Illustration by Diana Ejaita

A survey of a small segment of incarcerated residents in Wisconsin over the year 2024  showed 35% identified as independents, and if they could vote in the upcoming Nov. 5 presidential election 45% would vote for Republican former President Donald Trump while 33% would vote for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

The data is a result of The Marshall Project’s 2024 Political Survey. The survey, a partnership between The Marshall Project and Columbia University, reached approximately 54,000 incarcerated people in roughly 400 prisons and jails across 45 states and the District of Columbia.

However, even with 54,000 responding, the survey organizers say the sample size is not sufficient to be representative of the over 2 million who are incarcerated in the U.S.

The survey was conducted twice in 2024 with residents responding to questions on a tablet:

• Between June 4-July 17 when President Joe Biden (Democrat) was still in the race.
• Between August 8-22 after Harris became the Democratic candidate.

Nationwide, as in Wisconsin, the largest share of respondents — 35% — stated their party affiliation was independent. Most incarcerated Wisconsinites favored Trump in the presidential race: 45% for Trump vs. 20% for Biden among a sample of  105 respondents,  and 45% for Trump vs. 33% for Harris among a sample of  219 respondents.

Nationwide, with 11,695 taking both surveys, most chose Trump. Trump garnered more than 46% vs. Biden with 20%. But when Harris entered the race, Trump support dropped to 44% and Harris garnered 35%. (But in a survey of 25,092 who just responded to the Trump/Harris contest, 46% supported Trump to 33% for Harris.)

During a zoom call with The Marshall Project and The Journalist’s Resource on Tuesday, Oct 29, Nicole Lewis, engagement editor of The Marshall Project, noted that Biden in the national survey was not the favorite of Black respondents and she credits that to Biden’s support of the 1994 Crime Bill that drove an increase of incarceration, especially for Black men.

But 49% of Black respondents in the national survey said they supported Harris compared with only  30% for Trump. In contrast,  60% of white respondents supported Trump vs. 21% for Harris.

In the related article by The Marshall Project (“Trump remains very popular here”: We surveyed 54,000 people behind bars about the election, by Lewis, Shannon Hefferman and Anna Flagg) reviewing its nationwide survey, the authors noted that Trump has support from a majority of incarcerated Americans, especially white men, even though his policies “are at odds with most criminal justice reformers,” and that he supports the death penalty for convicted drug dealers and “has been critical of efforts to curb police violence and has repeatedly made racist comments about crime.”

The article attributes Trump support to how racial segregation in prison and jails often results in white men tending to watch right-leaning Fox News and Newsmax, while Black inmates tend to watch more liberal-leaning CNN and MSNBC.

The article also noted that some inmates believe because of Trump’s troubles with the law, including 34 felony convictions, he is now more sympathetic to those who have been incarcerated.

Wisconsin prison and jail survey

In the Badger State, 291 incarcerated residents responded to The Marshall Project surveys, and of those, 87% were in county jails and not the state prison system.

With over 20,000 people in Wisconsin state prisons and another 12,000 in county jails, the 291 respondents offer a non-representative sample of the total incarcerated population in the state – the data collected does not statistically identify any meaningful trends.

Even though it is not statistically representative, the surveys offer a rare peek at  political preferences for incarcerated people.

Because most of the Wisconsin respondents for the survey were in jail, it’s possible they were in confinement, charged and waiting for a court date, but not convicted, so even if they had been charged with a felony but not convicted on Nov. 5, they would still be eligible to vote, while convicted felons are not eligible to vote.

And if they are in confinement serving a misdemeanor sentence, they are still eligible to vote in Wisconsin because a misdemeanor conviction doesn’t make one ineligible.

There may be some in jail due to a revocation violation of the conditions for felony supervision ­– probation, parole or extended supervision. Supervision is served after the incarcerated portion of a sentence, and those on felony supervision are not eligible to vote, and if they violate any conditions of their supervision they could land back in jail pending a revocation hearing and eventual return to prison.

In Wisconsin it’s estimated over 45,000 people have served the incarcerated portion of their felony sentence and are out in open society but are still ineligible to vote because they are under supervision – parole, probation or extended supervision (often referred to as “being on paper”).

Of 101 who responded to whether they were eligible to vote in Wisconsin, 58 said they were not, 27/ said they were eligible and 15 were not sure.

Lewis noted for incarcerated or formerly incarcerated persons there is often uncertainty over whether they are eligible to vote and many fear attempting to vote  and being charged with a violation and re-incarcerated.

In Wisconsin, the Department of Corrections (DOC) is supposed to keep the Wisconsin Elections Commission updated on the status of felons and whether they are eligible to vote, and then the Election Commission in turn is supposed to inform municipal clerks.

Of 99 who responded to the question of how likely they were to vote in the November election, 48 said they “definitely will not vote” and 24 chose “probably will not vote,” with 14 choosing “probably will vote” and 12 saying they “definitely will vote.”

Clark Merrfield, senior editor of The Journalist Resource, noted in the Zoom call that even in the states of Maine and Vermont where a felony conviction never leads to a loss to voting, in 2018 only one third of incarcerated people registered to vote and only 8% with felonies voted in Vermont and just 6% with a felony voted in Maine.

Lewis said any run-in with the law often leads to disenfranchisement.

“There is some research already that shows that any contact, no matter how small, even a traffic stop, can actually depress people’s civic participation and interest in their civic life,” she said, “so imagine if you’re taken from a population and incarcerated for a period of years. Like what impact is that going to have?”

Concerning their political party affiliation, of the 291 people incarcerated in Wisconsin who responded, 35% chose “Independent” followed by 22% “Democrat,” 21% “Other” and 18% “Republican.”

In the national survey on party affiliation, more chose Republican than those in Wisconsin: 22% nationally versus 18% in Wisconsin.  

In both the national and state surveys, Independents garnered 35%.

Lewis said that independent leaning might represent a distrust of both major parties.

Regarding Harris’s record on crime, of the 208 responding, 58% had “no opinion,” 25% said she was “tough on crime” 12% said she was “just right on crime” and 5% said Harris was “not tough enough on crime.”

To the question how should Trump be punished for the crimes for which he has been convicted, of the 90 responding, 42% said he should be “incarcerated” and 36% said he should be “fined” and 21% said Trump should be “fined and put on probation.”

And to the questions whether the U.S. was ready to elect a woman president, of the 209 responding, 53% chose “yes” and 24% chose “no” while  22% selected “not sure.”

For more details from the survey, search Wisconsin at: https://observablehq.com/@themarshallproject/survey3-state-summaries.

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