We expect energy expenditures this winter will vary based on a home's main space heating fuel: homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more than they did last winter. Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.

U.S. ethane exports are poised for significant growth through 2026, driven by robust global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, substantial U.S. export capacity expansions, and larger vessels to carry ethane exports. In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. ethane net exports will grow 14% in 2025, followed by a 16% rise in 2026. The United States does not import ethane.

An increasing share of U.S. households are using electricity for heating, although natural gas remains the most common heating fuel. In 2024, 42% of U.S. households reported that electricity was their main space heating fuel, according to annual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Natural gas was the main heating fuel in 47% of homes last year, a decline from 49% in 2010.

We estimate crude oil inventories in China increased by about 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) between January and August this year, essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global markets. The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure we would otherwise expect to see with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around $68 per barrel (b) in the second and third quarters of 2025.

The United States is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. For the week ending September 26, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year, based on data in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), ending the quarter just 9 cents per barrel (b) less than they started, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 3Q25, covering crude oil prices and refinery margins.

The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was estimated to be $57 billion in 2024, down from nearly $72 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A combination of lower petroleum output from Mexico and lower fuel prices, particularly for petroleum products that make up the bulk of the cross-border energy trade between the two countries, drove most of the decrease.

In 2023, Texas consumed more energy than any other state. Total energy consumption in Texas was twice as much as in California, the second-highest consuming state, and more than three times as much as in Florida, the third-highest consuming state, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). U.S. total energy use peaked in 2007, and between 2007 and 2023, Texas's energy consumption increased 21%, while U.S. energy use decreased 5%. According to our SEDS data, most of the energy consumption growth in Texas is attributable to increased industrial activity, population, and electricity demand.

Two electricity markets in the Midwest still generate more electricity from coal than from natural gas in at least some months of the year: Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). We expect these two regions will generate more electricity from coal than from natural gas in some upcoming winter months, based on forecasts in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Growth in distributed solar generation capacity has driven growth in total electricity generation capacity in Brazil since 2019. Distributed solar generation capacity grew from less than 1 gigawatt (GW) in 2018 to 40 GW in 2025 through June, accounting for 43% of all electricity capacity additions over that period.

In our September Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. total distillate inventories to end 2025 and 2026 at lower levels than previous years because of significant inventory draws in 2025, strong export demand, and domestic production declines stemming from refinery closures. In the weeks since the publication of this forecast, U.S. distillate inventories have increased substantially, but they remain relatively low. Distillate fuel oil includes both diesel fuel used in vehicles and home heating oil. Lower distillate inventories elevate the risk of higher prices and price volatility from supply disruptions, especially during periods of high demand like the autumn harvest and winter heating season.

In our annual survey of power plant activity, we ask operators of utility-scale batteries how they are using their systems, and one use case is increasingly prevalent: price arbitrage. Arbitrage involves buying electricity when prices are relatively low and selling that electricity when prices are high.

Over the past few years, net electricity inflows from Canada into New York (New York Independent System Operator, or NYISO) and New England (Independent System Operator of New England, or ISO-NE) have decreased. We identified this trend in an analysis in 2024, and the trend has continued through the first eight months of 2025. From January through August 2025, daily net electricity imports from Canada into ISO-NE averaged less than 40% of those occurring over the same months in 2022. During the same period, NYISO and Canada net trade fell to 25% what it was during the same months of 2022.

In early 2023, the European Union implemented a ban on seaborne imports of diesel fuel, commonly called gasoil, from Russia following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine the previous year. The ban reoriented trade flows as Europe imported more diesel from the Middle East and the United States rather than Russia. This summer, Europe's increased reliance on imports from the Middle East, coupled with conflict-related disruptions to refineries and escalating geopolitical tensions, contributed to a tightened global diesel market.

Per capita CO2 emissions from primary energy consumption decreased in every state from 2005 to 2023, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System. Total energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States fell 20% over that time, and the population grew by 14%, leading to a 30% decrease in per capita CO2 emissions.

Monthly average natural gas spot prices in the northwestern United States reached historic lows in 2025, as ample supply from Canada coincided with subdued regional demand for natural gas-fired electricity. At Northwest Sumas, a key pricing hub for natural gas in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the daily spot price averaged $1.59 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 through August and reached its lowest ever monthly average price of $0.56/MMBtu in June, according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence. The monthly average price for the first eight months of this year is the lowest for this period of any year since at least 1999, and it is about 17% lower than in this same period in 2024.

In August 2025, Egyptian firm Blue Ocean Energy struck a $35 billion deal with partners in the Chevron-operated Leviathan field offshore of Israel to import more natural gas from Israel, the latest move by Egypt to meet natural gas demand that is outpacing domestic production. In our latest update to the Eastern Mediterranean Energy briefing, we discuss the drivers behind Egypt's dwindling natural gas supply and analyze the natural gas dynamics in the region.

U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 (1H25) compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels and generally lower domestic consumption of these fuels.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both Russia's natural gas and coal exports have declined when compared with 2021. Russian exports to Europe have decreased most notably due to a mix of European sanctions and other policies aimed at reducing reliance on Russian energy. Russia has partially offset the decrease in natural gas and coal exports to European markets by increasing exports to Asia. However, pipeline and rail infrastructure to deliver natural gas and coal into Asia is less than the infrastructure capacity available for delivery into Europe, limiting the natural gas and coal exports that can be redirected without significant new infrastructure investments. For comparison, Russia has redirected crude oil and condensate exports from Europe to Asia with little new infrastructure.

Between 2020 and 2024, total crude oil and lease condensate production in the United States grew by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d), 93% of which was produced from just 10 counties in Texas and New Mexico. Production from the rest of the United States, including producing areas in offshore state or federal waters, grew by just 130,000 b/d.