A leading Democratic campaign committee is projecting confidence in U.S. Senate toss-up races four weeks before Election Day, though it has yet to commit resources to the reddest states that have recently entered the Senate map.

Senate Majority PAC, which is run by allies of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, has bought ad time, or has commitments to do so, in nine states, Lauren French, the group’s chief spokesperson told reporters Tuesday. 

Those states — Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — show Democrats are competing this cycle in typically Republican places. Elections analysts generally say those states are toss-ups or lean Democratic.

The Democratic super PAC’s slate, though, is not as expansive as some of the latest public polls and forecaster ratings show could be in play.

The group is “watching really closely” the races in GOP strongholds of Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi and Kansas, French said. 

At least one of those states, Kansas, could be in play for the first time in decades, according to elections forecaster The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which moved it into the toss-up category Tuesday.

“Broadly, we are very pleased with the state of the race right now,” French said. “We are invested in nine battleground states and are looking very closely at some of the expansion states that are coming (into) play as we get four weeks from the election and the environment continues to be increasingly rough for Republicans.”

An expanded Senate map is available to Democrats because of President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, especially tied to the Iran war and related high gas prices, French said. Trump’s approval rating is lower than his disapproval rating “in every battleground state,” she added.

North Carolina moves

Opportunities for Republicans appear to be shrinking, with North Carolina moving further toward Democrats. 

Cook shifted the race from lean Democrat to likely Democrat on Tuesday, after the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, said last week it was freezing future spending in the state.

French said the Senate Majority PAC also canceled its television and digital spending this week in the race for the seat left open by retiring Republican Thom Tillis. The group has not made decisions on spending in the Tar Heel State beyond this week, she said.

Republicans hold cash edge

While the national political environment favors Democrats, the GOP and its fellow campaign groups maintain a massive cash advantage against Democrats.

Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., held more than $400 million at the end of August, according to records filed with the Federal Election Commission. Senate Majority PAC showed around $57 million on hand in the same report.

Fundraising numbers for official party committees also significantly favor Republicans. 

The Republican National Committee and the party’s campaign groups supporting House and Senate candidates outraised their Democratic counterparts by about $100 million through Aug. 31, according to an analysis by nonpartisan elections analyst Ballopedia. 

Republicans have largely aimed to portray Democrats as too far to the left to capably manage Congress.

“Voters have a clear choice this November between Republicans who will fight for them and radical, socialist Democrats who would serve as rubber stamps for Chuck Schumer’s Washington machine,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement.

Rare pickup opportunities

Still, the Senate Majority PAC’s bullish sentiment broadly matches expert opinion, as forecasters continue to see a strong case for Democrats to pick up Senate seats. Republicans now control the Senate with 53 seats.

The elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved two Senate races in Democrats’ direction Tuesday. 

The group labeled Alaska as leaning toward Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola in her challenge to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, and shifted U.S. Sen. Darline Graham’s race in South Carolina from safe Republican to likely Republican. Graham was appointed to the seat when her late brother died, won a Republican primary election and is now seeking a six-year term.

Overall, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which operates at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, rates 49 seats, including those of incumbents not on the ballot this year, as at least leaning toward the Democrat, with four seen as toss-ups. 

Democrats, who now hold 47 seats, would need to net 51 seats to win a majority because Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes.

A flip in control of the chamber would significantly slow Trump’s nominees to the federal bench and executive branch posts. 

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Republicans did not gain any support Wednesday from Democrats as they attempted to advance a bill that mashed together two hot-button midterm issues: requiring voter ID in federal elections and limiting stock trading for members of Congress.

The Republican-led bill, titled the Stop Insider Trading Act, failed 53-47 when lawmakers stayed solidly within party lines for the procedural vote. Most legislation requires 60 votes, or three-fifths of the Senate, to advance.

The House-passed measure attached a voter ID requirement onto a base bill prohibiting members of Congress and their spouses and close family members from purchasing certain stocks, and requiring a public notice and waiting period prior to selling stocks. 

House lawmakers approved the legislative package by a 232-192 margin.

While 13 House Democrats supported the bill, sponsored by Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., despite plenty of criticism, Senate Democrats did not bite.

“The Senate GOP let their counterparts in the House take out all of the ban’s teeth and fill it with poison pills so it could never pass. This bill has no reform, no accountability, no substance,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on the Senate floor prior to the vote Wednesday.

House and Senate Democrats panned the legislation for being a weaker version of other bipartisan bills aimed at stopping members of Congress from potentially profiting off insider knowledge while trading stocks. The issue has drawn support from both parties over the past several years.

“Under (the) Republican bill, members would still get to own and sell stocks. And most importantly, this bill doesn’t do anything – anything – to stop Donald Trump from trading stocks. I guess Republicans forgot that Trump has made nearly 30,000 stock trades in the past year and raked in billions – more than all of Congress combined,” Schumer continued.

The New York Democrat also said the measure “would make voting more difficult in every state than it is now” and described it as “some of the most twisted, radical schemes Trump has ever dreamed up to rig our election.”

ID for voting

Under the measure, a voter would be required to present a current state-issued driver’s license or identification card, passport, valid military or veteran ID, or tribal government-issued ID card to be able to vote. 

If a voter doesn’t have one of the listed physical forms of identification, state election officials could issue a provisional ballot. The voter would then have three days to provide the accepted ID or an affidavit that the voter doesn’t have one because of religious objections to being photographed.

Additionally, state officials would be prohibited from accepting absentee ballots unless the voter attaches a copy of a valid ID, the last four digits of their Social Security number with an affidavit that they cannot obtain a photo ID, or a notarized statement that the voter personally completed their ballot.

‘Commonsense legislation’

Senate Republicans pushed for the bill ahead of the vote, including Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who posted Monday on X, “This bill would ban congressional insider trading. We need to pass this commonsense legislation and restore integrity to Congress.” 

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, pointed to a Department of Justice indictment announced Wednesday to argue in support of the legislation.

Quoting a post on social media about DOJ allegations that 10 noncitizens voted in a previous election, Lee wrote: “Every Senate Democrat just voted against legislation that would stop this.”

While the DOJ has alleged instances of isolated election-related crimes, widespread voter fraud has never been credibly proven. 

A database published in 2024 by the right-leaning Heritage Foundation surveying millions of votes cast in seven states over decades found reported cases of fraud to be less than 1%, according to an analysis of the results by the progressive Brookings Institution.

A comprehensive body of research has found the practice to be exceedingly rare.

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated Wednesday that should Democrats regain control of the chamber following the elections, they plan to block judicial nominees sent up by President Donald Trump, including for any possible vacancies on the Supreme Court. 

“Look, the bottom line is, one of the reasons that we want to do everything we can to take back the Senate is not let Trump put such horrible justices, MAGA justices, on the Supreme Court and the lower courts,” he said.  

Trump nominated Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett during his first term but has yet to nominate anyone to the country’s highest court during his second term. 

Schumer’s comments signal that even if one of the nine Supreme Court justices retires or potentially passes away, Democrats would hold the vacancy open until after the next presidential election. 

That would be somewhat similar to Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell’s decision to block Merrick Garland from a Senate confirmation vote in 2016 after President Barack Obama nominated Garland to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. 

McConnell, then majority leader in a GOP-controlled chamber, said on March 16, 2016, “the next justice could fundamentally alter the direction of the Supreme Court and have a profound impact on our country, so of course — of course — the American people should have a say in the Court’s direction.”

“It is a president’s constitutional right to nominate a Supreme Court justice, and it is the Senate’s constitutional right to act as a check on a president and withhold its consent,” he added.  

Democrats, including Schumer, rebuked McConnell for the decision. 

Schumer predicts close election

To make the choice about whether to approve any nominees during the next session of Congress, Democrats will need to regain the Senate majority. They now have 47 seats.

Schumer said during the press conference he expects it to be a close election, declining to say how many seats he expects Democrats to pick up. 

“We do not want to be overconfident, but what we’re seeing in state after state after state is that people are sick of Trump,” he said. “They’re sick of the Republican Senate going along with him. And they see the clear divisions we have drawn between what we stand for and what they stand for. That has put us on the edge of victory. But we still got a ways to go.”

Democrats need a net gain of at least four Senate seats to regain the majority.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates North Carolina as leaning in Democrats’ direction, with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas, all currently held by a Republican, rated as toss-ups. The open races in Michigan and New Hampshire, which were won by a Democratic candidate last time, are also rated as toss-ups. 

Democratic priority to ‘lower people’s costs’

Aside from blocking Trump nominees, Schumer didn’t detail what types of bills Democrats may put on the Senate floor, should voters give them the majority in the upper chamber. 

“We’re going to do everything we can to lower people’s costs. You’ve seen some of the things Trump’s done that’s raised costs,” he said. “We’re going to do everything we can to clamp down on this horrible corruption and to end the chaos and end the war.”

Schumer declined to answer a question about whether he believes he would get the support needed from other Democrats to remain their leader, given critical comments from some of the more left-leaning candidates who could be elected this November.

“Our caucus is totally unified. We’re in great shape. Everyone is really very, very pleased with where we are today compared to where we were 20 months ago, under our leadership,” he said. “And we’re fighting hard. And we’re on the edge of taking back the Senate.”

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Democrats believe they could pick up as many as six seats following this November’s midterm elections, despite Republicans having better fundraising numbers and break-even polling in several states. 

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand said during a sit-down interview Tuesday that the president’s low approval ratings and the ongoing war in Iran remind her of the 2006 election cycle, when the party flipped both chambers of Congress.

“We may be outspent in all the races, but we will not be outworked,” she said. “Our candidates are better and they are stronger and they are on-message to what voters actually care about.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee holds a slim fundraising advantage over the DSCC, with $176 million to $163 million in contributions this cycle as of Aug. 31, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

But the Republican National Committee has a nine-digit cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee. And Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has more than $400 million ready to spend.

Gillibrand, of New York, said she was confident Democrats will be able to keep Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, while possibly flipping seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. 

“All six are viable. All six we can win. And so we’re excited about all of them,” she said. “And on top of those six, there’s other races that we continue to watch.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates seats held by Republicans in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas as tossup races, with North Carolina leaning toward Democrats. 

The forecaster lists seats Democrats are defending in Michigan and New Hampshire as tossups, with Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff a slight favorite to win reelection.

Control at stake

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate from Republican to Democratic control. A 50-50 split would leave the GOP with the majority since the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote in that chamber of Congress. 

Gillibrand said during the interview with States Newsroom and a dozen other reporters in the Regional Reporters Association that Americans are frustrated with what Republicans have done during their two years with unified control of Washington. 

She expects many Americans who voted for a Republican during the 2024 presidential election will decide to vote for a Democratic candidate this fall. 

“I think it’s going to be a groundswell,” Gillibrand said. “I think it’s a lot like 2006.”

Two decades ago, following the second midterm election of a Republican president involved in an unpopular Middle East war, Democrats went from holding 45 Senate seats to 51. In the House of Representatives, Democrats went from 202 seats to 233. 

The six states Democrats are focused on flipping, Gillibrand said, are largely in play because of actions by President Donald Trump as well as his Republican allies in Congress. 

“Republicans’ roster of corruption and candidates who have been a rubber stamp to Trump is very much affecting their campaigns,” she said. “And our focus on just the issues that are affecting voters where they are — cost of groceries, cost of housing, cost of healthcare, along with fraud and corruption — it’s resonating, pretty much everywhere.”