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US adds 227,000 jobs in what analysts say is a healthy economy

8 December 2024 at 21:38
Boeing workers

Boeing workers gather on a picket line near the entrance to a Boeing facility on Oct. 24 in Seattle. The strike ended with a deal in November. Those workers returning to the job factored into growth reported in the latest labor report. (Photo by David Ryder/Getty Images)

The economy added 227,000 jobs in November, making for a strong jobs report despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Although the labor market has cooled this year, the Trump administration stands to inherit a fairly healthy labor market, with decent job growth across many sectors.

The number of jobs was bolstered by the return of striking workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing rose by 32,000 jobs. Boeing machinists who went on strike in September seeking higher pay and better retirement benefits reached a deal in November.

The agency also revised up the number of jobs added in the October and September reports by 56,000 jobs combined.

Although the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%, the economy is looking strong, particularly when you look at gross domestic product, said Louise Sheiner, with the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.

“It’s been remarkably strong. If you look at what the Congressional Budget Office projected the level of real GDP before the pandemic, it’s higher now. We’ve just had a really strong economy,” said Sheiner, who focuses on fiscal policy.

Although she said the labor market has been slowing a little, it’s still healthy.

Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said the three-month average of job growth at 173,000 jobs shows a fairly strong labor market.

Employment in health care and government, including state government employment, continued to add jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 53,000 jobs and food services and drinking places added 29,000 jobs.

Gould said she is keeping an eye on the employment-to-population ratio, a measure of workers employed versus the working-age population. The measure is down 0.6 percentage point over the year.

“Let’s pay attention to that and see where that goes,” she said. “We were at a pretty nice high this summer that has come down a bit.”

Economists will also keep an eye on demographic data changes in the next jobs report. The unemployment rate for Black men jumped from 5.7% to 6% and the unemployment rate for Black women increased from 4.9% to 6%. Economists and policy experts said that although they will be watching these numbers, they don’t think the higher unemployment rate for Black people will necessarily continue. The month-to-month data can be volatile and may not point to a broader trend, they said.

“The Black unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% which is the highest since March and then looking at Black women, we saw their unemployment rate jumped to 6% which is the highest that we’ve seen in 2.5 years,” said Clara Wilson, senior policy analyst at the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-of-center economic think tank. “However, the spike in Black unemployment is something to always keep a track of because if we continue to see a rise in Black unemployment that typically is a warning signal canary in the coal mine that there could be further weakening in the labor market down the line.”

Retail jobs fell by 28,000, with a loss of 15,000 in general merchandise and 4,000 in electronics and appliance retailers.

“I’m not particularly concerned about it because it can be due to the fact that it was just a late Thanksgiving this year, so that holiday hiring may not have happened during the reference period in the same way,” Gould said.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, the same as October, and 4% over the past year. Although some economists say the Federal Reserve would like to see wages come down to help it meet its 2% target for inflation, Wilson said higher wages are an indication that workers are benefiting from the current economy. She said she’s worried that the Trump administration will undo some of the economic progress she said has been made from the Biden administration’s major legislation.

“It’s really important to remember that real people are behind the data and the strong labor market propels more opportunities for workers and ensures families have higher wages and that leads to a stronger economy. Policymakers should take those lessons that we’ve learned from those strong public investments and sustain that progress,” Wilson said.

Wisconsin employment, jobs numbers stayed strong in September, state reports

By: Erik Gunn
17 October 2024 at 20:36
help wanted sign

Wisconsin unemployment remains low and the number of jobs in the state is near a record high, according to the state labor department. (Spencer Platt | Getty Images)

Unemployment in Wisconsin remained at a record-low rate in September while the number of jobs was still close to a record high, the state labor department reported Thursday.

The projected number of Wisconsinites employed in September topped 3,059,700 — a state record, according to the state Department of Workforce Development (DWD). The department reported that September was the fifth month in a row that the state employment number reached a new record high.

The unemployment rate for the month remained at 2.9%, according to DWD. Employment numbers are projections drawn from a federal survey of households.

Based on that survey, DWD projected the number of unemployed people in September was about 90,100.

Dennis Winters, Department of Workforce Development
Dennis Winters, Department of Workforce Development chief economist (DWD photo)

“It’s been tracking around historic lows for quite some time, and we don’t see that, short of a major recession, to increase any time soon,” said Dennis Winters, DWD’s chief economist, at a media briefing Thursday on the September jobs report. “And we don’t have any visions of a recession on the horizon anywhere at this point.”

From a separate federal survey of employers, the projected number of jobs in Wisconsin was off slightly in September compared to August, but still a robust 3.04 million — nearly 31,000 more jobs than in September 2023.

Unemployment insurance claims also remained close to their lowest level, while ticking up slightly, Winters said. The slight increase corresponds to typical seasonal trends in the last part of the year, he added.

Unemployment claims are reported from DWD, which manages Wisconsin’s unemployment insurance system. They are distinct from the federal survey’s unemployment numbers.

The high state employment numbers, low unemployment numbers and low numbers of unemployment insurance claims all suggest that when workers do lose their jobs, they are able to find employment again quickly, so “for the most part you’re not going to be laid off for very long,” Winters said.

The statewide numbers released Thursday don’t include  local or regional data, which DWD publishes later in the month.

A September report produced by the Wisconsin Policy Forum found that while Wisconsin had a strong recovery from the brief 2020 recession sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, the results have been uneven and in more than half of Wisconsin counties, employment remains behind 2019.

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Unemployment ticks down, labor market remains strong, latest numbers show

4 October 2024 at 21:00
Now Hiring sign

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing a strong labor market with growing wages, a lower unemployment rate, and the addition of 254,000 jobs to the economy. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A month before voters cast their ballots, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing a strong labor market with growing wages, a lower unemployment rate, and the addition of 254,000 jobs to the economy.

Eighty-one percent of registered voters say the economy is key to their vote for president this fall, according to a September Pew Research report.

“We saw job creation beating expectations, unemployment rate ticking ever so slightly down, and we saw great wage growth which has continued to outpace inflation,” said Kitty Richards, senior strategic advisor at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive economic policy think tank. “We don’t have the new inflation numbers for last month, but wage growth is strong and has been outpacing inflation for about 16 months now and those are all really good things.”

The unemployment rate in September was 4.1% compared to 4.2% in August and 4.3% in July. A rising unemployment rate earlier in the year had caused some economists to worry that the Federal Reserve’s decision in the past few months not to cut the federal funds rate was beginning to hurt the labor market.  In September, the Fed decided to cut the rate by half a percentage point, allaying those worries.

The Fed began an aggressive campaign to beat inflation by raising rates in March 2022 and stopped in mid-2023 but the rate remains high and has affected the economy, particularly the housing market, economists say. Inflation has significantly cooled since its peak in June 2022.

“If today’s job report had said that the labor market was softening further, I think a lot of us would be more aggressively concerned about the risks posed to the labor market by high interest rates,” Richards said. “It’s great to see that those risks have not tipped over yet … But there are risks and we need to be really mindful of what it would mean if we started to see the unemployment rate picking up again.”

The report also showed continued job growth in healthcare, government, social assistance and construction last month. Wage growth was strong, rising 4% over the past year.  Adult men saw their unemployment rate fall, at 3.7%, last month. Women, Black people, Asian people, white people, Hispanic people, and teens all had little or no change in their unemployment rates in September.

The prime-age employment-to-population ratio, which is a measure of how well the economy provides jobs for people who are interested in working, remains at a 23-year high in today’s jobs report.

“I think the labor market continues to be healthy and strong and it’s great to see labor force participation and employment-to-population rates staying high,” Richards said. “That’s what we want to see in the kind of economy that is going to drive wage gains for working people and continue some of the gains that we’ve seen since the COVID recession.”

But she added that there is still room for those measures to grow.

“We’ve seen that the economy can outperform what a lot of people thought before we had this really prolonged period of low unemployment coming out of the COVID recession. And I hope that we continue to see this kind of growth,” she said.

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