HYANNIS, Neb. — With 19 days until Election Day, Dan Osborn sat across from three skeptical voters in a conference room in this blink-and-you-miss-it rural Nebraska town. 

Osborn, a bearded former union leader and Navy veteran, wants to become the first independent U.S. senator from Nebraska since World War II by defeating Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. The state’s top Democrats are backing Osborn’s bid rather than fielding a candidate.

But this is Trump country. President Donald Trump has never received less than 58% of the vote in Nebraska. 

In Grant County, where Hyannis is the county seat, 96% of voters backed Trump in 2024. The county, one of the least populous in the state, had a population of 611 in the 2020 census.

Local rancher Mark Vinton told Osborn he was “no huge fan” of Ricketts, but that he fully supports Trump’s agenda. Trump was the most consequential and probably the best president of his lifetime, he said.

“So I need to ask you: Would you support Trump’s agenda?” Vinton asked. “Because you know you’re talking to a pretty red area, right?”

“For me, a good idea is a good idea,” Osborn replied, noting that if elected, another president will also be in office during his six-year term.

Osborn is one of four independent candidates for U.S. Senate this year who are the main opponents of incumbent Republican senators. All hail from states — Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota — where Trump won easily and Democrats struggle in statewide elections.

While a Democratic candidate remains on the ballot in Montana, the state party chair recently resigned and endorsed the independent.

The independent campaigns come at an opportune moment. The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, but Trump’s popularity has fallen to new lows, driven by frustrations with inflation and the war with Iran. A national Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Sunday found Trump’s approval stands at just 33%.

The independent candidates are betting that broad dissatisfaction among voters and economic anxiety, combined with their distance from the national Democratic brand, will be enough to create breathing room for voters — including Trump voters — to seriously consider them. 

A real race in Nebraska

The Nebraska race appears to be the most competitive. A YouGov poll released in early October gave Osborn a 1 percentage point lead over Ricketts among likely voters, within the poll’s margin of error and suggestive of a toss-up race.

In addition to Osborn, the other independent Senate candidates — Brian Bengs of South Dakota, Seth Bodnar of Montana and Todd Achilles of Idaho — and their supporters see an opportunity to crack the dominance of the two parties in the Senate.

They have promised not to caucus with either party if elected, spurring talk of an independent caucus that could exercise leverage within the chamber. Such a body would be a novelty in the Senate, where a complex network of rules and tradition closely tied to party membership govern the process.

The Senate already has two independents, Sen. Angus King of Maine and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, but both caucus with Democrats, who now hold 47 seats in the chamber with their support.

One or more successful campaigns could also spur additional candidates in the future, advocates for independents say. Over time, more states could have close or competitive races after years of one party dominating.

“It’s not just winning, though,” said John Opdycke, a longtime activist for political independence. “It’s going to Washington and creating an independent caucus — an independent nexus, a lead, a beachhead, a toehold — for people that want to serve their state but don’t want to be part of team red and team blue.”

The independents are also running in agriculture-heavy states where Trump’s trade wars and the cost of diesel have become economic pain points. Trump recently signed an executive order in Nebraska aimed at lowering diesel prices by deferring the federal tax on the fuel. On Monday, the president also announced an $8 billion fuel relief program for farmers.

An unhappy electorate

Nebraska’s likely voters have nearly equal levels of dissatisfaction with the two major parties. The YouGov poll found that 54% of respondents had a somewhat or very unfavorable view of the Republican Party, while 58% said the same of the Democratic Party.

“I think Democrats have spent too much time talking down to people, telling them what they need to respect, what they don’t need to respect, especially on social issues,” Osborn said in an interview. “And I would align more conservatively with the fact that we have $40 trillion in debt. We need more fiscal hawks, and unfortunately, that’s not a Republican thing anymore.”

Republicans have responded by working aggressively to tag the independent candidates as Democrats. They argue the independent label simply masks support for liberal policies that will anger conservative voters. The Ricketts campaign has dubbed Osborn “Democrat Dan.”

“The Fake Independent circus is fooling nobody,” Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaign arm of Senate Republicans, said in a statement.

Trump is also betting that he has enough juice to drive his own core supporters to the polls, even though he’s not on the ballot. The president has already held one rally in Nebraska this month and Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit in late October. (Trump has also visited Montana this fall).

“Pretend I’m on the ballot, please,” Trump told supporters in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Oct. 5. “We’ve got to go and win this.”

Populist pitch

Osborn, a 51-year-old industrial mechanic, first gained attention as a labor leader at Kellogg’s, the food company. In 2021, he helped lead a nationwide 77-day strike of the company’s cereal-producing plants, including an Omaha location. 

The strike garnered national attention, with President Joe Biden at one point attacking Kellogg’s plan to replace striking workers.

On the campaign trail, Osborn brings a blue-collar aesthetic, wearing blue jeans, work jackets and a U.S.S. Constellation hat — the Navy ship where he served as a storekeeper. During stump speeches, he offers a populist pitch centered on addressing affordability, opposition to the war in Iran and combating corruption. 

Osborn also often talks about the importance of releasing more information on the convicted sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein, saying the files are “going to break up the entire world order.” 

He paints Ricketts, a 62-year-old former governor and the eldest son of the founder of TD Ameritrade, as someone who “ran our state like a mob boss” and demanded complete loyalty.

In Nebraska, a Democrat last won a U.S. Senate race in 2006 amid a blue wave driven by anger over the Iraq War, when incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson beat Ricketts. No Democrat has won more than 40% of the vote in a Senate contest since 2012. 

But Osborn earned notice when he won 46.5% of the vote during his first campaign in 2024, as an independent against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

‘They’re going to need my vote’

At a late afternoon town hall at a Mexican restaurant in Omaha that drew about 40, Osborn outlined how he believes he would exercise influence in the Senate as an independent. He noted that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s signature tax and spending package, only passed in 2025 with a tie-breaking vote from Vance.

If he had defeated Fischer, Osborn said the legislation wouldn’t have passed or would have been changed. “There’s going to be a lot of different bills like that where they’re going to need my vote, and that’s leverage,” Osborn said.

D’Shaun Samuels, a truck driver studying computer science at Bellevue University near Omaha, after the town hall said he was impressed with Osborn. Samuels said he was a registered Democrat but has grown more independent as he observes the political system.

“It’s become this back and forth screaming match between, basically, two adult children screaming at each other: ‘It’s your fault, it’s your fault,’” Samuels said. “But I appreciated that he was saying, ‘No, it’s both of you.’”

GOP questions independence

Republicans charge that Osborn, rather than embodying independence, has been a flip-flopper who’s contemptuous of Nebraska’s rural areas. 

Ricketts and other Republicans point to comments Osborn made at a 2025 town hall where he appeared to signal openness to caucusing with Democrats. During a press call earlier in October, Osborn told reporters he has “no interest” in caucusing with either the Republicans or Democrats. 

Osborn also faced heavy criticism for an audio recording in which he denigrated a hypothetical Trump-supporting couple from Red Cloud, a town of just under 1,000 in southern Nebraska. He traveled to Red Cloud on Oct. 1 and apologized during a town hall. 

In another audio clip, Osborn called Trump’s border wall a “symbol of racism.” Osborn said after the leak that he supports strong, effective border security.

Ricketts’ campaign didn’t make the candidate available for an interview but provided a statement attacking Osborn.

“Dan Osborn isn’t an independent. He was recruited by Democratic Socialists, funded by national Democrats, and endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party,” Ricketts said in a statement. 

“He’s comfortable lying to Nebraskans in a way this state has never seen,” Ricketts said. “He’s running ads promising to help build the border wall while calling it ‘a symbol of racism’ behind closed doors. Independent voters want honesty, and I’m the only candidate in this race who tells Nebraskans exactly where I stand.”

In an interview, Osborn said he had never considered running as a Democrat. He noted the fear some of the Founding Fathers, such as George Washington and James Madison, had of political factions and parties. 

“Everybody wants me to play on their team, but ultimately I’m not interested in doing that,” Osborn said.

Democrats offer backing

Even as Osborn seeks to distance himself from both parties, top Nebraska Democrats have been open about their support.

More than a year ago, Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, publicly backed Osborn’s campaign. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Cindy Burbank, also dropped out to support the independent candidate.

While Kleeb made clear that Democrats want to continue building party support in the state, including in rural communities, she said supporting Osborn isn’t strange because of the state’s unicameral, nonpartisan legislature. 

Nebraska is the only state to take that approach, a change voters approved in 1934 after a campaign driven by Sen. George Norris, the state’s last independent senator.

“Nebraska is a very kind of populist, independent state,” Kleeb said.

Some Republicans say the legislature effectively functions as a partisan institution and dismissed the idea it fosters political independence. 

“Technically, it’s nonpartisan. In reality, it’s very partisan,” said state Sen. Loren Lippincott, a registered Republican. 

Nonpartisan voters account for about 22.5% of registered voters statewide, while Democrats comprise 26% of voters. Nearly half, 49%, are Republicans. 

Despite Republicans’ lopsided voter registration advantage, Kleeb said voters have shown they’re willing to cast a ballot for a different party.

“We’re a smaller state, in that you really do get to know the candidate,” Kleeb said. “It’s not just a person on your TV.”

Hours on the road

Osborn has committed to visiting every Nebraska county during his campaign. As of Tuesday, his website recorded stops in 79 of the state’s 93 counties.

Fulfilling the pledge takes hours on the road, sometimes for stops that draw only a handful of people. But it can also mean reaching voters who may not be willing to vote for a Democrat but might consider an independent, especially as Trump’s popularity sags.

Nida Gorwill said she hadn’t made up her mind about who to vote for after Osborn on Wednesday visited with lunchtime patrons at The Bunkhouse, a restaurant in Arthur, a town of about 120 nestled in the Sand Hills. 

But Gorwill, who at 80 manages a local general store, said she liked Osborn’s status as an independent and not a Democrat. 

Candidates for office need to spend time as a “common, ordinary” person, Gorwill said. “I don’t think Trump has a clue about what it would be like to stand in the back of a truck and pitch hay,” she said.

The Trump administration’s policy on beef has caused particular consternation in rural parts of the state. The White House announced in August that beef from Argentina would be allowed into the United States without tariffs.

The move was intended to fight rising beef prices at grocery stores, but it angered cattle producers, who see it as undercutting the American beef industry amid the lowest cattle inventory in decades. Ricketts criticized the move at the time, but Osborn has produced an ad slamming the imports. 

Al Davis, a former state lawmaker and Sand Hills rancher, was a registered Republican while in office but is now a Democrat. After supporting Fischer, he’s pulling for Osborn over Ricketts. Davis said Osborn appears to have more momentum than in his first campaign.

“I just really hope we’ll have change,” Davis said.

‘Usually, the Republicans come home’

But Hall County Republican Party Chair David Plond predicted Republican voters would vote for Ricketts, no matter what differences they may have with Trump. Plond, whose county includes Grand Island, called any visit by a president a positive.

While Plond acknowledged that Trump “says some things once in a while and misspeaks,” he said most people in Nebraska are happy with his politics.

“Usually, the Republicans come home,” Plond said. “They may be upset with one or two things, but they usually come home.”

In Hyannis, Vinton — the Trump-supporting rancher — said his mind was “pretty well made up” but that he came to speak with Osborn to see if he could change it. As the meeting broke up, he told a reporter he planned to vote for Ricketts.

This didn’t appear to faze Osborn. Asked about Vinton, he emphasized the importance of speaking with as many people as possible. Calling his approach “old school,” he said the conversations were the right thing to do.

“If I win, I’ll be back,” Osborn told the voters as they left.

Nebraska Examiner’s Juan Salinas II contributed reporting.

WASHINGTON — Nearly all of the U.S. senators elected this year will be in office when Congress debates how to restructure Social Security to prevent an automatic drop-off in retirement benefits in 2032. 

Very few candidates in competitive races, however, have policy proposals on their campaign websites and many, when contacted by States Newsroom, declined to share details about which changes they’d support if elected. 

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said even though Social Security’s financial woes have been discussed more during this year’s campaign cycle, most candidates have shied away from getting into the weeds. 

“What’s really disappointing is nobody is talking about a realistic suite of options that will fix it,” she said. “There are a few who will mention lifting the payroll tax cap, which is probably the most often cited policy, but that on its own won’t fix the program.” 

Workers now pay a 6.2% tax that goes directly to Social Security, though that doesn’t apply to earnings above $184,500. 

MacGuineas said one upside to this year’s campaign cycle is more voters understand that a candidate promising not to touch Social Security guarantees the automatic benefit cut in 2032, which will worsen over time. 

But, she said, she understands why candidates would want to wait until they are actually elected to Congress to go into detail about something that was once widely considered the third rail of American politics. 

“It’s been so long since politicians have been honest about what Social Security faces and what fixes will be required,” MacGuineas said. “An election cycle is not where you’d expect a 180-degree switch into a direct conversation. I think this is the first step, and hopefully, post-midterms, we are able to start having that conversation.”

Two-way communication

Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said candidates need to be honest with voters about the changes they’ll likely have to make to Social Security.

At the same time, he said, politicians need to hear from Americans that they understand Congress must take some action in the years ahead.  

“Until we get that two-way street working, it’s going to be really hard to move anything into law,” he said. 

Candidates, and those who work for them, have plenty of resources to study up on Social Security’s financial problems and explore the numerous changes that could be combined to avoid a 22% reduction in benefits from taking place in 2032. 

“It’s not like policymakers are entering into a novel problem that has unexplored solutions,” Akabas said. “They’re walking on well trodden ground and it is more about finding the political will to put those solutions together to create a bipartisan reform package than it is creating solutions from scratch.” 

While Akabas said it’s important for candidates to discuss realistic solutions on the campaign trail, the job of fixing the program would be less fraught if undertaken in a bipartisan way.

“If the two parties together hold hands and say, ‘Here’s a reform that we’re going to put in place, and yes, it has difficult decisions, but it’s the right thing to do for the country,’ I think our polling shows that that could be reasonably well received,” he said. “If, on the other hand, a candidate is putting that proposal out by themselves, it is extremely easy for the other side to message, ‘This candidate just wants to raise your taxes’ or ‘This candidate just wants to cut Social Security.’”

Here’s what politicians running in close Senate races say about Social Security on their websites and shared with States Newsroom when asked for which detailed policy changes they’d support if elected to Congress. 

Alaska 

• Democrat Mary Peltola’s website says if elected she would “work to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for the nearly 95,000 seniors in Alaska.” A spokesperson wrote she “is in this race to fix the rigged system in DC and put Alaska first – that means putting more money in Alaskans’ pockets and ending federal income tax on Social Security.”

   

• Republican Dan Sullivan didn’t have any policy proposals on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information. 

Iowa

• Republican Ashley Hinson’s campaign website says she would preserve “Social Security and Medicare benefits that vulnerable Iowans depend on, while rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse that deplete these programs.” Campaign communications director Billy Fuerst wrote in an email that Hinson “will always protect Social Security for Iowa seniors, and she will work with anyone to ensure the long-term solvency of this vital program. Ashley has never and will never cut a penny from Social Security.” 

   

• Democrat Josh Turek’s website says he would strengthen “Social Security by ensuring billionaires pay their fair share” and raise “Social Security income and assets limits for disabled individuals.” A staffer for his campaign sent several examples of Turek talking about Social Security, including an article in the Iowa Capital Dispatch that quoted him saying it was “ridiculous” that wealthy Americans didn’t pay any taxes to Social Security on income above $184,500. 

Kansas 

• Democrat Adam Hamilton’s website states: “We need to protect social security and provide real solutions for seniors.” A campaign staffer sent an article from the Johnson County Post quoting Hamilton as saying, “Both parties have kicked the can down the road, and the only way this gets solved is if Republicans and Democrats act together. And there’s movement: Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, and Bernie Moreno, a Republican, are working on bipartisan legislation to lift the payroll tax cap. That’s where I’d start. Right now only the first $184,500 of income is subject to Social Security tax, so somebody making $50,000 pays that tax on every dollar they earn while a person making millions pays on a small fraction. Raising the cap is the best lever we have to keep the program solvent without cutting benefits. I think about my mom, who’s on Social Security now. A cut is not an option for her, and it shouldn’t be for anyone.” 

   

• Republican Roger Marshall didn’t have any policy positions on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information. 

Maine

• Republican Susan Collins’ campaign website has one paragraph mentioning her work enacting a law that increased Social Security benefits for millions of Americans who had pensions after working in government or other public-sector jobs. Collins wrote in a statement that she supports “creating an independent, bipartisan commission of experts to develop recommendations —similar to the one in the early 1980s. I have supported proposals calling for such a commission for Congress to consider.” Collins added that she remains “committed to keeping Social Security strong for current and future generations. It’s a critical program and the foundation of retirement income for most Mainers, and I’ve voted repeatedly to preserve it.” 

   

• Democrat Troy Jackson’s website says he would “protect” Social Security and notes he published an op-ed in the Bangor Daily News saying he would eliminate the $184,500 payroll cap and raise benefits. He wrote he would “never” vote to raise the retirement age or privatize the program. Campaign spokesperson Maggie Amjad wrote in an email that, “Troy is committed to protecting Social Security from cuts and ensuring that Mainers receive the secure retirement and benefits they’ve paid into and earned.” She added that if elected, “he’ll work to scrap the cap and require millionaires to pay Social Security taxes on their income, allow Medicare to negotiate the price of every drug, eliminate profiteering and waste, and expand benefits—not raise the retirement age.” 

Michigan

• Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s website says he would “fight to close the Social Security payroll tax cap to make sure the rich pay their fair share so that Social Security stays solvent well into the future.” Campaign spokesperson Cole Wozniak wrote in an email that El-Sayed would “ensure our seniors get the benefits they earned through a lifetime of labor.” 

   

• Republican Mike Rogers doesn’t have any policy details on this campaign website. But communications director Alyssa Brouillet wrote in an email that Rogers is committed to protecting the program since his “parents survived on social security, as do his wife, Kristi’s, parents.” Brouillet added that Rogers “is committed to protecting social security and Medicare for our seniors.” 

New Hampshire 

• Democrat Chris Pappas’ campaign website says he “will never vote to cut benefits or force seniors to work longer for less. He has fought against efforts to raise the retirement age, slash Social Security benefits, and privatize the entire system, a move that would gamble Granite Staters’ hard-earned benefits in the stock market and benefit Wall Street. Chris is committed to shoring up and improving Social Security to ensure that current retirees and future generations can trust that their benefits will be there.”

   

• Republican John Sununu didn’t have any policy details on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information. 

North Carolina 

• Democrat Roy Cooper didn’t have any policy proposals on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information. 

   

• Republican Michael Whatley didn’t have any policy positions on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information.  

Ohio 

• Democrat Sherrod Brown’s website says that because of the Social Security Fairness Act, a broadly bipartisan bill that became law in 2024, more than 2 million “former teachers, bus drivers, police officers, firefighters, and other workers are now receiving their full Social Security payments that previously were withheld by the federal government.” A campaign spokesperson didn’t provide any details about what types of policy changes Brown would support in the future to avoid the automatic benefit cut, responding to States Newsroom’s request for policy details with criticisms of Husted. 

   

• Republican Jon Husted didn’t have any policy details on his campaign website and staff didn’t respond to multiple requests for more information.  

Texas

• Republican Ken Paxton’s website doesn’t have any policy proposals related to Social Security. A campaign staffer responded in an email that Paxton “believes we must protect Social Security for the millions of seniors who spent their lives paying into the system and are counting on the benefits they earned.” The campaign staffer also said that Paxton “will continue to stand behind lowering taxes and ensuring Social Security remains protected for generations to come.” The campaign didn’t explain how exactly Paxton would do that if he became a senator. 

   

• Democrat James Talarico’s website says he would support “eliminating the tax cap on those earning over $400,000 a year, and incentivize employer-sponsored pensions.” A campaign staffer wrote in an email that Talarico would eliminate the $184,500 payroll tax ceiling for Social Security. He would also “support creating a tax system in which every dollar of income over $400,000 is taxed to fund Social Security. This policy would include a tax ramp-up starting at $400,001 that grows with additional income. This would ensure the top 2% of American earners are doing their part to keep this program solvent, without increasing the tax burden on the middle class during a cost-of-living crisis.” The campaign staffer wrote that Talarico wouldn’t support increasing the retirement age at which Americans can begin collecting Social Security benefits or reduce scheduled benefits.

WASHINGTON — Voters are much more likely to support U.S. Senate candidates in the November midterm elections if they have a plan to avoid an automatic cut to Social Security benefits in 2032, according to a poll released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

“Senators elected this fall will be in office in 2032 when Social Security recipients will face immediate 22% cuts, so all candidates should be putting forth solutions in this campaign to prevent this catastrophic result,” said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation. “The good news indicated by this survey is that voters want this problem addressed, and there is strong bipartisan support for many available solutions that would sustain this essential program.” 

Ninety-one percent of those surveyed said they support changes to Social Security “to prevent automatic benefit cuts,” while 85% said “it is more important than ever for lawmakers to fix” the program, given the sharp increase in the cost of living.

The poll focused on voters in the swing states of Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, elevating Social Security as a campaign issue with less than two months until voting ends on Nov. 3. 

Seventy-two percent of those in the poll said they would support Congress instituting a 1% tax on income above $184,500 to bolster funding for Social Security. The law currently requires people to pay a 6.2% tax up to that annual income level but no Social Security taxes after. 

About two-thirds said they would support lawmakers placing a $100,000 limit on annual Social Security benefits for a retired couple. 

Gradually increasing the retirement age wasn’t nearly as popular, with 52% of those surveyed opposed to the possibility that lawmakers would “phase in a small gradual increase in the retirement age for younger Americans.”

Sixty-eight percent of those polled didn’t support the idea that Congress could borrow more to offset the upcoming benefit cut.

The online poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research, surveyed 2,500 registered voters between Aug. 20 and Aug. 27. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.