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Elevated crack spreads and crude oil prices contribute to higher prices at the pump

What are crack spreads and why are they elevated? Crack spreads are indicators of the profitability of refining crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. One common crack spread is calculated by subtracting the spot market price of a gallon of crude oil from the wholesale price of a gallon of refined product. Since May, the gasoline crack spread in New York Harbor has averaged about $1 per gallon (gal) higher than in 2025, when the crack spread peaked around 60 cents/gal. Gasoline crack spreads are elevated primarily because of tight gasoline supplies globally.

U.S. LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 because of higher capacity

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first six months of the year, 23% more than the same period in 2025, according to our Natural Gas Monthly. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we estimate U.S. LNG exports will average 17.3 Bcf/d in the second half of 2026 (2H26) before rising to 18.7 Bcf/d in 1H27.

Waterborne shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast increased in April and May

Waterborne shipments of crude oil and petroleum products from the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) to the West Coast (PADD 5) more than quadrupled year-on-year in April and May following a waiver that permitted a broader group of ships to travel between U.S. ports. Shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast (PADD 1) also increased.

Duration of power outages in Puerto Rico not caused by major events increased 19% in 2025

In 2025, customers in Puerto Rico experienced an average of 36 hours of power interruptions that were not caused by major events such as hurricanes, 19% more than in 2024. On average, between 2021 and 2025, Puerto Rican customers experience 29 hours of power loss each year. By comparison, electricity customers in the mainland United States generally experience about two hours of electricity interruptions per year without major events.

Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years

Utility-scale battery storage capacity in the United States increased significantly during the last three years, with an annual average growth rate of 70%. By the end of 2025, the U.S. power system had operational battery storage capacity of 43.6 gigawatts (GW). During the first six months of 2026, operators added another 8.3 GW of battery storage capacity, reaching nearly 52 GW of nameplate battery storage capacity, based on our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.

China's crude oil imports fell in the second quarter

China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, imported less crude oil in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) following higher crude oil prices that resulted from disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. China's lower imports reduced global demand, softening the upward price effects from the disrupted supply through the strait.

Lower crude oil prices reduced U.S.-Canada energy trade value in 2025

The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell by 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Energy trade value is the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the U.S.-Canada trade value is U.S. energy imports from Canadaβ€”$111 billion in 2025β€”rather than from U.S. energy exports to Canada, which totaled $26 billion last year. Crude oil accounts for the largest component of U.S.-Canada energy trade, making up 69% of the total value traded in 2025.

Hybrid sales rise while battery electric sales remain lower after tax credit expiration

In the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), 24% of new light-duty vehicles sold in the United States were hybrid electric, battery electric, or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, up from 22% in 2Q25. Between 2Q25 and 2Q26, hybrid electric vehicles continued to gain market share, reaching a record 16% of light-duty vehicle sales. The market shares of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles decreased, according to estimates from Omdia. In 2Q26, battery electric vehicle sales were 6% of new light-duty vehicles sold, down from 7% in 2Q25; plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales fell from 1.9% to 1.4% over the same period.

Energia Costa Azul, Mexico's second LNG terminal, shipped first cargo

Energia Costa Azul, the second liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Mexico, shipped its initial cargo from Phase 1 of the terminal on July 8, according to the project developer. The completion of the project adds 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of nominal export capacity from a single train, tripling Mexico's LNG export capacity. The facility is the first terminal in Mexico and the second in North America, following LNG Canada, to be located on the Pacific Coast, boosting North American export capacity there to 2.2 Bcf/d. The Pacific Coast location allows for shorter shipping routes to importers in Asia.

Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels

For the week ending July 17, 2026, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels, 6% below the previous five-year (2021–2025) average. Gasoline inventories increased 0.8 million barrels, 7% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories increased 1.4 million barrels, 10% below the five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories increased 6.3 million barrels, 34% above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels for the week.
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