Democratic candidate David Crowley up in polls, down in fundraising

Democratic candidate David Crowley takes a photo with Soham Bhatnagar, a 22-year-old Verona resident. (Photo by Baylor Spears/Wisconsin Examiner)
Wisconsin’s race for governor is tight with Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley up in the most recent Marquette poll over Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany, but down in fundraising.
“Why on Earth would anyone contribute that amount of money?” Crowley said, addressing supporters at an event on the north side of Madison Wednesday evening, the deadline for campaign finance filings. “Because they know that Congressman Tom Tiffany is willing to sell the state of Wisconsin, our precious state, to the highest bidder.”
Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany’s September campaign finance report showed that he raised over $26 million between July 1 and Sept. 23, bringing his fundraising total for the year to over $39 million.
Of the money raised since July, over $24 million — or 93% — came from the Republican Party of Wisconsin. The party, which under state law is allowed to transfer an unlimited amount of money to candidates, reported raising $29 million during the period. Billionaire donors Diane Hendricks and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein contributed $27.6 million of that amount.
State Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), a former opponent of Crowley, joined the event with Madison’s Northside Action volunteers to tell supporters that Crowley “needs your money.”
One attendee brought up a recent ad from Texas Senate candidate James Talarico in which Talarico calls his Republican opponent Ken Paxton to propose a debate. Like Paxton, Tiffany has declined a few debate offers — although unlike Paxton, Tiffany has agreed to one debate, to be hosted by WISN-12 on Oct. 21.
“Talarico’s got a lot more money than me,” Crowley said in response.
While talking to another supporter, Crowley threw up his hands and shrugged his shoulders, declaring Tiffany “doesn’t have to fundraise because billionaires.”
Tiffany also reported spending nearly $19 million, leaving him with $12 million on hand.
Dane County Executive Melissa Agard told the Examiner that she doesn’t think Tiffany’s fundraising dominance will carry him to victory, noting that Elon Musk’s attempts to “buy” a state Supreme Court seat in 2024 did not work.
“We’ve seen in Wisconsin billionaires try to come in and buy election results, and folks in Wisconsin have woken up to that. It’s not going to work. We take care of each other,” Agard said.
Crowley told the Examiner that he is trying to focus on growing “people power” instead of focusing on “money power.”
“We didn’t get anywhere near $26 million dollars,” Crowley said of his fundraising.
Crowley’s campaign reported raising $10.2 million during the period. He spent $7.8 million and ended with $2.8 cash-on-hand. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin contributed $2.7 million of that total. The state party received two $1 million donations during the fundraising period, one from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and one from Lynde Uihlein.
He added that Tiffany’s $24 million “coming directly from three billionaires means that the rest of this state and those that he reached out to only donated $2 million, which lets me know that folks don’t believe in his leadership,” Crowley said. “They don’t believe that he’s going to do right by this state, and so we’re going to focus on people power, because that’s what trumps money power any day.”
A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday showed Crowley leading Tiffany among likely voters 49% to 46%, with 5% of voters undecided.
“There’s been very little movement. These are, I think, obviously, inside the margin of error,” poll director Charles Franklin said. He noted that Crowley’s lead was slightly smaller than it was a month ago, especially among people who said they were likely to vote. Crowley’s support has dropped among independents, more of whom have developed a negative impression of him as the campaign, and a negative advertising blitz, have continued. But, Franklin noted, independents have also not moved to Tiffany. “It’s not yet boosting Tiffany a lot.”
Among registered voters Crowley led Tiffany by only one point — 46% to 45%.
The number of voters who said they thought favorably of Crowley dropped dramatically, with 13% more respondents seeing him unfavorably than favorably, compared to 4% more favorable than unfavorable in the previous poll. Franklin said much of the change came from Republican voters.
“People have gotten to know him some over this last month, though a quarter say they still haven’t heard enough, but of those people who’ve learned something about him, many more have formed an unfavorable opinion in this month than a favorable opinion,” Franklin said, adding that Tiffany’s favorability fell from -4 to -6. “He’s become just slightly more unfavorable, but very little change relative for him. A lot of change for David Crowley.”
Scot Ross, a longtime Democratic strategist, said he would rather be Crowley than Tiffany in the race, given the friendlier atmosphere for Democrats in the midterms, but he warned that the Marquette poll is a sign that the Republican candidate’s messaging is landing.
Ross said Tiffany and Republicans have been “lambasting” Crowley with ads that are “98%” negative, while Crowley and Democrats aren’t effectively showcasing Tiffany’s support for President Donald Trump.
“Tom Tiffany is 100% tied to the most unpopular elected official in American history, and I don’t think Democrats and their allies want to let this get away from them by not properly prosecuting the case against Donald Trump and Tom Tiffany,” Ross said. “And I do think that there has been a lack of advertising on the larger Democratic side attacking and tying Trump and Tiffany together.”
Trump’s approval among Wisconsinites fell to its lowest level in the poll at 38% and 60% said they didn’t approve of the job he was doing. Tiffany was viewed unfavorably by 45% of people.
Ross said the expected Democratic wave that is being shown in polling doesn’t “exist because of the good things necessarily that the Democrats are doing.”
“It is because, in every possible way, the corruption, the incompetence, the self-dealing of the Republicans under Donald Trump has turned off the American people,” Ross said, adding that Crowley needs to be on television and doing more media that ties Tiffany to the president.
California fundraising
Crowley recently returned from a trip to California for a fundraiser with former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump in Wisconsin in 2024, and actor Sean Penn. People who attended the event gave contributions of between $500 and $20,000. Crowley’s fundraising in California follows a trend as Democrats travel to the West Coast to seek money, illustrated by a recent analysis by the L.A. Times of congressional campaigns.
After the trip, Crowley told reporters that he would be open to campaigning with Harris and “anyone who is willing to focus on lowering costs for working families.”
Asked about the shift in his favorability in the recent Marquette poll, Crowley said, “Well, when you have $15 million being spent on you.”
“The Republican paybook is to lie, distract, and to defy, and we’re going to bring more people to the table, and that’s what this campaign is focused on,” Crowley said. “Making sure that we can lower costs for our working families, that we can provide and expand childcare and healthcare.”
Crowley also said his campaign has been working to tie Tiffany to Trump, but that he is more focused on issues closer to home.
“I think that when people see the wave that happens across this entire country, it only has a ripple effect here in the state of Wisconsin, national politics has not really moved voters here in the state of Wisconsin,” Crowley said. “What’s going to move folks in this state is focusing on Wisconsin values.”
But for one Wisconsin resident at the Crowley event, national issues are part of why he is leaning toward Crowley.
Soham Bhatnagar, a 22-year-old who lives in Verona, said he learned about the Madison event online and decided to hurry over when he got off work early. He identifies as an independent and said he appreciates hearing from political candidates “no matter their persuasion.”
“At the beginning of the race, it was honestly a true toss-up for me,” Bhatnagar said.
“As the war has drawn on and the prices have gone on … when you have the congressman who’s not seeming to in a meaningful way break with anything, I believe that in itself injects a national element into this.”
Erica Bartsch, a mother from the northeast part of the state who posts on social media, supported state Rep. Francesca Hong in the primary, then turned her attention to trying to get people to vote for Crowley. Her advocacy turned to pleading in some of her recent videos as she asked where Crowley has been and urged him to get in front of voters more often.
“We need him to be accessible to the people. How can the people see where he’s at if it’s not even on his website?” Barsch said in one video, noting that she and many Wisconsinites would not be able to pay $20,000 to attend an event like his recent fundraiser in California.
Hong, who narrowly lost to Crowley in the primary, has been travelling the state to persuade people who voted for her to support Crowley in the general election.
Crowley’s campaign website does not currently include a “Meet David” page, which previously included a list of events where people could meet the candidate. His campaign says the website is being updated.
His website does include a link to volunteer opportunities, including knocking doors and phone banking, but not a list of events where people can meet Crowley.
Crowley is also traveling across the state, including attending Oktoberfest Parade in La Crosse, the Jackson County Fall Rally in Black River Falls and a community pig roast in Kenosha. Some of his appearances are not advertised ahead of time on his website or through social media. The Madison event was advertised not on Crowley’s website, but on the Northside Action Team’s Facebook page. Crowley also has scheduled appearances this week at the Public Market in Milwaukee and in Mauston.
The campaign and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin report attempting to contact more than 500,000 voters since the end of the primary. Crowley’s field campaign is coordinated with the state party.
Bartsch said Hong’s campaign helped bring out people who aren’t always engaged in politics and Crowley could do more to reach those voters and bring Democrats together.
“David Crowley has the plans and policies that can make people’s lives better,” Barsch said. “He just needs to get out and connect with the people on the ground to show that — to show how much he cares about Wisconsinites,” Bartsch said.
The poll found that Crowley is the choice of 98% of Democrats who favor socialist candidates, while 92% of those who do not favor socialists also support him. It also found that 44% of independents favor Crowley, while 18% support Tiffany. Another 38% of independents are undecided. While Crowley is ahead of Tiffany with independents, his support among independents recently fell by 11 points.
Agard said time is running out before the election.
“Everyone wants to have more face time with the candidate,” Agard said. “At this point, the countdown is on. We’re literally talking days now until our election and some people have already cast their vote, but there are only so many hours in a day. I look forward to more opportunities like this, where David is coming into town and is able to mix and mingle with ordinary people, but also, I encourage people to be curious and do their homework.”