Tony Wied yard signs in Green Bay. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)

The race for Wisconsin’s open 8th Congressional District seat pits Democrat Kristin Lyerly, an OB-GYN, against Republican Tony Wied, a former gas station owner, and is testing the power of reproductive rights versus the influence of former President Donald Trump. 

The 8th CD House seat is open this year after Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher, who was first elected to the seat in 2016 and easily held it throughout his tenure, resigned from Congress in April. Voters on Election Day will see the candidates on ballots twice. A special election was called to happen concurrently with the general election to fill out the rest of the two-year term left open by Gallagher’s departure.

The district sits in the northeast part of the state encompassing the city of Green Bay and the rest of surrounding Brown County as well as Marinette, Oconto, Menonominee, Shawano, Waupaca, Outagamie, Calumet counties and part of Winnebago County. 

Aaron Weinschenk, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, noted that most analyses of the makeup of the district indicate it leans solidly Republican. The last time a Democrat represented the district was from 2006 through 2010, when Democratic Rep. Steve Kagan held the seat.

“I think that because Democrats have won the seat some people see it as a possibility for Democrats, although I would be pretty surprised if the Democrats win it during this election cycle,” Weinschenk told the Examiner in an email. 

Lyerly has brought reproductive rights to the center of the race, while Wied seeks to focus more on the economy and immigration 

Weinschenk said the issues each candidate is focusing on make sense given that each is talking about subjects where the parties and their respective presidential candidates are perceived as having an advantage. According to September polling from Pew Research Center, Trump holds a 7-point advantage over Harris when it comes to immigration policy. Harris held an 11-point advantage on abortion policy.

“We live in an era where politics is highly nationalized (the correlation between vote share in House elections and presidential elections is incredibly high right now — higher than ever before),” Weinschenk wrote. “National forces seem to matter in lots of different down-ballot races these days (even state supreme court elections).”

Lyerly highlights reproductive health issues, tries to flip district

Even before launching her campaign for Congress, it was no secret Lyerly, an OB-GYN from De Pere, was passionate about reproductive health care.

After the U.S. Supreme Court returned abortion policymaking to individual states with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022, Lyerly moved her practice to Minnesota. She also joined a court case challenging the 1849 state law that ceased abortion services across Wisconsin for more than a year.

Democrats are hopeful that Lyerly’s background and dedication to the issue can help flip the district.

Chair of the Brown County Democratic Party Christy Welch said there is reason to believe the district will flip. Welch is also running in a competitive state legislative race against Republican Benjamin Franklin.

“It’s an open seat with a very strong candidate, who is an expert in an issue that is motivating a lot of voters right now in what’s sure to be a high turnout election. A lot of people are not happy with Republicans in general,” Welch said. “All that together could mean a flip.”

Lyerly said in a September interview with the Examiner that reproductive health is top of mind for voters this year, including in the district with a large Catholic population. 

“As a doctor who has worked with people in this region, Catholics receive abortion care and use contraception at the same rate as everyone else. They just talk about it differently. You’re knocking on doors, and when you open that door and create that space to share that personal story, that’s when you really understand how much it means to people. I think it’s difficult on a macro level to understand the depth of importance that this issue has in this region. But when you’re actually talking with the people, not just young women — dads, young men, old men, old women… people understand,” Lyerly said. “The one fundamental thing that everybody wants is freedom, it all comes back to freedom.”

A recent poll conducted by University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation found that the majority of Wisconsinites oppose criminalizing abortion. According to the survey, 78% of Wisconsinites — including 57% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats — do not want abortion to be criminalized before fetal viability.

Lyerly spoke about a 70-year-old farm wife in Shawano who gave her a note describing her dislike for abortion and her desire to have eight children. But she was only able to have three due to health complications.

“She understood that pregnancy is hard. Reproductive health is hard and you can’t take abortion out of health care,” Lyerly said. “What we can do is we can educate, we can support. We can make sure people have access to health care.” 

If she won the seat, Lyerly said she would “love” to work with Sen. Tammy Baldwin to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, a bill that would create a federal protection for abortion similar to the one established under Roe v. Wade. 

During an October debate, Wied avoided staking out a position on what Wisconsin abortion policy should be, and Lyerly seized the moment to highlight the answer as a “cop out.” Wied said he supports the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the decision about whether abortion should be restricted should remain up to individual states.

“We all know the person who pulls Tony Wied’s strings is proud of taking Roe v. Wade down,” Lyerly said, referring to Trump. The former president has bragged about the role he played in helping overturn Roe v. Wade, yet he has also been stepping back from some of that rhetoric as he tries to win over voters. Trump recently said that some state bans are “too tough.” 

Asked to clarify, Wied refused to say what he thinks Wisconsin’s law should be. He also said Lyerly should run for the state Assembly if she wants to work on the issue.

“I’m running for the United States House of Representatives. Our job is to present spending bills and oversee the agencies at the federal level. I am not for continuing to add more power to the federal government… This is a state issue. It will continue to be a state issue,” Wied said. 

Chair of the Door County Republican Party Stephanie Soucek said she doubts the issue will be enough to “move the needle” in the district this year, though she said that Democrats’ messaging about Wied’s views on the issue have included “hyperbolic, unfair accusations.” For example, she said the claims that Republicans are going to ban fertility treatments and contraception aren’t where most Republicans are.

“There are some people out there that are very single-issue voters,” Soucek said. “I think there’s enough stuff going on that is affecting people’s lives every day, so they’re seeing things and experiencing things that I think will override… the abortion issue. It’s just a matter of getting the message out there, and pushing back against some of those claims.” 

Republicans focus on immigration, economy and Trump

From meeting the Republican former president at an April rally in Green Bay to propose his candidacy to clinching a public endorsement to coincide with his decision to run, to leaning heavily on being the only “Trump-endorsed” candidate in the primary, Wied has made former President Donald Trump central to his campaign.

Wied won a three-way primary in August against a current and a former state lawmaker to secure the Republican nomination. Wied’s campaign did not respond to an interview request from the Examiner. 

Trump’s influence on Wied’s campaign has been prominent as the political newcomer has focused on the economy and immigration as two of his top priorities throughout his campaign. 

While Lyerly has focused heavily on reproductive health issues, Wied has highlighted the U.S.-Mexico border. He has said that immigration policy was better under Trump, and that he would support finishing Trump’s border wall. He said he also supports reimplementing the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires migrants seeking asylum to remain in Mexico until their U.S. immigration court date

“I believe in legal immigration, but right now we have to close this border,” Wied said during the debate. “This administration, right now… is a tragedy.”

When it comes to the economy, Wied has said that he supports lowering taxes, including for businesses and wants to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which Democrats have complained unfairly benefited the rich. He has also said that government spending has led to inflation and he wants to work to decrease it.

“Inflation is really a tax and it’s a tax that affects the poor and the middle class,” Wied said. 

When it comes to the congressional race, Soucek said Wied has been doing a good job articulating the Republican message on those two issues. 

The county party, Soucek said, has been working to deliver a win for the Republican candidates up and down the ballot, including Wied and Trump, by knocking doors and making phone calls. She said that she thinks Wied has been focusing a little less on his Trump endorsement in the general election campaign.

“I think he felt it was going to be helpful to him in the primary. He definitely supports President Trump, but I think that was a strategy he felt would be beneficial to him… Obviously it seemed to work. Now, I think his approach has been, ‘We’re going to talk about all these issues that are impacting everyday Wisconsinites,’ and really, you know, broaden his message more,” Soucek said. 

When it comes to the presidential election, she said that she also recognizes the responsibility that comes with Door County serving as a “bellwether” in the presidential election. The county has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1996. 

“There’s just two very different paths and different views on America and where we should be going, and so for Republicans there are many different issues that we feel like if we don’t win …. it’s going to be hard to reverse… Look at illegal immigration and just over 10 million people and maybe more that have come across the border,” Soucek said.  

Soucek said she is feeling “pretty good” about Wied keeping the seat in Republican hands. She noted that Republican candidates down ballot tend to outperform the top of the ticket, including when Gallagher won in the district.

“I’m not going to take anything for granted. We don’t want to assume anything, so we’re going to all continue to work hard for all of our candidates, but in our area, I do feel fairly confident that we’ll be able to get him across the finish line,” Soucek said.

Lyerly, however, is banking that Wied’s alignment with Trump won’t connect with voters in the district.

“My opponent is an extremist. He is not someone who is independent, and in fact, if you look at his yard signs, they don’t even lead with his name,” Lyerly told the Examiner. Some of Wied’s  yard signs feature his Trump endorsement above his name. “That is not what the people of this region want. They want a moderate.”

In recent weeks, Lyerly has sought to emphasize that she is an “independent thinker.” 

In a recent campaign ad, Lyerly led with her support for reproductive health care access and Wied’s openness to allowing states to decide to implement bans, and then said she would also work to “secure our border,” ban price gouging and protect Second Amendment rights.

Lyerly has said the bipartisan border security bill, which failed to advance out of the Senate after Trump urged Republicans to kill it, would have started to solve some of the problems with immigration as it would have funded 1,500 new personnel in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and created a more efficient path to citizenship for some. She has said she would work in Congress to help stop fentanyl from coming into the country. During the debate, Wied said the bipartisan immigration bill “didn’t go far enough.”

When it comes to addressing the economy, Lyerly has said she supports expanding the child tax credit, lowering taxes on the middle class and raising taxes for more wealthy Americans. 

“It’s easy to pigeonhole me, as an OB-GYN doctor, as someone who only cares about reproductive rights, but that couldn’t be further from the truth,” Lyerly said.

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Lawrence University student Megan Eisenstein (left) speaking at a reproductive rights roundtable in Appleton last week as Emily Tseffos (right), a Democratic Assembly candidate and chair of the Outagamie County Democratic party chair, listens. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)

FOX VALLEY — Democrat Emily Tseffos was stood up by her incumbent opponent Rep. Dave Murphy (R-Greenville), who is seeking his sixth term in the state Assembly, twice before she launched her campaign for Wisconsin’s 56th Assembly District.

The first time, Tesffos, a mother of three, said she got a babysitter and sat waiting at a restaurant in the district but he never showed up. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, she said she scheduled a second meeting. Then, it happened again.

“I was like, we pay your salary, sir, and you are supposed to be listening to people, even if it’s not aligned with what you believe to be true,” Tseffos, who also serves as chair of the Outagamie County Democratic Party, said. She said she later spoke with Murphy after visiting his office in the Wisconsin State Capitol (She was already there for a meeting about Child Care Counts). “I threw my hat in the ring shortly after that. We deserve better and I’m trying to run a campaign that reminds people that we deserve better.”

Outagamie County alongside Brown and Winnebago Counties make up Wisconsin’s ‘BOW’ counties — a growing population center in the Fox Valley that includes the cities of Green Bay and Appleton.

The battleground region could play a role in determining control of Wisconsin’s state Legislature as several newly competitive seats are up for grabs under recently adopted maps. Fox Valley voters could also determine the results of competitive federal races, including the presidential election. (The counties were identified by Politico as helping President Joe Biden win in 2020.) 

The region has been trending less red in recent elections, and Democrats are hoping to accelerate that trend this election year up and down the ballot.

Outagamie County

“This is a super purple county, so the fact that we’re in the battleground state of the moment but then in a county that, for the first time in 15 years, went blue for [Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet] Protasiewicz — like, that’s huge to us,” Tseffos said. “So we recognize the responsibility of making sure we’re getting every single progressive and Democrat and independent that aligns with the Democratic ideals to turn out in November.”

Former President Donald Trump won Outagamie County in 2020 with 53.8% of the vote. Biden had 43.9%, representing an improvement for the Democratic candidate when compared to 2016. During the 2022 midterms, unsuccessful Republican candidate Tim Michels carried the county with almost 53% of the vote, while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers received almost 46%.

The following spring the county swung in favor of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose campaign focused heavily on restoring abortion rights, with 51.5% voting for her over conservative former Justice Dan Kelly.

The 56th Assembly District, which includes part of Outagamie County and Waupaca County, is not one of Democrats’ top target seats to flip, and CN Analysis rates the district as “Solid R”. Still, Tseffos has been knocking doors there every day. 

On Friday last week, Tseffos drove 30 minutes outside of Appleton to Lebanon, Wis., a small town in Waupaca County, to knock on people’s doors in a rural part of the district. 

“Just talking politics with strangers,” Tseffos would say when someone had a look of confusion by her presence. Sometimes she would joke about how that’s what everyone wants to do on a Friday. It was her way of easing into conversations with people at their front doors, in their yards and as they walked their dogs.

After breaking the ice, Tseffos asked people about the issues that matter the most to them and tried to find common ground. She listened to their concerns, then made her case for why they should vote for her — and other Democrats — next month. 

Tim, an older white man who was in his garage when Tseffos walked up his driveway, said divided politics was a big concern for him, and that he was planning to vote a straight Democratic ticket. 

“I’m tired of the Republicans,” he told Tseffos. By the end of the conversation, he agreed to let Tseffos put one of her yard signs in his front yard, but declined a Harris-Walz sign. He said his neighbor is a Republican and he wanted to keep things civil.

Tseffos heard about concerns about the state of roads from multiple people, and she told them she could be the “squeaky wheel” that would help get those projects done. A Trump voter spoke to her about his concerns about immigration, and how he thought the border was more secure during Trump’s presidency. She tried to steer the conversation towards state-level issues, including education, to see if she could get him to split his ticket. 

A couple of people said they didn’t have any concerns or weren’t planning on voting in which case Tseffos gave them her spiel and tried to convince them that they should vote. She told these voters about her support for increasing public education funding, including special education funding, improving birth control affordability and accessibility and that she generally wants to work on bringing people together.

At the last door, Tseffos spoke to an older couple, Dale and Janice, who said they were Christians and don’t believe in abortion except for in extreme cases.

“We don’t like abortion,” Janice said at one point in the conversation. “There have been millions of babies tossed aside.”

Tseffos told the couple that she was a “fellow Christian,” who wouldn’t entertain abortion for herself, and as a mother, she knows “how precious life is.” However, as a victim of sexual violence, she said she also knows how terrible the world can be. She emphasized that bans could have an outsized impact on women late in pregnancy, who “desperately” want to have a baby, but are dealing with severe complications.

“That’s the problem with bans for me,” Tseffos said to the couple, adding that heartbeat bills are also problematic for her. 

In the rest of the conversation, they touched on the cost of child care, school and the need for the inclusion of rural voices in government. Tseffos said, reflecting on the conversation, that she felt like she made progress because she was able to explain her thinking to them.

Winnebago County 

Vice President Kamala Harris came to Ripon, Wisconsin, which sits just south of Winnebago County, last week to hold a rally with Liz Cheney, who made a pitch to Republican voters who don’t like Trump that they should support Harris. Chair of the Winnebago County Democratic Party Marcia Steele told the Examiner during the rally that enthusiasm for Harris has been unbelievable. Steele has served as party chair on and off for about 20 years. 

“If it comes down to Wisconsin, more than likely would come down to Winnebago County, Brown County and Outagamie County… so we are very fortunate that we’re starting to get more enthusiasm in our area,” Steele said.

Steele said that the enthusiasm is helping, especially as Democrats seek to flip seats by running candidates in newly created districts in the state legislative races. A lot of volunteers are showing up to knock doors and make phone calls, she said. 

“We’ve had… people that have never done it before. It’s just unbelievable — unbelievable. And the older people that have been doing it for a long time, recognize it and just keep saying, yes, sign me up for another shift,” Steele said. “In the Fox Valley, we’ve got the new 18th Senate District, which we can make it blue, which would be great, and then we’ve got the new 53rd [Assembly District], which we could make that blue, so it’ll be huge for the Legislature going in to have more people than it just all being a gerrymandered state.”

The 18th Senate District is made up of Appleton in Outagamie County and Menasha, Neenah and Oshkosh in Winnebago County. Kris Alfheim, a member of the Appleton Common Council, is running for the 18th Senate District against Republican Anthony Phillips, a cancer physician who wants to keep the district red. 

The 53rd Assembly District encompasses Neenah, Menasha and part of Appleton. Democrat Duane Shukoski, a Neenah retiree, faces Republican Dean Kaufert, the former Neenah mayor and a former Assembly member.

The two races are some of Democrats’ top targets as they battle to gain more seats in the state Legislature. Republicans currently hold a 64-seat majority in the 99-seat Assembly and a 22-seat supermajority in the 33-seat Senate. 

“If we can flip the Assembly or at least be close this year,… and get us closer to the Senate [majority] in 2026, we can be the forward Wisconsin it was when I moved here in ‘89,” Steele, who is originally from Michigan, said. 

Reproductive rights

Reproductive health issues are one of the issues that Democrats in the area are hoping will bring voters out to the polls. Tseffos was surprised to see the large margin that Protasiewicz won by in Outagamie County in April 2023. 

“Fair maps and reproductive health… that’s what they kept beating down,” Tseffos said. “It made us realize locally — continue to talk about reproductive health and what that means to people and what the realities are for folks.” 

After her daily door knocking last week, Tseffos joined Alfheim and Shukoski at a roundtable event in Appleton to talk about reproductive health issues.

Lawrence University student Megan Eisenstein, who attended the event, explained that when Roe v. Wade was overturned, it changed the way she felt about going to school in Wisconsin. She’s from Illinois.

“I felt pretty safe there to make any choices that I needed to reproductive health-wise, but I knew that I was going to a state where I wasn’t able to make those choices after Roe v. Wade was overturned, and so I started to really dread going to college as a whole,” Eisenstein said. 

Eisenstein, who is social chair for her campus’s college Democrats group and also interns with the state party, told the Examiner that she became politically active in 2022 after starting school. 

“I didn’t really see politics as being something where you could actually make a difference,” Eisenstein said. “Coming here to Wisconsin, where every single voice matters, every door you knock matters, it really inspired me to get a little more involved.” 

This will be her first time voting in a presidential election, and she has also been helping knock doors for Alfheim and other candidates. She said the issue is a good “rallying cry” for people.

“It serves as the foundation for a lot of liberal values, and so it becomes about more than just reproductive freedom, and it also becomes about freedom for other things, and also for caring for people who might not be like you,” Eisenstein said. 

Democratic candidates in the district emphasized their support for access to abortion, birth control, infertility treatments and control of their health decisions. 

“Democrats get it — people don’t want politicians in Madison or anywhere else making their personal health decisions for them,” Alfheim said. She said she would work towards restoring women’s access to reproductive health care if elected.

During the roundtable in Appleton, Alfheim sought to differentiate her position from her opponent Phillips. She commented on  Trump’s running mate JD Vance, that some Republican candidates’ public and private comments on reproductive health differ, and she sees this with her opponent, whom she described as “anti-choice.”

The Phillips campaign declined an interview request from the Wisconsin Examiner. On his campaign website, Phillips lists “Advocating for a culture of Life to protect the lives of the unborn” as one of the issues that matter to him. He previously told the Examiner that he would support a referendum on the issue, and believes people would favor some level of restrictions.

“You don’t get to take away what you say in private amongst your peers and then make me think it’s OK out here,” Alfheim said. “That’s an Integrity issue. We should be whoever we are. Own how you feel and be strong enough to say it out loud every time… We have seen it with everyone. They are clearly stating they are against it and then they are slowly backing away.” 

Brown County

Brown County — home to the Green Bay Packers — is the last of the three competitive counties in the region where Democrats are aiming to improve their margins.

In 2016, Trump won the county with 52% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton only garnered 41%. Trump won the county, again, in 2020 with 52.7% of the vote. Biden got 45.5%, representing an improvement for Democrats compared to 2016.

During the 2022 midterms, unsuccessful Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels carried the county with 51% of the vote, while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers received 47%. The following spring the county swung in favor of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose campaign focused heavily on abortion, with 51.5% voting for her over conservative former Justice Kelly. 

“We joke a lot in the office, ‘Welcome to the political epicenter of the country,’” Christy Welch, who chairs the county Democratic Party and is running for the state Assembly, said. “It is pretty wild… [it’s] the largest swing county in this critical state and this battle between the potential end of democracy or just being able to keep building on everything Biden-Harris got going.” 

The region has had several visits from the Harris-Walz campaign. Vice presidential candidate Tim Walz plans to campaign in Green Bay next week, according to a media advisory issued Thursday. Other surrogates including U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and First Lady Jill Biden have also campaigned in the area.

Welch said population growth contributes to the changing political cast of the city but that there are also a lot of people who are opposed to the direction the Republican party has taken.

“I’m knocking a lot of doors and I have run into so many people that tell me that they used to vote Republican but they just don’t want anything to do with the Republican party, the way it’s operating today, and so they’re voting for Democrats,” Welch said. “The divisiveness and not focusing on actual policies and solutions, just always looking backward and blaming. They don’t want to have anything to do with that.” 

Welch is also running in a competitive race against Republican Benjamin Franklin, a De Pere business owner, for the 88th Assembly District, which includes Bellevue, Allouez and De Pere. 

In the Legislature, Welch said she has been speaking with voters about the cost of groceries, housing, health care and child care. Her priorities for the Legislature overlap with these issues. She said she wants to increase public education funding and continue funding for the state’s Child Care Counts program. She said she also wants Wisconsin to take the federal Medicaid expansion and to repeal the state’s 1849 law, which caused all abortions to cease in the state for more than a year after Roe v. Wade was overturned. 

Through door knocking, Welch said that she has been able to let some voters know about the new legislative maps.

“Not everyone pays as close attention and some people just didn’t realize… It is nice to let people know, who consider themselves Democrats and are not totally in the loop on the maps, what that means. We’re definitely going to pick up more seats. Hopefully, we’re going to get the majority. That gives them some hope too,” Welch said.

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