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A look at how tariffs, deportations and more of Trump’s proposals could affect housing costs 

House for sale

A ‘For Sale’ sign is seen on March 19 in Austin, Texas. Policymakers are watching for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Americans hand over a huge chunk of their paycheck for a roof over their heads. Policymakers are looking out for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Housing accounted for 32.9% of consumers’ spending in 2023, making it the largest share of consumer expenditures, according to the most recently available data Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that was an increase of 5.7% from 2022.

This year, many Americans still struggle to find affordable housing, whether they choose to rent or buy a home.

There’s a lot economists and housing advocates still don’t know about what to expect from a second Trump term. It’s unclear which campaign promises will find their way into administrative rules or  legislation, even with a Republican trifecta – the GOP will control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

But policy experts, researchers and economic analysts are looking at Trump’s record, his recent remarks on housing, and  Project 2025 – the conservative Heritage Foundation’s 900-page plan to overhaul the executive branch – for a glimpse of what may lie ahead.

Tariffs and the cost of building homes

Trump has spoken frequently of his proposed 60% tariff on goods from China, which he has said would create more manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Tariffs could be as high as 20% on goods from other countries.

But housing economists and other experts say that could be bad news for building more affordable housing.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company, said tariffs are one of her main concerns about the effects of a second Trump term.

“One of the biggest concerns is not just lumber [costs], but the overall cost of materials, which have been going up,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company.

Construction material prices have risen 38.8% since February 2020, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors’ analysis of October Producer Price Index data.

Kurt Paulsen, professor of urban planning in the department of planning and landscape architecture at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, said building costs are already high from tariffs on Canadian lumber that Trump first imposed and that the Biden administration kept and increased.

“It used to be in construction that you would get a bid from a contractor or a subcontractor or supplier and it would be good for 60 days. Now, the bids are good for like five days because you don’t know where prices are going to be,” he said.

Immigration policy and its effect on construction labor

Trump tweeted on Nov. 18 that he is planning to use the declaration of a national emergency as part of his mass  deportation plan.

Besides disrupting lives, Trump’s plan  could have effects on what it costs to build housing, Hepp said.

“There is the cost of labor as well, if we do indeed have all these deportations. That’s a big, big concern,” she said. “A large share of labor in the construction industry obviously comes from immigrants. That is a huge issue for new construction and particularly new construction as it relates to affordable housing.”

Foreign-born construction workers made up 3 million of the 11.9 million people who work in the construction industry in 2023, according to the latest American Community Survey data.

Trump’s ‘not in my backyard’  rhetoric

The former president hasn’t always been clear on where he stands with zoning regulations and making way for more affordable housing in a wide variety of neighborhoods.

In a July Bloomberg interview, Trump spoke critically of zoning regulations and said that they drive up housing costs. But Trump also has a record of tending toward a “not in my backyard,” or NIMBY, approach to housing that maintained some of these zoning regulations. The Trump administration moved to roll back an Obama-era regulation that tied HUD funding to assessing and reducing housing discrimination in neighborhoods.

“He’ll talk about reducing regulations on developers, but he’ll also use this NIMBYism talking about protecting suburbs from low-income housing and you really can’t have it both ways,” said Sarah Saadian, senior vice president of public policy and field organizing at the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Paulsen said Project 2025 embraces a pushback against anti-NIMBY approaches to expand multi-family housing.

“What I read in the Project 2025 documents is a clear statement that says every local community and neighborhood should be able to choose the housing it wants to accept or not. The challenge of that is that if every community in every neighborhood can veto housing, then we just don’t get enough housing and prices go up and prices and rents go up,” he said.

A more punitive approach to homelessness 

Last year, homelessness rose to its highest level recorded since the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development began collecting this information in 2007. The ending of pandemic safety nets that gave some households better financial stability and a lack of affordable housing supply contributed to the number of unhoused people, the report explained.

Trump has been outspoken on his view that homeless people should be “off our streets.” The president-elect has also proposed putting unhoused people with mental health issues into “mental institutions.”

“There’s a movement that I think is largely reflected in Project 2025 that says, actually, cities need more coercive policy tools to enforce public order and to require that someone who’s camping take a shelter placement even if they don’t want it,” Paulsen said.

Saadian said that given the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Grants Pass v. Johnson, which makes it easier to criminalize unhoused populations for sleeping outside, she’s worried about a changing political environment where policies that prioritize stable housing over policing fall out of favor.

“I think all of that just shows a culture shift in the political dynamic here that we’re definitely worried about,” she said.

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How will Republicans handle 7 key issues with their trifecta control of Washington?

South Dakota Sen. John Thune speaks to reporters after being elected Republican leader during a closed-door, secret ballot election held inside the old Senate chamber in the U.S. Capitol building on Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. At right is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican elected as the Republican Policy Committee chair. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom) 

WASHINGTON — Republicans in the Nov. 5 election took over the White House, the U.S. Senate and as of late Wednesday, the House, after calls were made in enough races to project a majority.

They are expressing high hopes for unified control of government. But before they’ll be able to celebrate enacting sweeping changes to the country’s tax code or overhauling the health insurance marketplace, they’ll need to broker agreement between centrist lawmakers and far-right members in Congress.

More often than not, those two factions of the GOP hold significantly different ideas about how to draft legislation and strong opinions about whether to amend it on the floor.

Keeping everyone on the same page will be crucial for Republican leaders once the new Congress begins Jan. 3, especially since they have just three votes to spare in the Senate and a razor-thin majority in the House.

States Newsroom looked at what’s ahead for Republicans as they begin sorting through where to make changes to U.S. law in seven key policy areas:

TAXES

Nearly every Republican politician campaigned on addressing the country’s tax structure, making it one of the first issues the party is expected to take up when the next session of Congress begins.

The GOP will likely use the complicated budget reconciliation process to address the tax code, the same way lawmakers did in 2017 when they passed their signature tax law during President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office.

That reconciliation process would allow Republicans to avoid the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster that would otherwise require them to get Democratic support. But the process has strict rules and requires a marathon amendment voting session in the Senate that’s often called a vote-a-rama.

Some provisions in Republicans’ original tax law have already expired or will do so in the coming months, giving the GOP incentives to jump through the many hoops that come with the reconciliation process.

Extending the expiring provisions will bring along a hefty price tag, however.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote in an analysis released in late September that extending the individual and estate tax elements in the law would increase the deficit by $3.9 trillion through 2035. Republicans opting to extend or bring back tax code changes for business would likely increase the deficit to $4.8 trillion.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, expressed concerns at the time about lawmakers ignoring or diminishing the deficit impact. 

“There will undoubtedly be efforts to pretend that extending the tax cuts is free – obviously this is not the case,” she said. “Extending policies that are scheduled to expire — and were scored as expiring — would clearly add to the national debt.”

MacGuineas added that lawmakers “should consider carefully which parts of the TCJA are working, which parts aren’t, and if they want to extend some parts, how to responsibly extend them without increasing the debt beyond current law.”

IMMIGRATION

Republicans are expected to hold votes on legislation addressing border security and immigration after much of their campaign for Congress focused on those two areas.

Whether they’ll be able to do that through the reconciliation process with only GOP support or through the traditional legislative process, which requires bipartisanship in the Senate, will depend on how exactly they write the bill and what budget impacts the various provisions will have.

Immigration and border security legislation would fail to comply with a reconciliation rule in the Senate, also known as the Byrd Rule, if it produces a change in federal revenues or spending that is deemed “merely incidental” by the Senate parliamentarian.

While the requirement is vague, it could apply to several items that don’t have big price tags when considered as part of the multi-trillion-dollar federal budget.

For example, Democrats’ efforts to raise the federal minimum wage as part of the reconciliation process in 2021 were deemed “merely incidental” by the Senate parliamentarian and removed from the bill.

Trump has already laid out his wish list for an immigration-related bill he wants Congress to send to his desk.

Trump reposted campaign videos on social media in early September requesting Congress pass legislation to prevent future presidents from using executive authority to grant humanitarian parole — something the Biden administration has used to allow more than 1 million people to obtain work permits and live in the United States temporarily. 

Trump has called the use of parole authority “abuse,” but it’s been used by presidents since 1956, during the Eisenhower administration.

Trump, who campaigned on mass deportations of immigrants without proper legal status, is also expected to ask Congress to foot the bill for his promise to deport more than 13 million people.

Getting any immigration-related policy to the president-elect’s desk will be daunting since it’s been almost four decades since Congress overhauled U.S. immigration law.

“The last big immigration bill was passed in 1986 when Ronald Reagan was president and both houses of Congress were held by Democrats,” according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Brookings Institution. “A smaller bill was passed in 1990 when George H.W. Bush was president and both houses of Congress were still controlled by Democrats.”

Earlier this year, a bipartisan border security and immigration bill was brokered by Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford and Arizona independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

The trio of senators spent months negotiating the particulars of the deal only to have it scuttled after Trump told GOP members he didn’t want the legislation to pass.

That legislation could be used as a starting point if Republicans are unable to move an immigration bill through the reconciliation process and want to get a bill past the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster.

TARIFFS

Tariffs could become one point of contention between Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration.

The president-elect has vowed to stack tariffs of at least 10% on nearly all goods entering the country, raising alarm bells with economists and free-trade Republicans about the impact that would have on consumer prices.

Trump said in mid-October at the Economic Club of Chicago that he hoped to implement tariffs on foreign-made products as high as 100% or 200%.

“The higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States, and build a factory in the United States so it doesn’t have to pay the tariff,” Trump said, rejecting the premise that high tariffs could harm Americans.

Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told States Newsroom in an October interview that imposing tariffs could risk “starting a trade war with the entire world.”

Lovely’s research with economist Kimberly Clausing, also of PIIE, found that Trump’s threats to slap tariffs as high as 20% on all foreign products, combined with his threats of 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, could cost the typical American household over $2,600 annually.

HEALTH CARE

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said repeatedly during the final weeks of the campaign that he wants to overhaul the 2010 health care law that most people refer to as the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare.

He hasn’t shared details about what aspects of that law he wants to end or change, but said during a late October interview on Fox Business that he wants to address health outcomes.

“I said the ACA, unfortunately, is deeply ingrained in our health care system now,” Johnson said. “Do we need further improvements? Absolutely. We need to expand quality of care, access to care and obviously lower the cost of health care.”

Republicans used the budget reconciliation process to try to repeal and replace the ACA in 2017, but were unsuccessful, largely due to the late Arizona Sen. John McCain rejecting the bill.

Even with the budget reconciliation process to get Republicans around the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster, it will be extremely difficult for leaders to get the party unified on any health care bill of that magnitude.

Republicans using the budget reconciliation process for tax policy and health care would take up two of the three opportunities they’ll have to adopt budget resolutions with reconciliation instructions during the 119th Congress.

GOP leaders could try for a round three, though once all is said and done with the first two reconciliation bills, Republicans might need to shift their attention toward the 2026 midterm campaigns.

VOTING

Republican lawmakers have argued legislation is needed to bar noncitizens from voting in federal elections, even though it is already illegal and rarely happens. The party is expected to try again next Congress, once it holds a majority in both chambers of Congress. 

The GOP House passed a bill this summer that would have required proof of citizenship to register to vote, but the Democratic-controlled Senate never acted on it.

Trump wrote on social media that he would demand that voter ID laws and proof of citizenship be required for voting, something that Congress would have to pass, although it’s unclear if such legislation could overcome the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

The issue is important to Trump, as Johnson traveled to the president-elect’s residence in Palm Beach, Florida, to unveil the House’s intention to pursue the issue.

SPENDING

Republicans campaigned this year on cutting government spending, but have rarely done so when they held the majority in both chambers of Congress.

The challenge lies in how government spending is approved and how much the various departments and agencies require to function.

During fiscal 2023, the federal government spent $6.1 trillion, with $3.4 trillion going to mandatory programs, like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Those programs run on autopilot, so lawmakers don’t need to negotiate the particulars every year the way they do other programs.

An additional $1.7 trillion was spent on so-called discretionary programs, which are funded through Congress’ annual appropriations process. That funding went to programs categorized as either nondefense, which received $917 billion, or defense, which got $805 billion.

The nondefense funding goes to several departments, including Agriculture, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Interior, Justice, State and Transportation. Smaller agencies, like NASA and the National Science Foundation, are also funded through nondefense accounts.

Republicans have proposed cuts in the past, but members of the party who understand the federal ledger often explain that if members really want to address the government spending more than it takes in, they’ll have to address Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

The math, otherwise, won’t work.

Republicans could make tweaks when they write their reconciliation bills, though they’ll need those to comply with the Byrd Rule and not have a “merely incidental” impact on the federal ledger. 

EDUCATION

Having secured unified GOP control of government, Trump’s sweeping vision to “save American education” could set the stage for significant changes in U.S. education policy.

The president-elect has vowed to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education and said he wants to move education “back to the states.” States and local governments bear much of the responsibility for funding K-12 schools, but the Department of Education handles Pell Grants for college students who demonstrate financial need and enforces civil rights cases, among other things.

Congress going along with plans to eliminate the department could have profound impacts on the billions of dollars in funding the agency provides for low-income K-12 schools, special education and federal student aid.

Trump also vowed to roll back updated Title IX regulations on his first day back in office.

President Joe Biden unveiled the final rule for Title IX in April, which strengthens federal protections for LGBTQ+ students and “protects against discrimination based on sex stereotypes, sexual orientation, gender identity, and sex characteristics,” according to the Education Department.

GOP members on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce have criticized the new Title IX rules and are likely to fall in step with Trump’s wishes to roll back the regulations.

Trump has also criticized the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness efforts, dubbing them “not even legal.” He could discontinue the Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan known as Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE. The plan is currently on pause due to legal challenges from Republican-led states.

Last year, Senate Republicans tried to strike down the rule.

Like Trump, Republicans have focused on “parental rights” in education. House Republicans passed their own bill on the issue last year.

Republicans are likely to continue scrutinizing higher education institutions from diversity initiatives to college students protesting the war in Gaza.

GOP measure that would bar accrediting organizations from requiring colleges and universities to adopt diversity, equity and inclusion policies as a condition of accreditation passed the House in September.

Shauneen Miranda and Ashley Murray contributed to this report.  

Life on the line: Watching the election unfold as an undocumented American

Day three of the nine day march to Wisconsin's capital, demanding immigration reform from the federal government. (Photo | Joe Brusky)

A scene from the nine-day march to the Wisconsin State Capitol in 2022. Marchers, organized by Voces de la Frontera, demanded immigration reform from the federal government. (Photo | Joe Brusky)

As an undocumented American I have been holding my breath throughout this campaign season. I am fortunate to have Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) status, but like millions of other immigrants, I’m not just worrying about health care reforms or economic policies. We are fighting for our lives, our loved ones, and the dream of one day belonging to the only place millions of us call home. This election feels like a perilous moment in time where everything is hanging in the balance. 

Each campaign rally, debate, and potential policy change announcement feels personal. Each candidate’s words either threaten or bring solace. 

There is a blend of excitement and fear but overall dread. The deep lingering fear of deportation on the horizon and the impact of living in constant uncertainty, but on the other hand there’s a spark of possibility that finally one of these candidates will do right by us. That maybe, just maybe a pathway to citizenship is within reach. Every time that hope grows, it is shadowed by the possibility that things might never change or worse, regress.

We can’t take a day off from  the dreadful reality of living day-to-day as an undocumented person in a country that has increasingly polarized views on immigration regardless of who’s in office. Many of us have been here for years, working hard, contributing to Medicaid and Social Security funding with no security for ourselves. Yet in some corners of this nation we are still viewed as outsiders. We live in constant fear of our families being separated, and the grumbling feeling that we are somehow “illegal” and as if our existence is a crime.  We hope to finally be seen  as human.

The heaviest burden is waiting for the next administration to change everything for us, not knowing if whoever is in office  will truly follow through for better or worse. There’s a part of us that wonders if we’ll ever be able to celebrate a concrete win. And so we wait, quietly and carefully, trying to believe that hope will be justified. 

Watching from the sidelines, we know that a path to citizenship would not only change our lives but would be an affirmation that we are finally a part of American history. And so we wait, with a knot in our throats, our future hanging on the outcome. Knowing that no matter what happens, we will keep fighting to belong in a place where we call home.

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Harris campaign stresses ‘the threat that Donald Trump is to Latino communities’

immigration protest

People demonstrate and call out words of encouragement to detainees held inside the Metropolitan Detention Center after marching to decry Trump administration immigration and refugee policies on June 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON —Top advisers to the Kamala Harris presidential campaign held a Wednesday press conference including children who were separated from their parents under the highly criticized Trump administration immigration policy, as a warning of what a second term under the former president could bring for the Latino community.

The press conference in Doral, Florida, came ahead of a late Wednesday Univision town hall at which GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump will talk with undecided Latino voters.

Four children at the press conference recounted stories of being separated from a parent by immigration officials during the Trump administration and the lasting trauma it caused. Their full names and ages were not provided by the campaign.

With 20 days until Nov. 5 and early voting underway in many states, both campaigns have tried to court Latino voters, as they are the second-largest group of eligible voters.

“The Latino vote will decide this election,” Democratic Texas U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, who serves as co-chair for the Harris campaign, said at the press conference.

Harris campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said that for the next 20 days, Democrats will continue to reach out to Latinos and stress “the threat that Donald Trump is to Latino communities everywhere.”

Harris looks for Latino support

The 2024 presidential election is essentially a dead heat between Harris and Trump. Latino voter preferences largely resemble the 2020 presidential election, when President Joe Biden defeated Trump 61% to 36% in earning the Latino vote, according to the Pew Research Center. 

Harris, the Democratic nominee, currently has a smaller lead over Trump with Latinos, 57% to 39%, according to the Pew Research Center.

Escobar warned what a second Trump administration could bring to the Latino community.

“I hear a lot of Latinos who say that they want to vote for Donald Trump, that they appreciate some of his policies,” she said.

Escobar said that Trump has not only promised to carry out mass deportations, but go after pathways to legal immigration. She argued that architects of some of the former president’s harshest immigration policies are top level advisers, like Stephen Miller, who has proposed eliminating legal immigration like humanitarian parole programs and Temporary Protected Status.

Miller has also proposed a program to strip naturalized citizens of their U.S. citizenship — an initiative that Miller said would be “turbocharged” under a second Trump administration.

“For Latinos who think that when Donald Trump insults immigrants, or when he talks about mass deportation that you’re thinking he’s talking about somebody else, oh no, no, he’s talking about you,” Escobar, who represents the border town of El Paso, said.

Escobar said there would be no guardrails for a second Trump administration and programs like family separation could be implemented. The separation occurred at the border as asylum-seeking parents were put into criminal detention and sometimes deported.

“These kids who have lived through horrific trauma, through the pain of being separated from their parents, what you heard from them moments ago will be far worse if Trump gets a second term,” she said. “In Donald Trump’s first term, he had people around him who actually tried to stop him. In a second term, not only will those guardrails not exist, but those people who were there to stop him in the first place are long gone.”

Trump has declined to say whether he would resume family separations if given a second term, also known as the zero-tolerance policy.

“Well, when you have that policy, people don’t come. If a family hears that they’re going to be separated, they love their family. They don’t come. So I know it sounds harsh,” Trump said during a CNN town hall in May 2023. 

Escobar said that she is hoping that at Wednesday night’s town hall, Trump will be pressed on whether he would reimplement his family separation policy.

The Biden administration established a task force to reunite the 3,881 children who were separated from their families from 2017 to 2021.

The Department of Homeland Security has reunited about 74% of those families, but there are still 998 children who have not been reunited.

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