A sign in an Indianapolis store shown on Aug. 1, 2023, says SNAP benefits are accepted. A new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office projects 2.4 million fewer people per month will participate in the program under Republicans’ tax cut and spending law. (Photo by Getty Images)

About 10 million people, mostly Medicaid recipients, will lose access to health insurance and 2.4 million fewer people per month will participate in a federal food aid program under Republicans’ massive tax cut and spending law, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday.

Median-income U.S. households will see a small overall gain in resources from President Donald Trump and the GOP’s “big, beautiful” law, CBO said.

But major changes to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, mean Americans at the bottom of the income distribution will see a net loss of benefits, CBO said.

The law, which both chambers of Congress passed without any Democratic votes and Trump signed July 4, significantly narrows eligibility for Medicaid and SNAP.

Those changes, even combined with federal tax cuts, will lead to a roughly 3% drop in resources over the next nine years for households in the bottom tenth of earners, the CBO analysis said.

“The changes in resources will not be evenly distributed among households,” the congressional scorekeeper said. “The agency estimates that, in general, resources will decrease for households toward the bottom of the income distribution, whereas resources will increase for households in the middle and toward the top of the income distribution.”

The projection shows households in the bottom two-tenths of the income distribution would see a net loss of resources.

Households in the middle 20% of the income distribution would receive, on average, between $800 and $1,200 more per year, which would account for 0.8% to 1% of their income.

At the top of the income distribution, households in the top tenth would see, on average, $13,600 more annually, about 2.7% of their projected income, from 2026 to 2034, the CBO said.

But the lowest tenth of households by income would see a drop of about $1,200 per year, which accounts for 3% of that group’s projected income, the CBO said.

Millions to lose benefits

Roughly 10 million people will lose access to health insurance by 2034, the CBO projected. Most of that group, 7.5 million, would lose Medicaid benefits.

A single section of the law creating new work requirements for Medicaid recipients would result in 5.6 million people losing access to care, the CBO said.

The law also creates new work requirements for SNAP participants and mandates that at least some states pay for a portion of the benefits. States had never been required to cover any share of the cost of SNAP benefits.

The changes to work requirements will result in reduced participation in the program by about 2.4 million people, the CBO said in another analysis published Monday.

The changes to state cost-share in SNAP will save the federal government about $41 billion from 2026 to 2034, CBO said. The agency expects states to pick up most, $35 billion, of that spending.

But the new requirements for states would still likely lead to 300,000 people fewer accessing benefits monthly. The report considered state officials would choose from policy responses including cutting benefits, reducing eligibility or leaving the program altogether in response to the new cost-share.

‘Stealing from working families’

In a press release, a quartet of Democratic leaders in Congress highlighted the regressive impact the CBO projected.

“Prices keep rising and American families are struggling,” House Budget Committee ranking Democrat Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania said. “So what are President Trump’s Republicans doing to help? They passed a law that will make things worse by stealing from working families to give billionaires a tax break.”

“It is truly unfathomable that Trump and Republicans in Congress are championing a bill that gives the top 10 percent $13,600 more per year – while the least affluent 10 percent will lose $1,200 per year,” Senate Budget ranking Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon said. “This is families lose, and billionaires win.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of New York, made similar statements in the release.

A teacher and students in a classroom. (Photo by Klaus Vedfelt/Getty Images)

I recently read over my son’s last report card and was overwhelmed with pride.

It showed how far he’s come — progress that, not long ago, felt out of reach. I made mental notes of the areas where we still need to do some work, but mostly I just sat with the joy of seeing comments like “participates well in class” and “a pleasure to have in class.”

A few years ago, those kinds of remarks seemed impossible.

My son is on the autism spectrum. He’s bright, curious, and kind, but he faces challenges in areas that come more naturally to his peers — things like socializing, staying focused, and following multi-step directions.

To support his growth, our family relies on services in Milwaukee made accessible through Medicaid. Without it, we couldn’t afford the therapies and supports that have made such a profound difference in his life.

One of the most transformative resources we’ve accessed through Medicaid is applied behavior analysis (ABA) therapy. Before my son began this program, he had a hard time sitting still, struggled with completing even small tasks, and rarely interacted meaningfully with others. The world often overwhelmed him, and those feelings showed up as frustration or withdrawal.

Our family was doing everything we could to support him, but we needed help. Medicaid made that possible.

The ABA therapy was intensive and, at times, exhausting — but it worked. Over time, we watched our son develop new skills, regulate his emotions, and engage with the world in a completely new way.

By the time the program ended, we had a different child. Not in that he changed who he was — but because he could finally show the world the amazing person he had always been. He could carry on a conversation, initiate play with peers, connect with adults, and begin building friendships.

Today, thanks to Medicaid, he continues to receive occupational therapy and speech therapy at school. These services help him strengthen motor skills, improve communication, and better navigate daily life. He also receives support through his Individualized Education Plan (IEP), ensuring he has the accommodations he needs to succeed. Because of this, my son is not just surviving — he is thriving.

But now, all of this is under threat.

Millions of families like mine could lose Medicaid because the Trump-GOP budget — the so-called “One Big Beautiful Act” — strips away the very support that children like my son depend on, all to finance tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy. It’s hard to describe the fear that takes hold when you realize that your child’s future has been jeopardized with the stroke of a pen.

Some 37 million children — roughly half of kids in the United States — rely on Medicaid for health care, therapies, and other essential services. For kids with disabilities, Medicaid is often the only option for accessing the support they need. Without it, families face impossible choices — foregoing therapies, draining savings, or going without care altogether.

What’s even more heartbreaking is the callousness with which some elected officials treat this issue. Watching Republican Senators dance to a disco song as they celebrated the passage of this harmful bill made me physically ill. While they partied, families across the country worried about how to care for their children, afford therapy, or keep a roof over their heads.

This isn’t political for me — it’s personal. My child is not a budget line item. He is a human being who deserves the chance to live a full and meaningful life. Every child does.

Medicaid has been a lifeline for us, and it should be protected, not gutted. No parent should have to fight this hard for basic support, and no child should have their future jeopardized by politics.

The promise of America is an opportunity for all. That promise cannot be fulfilled if we dismantle the very systems that allow families like mine to survive — let alone thrive — simply to cut taxes for the wealthy.

We need to do better. We must do better.

A student draws with chalk on an outdoor court at a New York City public school in 2022. If states didn't receive billions in congressionally approved funding for K-12 education that the Trump administration had been withholding, officials said programs for migrants, English-language learners and kids in need of after-school care would be at risk. (Photo by Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)

It’s been a troubling summer for anyone who cares about children, families and the thousands of students who rely on summer and after-school programs across Wisconsin. In early July, without warning and without sound legal authority, the Trump administration’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announced it would withhold billions in federal education funds — including money that had already been appropriated by Congress  months earlier. 

Among the frozen funds was support for 21st Century Community Learning Centers (21st CCLCs) — the only federal program dedicated exclusively to after-school and summer learning. In Wisconsin, more than 18,000 students across over 150 programs rely on this funding for safe, enriching places to go when school is out. These programs aren’t extras. They are essential for student success and family stability. 

Also caught in the freeze were other critical federal programs, including Title II-A (teacher professional development), Title IV-A (student support), Title III-A (English learners), Title I-C (migrant education), adult basic education, and English literacy and civics education. These dollars support some of our most vulnerable students. 

There was no clear explanation. No legal justification. And no warning to the schools and organizations already planning for the 2025–26 school year. 

But the response from the after-school field was swift. National networks like the Afterschool Alliance, local providers, parents and state advocates mobilized. Tens of thousands of letters and phone calls poured into congressional offices. The Afterschool Alliance organized a briefing for the bi-partisan Senate Caucus and then within days, 10 Republican senators sent a letter demanding the OMB release the funds. That pressure worked. The administration reversed course. For now, the 21st CCLC money is moving. 

This was a critical victory — but also a red flag. 

Why did we have to fight so hard for funding that was already signed into law? Why was it even legal for the administration to delay disbursement based on a vague “review”? And what’s to stop it from happening again next year? 

This experience exposed a dangerous truth: Wisconsin has no backup plan. We are in the minority of states without any dedicated state funding stream for after-school and summer learning programs. That leaves our kids — especially those in rural or under-resourced areas — completely dependent on federal dollars. And when federal dollars get caught up in politics, Wisconsin kids lose.

 We can’t afford that gamble. 

Because 21st CCLC programs are not just child care; they are proven, high-quality learning environments that deliver real results. 

In fact, students who regularly attend these programs see improvements in their grades, attendance, engagement and even standardized test scores. A national study of low-income, ethnically diverse students found that regular attendance in a high-quality afterschool program like 21st CCLC led to up to a 20-percentile gain in math scores. Students also showed better behavior and were less likely to be chronically absent. In Wisconsin, where absenteeism has surged post-pandemic, this is exactly the kind of support our students need. 

After-school programs work because they meet kids where they are. These programs offer hands-on STEM projects, arts and music, physical activity, service learning, leadership development and workforce readiness. They give students new experiences, expose them to future career paths, and build skills like communication, collaboration, and critical thinking. They engage the whole child  and they engage families, too. 

They’re also essential for working parents. A recent survey found that nine in 10 voters agree that after-school and summer programs are vital to the economic well-being of families. Employers rely on them to ensure parents can work full hours. Yet today, two-thirds of Wisconsin families who want after-school and summer programs can’t access them. There simply isn’t funding to support the need. 

And demand is growing. In 2024 alone, more than half of 21st CCLC providers reported having waitlists. Nearly 90% said they are worried about long-term sustainability. And while the cost of operating these programs has gone up, federal investment hasn’t kept pace with inflation — meaning we’re doing more with less every year. 

Affluent parents have long understood that learning opportunities outside of school hours are essential to their children’s full development. All of Wisconsin’s children deserve the same chance to thrive. These programs are a vital part of our state’s education and workforce infrastructure,  and it’s time Wisconsin started treating them that way. 

Yes, restoring the 21st CCLC funds was a victory. But it came only because thousands of people raised their voices. We shouldn’t have to beg to protect something so fundamental. And we shouldn’t leave our kids’ futures up to the whims of politics in Washington. 

If we want every student in Wisconsin to have a chance to succeed, not just in school, but in life, we need to invest in these programs. Not just when there’s a crisis, not just when federal funds are threatened, but every year. With reliable, sustainable state funding. 

Our kids and our communities deserve nothing less.