Corn and soybean associations commissioned a new study on the effects a potential trade war would have on agriculture producers. (Jared Strong | Iowa Capital Dispatch)

The National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association found a tariff-induced trade war with China would “hurt” U.S. farmers, based on a jointly released study that pulled from 2018 tariffs data and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s economic plans.

Worse-case scenario figures in the study show that soybean exports to China would have an average decline of nearly 52% below baseline expected levels, and corn exports would have an average decline of 84% below baseline.

Agricultural representatives, including folks from Farmers Unions in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association and Iowa former Secretary of Agriculture and former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge among others, met Wednesday for a webinar in response to the study.

Many in the webinar urged farmers and rural voters not to vote for former President Trump because of his proposed tariffs.

“We know that elections have consequences, and unfortunately, this one could leave us in a very precarious position [for] those of us here in the heartland that try to make a living on the great soil,” Judge, a Democrat, said.

The study, released Oct. 15, was conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services and projected a new trade war would cause “immediate” drops in corn and soybean exports, which would quickly be filled by exports from Argentina and Brazil.

According to the trade study, many of the tariffs from the 2018 U.S.-China trade war are still in place, but China has granted annual waivers to the U.S. to reduce the tariff costs. This has worked to quell the trade war in recent years, but the study says the existing tariffs from China could “easily be reinstated.”

The study pulls from two scenarios, one where China fully reinstates the 2018 tariffs, and another where China applies a 60% tariff on U.S. goods, based on Trump’s proposal to place a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

This, according to the study, could lead to an average loss for U.S. soybean farmers of $3.6 billion to $5.9 billion and $0.9 billion to $1.4 billion for corn farmers in annual production value.

‘Still rebuilding’

The agricultural representatives on the Wednesday webinar spoke frequently of the 2018 trade war and the “devastating effects” it had on farmers and rural economies.

The effect was acknowledged by the former administration, which issued $23 million in relief to farmers who suffered a loss of trade because of the high tariffs.

Denny Wolff, the former Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture, said on the call that farmers were hit with a “double whammy” in 2018 when their imports went up because of the tariffs and the value of exports went down.

Gary Wertish, Minnesota Farmers Union president, said in the call that the agriculture economy is “still rebuilding” from the “devastating effects” of the 2018 trade war.

Judge said the tariffs could be “catastrophic” to Iowa because of its large agricultural production compared to its relatively small land mass and population.

“We saw what happened in 2018 and we simply cannot do it again,” Judge said.

According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Iowa is the second largest agricultural export state, and shipped $16.5 billion of domestic agricultural exports in 2022.

Brent Swart, the president of Iowa Soybean association, noted the importance of trade to Iowa soybean farmers in an emailed statement to Iowa Capital Dispatch.

“Many farmers could share a similar story of depressed commodity prices and sustained financial squeeze following the start of the U.S.-China trade dispute,” Swart said. “Trade remains a top priority for U.S. soybean farmers, and this study only underscores its importance.”

Most of the representatives on the call voiced support for Vice President Kamala Harris, or more aptly, for her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“Governor Walz clearly understands agriculture,” Judge said. “He is with us. He is our neighbor, and I have full confidence in a Harris-Walz administration to make solid decisions about agriculture.”

Iowa Capital Dispatch is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Iowa Capital Dispatch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Kathie Obradovich for questions: info@iowacapitaldispatch.com. Follow Iowa Capital Dispatch on Facebook and X.