LoginRepublican Assembly lawmakers fighting to keep their seats as Democrats test new maps
Assembly chambers. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)
On Tuesday, voters across Wisconsin will decide the shape of the Wisconsin State Assembly under new legislative maps, which were adopted in February after the state Supreme Court ruled the old maps were an unconstitutional gerrymander.
The new maps have created a different political dynamic this year in Wisconsin placing Republicans on defense as they seek to protect their majority while Democrats go on offense, seeking to make gains and place some new faces in the Assembly. Republicans have held large majorities in both chambers of the Legislature since 2010 under the previous maps, winning 64 of 99 Assembly seats in 2022.
Democrats are likely to pick up some seats in the Assembly, where every seat is up for election this year, but it’s not certain Democrats can win enough seats to take control of the chamber. (In the 33-seat Wisconsin Senate, where not all seats are contested this year, Republicans will likely retain control but see some erosion of their current two-thirds supermajority.) Democrats are running campaigns in 97 of the 99 Assembly districts, while Republicans are running in 84 districts. Representatives serve two-year terms and make a salary of about $57,000 per year.
John Johnson, a fellow with Marquette Law School, said it “remains a long shot” for Democrats to gain majority control in the Assembly. He said it seems both Republicans and Democrats have done what they need to in terms of recruiting serious candidates and funding campaigns in potentially competitive districts.
“[Democrats] almost need to run the table of competitive seats,” Johnson said. “Whereas Republicans only need to win some of them. If Republicans win half of the sort-of competitive seats, then they’ll retain a slim majority.”
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos recently has said retaining the Republican majority will be “challenging,” but “not impossible,” according to the Daily Cardinal. Vos, who is the longest serving Assembly speaker in state history, said a 55-44 Republican majority would be needed for him to remain in the leadership position.
Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) has said she is confident Democrats can win the majority this year.
“The question at hand is will Republicans be able to continue using the Legislature to consolidate their own power and serve their own interests, or will we have a Legislature that truly reflects the will of the voters in Wisconsin and passes the policy that people need to thrive?” Neubauer told the Examiner last month.
Some of the races Marquette’s Johnson is watching include the four Assembly districts won by both Evers and Ron Johnson in the same year — the 85th AD in Wausau, the 88th AD in Brown County, the 92nd AD near Eau Claire and the 94th AD near La Crosse.
“Those are interesting, as you know, sort of like truly super-narrowly divided places,” Johnson said. Another race he said he’ll watch is the 21st Assembly District in Milwaukee County
Johnson said Wisconsin’s interesting geographical makeup and the small metro areas that exist around the state are part of what is keeping some of these districts competitive.
“In contrast to some states that really just have one big city or one big metro, like in Minnesota, Wisconsin has all of these small to medium sized cities that frequently are pretty Democratic, at least in their core, and an Assembly seat needs to be about 60,000 voters,” Johnson said. “You can end up drawing seats that lean Democratic in those places like Sheboygan, even though Sheboygan County is very Republican.”
Many of the close districts feature a Republican incumbent fighting to hold onto a seat. The candidates’ incumbency status could play a role in whether they are able to overcome the new lines.
A piece that Johnson published in 2023 about results the year prior found that incumbents running for reelection in voting wards that they’ve already represented improved their vote margin by about 4 points over what would have been expected in an open district.
“Incumbency advantage still exists less than it used to be. And I think you can kind of decompose it into two parts,” Johnson said. “Part of it is name recognition, people like you, they’ve seen you show up at events, and then the other part of it is just having more experience running a campaign, maybe being better at fundraising, having more volunteers already, that kind of thing.”
With less than a week to go before Election Day, the Examiner looked at two Wisconsin Assembly races that are among the most competitive and feature an incumbent running for reelection.
21st Assembly District
Longtime Republican Rep. Jessie Rodriguez faces Democrat David Marstellar in the race for the 21st Assembly District, which sits in Milwaukee County.
Rodriguez has served in the Assembly for more than 10 years, having first been elected during a 2013 special election. She has won all of her elections with 54% or more of the vote, but that was under the old gerrymandered maps in a district that leaned Republican.
The new 21st district includes Oak Creek and a portion of the city of Milwaukee around the Mitchell International Airport. It has a 54% Democratic lean, according to the Marquette Law School analysis. Rodriguez’s opponent, Marstellar, is a health care advocate who told the Examiner he first considered running because of the new district lines. His goals, if elected, include making health care more accessible and addressing public safety issues by allocating additional money to police departments and police training.
Marstellar received a heart transplant recipient about five years ago, and said he was only able to receive the care because of the Affordable Care Act. His brother died from a similar heart congenital condition years earlier because he wasn’t able to afford health care. The ACA didn’t exist at the time.
“It’s personal to me,” Marstellar said. “In January, I’ll celebrate six years post heart transplant, which was made possible by the Affordable Care Act. In 2003, my younger brother died at age 38 because he couldn’t afford health care.”
“I’m committed to expanding Medicare, Medicaid and Badgercare in the state — something that my opponent has repeatedly failed to do,” he added. Marstellar said he also wants to work to lower the price of prescription drugs.
Marstellar received encouragement to run from others, and decided he could outwork his opponent’s incumbent advantage.
“What I said to my friends and family and my supporters, people that are helping me all along, I may be a heart transplant recipient, but nobody — nobody will outwork me in the field, and that has been proven,” Marstellar said, adding that he has knocked 25,000 doors in the district.
Rodriguez said in an interview on News/Talk 1130 WISN that she has been working to introduce herself to the new voters who are now part of her district and noted the new spending by Democrats in the race. Rodriguez didn’t respond to interview requests from the Examiner.
According to Fall Pre-Election campaign finance reports, Marstellar has raised $1,497,924 and spent $1,438,780 over the year. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has raised $865,528 and spent $819,921 in the same time period.
“This election is being bought out by people out of state, not people from Wisconsin,” Rodriguez said. Marstellar, for his part, said this was a “talking point” and that he and his supporters have worked hard on bringing in donations.
In her reelection campaign, Rodriguez has focused on economic issues, saying the economy is the issue voters bring up the most. She has been a proponent of cutting taxes, including for middle class families and retirees. Rodriguez currently serves on the powerful Joint Finance Committee which plays a lead role in crafting the state budget every two years.
“These are things that we can use to help people right now, when everything’s more expensive,” Rodriguez said of proposed tax cuts.
Rodriguez said in an interview with WisEye that consolidating the state’s four school voucher programs, which allow students in Wisconsin to attend private schools using public funds, into one will be one of her top priorities if reelected. Before she was elected to the Assembly, Rodriguez served as outreach coordinator for Hispanics for School Choice and she has continued to be an outspoken advocate for expanding private school choice in Wisconsin.
Abortion and reproductive health care have also become an issue in the race with Rodriguez saying her stance on reproductive health issues has been misrepresented. She said she supports IVF and contraception access as well as restrictions on abortion that make exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
“We should help women who are having a hard time conceiving. We should support them in using these types of treatments and access to contraceptives,” Rodriguez said.
Rodriguez voted in favor of a 14-week abortion ban bill, which would require the approval of voters, in 2023. She also supported a bill that would update an 1849 law, which at the time had halted all abortion care in Wisconsin following the overturn of Roe v. Wade, to include exceptions in the case of rape or incest. Rodriguez has also supported bills that would extend postpartum Medicaid coverage to 12 months and that would allow pharmacists to prescribe birth control.
Marstellar, who is endorsed by Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin, said Rodriguez is just “painting herself as a moderate.” He pointed to her votes in support of keeping the 1849 law in place. He said he trusts women and doctors to “make their own decisions” and that politicians “do not belong in examination rooms with patients.”
61st Assembly District
Republican Rep. Bob Donovan and Democrat LuAnn Bird are competing to represent Assembly District 61, which covers Greendale and Hales Corner in Milwaukee County. The race is a rematch for the candidates after they faced each other in 2022 for the seat Donovan currently holds.
The new district is a 50.8% Republican lean, according to the Marquette Law School analysis. CN Analysis rates it as “Tilt D.”
Donovan was drawn out of the district with the new maps, but said he would move to remain in the district. He said in an interview on News/Talk 1130 WISN that he wants to keep representing the district and work to improve public safety, including addressing reckless driving, and push Milwaukee local leadership to address other issues. Donovan didn’t respond to interview requests from the Examiner.
“We’ve given Milwaukee the tools, whether it’s strengthening some of the laws relating to public safety, the financial tools we’ve given them,” Donovan said, referring to the shared revenue deal that allowed Milwaukee to increase its sales tax. “Now, it’s time that they start delivering. Most of these issues revolve around local leadership and sadly, in my opinion, that’s not occurring to the level it needs to occur. We need the local officials to step up,” Donovan said. Prior to serving in the Legislature, Donovan served on the Milwaukee Common Council from 2000 to 2020.
Bird told the Examiner that she decided to run again because the issues that she ran on last time are still urgent. She lost the race by 525 votes in 2022. Since then, she has continued to advocate for some of the issues she ran on, including supporting the state’s child care industry.
“Now the maps are fair, and it feels so good to not have to go out there and defend the governor’s veto, which is what we were doing last time,” Bird said. She was one of a handful of candidates in tight races who received support from the Women Save the Veto PAC — a group launched to prevent Republicans from gaining supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature, which would have given them the ability to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Evers.
“Now it’s just about… let’s see if we can flip the Assembly and actually represent the values of the people in our community,” Bird said, “like women’s rights and gun safety and public education and the high cost of living.”
According to fall pre-election campaign finance reports, Bird has raised $1,673,838 this calendar year and spent $1,659,311. Donovan has raised $792,697 and spent $813,745.
Donovan and Republicans have centered culture war issues in the campaign against Bird. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Bird is one Democratic candidate dealing with anti-transgender ads targeting her.
“She comes across at the doors as everyone’s favorite grandma, in reality, she’s pretty far left,” Donovan said in the News/Talk 1130 WISN interview.
“She is pushing for a far left agenda in our schools that will allow men in girls’ locker rooms and dividing our kids by racial lines. That’s not good, and what people expect from their schools is getting a good education, teaching the reading and writing and math and history.”
During his first term in the Assembly, Donovan voted in favor of a bill that would ban transgender girls from participating on girls’ athletic teams and a bill that would ban gender-affirming medical care for minors.
Bird said the comments were “disappointing,” and the focus on the culture war issues is “part of the Republican playbook to paint all Democrats as out of touch.”
“It’s disappointing to see the lack of respect for human dignity,” Bird said. “These are people that need our support, and they’re figuring out who they are, and they need to have the freedom to be who they are. They don’t need government interference in their private lives.”
Bird said that she’s having to combat the messaging from the ads with person-to-person conversations. She said she recently had a beer with a friend of hers who had become unsure about voting for her. She emphasized that she wants to help bring “civility” back to the political process.
“I’m just kind of that person who wants to solve problems, and I can’t sit back when you see problems, and that’s why I’m in this race,” Bird said.
Other Assembly races to watch next week include:
- Republican first-term Rep. Amy Binsfeld faces Democrat Joe Sheehan, former superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District and executive director of the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corporation, in the race for Assembly District 26. The district is located on the coast of Lake Michigan and includes the city of Sheboygan and the village of Wilson. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 52.1% Democratic lean.
- Republican Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, who has served in the Assembly since 2016, and Democrat Alison Page are running in the 30th Assembly District, which is in western Wisconsin covering the cities of Hudson and River Falls as well as the towns of Troy and St. Joseph. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 52.6% Republican lean.
- Republican Dean Kaufert, a business owner and former Assembly representative, and Democrat Duane Shukoski, a Neenah retiree, are running for Assembly District 53 in the Fox Valley, which includes the cities of Neenah, Menasha and part of Appleton. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 53.4% Democratic lean.
- Republican Rep. Patrick Snyder, who has served in the Assembly since 2016, faces Democrat Yee Leng Xiong, executive director at the Hmong American Center and a member of the Marathon County Board in the race for the 85th Assembly District. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 52.6% Democratic lean
- Democrat Christy Welch, chair of the Brown County Democratic Party, and Republican Benjamin Franklin, a small business owner, are running for Assembly District 88, which covers De Pere, Allouez and Bellevue. It has a 52.1% Republican lean.
- Democrat Ryan Spaude, a criminal prosecutor, and Republican Patrick Buckley, who serves as the Brown County Board chairman, are running for Assembly District 89 covering parts of Brown County including Ashwaubenon and Green Bay. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 50.8% Republican lean.
- Republican Rep. Clint Moses, who has served in the Assembly since 2020, is running against Democrat Joe Plouff, in the race for Assembly District 92, which covers Menomonie and Chippewa Falls. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 52.4% Republican lean.
- Democratic Rep. Steve Doyle, who has served in the Assembly since 2011, is running against Republican Ryan Huebsch, the executive director of Wisconsin Conservative Energy Forum and son of former Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, for Assembly District 94. It covers parts of La Crosse and Trempealeau counties, including La Crosse, Onalaska, West Salem, Holland, Caledonia and Ettrick. According to the Marquette Law School analysis, it has a 53.6% Republican lean.
