The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., is pictured on Monday, April 15, 2024.  (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)

The United States could default between Aug. 15 and Oct. 3 if Congress doesn’t act to raise or suspend the debt limit before then, according to a projection the Bipartisan Policy Center published Wednesday.

The new estimate from the centrist Washington, D.C., think tank would give Congress slightly more time to address the issue than the center’s last analysis that projected the so-called X-date could hit as early as July.

Quarterly taxes received in April were higher than expected, while the economy has remained stable, which combined to help push the date later, the center said in a Wednesday news release.

The projection aligns with the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate this month that the X-date would come between mid-August and the end of September. 

The Bipartisan Policy Center analysis does not change the recommendation from the center, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others that Congress deal with the debt limit sooner rather than later.

“Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess,” Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the center, said in the Wednesday release. “Congress can’t afford to inject any additional uncertainty into the mix. They need to act soon to prioritize our nation’s financial stability and reassure global markets that we take this responsibility seriously.”

Both the House and Senate are scheduled to be in recess Aug. 4 through Sept. 2.

Global crisis looms

If Congress does not act, the U.S. would default on its debt for the first time, likely leading to a global financial crisis.

As of June 18, the federal treasury had $384 billion in cash on hand and could save another $89 billion through “extraordinary measures,” the term for accounting tricks the government can use to save cash in an emergency.

The exact date will depend on how much the government spends in July and August — months that typically see large deficits, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

If the government can avoid the debt limit until quarterly taxes are due on Sept. 15, those receipts would likely give more breathing room until early October, the center said.

Other factors that could influence the X-date include fluctuating tariff revenue and the potential for costly hurricanes this summer.

Big beautiful debt limit increase

The reconciliation package Republicans in Congress are racing to send to President Donald Trump’s desk by July Fourth includes a raise in the debt limit. The version that passed the House would raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, while the Senate version would increase it by $5 trillion.

Republican senators are scrambling this week to revamp several pieces of the legislative package as the chamber’s parliamentarian rules that some do not meet the strict rules for what can be considered under the fast-track procedure known as budget reconciliation.

The process allows the Senate to pass the bill with a simple majority, meaning Republicans could pass it without Democratic votes. But Republicans are still haggling among themselves over provisions to aid rural hospitals amid changes to Medicaid, sell off public lands and others.

Once passed in the Senate, either the House would have to approve that version or both chambers would have to vote on some kind of compromise language before Trump could sign the bill.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., right, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., hold a press conference on the Republican budget bill at the U.S. Capitol on April 10, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Republicans unveiled Monday that they plan to raise the country’s debt limit by $5 trillion in the “big, beautiful bill,” a full $1 trillion more than House GOP lawmakers proposed in their version.

The provision is tucked into the Senate Finance Committee’s 549-page section of the package, which also includes tax law changes and how Republicans in the upper chamber plan to rework Medicaid.

The bill is one of 10 the Senate will bundle together in the days ahead before bringing the full package to the floor for debate and amendment votes.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., hopes to approve the legislation before the Fourth of July break, but because the chamber is changing the House bill in numerous ways, it will have to go back across the Capitol.

Given the extremely narrow majorities in each chamber, GOP leaders cannot lose more than a handful of their own members and still have the measure make it to President Donald Trump for his signature.

Earlier debt limit suspension expired Jan. 1

The debt limit change released Monday could frustrate some far-right members of the party, who believe it sends the wrong message about how the mega-bill will affect the country’s fiscal future.

Congress must raise the debt limit by a dollar amount or suspend it through a future date before the Treasury Department runs out of accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures.

The previous debt limit suspension, which was agreed to by both Democrats and Republicans, expired on Jan. 1, leaving the Treasury Department to move money around to keep paying all of the country’s bills in full and on time.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote to congressional leaders in May, urging them to address the debt limit before leaving on their customary August recess.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that lawmakers have until sometime between mid-August and the end of September to address the debt limit before default would hit.

Traditionally, the White House and congressional leaders from both political parties negotiate a debt limit deal. But GOP leaders are hoping to raise the debt limit in their mega-bill since that avoids having to make any concessions to Democrats in order to avoid a default on the debt.