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Studies across the nation assess recidivism risk tied to age of  people released from prison

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Photo by Getty Images.

When the Wisconsin Commutation Advisory Board meets on August 21 to review 12 applications for a commutation, a form of executive clemency Gov. Tony Evers can order to shorten or modify a criminal sentence, each board member’s recommendation will be based, in part, on the perception of the applicant’s likelihood of re-offend.

The applicants and those who support them will be making their appeals based on evidence that they are ready to return to society and deserve another chance.

The Wisconsin Examiner’s Criminal Justice Reporting Project shines a light on incarceration, law enforcement and criminal justice issues with support from the Public Welfare Foundation.

The commutation application asks the applicants to provide reasons for how a commutation would “assist with your rehabilitation and benefit the community.” The applicant is asked to provide a list of programs they participated in while incarcerated, education and certification, and other achievements, along with a re-entry plan detailing such things as employment prospects, where they would obtain housing and other resources.

As part of the process, there will be statements by the judge who sentenced the applicant, along with input from the district attorney who brought the charges, and testimony of victims that will be weighed.

Two factors that data has shown to be critical to predict lower recidivism — older age upon release and longer sentences served prior to release — have been designed into the commutation criteria by requiring applicants to serve at least half of their incarceration or at least 20 years of a life sentence. Requiring them to serve at least half their sentence ensures that when they are eligible to apply, they are older and therefore statistically less likely to re-offend.

In an April 2026 report by the Wisconsin Policy Forum, “Cross Examination: a comprehensive review of the Wisconsin criminal justice system,” data compiled from the Wisconsin Department of Corrections shows that people in prison who are over the age of  40 had a much lower three-year recidivism/reincarceration rate than younger people. Those 60 or older had the lowest rate at 12.3% followed by those 50-59 at 19%. Those who were 40-49 years old had a rate of 25.7%.

The Policy Forum report also  found those who had served a sentence of five or more years were significantly less likely to end up back in prison compared to those who had served less than five years: 18.5% compared to more than 32%.

A 2017 report from the United States Sentencing Commission looking at the effects of aging on recidivism among 25,431 federal offenders released after 2005 noted that  “numerous recidivism studies document well that older offenders are at lower risk for reoffending, and the Commission’s own research has confirmed this finding for federal offender populations.”

One of the commission’s key findings is that “Over an eight-year follow-up period, 13.4% of offenders age 65 or older at the time of release were rearrested compared to 67.6% of offenders younger than age 21 at the time of release.”

A 2022 report by the California parole board notes that of 4,197 persons serving a life sentence in that state released via a parole board ruling between 2011 and  2018 just 2.7% or 114 persons had been charged with a new misdemeanor or felony and only 0.5% were again convicted of a felony against another person.

The California report doesn’t include the average ages of those released via parole or how many years they served prior to release. However, a 2011 study by Stanford Law School, “Life in Limbo,” found that the average age of most people serving a life sentence who were released from prison was 49.9.

When Gov. Evers opened the commutation process via his two executive orders on April 4, he included a special application for juvenile life sentence commutation for those who were convicted of a crime at 19 years of age or younger.

Wisconsin advocates have pushed the state Legislature since 2023 to allow re-sentencing for juveniles who were given a life sentence. A bill introduced in the last legislative session would have allowed resentencing for those who had served at least 20 years of a sentence for a crime involving a death or 15 for crimes that did not involve a death. They pointed to two studies from Pennsylvania involving a large-scale release of juvenile lifers sentenced to life in prison as minors. The studies found that the recidivism rate was very low.

Pennsylvania began a resentencing process for youth lifers in 2017 after the landmark Supreme Court decision in 2012 Miller v. Alabama that ruled mandatory life sentences without parole were unconstitutional for those under age 18, in part, because of brain science that shows youth are still cognitively developing and therefore should not  be held to the same standard as adults. Later, in 2016, the Supreme Court ruled in Montgomery v. Louisiana that the Miller decision applied retroactively, “invalidating all juvenile life-without-parole sentences that had been mandated by statute.”

Most of the juvenile lifers in Pennsylvania — 62% — had been convicted of first degree murder, while 38% had been convicted of second  degree murder. Out of 521 youth lifers in Pennsylvania, 459 were resentenced and 323 became eligible for parole and 230 were released.

Of the 174 who had been released from prison from Philadelphia County the average age at release was 51. As of December 2019, only two had been re-arrested and convicted of a new crime and both were considered “low level.”

The most helpful factors for reintegration, another Pennsylvania study found, were family connectedness, stable housing, employment, support groups, transportation and access to healthcare – similar factors considered in the Wisconsin commutation applications.

Former Madison Police Chief Noble Wray embraces role on Commutation Advisory Board 

Former Madison Police Chief Noble Wray now sits on the Wisconsin Commutations Board. (Photo by Henry Redman/Wisconsin Examiner

On June 19, Gov. Tony Evers announced the names of eight appointees to the newly formed Commutation Advisory Board he created by executive order on April 4.

The Wisconsin Examiner’s Criminal Justice Reporting Project shines a light on incarceration, law enforcement and criminal justice issues with support from the Public Welfare Foundation.

Under the governor’s authority in the Wisconsin Constitution, a commutation, which is a shortening or a modification of a criminal sentence, is one of the governor’s powers of clemency along with pardons and reprieves.

Evers said in his executive order creating the board that offering commutations “promotes rehabilitation by providing a system that rewards the positive efforts of incarcerated individuals who demonstrate personal growth and a commitment to change with the possibility of a second chance to contribute to society, become productive members of their communities, make amends, and improve their lives and those of the people around them.” 

One of the eight appointees is Noble Wray, 66, a career police officer who served as Madison’s police chief from 2004-2013. He was a member of Gov. Evers’ Pardon Advisory Board from 2019-2025 where he reviewed applications, including asking applicants why they believed they merited a pardon. In an interview, he spoke with the Examiner about why he chose to serve on the commutations board and the unique perspective he brings to the role. 

Why did you want to serve on the board?

“In total, I’m 100% in support of commutations,” said Wray. “I think it’s critical for the criminal justice system to have something like this in place.”

On the Pardon Advisory Board, Wray said he was inspired by stories of people who took accountability for their lives and were making meaningful changes.

“I’ve worked or reviewed just about every part of the criminal justice system during my career,” he said, “and nothing has been more personally fulfilling than the pardon board.”

He agreed to be on the Commutation Advisory Board, he said, because he believes people in prison who are trying to make constructive changes to become productive citizens should have an incentive to pursue those changes. He believes it’s important for the state to support  successful reentry into society, focusing on employment, family support, treatment and accessing services.

“Being involved in criminal justice reform for so long and understanding that you can’t just look at a system that has punishment as its only motivation — human beings are more complex than that,” he said. “There are people that we know that can contribute to society, and the system, the structure must provide triggers, must provide systems to acknowledge those folks, both in prison and when they have completed their time.”

But he also acknowledged an applicant might not be ready for a commutation.

“I’m here to tell you, the first to tell you, it may not be for everyone,” he said. “It may be that someone just needs time to think through what they’ve done and to really grasp and understand it. It may be, you know, taking college credits. It may be working while they’re in prison on vocational training.”

What is the importance of the Commutation Advisory Board?

Wray emphasized that the advisory board brings together members  from different backgrounds in the criminal justice and social services system, with diverse experiences, who will challenge one another and offer varied perspectives.

“So you know I support commutations,” he said. “But you know what? I am a cop. I’ve lived my whole life being a cop, and bottom line, I want to make sure that people in the community and out on the streets are safe, that neighborhoods are safe. So if I see something or hear something that I think is going to compromise that, I’m going to push back.”

At the same time, he added, someone who has  a different perspective could see something he doesn’t perceive.

“What I hope we would get out of this is that we really hear what the people are saying that are requesting a commutation,” he said. ”And we really review the information and make the best decision, balancing the need to have a human being get back into Wisconsin society and make a contribution to Wisconsin society, balancing that with ensuring that no one will be harmed in any way, shape or form by this person.”

Asked about the pressure to ensure that the board doesn’t make a bad decision, leading to more harm caused by someone whose sentence is commuted,  Wray drew on his experience  as a police officer. It’s wrong, he said, to treat an entire neighborhood as being made up of criminals when only a few people are causing problems. He said the same standard should be applied to commutations, not letting one person’s bad actions ruin the chances for others who are trying to change their lives.

“Politically, people will get up and say, ‘Hey, this thing failed because one person did this,’” Wray said. “How sad is that when you can help others? Now, again, I understand you can’t place all of the emphasis on helping someone that has done something wrong to society, but if everything is totally punishment, you don’t have a balance” between punishment of the crime and rehabilitation of the offender.  “That’s why the numbers stay the same, because you don’t have a balance,” he added, referring to Wisconsin’s prison population which is on track to break the record set in 2019 of 23,826 people behind bars, many more than the state’s prison system was designed to hold.

Asked if he knew how the advisory board would evaluate applications for those who meet the minimum criteria to apply, Wray said he thought it would be similar to the Pardon Advisory Board, but also noted that there is no official guideline yet.

“We’re supposed to come together and meet and discuss that,” he said, adding that he expects it will involve “exercising some discretion.”

What perspective do you bring to the Commutation Advisory Board?

Wray said his background in law enforcement and his work on other boards will inform his work on the commutation board. 

“My common background being law enforcement, that I spent 30 years attempting to reduce fear, harm and disorder in the Madison area …  that’s really, you know, where it starts,” he said.  “I also bring a perspective of dealing with people at a level that probably no one gets to see other than a police officer, and that is in that hour of need, hour of distress, or when it happens, you’re out there … it’s that intimate time of a crisis or call or problem that very few people will see.”

He added that a police officer has to hold people accountable while also supporting and caring for victims, and “doing it with humility and with practical wisdom. I think that I bring that perspective.”

Wray also noted his experience consulting across the United States and internationally as an expert in police reform, police culture and implicit bias in policing.

“We don’t talk about this, but there is a financial cost to justice,” Wray added, “and if it’s not properly handled, if we’re too focused on arresting and incarcerating people, there is a cost, but there’s also a financial cost if we’re not doing the right thing by keeping communities safe.”

Finally, reflecting on his experience both in law enforcement and in his work on criminal justice reform, Wray said, “I just wish that more people could see when redemption is exercised properly.”

The seven other appointees to the commutation board include Maryann Sumi, a former Dane County Circuit Judge; David Meany, a former Ashland County District Attorney; Jerome Dillard, a criminal justice advocate and former executive director of EXPO (Ex-incarcerated People Organizing); Kathy Byrne Stilling, a former public defender, criminal defense attorney and retired Waukesha County Circuit Judge; Jonathan Scharrer, University of Wisconsin Law School professor and Director of the Restorative Justice Project; Geri Segal, the former executive director of Family Support Center in Chippewa Valley;  and Kat Kasmaule, program and policy analyst for the Wisconsin Department of Children and Families and a former child protection case manager.

The eight will join chair Mel Barnes, Evers’ chief legal counsel, and vice chair Cindy O’Donnell, a corrections veteran.

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