LoginWill the bottom 20% of American income earners pay more in taxes under Trumpβs big bill?
Wisconsin Watch partners withΒ GigafactΒ to produce fact briefs β bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. Read our methodology to learn how we check claims.
No.
Americans who earn less than $18,000 are estimated to see a slight federal tax cut under President Donald Trumpβs big bill, but the net effect of the bill is likely to lead to a loss in household resources.
The average federal tax change from current levels for the bottom 20% of American earners is a reduction of $150 by 2026 and a reduction of $160 by 2030, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. In contrast, the average income earner will receive a $2,860 cut while the top 1% of earners will see a $75,410 cut on average.Β
Lower income earners already pay little in taxes. Reductions in Medicaid and SNAP benefits are likely toΒ affect lower income earners disproportionately, resulting in a projected net decline of 2.9% in their household resources.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
- Tax Policy Center: T25-0231 β Reconciliation Bill, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), As Passed by the House and Senate, Distribution by ECI Percentile, 2026
- The Budget Lab at Yale: Tax Provisions in the Reconciliation Bill: Combined Distributional Impacts
- Penn Wharton Budget Model: President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects
- The Budget Lab at Yale: Distributional Effects of Selected Provisions of the House and Senate Reconciliation Bills
Will the bottom 20% of American income earners pay more in taxes under Trumpβs big bill? is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.
