The current Trump administration claims its mass deportation efforts have expelled nearly a million people through July of this year, but those include both voluntary returns and people turned around at the border, according to a new analysis by the former chief statistician for the Department of Homeland Security.

The level of deportations is sharply higher than during the Biden and first Trump administrations but well below the level of the 2000s. Deportations peaked at about 1.9 million in fiscal year 2000 as border enforcement ramped up under a sweeping immigration enforcement law in 1996.

Former DHS official Marc Rosenblum did the analysis, using only public records, for the Migration Policy Institute, a non-partisan think tank for immigration research. Rosenblum resigned in protest in July against what he called the Trump administration’s “war on immigrants.” He had been with DHS since 2016 and executive director of the statistics office since 2023. 

Rosenblum emphasized in his analysis how many non-criminals have been either forcibly deported or pressured to leave voluntarily. Only 20% overall — and 28% of those in the U.S. for at least two years — have a criminal conviction.

“These data here do not suggest the administration is deporting the worst of the worst,” Rosenblum said.  

Even among convicted criminals, he added, the records were more likely to be immigration or traffic infractions rather than violent or other more serious crimes. 

DHS officials have maintained that living in the country illegally is enough reason to be deported. Tom Homan, the administration’s so-called border czar, told a Florida audience Oct. 1 that deportations have ramped up this fall and will be even higher in 2027. He was speaking to a Hispanic leadership event near Miami sponsored by the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank.

“Mass deportation is happening,” Homan said. “I think September’s going to be the highest deportations of any month in the history of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). Right now we’ve arrested more people than in the history of this nation.” 

He added later, “Wait until you see what we do next year.”

Rosenblum tallied 980,000 deportations, including arrangements to leave voluntarily after arrest, during the second Trump administration through July 31, about 18 months. About 300,000 had been arrested inside the United States, but most deportations were from the U.S. border with Mexico. There, 680,000 people were either turned around at the border or arrested at the border and deported after processing. 

The number of people leaving the country without being arrested is disputed — DHS earlier this year claimed more than 2.2 million “self-deportations,” apparently based on a decline in immigrant population in surveys. Others dispute that number, saying it’s more likely immigrants are avoiding government surveys. 

In his analysis, Rosenblum estimated the number of immigrants leaving of their own accord — not including people who had formal agreements to leave voluntarily — at between 310,000 and 1.5 million for immigrants who had been here at least a year. The departures include legal immigrants and those who had been living here illegally. 

Rosenblum’s estimate of departures, other than deportation, is imprecise, relying on Mexican census data on its returning citizens to estimate a “plausible level of departures” for other nationalities. 

The numbers in his analysis include people making arrangements to leave voluntarily rather than continue their court cases or contest a return at the border, about 170,000.  It may not include some people who came forward voluntarily to claim financial assistance to leave from the Project Homecoming program. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

Single-family home completions remain stuck at early pandemic levels as of September as costs, labor supply shortages and high interest take a toll on home builders, especially in the Northeast and South. 

Apartment building was a more mixed picture, down nationally but up sharply in the Midwest (53%) and West (18%). 

New single–family homes dropped to an annual rate of 840,000, the lowest since May 2020, according to new U.S. Census Bureau survey results released Oct. 20. 

Single-family home completions fell in every region, especially in the Northeast (-17%) and South (-15%).  

Builders of single-family homes are stymied by rising mortgage rates, costs for energy and materials, and worsening labor supply, according to an October survey by the National Association of Home Builders. 

More than a third of home builders said immigration enforcement activity caused construction delays and discouraged legal workers from reporting for work, said  Bill Owens, chairman of the home builders group, in a statement. 

Buyer interest in new homes has fallen as costs rise, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said, and 43% of builders cut prices in October, the largest share in recent years. 

“Housing remains squeezed by supply-side constraints and significant affordability challenges,” Dietz said in a statement. 

New apartments came in at an annual rate of 339,000, an increase from August’s 295,000, which was the lowest since 2022. Apartment completions were down 64% in the Northeast and 37% in the South. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

The sheer size of investment in data centers is drawing concern as it surpasses all other historical booms and crowds out other more job-creating ventures. 

Until now, no industry had driven the U.S. economy with such force since the railroad expansion of the late 1800s, when titans battled one another to lay the transcontinental tracks that would connect America from coast to coast.

Railroads in the 19th century consumed about $173 billion in today’s dollars and created more than 2% of the nation’s annual economic output (GDP) over 20 years. 

Today’s data center buildout will dwarf that amount, with $10 trillion in investment, and now have almost twice the economic impact — nearly 4% of GDP. That’s according to a report created by a Columbia Business School professor, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

States are starting to feel left out of the windfall, many having granted tax exemptions before the boom. 

Years ago, before artificial intelligence prompted a tsunami of building, states typically welcomed data centers supporting internet traffic, offering tax abatements and other perks. Many officials now are rethinking that approach as tax revenues take a bigger hit and high energy demands take a toll on affordability. 

Nevada, for instance, trimmed tax abatements and will ask data centers to agree to foot the bill for energy and water demands, in a September executive order from Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. 

States where data center costs will be concentrated over the three years are Texas ($638 billion), Virginia ($249 billion), Ohio ($169 billion) and Georgia ($160 billion), according to projections from Industrial Info Resources, a market intelligence firm.   

Southern states dominate the landscape for the number of data centers planned, with large numbers also proposed in Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Washington state, according to a Pew Research Center report in April. 

The profitability of AI has yet to catch up with the expense of the buildout.

“It is not a pretty picture right now,” said IIR’s senior vice president of research, David Pickering. “I think it will become profitable once things settle down a bit and more legislation is put in place to regulate how we handle AI. 

“The big players will no doubt find a way to make it profitable,” he said.  

There are signs the staggering cost of data centers is crowding out other investments such as housing. 

Over the past two years new construction value for data centers has more than doubled to $85 billion annually, while all other construction value has dropped 8%, according to a Stateline analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data as of August.

As new data center value grew by $48 billion since 2024, new houses and apartments dropped by $29 billion, according to the data.

Adam Shapiro, a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, noted the change in a September social media post: “We’re seeing a pivotal shift in the US economy: investment is shifting away from residential investment and towards computers.” 

Some, like the economist Paul Krugman, see the shift as hurting employment in the long run, despite more current hiring for construction workers. 

“Because data centers employ so few workers, the vast spending on AI currently taking place will also significantly reduce the demand for labor,” Krugman wrote in an Oct. 11 analysis.

Josh Bivens, chief economist for the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, agreed that the economy’s recent dependence on data centers and other AI spending is unhealthy, calling it “a narrow base of growth, basically one sector, and a pretty fragile one.” 

“Anything that upsets expectations about the future potential profitability of AI investments will likely lead to pretty sharp cutbacks,” Bivens said. “I’m uneasy about how durable this strength might turn out to be.”

As for the historic nature of the buildout, Mark Higgins, author of a book on U.S. financial history, said there are parallels to the age of railroad building in the late 19th century.  

“Railroads were a huge investment,” Higgins said. “In the 1800’s most of the capital was foreign, and it would attract all this money from Europe, then everything would crash — there were several panics —and Americans would buy the distressed railroads and profit, because they knew which were the good ones.” 

Railroad construction, which did not include trains themselves, cost $4.3 billion between 1870 and 1890, about $173 billion in today’s dollars, according to historical figures provided to Stateline by Van Nieuwerburgh and adjusted for inflation.

Other large-scale construction booms consumed only about 1% or less of annual GDP: Canals in the early 19th century, electrification in the early 20th century, highways in the mid- to late-20th century, and telecoms and fiber between 1996 and 2003.

In a report this month the International Monetary Fund warned of the risk of lower stock prices if high expectations for AI fail to materialize. 

“Although core firms in the AI ecosystem have been profitable so far … weaker or less durable investment and profitability in AI could trigger a correction,” the report warned.

The buildout will also double electricity consumption, Van Nieuwerburgh estimated, a continual thorn for data center projects that need more power to process vast data troves to power AI applications. 

An Oregon report last month, which led to a continued freeze on data center approvals in the state, said the single most frequent concern in public comments is utility affordability.

An analysis from two universities in July found that the combination of data centers and cryptocurrency mining could raise electricity bills by 8% nationally, and as much as 25% in parts of Virginia. The report came from a collaboration between Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania and North Carolina State University. 

Virginia passed an electricity consumption surcharge specifically for data centers that began in July, in a budget compromise that preserved lucrative tax breaks for the data centers. Some localities with heavy concentrations are considering pauses, and at least one city has a moratorium.

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

Inflation grew to a 3.7% annual rate in September, according to an Oct. 14 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.4% in August. 

In the last consumer price inflation report before midterm elections, with voters already fed up with higher prices, September’s number was the highest since May, when it was 4.2%.

“Inflation has wiped out wage gains for 6 months now,” Heather Long, the chief economist for Navy Federal, wrote in a social media post. “It’s a financial squeeze. Americans are trying to work more hours to make up for it, but many are still falling behind.”

Spikes in energy prices were largely responsible: Gas is now up 34% for the year, and fuel oil, which includes diesel, is up 72% as the Iran war drags on. 

States including Georgia, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have enacted gas tax relief measures recently to battle rising prices. North Carolina expects to lose more than $362 million in tax revenue for the fiscal year because of a gas tax holiday. 

New York state estimates fuel oil prices are up 67% from last year, with home heating oil at $6.21 a gallon as of this month. Connecticut announced plans Oct. 13 for additional state aid for home heating assistance, partly because of high prices for delivered oil.  

Other than energy, the largest factor was food away from home, up 3.5%. The only decreases were medical care products, down 3.3%, and used cars and trucks, up for the month but still down 1.5% for the year. So-called “core” inflation outside of volatile food and energy was a more modest 2.6%. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

A perfect storm of harsh immigration enforcement, aging journeymen and a building boom for data centers is wreaking havoc on the nation’s supply of skilled trade workers. 

Automakers and construction contractors say they need more access to workers through accelerated training, steady immigration and a cultural shift to encourage young people to do the hard, dirty work of skilled trades. They’re looking for plumbers, electricians, carpenters, machinists and technicians — specializations increasingly in short supply. 

Worker shortages are the top reason for construction project delays, a September survey by the Association of General Contractors of America found. Applicants are there, but half of the contractors who were surveyed said too many job candidates are unqualified and need more training. 

The association cited both the demand for workers building data centers and tougher immigration enforcement as contributing causes for the shortage.  

“Over 50% of craft workers are born outside the United States. We don’t know that they’re illegal but frankly DHS (the Department of Homeland Security) is not being that discriminating in whom they pick up or who feels threatened by them,” said Ken Simonson, the chief economist for the Association of General Contractors of America. One answer is for the government to allow more worker visas for construction and other trades, he said. 

“We’ve been stymied for 20 years or longer trying to get construction treated similarly to agriculture, where if you can demonstrate that there isn’t enough Americans interested in a job you can bring in somebody,” Simonson said. 

Pay is rising for the skilled trades, but it’s hard to say how soon higher wages would attract more people. On social media, trades workers complain of long commutes to work sites, long waits through low-paid apprenticeships and a feeling they’re not valued as much as office workers.

“Getting up at 4am-5am. Driving 50 plus miles to random job sites. Obviously the dirty part which is construction sites and inhaling dust and dirt all day. Seeing people in corporate jobs in nice clothes while I’m dirty going on lunch break,” wrote a 30-year-old on a Reddit social media post in July, concluding that they should have finished a college chemistry degree.

Thousands agreed, including a 31-year-old tradesperson from Michigan who said top pay in their field, plumbing and HVAC, is attractive but that many make less than $70,000. 

“Been in the trades since I was 16 and recently started going back to college,” the person wrote. “Everybody I know who chose a degree over an apprenticeship is starting to outpace me in life buying houses and having kids while we’re check to check and getting less healthy by the day. “

These are the concerns employers have to address if they’re going to find enough workers to build homes, cars and data centers for artificial intelligence. Ford Motor Company and the Ad Council announced a publicity campaign to bring more young people into the trades, with a video declaring “millions of skilled trade jobs are waiting for people ready to do something, with great pay, job security and work you can take pride in.” 

Ford and the alliance didn’t mention immigration enforcement as an issue, but the Association of General Contractors and an unrelated survey of roofers both mentioned it as a prominent factor in reducing the supply of skilled workers. 

John Burns Research and Consulting, an independent housing research company, reported that many of the roofers it surveyed earlier this year saw immigration enforcement as hurting their business. 

“There are no American kids willing to install roofs in Central Texas,” said one roofing contractor in anonymous quotes published by the group. 

“Tough immigration reform and not enough Americans to fill the void,” said another. 

“A lot of these people have been deported. The next generation is complacent and does not want to do physical work,” said a Florida roofer. 

Elizabeth LaJeunesse, vice president of building products research at John Burns, said the vehemence of responses about immigration was surprising. 

“Most of these firms are pretty conservative, so this is a real phenomenon we’re picking up on, that level of concern over immigration enforcement,” LaJeunesse said.

Duane Musser, vice president for government relations for the National Roofing Contractors Association, said the responses are typical of what he hears from members. Immigration as well as better trade education are critical to roofing, he said. 

“Advocating for solutions to workforce shortages, including expanded career and technical education programs and bipartisan immigration reform, is a top priority,” Musser said. 

The DHS told Stateline in an unattributed statement that “those who are here legally and are not breaking other laws have nothing to fear” and that “we will continue to enforce our nation’s laws and remove illegal aliens from American communities.” 

In September a Trump-appointed federal judge stayed a federal practice of entering construction sites without a warrant to investigate immigration status. One construction worker of Mexican descent in Alabama complained that he had been detained three times since 2025 despite showing a state driver’s license demonstrating that he was a citizen born in Florida. 

Immigrant workers make up a majority of roofers, painters and stucco masons, according to a Stateline analysis last year.  

The nation will need 1.7 million new skilled trade workers every year through 2035, according to a September report by Alliance for America’s Skilled Trades, a trade group including Ford Motor Company, toolmakers and other businesses. Training programs produce just more than half the numbers needed, and only half of those who enroll in skilled training programs finish, the report found.  

Nine states were identified by the alliance report as having high demand but low supply of skilled labor: Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. 

Florida ranks first for demand for skilled workers, but nearly last for supply, higher only than Maine. Not enough new Florida workers are coming online as building in the state booms and current workers near retirement age. The state’s Association of General Contractors’ chapter hopes the advancements in workforce AI will drive more young adults into construction jobs since those can’t be replaced by chatbots.

Other states have the opposite issue: ranking high for new workers but low in demand for them, based on recent hiring and future projections. 

In the top 10 for worker supply but bottom 10 for demand: Indiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming. 

The alliance report suggested employers themselves need to help train future workers. The companies building data centers, in particular, want those tradespeople.

“America needs hundreds of thousands of electricians, welders and fiber technicians to build AI infrastructure,” said Dina Powell McCormick, president and vice chairman of Meta, in a statement, adding that the alliance is “paying for the training, removing the barriers that keep people from stepping into these careers, and guaranteeing a job at the end of it.”

Shoua Thao, 40,  is straddling the line between trades and AI as a machinist in the computer-assisted manufacturing business known as CNC machining, which uses computer code to control production. The son of Hmong refugees in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, Thao is now experimenting with AI production techniques. 

“Trades are the one career path that doesn’t lie,” he said. “You can’t hide lower skills in a trade, whereas middle management and white collar jobs are protected by the vagueness of the job.”

Eventually trades could become a more valued career path than college, Thao said, though he has been discouraged at times by low pay and long hours that take time away from family.

“I think it will be a slow process but eventually, sometime in the future, maybe my children’s future, trades will take over,” Thao said. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

Measles cases for the calendar year surpassed 4,000 for the first time in decades, with as many as five deaths in Pennsylvania, as the federal government steps in with financial help for states but also fans vaccination fears and skepticism. 

A weekly report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed 4,080 cases this year as of Oct. 8, up 192 cases in a week. 

Pennsylvania, which has reported five confirmed deaths from measles, alone had 142 new cases for the week — for a total of 1,105 for the year. The CDC has recognized just two of the state’s reported deaths.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has protested the CDC’s death count; his state’s five deaths would be more than the three deaths reported in 2025 for the entire nation.   

Other states with large numbers of cases, more than 200, did not see their case numbers change for the week: South Carolina (670 for the year), Utah (535) and Wisconsin (207). States with more cases included New York, which declared a measles emergency, with 19 new cases for a total of 103 this year; and Iowa, up 17 cases to 39. 

Kentucky reported separately on Friday that cases there had reached 104, up 10 from last week. 

Pennsylvania, which has become ground zero for this year’s outbreaks, reported this week that a new awareness and pop-up vaccine clinics are leading to more measles vaccinations.   

All but five states have had at least one measles case this year. The last time the United States had this many cases was in 1991, reaching 9,643 cases as the nation still struggled to roll out vaccinations for the disease, amid budget cuts that hit programs in big cities. 

Pennsylvania’s health department this week announced “a surge of interest” in vaccinations as more residents become aware of the outbreak — more than 56,000 doses were given out in September, more than twice the usual monthly volume. The state has added pop-up clinics in the most affected areas.  All but four of the measles cases were among unvaccinated people. 

The Lewistown Sentinel reported that an 18-year-old woman there died in September from brain swelling as a result of the measles virus after two of her brothers survived the disease. 

While the federal government has offered states more funding to combat measles, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy moved forward this week on plans to emphasize vaccine injury, announcing a new clinic and work to strengthen a database that tracks problems after a vaccination. 

“We must listen to patients and families who report vaccine injuries — not dismiss or gaslight them,” Kennedy said in a statement. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

Jobs across the United States rose by 29,000 in September, a disappointing result as recent growth was also revised down in Friday’s monthly jobs report, the last one before midterm elections. 

September growth was a large dip from a strong August number that was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000 in the new report. July jobs were also revised from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report. 

“This is a textbook weak jobs report,” economist Kathryn Anne Edwards said on a live chat on Substack after the release.

The fact that earnings, up 3%, are not keeping up with 3.4% inflation, means “We can say pretty categorically that things got worse for workers this month,” Edwards said.

Average hourly earnings increased slightly to $37.81, up 3% from a year ago. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, but still a decrease from 4.4% in September 2025. 

Speaking on Fox News, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, tried to frame the joblessness increase as a result of a labor market that more potential workers have returned to since August. 

“People are seeing the strong labor market and they’re saying, ‘Oh I need to get back in the labor force because I’m going to make so much money.’ That’s one reason why the unemployment rate just ticked in a different direction,” Hassett said. 

The labor force increased by 485,000 people in September, according to the report, but that’s still a decrease of a million from September 2025. . 

Black unemployment jumped 1 point to 7% for the month, though it also is down from 7.6% in September 2025. 

Health care jobs led September job growth at 16,700. That’s still a slowdown from an average of 33,000 per month over the past year as hospitals continue to seek financial stability. Some health systems had layoffs last month in Vermont and New Hampshire. Government jobs dropped by 17,000, mostly in local governments. 

The freight economy has been reeling from the impact of high diesel prices, and job losses have been announced in that industry. Nonetheless the federal statistics show a monthly job increase of 2,600 in September for truck transportation jobs, but a drop of 4,100 in warehousing and storage jobs. 

An alternative jobs report from payroll processor ADP found a 90,000-job gain in September, with more than half of those coming gains in the Mid-Atlantic region of New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.  

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.