Americans’ growing frustration over high prices has defined many political campaigns ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Rising costs of healthcare, gas and groceries during President Donald Trump’s second term have put Republicans on defense, not only in Washington, but in statehouse and gubernatorial races across the country.

As the political environment continues to sour for Republicans, a new analysis released by the Urban Institute on Monday underscores just how expensive everyday life has become in America: Gas and electricity prices are rising much faster than paychecks. Housing, childcare and healthcare are becoming a bigger strain for millions of people. 

And affordability pressure is worsening in once-affordable havens such as Atlanta; Louisville, Kentucky; and Rochester, New York, where costs of housing, groceries and healthcare are increasing faster than the national average.

The latest installment of The American Affordability Tracker from the left-leaning think tank details how costs of food, housing, energy and healthcare have changed across all 50 states over recent years. High prices are pinching people across income brackets, with an estimated 49% of families unable to afford the basic costs of living. That’s according to Urban Institute’s true cost of economic security calculation, which measures how much is needed to live securely.

“We’re not saying that 49% of people are poor. We’re saying that they’re not secure,” said Gregory Acs, an Urban Institute fellow who worked on the research project. “Even if they’re paying all their bills, they’re paying all their bills at best.”

He said the analysis confirms that the economic angst so many people feel is justified — despite strong national economic indicators such as low unemployment and growing gross domestic product.

“They are not crazy. They’re not making it up,” Acs said. “They’re not being marketed into feeling bad. They really do have struggles.”

Among other findings, the report shows that average annual childcare costs for two young children have risen $6,600 over the past decade. Since January 2025, gas prices have risen by 33% — an average increase of $1.02 per gallon nationally. And premiums for benchmark plans on the Affordable Care Act Marketplace are up 22% since last year, now averaging $611 per month.

Affordability politics

Those struggles have become a political liability for Republicans, who control the White House, both chambers of Congress, most state legislatures and a majority of governor’s offices. 

All midterm elections, as a referendum on the sitting president, are difficult for incumbents in the majority. But this cycle is particularly charged because of Trump’s promises to improve the economy during his 2024 campaign, said Todd Belt, a professor of political management at The George Washington University.

“He hasn’t done that. In fact, in a lot of ways, he’s made things worse,” Belt said, citing Trump’s unilateral war in Iran and tariff policies — both of which have driven up costs. “And so Donald Trump is bringing down the Republican ticket.”

Some Democrats have proposed new policies to help lower costs, following the lead of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani whose winning campaign last year promised free buses and childcare. But many others are simply benefiting from the sinking approval ratings of the president — driven largely by high prices. 

“For the Democrats, it’s enough to not be Donald Trump,” Belt said. “People are feeling it, and you can’t out-message it. You can’t out-message what people are feeling in their finances and what they know prices to be as they go to the gas station every week, as they see it in the grocery store.”

Republican officials have recognized the political drag of rising prices. 

Vice President JD Vance has publicly acknowledged Americans’ growing frustration with high prices, particularly for gas, telling voters “we’re working on it,” during a CBS News town hall in Michigan earlier this month. 

But Trump has often downplayed such concerns, calling affordability “a hoax” promulgated by Democrats. Campaigning for Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall last week in an unexpectedly competitive race, Trump blamed previous President Joe Biden for rising prices. Trump pledged that the war in Iran would end soon.

“And when it does, you’re going to see the biggest drop in oil that anyone’s ever seen,” he said. 

Wide-ranging impacts

Rising prices are hitting consumers and businesses alike.

Earlier this month, Small Business for America’s Future, a coalition of business owners across the country, released results of a new survey that found many small employers are struggling with high costs of utilities, fuel, business supplies and employee healthcare.

Nearly two-thirds of the 1,171 businesses owners surveyed said they had recently cut or skipped their own pay to keep their operations afloat. Nearly half said customers are spending significantly less, and more than two-thirds said they had delayed, canceled or scaled back investments because of uncertainty about federal economic policy. 

Walt Rowen, co-chair of that coalition, said in a news release his own business exemplified the challenges facing Main Street operations across the country. He’s the president of the 116-year-old Susquehanna Glass Company in Columbia, Pennsylvania. Tariffs have disrupted supply chains, he said, and driven up heating oil costs.

“We’ve lived through the Depression, wars, and recessions,” his statement said. “Heating my factory in this current economy is some of the hardest math I’ve ever had to do, and I’m expecting the bill to jump 30% to 40% this winter.”

High prices are hitting consumers across demographic and geographic borders.

Acs, the Urban Institute researcher, said rising prices squeeze more than just the poorest Americans. Many middle income earners are struggling to cover the costs of healthcare, higher education and housing, “feeling like they’re on a treadmill at best,” he said. 

The Urban Institute’s recent analysis also highlighted rising price challenges in regions long considered affordable. 

In Arizona, gas and electricity price increases are outstripping other parts of the country: Arizonans pay an average of $219 per month for electricity, the highest in the U.S. and nearly $50 more than the national average. 

In the battleground state of Wisconsin, where gas and electricity costs are well below the national average, parents face disproportionately high costs for childcare: Parents there spend an average of $30,800 per year for care for two young children — $6,900 more than the national average.

“I think there is an old story that affordability really is a coastal problem,” Acs said. “What we’re trying to illustrate is that it’s not just high-cost areas where costs are an issue. Costs are an issue throughout the country.”

Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) walked through the shelves of pasta, olive oil, tinned fish and frozen pizzas at Fraboni’s Italian deli in Monona on Thursday as part of her statewide tour assessing how President Donald Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran are affecting small businesses. 

In May, the owners of the third-generation family business said that tariffs and increased gas prices had caused the cost of fresh tomatoes to increase about 40%. That price hike included domestically grown tomatoes because tariffs that increased the cost of imported tomatoes pushed up  demand for domestic tomatoes, while higher gas prices made even nearby crops more expensive to ship.
Store co-owner Bennett Fraboni added that his deli had done its best to avoid passing the increased cost of products on to its customers. 

“We always hope that it’s going to be a temporary increase, and that we can swallow it ourselves and not have to pass it on,” Fraboni said.

The deli, which has operated in the Madison area since 1971, sells Italian grocery items and operates a popular sandwich counter. Fraboni said that as the economy has fluctuated over the past year, he’s seen the two sides of the business move independently. When money is tight, he said, people are less likely to go out to eat, so sandwich counter sales slow but the sales of grocery items increase as people look to cook at home more. 

Baldwin said that hearing these stories from businesses across the state is especially frustrating because U.S. economic struggles are “self-inflicted.” 

Traveling the state during the Senate recess, she has heard from small business owners about the challenges they are facing because of  tariffs, trade wars and Trump’s war of choice in Iran, she said. “In many ways, they describe a very chaotic environment — volatile — and recognize that a lot of these things that are causing challenges for our small businesses are choices that this administration has made.”

Democrats across the country are  pushing a message about “affordability” and highlighting voters’ worries about high prices. While Congress doesn’t usually have a simple policy solution for lowering the prices of household expenses, Baldwin said if Democrats take control they can immediately act to end Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war. 

“The type of policies that this president has engaged in are extremely harmful to the consumer and to our small businesses and to our farmers who are producing these products,” Baldwin said.