Americans’ growing frustration over high prices has defined many political campaigns ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Rising costs of healthcare, gas and groceries during President Donald Trump’s second term have put Republicans on defense, not only in Washington, but in statehouse and gubernatorial races across the country.

As the political environment continues to sour for Republicans, a new analysis released by the Urban Institute on Monday underscores just how expensive everyday life has become in America: Gas and electricity prices are rising much faster than paychecks. Housing, childcare and healthcare are becoming a bigger strain for millions of people. 

And affordability pressure is worsening in once-affordable havens such as Atlanta; Louisville, Kentucky; and Rochester, New York, where costs of housing, groceries and healthcare are increasing faster than the national average.

The latest installment of The American Affordability Tracker from the left-leaning think tank details how costs of food, housing, energy and healthcare have changed across all 50 states over recent years. High prices are pinching people across income brackets, with an estimated 49% of families unable to afford the basic costs of living. That’s according to Urban Institute’s true cost of economic security calculation, which measures how much is needed to live securely.

“We’re not saying that 49% of people are poor. We’re saying that they’re not secure,” said Gregory Acs, an Urban Institute fellow who worked on the research project. “Even if they’re paying all their bills, they’re paying all their bills at best.”

He said the analysis confirms that the economic angst so many people feel is justified — despite strong national economic indicators such as low unemployment and growing gross domestic product.

“They are not crazy. They’re not making it up,” Acs said. “They’re not being marketed into feeling bad. They really do have struggles.”

Among other findings, the report shows that average annual childcare costs for two young children have risen $6,600 over the past decade. Since January 2025, gas prices have risen by 33% — an average increase of $1.02 per gallon nationally. And premiums for benchmark plans on the Affordable Care Act Marketplace are up 22% since last year, now averaging $611 per month.

Affordability politics

Those struggles have become a political liability for Republicans, who control the White House, both chambers of Congress, most state legislatures and a majority of governor’s offices. 

All midterm elections, as a referendum on the sitting president, are difficult for incumbents in the majority. But this cycle is particularly charged because of Trump’s promises to improve the economy during his 2024 campaign, said Todd Belt, a professor of political management at The George Washington University.

“He hasn’t done that. In fact, in a lot of ways, he’s made things worse,” Belt said, citing Trump’s unilateral war in Iran and tariff policies — both of which have driven up costs. “And so Donald Trump is bringing down the Republican ticket.”

Some Democrats have proposed new policies to help lower costs, following the lead of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani whose winning campaign last year promised free buses and childcare. But many others are simply benefiting from the sinking approval ratings of the president — driven largely by high prices. 

“For the Democrats, it’s enough to not be Donald Trump,” Belt said. “People are feeling it, and you can’t out-message it. You can’t out-message what people are feeling in their finances and what they know prices to be as they go to the gas station every week, as they see it in the grocery store.”

Republican officials have recognized the political drag of rising prices. 

Vice President JD Vance has publicly acknowledged Americans’ growing frustration with high prices, particularly for gas, telling voters “we’re working on it,” during a CBS News town hall in Michigan earlier this month. 

But Trump has often downplayed such concerns, calling affordability “a hoax” promulgated by Democrats. Campaigning for Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall last week in an unexpectedly competitive race, Trump blamed previous President Joe Biden for rising prices. Trump pledged that the war in Iran would end soon.

“And when it does, you’re going to see the biggest drop in oil that anyone’s ever seen,” he said. 

Wide-ranging impacts

Rising prices are hitting consumers and businesses alike.

Earlier this month, Small Business for America’s Future, a coalition of business owners across the country, released results of a new survey that found many small employers are struggling with high costs of utilities, fuel, business supplies and employee healthcare.

Nearly two-thirds of the 1,171 businesses owners surveyed said they had recently cut or skipped their own pay to keep their operations afloat. Nearly half said customers are spending significantly less, and more than two-thirds said they had delayed, canceled or scaled back investments because of uncertainty about federal economic policy. 

Walt Rowen, co-chair of that coalition, said in a news release his own business exemplified the challenges facing Main Street operations across the country. He’s the president of the 116-year-old Susquehanna Glass Company in Columbia, Pennsylvania. Tariffs have disrupted supply chains, he said, and driven up heating oil costs.

“We’ve lived through the Depression, wars, and recessions,” his statement said. “Heating my factory in this current economy is some of the hardest math I’ve ever had to do, and I’m expecting the bill to jump 30% to 40% this winter.”

High prices are hitting consumers across demographic and geographic borders.

Acs, the Urban Institute researcher, said rising prices squeeze more than just the poorest Americans. Many middle income earners are struggling to cover the costs of healthcare, higher education and housing, “feeling like they’re on a treadmill at best,” he said. 

The Urban Institute’s recent analysis also highlighted rising price challenges in regions long considered affordable. 

In Arizona, gas and electricity price increases are outstripping other parts of the country: Arizonans pay an average of $219 per month for electricity, the highest in the U.S. and nearly $50 more than the national average. 

In the battleground state of Wisconsin, where gas and electricity costs are well below the national average, parents face disproportionately high costs for childcare: Parents there spend an average of $30,800 per year for care for two young children — $6,900 more than the national average.

“I think there is an old story that affordability really is a coastal problem,” Acs said. “What we’re trying to illustrate is that it’s not just high-cost areas where costs are an issue. Costs are an issue throughout the country.”

Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org.

Inflation grew to a 3.7% annual rate in September, according to an Oct. 14 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.4% in August. 

In the last consumer price inflation report before midterm elections, with voters already fed up with higher prices, September’s number was the highest since May, when it was 4.2%.

“Inflation has wiped out wage gains for 6 months now,” Heather Long, the chief economist for Navy Federal, wrote in a social media post. “It’s a financial squeeze. Americans are trying to work more hours to make up for it, but many are still falling behind.”

Spikes in energy prices were largely responsible: Gas is now up 34% for the year, and fuel oil, which includes diesel, is up 72% as the Iran war drags on. 

States including Georgia, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have enacted gas tax relief measures recently to battle rising prices. North Carolina expects to lose more than $362 million in tax revenue for the fiscal year because of a gas tax holiday. 

New York state estimates fuel oil prices are up 67% from last year, with home heating oil at $6.21 a gallon as of this month. Connecticut announced plans Oct. 13 for additional state aid for home heating assistance, partly because of high prices for delivered oil.  

Other than energy, the largest factor was food away from home, up 3.5%. The only decreases were medical care products, down 3.3%, and used cars and trucks, up for the month but still down 1.5% for the year. So-called “core” inflation outside of volatile food and energy was a more modest 2.6%. 

Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

WASHINGTON — The Social Security Administration announced on Wednesday that recipients will receive a 3.6% increase in benefits in 2027.

The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will begin for 72 million Social Security beneficiaries in January. It will apply for Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, recipients beginning on Dec. 31. 

Some individuals receive both types of benefits. SSI provides payments to 7.3 million people with limited income and resources.

The COLA is based on continuing inflation, as recorded in the Consumer Price Index from the third quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026.

On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $75 a month, the agency said. 

Tax rates to fund the program will stay virtually unchanged, at 6.2% of income up to a certain amount. The cap will increase slightly from $184,500 this year to $192,300 in 2027. 

Social Security is facing a shortfall, with payments to recipients outpacing tax collections. 

Without congressional action, that will mean benefits will automatically begin to decrease in 2032. Candidates in key U.S. Senate races this year, whose six-year terms would mean they’ll be in office when the benefits cliff arrives, have stayed relatively quiet on the issue.

WASHINGTON — Democrats are more motivated to vote in November’s midterm elections than Republicans, potentially giving the party an advantage to flip at least one chamber of Congress, according to a poll released Tuesday by the nonpartisan health organization KFF.

Democratic candidates also held an edge with voter confidence in their ability to address the rising cost of healthcare and everyday goods as well as abortion policy, though the parties were mostly tied when it came to addressing fraud in government programs. Republicans are trusted “to do a better job handling” immigration. 

“Of all the cost-of-living worries hitting voters now, a big health care bill is the least predictable, and that’s a big reason why health care costs are right up there with gas prices and the costs of food and housing on voters’ minds,” KFF President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman said in a statement. 

A majority of respondents, 66%, said they favor a candidate who supports a national health plan, which Democrats often refer to as Medicare-for-all. That support, however, fluctuates depending on how the question was asked. 

Seventy-six percent of those polled said they support a nationwide health plan when told it would “guarantee health insurance for all Americans.” The level of support was about the same, 75%, when people were told it would “eliminate all insurance premiums and reduce out-of-pocket costs for most Americans.” 

A slight majority, 52%, of respondents said they’d support a Medicare-for-all type plan when told it would “eliminate private health insurance companies.” Approval dropped to 38% when those polled were told it could “threaten the current Medicare program” and then to 35% when informed it would “require most Americans to pay more in taxes.” 

Support for a nationwide health plan decreased to 24% when those polled were told it could “lead to delays in people getting some medical tests and treatments.”

When broken down by political party, far more Democrats, 84%, than Republicans, 35%, supported a nationwide health plan like Medicare-for-all.  

Voters seek change

Regardless of which party secures control of the U.S. House and Senate following the November midterm elections, a significant number of those polled want to see lawmakers work to change the country’s healthcare system. 

Forty-nine percent said that “there are some good things about our healthcare system, but major changes are needed.” An additional 36% said “there is so much wrong with our healthcare system that it needs to be completely overhauled.” Another 13% said the country’s health system “works pretty well, but minor changes are needed.” And just 2% said there should be no changes. 

When asked what motivates people to vote in this year’s election, 20% of those polled said they wanted to bring about change, 19% said to stop President Donald Trump, 15% said they believe the country is in a crisis, 11% said the rising cost of living, 10% said to vote out Republicans, 9% said to protect democracy, 8% said to keep Democrats out of power, 7% said to end corruption and 6% said it was due to concerns about socialism or communism. 

Dems hold enthusiasm edge

Forty-seven percent of those polled said they were more motivated to vote in this year’s elections than they were in the past, while 41% said they were about as motivated and 12% said they were less motivated. 

Democrats had a clear motivation advantage over Republicans with 63% of Democratic supporters saying they were more motivated and 28% saying they were about as motivated as they were during earlier elections. 

Thirty-eight percent of Republicans are more motivated and 53% said they were about as motivated as past elections. 

KFF polled 1,328 U.S. adults, including 1,013 voters, in English and in Spanish between Sept. 16 and Sept. 21. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.