The potential for Republicans to lose the Senate majority in the next election cycle cast a shadow over the Wisconsin State Senate’s last regular day of work this legislative session. Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg) faced criticism from his members for bringing bills to a vote without a majority of support from his caucus and one longtime Republican announced his retirement.

Wisconsin Republicans currently hold an 18-seat majority in the 33-seat state Senate. The 17 odd-numbered seats will be up for election this year for the first time under the new maps adopted in 2024, which puts the majority in play this November. Democrats have not been in the Senate or Assembly majority since the 2009-10 session. 

LeMahieu drew fire from members of his own party for allowing votes on bills supported by Democrats to legalize sports betting in Wisconsin and to provide funding to the University of Wisconsin to help pay student athletes for their name, image and likeness. Some Republicans who opposed the bills said it would lead to LeMahieu losing his leadership position and to Republicans losing their Senate majority in November.

Sen. Steve Nass (R-Whitewater), who is one of the most conservative lawmakers in the state Senate and is retiring at the end of his term, said voters will hold Republican lawmakers “to account for selling out their interests” in November.

“The passage of these two unpopular bills will help pave the way to minority status for Republicans come November,” Nass, who has served in the Legislature since 1991, said in a statement.

Over the weekend, Sen. Chris Kapenga (R-Delafield) suggested to WISN 12 that LeMahieu could lose his leadership position if the Senate passed the bills by relying on Democratic votes. He said it was “shameful” that the Senate planned to take up the bills and that he was concerned by the lack of a “coalescence of the Republican votes.”

“Historically, usually a majority leader does not come back if he breaks the rule of 17,” Kapenga said, referring to an unwritten rule that requires obtaining the votes of 17 Republicans or an all-GOP majority to pass any bill through the Senate. “So, I hope the majority leader takes that into account.”

Last month at a WisPolitics lunch, LeMahieu said that the “rule of 17” was just “essentially what members use to try to kill bills that they don’t like.” He previously broke that informal rule to pass the 2025-27 state budget with Democratic votes.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester), the longest-serving Assembly speaker  in state history, who is retiring at the end of his term, defended LeMahieu’s work as leader including his decision to bring the NIL and sports-betting bills to the floor. He told reporters at a Tuesday WisPolitics event that those suggesting that LeMahieu would lose his job over it don’t “really know how the world works.”

“Sometimes you have to have things pass because it’s in the best interest of the state, and sometimes if you can’t convince people, you gotta find out how to get there,” Vos said. “I feel like the members in our chamber are sometimes a little bit more open to being persuaded than some of the Senate Republicans are. I have said the hardest job in the Capitol is being the Senate majority leader. It was under [now-U.S. Rep.] Scott Fitzgerald. It was under Devin LeMahieu, so I hope that people will respect the fact that he’s doing what he thinks is right.”

Vos also said during the event that a lack of action on data centers could affect the Senate’s chances to win a majority. 

“I learned long ago, after many years of frustration, no matter how hard the Assembly tries, the Senate is its own body and we have to accept that they’re going to do what they’re going to do and it’s nothing we can do about it,” Vos said. He added that it is sad the Senate wouldn’t be doing anything to regulate data centers because they are a huge area of concern. He described data centers as “valuable” because of the rise of artificial intelligence but that people should be protected from higher energy costs that could result from their rapid growth. 

“The state Senate should vote on the bill, especially if they want to get back in the majority,” Vos said. “The only other thing that I worry about — and our members have already taken a look so you could say we thought as hard as we could at data centers — but for people who don’t have that vote, I think they’re going to regret it come October.”

Recent polling by Marquette Law School on data centers found that 70% of Wisconsinites say the costs of large data centers are greater than the benefits they provide, while 29% say the benefits outweigh the costs. 

The data center bill passed by the Assembly would have implemented some state regulations on data centers built in Wisconsin, though Democrats criticized the bill, saying it wouldn’t effectively hold companies accountable, hold down electric rates for Wisconsinites or protect the environment. The bill did not make it onto the Senate’s final regular session floor calendar.

Vos is hopeful that state leaders will be able to find a compromise on property tax relief and school funding before the upcoming elections. Legislative leaders and Gov. Tony Evers have been discussing finding a way to use the $4.6 billion budget surplus, though Vos said an actual proposal is still up in the air. Discussions prior to the Assembly adjourning for the final time last month included talk of rebates, investments in the school levy tax credit by Republicans and investments in special education aid and school general aid by Evers.

Vos said that “nothing is off the table” but that the bill will not become a “mini budget.”

“It’s a negotiation, so we have to say what does the Senate need to have enough votes to be able to pass it? What does the governor need to be able to sign it? And what do we need in the Assembly?” Vos said, adding that the Legislature would likely try to have an extraordinary session “on something that’s just on tax relief or something that’s just on property taxes.” 

Vos also rejected a proposal from Democratic lawmakers over the weekend to spend about $1.3 billion on special education and general aid to schools. 

“The challenge that the Assembly Democrats have is that it’s been so long since any of them have been involved in governing that they are only about one-sentence press releases, and that’s what their proposal was yesterday,” Vos said. “It wasn’t serious in my mind.”

Asked about the greatest challenge to Republicans’ ability to win in November, Vos named President Donald Trump. He said Trump is motivating for “40 to 45%” of voters who are dedicated Republicans, but state-level Republicans’ chances will rely on the other 10% of voters who will need to be persuaded. He said Republicans need to show them that they can listen to the other side and get things done, adding that lawmakers have been able to pass tax breaks for seniors and utility bills and make some investments in priority areas while remaining conservative.

“We have to be able to tell that story and make sure people understand that what goes on in Washington, where it seems like a whole lot of arguing and not a lot of doing, isn’t where we’re at,” Vos said. “Sometimes because Donald Trump is so all-present in every single news cycle, it makes it very hard for us to get our message through.”

Vos said this will also apply to U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is the only Republican currently in the primary for governor. With Trump’s endorsement and other challengers having dropped out, the 7th CD U.S. representative will likely make it to the November general election. 

Vos also took a shot at the seven Democrats running for governor, saying they are all “minor” and collectively calling them the “seven dwarves.”

“You have Tom Tiffany, who is better known in about half of the state but the other half from basically Green Bay to Madison… and that’s the election schedule you want, so he’s got to figure out how to spend enough time and get well known enough to be able to win,” Vos said.

Another Republican retirement 

The departure of longtime lawmakers will also shape the election chances for Senate Republicans. Wisconsin Democrats need to win two additional seats in November to secure a majority, and incumbency carries significant weight, meaning that seats that have long been represented by Republicans becoming open could help Democrats’ chances. 

Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine) announced his retirement on Tuesday, marking the departure of a second incumbent in a district that will be key in determining control of the state Senate. 

Senate District 21 covers parts of Racine County, including the northern part of the city, and parts of Milwaukee County, including Franklin, Hales Corner, Greendale and Greenfield. According to an analysis by Marquette Law School fellow John Johnson, the district voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost the state of Wisconsin, by 1.2 percentage points and for U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin by 2.2 percentage points in 2024.

Wanggaard said in a statement he thought he would win in a reelection campaign and his heart “desperately” wants to run again, but his head is telling him “it’s time to retire.” He noted that he would be 78 at the end of the next term.

“My staff and colleagues worked with me to try to make something workable for the campaign and the next four years, but my health, and the health of my family will not allow me to put my all into this campaign, or serving the 21st District,” Wanggaard said. He said since his last election in 2022 he has lost three siblings, his daughter was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer and his brother had a heart attack and has dementia. “That weighs on me more than you can know.”

Sen. Rob Hutton (R-Brookfield), who represents one of the Democrats’ other top targets this fall, announced his retirement last month, as did Nass.

Will Karcz, communications director for the State Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, which is the fundraising arm of the Democratic Senate caucus, said in a statement about Wanggaard’s departure that it is “clear that members of the Republican caucus would rather retire than risk losing their seats or serving in a Republican minority.”

Ahead of Tuesday’s floor session, Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein (D-Middleton) criticized Republicans for planning to wrap up their work without taking action to address the rising cost of groceries, medications, rents or health insurance.

“Today is the last gasp of what has been a failed and dysfunctional Republican majority in this state Senate,” Hesselbein said. “We know that Wisconsin Democrats can win a majority of seats, and when we do, we will roll up our sleeves, get to work and focus like a laser on the issues that Wisconsinites and Wisconsin families care about.” 

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The Wisconsin State Capitol. Control of the state Assembly and Senate will be at stake in the 2026 November elections. (Photo by Baylor Spears/Wisconsin Examiner)

It is still early in a significant election year for Wisconsin, but the story of its state legislative races is “beginning to emerge,” John Johnson, a research fellow in Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, told the Wisconsin Examiner in a recent interview. Among  the developments helping to shape it are recently announced retirements of two Senate Republicans and campaign finance reports that show a Democratic advantage in the Senate and a Republican advantage in the Assembly. 

State Senate retirements and fundraising 

Republicans currently hold an 18-seat majority in the 33-seat state Senate, where the 17 odd-numbered seats will be up for election this year. Democrats need to win two additional seats in the state Senate to flip control of the body.

Lawmakers have slowly started to announce their plans. On Monday, Sen. Steve Nass (R-Whitewater), who has served in the Legislature since 1991 and is one of the most conservative lawmakers in the state Senate, announced he will not run for reelection. He said in a statement that the “time has come for a new fighter to take on the mission of preserving life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” for residents of Senate District 11. 

“It has been one of the greatest honors of my life to serve in the Wisconsin State Legislature representing the people of Southern Wisconsin,” Nass said. “I have always been bipartisan in my scorn of fiscal mismanagement and bureaucratic overreach regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats were in charge, since the affliction of Big Government is a disease that infects both parties in Madison.”

His district leans Republican. The three Assembly districts within his are represented by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester), Rep. Amanda Nedweski (R-Pleasant Prairie) and Rep. Tyler August (R-Walworth). 

Nass is the second Republican legislator to announce his  retirement in recent weeks. 

The State Senate Democratic Committee (SSDC), the fundraising arm of the caucus, said in a statement that his announcement “is yet another proof point that Republicans are expecting to lose control of the Senate in November” and are confronting the “reality of a Democratic majority.”

The SSDC has been laying the groundwork to flip the chamber over the last year, especially over the summer. In its recent campaign finance report, the SSDC reported raising $771,870 — more than two times what its Republican counterpart brought in — between July 1 and Dec. 31. According to the SSDC, that’s the most the committee has ever raised in a non-election year.

“Senate Democrats have the message, the fair maps, and the candidates to win a majority in November, and these fundraising numbers are proof of that,” the SSDC said in a statement. It ended the period with a $446,605 cash balance. 

The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate (CERS) reported raising $306,674 during the fundraising period. It spent $21,249, and ended the period with $728,682 cash-on-hand. 

The first Senate retirement announcement this year came from Sen. Rob Hutton (R-Brookfield), who represents Senate District 5. The district includes portions of Milwaukee County, encompassing West Allis and Wauwatosa, and Waukesha County, including Pewaukee, Brookfield and Elm Grove. 

Hutton’s exit is significant, Johnson says.

“That’s an essential target for Democrats to win if they want to take a majority of the state Senate,” Johnson said. “The Democrats have also recruited a quite strong challenger there.” 

Hutton said in a statement that the decision was “very difficult” but that “increasing personal and professional obligations have made it clear that stepping aside is the right decision at this time.” 

“I look forward to continuing to work hard in this final year and beyond to push for more needed reforms that streamline government, address affordability for families, support law enforcement and increase access to quality education, healthcare and economic opportunity for all Wisconsinites,” Hutton said. 

Hutton had reported raising $24,325 in his December campaign finance report, which included a $20,000 contribution from himself. 

The Democratic candidate running for Hutton’s seat, State Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa), who has served in the Assembly since 2019, raised $98,913 since her Senate campaign launched in July and had $114,471 cash-on-hand, according to her campaign finance report.

Vining raised $83,403 from individual contributions. The SSDC provided over $30,000 in in-kind contributions, including wages for campaign staff, consulting and printing. She is the only candidate in the race since Democrat Sarah Harrison, a Brookfield businesswoman, dropped her bid due in part to poor fundraising. 

Johnson said Vining is a strong candidate for Democrats because she is an Assembly incumbent, who has represented one-third of the state Senate district and has a proven track record of winning parts of the district.

Johnson tracks races across the state, but said “most of them don’t quite have the clarity of the 5th Senate District in terms of who the candidates will be.”

Incumbents Johnson said, have about a 4-point advantage in reelection races.

“A seat that would otherwise be like 50-50, you’d expect the incumbent to maybe get 52% in the last cycle,” Johnson said – resulting in a 52-48, 4-point win for the incumbent. “In 2024, it was worth a little bit more for Republicans than it was for Democrats.”

There are three other Senate districts considered targets.

Senate District 21 encompasses part of Racine County, including the northern part of the city, and part of Milwaukee County, including Franklin, Hales Corner, Greendale and Greenfield.

The incumbent, Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine), has served in the Senate for the last decade. He hasn’t announced yet whether he’ll run for reelection. 

After the recent retirement announcements of other Republican lawmakers the SSDC began pushing for Wanggaard’s  retirement: “Good news comes in three… C’mon @Vanwanggaard, you can do it!” the SSDC account posted on X. 

Johnson says that of all the Senate districts, SD 21 changed the most — meaning Wanggaard’s incumbency advantage is smaller than that of other incumbent candidates. 

“He has the fewest constituents who were previously represented by him and his district, which means that his incumbency advantage is worth less than it would be under his district as it previously existed,” Johnson said.

In recent campaign finance reports, Wanggaard reported raising $36,461 in the latter half of 2025 and having $46,319 in cash on-hand.

The Democratic challenger in the district is Trevor Jung, who is the city of Racine’s transit director. He reported raising $133,512 and ending the period with $129,265 in cash on-hand.

Another key district is Senate District 17, which encompasses Iowa, Lafayette, Green, Crawford and Grant counties as well as parts of Dane County and where longtime Republican incumbent Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) is outraising his SSDC-endorsed challenger.

Marklein, who is the co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee and has served in the Senate since 2014, reported raising $194,137 during the recent campaign finance filing period, of which $148,549 came from individual contributions. He reported spending $23,441 and having $741,753 in cash on-hand.

Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2022, reported raising $118,243, spending $4,741 and having $113,888 in cash on-hand at the end of the period. 

There are also two other Democratic candidates running: Corrine Hendrickson, who raised $13,081, spent $10,021 and had $3,059 in cash on-hand, and Lisa White, who reported raising $12,202, spending $15,966 and having $2,764 in cash on-hand. 

Senate District 31 is also considered a key district for legislative control. There, Democrats are seeking to protect incumbent Sen. Jeff Smith (D-Brunswick), who has served in the Senate since 2018. The district represents the entirety of Eau Claire County and parts of Dunn, Trempealeau and Chippewa counties.

Smith faces a challenge from Sen. Jesse James (R-Thorp), who was elected to the Senate in 2022, moved to stay in his district when legislative maps were redrawn and recently moved back to the area that is now represented by Smith. Smith reported raising $86,123 during the latter part of the year and having $153,493 in cash on-hand. James reported raising $42,817 during the period. He spent $3,355 and has $61,234 in cash on-hand.

“I would say the edge is still to Jeff Smith in that race, but less so than if he were against someone who is a political unknown,” Johnson says. 

Johnson also says he thinks total spending in each contested Senate race this year could easily reach $1 million.

Assembly GOP bring in $4 million haul as Dem challengers start emerging

Republicans currently hold a 54-seat majority in the 99-seat state Assembly. Democratic lawmakers need to hold all of their current seats in the Assembly and pick up five additional seats to flip the Assembly. 

Johnson says Democrats have a path but only if they “run the table” of competitive races. 

“There are demonstrably enough voters in those [key] districts who will vote for a Democrat, so that’s the optimistic case for Assembly Democrats. The optimistic case for Assembly Republicans is that Assembly Republican candidates tend to be more popular than other kinds of Republicans, and so that’s what they’re going to be counting on,” Johnson said. 

The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) outraised its Democratic counterpart, bringing in over $4 million during the most recent reporting period, with the majority of the total coming from two GOP megadonors. 

The committee reported raising a total of $4,210,809 and spending $42,351 and ending the year with $5,241,793 in cash on-hand. Billionaire donor Diane Hendricks gave over $1 million to the RACC in the latter half of 2026 and another billionaire, Elizabeth Uihlein, donated $3 million. 

The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC), the fundraising arm of the Assembly Democratic caucus, raised $1.44 million during the reporting period. According to the ADCC, the overall total it raised in 2025 — $1.78 million — is the most the committee has ever raised in an off-election year. 

The ADCC’s top donors included venture capitalist and LinkedIn cofounder Reid Garrett Hoffman, who gave $175,000, David Hall of Pewaukee, who gave $150,000, and Lynde Uihlein, who gave $100,000 (She also gave $100,000 to the SSDC).

Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) said in a statement that the fundraising numbers show that “voters are fed up with the partisan games from Legislative Republicans and ready for change” and a Democratic trifecta is within reach. She said they are working to make investments, hire on-the-ground staff and invest in incumbents’ campaigns to set Democrats up for success this year. 

With all 99 seats up for election in the Assembly, the candidate fields are also still taking shape. 

Democrats are investing early in the districts they need to protect. State Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska) reported raising $1,007,842 and $1 million of that was contributed by the ADCC.

“Just kind of shocking,” Johnson said of Doyle’s campaign finance report. “But he’s the most vulnerable Democrat.”

Doyle was first elected to the Assembly during a May 2011 special election and has been reelected since. He won another term in office in 2024 by just 223 votes against the Republican candidate.

One key district to watch is Assembly District 51, where incumbent Rep. Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville) recently announced that he will run for reelection.

Johnson said Novak is a candidate who “really, punches above his weight as a Republican in that district.”

“There have been a lot of years that Democrats thought they could win it, and Democrats all across the rest of the ticket won in that district, but Novak keeps on winning there,” Johnson said, adding that Novak is “probably one of the most moderate Republicans in the Assembly.” 

According to his campaign finance reporting, Novak raised $22,475 during the period and had $29,934 in cash on-hand. The majority of the funds — $20,000 — came from a contribution made by the RACC on Dec. 31.

Novak highlighted his work with Democrats in his press release, including with Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, to secure permanent funding for the Office of School Safety and to secure mental health funding for the UW system. He said that in another term in office he would work to address “affordability, budget responsibly and reduce tax burden, improve healthcare access and costs, and continue supporting our schools.” 

“Working across the aisle for common sense solutions is how I’ve always approached governing. We’ve been able to accomplish a lot to help address affordability, reduce the tax burden, support education, and reduce healthcare costs,” Novak said in a statement.

Johnson says the thing that may tip elections in these close seats are candidates’ personal connections to voters.

“There’s not a lot of daylight between members of the same party on any election these days, but these seats are close enough… that even a little bit of daylight — even a little bit of a, well, I’m mad at the Republicans, but I know Todd Novak. Like, we go to the same events. I see him talk. I trust him personally’ — even if that’s just a few 100 people, that can be the difference,” Johnson says.

With the support of the ADCC behind him, Ben Gruber, a Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Conservation Warden and President of AFSCME Local 1215, launched his campaign to challenge Novak last week. 

He criticized Novak and Marklein at his campaign launch, saying that Republican lawmakers’ decisions to not provide adequate funding to schools in the area have hurt the community. 

“I grew up here, and we’re raising our kids here. I want our kids to have the same opportunities we did growing up. The reality is because of incumbents like Todd Novak and Howard Marklein they don’t have those opportunities,” Gruber said when he announced his campaign. “In 2019 when my oldest daughter was ready to go to kindergarten, she was faced with a 90-plus minute bus ride to get to kindergarten twice a day because the incumbents defunded our public education in Wisconsin and our local elementary school closed in 2018.”

Gruber said he would advocate for working class families if elected to the Assembly. 

“We see the same story play out across this district every single day,” Gruber said. “Our communities are hurting. Schools are closing. Our ambulances are often unstaffed and our police departments are closing. We can do better for our communities.”

The ADCC has announced several other Democratic challengers in recent weeks including: 

• Marathon County Board Supervisor John Kroll is running for AD 85. The district is currently represented by Rep. Patrick Snyder (R-Weston) won the district with 53% of the vote in 2024. 
• Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz launched a campaign for AD 21. The district is currently represented by Rep. Jessie Rodriguez (R-Oak Creek), who won the district with 51% of the vote in 2024.
• De Pere School Board Member Brandy Tollefson is running for AD 88. The district is currently represented by Rep. Benjamin Franklin (R-De Pere), who won the district by 220 votes in 2024. 

While Johnson said he thinks incumbency and fundraising will matter in the races, he said one of the biggest factors that will sway state legislative races will be a person who won’t be on the ballot at all.

“The most important thing will be, if the candidate has a D or an R after their name,” Johnson said. While candidates’ relationships with voters in their districts are important, many people don’t have that kind of personal contact and will be “making their mind up about …what they think about Donald Trump, and they’re going to go in and they’re going to vote based on that feeling, I’m confident.”

State legislative races will appear on voters ballots in November alongside an open race for governor, congressional races as well as other statewide and local races.

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