WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s midterm travel blitz will continue in the coming days, with Election Day on Nov. 3 now less than two weeks out, headlining rallies in several states hosting hard-fought Senate contests seen as toss-ups.  

Trump began his October campaign road trip in GOP-friendly states, but has begun venturing into territory that’s deemed to have become perilous for Republicans.

The GOP is itching to maintain its narrow majority in the U.S. House and Senate, though elections forecasters are offering a far less optimistic outlook for Republicans, as Democrats remain favored to take back the House and more Senate races shift in the party’s favor. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics on Tuesday moved nearly 30 House races toward Democrats.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted Senate races in Mississippi and South Carolina toward Democrats on Tuesday. But the elections forecaster also moved a Senate race in Minnesota toward Republicans. 

In the Palmetto State, where South Carolina GOP Sen. Darline Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews, the Cook Political Report changed its race rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” 

Trump was scheduled to rally in Clemson, South Carolina, on Wednesday for Graham, who was appointed in July to serve out the remainder of her late brother Lindsey Graham’s term. 

Rush to early voting

More than 16 million Americans have already voted early in the midterm elections as of Wednesday afternoon, according to a tracker from the University of Florida Election Lab. 

Meanwhile, Trump continues to see dismal approval ratings amid the costly war in Iran and its impact at the gas pump. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of regular gas stood at $4.26, as of Oct. 21. One year ago, that price stood at about $3.05. 

New polling from The New York Times and CNN offers a snapshot of just how bleak Trump’s approval ratings are with less than two weeks to go until the midterms — hitting record lows in the pair of polls.

In a Times/Siena University national poll, only 36% of likely voters approved of Trump’s performance. Similarly, a CNN/SSRS poll found a 32% approval rating for the president.  

Trump road show

Here’s a closer look at Trump’s travel in the coming days, after recent stops in Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas and North Carolina: 

• The president will head to Sioux City, Iowa, for a rally on Thursday. The Hawkeye State features an open Senate race between Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek that the Cook Political Report has listed as a toss-up.
• Trump will then rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday, where the Sunshine State’s Senate race is described as “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report. Florida GOP Sen. Ashley Moody faces Democrat Angie Nixon. 
• Trump travels to Perry, Georgia, on Saturday for a rally. The Senate race in Georgia is listed as “likely Democrat” by the Cook Political Report. Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is vying for another term against Georgia GOP Rep. Mike Collins. 
• The president will then head north to rally Sunday in Port Huron, Michigan. Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed are battling it out in an open Senate race the Cook Political Report has dubbed a toss-up. 
• On Monday, Trump will rally in Corinth, Mississippi. In the ruby red state, Mississippi GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is competing for another term against Democrat Scott Colom in a race that the Cook Political Report moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”
• On Tuesday, Oct. 27, Trump is set to hold rallies in both Waco and Lubbock, Texas. The Lone Star State features a pivotal Senate race between Texas GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico that the Cook Political Report declares a toss-up. 
• Trump will then travel to Chillicothe, Ohio, on Wednesday, Oct. 28, for a rally. The Buckeye State is also home to another toss-up Senate race listed by the Cook Political Report between Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown.  

WASHINGTON — The number of women in the U.S. Senate is unlikely to increase and may decline following the November midterm elections, though there are still opportunities for candidates to make history in the upper chamber.

Kelly Dittmar, director of research at the Center for American Women and Politics, said on a call with reporters Tuesday that Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Mary Peltola in Alaska, both Democrats, would become the first Native American women in the Senate if they’re elected. 

“And if Juliana Stratton wins in Illinois, a record three Black women will serve concurrently in the U.S. Senate for the first time in U.S. history,” Dittmar said. “Only five Black women have ever served in the U.S. Senate. So the three women who would be serving in the 120th Senate would represent 50%, or half, of all Black women who’ve ever served.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the Illinois race as solidly Democratic, the Minnesota election as likely Democratic and Alaska as a toss-up.

When it comes to overall representation, voters would need to elect six new women to replace outgoing female senators and keep the number of women in that chamber level during the next Congress, which is set to begin in January. 

“At present, four women non-incumbents are favored to win in November, and two more non-incumbent women are in competitive contests,” Dittmar said. “In addition, one incumbent woman senator, Susan Collins in Maine, is currently deemed as vulnerable in her bid for re-election.”

That means there would need to be some unexpected victories for women Senate candidates in order to actually increase representation in that chamber, likely leaving the percentage of women senators flat or in decline. 

Any path possible in House

The House of Representatives, where 125 of the 435 seats are held by women, is in a somewhat different position.

There will be at least 271 women on the ballot for House seats, giving voters the opportunity to surpass the previous record of 127 women in that chamber at one time.  

“Net gains, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for women’s U.S. House representation from 2026 to 2027,” Dittmar said. “And these are all possible outcomes as well when you look by party for Democratic women or Republican women specifically.”

Democratic women hold a record of 95 seats, while Republican women have previously maxed out their representation at 34.

No parity in either party

CAWP, part of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at New Jersey’s Rutgers University, aims to be a “leading source” of research and data on women in politics.

Chelsea Hill, the group’s director of data, said there were a record 590 women running for a seat in Congress at the start of this year’s campaign cycle, though that number decreased as voters decided which candidates they wanted in this fall’s general election. 

“It’s important to note, even with these candidacy records, women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House and U.S. Senate candidates,” Hill said. 

And while Democratic women are represented in higher numbers in their party than Republican women, neither has reached gender parity, she said. 

In total there are 198 Democratic and 73 Republican women candidates on ballots this fall, which Hill said is an increase from the last election cycle but “short of the record high of 298 women nominees for the U.S. House set in 2020.”

“When broken down by race and ethnicity, only Latinas reached new highs for U.S. House candidacies and nominations this year,” she said. 

“On the Senate side, the number of Native American, Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian women nominees for the U.S. Senate, three, is an historic high,” Hill added. “And the number of Black, four, and Latina, two, Senate nominees match existing records. Among women candidates for U.S. Senate, only white women have reached a new high of 45.”

WASHINGTON — Both chambers of Congress return to Capitol Hill this week for a brief session before heading back to the campaign trail until mid-November. 

The House will be in for one week and the Senate for three, giving Republicans little time to enact any laws or confirm nominees before voters decide whether to give them another two years in power. 

Lawmakers have already agreed to fund the government through Dec. 11, pushing off any need to reach bipartisan agreement on the dozen annual appropriations bills or risk a government shutdown. 

But they haven’t reached compromise on several other measures and are unlikely to do so until at least the lame-duck session, which spans five weeks in November and December. 

Left undone

Congress has so far opted not to approve legislation that could provide tens of billions in additional funding for the Defense Department amid the war in Iran. 

The two chambers haven’t brokered compromise on the different versions of the annual defense policy bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA. 

There’s no sign of significant progress on the years-delayed farm bill that is supposed to authorize agriculture and food aid programs. 

Republicans had discussed approving a third party-line package through the complex reconciliation process they used to enact their “big, beautiful” law and three years of funding for immigration enforcement. 

But the Senate needs to adopt a budget resolution before that process could begin and that doesn’t appear to be on the horizon this September. 

President Donald Trump’s insistence lawmakers approve nationwide voter registration and identification requirements is also not expected to become law, lacking the votes in the Senate to advance. 

AI stalemate

Lawmakers aren’t expected to make any progress on how to place guardrails on artificial intelligence amid increasingly dire warnings the technology could “kill us all” before the end of the decade.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash” that he wanted tech company executives to work with lawmakers on striking the right balance. 

“We cannot put a moratorium on this because China will overlap us, and that’s the challenge,” he said. “It’s national security balanced with the immediate security of making sure the models are safe.”

Johnson said he and others in Congress understood the possible ramifications of letting AI run as it is now, but added that “the people who are creating these models have to have to ensure that their products are safe.” 

“But we also at the same time have to resist Congress jumping in and imposing some sort of emergency moratorium,” he said. “It’s got to be done right, safely, wisely.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., had a different take on AI, writing in a statement released Monday that administration officials should brief senators in a classified setting. 

“The American people deserve better from their government at such a consequential moment. I have long argued that we must keep the U.S. as the global leader in AI innovation and security. But that innovation must be coupled with serious guardrails that earn the trust of the American public,” Schumer said. 

“Warning bells are ringing louder than they ever have – and the Trump administration is looking the other way. Well, if they won’t hold themselves accountable, we will. And if Trump does not act, Congress must.”

Nominees on tap

The Senate does have several pending nominees on its list that it could push through in the coming weeks, including Keith Sonderling for labor secretary, Sean Kaufman for assistant secretary for preparedness and response, and numerous judges. 

How much Congress accomplishes following the midterm elections will likely depend on what those results show. 

Democrats are unlikely to negotiate major policy or spending bills with Republicans if voters give them control of both chambers come January. 

A mixed result, possibly Democrats regaining the House but Republicans keeping control of the Senate, could lead to some deal-making later this year.