The Wisconsin State Capitol. Control of the state Assembly and Senate will be at stake in the 2026 November elections. (Photo by Baylor Spears/Wisconsin Examiner)

It is still early in a significant election year for Wisconsin, but the story of its state legislative races is “beginning to emerge,” John Johnson, a research fellow in Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, told the Wisconsin Examiner in a recent interview. Among  the developments helping to shape it are recently announced retirements of two Senate Republicans and campaign finance reports that show a Democratic advantage in the Senate and a Republican advantage in the Assembly. 

State Senate retirements and fundraising 

Republicans currently hold an 18-seat majority in the 33-seat state Senate, where the 17 odd-numbered seats will be up for election this year. Democrats need to win two additional seats in the state Senate to flip control of the body.

Lawmakers have slowly started to announce their plans. On Monday, Sen. Steve Nass (R-Whitewater), who has served in the Legislature since 1991 and is one of the most conservative lawmakers in the state Senate, announced he will not run for reelection. He said in a statement that the “time has come for a new fighter to take on the mission of preserving life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” for residents of Senate District 11. 

“It has been one of the greatest honors of my life to serve in the Wisconsin State Legislature representing the people of Southern Wisconsin,” Nass said. “I have always been bipartisan in my scorn of fiscal mismanagement and bureaucratic overreach regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats were in charge, since the affliction of Big Government is a disease that infects both parties in Madison.”

His district leans Republican. The three Assembly districts within his are represented by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester), Rep. Amanda Nedweski (R-Pleasant Prairie) and Rep. Tyler August (R-Walworth). 

Nass is the second Republican legislator to announce his  retirement in recent weeks. 

The State Senate Democratic Committee (SSDC), the fundraising arm of the caucus, said in a statement that his announcement “is yet another proof point that Republicans are expecting to lose control of the Senate in November” and are confronting the “reality of a Democratic majority.”

The SSDC has been laying the groundwork to flip the chamber over the last year, especially over the summer. In its recent campaign finance report, the SSDC reported raising $771,870 — more than two times what its Republican counterpart brought in — between July 1 and Dec. 31. According to the SSDC, that’s the most the committee has ever raised in a non-election year.

“Senate Democrats have the message, the fair maps, and the candidates to win a majority in November, and these fundraising numbers are proof of that,” the SSDC said in a statement. It ended the period with a $446,605 cash balance. 

The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate (CERS) reported raising $306,674 during the fundraising period. It spent $21,249, and ended the period with $728,682 cash-on-hand. 

The first Senate retirement announcement this year came from Sen. Rob Hutton (R-Brookfield), who represents Senate District 5. The district includes portions of Milwaukee County, encompassing West Allis and Wauwatosa, and Waukesha County, including Pewaukee, Brookfield and Elm Grove. 

Hutton’s exit is significant, Johnson says.

“That’s an essential target for Democrats to win if they want to take a majority of the state Senate,” Johnson said. “The Democrats have also recruited a quite strong challenger there.” 

Hutton said in a statement that the decision was “very difficult” but that “increasing personal and professional obligations have made it clear that stepping aside is the right decision at this time.” 

“I look forward to continuing to work hard in this final year and beyond to push for more needed reforms that streamline government, address affordability for families, support law enforcement and increase access to quality education, healthcare and economic opportunity for all Wisconsinites,” Hutton said. 

Hutton had reported raising $24,325 in his December campaign finance report, which included a $20,000 contribution from himself. 

The Democratic candidate running for Hutton’s seat, State Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa), who has served in the Assembly since 2019, raised $98,913 since her Senate campaign launched in July and had $114,471 cash-on-hand, according to her campaign finance report.

Vining raised $83,403 from individual contributions. The SSDC provided over $30,000 in in-kind contributions, including wages for campaign staff, consulting and printing. She is the only candidate in the race since Democrat Sarah Harrison, a Brookfield businesswoman, dropped her bid due in part to poor fundraising. 

Johnson said Vining is a strong candidate for Democrats because she is an Assembly incumbent, who has represented one-third of the state Senate district and has a proven track record of winning parts of the district.

Johnson tracks races across the state, but said “most of them don’t quite have the clarity of the 5th Senate District in terms of who the candidates will be.”

Incumbents Johnson said, have about a 4-point advantage in reelection races.

“A seat that would otherwise be like 50-50, you’d expect the incumbent to maybe get 52% in the last cycle,” Johnson said – resulting in a 52-48, 4-point win for the incumbent. “In 2024, it was worth a little bit more for Republicans than it was for Democrats.”

There are three other Senate districts considered targets.

Senate District 21 encompasses part of Racine County, including the northern part of the city, and part of Milwaukee County, including Franklin, Hales Corner, Greendale and Greenfield.

The incumbent, Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine), has served in the Senate for the last decade. He hasn’t announced yet whether he’ll run for reelection. 

After the recent retirement announcements of other Republican lawmakers the SSDC began pushing for Wanggaard’s  retirement: “Good news comes in three… C’mon @Vanwanggaard, you can do it!” the SSDC account posted on X. 

Johnson says that of all the Senate districts, SD 21 changed the most — meaning Wanggaard’s incumbency advantage is smaller than that of other incumbent candidates. 

“He has the fewest constituents who were previously represented by him and his district, which means that his incumbency advantage is worth less than it would be under his district as it previously existed,” Johnson said.

In recent campaign finance reports, Wanggaard reported raising $36,461 in the latter half of 2025 and having $46,319 in cash on-hand.

The Democratic challenger in the district is Trevor Jung, who is the city of Racine’s transit director. He reported raising $133,512 and ending the period with $129,265 in cash on-hand.

Another key district is Senate District 17, which encompasses Iowa, Lafayette, Green, Crawford and Grant counties as well as parts of Dane County and where longtime Republican incumbent Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) is outraising his SSDC-endorsed challenger.

Marklein, who is the co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee and has served in the Senate since 2014, reported raising $194,137 during the recent campaign finance filing period, of which $148,549 came from individual contributions. He reported spending $23,441 and having $741,753 in cash on-hand.

Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2022, reported raising $118,243, spending $4,741 and having $113,888 in cash on-hand at the end of the period. 

There are also two other Democratic candidates running: Corrine Hendrickson, who raised $13,081, spent $10,021 and had $3,059 in cash on-hand, and Lisa White, who reported raising $12,202, spending $15,966 and having $2,764 in cash on-hand. 

Senate District 31 is also considered a key district for legislative control. There, Democrats are seeking to protect incumbent Sen. Jeff Smith (D-Brunswick), who has served in the Senate since 2018. The district represents the entirety of Eau Claire County and parts of Dunn, Trempealeau and Chippewa counties.

Smith faces a challenge from Sen. Jesse James (R-Thorp), who was elected to the Senate in 2022, moved to stay in his district when legislative maps were redrawn and recently moved back to the area that is now represented by Smith. Smith reported raising $86,123 during the latter part of the year and having $153,493 in cash on-hand. James reported raising $42,817 during the period. He spent $3,355 and has $61,234 in cash on-hand.

“I would say the edge is still to Jeff Smith in that race, but less so than if he were against someone who is a political unknown,” Johnson says. 

Johnson also says he thinks total spending in each contested Senate race this year could easily reach $1 million.

Assembly GOP bring in $4 million haul as Dem challengers start emerging

Republicans currently hold a 54-seat majority in the 99-seat state Assembly. Democratic lawmakers need to hold all of their current seats in the Assembly and pick up five additional seats to flip the Assembly. 

Johnson says Democrats have a path but only if they “run the table” of competitive races. 

“There are demonstrably enough voters in those [key] districts who will vote for a Democrat, so that’s the optimistic case for Assembly Democrats. The optimistic case for Assembly Republicans is that Assembly Republican candidates tend to be more popular than other kinds of Republicans, and so that’s what they’re going to be counting on,” Johnson said. 

The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) outraised its Democratic counterpart, bringing in over $4 million during the most recent reporting period, with the majority of the total coming from two GOP megadonors. 

The committee reported raising a total of $4,210,809 and spending $42,351 and ending the year with $5,241,793 in cash on-hand. Billionaire donor Diane Hendricks gave over $1 million to the RACC in the latter half of 2026 and another billionaire, Elizabeth Uihlein, donated $3 million. 

The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC), the fundraising arm of the Assembly Democratic caucus, raised $1.44 million during the reporting period. According to the ADCC, the overall total it raised in 2025 — $1.78 million — is the most the committee has ever raised in an off-election year. 

The ADCC’s top donors included venture capitalist and LinkedIn cofounder Reid Garrett Hoffman, who gave $175,000, David Hall of Pewaukee, who gave $150,000, and Lynde Uihlein, who gave $100,000 (She also gave $100,000 to the SSDC).

Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) said in a statement that the fundraising numbers show that “voters are fed up with the partisan games from Legislative Republicans and ready for change” and a Democratic trifecta is within reach. She said they are working to make investments, hire on-the-ground staff and invest in incumbents’ campaigns to set Democrats up for success this year. 

With all 99 seats up for election in the Assembly, the candidate fields are also still taking shape. 

Democrats are investing early in the districts they need to protect. State Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska) reported raising $1,007,842 and $1 million of that was contributed by the ADCC.

“Just kind of shocking,” Johnson said of Doyle’s campaign finance report. “But he’s the most vulnerable Democrat.”

Doyle was first elected to the Assembly during a May 2011 special election and has been reelected since. He won another term in office in 2024 by just 223 votes against the Republican candidate.

One key district to watch is Assembly District 51, where incumbent Rep. Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville) recently announced that he will run for reelection.

Johnson said Novak is a candidate who “really, punches above his weight as a Republican in that district.”

“There have been a lot of years that Democrats thought they could win it, and Democrats all across the rest of the ticket won in that district, but Novak keeps on winning there,” Johnson said, adding that Novak is “probably one of the most moderate Republicans in the Assembly.” 

According to his campaign finance reporting, Novak raised $22,475 during the period and had $29,934 in cash on-hand. The majority of the funds — $20,000 — came from a contribution made by the RACC on Dec. 31.

Novak highlighted his work with Democrats in his press release, including with Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, to secure permanent funding for the Office of School Safety and to secure mental health funding for the UW system. He said that in another term in office he would work to address “affordability, budget responsibly and reduce tax burden, improve healthcare access and costs, and continue supporting our schools.” 

“Working across the aisle for common sense solutions is how I’ve always approached governing. We’ve been able to accomplish a lot to help address affordability, reduce the tax burden, support education, and reduce healthcare costs,” Novak said in a statement.

Johnson says the thing that may tip elections in these close seats are candidates’ personal connections to voters.

“There’s not a lot of daylight between members of the same party on any election these days, but these seats are close enough… that even a little bit of daylight — even a little bit of a, well, I’m mad at the Republicans, but I know Todd Novak. Like, we go to the same events. I see him talk. I trust him personally’ — even if that’s just a few 100 people, that can be the difference,” Johnson says.

With the support of the ADCC behind him, Ben Gruber, a Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Conservation Warden and President of AFSCME Local 1215, launched his campaign to challenge Novak last week. 

He criticized Novak and Marklein at his campaign launch, saying that Republican lawmakers’ decisions to not provide adequate funding to schools in the area have hurt the community. 

“I grew up here, and we’re raising our kids here. I want our kids to have the same opportunities we did growing up. The reality is because of incumbents like Todd Novak and Howard Marklein they don’t have those opportunities,” Gruber said when he announced his campaign. “In 2019 when my oldest daughter was ready to go to kindergarten, she was faced with a 90-plus minute bus ride to get to kindergarten twice a day because the incumbents defunded our public education in Wisconsin and our local elementary school closed in 2018.”

Gruber said he would advocate for working class families if elected to the Assembly. 

“We see the same story play out across this district every single day,” Gruber said. “Our communities are hurting. Schools are closing. Our ambulances are often unstaffed and our police departments are closing. We can do better for our communities.”

The ADCC has announced several other Democratic challengers in recent weeks including: 

• Marathon County Board Supervisor John Kroll is running for AD 85. The district is currently represented by Rep. Patrick Snyder (R-Weston) won the district with 53% of the vote in 2024. 
• Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz launched a campaign for AD 21. The district is currently represented by Rep. Jessie Rodriguez (R-Oak Creek), who won the district with 51% of the vote in 2024.
• De Pere School Board Member Brandy Tollefson is running for AD 88. The district is currently represented by Rep. Benjamin Franklin (R-De Pere), who won the district by 220 votes in 2024. 

While Johnson said he thinks incumbency and fundraising will matter in the races, he said one of the biggest factors that will sway state legislative races will be a person who won’t be on the ballot at all.

“The most important thing will be, if the candidate has a D or an R after their name,” Johnson said. While candidates’ relationships with voters in their districts are important, many people don’t have that kind of personal contact and will be “making their mind up about …what they think about Donald Trump, and they’re going to go in and they’re going to vote based on that feeling, I’m confident.”

State legislative races will appear on voters ballots in November alongside an open race for governor, congressional races as well as other statewide and local races.

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