Boeing workers gather on a picket line near the entrance to a Boeing facility on Oct. 24 in Seattle. The strike ended with a deal in November. Those workers returning to the job factored into growth reported in the latest labor report. (Photo by David Ryder/Getty Images)

The economy added 227,000 jobs in November, making for a strong jobs report despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Although the labor market has cooled this year, the Trump administration stands to inherit a fairly healthy labor market, with decent job growth across many sectors.

The number of jobs was bolstered by the return of striking workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing rose by 32,000 jobs. Boeing machinists who went on strike in September seeking higher pay and better retirement benefits reached a deal in November.

The agency also revised up the number of jobs added in the October and September reports by 56,000 jobs combined.

Although the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%, the economy is looking strong, particularly when you look at gross domestic product, said Louise Sheiner, with the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.

“It’s been remarkably strong. If you look at what the Congressional Budget Office projected the level of real GDP before the pandemic, it’s higher now. We’ve just had a really strong economy,” said Sheiner, who focuses on fiscal policy.

Although she said the labor market has been slowing a little, it’s still healthy.

Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said the three-month average of job growth at 173,000 jobs shows a fairly strong labor market.

Employment in health care and government, including state government employment, continued to add jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 53,000 jobs and food services and drinking places added 29,000 jobs.

Gould said she is keeping an eye on the employment-to-population ratio, a measure of workers employed versus the working-age population. The measure is down 0.6 percentage point over the year.

“Let’s pay attention to that and see where that goes,” she said. “We were at a pretty nice high this summer that has come down a bit.”

Economists will also keep an eye on demographic data changes in the next jobs report. The unemployment rate for Black men jumped from 5.7% to 6% and the unemployment rate for Black women increased from 4.9% to 6%. Economists and policy experts said that although they will be watching these numbers, they don’t think the higher unemployment rate for Black people will necessarily continue. The month-to-month data can be volatile and may not point to a broader trend, they said.

“The Black unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% which is the highest since March and then looking at Black women, we saw their unemployment rate jumped to 6% which is the highest that we’ve seen in 2.5 years,” said Clara Wilson, senior policy analyst at the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-of-center economic think tank. “However, the spike in Black unemployment is something to always keep a track of because if we continue to see a rise in Black unemployment that typically is a warning signal canary in the coal mine that there could be further weakening in the labor market down the line.”

Retail jobs fell by 28,000, with a loss of 15,000 in general merchandise and 4,000 in electronics and appliance retailers.

“I’m not particularly concerned about it because it can be due to the fact that it was just a late Thanksgiving this year, so that holiday hiring may not have happened during the reference period in the same way,” Gould said.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, the same as October, and 4% over the past year. Although some economists say the Federal Reserve would like to see wages come down to help it meet its 2% target for inflation, Wilson said higher wages are an indication that workers are benefiting from the current economy. She said she’s worried that the Trump administration will undo some of the economic progress she said has been made from the Biden administration’s major legislation.

“It’s really important to remember that real people are behind the data and the strong labor market propels more opportunities for workers and ensures families have higher wages and that leads to a stronger economy. Policymakers should take those lessons that we’ve learned from those strong public investments and sustain that progress,” Wilson said.

Sale prices are displayed for items at a grocery store in San Rafael, California, on Sept. 10, 2024. Grocery prices are just one piece of the U.S. economy, which is key to many voters in their pick for president. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

The economy is key to many voters in their pick for president, but that fervor also makes  it an attractive subject for distortions, misinformation, and oversimplification.

Nearly eight  in 10 U.S. voters say that the economy is one of the most important issues to them in this upcoming presidential election, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted in September. Although 66% of voters say the economy is very or somewhat poor, six in 10 also say their personal finances are good.

Millions have already cast their ballots through early or mail voting. But those who are still deciding between the two main candidates – Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump – have until Nov. 5 to wade through various myths and exaggerations to understand the state of the economy and each candidate’s record on related issues.

What is the state of inflation in the U.S.? 

The most recent cycle of inflation reached its peak in June 2022 at 9.1%. Inflation has fallen considerably since then and to a more manageable 2.4% in September’s Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation. Wage growth, meanwhile, has beaten inflation for more than a year. The Federal Reserve cut its key interest  rate by half of a percentage point for the first time in four years in September after inflation neared  toward its goal of 2%.

But those macro figures don’t hit home with everyone, because of the prices of groceries and other essentials.

The literal prices that people see on goods make them think that they’re not doing as well because they feel that they are higher than they think they should be,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute But, those prices are actually lower as a share of their wages than they were four years ago.”

This doesn’t mean that many voters’ experiences of struggling to afford basic items aren’t real. The cost of housing is very high and puts a strain on people’s budgets. The Fed’s interest rate policy affected credit card rates, and thus, people’s ability to make purchases.

Gould said that despite the positive news of slowing inflation, the lack of long-term wage growth before this recent increase has been hard on many Americans.

“Even though things are good, we know that for the vast majority of people over the last several decades, they’ve been faced with relatively slow wage growth and so it can be hard to feel like you’re going to get ahead,” she said.

Was unemployment higher under Biden or Trump? 

The unemployment rate under Donald Trump was fairly low, at 4.7%, when he took office in 2017 , and it mostly trended lower until the beginning of the pandemic. It then shot up to 14.8% in April 2020 and fell sharply for the rest of Trump’s term, which ended in January 2021. The unemployment rate was 6.7% during Trump’s last full month in office.

The labor market has been fairly hot under President Joe Biden. The unemployment rate was 6.4% during the month he and Harris were sworn into office. But since then, it largely fell, and from February 2022 to April 2024, the unemployment rate was below 4%. In September, the unemployment rate was 4.1% but the economy continues to show strong job growth.

Looking at the Biden-Harris administration’s record and Trump’s record outside of the immediate economic impact of the recession and supply shocks during their presidencies, unemployment remained fairly low. Overall, unemployment averaged 3.8% since 2022 and averaged 4% between 2017 and 2019, before the pandemic hit the economy in 2020.

Labor force participation rates and the employment-to-population ratio, measures of the number of people in the labor force and workers employed versus the working age population, were high in the last jobs report and show signs of a healthy labor market.

Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a left-leaning group focusing on economic policies, said that it’s also important to understand the percentage of the population adjusting for age, the prime age employment rate. It is marginally higher now, by about 0.3%, than it was right before Covid struck, during the Trump administration, he said.

“We’ve seen generally slower paces of employment gains more recently and that might be just because a lot of people are now back in the labor force itself. It’s probably a little harder to grow employment quickly when you’re coming from a high level as opposed to a low level,” Amarnath said. “Nevertheless, we’re at an employment rate where there’s been a reasonably strong labor demand, a little bit combined with the fact that people are also moving out into their retirement years.”

The American Rescue Plan Act, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and bipartisan infrastructure deal, enacted during Biden’s presidency, helped fuel the recovery, Amarnath said. The CARES Act, which was signed into law byTrump, likely helped the U.S. avoid a protracted recession, he added.

What would Trump’s proposed  tariffs do to the U.S. economy

In an interview with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News at the Economic Club of Chicago on Oct. 15, former president Trump said tariffs would be good for economic growth.

“We’re going to bring companies back to our country … We’re going to protect those companies with strong tariffs because I’m a believer in tariffs,” he said.

The Trump campaign has also proposed a 60% tariff on goods from China, one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners, and 10-to-20% on other imports. The Tax Foundation, a business-friendly research think tank, estimated that if Trump’s proposed tariffs were to be implemented, it would reduce GDP by at least 0.8% and eliminate 684,000 jobs.

Tariffs would likely result in lower trade and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, raising prices, and costing each household between $1,900 to $7,600 in 2023 in dollars, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, a nonpartisan policy research center.

“If the tariff wars back in President Trump’s first term are any indication, they’re going to respond with their own tariffs and other trade actions,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Broadly, tariffs are going to raise prices for imported goods, weaken consumer purchasing power and slow growth.”

Zandi added that although the retail sector would be particularly hard hit by these tariffs, he doesn’t think any industry would come away unscathed by the policy.

How do Harris and Trump’s economic plans compare? 

Harris has said her plans, which include building more affordable housing supply, restoring and expanding the child tax credit, and supporting legislation to expand labor rights, have been approved by respected economists and sources of financial research.

“Please do check out the Wall Street Journal or Goldman Sachs or the 16 Nobel laureates or Moody’s, who have all analyzed the plans and said mine will strengthen the economy, his will make it weaker,” Harris said.

The reality is a little more complicated. Some of the reports Harris referred to do not say the economy would weaken under Trump but would grow less than the economy under Harris in certain scenarios, depending on the political breakdown in Congress.

Others show the GDP falling more as a result of Harris’ proposals. The Penn Wharton Budget Model looking at Trump and Harris proposals shows the GDP falling 0.4% under Trump by 2034 and declining 1.3% under Harris over the same period, but notably, it does not factor in proposals not to tax tips, mentioned by both candidates, or Trump’s tariff policies.

Before Biden withdrew his candidacy, 16 Nobel-prize winning economists said Biden’s investments in the economy through signing legislation to improve infrastructure and manufacturing would boost economic growth. They spoke out against Trump’s tariff plans. Although Harris is part of the Biden administration, they did not address her specific plans as a candidate. On Wednesday, 23 Nobel-prize winning economists, including the economist who led the last letter, Joseph Stiglitz, endorsed Harris’ specific policies.

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Home mortgage rates are posted outside a real estate office in Los Angeles after the Federal Reserve interest rates announcement on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a half-point cut to its benchmark interest rate in the first rate cut since the early days of the COVID pandemic.

The Federal Reserve’s first key interest rate cut in four years coincides with another major four-year event: the homestretch of the presidential election.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the central bank’s role in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Wednesday, in announcing the half-percentage point cut in its benchmark rate. But that didn’t stop the candidates’ campaigns from weighing in, and it could prove a key factor for voters.

“This is my fourth presidential election at the Fed, and it’s always the same. We’re always going to this meeting in particular and asking what’s the right thing to do for the people we serve,” Powell said. “Nothing else is ever discussed.”

The decision to cut for the first time during the Biden Administration indicates the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors believe the economy has beaten the COVID-19 pandemic-induced wave of inflation that has plagued it since mid-2021. The Fed hiked its key rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose 2.5% over the past year, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in August, down from 4.3% in July, but still much higher than 3.5% in July 2023 when the Fed made its last rate hike.

“We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks of both sides of our dual mandate,” Powell said.

Wednesday’s was the first in what is expected to be a series of key rate cuts. For now, that benchmark rate is 4.75 to 5%

One member of the Fed’s governing board, Michelle Bowman, dissented with the rest of the group, marking the first time a governor has done so since 2005. Bowman preferred a 25 basis point – or quarter percentage point – cut.

Timing of the rate cut

Both campaigns quickly reacted to the news from the Fed.

Trump, speaking at a crypto-themed bar in New York, said the cut should have been smaller.

“I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they’re not just playing politics,” the Republican nominee said. “The economy would be very bad or they’re playing politics, one or the other. But it was a big cut.”

Harris, in a prepared statement, was forward-looking.

“While this announcement is welcome news for Americans who have borne the brunt of high prices, my focus is on the work ahead to keep bringing prices down,” the Democratic nominee said. “I know prices are still too high for many middle class and working families.”

Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution and author of, “The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve,” said there is a long history of presidents pressuring the Fed, from John F. Kennedy to Richard Nixon and Trump, as a president and now as a presidential candidate.

In order to be effective in its role in keeping the economy moving, Binder said, the Fed needs to be trusted as legitimate, and its political support is contingent on doing a good job.

“The Fed doesn’t have the liberty of sitting it out or not doing enough, which can also bring the Fed into politicians’ crosshairs where they really, really don’t want to be,” she said.

Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a research group that advocates for full employment, said the Fed should be examining the economic data.

“That’s what they should look at, not where they are in the electoral seasonal cycle,” she said. “I think that’s the case, by and large. I don’t see anything that’s just a real politicization here.”

What a Fed rate cut means for the economy

Many economists and economic advisers have argued for the Fed to cut rates for months to avoid significant damage to the labor market and in the worst case, a recession.

Now, consumers should begin to see lower costs for borrowing money to buy houses, cars and other necessities.

Kitty Richards, senior strategic adviser at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank based in Washington, D.C., said the Fed should not hold back on cutting rates now that inflation is slowing.

“The Fed pursued four back to back 70-basis-point rate hikes when inflation was heating up. There’s no reason they should allow inertia to hold them back from normalizing rates now that inflation is under control,” she said.

Because shelter makes up so much of inflation, Richards has expressed concern that by keeping rates where they are, mortgage rates have been pushed so high that the housing market is unaffordable for many Americans. This, in turn, affects inflation, she said, creating a vicious cycle.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a progressive economic policy think tank, stated that the Fed decision is a good sign for the housing market.

“It is good that the Fed has now recognized the weakening of the labor market and responded with an aggressive cut. Given there is almost no risk of rekindling inflation, the greater boost to the labor market is largely costless,” Baker said in a statement. “Also, it will help to spur the housing market where millions of people have put off selling homes because of high mortgage rates.”

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