Robert F. Kennedy Jr. promotes "real food" at a rally in Harrisburg, Penn., last month. Over the next decade, obesity rates across the nation could surge to close to half of U.S. adults, a new study says. (Photo by Whitney Downard/Pennsylvania Capital-Star)
Over the next decade, obesity rates across the nation could surge to close to half of U.S. adults, a new study published in the medical journal JAMA estimates.
Researchers at the University of Washington conducted the analysis using body mass index data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and self-reported weight data from a national survey of adults ages 20 and older. They examined the 2022 rates and created estimates for 2035 based on current trends. The researchers also looked at race, ethnicity and state-level data, finding wide disparities across states and racial groups.
About a fifth of U.S. adults were living with obesity in 1990. By 2022, the percentage increased to nearly 43%. Obesity was more prevalent in states in the Midwest and South.
If current trends continue, about 47% of U.S. adults will be living with obesity by 2035, according to the researchers. Obesity rates are projected to increase among Americans of all ages and racial groups.
In 2022, non-Hispanic Black women had the highest age-standardized obesity rate, at about 57%, followed by Hispanic women at 49%. Hispanic males, non-Hispanic white males and females, and non-Hispanic Black males had similar rates, ranging from about 40% to nearly 43%.
The study comes amid exploding demand for weight-loss drugs, and as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. continues to push his Make America Healthy Again campaign.
HHS and the U.S. Department of Agriculture last month made changes to the federal food pyramid, placing a greater emphasis on animal protein, dairy and fats. Like the previous guidelines, the new pyramid discourages the consumption of processed foods, which can cause weight gain.
Despite disparities between men and women and between racial groups, HHS says its nutrition strategy moves away from the “health equity” focus of the Biden administration, in favor of making “the health of all Americans the primary goal.”
For Hispanic people, obesity rates were generally higher in states in the Midwest and the South in 2022, a pattern that is expected to continue through 2035.
In 2022, the obesity rate for Hispanic women was highest in Oklahoma, at about 54%. For Hispanic men, the rate was highest in Indiana, at roughly 47%. In 2035, Indiana is projected to have the highest rate of obesity among Hispanic men at about 54%, while the highest rate for Hispanic women, nearly 60%, is expected to be in South Dakota.
The Midwest and South also had high rates of obesity for non-Hispanic white men and women. In 2022, West Virginia had the highest obesity rates for white men and women — about 47% and 49%, respectively. In 2022, obesity rates for white men and women were lowest in the District of Columbia, at roughly 24% for men and 26% for women.
Among Black women, obesity rates were over 50% for all states, except Hawaii, in 2022. That pattern is expected to continue through 2035. Black men have lower obesity rates than Black women across all states. In 2022, the highest obesity rate for Black men was in Oklahoma, at about 44%. That rate projected to rise to 49% in 2035.
“While no locations were predicted to have decreases in obesity prevalence between 2022 and 2035, there were many with small increases over this time,” the authors wrote. They pointed to Mississippi, where Black women had the highest obesity rates between 1990 and 2022, but are projected to see one of the smallest changes — an increase of about 1.8% — by 2035.
“Predictions in states with historically high levels of obesity, such as Mississippi, suggest that the prevalence of obesity may be plateauing in some locations,” the researchers wrote.
This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Wisconsin Examiner, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
President Donald Trump displays a signed bill in the Oval Office on Jan. 14, 2026. Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, which restores whole milk to school lunches across the country. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump signed a law Wednesday that will restore whole milk in federally subsidized school lunches.
The dairy staple — out of school meal programs for more than a decade amid a broader push to curb childhood obesity — will soon return to school cafeterias under the law.
Trump said during a signing ceremony in the Oval Office that the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act will “ensure that millions of school-aged children have access to high-quality milk as we make America healthy again.”
Seated with a jug of milk on the Resolute Desk, Trump said the changes will also be “major victories for the American dairy farmers who we love and who voted for me in great numbers.”
White House ceremony
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins celebrated the legislation becoming law and said her department would post Wednesday the “new rulemaking that is necessary to get whole milk back into school lunches.”
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also lauded Trump’s efforts and described the measure as a “long overdue correction of the school nutrition policy that puts children’s health first.”
Trump was also joined by Dr. Ben Carson, national advisor for nutrition, health, and housing at USDA, along with Democratic Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont, GOP Sens. John Boozman of Arkansas, Mike Crapo of Idaho and Roger Marshall of Kansas, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and advocates who supported the bill.
Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson of Pennsylvania, who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, and Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan, chair of the House Committee on Education and Workforce, also attended the ceremony.
The U.S. House passed the bill in December, following unanimous passage in the Senate in November.
Welch and Marshall, along with Pennsylvania Sens. Dave McCormick, a Republican, and John Fetterman, a Democrat, introduced the measure in the Senate.
Thompson and Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier of Washington state brought corresponding legislation in the House.
What the new law does
Under the law, schools that are part of the USDA’s National School Lunch Program can offer “flavored and unflavored organic or nonorganic whole, reduced-fat, low-fat, and fat-free fluid milk and lactose-free fluid milk.”
The program — which provides free or low-cost lunches in public and nonprofit private schools and residential child care institutions — saw nearly 29.4 million children participate on a typical day during the 2023-2024 school year, according to the Food Research & Action Center.
The schools can also provide “nondairy beverages that are nutritionally equivalent to fluid milk and meet the nutritional standards established by” the Agriculture secretary.
The law exempts milk fat from being considered saturated fat as it applies to schools’ “allowable average saturated fat content of a meal.”
Parents and guardians, as well as physicians, can also offer a written statement for their student to receive a nondairy milk substitute.
Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association, celebrated the bill becoming law in a Wednesday statement.
Dykes dubbed the law a “win for our children, parents, and school nutrition leaders, giving schools the flexibility to offer the flavored and unflavored milk options, across all healthy fat levels, that meet students’ needs and preferences.”
The signing marked the second major nutrition policy change this month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services released the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which encourages more full-fat dairy and protein.
Jack Link’s, the world’s largest manufacturer of meat snacks, has spent years integrating itself into the country’s cultural and political arenas.
Riding a wave of protein-crazed consumers and a booming snack industry, the company’s iconic Sasquatch marketing campaign has helped its products become a staple in gas stations, grocery checkout lines and school vending machines.
The company has also spent years cultivating deep political ties, funneling millions to Donald Trump and nurturing a relationship with the president that has led to White House access.
Trump has been a strong supporter of the meat industry and welcomed Jack Link’s officials to a White House event during his first term. However, the Trump administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement is currently pushing for healthier eating standards and for states to restrict processed foods in their nutrition programs.
Now, Jack Link’s and the processed meat industry are caught between conflicting ideologies within the Trump administration and a battle over the future of food policy.
“There’s very much a conflict within this administration about the role of corporate power and public health,” said Judith McGeary, executive director of the Texas-based sustainable agriculture and farmer advocacy group Farm and Ranch Freedom Alliance.
In May, the federal MAHA commission, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., recommended in a new report that Americans consume fewer sugary drinks, snacks and processed foods.
While the report didn’t specifically mention processed meat snacks, it grabbed the attention of snack giants like Jack Link’s and other corporate agriculture groups, which are opposed to any additional regulations or changes to the food industry, McGeary said.
The report did note that low-income children and families consume more processed meat than their peers and that these products have been classified as carcinogens linked to serious health risks.
Kennedy, along with U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, has encouraged states to restrict what foods can be purchased with benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP.
States, from West Virginia to California, have responded by approving bans that limit purchases of sugary beverages, snacks and foods with dyes and artificial ingredients.
Jack Link’s responded by hiring a lobbying firm, a move that paid off when it faced increased regulations during Trump’s first term.
Jack Link’s benefits from political, consumer trends
Minong, Wisconsin — a small, rural village in the state’s northwestern tip, home to taverns, gravel roads, rows of northern Wisconsin pine trees, and plenty of grazing land for beef cattle — is one of dozens of small towns across the state with roots in the cattle and lumber industries.
Minong is also home to a bigfoot-sized footprint of Jack Link’s that is hard to ignore.
Jack Link’s, owned by Link Snacks, is a $2 billion, privately owned company with dual headquarters in Minong and downtown Minneapolis, a few hours away.
Jack Link’s has dual corporate headquarters in Minong, Wis., and Minneapolis, pictured here on July 3, 2025. (Steven Garcia for Investigate Midwest)
The company employs roughly 4,000 people worldwide. Jack Link’s leadership has long served on local college and hospital boards and, in 2016, broke ground for the Jack Link’s Aquatic & Activity Center in Minong.
What started in the late 1980s as a family-owned jerky company has evolved into a global enterprise with offices and production plants in Canada, Australia, Mexico and Brazil.
Troy Link, son of company founder and current board member John “Jack” Link, has led the company’s global expansion since he became CEO in 2013.
Link has also developed a relationship with the Trump administration over the years by hosting private fundraising events and donating to his campaigns.
Last year, Link also donated half a million dollars to America PAC, a political action committee founded and operated by Elon Musk, according to Federal Elections Committee filings.
This donation placed Link among a highly influential group of donors and prominent technology and cryptocurrency industry moguls, such as Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.
Link donated $1.3 million during Trump’s 2020 re-election bid and also welcomed the president to a private fundraiser in July 2020 at his Florida mansion.
As a whole, the Link family has donated roughly $2.3 million to candidates, committees and state parties in the last decade. The majority of this occurred during the 2020 and 2024 Trump campaigns.
In 2018, the company was invited to the White House as part of a “Made In America” exhibition, where each state showcased a single business with products made in the country.
Troy Link did not respond to repeated requests for comment regarding the relationship of Jack Link’s and the Trump administration.
This relationship with politicians has served the company in the past. In Trump’s first term, Jack Link’s lobbied for beef jerky and meat snack sticks to qualify for the nation’s Child Nutrition Programs, such as school meals.
An Obama-era rule prohibited the reimbursement of beef jerky and dried meat products for school food purchases in 2011. When the rules were revisited under Trump in 2018, Jack Link’s argued in documents submitted to the USDA that dried meat products should receive the same crediting and treatment as other meat, like hamburgers and chicken strips.
“These food products should be held to the same standard as any other meat product when determining eligibility,” a Jack Link’s attorney wrote. “Currently, this is not the case because USDA has arbitrarily disqualified dried meat products from the program.”
A bipartisan trio of Wisconsin federal officials came to the aid of Jack Link’s during this regulatory update, with Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and former Congressman and current U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy writing in support of this change soon after.
“We are concerned that (Food and Nutrition Service) has overstepped in excluding this entire product class from consideration,” the officials wrote in a February 2018 letter. “Therefore, we respectfully request USDA to reevaluate this categorical exclusion.”
Link family members donated a combined $73,000 to the authors of the letter.
The lobbying effort worked. The Food and Nutrition Service announced in December 2018 that beef jerky and dried meat products were now eligible for reimbursement as part of school snacks and meals. Jack Link’s currently markets its snacks directly to school food purchasers.
The addition of school contracts and other market growth helped fuel the company’s expansion.
In recent years, Jack Link’s has broken ground on new manufacturing facilities across the country and purchased jerky companies from Tyson Foods and British packaged goods giant Unilever.
The company also launched Lorissa’s Kitchen, a healthy meat snack brand fronted by Troy’s spouse, Lorissa, and sold at Walmart and Costco nationwide. The brand differentiates itself from Jack Link’s by selling snacks “without added preservatives, nitrites or MSG and allergen-free products,” according to company media statements.
During the 2024 Republican National Convention, Link also appeared on a Fox News business segment to argue that inflation under Biden was making it more expensive for consumers to purchase snacks.
“Buying snacks should not be a luxury item; this should be an everyday occurrence,” Link said. “We just need to put more money back into the consumer’s pocket.”
Protein snacks boom amid calls to reduce meat consumption
As Jack Link’s worked to build a close relationship with the Trump administration, meat consumption was booming, especially thanks to right-wing influencers.
Online personalities, such as podcast hosts Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson, have advocated for all-meat diets, including raw meat and eggs.
The connection between meat consumption and conservative politics dates back decades, according to food studies researcher Adrienne Bitar.
“Higher meat consumption has always been understood as sort of more conservative,” said Bitar, author of “Diet and the Disease of Civilization.”
“Where it comes up in the alt-right is the idea that the feminizing effects of civilization are unnatural, restrictive, repressive, and to liberate yourself from the accoutrements of civilization means to follow your appetite, with the hunger for meat being one of those appetites.”
Meat snacks sales increased 40% from 2019 to 2022, according to an industry report. The desire for more protein-dense snacks has risen across the entire food sector, from protein-packed popcorn to chocolate muffins.
However, the nation’s protein consumption far outpaces that of similar nations and needs to be reassessed, according to grocery experts and leading nutritionists.
“Unless you’re a competitive athlete or competitive bodybuilder, you’re probably eating too much protein,” said Errol Schweizer, publisher of The Checkout Grocery Update, a grocery industry publication, and former vice president of grocery for the multinational supermarket Whole Foods.
As protein rises in popularity among consumers, many nutritionists say Americans need more fruits and vegetables in their diet. (Mónica Cordero / Investigate Midwest)
Schweizer said the popularity of protein snacks has ebbed and flowed with American consumers, following the trends of certain diets and lifestyles over the past few decades. U.S. consumers are “obsessed” with protein intake, he said, and typically have diets that consist of fewer fresh fruits, vegetables, fiber and healthy fats.
Schweizer’s observations align with the nation’s blueprint for diet and nutrition.
Updated every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans helps shape national standards for nutrition labeling, school meals and chronic disease prevention.
In October 2024, the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, a 20-person group of nutrition experts, released its recommended updates to both the USDA and the HHS. Now those two agencies will review recommendations and public comments to set the final dietary guidelines later this year.
Since 2000, the panel has consistently urged Americans to cut back on red and processed meats in favor of lean meat, seafood and plant-based proteins.
The committee’s 2024 report recommends diets “lower in red and processed meats, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages, refined grains and saturated fats.”
The country’s leading meat industry group, The Meat Institute, whose members include Jack Link’s and other major meatpacking and meat snack companies, has argued against the committee’s recommendations.
“The Meat Institute is extremely concerned that consumers will inaccurately perceive meat and poultry products as poor dietary choices, which may lead to a variety of unintended consequences, including nutritional deficiencies in certain sub-populations,” the Virginia-based group wrote to the HHS in February.
The National Pork Board, the pork checkoff organization based in Clive, Iowa, wrote to the health department in February, stating that recommendations to reduce consumption of red meats are short-sighted and efforts to push foods such as legumes and beans over meats “does not seem to be supported by a robust body of evidence.”
“The elevation of plant-based protein sources over lean meats could inadvertently discourage the consumption of nutrient-dense lean meats, thus increasing the risk of nutritional deficiencies,” the letter stated.
In its inaugural report, the MAHA Commission wrote that the Dietary Guidelines for Americans has a “history of being unduly influenced by corporate interests,” noting how a past attempt to reduce the push for reducing intake of processed meats has been met with backlash and scientific discrediting from the meat industry.
Processed food industry fortifies as feds debate SNAP, diet guidelines
In late June, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, flanked by Kennedy in the state capitol, announced a sweeping set of executive orders to remove processed foods and foods with additives from the state’s nutrition programs.
“For far too long, we have settled for food that has made us sicker as a nation,” said Stitt at a June press event. “In Oklahoma, we’re choosing common sense, medical freedom, and personal responsibility. President Trump and Secretary Kennedy have led the charge nationally; I’m grateful for their support as we Make Oklahoma Healthy Again.”
Other states have followed suit with Arkansas, Indiana, West Virginia and California enacting bans on processed foods from SNAP purchases, or are exploring ways to reduce ultra-processed foods in the state, often with the support of Kennedy and Rollins and other federal leaders.
However, Joelle Johnson, deputy director for the food and nutrition consumer advocacy group Center for Science in the Public Interest, said despite growing debates about ultra-processed foods in the nation’s food programs, there is a lack of clear guidance from the federal government to retailers and food purchasers about what would and wouldn’t qualify as being ultra-processed.
“I would be surprised if we see bans of ultra-processed foods in SNAP, beyond candy and sweetened beverages, anytime soon,” she said.
Still, major snack and processed food companies, including Jack Link’s, are bracing for any changes that could harm their sales.
The Jack Link’s corporate headquarters as seen on July 3, 2025. (Steven Garcia for Investigate Midwest)
Consumer Brands Association, a Virginia-based organization representing major packaged food companies, including Tyson Foods and Coca-Cola, spent $42 million in lobbying over the past decade, focusing on issues including SNAP funding and dietary guidelines, among other issues.
Since 2023, the organization has worked with lobbyist Clete Willems, the deputy assistant of international economics during Trump’s first term and a former Obama administration official, according to lobbying disclosure documents.
Conagra Brands, the publicly traded, packaged food conglomerate that owns major brands such as Slim Jims, Orville Redenbacher, Birds Eye Frozen Foods and Reddi-Wip, spent over half a million dollars in the past year lobbying federal officials and has spent $4.6 million in lobbying in the past decade. Conagra and Consumer Brands Association did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
In April, Link Snacks, the parent company of Jack Link’s, hired lobbying firm Bockorny Group, which has also represented the meatpacking company Agri-Beef Co. and pork industry publication National Hog Farmer. This was the first time the beef jerky giant has lobbied federal officials.
Lobbyists working for Jack Link’s include Pete Lawson, a former VP for Ford Motors and staff attorney for Virginia Democratic Congressman Jim Moran, and Eric Bohl, a former staffer for the congressional offices of Missouri Republicans Vicky Hartzler and Jason Smith, who worked on the 2014 Farm Bill.
This year, Link Snacks has spent $25,000 on lobbying the federal government to support “protein snacks in SNAP program” as well as issues with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, according to lobbying disclosure documents.
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