Since their peak less than three years ago, opioid overdose deaths dropped nearly by half as of October, according to a Stateline analysis. The drop comes as a shrinking fentanyl supply has made the drug weaker and less deadly and volunteer efforts get more people into treatment.

The weaker fentanyl tracks to a crackdown on materials used to make fentanyl in China around the time U.S. deaths started dropping in 2023. Some experts see it as a welcome, but possibly temporary, break for states in a scourge that boosted crime as people who are using the drugs sometimes fall into homelessness and steal to support fentanyl habits.

The numbers and rates of opioid overdose deaths fell for all races between 2023 and 2026, according to more detailed data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by Stateline. That’s in contrast to an earlier trend from 2019 to 2023, when rates dropped only among white people and rose sharply among Black and Indigenous Americans.

Ohio had the nation’s largest decrease since mid-2023, when the nation’s opioid overdose deaths peaked. Ohio has seen fewer deaths but more risky behavior lately as fentanyl supplies dry up and people turn to substitutes tainted by animal tranquilizers.

Ohio is seeing a difference in the bottom line, said Erin Reed, director of RecoveryOhio, the state agency charged with reducing overdose deaths.

“We’re seeing things you would expect — like reductions in emergency department visits and reductions in Medicaid costs,” Reed said. “But we’re also seeing a positive impact on violent crime and recidivism, and I think this is really, really encouraging. At the end of the day, people want to be safe.”

Sarah Beckman, 36, stopped using illicit drugs 11 years ago when she learned she was pregnant with her first child. Now she works through Hamilton County’s Quick Response Team to help Ohio residents who use fentanyl.

When overdoses peaked a few years ago, the team started spending more time talking to people after overdoses.

“We saw overdoses were going up and up, and going out two days a week was not enough. We expanded it to full time,” Beckman said. “That window is so small. It has to be kind of a perfect storm for an individual to be, like, ‘OK, I’m ready.’”

Even if people aren’t ready for treatment, kindness can help build trust and prevent some of the thefts and arrests that lead to police involvement, as it did for her when she stole to get money for drugs and was charged with resisting arrest, she said.

“When you’re in the midst of addiction you need help with everything. For us it’s just meeting people where they are and saying, ‘Hey, are you hungry? Do you have enough clothes?’” Beckman said. “You’re showing consistency and empathy, and by doing that you can slowly move someone closer toward accepting overdose prevention materials or hopefully, eventually, treatment.”

Nationally there were 46,066 opioid overdose deaths in the year ending with October, barely more than half the peak of 86,075 in June 2023 and the lowest since April 2017. The numbers, often delayed because of the process of determining overdose deaths, were released this month based on information available March 1 by the federal National Vital Statistics System.

Deaths fell the most in Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia and Florida since June 2023, but increased in Alaska, Arizona and Nevada.

In Ohio, annual deaths fell 63% from about 4,300 in June 2023 to about 1,600 as of October 2025.

As in many other states, deaths in Ohio started falling before 2023, but then dropped more sharply — 34% in that year alone, said Reed.

Arizona and Nevada, however, saw deaths increase since the national peak in 2023. Arizona’s border crossings with Mexico are among the largest fentanyl smuggling points in the country, with fentanyl traffic dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico. One Arizona crossing, the Port of Lukeville, was the site of the largest fentanyl seizure in U.S. Customs and Border Protection history: 4 million fentanyl pills hidden in a trailer brought to the border by a 20-year-old U.S. citizen in July 2024.

The state’s notorious summer heat exacerbates overdose deaths, according to recent research.

Plentiful supply from the border may help explain continued increases in Arizona, said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association, a public health workers organization.

Political infighting over how to spend the state government’s share of $1.2 billion in opioid settlement money hasn’t helped, he said. The state attorney general, governor and legislature have gone to court over plans to use some of the money to balance the state budget.

“Many other states are way ahead of Arizona when it comes to distributing the state portion of the opioid settlement dollars,” Humble said. “It could be there are fewer interventions because the state dollars are locked up. There’s this dispute in Arizona over who gets to decide. Many other states are not having this jurisdictional issue.”

On the national stage, opioid overdose deaths fell across demographic groups. Even older Americans, whose overdose death numbers had surged earlier even as they fell for other groups, saw a 25% decline from 2023 to 2025, about half the national decrease, according to the Stateline analysis.

In a sign of a weaker fentanyl supply, the Drug Enforcement Administration said in December that 29% of the pills it seized in fiscal 2025 contained a lethal dose of fentanyl, down from 76% in fiscal 2023.

“These reductions in potency and purity correlate with a decline in synthetic opioid deaths,” the DEA said.

Keith Humphreys, a health policy professor at Stanford University who testified to the U.S. Senate in 2023 about increases in accidental overdose deaths among older adults, told Stateline that a “fentanyl supply shock” originating in China made fentanyl supplies weaker. That would include fentanyl-tainted cocaine, which had caused many deaths among older Black men, Humphreys said.

“This likely includes some long-term cocaine users who had the bad luck to get cocaine that had fentanyl in it,” Humphreys said in an interview. White women are more likely to overdose on prescription drugs in order to commit suicide, a trend that would be less likely to be affected by fentanyl supply, he added.

Humphreys and a team of other researchers, in a Science magazine report published in January, found a “drought” of fentanyl that could be traced on the social media platform Reddit.

Elevated mentions of a “drought” started in May 2023, nearly the same time as overdoses began to drop, their research found. Also, the Drug Enforcement Administration reported decreasing potency in seized fentanyl and fewer seizures, both indicating a shortage of supply.

“Drug dealers often adapt to supply shortages by lowering purity more than raising prices,” the report stated. The likely reason: China cracked down on source chemicals for making illicit fentanyl. Such “precursor” chemicals typically arrive from China and are processed in Mexico before being smuggled into the U.S. as illicit fentanyl.

“Actions by the government of China that resulted in greater scrutiny of production and export of precursor chemicals, including the removal of online advertisements and several marketplaces,” may have been what caused the drought in fentanyl and thus saved lives, the report concluded.

The DEA concluded that Mexican fentanyl producers were cutting potency because they were having a hard time finding source chemicals from China, the report noted. That makes it likely supply is the biggest reason for the drop in deaths, not enhanced U.S. border searches or other actions such as the Trump administration’s attacks on drug boats off the South American coast. Those boats are typically used to transport cocaine rather than fentanyl.

Data shows a similar drop in overdose deaths in Canada, where fentanyl supplies are usually produced from Chinese chemicals inside the country rather than smuggled in. That’s another reason to suspect that China’s crackdown affected both countries, despite differing policies and law enforcement strategies.

In their Science article, Humphreys and the other researchers noted that the recent decline in deaths offers the chance to prepare for future opioid-related problems.

“The incentive to restore the fentanyl trade will persist as long as there is demand for the drug,” the authors wrote. “It may be wise to use the current drought as an opportunity to ramp up the prevention and treatment programs that have evidence of decreasing demand.”

There have been some more recent upticks in death numbers.

Colorado saw an increase in synthetic opioid overdose deaths starting in late 2024, according to a Common Sense Institute report released this month. The institute is nonpartisan but has ties to the Republican Party, and concluded the state needs stiffer penalties for fentanyl possession and distribution, similar to Texas law. Opioid overdose deaths in Colorado are down 9% since the national peak in 2023, according to the Stateline analysis.

In Ohio, the recent trend among people who use fentanyl is to find pills spiked with an animal tranquilizer that causes severe addiction, said Beckman, of the Hamilton County Quick Response Team. Three recent clients survived overdoses but required emergency treatment, she said.

“We can educate people in the community: ‘Hey, your drugs are not what you thought they were, that’s why you’re experiencing all these weird side effects,’” Beckman said. “These substances are so severe that a traditional detox hasn’t been able to handle them.”

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

Criminal justice has emerged as one of the most wide-ranging and politically charged areas on lawmakers’ agendas in this year’s state legislative sessions. Across the country, legislators are weighing proposals that affect nearly every part of the criminal justice system, including policing, gun policy, solving crimes, sentencing, prison oversight and reentry support.

The breadth of legislation reflects how deeply crime policy intersects with daily life, shaping public safety, civil rights, state spending and the scope of law enforcement. It also comes amid a shifting national conversation about crime itself. While violent crime rose during the pandemic, recent data shows declines in many categories, despite continued public concern.

According to Gallup’s most recent annual crime poll, Americans’ perceptions of crime improved in 2025. Approximately 49% of adults now say crime is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the United States, and the same share believe crime has increased in the past year. Both figures are down significantly from 2024 and are at their lowest levels since at least 2018.

Still, crime remains a top political issue, particularly in statehouses where lawmakers may face pressure to respond to high-profile incidents and constituent fears.

Gun policy

Firearm-related legislation has moved quickly in several states, with lawmakers pursuing sharply different approaches that reflect regional politics and partisan control.

In Democratic-led states, lawmakers have advanced proposals aimed at tightening restrictions on firearms.

Virginia House Democrats approved a sweeping package of bills this month that would restrict access to assault-style weapons, tighten firearm storage and transfer rules, limit where guns can be carried in public and expand civil liability for the gun industry. The bills are now being considered in the Senate.

Maryland lawmakers are debating a measure that would prohibit the manufacture, sale, purchase or transfer of certain handguns that can be converted into automatic weapons using an illegal accessory known as a pistol converter.

The bill doesn’t name specific firearm models, but it would effectively ban secondhand sales of some popular discontinued guns. In urging its members to oppose the bill, the National Rifle Association’s legislative arm says on its website, “These conversion devices are already illegal, yet this proposal targets responsible firearm owners rather than criminals who ignore existing law.”

But sponsors noted that the measure would exempt current owners of the affected firearms and argued that it doesn’t punish responsible firearm owners. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott led a rally last week in favor of the bill, saying it would reduce homicides. And a high school student testified to lawmakers about her fears of a school shooting.

Other states have focused on regulating firearm sales.

New Mexico senators passed legislation restricting certain firearm transactions, while lawmakers in New York and Washington state have proposed measures that would prohibit the production and possession of 3D-printing files used to manufacture gun parts to build so-called ghost guns.

Gun control advocates say 3D-printed guns are becoming more common, especially among young people. Just this week, a ghost gun was recovered after a student was shot inside a Maryland high school. The student’s injuries weren’t life threatening, and a suspect has been charged with attempted murder.

But some gun rights advocates say those measures go too far.

“We believe that making your own firearms, if you have the skills to do it, is an American tradition. It literally dates back to the founding of our country,” said Chris Stone, the director of state and local affairs for Gun Owners of America, one of the country’s largest gun advocacy groups. The group opposes bans on 3D-printing firearms.

Republican-led states are pushing in the opposite direction, removing specific firearm regulations, limiting local regulation, strengthening legal protections for gun shops and dismantling “gun-free” zones, such as areas near schools or inside government buildings.

South Dakota Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden signed a bill into law this week that deregulates gun silencers, or suppressors. These devices will be removed from the state’s definition of a controlled weapon.

In Georgia, lawmakers approved a ban that would keep local governments from adopting gun storage requirements. The bill has not yet been sent to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp for consideration.

In South Carolina, legislators have proposed a measure that would protect gun shops from being held liable in lawsuits when crimes are committed with products they sold, as long as the original sale was lawful. That bill remains in committee.

Florida lawmakers advanced legislation last month to lower the age to purchase long guns to 18. The West Virginia Senate also passed a bill that would allow 18- to 20-year-olds to carry concealed weapons without a permit, removing current training and licensing requirements for that age group.

New Hampshire and Wyoming legislators are considering proposals that would prohibit public colleges and universities from regulating whether students, faculty or visitors are able to carry concealed firearms and nonlethal weapons on campus.

Immigration and policing

Questions about the role of law enforcement — particularly in immigration enforcement — have become a flashpoint in state legislatures, as lawmakers debate how closely local and state agencies should cooperate with federal authorities.

In some states, lawmakers are moving to require or expand cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Bills in Alabama, Arizona, Iowa and Kentucky would encourage or mandate that state or local law enforcement agencies collaborate with ICE or expand officers’ authority to question or detain people over their immigration status. Supporters argue the measures are necessary to enforce federal law and improve public safety.

Other states are taking the opposite approach. In Virginia this month, Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger ended a 287(g) agreement with ICE that allowed state police and corrections officers to assist the agency with certain federal immigration enforcement functions. Spanberger, who has a background in law enforcement, had promised in her campaign to end the agreement, saying she wants policing agencies to focus on their core duties.

The move drew sharp criticism from state Republican leaders, with GOP lawmakers arguing that the decision prioritizes politics over public safety and could expose the state to retaliation from the Trump administration.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, introduced a similar proposal last month that appears to be gaining more support from police and elected officials.

The Maryland House and Senate this month also overwhelmingly approved bills that would prohibit 287(g) agreements between local police and federal immigration agencies. Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is expected to sign them. Several local law enforcement officials across the state have urged the governor to veto the measures, arguing that ending the agreements would lead to more federal immigration enforcement activity and higher crime rates.

Beyond immigration, legislatures also are grappling with broader questions about policing authority and accountability.

In Indiana, lawmakers approved legislation expanding the role of the National Guard’s military police in certain law enforcement functions, giving the governor authority that some Democrats say could be abused.

Iowa lawmakers are considering a proposal that would eliminate affirmative action and anti-bias training requirements for police officers.

A bill in Utah would create the Violent Crime Clearance Rate Fund, which would provide grants to law enforcement agencies to support efforts to improve the rate at which violent crimes are solved.

Sentencing and prison conditions

State legislatures also are revisiting what happens after arrest, with several states considering tougher penalties for certain crimes.

Iowa Republicans have proposed a 20-year mandatory minimum sentence for some repeat offenders.

Alabama lawmakers are considering a bill that would raise the base penalty for fleeing from police from a misdemeanor to a felony, with harsher penalties for repeat offenses and other aggravating factors.

The Kentucky House advanced a bill aimed at cracking down on street racing. It would impose penalties of up to 30 days in jail and $1,000 in fines, and allow vehicles used in the offense to be destroyed or auctioned to support the state’s crime victims compensation fund.

Other states are pursuing more rehabilitative approaches.

Lawmakers in Washington state are considering legislation that would give people serving long sentences a new pathway to release.

Oklahoma lawmakers have proposed a measure that would eliminate the requirement that a prison inmate serve a set amount of time before becoming eligible for good-time credits, which would also allow people awaiting transfer to prison to earn these credits sooner.

Last month, Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker signed the Clean Slate Act into law, paving the way for an estimated 1.7 million adults with nonviolent criminal records to have them automatically sealed beginning in 2029.

Juvenile justice debates also have been unfolding alongside these efforts.

States including Colorado, Utah, Missouri, Maryland and Kansas are reconsidering when young people can be charged as adults, how long they can be detained and what role rehabilitation should play.

In Kansas, for example, lawmakers are considering expanding judges’ authority to send youths to juvenile prison and increasing detention limits, moves that opponents say would reverse a decade of changes designed to keep low-risk youths out of custody.

In recent years, poor prison conditions and lax oversight have emerged as a bipartisan concern, driven in part by staffing shortages and the rising costs associated with incarceration.

Florida legislators are considering proposals that would create an independent ombudsman to monitor prison conditions. Alabama and Arizona lawmakers have filed measures that would address oversight of food services in prisons and fund the state’s independent prison oversight office, respectively.

Several states are working to expand death penalty options, both for crimes and for execution methods.

Alabama legislators passed a measure this month that would expand the death penalty to include child sex crimes. The bill is now awaiting the signature of Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who expressed her support for the proposal last month.

In Indiana, lawmakers considered a proposal that would add firing squad and gas as execution methods.

In New Hampshire, lawmakers are considering two Republican-backed bills that would reinstate the death penalty — nearly seven years after the state voted to abolish it. One bill would bring it back for homicide or sexual assault offenses against children under 13, while the other proposal would reinstate it for capital murder, which would combine the murder with aggravating circumstances.

Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte told reporters last fall she would like to see capital punishment restored in the state.

Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at ahernandez@stateline.org.