Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, introduces Sen. Tammy Baldwin at her victory celebration Thursday. (Erik Gunn | Wisconsin Examiner)

In the midst of a barrage of absurd and appalling news pouring out of Washington, where President-elect Donald Trump keeps topping himself with new, unqualified cabinet appointments, Democrats are looking for hope in Wisconsin.

Two bright lights from our state made headlines after Nov. 5. U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin bucked the red wave to win a third term, and Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler was reported by Politico to be in the running to lead the national party. Baldwin and Wikler share an approach to politics that could help guide Democrats out of the wilderness. 

After losing the White House and failing to capture control of either the U.S. Senate or the House (not to mention the likelihood of two new Trump appointments on the U.S. Supreme Court that could create an enduring far-right supermajority), Democrats would do well to look to Wisconsin for a new approach to politics.

In Wisconsin, Trump’s margin of victory — 0.9% of the vote — was the narrowest among the seven swing states he carried. Baldwin, as she has consistently done, made inroads in rural, Republican-voting counties. And Wikler deployed an approach to organizing across rural and urban areas of the state that took no vote for granted.

While extreme polarization and losing touch with working-class swing-state voters are widely counted as prime reasons Democrats lost the 2024 election, Baldwin and Wikler have a recipe for addressing those problems.

“It’s a state where showing up, being present in all different communities, rejecting the kind of false choices that cable pundits might like to inflict on a state like Wisconsin, and rolling up your sleeves can make the difference,” Wikler told me back in 2019, shortly after he moved back to Wisconsin to reenergize the state party. At that moment, Republicans had just lost complete control over all three branches of state government, with the election of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in 2018. Since then, Wikler has overseen a scrappy fight to claw back power in a state where Republicans, until recently, still dominated politics.

Wikler followed his own advice, opening new field offices across the state. He remained tenaciously upbeat as he steered his party through the rough waters of the pandemic and, in addition to helping elect President Joe Biden and reelecting Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, helped shepherd in a new liberal majority on the state Supreme Court that ended the worst partisan gerrymander in the nation, which had protected a wildly disproportionate Republican legislative majority. 

I was impressed by Wikler’s optimism back in 2019, when the gerrymandered maps seemed insurmountable. 

He pointed to grassroots organizers all over Wisconsin who were building the case for fair maps, and “getting every elected group of human beings in the state to pass resolutions condemning gerrymandering.”

“All of that needs to clearly lead to electoral accountability for anyone who smashes the idea of representative democracy in the state,” Wikler said at the time. It sounded wildly optimistic. Yet here we are.

Commenting on the eternal debate about whether Democrats need to drive their base to turn out or persuade disaffected centrist Republicans and independents to vote for Democrats, Wikler told me, “in Wisconsin we have to do both.”

“The thing I’m frustrated by every day is the idea that you can’t fight for both white working class voters and voters of color,” he added. “Guess what? There are people of all races in the working class. And all of them want schools and jobs and safe communities and air they can breathe. And none of them like the effects of Trump’s actual policies—even if some of them think they might like Trump as a guy.”

That philosophy is very similar to the politics practiced by Tammy Baldwin, who consistently amazes pundits by winning rural and working class voters even though she is an out lesbian with a strongly progressive voting record. Listening carefully to her constituents and delivering for them, whether through the provision she wrote into the Affordable Care Act that lets children stay on their parents’ insurance until they turn 26, or federal investments in Wisconsin farming and manufacturing, or “Buy America” rules, Baldwin connects with her constituents across the ideological divide. 

As Baldwin puts it, “People across Wisconsin want solutions to their challenges and are not all that interested in Republican versus Democrat—they’re interested in who you’ll stand up to, and who you’ll stand up for.”

Wikler agrees: “The key thing to understand is that Wisconsin voters are less centrist than they are conflicted. There’s a populist streak that has both left-wing and right-wing flavors that runs through the state. And the fundamental question that voters are asking is: ‘Is this person on my side?’”

That’s a clarifying vision that could lead Democratic politicians and voters toward a brighter day. 

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Claudia Kline, an organizer for Our Voice, Our Vote Arizona, speaks to a group of canvassers before they set out to knock on doors in 106-degree weather in Phoenix on Thursday, Sept. 26. The organization is part of a coalition that vowed to knock on 3 million doors by November. (Gloria Rebecca Gomez | Arizona Mirror)

Editor’s note: This five-day series explores the priorities of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as they consider the upcoming presidential election. With the outcome expected to be close, these “swing states” may decide the future of the country.

As former President Donald Trump worked to scuttle a bipartisan border deal in Congress because it threatened to derail his campaign’s focus on immigration, Republicans in Arizona unveiled a plan to empower local officials to jail and deport migrants, decrying the federal government’s lack of solutions.

“Arizona is in a crisis,” state Senate President Warren Petersen said in late January. “This is directly due to the negligent inaction of the Biden administration.”

What followed were months of GOP lawmakers in Arizona making use of Trump’s border security rhetoric, employing xenophobic language to cast immigrants and asylum-seekers as criminals. But there was strident opposition to the plan, too, from many Latino and immigrant Arizonans who traveled to the state Capitol to protest the legislation.

Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer starkly different plans for the future of the 11 million people who live in the United States without legal status. Harris, in a bid to stave off accusations that she’s soft on the border, has sought to establish a firm security stance. To that end, she has vowed to bring back and sign the torpedoed bipartisan border deal.

On the campaign trail, Trump has taken a far more hawkish approach, promising mass deportations. He has offered few details, other than that he would be willing to involve the U.S. National Guard. President Joe Biden, Trump and other recent presidents have deployed the National Guard or military troops to support Border Patrol actions, but not in direct law enforcement roles.

Immigration has consistently ranked high among voter concerns nationwide, following heightened political rhetoric and a record-breaking number of unlawful border crossings in late 2023. Those numbers have since plummeted to a three-year low, but the U.S. border with Mexico remains a key talking point for Republican politicians.

But immigration is a far more complex topic than border security alone, and strategists may be miscalculating by failing to consider some key voters and their nuanced perspectives, recent polling shows.

Growing populations of new and first-generation citizens in the swing states — with the power to sway elections — are transforming demographics and voter concerns.

In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed the legislation that would have allowed local law enforcement to usurp federal authority on immigration, but Republicans repackaged it as a ballot initiative called the “Secure the Border Act.” In a state that Biden won by fewer than 11,000 votes four years ago, and where political strategists anticipate high voter turnout, the ballot measure serves as a test of whether the GOP’s immigration position will drive people to the polls in a swing state.

While many Republicans hope the immigration issue boosts their chances in down-ballot races, progressive organizations are working to mobilize voters in opposition through canvassing and voter registration drives.

Living United for Change in Arizona was established in the aftermath of the state’s controversial “show me your papers” law — SB 1070 — passed 14 years ago by Republican lawmakers. LUCHA Chief of Staff Abril Gallardo derided this year’s Secure the Border Act as the latest iteration of that law.

“Arizonans are sick of Republicans trying to bring back the SB 1070 era of separating families, mass deportations and children in detention centers,” she said. “We’re here to say, ‘Not on our watch.’”

The ballot measure has been widely criticized as greenlighting discrimination. Among other provisions, it would make it a state crime for migrants to cross the southern border anywhere except a legal port of entry and punish first-time offenders with six months in jail. Local police officers would be authorized to carry out arrests based on suspicion of illegal entry, and Arizona judges would be empowered to issue orders of deportation, undermining court rulings that have concluded that enforcing immigration law is the sole purview of the federal government.

Gallardo said that LUCHA is focused on engaging with voters to ensure the proposal fails. The organization is part of a coalition of advocacy groups committed to knocking on more than 3 million doors before November.

“They can try to ignore us, but come Election Day and beyond, they will hear us, they will see us, and they will feel the strength of our movement,” she said.

An August UnidosUS and BSP Research survey asked Latino voters in Arizona about their top priorities on several issues related to immigration policy. The results show strong support for protecting longtime residents from deportation and offering them a path to citizenship — along with cracking down on human smugglers and drug traffickers. Policies centered on building a wall or mass deportation ranked near the bottom. In recent years, Latino voters in the state have helped reject virulently anti-immigrant candidates.

Latino voting strength

In 2020, Latinos made up about 20% of the state’s electorate, and they largely favored Biden over Trump. Then, two years later, a record-breaking number of Latinos voted in an election that saw Democrats win statewide offices. Today, 1 in 4 Arizona voters is Latino, and a new poll from Univision estimates that more than 600,000 will cast their ballots in the state’s November election.

The Grand Canyon State is far from the only swing state with both impactful Latino and new-citizen voting blocs.

Still, campaigns might be ignoring these voters. The UnidosUS poll showed 51% of Latino voters in Georgia hadn’t been contacted by either party or any campaign, even though 56% say they’re sure they’ll vote.

“This is, I think, a wake-up call for both parties to reach out into the Latino community,” said BSP senior analyst Stephen Nuño-Perez in a Georgia Recorder story. “There’s still not a lot of education out there on why Latinos should be voting for one party or the other.”

The numbers hovered right around there in other swing states. In Pennsylvania, that was true for 50% of the people polled. In North Carolina, it was 49%. In Nevada, 53%. In each case, a higher percentage said they plan to vote.

Influence grows in dairy country

The number of Latino voters in Wisconsin is a fraction of the electorate that lives in states closer to the U.S.-Mexico border but no less impactful. There are roughly 180,000 eligible Latino voters who call the Badger State home. Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 by a margin of about 21,000 votes, less than 1 percentage point.

Christine Neumann-Ortiz is the executive director of Voces de la Frontera, a civil and workers rights organization that advocates on behalf of immigrants. She said that over time, the Latino vote has become increasingly sought after by politicians looking to gain office.

“If you don’t get it, you don’t win it,” she said.

Neumann-Ortiz said that the rise of the Latino electorate has translated into political power. The group has been a longtime backer of driver’s licenses for Wisconsinites without full citizenship status, and occupational licenses for recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, a federal policy that grants temporary work permits and protection from deportation to people who arrived in the country as minors.

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia allow people without citizenship status to obtain driver’s licenses. And just 12 give DACA recipients the opportunity to obtain medical or legal licenses.

Legislation in Wisconsin to open up access to either license was blocked by the GOP legislative majority, though the movement behind the proposals drew support from top officials, including Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who backed driver’s licenses for all as a policy priority last year. Influential lobbying organizations, such as the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation and the Dairy Business Association, both of which lean conservative, also threw their weight behind the push for universal driver’s licenses.

Neumann-Ortiz attributes that support to the fact that immigrants make up a large part of the state’s dairy and agricultural industries. And in rural areas where dairy operations and farms are located, public transportation is sparse. United Migrant Opportunity Services, a Milwaukee-based farmworker advocacy organization, estimates that as much as 40% of the state’s dairy workers are immigrants. Other estimates indicate they contribute 80% of the labor on dairy farms.

Despite being over 1,000 miles away from the U.S.-Mexico border, immigration and border security are key issues for Wisconsinites, and their positions appear mixed. In a September survey from Marquette University’s Law School, 49% said they agreed with deporting all immigrants who have lived in the country for years, have jobs and no criminal record, while 51% opposed it.

Newly minted citizens stand to break new electoral ground

Laila Martin Garcia moved to the United States with her husband and infant son eight years ago. November will be the first time she casts her ballot for a U.S. presidential candidate since she became a naturalized citizen two years ago in Pennsylvania, and she’s elated.

“The main reason for me to become a citizen was to vote,” she said. “You know, this is home. This is where my husband is, where my son is being raised, and I wanted to make sure that I was using my voice in any way possible.”

She’s part of another segment of the electorate that will have a chance to respond in the voting booth to the election-year emphasis on immigration: newly naturalized voters. In fiscal year 2023, just over 878,000 immigrants became naturalized U.S. citizens, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. That number represents a slight decline from the previous fiscal year, when a little more than 969,000 people achieved naturalization –— the highest number of new citizens in a decade.

Newly naturalized voters can close the gaps in swing state races, according to Nancy Flores, who serves as the deputy director of the National Partnership for New Americans, a coalition of immigrant and refugee rights organizations.

Every presidential election year, the coalition partners with local organizations to assist eligible immigrants as they embark on the naturalization process and help newly naturalized citizens register to vote. New citizens, Flores said, are a great investment, because once they’ve made a commitment to vote, they will likely continue to do so. And naturalized voters appear to cast their ballots at higher rates than U.S.-born citizens. In the 2020 election, about 66% of the general electorate turned out to vote, compared with nearly 87% of naturalized voters surveyed by the organization.

This year appears on track to repeat that trend: As many as 97.3% of naturalized voters residing in states polled by the National Partnership for New Americans — including in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania — reported that they plan to vote this fall.

“For a lot of folks, reaching the point of citizenship is really a lifetime achievement,” Flores said. “And we see that folks really don’t take that lightly.”

And while Flores noted that naturalized citizens don’t fit one single voter profile, most of them do share an immigrant background and so are sympathetic on the issue.

“New American voters are not a monolith,” she said. “Folks that are naturalized are doctors, professors. We have folks that are naturalized that are picking the fruit that we eat. It really runs the gamut, but the common thread is the immigrant experience.”

A poll conducted by the organization found that naturalized voters share many of the same concerns as other U.S. voters, including worries about inflation and the economy. But, Flores added, candidates who are looking to attract naturalized voters are likely to be most successful with the demographic group when they present a positive view of immigration.

“Looking at immigration as an asset to our country, looking at how it can benefit the economy, looking at how we can provide pathways [to citizenship] that are humane — those things resonated with voters,” she said.

Similarly, Martin Garcia’s experiences as an immigrant have colored her views as a voter. Immigration reform, she said, is at the top of her priorities. Originally from Barcelona, Spain, Martin Garcia arrived in the U.S. in the middle of Trump’s first campaign, and she said she saw firsthand what his anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies wrought.

In her work as an advocate, she frequently helped families torn apart by deportations, and in her personal life, while trying to share her language and culture with her son, she dealt with nativist hostility. During one incident at the grocery store, while she was helping her toddler identify items in Spanish, a stranger accosted her.

“I remember he came up to me and said, ‘We’re in America, speak American,’” she recalled. “Now that I think of that moment, I have so many things to say to that person. But at that moment, I was so scared. I just took my child, left my cart there with half of my groceries, and left the shop.”

Today, she recalls that incident, and the rallies and protests during Trump’s presidency, as catalysts for her civic engagement. Martin Garcia said she views the 2024 election as an opportunity to look out for the immigrant community’s needs.

“We deserve to thrive, and we will be thinking about that,” she said. “We have to make sure that our communities have the right to thrive in this election.”

This story has been updated with additional photographs and data visualization graphics.

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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Lafayette County Democratic volunteer irene kendall. Shapiro campaigned in rural Wisconsin for Sen. Tammy Baldwin's reelection Saturday. | Wisconsin Examiner photo

Two-term U.S Sen. Tammy Baldwin got a boost Saturday from a fellow Democrat, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, in her tight reelection race against Republican challenger Eric Hovde. The incumbent senator from Wisconsin and the governor — who attracted national media attention when he was recently considered as a possible vice presidential candidate — toured rural Richland and Lafayette counties, meeting with farmers and small town residents in sparsely populated areas of the state. In both counties, most voters chose former President Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections. But they also voted for Baldwin by more than 10-point margins in 2018. 

The night before embarking on the rural Wisconsin tour, Baldwin spoke from the same stage as Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to a cheering crowd of 10,000 people who packed the Dane County Coliseum, a frequent venue for rock concerts in deep-blue Madison.

Since both population growth and voter turnout are sky-high in Dane County, Democrats are focusing heavily on the area as key to winning elections in this closely-divided swing state. But Baldwin, like Shapiro, who made inroads with rural voters in Pennsylvania, makes a point of campaigning in rural and suburban areas that lean Republican. 

Appealing to voters in areas where other Democrats don’t often show up is a big part of both politicians’ formula for success. In their joint, rural campaign stops in Wisconsin they modeled an approach to politics that refuses to take the urban-rural political divide for granted, and that reconnects with voters the rest of their party has often overlooked. That approach dovetails with the Harris campaign’s effort to appeal to disaffected Republicans and to present the Democratic party as a “big tent.”

Lafayette is among the most rural counties in Wisconsin, and one of only two counties in the state that doesn’t have a traffic light, according to U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, a Democrat, who represents the area in Congress. Voters there chose Trump by 9 percentage points in 2016 and by 13.7 points in 2020 — but Baldwin won the county by 10.6 points in 2018. 

“It really does feel like home,” Shapiro told the Examiner, standing outside a big, red barn at the Iowa and Lafayette County Democrats’ picnic. “There’s a sensibility, and there’s a desire from the people I’ve met to just have elected officials work together to get stuff done,” he said.

Getting stuff done — Shapiro’s trademark phrase — was the theme of his speech endorsing Baldwin’s 2024 reelection bid. He touted her work to bring agriculture innovation grants as well as her work on rural broadband and expanding health care access.

In her own speech at the county picnic, Baldwin also focused on specific accomplishments. She told a story about meeting with executives of a handful of medical device companies and “shaming” them into agreeing to set a cap of $35 per month on the price of inhalers, after hearing from constituents who were struggling to pay hundreds of dollars per month to treat their asthma. 

While Shapiro and Baldwin described themselves as pragmatists, they also espoused progressive values, denouncing Republican “extremism” and threats to democracy and vowing to work to claw back abortion rights after the demise of Roe v. Wade. 

Baldwin warned that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which held that there is no fundamental constitutional right to privacy, poses a threat to other precedents besides Roe, including protections for access to contraception as well as interracial and same-sex marriage. She described the skepticism she encountered from journalists who did not believe she would be able to get enough Republican votes to pass the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified federal recognition of same-sex and interracial marriages. 

“I said, ‘Just you watch,’ ” she told the audience of rural Democrats, adding she was sure at least 10 of her Republican colleagues had a loved one who would be hurt if same-sex marriage was overturned. In the end she found 12 Republicans to join all 50 Democrats in the Senate to pass the bill.

Baldwin added that she is proud to be the lead author of the Women’s Health Protection Act, “which would restore Roe, make it a part of our national laws, and tell states like Wisconsin and Texas and Florida and Idaho that you can’t pass a whole bunch of laws at the state level that interfere with those rights and freedoms.”

“I don’t have 60 votes yet, but I do have a plan,” she told her rural constituents. “That plan involves all of you working super hard to get me reelected to the United States Senate.”

Democrats are working harder than ever in Lafayette County, said Democratic Party Chair Nancy Fisker, who added that the group has doubled its membership in the last year and a half after opening a new office, with help from the state party. The chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Ben Wikler, also gave an impassioned speech at the picnic. A prolific fundraiser, he has helped to open new Democratic Party offices all over the state.

Still, county residents are often afraid to put up yard signs or otherwise publicly identify themselves as Democrats, Fisker said. “We have to be aware of it, and we have to not push our agenda at people who don’t want to hear it,” she said. “We don’t just take a bunch of Democrats to a restaurant in Darlington to have a meeting unless we talk to the owner first, or they’ll throw us out on our ear. It’s serious.”

This year, after pushing for a long time, county volunteers are putting up more yard signs. And, after opening the new party office, “We started to have some successes,” Fisker said. Lafayette County voted for liberal state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose victory over conservative former Justice Dan Kelly changed the ideological balance on the court. Most voters in the county also rejected a pair of constitutional amendments drafted by the Republican-controlled Legislature that would have taken away the governor’s power to give out federal emergency relief funds. Fisker attributes both results to her group’s stepped-up voter education effort.

Fisker said she meets a lot of split-ticket voters. “I have a couple of friends who just said, ‘Oh, well, you know, I’m going to vote for Baldwin, but I don’t know about that Harris person. So then there’s lots of conversations, and it’s your neighbors.”

“We care about reproductive rights. We care about the environment. We care about ensuring that our rights are not taken away. But you have to come to us in the way that we want to engage with you,” said Lafayette County Democrat irene kendall (she spells her name in all lower-case letters), who helped organize the event. She credited Baldwin and Pocan with coming to the area frequently and listening to people. “They understand what happens in the rural communities, because they’re out there, right? And so we know we matter to them. So showing up is a huge part of it, I think.” She has relatives, she said, who split their tickets, voting Republican in most races, but making and exception for Baldwin.

Steve Pickett, now retired, described himself as the first Democratic county clerk elected in Lafayette County since Reconstruction. He agreed that Democrats could do a lot better just by showing up.

“In rural Wisconsin, probably more so than in the cities, people want to know who the candidate is,” he said. “It’s hard for people to say, ‘Well, yeah I want to vote for someone I don’t even know.’”

The working theory for a long time has been that you have to be a Republican to win in Lafayette County, he said. Now that’s starting to change. “You can be a Democrat and win, but you have to work at it,” he added.

“It isn’t that it’s so Republican,” he said of the area. “It’s that we haven’t given people a reason to vote for the Democrats.” Baldwin and Pocan “gave you reasons” in their speeches, he added.

“We have to get the party to understand,” Pickett said, “that these are the races that are going to make them, as opposed to spending money in the really safe districts.”

Shapiro and Baldwin both seem to understand that point — and not just on the state level.

Shapiro told the rural Democrats in Wisconsin the same thing he said he tells voters in Pennsylvania: Because of the way national elections are structured, as swing state voters they have enormous power.  “You’ve got the power to shape the future,” he said, “not just of this state, but of this entire country.”

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