A Connecticut Department of Transportation crew works on an Interstate 95 bridge on Nov. 05, 2023, in Westport, Connecticut. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut earlier this month could mean lower borrowing costs for state and local governments and bring changes for housing development, tax revenue and road, water and sewer construction. (By John Moore/Getty Images)

The Federal Reserve’s second consecutive key rate cut could mean more than just lower borrowing costs for the average consumer — state and local governments stand to benefit, too.

Lower interest rates may bring changes for housing development, tax revenue, debt refinancing and bread-and-butter projects like roads, water and sewer, state and local government officials told States Newsroom.

The Fed’s cut earlier this month followed an aggressive rate-hiking campaign to beat down inflation, and it came years after the last time the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates. Key borrowing rates now stand at 4.5 to 4.75%, and inflation has cooled to 2.7%. Economists expect another rate cut in December.

“On average, the lower the interest rates are expected to help stock market returns if historical trends hold,” said Liz Farmer, who focuses on budgets, fiscal distress, tax policy and pensions at The Pew Charitable Trusts. “So generally, you would expect a more positive effect on your average pension portfolio that has a good amount invested in equities.”

This change means states and localities will have lower borrowing costs, which will make it easier to make big long-term changes in infrastructure, to see higher sales tax collections as a result of more spending, and it is likely to result in better pension performance in an environment where stocks tend to respond to lower rates, fiscal policy experts at Pew say.

In 2021 and 2022, states had record high revenue growth due in part to federal pandemic aid and the impact of the federal aid on workers and businesses, according to Pew. But that kind of growth was unsustainable.

Recently, nearly all states have entered into a slower revenue growth environment, said Brian Sigritz, director of state fiscal studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers, a professional membership group for budget and finance officers. More than three dozen states had a fall in revenue in fiscal year 2023,  Pew’s analysis found. At least five states experienced budget shortfalls in fiscal year 2024, the think tank explained.

“States overall are remaining in a strong fiscal position. It’s just that we’re starting to see slower growth compared to what we did see for those a couple of years after the start of the pandemic,” he said. “That was really a unique set of circumstances where we had the additional federal aid provided by all the different COVID relief bills and at the same time where state revenue growth was growing so strongly, and that led to very strong growth in tax collections.”

Sigritz said that states, which have to almost entirely use borrowing for infrastructure and capital projects, will benefit from lower borrowing costs as a result of the Fed rate cuts.

David Schmiedicke, finance director for the city of Madison, Wisconsin’s finance department, said he’s hopeful that the lower cost of borrowing will reduce the cost of public infrastructure when seeking construction bids.

“We’re seeing a lot of development, even with the higher rates. Madison is an attractive place to live. People from around the country are moving here,” he said.

Rebecca Fleury, the city manager for Battle Creek, Michigan, said interest rates affect key services the public relies on, including fire departments.

“[Interest rates] have an impact on our ability as a city of 52,000 to provide the full services that we do. Every little bit impacts us, because we have to buy fire trucks,” she said.“If there’s a decrease in one of our three largest revenue sources, we feel it.”

But there are both pluses and minuses to the cut in the federal funds rate, Schmiedicke said, as it brings down the interest income states receive.

“It probably will reduce the amount of investment income the city receives on its cash balances. We saw that go up dramatically in 2022 and 2023, so that’ll probably come down as the Fed cuts rates,” Schmiedicke said.

Different tax policies also change how states and localities experience the Fed rate cuts.

H.D. Palmer, deputy director for external affairs and principal spokesman on fiscal and financial issues for California Gov. Gavin  Newsom, said that the lower interest rates are overall positive for the nation’s largest state because of the concentration of technology firms there, its progressive tax rate, and the taxing of capital gains and stock options as personal income.

“When the markets are doing well, those types of firms that are concentrated in California do well and in consequence, our revenues do well,” Palmer said.

The Alabama Department of Finance told States Newsroom that it is closely following the Fed’s actions as it “closely follows all actions that could impact our citizens and the State’s revenues.”

But the state agency said it may take some time to see any of the effects of recent rate cuts.

“While recent changes in the federal funds rate may lead to increased state revenues, absent a significant change in the rate, the impact on revenues and expenditures would not likely be seen immediately. We will continue to monitor and assess all economic indicators to ensure steady, sustainable, conservative growth for the benefit of all Alabamians,” the department said in a statement.

Schmiedicke said Wisconsin is very reliant on property taxes because although state law allows a statewide sales tax and counties can impose a 0.5% sales tax, cities other than Milwaukee have not been able to do so. The state also has strict limits on property tax increases.

“We could see more development in the city and that could definitely help with our overall property tax base, as well as if it results in more travel and room taxes,” he said.

As states and localities wrestle with how to provide more affordable housing, with nearly half of renters having to spend more than 30% of their income on housing, lower interest rates could help spur more building. Fleury said the costs of loans and labor and materials has been “astronomical,” making it hard for developers to build. Although she said Battle Creek would love to take advantage of Low Income Housing Tax Credits, it’s challenging to fund projects.

“I think that a lower interest rate could really help us get farther along in our housing plans,” she said “If you can’t get your project to pencil within what they’re able to fund or finance, we just never make the list.”

Despite lower interest rates creating a better environment for affordable rent and homes, states will likely continue to spend a lot of energy on housing programs, Sigritz said. Governors’ budget proposals and state of the state speeches have prioritized affordable housing more and more in the past few years, he said, and he expects this to continue.

“Housing affordability is not an issue that’s going to go away overnight, and there’s still a need for more housing,” Sigritz said. “It takes a while to build additional housing even in the lower-interest environment.”

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Home mortgage rates are posted outside a real estate office in Los Angeles after the Federal Reserve interest rates announcement on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a half-point cut to its benchmark interest rate in the first rate cut since the early days of the COVID pandemic.

The Federal Reserve’s first key interest rate cut in four years coincides with another major four-year event: the homestretch of the presidential election.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the central bank’s role in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Wednesday, in announcing the half-percentage point cut in its benchmark rate. But that didn’t stop the candidates’ campaigns from weighing in, and it could prove a key factor for voters.

“This is my fourth presidential election at the Fed, and it’s always the same. We’re always going to this meeting in particular and asking what’s the right thing to do for the people we serve,” Powell said. “Nothing else is ever discussed.”

The decision to cut for the first time during the Biden Administration indicates the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors believe the economy has beaten the COVID-19 pandemic-induced wave of inflation that has plagued it since mid-2021. The Fed hiked its key rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose 2.5% over the past year, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in August, down from 4.3% in July, but still much higher than 3.5% in July 2023 when the Fed made its last rate hike.

“We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks of both sides of our dual mandate,” Powell said.

Wednesday’s was the first in what is expected to be a series of key rate cuts. For now, that benchmark rate is 4.75 to 5%

One member of the Fed’s governing board, Michelle Bowman, dissented with the rest of the group, marking the first time a governor has done so since 2005. Bowman preferred a 25 basis point – or quarter percentage point – cut.

Timing of the rate cut

Both campaigns quickly reacted to the news from the Fed.

Trump, speaking at a crypto-themed bar in New York, said the cut should have been smaller.

“I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they’re not just playing politics,” the Republican nominee said. “The economy would be very bad or they’re playing politics, one or the other. But it was a big cut.”

Harris, in a prepared statement, was forward-looking.

“While this announcement is welcome news for Americans who have borne the brunt of high prices, my focus is on the work ahead to keep bringing prices down,” the Democratic nominee said. “I know prices are still too high for many middle class and working families.”

Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution and author of, “The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve,” said there is a long history of presidents pressuring the Fed, from John F. Kennedy to Richard Nixon and Trump, as a president and now as a presidential candidate.

In order to be effective in its role in keeping the economy moving, Binder said, the Fed needs to be trusted as legitimate, and its political support is contingent on doing a good job.

“The Fed doesn’t have the liberty of sitting it out or not doing enough, which can also bring the Fed into politicians’ crosshairs where they really, really don’t want to be,” she said.

Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a research group that advocates for full employment, said the Fed should be examining the economic data.

“That’s what they should look at, not where they are in the electoral seasonal cycle,” she said. “I think that’s the case, by and large. I don’t see anything that’s just a real politicization here.”

What a Fed rate cut means for the economy

Many economists and economic advisers have argued for the Fed to cut rates for months to avoid significant damage to the labor market and in the worst case, a recession.

Now, consumers should begin to see lower costs for borrowing money to buy houses, cars and other necessities.

Kitty Richards, senior strategic adviser at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank based in Washington, D.C., said the Fed should not hold back on cutting rates now that inflation is slowing.

“The Fed pursued four back to back 70-basis-point rate hikes when inflation was heating up. There’s no reason they should allow inertia to hold them back from normalizing rates now that inflation is under control,” she said.

Because shelter makes up so much of inflation, Richards has expressed concern that by keeping rates where they are, mortgage rates have been pushed so high that the housing market is unaffordable for many Americans. This, in turn, affects inflation, she said, creating a vicious cycle.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a progressive economic policy think tank, stated that the Fed decision is a good sign for the housing market.

“It is good that the Fed has now recognized the weakening of the labor market and responded with an aggressive cut. Given there is almost no risk of rekindling inflation, the greater boost to the labor market is largely costless,” Baker said in a statement. “Also, it will help to spur the housing market where millions of people have put off selling homes because of high mortgage rates.”

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