Emissions projections for 2040 have dropped, but not by 40%.

The 2024 International Energy Agency forecast for yearly global CO2 emissions in 2040 was 31 gigatonnes, 18% lower than the 38 Gt predicted in 2014. This reflected scenarios that considered current and announced short-term policies (at the respective times). Global carbon emissions were 37.8 Gt in 2024.

In 2024, a scenario assuming that all long-term climate pledges were carried out forecasted 19 Gt of emissions in 2040.

In the 2024 report, the IEA calculates a 2.4-degree Celsius temperature rise by 2100 given current policies and short-term proposals, versus a 1.7-degree Celsius increase if long-term pledges are implemented.

The IEA also calculates a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,” which limits global warming to 1.5-degree Celsius by 2100. However, the UN ruled in November 2025 that this is no longer possible to prevent an overshoot of this in the short-term.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

• International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2024: Overview and key findings
• International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2014
• International Energy Agency Global Energy Review 2025: CO2 Emissions
• International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2024
• The Economist For the first time, climate models show the 1.5°C goal is dead

This fact brief was originally published by Econofact on November 17, 2025, and was authored by Gabriel Vinocur. Econofact is a member of the Gigafact network.

Studies have identified a caregiver shortfall in the U.S., and higher immigration has been empirically linked to alleviating this. 

Adults 65 and over made up 18% of the U.S. population in 2024, up from 12% in 2004, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates suggest that this will rise to 23% in 2060. These increases mean an increased demand for caregiving.  

Caregiving is often performed by immigrants. One study published in the American Journal of Health Economics finds that immigration increases nurse hours in nursing homes and leads to an improvement in the outcomes of residents. Another study by Tara Watson (Brookings), Kristin Butcher (Wellesley), and Kelsey Moran (MIT) estimated that a 10 percentage point rise in the share of the population that is foreign-born decreases the percentage of the elderly living in a care facility by 29%. This is due to a greater availability of home care.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

• EconoFact Immigrant Workers and Care for America’s Elderly (UPDATED)
• Review of International Economics Immigrant labor and the institutionalization of the U.S.-born elderly
• United States Census Bureau Older Adults Outnumber Children in 11 States and Nearly Half of U.S. Counties
• United States Census Bureau Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060
• American Journal of Health Economics Immigration, The Long-Term Care Workforce, and Elder Outcomes in the U.S.

This fact brief was originally published by Econofact on October 27, 2025, and was authored by Gabriel Vinocur. Econofact is a member of the Gigafact network.