U.S. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., arrives for the Senate Republican leadership elections at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington, D.C.  Thune was elected majority leader for the Congress that convenes in January. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans huddled behind closed doors Tuesday to plot the path forward for the unified control of government they won in the November elections, though GOP senators said afterward a very narrow House majority will likely determine how sweeping their policy proposals will be.

Republicans are planning to use the complicated budget reconciliation process to address immigration and energy in one bill before turning their attention to taxes later next year in a separate bill. The specifics of those measures or how they might affect policy are not yet clear.

That budget reconciliation process will allow the GOP to get around the 60-vote legislative filibuster in the Senate that typically forces bipartisanship on big-ticket items. Reconciliation is generally used when one party controls the House, Senate and the White House, since it requires a majority vote in each chamber.

With House Republicans’ majority dropping to just 220 seats during the upcoming session of Congress, there will be very little room for GOP lawmakers in that chamber to vote against reconciliation bills, since Democrats are not likely to be included in negotiations or to vote for the final versions.

GOP leaders will also be down a seat from the beginning since former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned to focus on his confirmation process for attorney general before dropping out, isn’t planning to take his oath of office.

New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, nominated for United Nations ambassador, and Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, who will become Trump’s national security adviser, are expected to resign from Congress early next year, leaving GOP leaders down three slots until special elections are held. That would make for a 217-215 split.

Those extremely narrow margins could throw the chamber into gridlock if Republicans lawmakers miss a vote or are absent due to illness. There’s even a scenario where Democrats could have more votes on the floor than Republicans if several of their members are out.

The last time Republicans held unified control of Congress and the White House in 2017, when they passed their tax package via reconciliation, they held 241 House seats, a significantly wider margin than they’ll have next year. 

Thune says options presented

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, who will become majority leader in January, said lawmakers are working through “how best to maximize the opportunity we have through reconciliation to achieve a lot of the president’s and our objectives and things that he campaigned on.”

“And, you know, there obviously is the tax piece, but we’ve got until the end of the year to do that,” Thune said, referring to 2025. “So the question is how do we execute on using the opportunity of reconciliation.

“So we presented some different options, all of which our members are considering. And so, you know, we’ll see in the end where it lands but we’ve got to work with the House of Representatives and with obviously incoming President Trump to get the best path forward.”

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis said Republicans still have a lot of work to do ironing out the details of the two packages, given the narrow margins for passage.

“If you take a look at the priorities of one end of the spectrum for the House caucus and the other end on border, there’s some reconciliation, pun intended, that needs to be done before reconciliation,” Tillis said.

House Republican leaders have struggled at times during this Congress to keep centrist GOP lawmakers and far-right members both supportive of large-scale policy bills. Adding in proposals or amendments from one side meant the GOP often lost votes from the other, forcing leaders to constantly walk a metaphorical tightrope when drafting legislation.

Republicans could have a more narrow House majority during the next Congress, likely causing headaches for leadership as they hold “family discussions” on the reconciliation bills.

Johnson stops by Senate GOP huddle

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., attended the Senate Republican meeting as the two chambers work to stay on the same page heading into January.

“I think we’re pretty unified on where we want to go. It’s just getting there,” she said. “You know, the devil’s in the details.”

Capito, who will become Republican Policy Committee chair next year, said election results sent a clear message to the GOP about what policy changes Americans expect to see during the next two years.

“What the voters are telling us they want us to do is very clear in some ways,” Capito said. “And we can go through the clearest ones first.”

Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who will become the first Republican woman to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee next year, cautioned the reconciliation process requires a lot of coordination and planning.

“Reconciliation is extremely complex, as those of us who have been through it before know,” Collins said. “And I think we’re going to have a very busy beginning of the year, which is why I’d like to see the disaster supplemental pass before we leave here for Christmas.

“And I would also still argue that it would be important to try to finish up the FY 25 appropriations bills. I realize that’s going to have to go into January at this point. But I’m still hoping we don’t go into March, because with reconciliation coming down the pike, the president’s new budget, which is due the first Monday of February, also coming at us, there’s going to be a ton of work to do.”

Delayed spending bills

Congress was supposed to complete work on the dozen annual government funding bills by Oct. 1, but instead relied on a stopgap spending bill to extend the deadline until Dec. 20.

Since they haven’t made any real progress on the full-year bills, congressional leaders are now debating how long a second continuing resolution should last.

That appropriations work will likely pile up at the beginning of next year, overlapping with Republican efforts to push through their first reconciliation package before turning their attention to the second one.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said he’s confident House GOP leaders will be able to whip the votes necessary amid another razor-thin majority to approve the two reconciliation packages next year.

“We need to show that we’re recognizing the mandate of the last election, and have something smaller and hard-hitting before we take on the big issues,” Grassley said.

House Republicans, he said, “know there’s a mandate to deliver on. And they know that they better deliver.”

‘We have a directive from the American people’

Alabama GOP Sen. Katie Britt said Johnson will be able to keep the centrist and far-right members of the House Republican Conference united as details emerge in the weeks and months ahead about how exactly the two reconciliation packages will change policies.

“We know we have a slim majority in the House, but Speaker Johnson is aware of that,” Britt said. “And I think that they will work through issues over there, because we know that we have a directive from the American people to actually get things done. And I think that that’s what we’re unified to do.”

Asked about the narrow margins Republicans will have, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson said “hopefully, this will all be things that we can form consensus on.”

“It’s what President Trump ran on and we’re going to try and, obviously, pass his agenda,” he said.

Arkansas Sen. John Boozman, a Republican, said their timeline is “as soon as possible” but that they’ll have to wait.

“It’s going to be a lot going on, but the budget is number one — we have to do that to start the process, and then just as quickly as possible,” Boozman said.

Congress must adopt a budget resolution in order to unlock the reconciliation process. That tax and spending blueprint is not a bill and does not become law. Instead, it sets Congress’ goals for the 10-year budget window.

In order to actually fund government departments and agencies, Congress must pass the dozen appropriations bills, which they’ve mostly ignored for the last several months.

Ariana Figueroa contributed to this report.

"Fire Duey Stroebel" sign at Habush Sinykin Election night party. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)

Tuesday’s election results for the Wisconsin State Legislature were mixed. Wisconsin Democrats won several key state Senate races, breaking the Republican 22-seat supermajority and laying the groundwork for Democrats to compete for a majority in 2026. In the Assembly, Republicans appear to have held their majority with many incumbents defeating their challengers. 

New legislative maps, which were adopted in February after the state Supreme Court ruled the old maps were an unconstitutional gerrymander, gave Democrats the opportunity to run in competitive districts in many cases for the first time in over a decade. 

Half of the state Senate was up for reelection this year, and Democrats ran in each Senate district.

Democrats won five districts they were targeting on Tuesday — ousting Republican incumbents, winning newly created open seats and keeping a Democratic incumbent in office. The results bring the Senate makeup to 18 Republicans and 15 Democrats. The previous makeup was 22 Republicans and 10 Democrats.

Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein (D-Middleton) celebrated in a statement Wednesday morning.

“Senate Democrats defeated Republicans’ manufactured supermajority, and we are on a pathway to the majority in 2026,” Hesselbein said “Our candidates knocked on thousands of doors, listened to voters, and clearly articulated their vision for Wisconsin. Senate Democrats will tirelessly defend our shared values and uplift working families.”

Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin of Whitefish Bay declared victory over Sen. Duey Stroebel of Saukville, ousting the lawmaker who has served in the Senate since 2016. The race was one of the most expensive state legislative races in the state with spending surpassing $10.2 million, according to a review by WisPolitics. 

The district sits north of Milwaukee and includes Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, Bayside, River Hills, Menomonee Falls, Germantown, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton and Port Washington.

This will be Habush Sinykin’s first time holding public office. She ran for office once before in a special election for an open seat in 2023, but lost to Sen. Dan Knodl. 

Hesselbein welcomed Habush Sinykin in a release, saying that she and her team ran an “incredible” campaign. 

“As the underdog, she did not shy away from the hard work necessary to win this race,” Hesselbain said. “Jodi’s deep ties to the community, thoughtful decision-making, and experience as an attorney will allow her to effectively legislate for the needs of this community.”

At an election night party in Theinsville, Habush Sinykin started the night greeting, thanking and talking to her supporters, though results of the race hadn’t been called by 2 a.m. when the party ended. Signs declaring “Fire Duey Stroebel” were placed throughout the party.

Democrat Sarah Keyeski, a mental health provider from Lodi, declared victory over incumbent Sen. Joan Ballweg just after midnight in the race for the 14th Senate District. Keyeski is a political newcomer, and this will be her first term in office. 

The district sits north of Madison and covers parts of Dane, Columbia, Sauk and Richland counties, including the cities of Deforest, Reedsburg, Baraboo, Lodi, Columbus, Portage, Richland Center and Wisconsin Dells. The district changed under new legislative maps, and Ballweg, who has served in the Senate since 2021, was drawn into another district but decided to move to remain in the 14th district.

Hesselbein said she is “confident that Sarah will be a strong voice for folks living in the 14th Senate District.”

Democrat Jamie Wall, a business consultant from Green Bay, declared victory over Republican Jim Rafter in the race for the open 30th Senate District. The newly created district sits in Brown County, representing Green Bay, Ashwaubenon, De Pere, Allouez, Bellevue. 

Democrat Kristin Alfheim, a member of the Appleton Common Council, defeated Republican Anthony Phillips, a cancer physician, in the race for the 18th Senate District in the Fox Valley, including Appleton, Menasha, Neenah and Oshkosh.

Democratic Sen. Brad Pfaff of Onalaska, won reelection over Republican challenger Stacey Klein, clinching his second term in office. Pfaff was first elected to the Senate in 2020, and previously served as the secretary-designee of the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, after being appointed by Gov. Tony Evers, though Republicans later denied his nomination. 

Highly contested Assembly races

All of the Assembly’s 99 seats were up for election this year, and after the new maps were implemented, Democrats saw an opportunity to make gains, and potentially flip the body. The new majority is likely 54 Republicans to 45 Democrats.

While Republicans held onto enough seats to retain their majority this year, Democrats cut the previous 64-seat Republican majority by 10 seats and had all their incumbents reelected. 

“Fair maps have allowed voters to hold legislators accountable, and this will change how policy is written and what bills move through the legislature,” said Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) in a statement Wednesday. “I hope and expect that this shift will result in more collaboration and bipartisan work in the legislature, because that is what the people of Wisconsin have asked us to do.”

The Assembly Democrats will add 23 new members to their caucus.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester), told reporters Wednesday afternoon that the party was proud of those who won. He said the Republican Assembly caucus will have eight new members in the Legislature. 

“We are at 54 strong,” Vos said. “Many people, especially the minority leader, spent the last three months telling everybody, they were going to be in the majority. They were clearly wrong, and again now we get the chance to set the agenda for the rest of the state with our colleagues in the state Senate.”

Vos and Assembly Majority Leader Tyler August (R-Walworth) said the results were a sign of Republican strength, and that Democrats were only able to pick up seats because the maps, which were proposed by Evers and passed by the Republican-majority Legislature, were drawn to favor them. 

“The only way that Democrats picked up seats was by having a map that was clearly gerrymandered to give them a result,” Vos said. 

“We were able to fight against that because we have better candidates, a better message and we are right on the issues when it comes down to it,” August said. 

Vos, the longest speaker in state history, said he will run to lead Assembly Republicans again. He said the caucus’ priorities for the session will need to be discussed in the coming weeks, but one will likely focus on the state’s budget surplus. 

“We are not going to spend that. It’s going to either go back to the taxpayers as relief, or it’s going to stay in the budget as a surplus because I am not going to support a plan that says if Evers vetoes tax cuts, we’re going to spend it on growing the size of government,” Vos said. 

Many Republican incumbents defeated their Democratic challengers. Republican Rep. Jessie Rodriguez of Oak Creek defeated Democratic challenger David Marstellar in the race for the 21st Assembly District, which sits in Milwaukee County.

Republican Rep. Todd Novak of Dodgeville defeated Democratic challenger Elizabeth Grabe in the race for the 51st Assembly District, which represents part of Lafayette, Iowa and Grant counties. 

Republican Rep. Shannon Zimmerman of River Falls defeated Democrat Alison Page in the 30th Assembly District, which represents the cities of Hudson and River Falls as well as the towns of Troy and St. Joseph. Zimmerman has served in the Assembly since 2016. 

Republican Rep. Bob Donovan defeated Democrat LuAnn Bird in their rematch to represent  Assembly District 61, which covers Greendale and Hales Corner in Milwaukee County. 

Republican Rep. Patrick Snyder defeated Democratic challenger Yee Leng Xiong, executive director at the Hmong American Center and a member of the Marathon County Board, in the race for the 85th Assembly District. The district represents Wausau and other parts of Marathon County. Snyder has served in the Assembly since 2016.

Republican Rep. Clint Moses, who has served in the Assembly since 2020, defeated Democratic challenger Joe Plouff, in the race for Assembly District 92, which covers Menomonie and Chippewa Falls. 

Democratic candidate Joe Sheehan, former superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District and executive director of the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corporation, defeated Republican Rep. Amy Binsfield, a first-term representative from Sheboygan, in the race for Assembly District 26. 

Democrat Tara Johnson, a former La Crosse County Board member, defeated Rep. Loren Oldenburg (R-Viroqua), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2018, in the race for the 96th Assembly District. 

Democrat Ryan Spaude, a criminal prosecutor, defeated Republican Patrick Buckley, who serves as the Brown County Board chairman, in the race for the 89th Assembly District, which covers parts of Brown County including Ashwaubenon and Green Bay. 

Democratic Rep. Jodi Emerson of Eau Claire defeated Republican challenger Michele Magadance Skinner in the race for the 91st Assembly District. 

Democrat Christian Phelps defeated Republican James Rolbiecki in the race for the 93rd Assembly District, which represents part of Eau Claire. The seat represents a gain for Democrats in the area.

Democratic Rep. Deb Andraca, who flipped a district when she was first elected in 2020, said Tuesday night at the Election party in Thiensville that Democrats adding seats in the Assembly was a “different day” and Democrats in the Assembly would no longer be trying to just save the governor’s veto. She declared victory in her reelection bid on Tuesday night.

“The gerrymander is dead,” Andraca said. “We’re no longer saving the veto. We are going to go back in the Wisconsin State Assembly with more seats than we have had in over a decade. We are going to be looking at the ability to negotiate, bring our bills forward and it’s going to be a completely different day.” 

“We are going to be able to make much more of a difference in the Wisconsin State Assembly, and that’s because of all of the hard work that people in this room have done election after election and year after year.” 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the national organization that works to elect Democrats to state legislatures, celebrated the Wisconsin results in a statement. 

“Thanks to fair maps and a smart strategy, the GOP’s stranglehold on Wisconsin’s Legislature is coming to an end,” DLCC President Heather Williams said. “Our 2024 wins mark just the beginning. Seat by seat, the DLCC is committed to continuing to build and defend Democratic power in the Wisconsin Legislature. Republicans have been put on notice: the DLCC is poised to make Wisconsin a future Democratic trifecta.”

This report has been updated.

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