Gov. Tony Evers said in a statement that the bill is “bad for Wisconsin taxpayers, who will be forced to help foot the bill for Republicans’ red-tape requirements.” Evers delivers his 2025 state budget address. (Photo by Baylor Spears/Wisconsin Examiner)

Gov. Tony Evers’ administration released new estimates Thursday showing that President Donald Trump’s recently approved federal tax cut and spending megabill will cost Wisconsin $284 million — $142 million annually — due to shifting costs and new “red-tape” requirements for social programs. 

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act — as it is officially named — makes a number of policy changes to federal social safety net programs, including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), that will be implemented gradually until completion in 2028. The cuts to the programs were aimed at balancing out the continuation of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and significant increases in military as well as immigration and border spending, though the law is projected to add $3 trillion to the national debt. 

The estimate from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS) comes as Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to speak in La Crosse on Thursday to tout the legislation. 

Evers said in a statement that the bill is “bad for Wisconsin taxpayers, who will be forced to help foot the bill for Republicans’ red-tape requirements just to make it harder for folks to get the care they need and food to eat.”

“Wisconsinites shouldn’t have to pay the price for a reckless Republican bill that’s going to add trillions of dollars to our federal deficit and shift hundreds of millions of dollars in costs to hard-working taxpayers, all so Republicans could pay for tax breaks for billionaires and big corporations,” Evers said. “Wisconsinites aren’t getting a fair shake from Republicans in Washington — that’s plain as day.”

Some of the cost-cutting in the law comes from adding additional requirements to qualify for safety net programs that will reduce the number of people benefiting from them and offload some of the federal government’s costs to state and local governments. 

Wisconsin DHS has estimated that the requirements could put more than 270,000 Wisconsinites at risk of losing health insurance and as many as 43,700 could lose access to food assistance. 

Starting on December 31, 2026, childless members of BadgerCare Plus who are between the ages of 19 and 64 will have to report 80 hours of work, training or volunteering per month or risk losing coverage.

The analysis notes that it is now “fiscally and operationally unfeasible” for Wisconsin to expand its Medicaid program due to new provisions in the law. Wisconsin could get an additional $1.3 billion from the federal government if it expanded Medicaid, but the provision that made that a possibility will sunset in 2026. Expansion states will also now be required to redetermine eligibility at the six-month marks for its adult population covered under expansion.

When it comes to the SNAP program, the federal government will only cover 25% of administrative costs under the new law. It previously covered 50%. The shifting of the additional 25% to the states will cost Wisconsin about $43.5 million annually starting in 2027. That cost is also expected to grow in the future. 

The federal law also eliminates funding for SNAP education programs with Wisconsin losing $12 million annually starting in October. DHS said it would need additional funding in the 2027-29 state budget to implement and sustain Medicaid and FoodShare employment and training programs. 

The federal law could also mean additional costs for states if its annual payment error rate for the SNAP program is over 6%. The payment error rate measures mistakes by states in assessing eligibility and payments and, according to the Evers administration, Wisconsin has typically had a low rate. Last year, the state’s error rate was about 4.5%, but the agency said rates fluctuate and new policies and standards could make rates fluctuate more. 

States with a rate over 6% starting in October 2027 will be required to pay 5 to 15% of SNAP costs. 

“Achieving and maintaining Wisconsin’s historically low error rate while implementing the other provisions in the reconciliation bill will require additional state and county quality control staff,” the analysis states. “Failing to do so will have even larger consequences for the state and Wisconsin taxpayers.” 

The agency estimates that if an error rate were over 6%, it could cost the state as much as $205.5 million annually. 

DHS said it will not be able to absorb all of the increased costs associated with the law and additional state funding will be necessary, including $69.2 million to cover additional administrative costs including an  additional 56 state employees and county quality control positions to consistently achieve and maintain a FoodShare payment error rate in Wisconsin below 6% over the long term. The agency  said it would also need additional funding in the 2027-29 state budget to implement and sustain Medicaid and FoodShare employment and training programs. The agency estimated that it would cost the state roughly $72.4 million each year to provide employment and training services to help Medicaid members meet the new requirements. 

DHS Sec. Kirsten Johnson said the potential costs covered in the analysis are “just the tip of the iceberg.” 

“From increases in uncompensated care for hospitals to lost revenue for Wisconsin’s farmers, grocers, and local economies and thousands of Wisconsinites losing Medicaid and FoodShare, these cuts will cause a ripple effect throughout the state and put a financial strain on all of us,” Johnson said.