A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on Sept. 25 in San Anselmo, California. Grocery prices rose 0.4% in November, according to the Consumer Price Index, leading to tougher times for many during the holiday season. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

A rise in food prices makes for a less than merry holiday season.

Grocery prices rose 0.4% in November, according to the Consumer Price Index, released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Eggs made one of the biggest jumps at 8.2% over the month, and 37.5% over the past year, providing challenges for people trying to eat a somewhat cheaper protein and families cooking holiday foods such as sugar cookies and jelly doughnuts.

Although the increase in food prices has moderated a bit from past years, they are still more than 20% higher than they were before the pandemic, according to David Ortega, at Michigan State University.

“It was a key issue in the election in terms of people really feeling that sticker shock at the grocery store,” said Ortega, a food economist.

President-elect Donald Trump vowed to bring down prices during his campaign and blamed the Biden administration for how they reached this point. But in an interview with TIME published this week, Trump said he does not believe his presidency would be a failure if grocery prices do not come down.

“It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he said.

Price changes to understand before you set the holiday table

The increase in grocery, or food at home prices, was partly driven by the rise in egg and beef prices, Ortega said. He said the price of holiday roast has been affected by drought and high feed prices. This year, the inventory of beef cattle was the smallest beef herd since 1951.

“On eggs, the story continues to be bird flu together with increased consumer demand given the holiday season,” he said following Wednesday’s release of the latest Consumer Price Index. “And for beef the issue is supply — high input costs and decisions that beef producers made a couple of years back when they were facing drought and high feed prices which has reduced beef supply, and this in turn is affecting beef prices.”

The latest food price numbers presented a mixed bag for holiday shoppers looking to bake treats this month. Flour and prepared four mixes fell 1% and bread decreased 1.3%, while sugar and sweets rose 0.2%, and butter ticked up 1.5%.

Oranges, including the popular stocking stuffers tangerines, fell 1.8% in the latest Consumer Price Index report.

The rise in cost of eating your meals at home compared to the rise in cost of eating out is also getting narrower, with the gap in inflation between restaurant menu prices and grocery year-over-year prices being the narrowest it has been since May 2023, according to Supermarket News. Food at home in previous reports rose 0.2% and 0.4% compared to 0.2% and 0.3% for the past two food away from home reports.

Are companies profiting off of uncertain times?

Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the Groundwork Collective, a left-of-center economic think tank, said that just a few seed producers, meatpackers, and grocers dominate the food industry, which is a key part of the story of what drives grocery prices. This hurts lower-income shoppers the hardest. Oklahoma, Iowa, and Arkansas are some of the states most dominated by a single grocer, such as Walmart or Hy-Vee.

“Across the food and grocery industry, we have a sector that is deeply consolidated,” Mabud said.  … And so when you have big companies controlling such large chunks of the market, we know that they have used things like inflation, things like supply chain shocks to jack up prices far beyond what their input costs to justify.”

Mabud said that when there is this level of market concentration, companies can signal to each other in earnings calls that they are going to start raising prices.

“If you know that your only other competitors are also raising prices, there’s kind of no reason for you to try to undercut them if you both hold giant shares of a market,” she said.

An economic paper published this year found that companies are able to coordinate price increases around cost shocks and increase profits from these events. Mabud said the holidays provide plenty of opportunity for the food industry to raise prices on things people ordinarily don’t buy and don’t have a price comparison for during a less in-demand season.

“Grocers and the food industry kind of know that they know that they have more information about the underlying cost of a good than a consumer who only comes to buy the Christmas ham once a year. And so they can take advantage of that,” she said.

An unhappy new year for grocery shoppers

Economists are watching out for how the next administration will impact food prices.

Trump’s promise to impose heavy tariffs on the U.S.’s biggest trading partners – Mexico, Canada and China – are expected to drive up the cost of everything, including groceries.

Products the U.S. can’t produce year round, like fruit and coffee, will be affected, Ortega said.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of whether these tariffs are really going to be implemented or are they a negotiating tool? But that creates a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “Even that amount of uncertainty can lead to a rise in costs as companies prepare for the potential of these tariffs taking place.”

Trump’s expected policy of mass deportation of immigrants will also affect the agriculture industry, in addition to the major human rights implications.

“If there’s a mass deportation that is a shock to the labor supply and the agricultural sector. And that will lead to an increase in costs as producers and companies have to offer higher wages to attract enough labor. Ultimately that gets passed down to the consumer in the form of higher prices,” Ortega said.

Mabud is also concerned that expected tariffs could mean companies take advantage of the policy change well beyond the actual financial impact to their business.

“It’s a policy change where consumers don’t necessarily know how much the price of an avocado is going up because of a tariff versus a supply chain issue versus the grocery store just wanting to increase the price,” she said.

Patricia “Pogo” Overmeyer, 65, who works as a lawyer in Arizona and lives with her retired husband, said she has always been focused on how to save money on groceries. But she said she has become even more thrifty since inflation worsened.

She said she’s been using more meatless meals and stocks up on holiday food all year round when prices are low, some of which she freezes and cans.

“Once I retire, our income will not be as high,” she said, “Most likely I will forgo some foods or make substitutions. It’s anyone’s guess as to what we will be paying for groceries.”

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Boeing workers gather on a picket line near the entrance to a Boeing facility on Oct. 24 in Seattle. The strike ended with a deal in November. Those workers returning to the job factored into growth reported in the latest labor report. (Photo by David Ryder/Getty Images)

The economy added 227,000 jobs in November, making for a strong jobs report despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Although the labor market has cooled this year, the Trump administration stands to inherit a fairly healthy labor market, with decent job growth across many sectors.

The number of jobs was bolstered by the return of striking workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing rose by 32,000 jobs. Boeing machinists who went on strike in September seeking higher pay and better retirement benefits reached a deal in November.

The agency also revised up the number of jobs added in the October and September reports by 56,000 jobs combined.

Although the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%, the economy is looking strong, particularly when you look at gross domestic product, said Louise Sheiner, with the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.

“It’s been remarkably strong. If you look at what the Congressional Budget Office projected the level of real GDP before the pandemic, it’s higher now. We’ve just had a really strong economy,” said Sheiner, who focuses on fiscal policy.

Although she said the labor market has been slowing a little, it’s still healthy.

Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said the three-month average of job growth at 173,000 jobs shows a fairly strong labor market.

Employment in health care and government, including state government employment, continued to add jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 53,000 jobs and food services and drinking places added 29,000 jobs.

Gould said she is keeping an eye on the employment-to-population ratio, a measure of workers employed versus the working-age population. The measure is down 0.6 percentage point over the year.

“Let’s pay attention to that and see where that goes,” she said. “We were at a pretty nice high this summer that has come down a bit.”

Economists will also keep an eye on demographic data changes in the next jobs report. The unemployment rate for Black men jumped from 5.7% to 6% and the unemployment rate for Black women increased from 4.9% to 6%. Economists and policy experts said that although they will be watching these numbers, they don’t think the higher unemployment rate for Black people will necessarily continue. The month-to-month data can be volatile and may not point to a broader trend, they said.

“The Black unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% which is the highest since March and then looking at Black women, we saw their unemployment rate jumped to 6% which is the highest that we’ve seen in 2.5 years,” said Clara Wilson, senior policy analyst at the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-of-center economic think tank. “However, the spike in Black unemployment is something to always keep a track of because if we continue to see a rise in Black unemployment that typically is a warning signal canary in the coal mine that there could be further weakening in the labor market down the line.”

Retail jobs fell by 28,000, with a loss of 15,000 in general merchandise and 4,000 in electronics and appliance retailers.

“I’m not particularly concerned about it because it can be due to the fact that it was just a late Thanksgiving this year, so that holiday hiring may not have happened during the reference period in the same way,” Gould said.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, the same as October, and 4% over the past year. Although some economists say the Federal Reserve would like to see wages come down to help it meet its 2% target for inflation, Wilson said higher wages are an indication that workers are benefiting from the current economy. She said she’s worried that the Trump administration will undo some of the economic progress she said has been made from the Biden administration’s major legislation.

“It’s really important to remember that real people are behind the data and the strong labor market propels more opportunities for workers and ensures families have higher wages and that leads to a stronger economy. Policymakers should take those lessons that we’ve learned from those strong public investments and sustain that progress,” Wilson said.

A ‘For Sale’ sign is seen on March 19 in Austin, Texas. Policymakers are watching for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Americans hand over a huge chunk of their paycheck for a roof over their heads. Policymakers are looking out for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Housing accounted for 32.9% of consumers’ spending in 2023, making it the largest share of consumer expenditures, according to the most recently available data Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that was an increase of 5.7% from 2022.

This year, many Americans still struggle to find affordable housing, whether they choose to rent or buy a home.

There’s a lot economists and housing advocates still don’t know about what to expect from a second Trump term. It’s unclear which campaign promises will find their way into administrative rules or  legislation, even with a Republican trifecta – the GOP will control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

But policy experts, researchers and economic analysts are looking at Trump’s record, his recent remarks on housing, and  Project 2025 – the conservative Heritage Foundation’s 900-page plan to overhaul the executive branch – for a glimpse of what may lie ahead.

Tariffs and the cost of building homes

Trump has spoken frequently of his proposed 60% tariff on goods from China, which he has said would create more manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Tariffs could be as high as 20% on goods from other countries.

But housing economists and other experts say that could be bad news for building more affordable housing.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company, said tariffs are one of her main concerns about the effects of a second Trump term.

“One of the biggest concerns is not just lumber [costs], but the overall cost of materials, which have been going up,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company.

Construction material prices have risen 38.8% since February 2020, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors’ analysis of October Producer Price Index data.

Kurt Paulsen, professor of urban planning in the department of planning and landscape architecture at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, said building costs are already high from tariffs on Canadian lumber that Trump first imposed and that the Biden administration kept and increased.

“It used to be in construction that you would get a bid from a contractor or a subcontractor or supplier and it would be good for 60 days. Now, the bids are good for like five days because you don’t know where prices are going to be,” he said.

Immigration policy and its effect on construction labor

Trump tweeted on Nov. 18 that he is planning to use the declaration of a national emergency as part of his mass  deportation plan.

Besides disrupting lives, Trump’s plan  could have effects on what it costs to build housing, Hepp said.

“There is the cost of labor as well, if we do indeed have all these deportations. That’s a big, big concern,” she said. “A large share of labor in the construction industry obviously comes from immigrants. That is a huge issue for new construction and particularly new construction as it relates to affordable housing.”

Foreign-born construction workers made up 3 million of the 11.9 million people who work in the construction industry in 2023, according to the latest American Community Survey data.

Trump’s ‘not in my backyard’  rhetoric

The former president hasn’t always been clear on where he stands with zoning regulations and making way for more affordable housing in a wide variety of neighborhoods.

In a July Bloomberg interview, Trump spoke critically of zoning regulations and said that they drive up housing costs. But Trump also has a record of tending toward a “not in my backyard,” or NIMBY, approach to housing that maintained some of these zoning regulations. The Trump administration moved to roll back an Obama-era regulation that tied HUD funding to assessing and reducing housing discrimination in neighborhoods.

“He’ll talk about reducing regulations on developers, but he’ll also use this NIMBYism talking about protecting suburbs from low-income housing and you really can’t have it both ways,” said Sarah Saadian, senior vice president of public policy and field organizing at the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Paulsen said Project 2025 embraces a pushback against anti-NIMBY approaches to expand multi-family housing.

“What I read in the Project 2025 documents is a clear statement that says every local community and neighborhood should be able to choose the housing it wants to accept or not. The challenge of that is that if every community in every neighborhood can veto housing, then we just don’t get enough housing and prices go up and prices and rents go up,” he said.

A more punitive approach to homelessness 

Last year, homelessness rose to its highest level recorded since the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development began collecting this information in 2007. The ending of pandemic safety nets that gave some households better financial stability and a lack of affordable housing supply contributed to the number of unhoused people, the report explained.

Trump has been outspoken on his view that homeless people should be “off our streets.” The president-elect has also proposed putting unhoused people with mental health issues into “mental institutions.”

“There’s a movement that I think is largely reflected in Project 2025 that says, actually, cities need more coercive policy tools to enforce public order and to require that someone who’s camping take a shelter placement even if they don’t want it,” Paulsen said.

Saadian said that given the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Grants Pass v. Johnson, which makes it easier to criminalize unhoused populations for sleeping outside, she’s worried about a changing political environment where policies that prioritize stable housing over policing fall out of favor.

“I think all of that just shows a culture shift in the political dynamic here that we’re definitely worried about,” she said.

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A Connecticut Department of Transportation crew works on an Interstate 95 bridge on Nov. 05, 2023, in Westport, Connecticut. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut earlier this month could mean lower borrowing costs for state and local governments and bring changes for housing development, tax revenue and road, water and sewer construction. (By John Moore/Getty Images)

The Federal Reserve’s second consecutive key rate cut could mean more than just lower borrowing costs for the average consumer — state and local governments stand to benefit, too.

Lower interest rates may bring changes for housing development, tax revenue, debt refinancing and bread-and-butter projects like roads, water and sewer, state and local government officials told States Newsroom.

The Fed’s cut earlier this month followed an aggressive rate-hiking campaign to beat down inflation, and it came years after the last time the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates. Key borrowing rates now stand at 4.5 to 4.75%, and inflation has cooled to 2.7%. Economists expect another rate cut in December.

“On average, the lower the interest rates are expected to help stock market returns if historical trends hold,” said Liz Farmer, who focuses on budgets, fiscal distress, tax policy and pensions at The Pew Charitable Trusts. “So generally, you would expect a more positive effect on your average pension portfolio that has a good amount invested in equities.”

This change means states and localities will have lower borrowing costs, which will make it easier to make big long-term changes in infrastructure, to see higher sales tax collections as a result of more spending, and it is likely to result in better pension performance in an environment where stocks tend to respond to lower rates, fiscal policy experts at Pew say.

In 2021 and 2022, states had record high revenue growth due in part to federal pandemic aid and the impact of the federal aid on workers and businesses, according to Pew. But that kind of growth was unsustainable.

Recently, nearly all states have entered into a slower revenue growth environment, said Brian Sigritz, director of state fiscal studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers, a professional membership group for budget and finance officers. More than three dozen states had a fall in revenue in fiscal year 2023,  Pew’s analysis found. At least five states experienced budget shortfalls in fiscal year 2024, the think tank explained.

“States overall are remaining in a strong fiscal position. It’s just that we’re starting to see slower growth compared to what we did see for those a couple of years after the start of the pandemic,” he said. “That was really a unique set of circumstances where we had the additional federal aid provided by all the different COVID relief bills and at the same time where state revenue growth was growing so strongly, and that led to very strong growth in tax collections.”

Sigritz said that states, which have to almost entirely use borrowing for infrastructure and capital projects, will benefit from lower borrowing costs as a result of the Fed rate cuts.

David Schmiedicke, finance director for the city of Madison, Wisconsin’s finance department, said he’s hopeful that the lower cost of borrowing will reduce the cost of public infrastructure when seeking construction bids.

“We’re seeing a lot of development, even with the higher rates. Madison is an attractive place to live. People from around the country are moving here,” he said.

Rebecca Fleury, the city manager for Battle Creek, Michigan, said interest rates affect key services the public relies on, including fire departments.

“[Interest rates] have an impact on our ability as a city of 52,000 to provide the full services that we do. Every little bit impacts us, because we have to buy fire trucks,” she said.“If there’s a decrease in one of our three largest revenue sources, we feel it.”

But there are both pluses and minuses to the cut in the federal funds rate, Schmiedicke said, as it brings down the interest income states receive.

“It probably will reduce the amount of investment income the city receives on its cash balances. We saw that go up dramatically in 2022 and 2023, so that’ll probably come down as the Fed cuts rates,” Schmiedicke said.

Different tax policies also change how states and localities experience the Fed rate cuts.

H.D. Palmer, deputy director for external affairs and principal spokesman on fiscal and financial issues for California Gov. Gavin  Newsom, said that the lower interest rates are overall positive for the nation’s largest state because of the concentration of technology firms there, its progressive tax rate, and the taxing of capital gains and stock options as personal income.

“When the markets are doing well, those types of firms that are concentrated in California do well and in consequence, our revenues do well,” Palmer said.

The Alabama Department of Finance told States Newsroom that it is closely following the Fed’s actions as it “closely follows all actions that could impact our citizens and the State’s revenues.”

But the state agency said it may take some time to see any of the effects of recent rate cuts.

“While recent changes in the federal funds rate may lead to increased state revenues, absent a significant change in the rate, the impact on revenues and expenditures would not likely be seen immediately. We will continue to monitor and assess all economic indicators to ensure steady, sustainable, conservative growth for the benefit of all Alabamians,” the department said in a statement.

Schmiedicke said Wisconsin is very reliant on property taxes because although state law allows a statewide sales tax and counties can impose a 0.5% sales tax, cities other than Milwaukee have not been able to do so. The state also has strict limits on property tax increases.

“We could see more development in the city and that could definitely help with our overall property tax base, as well as if it results in more travel and room taxes,” he said.

As states and localities wrestle with how to provide more affordable housing, with nearly half of renters having to spend more than 30% of their income on housing, lower interest rates could help spur more building. Fleury said the costs of loans and labor and materials has been “astronomical,” making it hard for developers to build. Although she said Battle Creek would love to take advantage of Low Income Housing Tax Credits, it’s challenging to fund projects.

“I think that a lower interest rate could really help us get farther along in our housing plans,” she said “If you can’t get your project to pencil within what they’re able to fund or finance, we just never make the list.”

Despite lower interest rates creating a better environment for affordable rent and homes, states will likely continue to spend a lot of energy on housing programs, Sigritz said. Governors’ budget proposals and state of the state speeches have prioritized affordable housing more and more in the past few years, he said, and he expects this to continue.

“Housing affordability is not an issue that’s going to go away overnight, and there’s still a need for more housing,” Sigritz said. “It takes a while to build additional housing even in the lower-interest environment.”

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