We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower crude oil prices on gasoline prices.

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.

Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.

Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.

In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.

After a decade of nearly flat prices from 2011 to 2021, inflation-adjusted fuel prices for natural gas vehicles increased in 37 states from 2021 to 2023, according to new estimates in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). Real U.S. natural gas prices for vehicle fuel remained 25% below their peak in 2008.

On December 26, 2024, Plaquemines LNG—the eighth liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in the United States—shipped its first cargo after achieving first LNG production in mid-December. Plaquemines LNG is one of two U.S. LNG export terminals that started LNG production in 2024. Corpus Christi Stage 3 (an expansion of the existing Corpus Christi LNG export terminal) also began LNG production in December 2024.

Japanese utilities restarted two additional nuclear reactors in 2024 that had been suspended from operations in response to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, taking the total number of restarted reactors to 14 since the accident. In November, Tohoku Electric Power Co. restarted its 796-megawatt (MW) Onagawa Unit 2 reactor, and in December Chugoku Electric Power Co. restarted its Shimane Unit 2 (789 MW). Onagawa is the nuclear power plant located closest to the epicenter of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

In 2024, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars ever reported. The annual average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in 2024 decreased by 16% from its 2023 average and 68% from its 2022 average, the largest two-year decline on record. The monthly average Henry Hub spot natural gas price in 2024 ranged from $3.25/MMBtu in January to an all-time low of $1.51/MMBtu in March, reflecting a narrower $1.74/MMBtu range of monthly prices across the year than the average range of $2.32/MMBtu over the prior five years.

The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $3.30 per gallon (gal) in 2024, $0.21/gal less than in 2023. Lower crude oil prices and narrower refinery margins in 2024 than in 2023 both contributed to the decrease in U.S. retail gasoline prices, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. From the first week of 2024 through the last week, national average weekly gasoline prices decreased $0.08/gal.

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.

Crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) states, which excludes Alaska and offshore production, reached a record 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2024, according to our estimate in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on December 10. Crude oil production in the L48 states increased 3% year over year despite fewer active rigs in most major producing regions, demonstrating gains in operational efficiency.

Electricity routinely flows among the Lower 48 states, with almost 10% of U.S. electricity generation traded across state lines. Generation of electricity exceeds its consumption in 25 states, and excess electricity is transmitted across state lines. In 2023, utilities in Virginia brought in the most electricity from other states, with 50.1 million megawatthours (MWh) in net electricity interstate receipts, or 36% of the state's total electricity supply. Generators in Pennsylvania moved the most electricity outside state borders in 2023, with 83.4 million MWh of power shipped out, or 26% of generation in Pennsylvania.

India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). China's oil consumption grew by more than India's in almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with China's oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country during those years.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Gasoline Sulfur program sets limits on the sulfur content of gasoline sold in the United States, with the aim of reducing a variety of vehicle emissions. The program relies on tradable credits that allow U.S. refiners and gasoline importers to reach compliance with sulfur specifications. For the second year in a row, in 2023, gasoline suppliers obtained and retired more sulfur credits than they generated, a trend that could increase supplier compliance costs and the price of octane in gasoline if it continues.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which ran from June 1 through November 30, exhibited above-average activity with more named storms and hurricanes than usual, including several that disrupted U.S. energy infrastructure, primarily on the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast. Energy impacts from hurricanes this season were most notable in electricity markets, although Hurricanes Francine, Helene, and Rafael forced some oil and natural gas production from fields in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut in.

Electricity consumption in the U.S. Lower 48 states is highly seasonal; the demand for electricity peaks in the summer and the winter in response to more extreme temperatures and decreases in the spring and fall, in the so-called shoulder seasons, when weather is generally milder. Electric utilities and owners of power-generating assets perform maintenance on power plants during shoulder seasons because of less electricity demand that means that the system generally doesn't need to be operating at full capacity.

The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price fell to $1.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on November 8 and November 11, 2024, an all–time low in inflation–adjusted dollars. Four of the record–low daily prices when adjusting for inflation occurred in November 2024, and the remaining six occurred in 2024 as well. The Henry Hub spot price in November averaged $2.12/MMBtu, the lowest average price for that month ever when adjusting for inflation.

Second-quarter 2024 financial results for 34 publicly traded U.S. oil exploration and production (E&P) companies suggest increasing well productivity is helping these companies reduce production costs on a per barrel basis and freeing up cash for other uses such as dividends and share repurchases.