Gov. Tim Walz speaks after the end of the special session in June Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at the Minnesota State Capitol. (Photo by Nicole Neri/Minnesota Reformer)

Gov. Tim Walz made it clear he intends to run for an unprecedented third, four-year term in front of a group of a 100 or so Democratic donors Tuesday, according to two people who were there. 

In his speech at the Iron Ranger bar in St. Paul, Walz said something to the effect of “you’re all here making contributions, and you probably know I’m not going to run off to Mexico with your money, so look out for an announcement,” according to a source who attended the fundraiser and whose account was confirmed by another person there. 

“He made it clear he is moving in that direction,” said a person in attendance. 

The Reformer spoke to four people who were at the fundraiser or who have spoken to Walz about his plans in recent days. They were granted anonymity because they were not authorized by their employers to speak publicly.

Walz has also told several people privately but definitively that he will run again, and he will make a campaign announcement next week.

A Walz spokesman declined to comment. 

A DFL source who was at the event said Walz was thrown off by the June killing of Rep. Melissa Hortman, who was a friend and governing partner. But the recent mass shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church, where schoolchildren were gathered for a celebratory Mass, “lit a fire in him” because he wants to provide leadership during another vulnerable moment in Minnesota history. 

Despite the advantages of incumbency, a robust fundraising operation and his own natural political skills, winning a third term won’t be easy. 

Walz would have to defend a lengthy record, during which he’s governed during some of the state’s worst crises: The pandemic and resulting academic declines; the murder of George Floyd and the uprising and rioting that followed; a spike in crime that has since subsided; emerging fiscal instability; and, finally, the political violence that took the life of Hortman and her husband Mark and badly wounded state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette. 

Another crisis has been state government’s own making: A wave of fraud in public programs is sure to be a centerpiece of the Republican campaign against him. 

Rep. Kristin Robbins, a Republican candidate for governor from Maple Grove and currently chair of the Minnesota House’s fraud prevention committee, said Walz has allowed rampant fraud in his own agencies.

“A third Walz term would be a disaster, and I’m stepping up to make sure that doesn’t happen,” Robbins said in a statement to the Reformer. “I am committed to stopping the fraud, restoring fiscal responsibility and bringing back common-sense leadership so the state works for Minnesotans, not against them.”

Scott Jensen, the 2022 GOP nominee for governor, and Kendall Qualls, an army veteran and health care executive, are also running as GOP candidates. In a statement, Qualls said, “Walz’s first two terms as governor have been nothing but a failure.” 

Recent polling suggests that Walz remains popular with Minnesotans, but they are less pleased with the idea of him running for a third term. A June KSTP poll found that only 43% of Minnesotans surveyed say he should run again.

Despite Walz’s challenges, he has also enjoyed the highest of highs: A surprisingly easy 2022 reelection and a Democratic-Farmer-Labor trifecta that resulted in a bevy of legislative victories, from free school meals to drivers licenses for undocumented people, legal marijuana to huge investments in transportation and housing. He parlayed that record and a few high-profile national media appearances to emerge as Kamala Harris’ surprising pick to be her vice presidential nominee. 

A national media and public speaking tour earlier this year fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, but he’s already said he won’t run if he wins a third term. 

The last time Minnesota voters were faced with a governor seeking a third term, they rejected Iron Range Democrat Gov. Rudy Perpich in 1990.  

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Just hours after Minnesotans learned that Democratic House leader Melissa Hortman had been assassinated, right-wing influencer Collin Rugg, who has 1.8 million followers on X, posted a report that hinted that she’d been killed because of a recent vote on ending undocumented adults’ ability to enroll in MinnesotaCare, a subsidized health insurance for the working poor.

Mike Cernovich, another right-wing influencer who has 1.4 million followers on X, took Rugg’s post and amped it up, but in the “just asking questions” style of many conspiracy theories:

“Did Tim Walz have her executed to send a message?”

They were deeply ignorant about the MinnesotaCare issue.

Walz and Hortman — who was instrumental in passing legislation allowing undocumented people to sign up for MinnesotaCare as speaker of the House in 2023 — negotiated a compromise with Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature to end eligibility for adults, but keep it for children. They did so to win necessary Republican support in the 67-67 House to pass a state budget. Without it, state government would have shut down on July 1.

Both Hortman and Walz signed the compromise agreement in mid-May. This week, Hortman spoke tearfully about how difficult the vote was for her, but she was bound to vote yes on the issue because of the prior agreement.

Rugg and Cernovich’s posts were shared widely and just the start of the disinformation.

Once law enforcement sources began revealing a suspect, right-wing influencers ran with an insignificant detail: That Vance Luther Boelter was a “Walz appointee.”

Like many states, but even more so here, Minnesota is home to hundreds of nonpartisan and bipartisan boards and commissions, which are composed of thousands of people who typically win the appointment by simply volunteering. There are currently 342 open positions on Minnesota boards and commissions. Boelter was appointed to the Workforce Development Council by Walz’s predecessor Gov. Mark Dayton and reappointed by Walz.

It was the equivalent of calling a Sunday school volunteer an “appointee of the bishop.”

No matter, the Murdoch media machine, specifically the New York Post, had their headline: “Former appointee of Tim Walz sought….”

Cernovich had his greasy foil hot dog wrapper and began constructing a hat:

“The Vice President candidate for the Democrat party is directly connected to a domestic terrorist, that is confirmed, the only question is whether Tim Walz himself ordered the political hit against a rival who voted against Walz’s plan to give free healthcare to illegals.”

Walz had no such plan. He had signed an agreement to end eligibility for undocumented adults.

Joey Mannarino, who has more than 600,000 followers on X, was more crass:

“Rumor has it she was preparing to switch parties. The Democrats are VIOLENT SCUM.”

It was a ridiculous “rumor.” One of the last photos of Hortman alive was an image of her at the Democratic-Farmer-Labor’s big annual fundraising event, the Humphrey-Mondale dinner, which took place just hours before her assassination.

No matter, Cernovich wanted his new friends in federal law enforcement to act:

“The FBI must take Tim Walz into custody immediately.”

Finally, fresh off his humiliating defeat at the hands of President Donald Trump, world’s richest man Elon Musk quote-tweeted someone again falsely alleging Hortman was killed by “the left”  and added:

“The far left is murderously violent.” 

The suspect’s “hit list,” according to an official who has seen the list, comprised Minnesotans who have been outspoken in favor of abortion rights. CNN reported that it also included several abortion clinics, which doesn’t sound like the work of “the left.”

Right-wing influencers marred Hortman’s death and smeared Walz on a pile of lies.

In a different, saner world, they would be humiliated and slink away. But the smart money is that during the next moment of national crisis and mourning, they will again lie for profit.

Minnesota Reformer is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Minnesota Reformer maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor J. Patrick Coolican for questions: info@minnesotareformer.com.