In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast retail U.S. gasoline prices will be lower the next two years than in 2025, falling 6% in 2026 and then increasing 1% in 2027. Our gasoline price forecast generally follows a similar path as global crude oil prices, but decreasing U.S. refinery capacity this year may offset some of the effects of lower crude oil prices on gasoline, especially in the West Coast region.

Electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector totaled about 4,260 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2025. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.1% in 2026 and by 2.6% in 2027, when it reaches an annual total of 4,423 BkWh. The three main dispatchable sources of electricity generation (natural gas, coal, and nuclear) accounted for 75% of total generation in 2025, but we expect the share of generation from these sources will fall to about 72% in 2027. We expect the combined share of generation from solar power and wind power to rise from about 18% in 2025 to about 21% in 2027.

We expect the U.S. benchmark natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub to decrease about 2% to just under $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 before rising sharply in 2027 to just under $4.60/MMBtu, according to our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect the annual average Henry Hub price in 2026 to decrease slightly as annual supply growth keeps pace with demand growth over the year. However, in 2027, we forecast demand growth will rise faster than supply growth, driven mainly by more feed gas demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage. We forecast annual average spot prices will decrease by 2% in 2026 and then increase by 33% in 2027.

In 2025, the wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $3.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), based on data from LSEG Data. The 2025 average Henry Hub natural gas spot price increased 56% from the 2024 annual average, which-when adjusted for inflation-was the lowest on record. On a daily basis, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price ranged from $2.65/MMBtu to $9.86/MMBtu, reflecting a narrower range of daily prices compared with the previous year.

The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $3.10 per gallon (gal) in 2025, $0.21/gal less than in 2024. This year marks the third consecutive year of declining nominal retail gasoline prices, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.

Crude oil prices generally declined in 2025 with supplies in the global crude oil market exceeding demand. Crude oil inventory builds in China muted some of the price decline. Events such as Israel's June 13 strikes on Iran and attacks between Russia and Ukraine targeting oil infrastructure periodically supported prices.

Below is a list featuring some of our most popular and favorite articles from 2025. We will resume regular Today in Energy publications on January 5, 2026. Thanks for your continued readership of Today in Energy.

Each month we publish estimates of key global oil market indicators that affect crude oil prices and movements in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Among the most important indicators for global crude oil markets are estimates of OPEC's effective crude oil production capacity and surplus production capacity, as well as any disruptions to liquid fuels production. Low surplus production capacity among OPEC countries can put upward pressure on crude oil prices in the event of unplanned supply disruptions or strong growth in global oil demand.

We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.

Critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and silicon, are vital for energy technologies, but most critical minerals markets are less transparent than mature energy markets, such as crude oil or coal. Like other energy markets, many supply-side and demand-side factors influence pricing for these energy-relevant critical minerals, but critical minerals supply chains contain numerous data gaps.

Higher average daily wholesale electricity prices between January and November 2025 may be improving the operational competitiveness of some natural gas- and coal-fired generators in the PJM Interconnection compared with the same period in 2024. PJM is the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. The spark and dark spreads, common metrics for estimating the profitability of natural gas- and coal-fired electric generators, have both increased over the past two years.

On December 1, 2025, the U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline fell below $3.00 per gallon (gal) to $2.98/gal, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. When adjusted for inflation, the December 1 price is the lowest average U.S. gasoline price since February 2021.

Global refinery margins for diesel have widened since late October and increased to their highest level all year, following refinery outages in Russia and in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russia's crude oil, leading to limited refinery production and a decreased global diesel supply. The impact was most pronounced in the Atlantic Basin, contributing to higher prices at the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp (ARA) shipping hub, a key benchmark for European prices, as well as at New York Harbor and the U.S. Gulf Coast. The higher global prices also affected prices in the United States because U.S. refiners can sell into both domestic and international markets.

U.S. electricity customers experienced an average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions in 2024, or nearly twice as many as the annual average experienced in the decade before, according to our Electric Power Annual 2024 report. Major events such as Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton accounted for 80% of the hours without electricity in 2024.

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

On the Monday before Thanksgiving, the U.S. retail price for regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.06 per gallon (gal), just 2 cents/gal higher than the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation, however, this year marks the lowest average gasoline price for the Monday before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend since 2020, when the pandemic disrupted gasoline demand and travel plans.

Although natural gas generation still provides more electricity than any other source in California, electricity generation from natural gas has decreased over the past several years while generation from solar has increased.

U.S. production of associated dissolved natural gas, also known as associated natural gas, increased by 6% last year, mirroring the growth in crude oil production from the Permian region. Associated natural gas production averaged 18.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, according to data from Enverus DrillingInfo.