grid, these services that hydro can provide are going to be more and more important. And it is worth saying, because I know right now there are some energy nerds out there gritting their teeth, it is worth saying that there's a lot of work being done basically simulating those services or trying to accomplish those same services with inverter-based resources, basically sort of simulating spinning reserve and that kind of thing.

But you know, that kind of stuff is somewhat cutting edge now, and it's not totally clear how far it'll go. And it certainly is not going to hurt to have a third of your clean energy capable of that stuff.

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, and there was an interesting study done by, I believe, it was NREL a few years ago where they found that dispatchable hydropower can support, I think, it was 144 gigawatts of variable renewables. So, the existing dispatchable hydropower fleet. Now, 144 gigawatts is a huge amount but it's not enough to supply all of the US energy needs. So, we're going to need those other forms of clean firm, other forms of essential reliability services. But hydropower already exists, it already provides a huge resource for that and we need to value it and make sure it's around because in just a few years we're really going to need it.

David Roberts

Just to emphasize the point you're making, a little bit of stuff that can do this can enable a lot of variable energy. So, like, you know, any small increment more of hydro unlocks large increments of variable energy on the grid.

Malcolm Woolf

Exactly.

David Roberts

So, it's playing these crucial services, it's baseload, it's dispatchable, load following, it's doing all these grid services, stabilizing the grid voltage, etc. It's got black start capabilities. So, it's a key player on the team, let's just say. But Connor, the title and the sort of premise of the paper is that hydro is in trouble, that there are problems basically about licensing and relicensing. So, I was a little confused about this because in the paper you say there's a bunch of... We're sort of approaching a wave of hydropower dams reaching kind of the end of their natural life, their initial, you know, licensing period.

So, they're going to have to be relicensed, and this is a problem. But when I looked at the state of the hydro report that you sent the DOE, sort of state of hydro, it said that of all the dams coming up for relicensing, almost all of them are applying for relicensing. So, I'm trying to fit those two together in my head. Like, are we in danger of losing any substantial chunk of our existing hydro fleet? What is the problem exactly, the crisis?

Malcolm Woolf

Let me jump in on that one. Both things are right. Most hydropower facilities are starting the licensing process, yet we're still at risk of losing those very same facilities. The reason is that these facilities are not primarily energy facilities; they're really water infrastructure.

David Roberts

Right.

Malcolm Woolf

There are 90,000 dams in this country. There are 2,500 hydropower facilities. So, 3% of the nation's dams are hydropower. So, just to restate that, 97% of the nation's dams are not used for power generation. So, they're used for water storage, for flood control, for irrigation.

David Roberts

Do they have to be relicensed periodically? Just a dam being a dam.

Malcolm Woolf

They don't get relicensed. A dam is just a dam and it sits there. Now, if you add a hydropower facility to it, you generate emission-free resources and you get an income stream that can do the O&M. So, they give these facilities 50-year licenses. But unlike other facilities, that's not the useful life of the technology. There's actually a facility in Kansas that just celebrated its 150th anniversary. It's been producing power for that community for 150 years.

David Roberts

With the same turbine or do they switch out turbines?

Malcolm Woolf

They'll switch out turbines, but they switch them out like every few generations.

David Roberts

Right, right, right, right.

Malcolm Woolf

It is the first facility I saw. They actually had three turbines and they were doing a replacement and one was, they brought it up and I'm looking at this shiny new turbine that they're putting in and they said, "No, Malcolm, that's the 100-year-old one that Thomas Edison was here when we installed. The new one hasn't been delivered yet." So these are forever assets. If you maintain them, they can work forever. So from a regulatory perspective, a 50-year license is a reasonable time to reevaluate it. But that's not really the life of the unit.

David Roberts

Right.

Malcolm Woolf

So that's what the facilities are going through. They're starting the relicensing process. It typically takes about eight years, but in many cases, it can take a decade or longer. And when they start the process, they have no idea how long it's going to take, how much it's going to cost, or at the end of it, whether they're going to be required to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to do big upgrades. So just because you start the process doesn't mean that at the end of it you say, "You know what, it's not worth it, I'm just going to shut it down."

And of course, when you shut it down, it doesn't mean you remove the dam because you still need the dam for water storage, flood control, irrigation. You just turn off the powerhouse.

David Roberts

You just stop running the turbine?

Malcolm Woolf

You just stop running the turbine. Then, someone else has to pay for all the costs of maintaining a safe dam for water storage, for example. So, the farmers have to pay more, or the community has to float bonds in order to maintain the facility. That's the disconnect everyone assumes, I think, as you do, that hydropower is not going to go away, but it's also not going to grow. And I think both assumptions are wrong. Hydropower hasn't gone away in the last 50 years, but now we've got this wave of relicensing and now we've got wonderfully cost-competitive wind and solar.

And it's not at all clear that the facilities are going to be willing to make the investments needed, given our current structure, to maintain that existing fleet.

David Roberts

So, it's not the case that we've got a wave of hydro dams not relicensing, it's just that we're worried that there's a wave coming and we're worried about the result of that.

Malcolm Woolf

I think that's right. We've got a trickle already. I think we've seen about 65 facilities have chosen to voluntarily surrender their license in the last dozen years. In the last couple of years, it's gone up; there's another several dozen. So, we've got an increasing trend of voluntary license surrenders. These are largely the smaller facilities. What I'm worried about are the much larger facilities. Just between now and 2035, I think it's 16 or 17 gigawatts of facilities over 450 projects. So, it's that we've got a trickle, it's increasing, it's growing, and we're trying to get ahead of this problem because we saw what happened in the nuclear space where it took a few large facilities โ€”

David Roberts

Yeah. Now, we're scrambling to restart them, which.

Malcolm Woolf

Now, we're looking at Three Mile Island again. We're trying to avoid that problem.

David Roberts

I think it's just fair to say, as an almost categorical matter, that in today's environment, needing the clean energy we need, it's just crazy to turn off any clean, dispatchable resource of any kind. It's just crazy to do that. But it seems like the big ones, the big dams, are also going to be more likely to have the wherewithal to fight their way through the relicensing process, though, don't you think that's true?

Malcolm Woolf

I don't make any assumptions. I think the big dams may have more resources because they're generating more power. They've got more of a cash flow coming in, but they're also a bigger target. They're a bigger resource out there. One of the phenomena we've experienced is that because these facilities are only licensed once every 50 years, when they go through the licensing, the states and localities often use it as an opportunity to achieve all sorts of other valuable public policy means that have nothing to do with the facility. So, these facilities, unlike nuclear, get one license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Hydropower facilities get licenses from dozens of entities. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at the federal level, but then also a bunch of other federal entities, Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine Mammal. Then you've got the state entities, then you've got the local entities, and facilities have been ordered to build Boy Scout amphitheaters or take care of Forest Service land that has nothing to do with the facility and are dozens of miles away. It becomes a blank check for other public policy means.

An "everything bagel" is, I believe, the term of art we use for these days.

Exactly. And frankly, the hydropower industry, as part of being good citizens, would say, "Okay, if that's the price of doing business, okay." We can't afford to do that now. The energy industry is too competitive. You've got wonderfully competitive wind and solar. The economics just don't support that any longer. And so that's what may be driving these facilities to surrender. They can't keep paying for costs that are unrelated to their business and try to provide affordable 24/7 reliable power.

David Roberts

Yeah. So, struggling kind of in the same way and for the same reasons, nuclear is struggling, plays a very similar role on the grid and similarly struggles in the wholesale market for the same reason I think nuclear is. And now, here we are frantically looking for extra market ways of preserving it, just like we are with nuclear.

Malcolm Woolf

I think that's exactly right, that it's very similar to the risk that we've faced with nuclear in losing gigawatts of carbon-free nuclear generation. I will note though, that nuclear can't complement wind and solar in the way of making them clean firm the way that hydropower can. So, hydropower is really good for the energy transition.

David Roberts

Well, the nuclear people will tell you that they can ramp, even though in practice, you don't see it very often.

Malcolm Woolf

All right, well, we'll leave that for a different podcast. What I will highlight though, is that in the Inflation Reduction Act, I think there was $30 billion set aside for preserving existing carbon-free nuclear, and yet preserving existing carbon-free hydropower did not get any money.

David Roberts

Interesting.

Malcolm Woolf

Again, we're kind of out of sight, out of mind in the policy conversations.

David Roberts

Well, before we move on from this licensing thing, I mean, this really fits well into a recurrent theme these days in clean energy, which is our bureaucracy and our regulations and our desire to make everything into an everything bagel is impeding the rapid spread of clean energy. So, what do we do about this licensing? I mean, in some sense, because these things are so big and because they are far more than power generation, right? They do affect the biology of rivers. They literally affect the landscape. I mean, they affect recreational opportunities. I mean, it's not mysterious why their licensing is a little bit more complicated since they are doing a lot more things.

But what are some practical ways that this licensing and relicensing issue could be solved? And are there vehicles to do so at the federal level these days?

Malcolm Woolf

The good news here is that a lot of people have given this a lot of thought, and I'm proud to have worked through Stanford University, created a process called the Uncommon Dialogue, where they brought the hydropower industry together with some leading environmental groups, American Rivers and Union of Concerned Scientists and others, along with tribal groups and dam safety groups. And we actually developed a joint hydropower reform licensing process.

David Roberts

Oh, interesting.

Malcolm Woolf

A bill that was introduced on a bipartisan basis in Congress. It did not move, but it's still out there. And โ€”

David Roberts

Lame duck?

Malcolm Woolf

Lame duck. We're having conversations. Essentially, it was a compromise effort. There's something for everyone in the bill to hate because it doesn't give industry nearly as much streamlining as we wanted, but it's better than the existing process. And I think the other parties would say the same. But what it boiled down to is good government, from my perspective. What we really need is process discipline. You've got water as a shared resource. It flows through our facilities downstream to be used by others.

So, it makes sense that there's a lot of entities involved in licensing. What doesn't make sense is that if one state doesn't issue the water permit, a facility could be held up in getting its license for a decade. There's no capacity for any of the other entities to resolve disputes.

David Roberts

Sounds like transmission.

Malcolm Woolf

It sure does.

David Roberts

Lots of veto points.

Malcolm Woolf

Right. So it's the same, you know, we've got to "Build, baby, build." We've got to free ourselves up. And in most cases in the hydropower space, certainly for the 100 gigawatts, we're talking about existing facilities. So we're not talking about greenfield. We're not talking about building large dams in the lower 48. We're talking about preserving the existing infrastructure. There's also the opportunity for new. But the new stuff is in two categories. Either adding generation to existing dams that are already serving another purpose, so adding generation to non-power dams, or adding what's largely closed-loop pump storage.

David Roberts

I want to get back to the new stuff in a minute. I have lots of questions about the new stuff, but while we're still talking about the old stuff, there are several recommendations in the paper about how to help hydro. One is reforming this licensing relicensing process. And I was going to say โ€” like just as a last word on that โ€” it does seem like, I mean, licensing a new dam, I can see all the complications make sense to me. But like if a facility has been sitting there safely producing power for 50 years, it does kind of seem like the presumption should be on its side.

It doesn't seem like it should have to start from the ground up, justifying its existence all over again.

Malcolm Woolf

And it takes longer to relicense an existing hydropower facility than to relicense a nuclear plant.

David Roberts

Oh, that's crazy. Like eight years. Like, what do you, what do you...?

Malcolm Woolf

It's not even close.

David Roberts

You know, we hear these numbers and our eyes just glaze over. But like, literally, what could you do for eight years? I don't even understand. I feel like I could do it. If you gave me eight years, I could relicense the dam. How much work could there possibly be?

Malcolm Woolf

I mean, you want to do it right. You want to have reasoned decision making. So, to spend a couple seasons looking at fish breeding populations and its potential effect makes perfect sense. But what the agencies do is they do it in series. One agency does its study, its NEPA analysis of one species, and the other agency won't begin until that one's done.

David Roberts

That sounds like interconnection queues.

Malcolm Woolf

Get together at the beginning, figure out what you want to study, come together with an organized plan that's binding on all the different levels of government so that you don't have the delays.

David Roberts

Right, right. But moving on from licensing. So, one of the other critiques in the paper is that RTOs and ISOs, the administrators of regional wholesale energy markets, that basically, hydro is not compensated in those markets in a way that reflects its full value. What is the critique there?

Connor Nelson

The biggest concern is that a lot of the ancillary services that we discussed earlier, which are really vital to grid reliability and stability, are often compensated in what's called uplift payments, which are out-of-market payments. So, they get processed and compensated outside of the traditional competitive market structure, which allows for supply and demand to incentivize the entrance of new generations. So, a lot of what makes hydropower unique is not necessarily reflected in market compensation structures, which then means that there's a vacuum for incentivizing this kind of generation to continue. Essentially, the market signals are not being sent.

I mean, I think in ISO New England, for instance, almost 50% of their ancillary service compensation is uplift for hydropower. So, it's pretty pervasive.

David Roberts

Explain why it's a problem. Like, it's money for them, why is it?

Connor Nelson

Yeah, I think it's just that the value of those services is not reflected in the market. So, if you need more voltage control in a region, for instance, like the Western Interconnect, where there's really, really long transmission lines and you need appropriate amounts of reactive power to send energy across those transmission lines, that reactive power compensation is either not compensated at all or in some markets, it's compensated through uplift. And so, in moments where it's really necessary in either day ahead or on day of spot markets, that price, it's not reflected in the price.

David Roberts

I see. So, the value of the services changes depending on circumstances, but the payment doesn't.

Connor Nelson

Correct.

David Roberts

The payment doesn't reflect the value.

Malcolm Woolf

Just to share another example of that, I was touring one member's hydropower facility and I saw their black start operation and I asked them about it. They were doing one of their quarterly tests to show that it worked. They said that the quarterly tests cost them even more than they get from PJM for providing the service. So, they're providing the service because they know the grid needs it, but they're actually losing money by doing it.

David Roberts

Charity, basically.

Connor Nelson

And one more thing, I'll add that a lot of these services actually put wear and tear on hydropower facilities and equipment. The fast ramping, in particular, being able to ramp up your generation in as little as 10 minutes, does come at a cost. There's opportunity costs associated with it and there's also long-term wear and tear on the system. And those costs are not reflected in the market mechanisms either, in most RTOs and ISOs.

David Roberts

You know, anything having to do with RTO/ISO procedures is a rabbit hole. It's a pod of its own. But at a high level, how big of a deal would it be for RTOs to integrate these services into markets, to make them market reflective, to make them reflective of market circumstances? Like presumably some โ€” it sounds like some RTOs do it, so it sounds like it's doable. How big of a reform is that?

Connor Nelson

In the sense that what the value would be, I mean, it's a huge deal, right? I mean, as we have variable renewables more and more coming online, these ancillary services are sort of the important piece of the puzzle now. Right. And so, we need to change our compensation structures to now reflect the changing grid and the increasing value of these ancillary services. You see that happening with ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capability) in capacity markets and trying to measure whether or not a resource is actually going to perform when it says it's going to and how that affects the cost.

But, we just don't see that happening as rapidly as it should be, given the rapid changes to the grid and the increase in load, frankly, that we're seeing with data centers. It's becoming more and more important to compensate these reliability structures.

David Roberts

So, all these services are becoming more and more physically important to the operation of the grid as variable renewables come online, but they're not being compensated more and more to reflect that, I think is the basic critique here. The other critique in the paper has to do with compensation for hydro in the big bills Democrats passed in this past session, mainly IRA. But I remember reading, and I know that IRA did have billions and billions of dollars for hydro and it actually made hydro, it put hydro in a category with the other renewables and made it eligible for those same tax credits. So my impression was that that was, all things being equal, good for hydro.

But, the critique here is that the tax credits are not fairly compensating hydro. So, what's the critique there?

Malcolm Woolf

I think a lot of the senators and congressmen had the same misunderstanding that you had. It's wonderful that the Inflation Reduction Act now has an incentive for all forms of carbon-free generation. And hydropower is finally treated equally with wind and solar as a carbon-free source of generation. If you are building new hydropower, all of those incentives are only for new generation. And that's the distinction. There are new hydropower facilities being added to existing dams. There are a number of pump storage facilities being built. But the bulk of the fleet is the existing fleet.

David Roberts

Right. Does a new turbine added to an existing hydropower facility count as new or not?

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, if you were to increase the capacity from 100 megawatts to 150, 50 megawatts would be new.

David Roberts

Got it.

Malcolm Woolf

But if you were to take out a 100-year-old turbine and put in a new turbine at the same capacity, there'd be no net increase and you wouldn't get any incentive.

David Roberts

Got it. So all the IRA incentives are for new hydro, but new hydro is a relatively small sliver. So, what's the idea here? Make incentives, tax incentives available for upgrades, operational upgrades in existing facilities?

Malcolm Woolf

Yes, there are kind of three components. One, there should be some incentive if you take an existing facility and you upgrade it. If you repower it. There are similar incentives for repowering wind or solar. You should be allowed to repower an existing hydropower facility.

David Roberts

What does that mean, repower an existing facility?

Malcolm Woolf

Take that 50-year-old turbine and replace it with a modern turbine, but with the same capacity, overall capacity. So, you're not increasing generation from the unit, but now you've got a more modern turbine in there. Some turbines are helpful in addressing some environmental pollution and other things. So, it creates an incentive to preserve the existing fleet by investing in the powerhouse. The other two areas where there's big infrastructure investments needed are either in dam safety or in environmental improvement. And it doesn't increase electricity generation, but those are huge expenses that could drive a facility to voluntarily surrender their license.

So, there is a bipartisan bill pending in Congress with 13 senators on board, including six Republicans, that would create an incentive for existing facilities who invest either in dam safety or environmental improvements. They could get a tax credit for those investments. That would go a long way to changing the economics and viability of these facilities for generations to come.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's kind of tricky because it's like, then you've got electricity โ€” what is purportedly electricity policy โ€” paying for basically non-electricity stuff. But it is, you know, two steps removed from electricity. It is closely related to electricity. I can see why that's vexing.

Malcolm Woolf

Welcome to my world. This wasn't done in the IRA because they said, "It's not energy, it doesn't increase megawatts." But now, they're not as interested in doing it because it deals with energy and we already did that a few years ago. So, we're neither fish nor fowl.

David Roberts

That's hilarious. But there is a bill. Lame duck. So, we want basically more tax credit compensation for upgrading existing facilities, even if you don't change the output. And you want more tax credits for the non-energy parts of dam maintenance and renewal, basically is the idea.

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, and let me put this in a slightly larger context. We know that climate change is water change. So, particularly out west, we've got more rain in the fall, less snowmelt, and less snow in the winter, which is creating more floods in the spring and then summer droughts. So, how we adapt to climate is a lot of water management. And one way to pay for all of that water management, maybe it's flood control, maybe it's water storage, is using hydropower as a resource. You know, we've got all of the existing infrastructure which has not been addressed in the last four years, despite lots of efforts in lots of different areas of infrastructure.

The dam infrastructure was largely overlooked. So, we need to invest in that, and we need to deal with the realities of climate adaptation. What does that mean and how do we pay for it?

David Roberts

You know, one of the things you're seeing these days with extreme weather that comes from climate change, you frequently get these big droughts which then subsequently have a huge effect on hydro output. Like China, it had a big spike in emissions and in coal use in the past couple of years, mainly because of the big drought, which took out a bunch of its hydro. Can you make generalizations about sort of overall what climate change is going to do to hydro output? Or is it just all regionally sensitive, like, are we going to get on net less hydropower in the future or is it just going to be more in this season and less in this season? Or like, how do we. What's the right way to think about the effect of climate on hydro output?

Malcolm Woolf

A couple of thoughts on this one. First, I think we've all seen pictures of the Colorado River and it's tragic. I mean, it's horrible. But we live in a large country and a drought in one area is not a drought in another. And isolated examples are just that, they're isolated. The DOE National Lab, I think it was PNNL, did a study a few years ago of hydropower in the west during the mega-drought. And they found that even during the mega-drought, the region's hydropower sustained 80% of its average generating capacity. Yeah, the Colorado River is tragic, but the rivers will be low in California one year and then the next year there's atmospheric rivers and they restock or you import more electricity from the hydropower being produced in the Pacific Northwest.

There was a study recently done by the National Labs that tried to address the question you just asked: Given climate change, will there be more hydropower or less? And they found that in the next 50 years, you should expect more. In the United States, globally it may be a very different question. But more rain, more water, it's not in the Colorado, but it's in most of the rest of the country. And so, hydropower production would go up.

David Roberts

Is there such a thing as a particular hydro facility getting too much rain? Like more rain than it can handle, more rain than it can make power out of?

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, no, that happens all the time, actually. They often release water from the hydropower facility to maintain the dam, to maintain the reservoir, not to have the water level get up to people's homes. Our guys always talk about it as we're just spilling fuel, we're wasting water that we'd otherwise use.

David Roberts

It's like curtailing solar, basically.

Malcolm Woolf

That's right. And when we talk about pump storage, we can get into that dynamic a little bit.

David Roberts

We've been mostly talking about the existing hydro installation, how to maintain it, how to make relicensing it easier, how to, you know, because it is struggling in wholesale markets and not necessarily being compensated for its full value, how to compensate it more for the values and services it provides. But if I have one, sort of like unexamined presumption about hydro in the US, is that we've probably tapped out most of it and there's not a ton left to do. But when I look into it, that's not necessarily true. So let's address two separate questions. One is, how many new dams are there to be built?

It seems low, but I guess if you get into smaller, you know, what they call run-of-river hydro, stuff like that, I guess there's more opportunities. But just, I'd like a global sense or an overall sense in the US of like just how much untapped hydro there is? And then the second question is, how much more could we get out of existing hydro facilities? Those are two separate questions. Let's do the first one first. Like, are there lots of undammed rivers around?

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, the era of building dams in the US, particularly the lower 48, ended in the 50s and 60s. We haven't been doing that for 50 years.

David Roberts

Didn't find any more big rivers since then.

Malcolm Woolf

And it's also the, you know, the environmental ethos has changed, so we're not building new dams. What there is, is huge potential with the 97% of existing dams that don't have power generation. We've got lots of dams in this country. We can just add power to those existing facilities. And that's a win-win. The Department of Energy did do a study a few years ago and it found that using existing infrastructure, you could add about 13 gigawatts of generation.

David Roberts

Which, it's not a ton in the grand scheme of things.

Malcolm Woolf

That's right.

David Roberts

But every one of those gigawatts, just to recall an earlier part of our conversation, unlocks many more gigawatts of variable renewables. So, these are particularly valuable gigawatts.

Malcolm Woolf

Right. And it also creates an income stream to actually maintain those facilities, which we need for climate adaptation, all that water storage and flood control, et cetera.

David Roberts

So, I'm picturing 90,000 dams, 3% of them are generating electricity. One obvious question is just like, why so few already? Clearly, these opportunities are not particularly economic under current circumstances.

Malcolm Woolf

That would be a logical conclusion, and I think you'd be wrong. Oh, I think again, there's been a lot of study of these issues and the federal government released a report a dozen years ago identifying the top 100 facilities that existing dams that could be powered. And I think 88 of them were owned by the Corps of Engineers. So, it's not a question necessarily of the economics, because my members would love to develop and add generation to those non-power dams. The Corps of Engineers has a lot of missions. They've got a lot of things on their plate. They are the largest renewable generator in the nation, but they don't even realize it given all of the hydropower that they operate.

They are the largest single source of renewable generation, but it's like a tertiary responsibility for them. And they just haven't moved to develop their own resources, nor have they let the private industry come in and pay for the development of those resources.

David Roberts

Why not? Is that just a culture thing or environmental thing?

Malcolm Woolf

They are just pulled in so many different directions that this has just not been a priority. And I used to joke that in the all-of-the-government climate approach that President Biden imposed, that memo never got to the Corps of Engineers.

Connor Nelson

Yeah, and I'll add that the Corps of Engineers has an obligation to balance all of the various roles that those dams play as it relates to water supply, recreation, and other things. So again, the sort of multipurpose nature of hydropower can sometimes be difficult to navigate. But on the economics of non-powered dam development, I'll also point again back to the licensing. The uncertainty around the licensing process is a real wet blanket on private investment. NREL did research a couple of years ago, maybe actually this year, on the private investment landscape and when they spoke to venture capitalists, private equity investment banks, folks that are going to be bankrolling, that are bankrolling a lot of these renewable projects, they found that 91% of them were uninterested in early-stage investments in projects, mostly due to the uncertainty associated with licensing.

So, getting private money in the licensing process is a real obstacle to that.

David Roberts

Interesting. Speaking of the multifunction aspect of dams, does adding power to an existing dam substantially affect the ecology around the carrying capacity? All the other features of dams? Is adding power substantially messing with those other features or changing those other features? Or is it pretty much surgical? I have no sense of the physical job here.

Malcolm Woolf

"Surgical" is a great word for it. I'm thinking of one of the more recent non-powered dams that were built, and they simply diverted water just above the dam, ran it through a turbine, and then reintroduced that same water back to the river a few blocks below the dam. So, it didn't have any significant environmental impact, but it still took a decade to license.

David Roberts

A decade? Again, I just can't...

Malcolm Woolf

A dam that already existed.

David Roberts

Geez, like the solar people complain.

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, and that's the dynamic we're facing. It's a lot easier to build wind and solar now, and you could get them licensed in a year or two and built in a year or two, and you're done. The problem is that facility may need to be decommissioned in 10 years or 15 years. And the hydropower facility, once it's built, can last 100 years. It's a forever asset once you've got it going. But heck, we may still be waiting for a permit by the time they're decommissioning that wind turbine.

David Roberts

I mean, this sounds complicated because there are all these different functions. So, there are lots of different stakeholders involved and interested in these things. Are there simple reforms that could make it easier, that would facilitate more redevelopment of existing dams, more additions?

Malcolm Woolf

There needs to be a streamlined process with much more certainty as to the timing. And I think if we focus the industry on the facilities which do not have a big environmental footprint, either adding generation to a non-powered dam or, as I mentioned earlier, closed-loop off-river pump storage, those are relatively non-controversial permitting processes. This is why in that bipartisan license reform bill that a number of environmental groups were comfortable with, it included a two or three-year licensing process for these kinds of new generation because they do have little or no environmental impact. So, you don't need to spend years doing those kinds of studies.

If it's not on a river, for example.

David Roberts

And who's in charge of the Army Corps of Engineers? Who would be the person to come in and redirect some of their attention in this way? I mean, it seems like Biden's whole-of-government thing would have been the thing to do that, but apparently, it didn't.

Malcolm Woolf

Yeah, I'm hoping that with the administration change, President Trump has been talking about energy dominance, and I think this is a great opportunity for them to have the federal government lead by example and elevate the importance of power generation as part of our own fleet.

David Roberts

It does seem to fit right into the permitting reform discussion that's going on right now. It's odd in some sense that this didn't make it into that permitting bill, the Manchin-Barrasso permitting bill.

Malcolm Woolf

I would agree. And we're talking to them as part of the lame duck, trying to see what we can get added and if not, we'll be back next Congress.

Connor Nelson

I'll add that there are provisions in the Water Resources Development Act of 2024 that try to streamline some of these processes within the Corps of Engineers' own structure. And there is language in there to hopefully improve that, including things like the establishment of a single office and an outreach coordinator specifically for projects that are trying to develop on Corps property.

Malcolm Woolf

And Dave, let me just highlight the area where there is a lot of market activity going on, which is in the pump storage.

David Roberts

Yeah, I was going to ask about that next. So, there's the question of getting more power generation capacity out of existing dams, and it sounds like there's quite a bit of potential there. But then, of course, there's the big looming need for power storage, which I think Volts' listeners are very familiar with. And I think they're mostly familiar with the fact that 96% of our existing energy storage is in pumped hydro. All other forms are playing catch up from a very distant second place. Tell me the capacity, like where could we build? What do we need to build new pumped hydro?

Because, of course, like the big ding on pumped hydro, the big criticism is just that it's very geography specific. You need a big hill basically and a bunch of water to make it work. So, how much capacity for new pumped hydro is there? Who's exploiting it and what's kind of standing in the way?

Malcolm Woolf

I think that's the area where there's a lot of exciting developments. In that Department of Energy study, they found there was the potential for another 36 gigawatts of new pump storage.

David Roberts

Relative to, what's the base now?

Malcolm Woolf

Base now is 22 gigawatts.

David Roberts

More than exists?

Malcolm Woolf

That's right. You could increase it by, what is that? 150%. But we're finding the market has found even more opportunities. So with the growth of variable load, I think increasingly folks are recognizing, "Hey, we need clean and firm." And so there are over 90 projects proposed at the FERC queue for new pump storage projects. Over 50 gigawatts in the queue.

David Roberts

Oh, wow.

Malcolm Woolf

I don't expect most of those to get built. Some of them may be in places where they shouldn't be built, but there's huge potential for, you know, eight-hour plus duration energy storage. And the one increasing innovation is that it doesn't have to be on a river. Folks have realized, you know what, once we fill the pump storage facility the first time, we're really just moving the water from either one reservoir to another or one tank to another. And then when there's excess solar, we can pump it back up and release it at the next sunset when the solar cycles off and we need the generation.

David Roberts

So this is what closed loop means, basically using a finite amount of water over and over again?

Malcolm Woolf

So, that really expands the opportunity.

David Roberts

Because then you just need a hill.

Malcolm Woolf

Exactly.

David Roberts

You can bring your own water.

Malcolm Woolf

Right.

Connor Nelson

I would also add that in addition to the closed-loop pump storage, in some cases, you don't even need a hill. There's a lot of work being done right now in developing pump storage in current and former mine lands. So, former coal mines underground, which totally changes the dynamic of the kind of land you can develop.

David Roberts

Pumping it up and down a mineshaft, basically.

Connor Nelson

Exactly.

Malcolm Woolf

There's an interesting project, actually, that the Department of Energy has helped fund some of the initial studies. I think it's Lewis Ridge in Kentucky where they're trying to do just that, use a former coal mine and convert it into a pump storage facility. Typically, you have transmission resources, and you've got the other infrastructure there. So, it really makes a nice resource.

David Roberts

Yeah, that's a good thing about all these abandoned mines and abandoned power plants too. In some sense, they have all that infrastructure laying around. Is there an extant pumped hydro facility that's using an old mine, or is all that sort of in the works?

Malcolm Woolf

I think Lewis Ridge is probably the furthest along. That's the Kentucky facility. The Department of Energy, as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, did give them, I think, over $100 million to start moving on that. So, things are moving. But these are billion-dollar facilities again. They last for a century or more.

David Roberts

So, all of them are big. There's not such a thing as like small distributed pumped hydro. Is this essentially a big thing?

Malcolm Woolf

Folks are looking at distributed pump storage. Folks are even doing it without water. Kind of take apartment buildings and just use weights and move things. There's something to be said for economies of scale, particularly once you add the transmission and the other costs involved. So, folks are actively looking at much smaller scale pump storage. In fact, the former Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, is a big proponent of distributed pump storage. But the economics haven't yet penciled out.

Connor Nelson

The size and the scale really do matter for pump storage. When you get up to something like a 1000 megawatt pump storage plant, the actual cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt hours really is outperforming most chemical battery storage. But you need that scale to make it pencil out in most cases. And obviously, it's a long lead time investment.

David Roberts

Yeah. So, there's a lot of pumped hydro proposals out there. You say 90. When was the last time one actually got built and opened? Is there a long gap between the last new one and this new wave?

Malcolm Woolf

There is, indeed. The last one that opened in the United States was 20 years ago.

David Roberts

Oh my goodness.

Malcolm Woolf

So, we haven't built a new one in 20 years and the market's been pretty quiet. But in the last, I would say, 18 months, two years, suddenly folks are seeing the need for clean and firm and how do you provide data centers and everyone else with the 24/7 reliability they need? So, all of these proposals are coming up, but again, with a 10-year licensing process, we're not going to be able to achieve our goal.

David Roberts

So, all 90 of these pumped hydro storages are facing up to 10 years of licensing. That can't be allowed to happen, it can't be right.

Malcolm Woolf

100%. To be clear, three of the facilities have actually completed the licensing process. So, they're fully licensed. They still need to get through financing and interconnection and offtake agreements, and construction has not started.

David Roberts

Good grief.

Malcolm Woolf

So, it's a crazy process.

David Roberts

Yeah. So, none of these, I mean, practically speaking, none of these are going to be ready in time to meet the short-term boom in data center capacity. I mean, is that fair to say? There's not โ€”

Malcolm Woolf

I think that is fair to say, but I think that's also true of the slate of new nuclear.

David Roberts

Yeah, it's true of almost everything people are talking about. The timescales are completely โ€” We don't, because we're not capable of doing anything quickly. That's kind of what we're discovering.

Malcolm Woolf

And that is something that this kind of new administration has talked about.

David Roberts

Yeah, well, they talk about a lot of things.

Malcolm Woolf

That is true, but we'll see whether this is one of the areas they actually want to move on.

David Roberts

So are there licensing issues unique to pumped hydro storage that don't face just normal hydro, or is it mainly like the same stakeholders, the same long process, et cetera? Are there particular reforms for that process?

Malcolm Woolf

The problem is, it's treated just like facilities that are on a river, when actually it's a whole lot easier when you're just moving the water between two existing spots. So, that's why our proposal is, "Let's craft a different process. Let's not treat it like everything else."

David Roberts

Right. It does seem like when you're messing with a river, you're messing all of a sudden with ecosystems and biology and hydrology and everything else. But if you just find a hill and you bring your own water to pump up and down, up and down, it's just intuitively much less involved, much less interconnected with everything else.

Malcolm Woolf

Exactly. And the amount of water is substantial. So, how do you get that first fill? There are issues to be talked about, but we're hoping for a two or three-year process as opposed to what we've got now.

David Roberts

And so, if we could just kind of summarize where we've been, tell me if this is fair. So, hydro has been pumping along for 50 plus years, 100 years now, in some cases more or less at the same level for the last several decades. But two things are happening: one, it's becoming more valuable because of the characteristics of the clean energy grid. It's clean, firm, it's baseload, it's dispatchable, it can do storage. It really is a bit of a Swiss army knife for the clean energy grid. But the amount it's being compensated is not reflecting that increasing value.

And in fact, the opposite is happening. What's happening is a bunch of them are coming up for renewal, relicensing, and are facing this onerous 8 to 12-year process which some of them will decide not to go through at all. So, we're actually facing what could be a decline in hydro capacity at the very time we need, at the very least, to preserve what exists and to make more. Is that fair?

Malcolm Woolf

I think so.

Connor Nelson

Sounds like it.

David Roberts

And just to finish here with the politics, you sort of, Malcolm, kind of alluded to this a couple of times. But my sense, it's a little bit like when I talk to the geothermal people, they're like, "Our problem is not that we have enemies, it's just that we don't have enough sort of vigorous friends." And I get a little bit of the same vibe from hydro. It doesn't seem like โ€” I know there are complaints about hydro's ecological impacts and methane emissions and stuff like that, but by and large, hydro just seems like it's taken for granted by everybody.

Everybody seems fine with it, nobody seems that excited about it. And basically, what it needs is more vigorous friends. It's got sort of bipartisan support, but not the intensity it needs. Do you see that changing at all in this new regime? I mean, I guess the positive story you could tell about this new political regime is that there'll still be a lot of momentum towards doing energy stuff. They're not going to want to do the same energy stuff as the dirty Democrats, which is mostly coded wind and solar. So, it does seem like that energy, plus the need to find new outlets for it, might be promising for hydro.

Am I straining the bounds of reality here, or do you see some glimmers of hope?

Malcolm Woolf

I think that's right. I think, by and large, historically, Democrats have liked hydropower. Because we're emission-free, we're dispatchable, so we could kind of firm up the variable wind and solar. Republicans have traditionally liked us because we're domestic, baseload, secure. We're hoping to translate some of that broad support into folks who will actually champion the resource. And we've been the middle stepchild or whatever the analogy you want to use. We've been overlooked or taken for granted for a very long time. And now, because of that time clock with the licenses, we're actually at risk of having gigawatt-scale retirements, which would really just set back not only our climate efforts but grid reliability.

David Roberts

Yeah, and you've got these existing bills floating about that do a lot of the things you want. I guess the hope here is just that maybe there's another kind of energy omnibus kind of thing and those just get tossed in. I mean, is that kind of the route we can anticipate?

Malcolm Woolf

The pathway at this point is really unclear to me. But I think maybe to pick up your earlier theme, we did not get a lot of attention over the last several years, and maybe that could be our saving grace going forward because we were not included, or at least the existing fleet was not included in the IRA. Hopefully, the Trump administration will not overlook us.

David Roberts

Yeah, you haven't been partisan coded yet. You're one of like a tiny handful of institutions remaining in the US that's escaped that. All right, guys. Well, this has been super, super fascinating. This is exactly what I've been wanting to do for ages. Just sort of check in with hydro, see where it is. Because it's like, it's this incredible resource. And I do feel like because it's just been there doing its thing for so long, we don't pay enough attention to how cool it is and how helpful it is specifically in what we're trying to do in clean energy.

So, thank you for coming on and walking us through all this.

Connor Nelson

Thanks, David.

Malcolm Woolf

Well, David, I've been a longtime fan of the Volts, so this has been real fun for me.

David Roberts

Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially, to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes me and my guests sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So, if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or, leaving a nice review, or telling a friend about Volts. Or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.

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