Reading Time: 3 minutes

Democrats flipped both of Wisconsin’s battleground congressional districts Tuesday, winning the long-Republican-held 1st District as well as the 3rd — part of a blue wave that flipped control of the U.S. House and Senate. 

As of midnight Tuesday, Democrats were on their way to winning a solid majority in the House and control of the Senate by flipping seats in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. Races in Alaska and Michigan were too close to call. House districts that Republicans had gerrymandered over the past year in Florida, North Carolina and Texas were proving to be “dummymanders.”

Democrats poured tens of millions of dollars into races across the country in an effort to flip Republican-held seats and regain control of both chambers of Congress. The party sought to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with the economy and President Donald Trump, whose approval rating has fallen to a historic low.

Eleanor Powell, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor, said Democratic control of Congress will create a new dynamic for the rest of Trump’s term. 

“We’re going to see a pretty different dynamic in the rest of President Trump’s term,” Powell said. “We’re also likely to see a fair bit more congressional oversight of what the executive branch has been doing.”

Wisconsin’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts were both among the targets of national Democrats seeking to flip Republican-held seats, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee including both races in its “Red to Blue” program. The program provides selected candidates with additional financial and campaign resources. 

Powell said the outcomes of the two races would help determine the size of the next congressional majority. She described the 1st Congressional District race as a “bellwether” for the size of a potential Democratic wave.

Democrat Mitchell Berman defeated four-term U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, flipping a seat that has been held by Republicans for more than three decades in southeast Wisconsin. He declared victory shortly before 11:30 p.m. Tuesday, with AP reporting 93% of the votes and Berman leading by 4.6 percentage points. 

The district emerged as an unexpected battleground and received national attention from Democrats trying to gain control of the U.S. House. Berman campaigned on his more than two decades of experience in health care and positioned himself as an outsider who could relate to working-class voters. 

Steil spent nearly $6.4 million in the race compared to Berman’s more than $1.6 million, according to October Federal Election Commission filings. Outside groups spent more than $17.9 million on the race, including about $6.1 million opposing Berman and about $6 million opposing Steil. Another $4 million supported Steil and nearly $1.7 million supported Berman.

In the 3rd Congressional District, Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeated U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden by about 6.5 percentage points in a rematch. Van Orden has faced multiple controversies and remained closely aligned with Trump throughout his campaign. 

The district was represented by moderate Democrat Ron Kind for more than two decades before Van Orden was elected in 2022. Cooke previously challenged Van Orden in 2024 and lost by 3 percentage points. Van Orden conceded around 10 p.m. when AP reported Cooke with an 8-point lead and about 70% of the vote in. 

Cooke spent more than $12.2 million in this election cycle, while Van Orden spent over $8.4 million, according to October FEC filings. Outside organizations poured more than $30.1 million into this race. Of that, about $13.6 million went toward opposing Van Orden and more than $11.2 million toward opposing Cooke. Another $2.7 million supported Cooke and $2.4 million supported Van Orden.

Other Wisconsin congressional results:

Congressional District 2

U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan ran unopposed in the general election. He has represented the Madison-area district since 2013 and will begin his eighth term in Congress in January. 

Congressional District 4

U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore won a 12th term in the Milwaukee-focused district, defeating independent Arthur Burks and Republican Tim Rogers. 

Congressional District 5

U.S. Rep. Scott Fitzgerald won reelection, defeating Democrat Andrew Beck. Fitzgerald will serve his third term in Congress.

Congressional District 6

U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman won reelection to a seventh term, defeating Democrat Brad Smith, Green Party candidate Matthew Arndt and independent candidates Mike Thurow and Elizabeth Anne Fitgibbon. 

Congressional District 7

Republican Michael Alfonso won Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Fred Clark. Alfonso, son-in-law of former 7th Congressional District representative and U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, will replace U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who lost his race for governor. 

Congressional District 8

Freshman U.S. Rep. Tony Wied won reelection in the northeastern district against Democrat Rick Crosson.

Democrats flip two Wisconsin battleground congressional districts as blue tsunami wipes out Republican majorities is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 6 minutes

When Mitchell Berman received an email from Elon Musk asking him to justify his job as a front-line emergency room nurse at the Department of Veterans Affairs, he began thinking more seriously about how he could make a difference beyond the hospital. 

The email came as the Department of Government Efficiency, commonly referred to as DOGE, began making cuts and hiring freezes in spring 2025. More than a year later, Berman is still working emergency room shifts, but is now campaigning as the Democratic challenger to four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.

“I kind of realized if we really wanted to help improve things for folks, not even just at the VA, but for people in our communities, it was going to take somebody from the ground floor standing up and fighting for it,” Berman said. 

The southeastern district is emerging as an unexpected battleground as Democrats look to capitalize on a shifting political environment and political newcomer Berman attempts to unseat Steil, who has represented the district since 2019. 

Recent polling from Democratic-aligned organizations shows a close race, leading to increased national attention and campaign spending. Democrats point to dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies and congressional Republicans’ continued support of them as reasons the traditionally Republican district could be more competitive, while Steil noted he has faced significant Democratic spending in the district before and has continued to win. 

“We’ve seen national Democrats spend millions of dollars in southeast Wisconsin before,” Steil said. “My strategy remains the same: Go speak directly to voters about the issues that are in front of us, and we have ultimately been successful in earning the support of the majority of voters four times in a row in the southern part of the state.”

About 38% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Trump’s job performance, according to a Sept. 30 Marquette Law School Poll.

An Oct. 3 poll conducted by Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC showed Berman leading Steil 48% to 47% among likely voters. The poll also found 56% of respondents viewed Trump unfavorably. A Sept. 29 poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) found the candidates tied at 48%. 

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analyst, recently shifted the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” 

In 2024, a Congressional Leadership Fund poll found Steil leading his challenger Peter Barca, a former member of Congress and Assembly minority leader, by 10 percentage points less than a month ahead of the general election, and Steil went on to win by that much. 

Recent election results, however, show differences in how voters in the district have supported presidential, congressional and Supreme Court candidates. Trump carried the district by 4.5 percentage points in 2024. But liberal Supreme Court candidates have won the district by at least 6 percentage points in elections since 2023. 

Democratic political strategist Joe Zepecki said the national political environment could make the district more competitive than it has been in previous elections. 

“When the political environment is as bad for either party as it is bad for Republicans right now, races that didn’t seem plausible a year ago suddenly get very real,” Zepecki said. 

Zepecki said Steil could have difficulty distancing himself from the administration as voters react to Trump’s actions. 

“The way that Trump’s choices and congressional Republicans’ refusal to do anything about it is really hamstringing candidates like Steil, who otherwise would be viewed as safer than he finds himself today,” Zepecki said. 

Republican political strategist Bill McCoshen, however, said Democrats appear to be “potentially overreacting” to what he said appears to be a favorable national environment for their party. He said he was surprised Democrats are targeting the district. 

“Will that national environment still be there in three or four weeks? We don’t know. So I guess as they’re trying to put more seats in play right now, and then they’ll narrow it down to the ones they think they have the best shot at in the final two weeks,” McCoshen said. 

Who has the advantage?

Steil in 2026 benefits from advantages in name recognition and financial resources compared to his opponent, McCoshen noted. 

A campaign finance report from Oct. 15 showed Steil with more than $4.2 million in his campaign chest, compared with about $338,000 for Berman. 

But Berman’s campaign has received additional support from national Democrats. In September, Berman was added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides selected Democratic candidates with additional fundraising and organizational support.

Barca was also added to the program during his 2024 campaign. He said the designation helped raise national money because people want to invest in candidates they believe can win. 

He said the political environment changed significantly since he ran. 

“The whole focus (in 2024) was putting Biden and Harris on the defensive and because even though things were improving, people didn’t really sense that big of an improvement,” Barca said. “And now though, I mean, it hasn’t been this bad since I think the recession of ’08. So as a consequence, I think it’s a completely different environment than it was.”

Outside groups have also started pouring money into the race, bringing more national attention to the district.

The House Majority PAC has a $2.7 million ad buy planned for this district, according to AdImpact. Steil has still outpaced Berman in overall advertising spending, with about $5.9 million compared with more than $3 million for Berman, WisPolitics reported. The DCCC also made a joint ad buy of more than $270,000 for the Berman campaign. 

Republican-aligned groups are also pouring money into the race. The No Going Back Pac, backed by Trump, spent over $400,000 on Steil along with crypto-backed Super PAC Wisconsin Working PAC spending over $500,000.

But Barca said spending may not be enough to overcome a broader political shift if voters remain displeased with the policies supported by Steil and other congressional Republicans. 

“This is one of those potentially wave years where money can’t save you,” Barca said. “When you’ve got people hopping mad, and especially given they can connect the dots and tie what’s going on directly to policies that Steil has supported, I think that hurts dramatically.”

Candidates make their case to voters at home

While the political environment and campaign spending have drawn national attention to the race, both candidates are focused on emphasizing their message to voters in the district through their policy priorities and differing visions.

Berman, a political newcomer with more than two decades of experience in health care, is positioning himself as an outsider who can relate to working-class voters. 

“I’m the true definition of a working-class candidate. I’m still working shifts in the emergency room as we run the campaign because I have a mortgage to pay,” Berman said. “Unlike Brian Steil, who sort of left for D.C. and kind of forgotten where he comes from, this is my home, and I’m invested in seeing our community do better.”

Berman said his experience in health care has shaped both his campaign and his decision to enter politics. Zepecki said this background could give him an advantage in a race where health care costs are a major concern for voters.

 “I think he is exactly the kind of candidate you want at a time when health care costs are among the most severe pain points that families are dealing with,” Zepecki said.

Berman has called for lowering health care costs, restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He is also campaigning to raise the minimum wage, protect reproductive rights and provide more funding for environmental protection. 

He criticized Steil’s support for Trump’s tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, saying Steil’s support for policies like these have made life more difficult for Wisconsin residents. 

Steil has emphasized securing the border, protecting older adults, supporting law enforcement and that he is “a strong supporter of life,” which signals support for the anti-abortion movement without mentioning the hot-button issue. He also highlighted legislation he supported, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security and increased the standard deduction. 

Both candidates emphasized affordability as the top issue for voters in the district, but disagree about the route to addressing it. 

Steil said Berman’s policy proposals would put more of a financial burden on taxpayers while Berman said Steil has failed to deliver on promises to lower costs.

“Brian Steil has made a lot of promises to folks here in this district,” Berman said. “He’s been running cycle after cycle on lowering costs, making health care affordable, protecting Social Security, and he, in fact, has not done any of those things.”

Steil pointed to his support for legislation that’s helped lower costs, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and legislation to produce more domestic oil and gas to lower household energy and living costs for Americans. 

“There’s more work to be done, and I think what you see is a contrast in policies between the radical left at the national stage, supported by my opponent, that would make life more expensive for families here in Wisconsin versus our policies to lower the costs for hardworking families,” Steil said. 

The candidates do share some common ground. Both have emphasized supporting veterans, with Berman drawing on more than a decade of experience working at the VA. Both have also emphasized protecting Social Security.  

Steil, having won four previous times, said the district has always been competitive and that his strategy remains the same as it has been even with continued efforts by Democrats.

“It’s a swing area of the state, a swing area of the country, which is why my focus is always on the grassroots and on direct voter outreach,” Steil said.

As Republicans face a mounting Democratic wave election, Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District becomes a battleground is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 5 minutes

As early voting starts next week in the Aug. 11 primary to determine who will be on the November ballot, Democrats hope to flip two U.S. House seats in Wisconsin.

Republicans took control of the House in 2022 and currently hold six of Wisconsin’s eight seats. The primaries feature several political newcomers and could offer insight into which wings of each party are exerting the most influence.

Here are the four House primaries we are watching in August:

Congressional District 1

Democrats are targeting this district to unseat four-term U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, who defeated Democratic challenger Peter Barca in 2024 by 10 percentage points. Barca wasn’t new to Wisconsin politics, having served in Congress and the state Assembly as minority leader. He also served as secretary of the state Department of Revenue before his 2024 run.

“On paper, it’s a competitive district,” said Barry Burden, University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center. “The trouble is Steil is a really formidable incumbent.”

Because Steil, who succeeded former House Speaker Paul Ryan in 2019, has a fundraising advantage and is not a controversial figure, Burden said this district is much harder to flip regardless of national Democratic efforts. Since the start of his latest term, Steil has raised $3 million, received more than $2 million from other committees and has $6.1 million cash on hand.

ER nurse Mitchell Berman has established a clear edge in the primary. He has received multiple lawmaker endorsements, including Reps. Ann Roe, D-Janesville; Ben DeSmidt, D-Kenosha; and Tip McGuire, D-Kenosha. He recently launched a six-figure ad buy, highlighting his experience as a nurse working with veterans and his campaign on protecting health care and lowering costs. He has raised over $650,000 and has about $220,000 cash on hand.

Milwaukee Ald. Peter Burgelis suspended his campaign after the July 15 campaign finance filing deadline and offered to support Berman. Burgelis’ report showed he had raised just over $54,000 in the most recent quarter. He had been campaigning on lowering costs, making communities safer and defending voting rights.

Lorenzo Santos, a Navy veteran and the former Young Democrats of Wisconsin chair, previously ran for the seat in 2024, but suspended his campaign before the primary. His top priorities include raising the federal minimum wage to $26 by 2030, universal Medicare and supporting veteran mental health services. He has about $10,000. 

Miguel Aranda is the Whitewater Unified School District Board vice president and the associate director of PreCollege Programs at UW-Whitewater. His campaign emphasizes that he is the only Spanish speaker in the race, and his priorities include criminal justice and immigration reform, supporting unions and protecting Medicare. He has more than $13,000 cash on hand.

What we’re watching: In what’s supposed to be a good year for Democrats and a bad year for incumbents, will a relatively unknown Democratic nominee give Steil any trouble?

Congressional District 3

The top Democratic target in Wisconsin is U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden. The 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke and former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge are running in the Democratic primary.

Burden said this is the only congressional district in the state seriously in play for Democrats. 

Van Orden has had a controversial political career after succeeding longtime Democratic moderate Ron Kind. He is known for his incendiary tweets and past clashes such as scolding teenage Senate pages in 2023 and confronting a La Crosse library worker over an LGBTQ+ book display in 2021. He also closely aligns with President Donald Trump, who won Wisconsin in 2024 but has since seen his approval ratings crater.

“He’s in real jeopardy,” Burden said. “This could be a district that Republicans lose.”

Cooke lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than 3 percentage points. Burden said her high-profile endorsements, including U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Bernie Sanders and state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska, give her a leg up in the Aug. 11 primary. Cooke leads in fundraising at nearly $7.5 million in the latest quarter with $2.5 million cash on hand while Van Orden raised $5.2 million with $4.7 million in the bank.

Cooke has faced criticism for portraying herself as a political outsider while working as a Democratic fundraiser and as a political consultant for controversy-courting Minocqua Brewing Company owner Kirk Bangstad. She has more recently worked with the center-left think tank Third Way.

Her biggest campaign priorities include expanding Medicare, supporting farmers and lowering costs for working families. 

Berge is running for the seat for the first time. She has received endorsements from legislators including state Sen. Jeff Smith, D-Brunswick, and state Rep. Tara Johnson, D-town of Shelby. She touts her prior elected experience and supports universal health care and affordable housing. Berge has raised $686,000.

What we’re watching: What will Democratic turnout in the August primary tell us about Van Orden’s chances compared with 2024?

Congressional District 7

This far northern Wisconsin district has two loaded primaries as U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany wraps up three terms in Congress to run for governor. Five Republicans are vying to keep the seat red while three Democrats make their bids in what will likely remain a safe Republican district.

Wausau financial adviser Kevin Hermening, Chippewa County factory worker Jessi Ebben, Crescent business owner Niina Baum, Superior contractor Don Raihala, and Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of former congressman and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, are competing in the Republican primary. 

Alfonso leads the fundraising race at $1.25 million, with Ebben trailing behind with just over $460,000.

Hermening, a Marine veteran, has raised $103,000 for his campaign but also gave himself a $1 million loan. He is endorsed by lawmakers including state Sen. Romaine Quinn, R-Birchwood, and state Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield. His top campaign issues include protecting Social Security and Medicare and supporting veterans.

Raihala said some of the biggest issues constituents have in the district are illegal immigration and the Jeffrey Epstein files, and he said he would continue to support deportations of immigrants lacking permanent legal status and the full release of the files.

Baum holds a more moderate view of immigration, saying that while she supports border security, she says immigrants are essential in Wisconsin and wants to create a “functional legal pathway” for workers. She also supports a data center moratorium and wants to uplift Wisconsin farmers. Baum has raised about $6,000.

Similar to Raihala, Ebben holds border security high on her priority list, as well as pro-life values, Second Amendment rights and strengthening rural communities. She also emphasizes her intense support for Trump, though she did not receive his endorsement for her campaign.

Trump’s endorsement went early in the race to Alfonso, 26, who also received endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and four of the six Wisconsin Republican congressional incumbents. His top priorities include states’ rights, pro-life values and supporting school choice.

Burden said the Trump endorsement might not be enough to pull Alfonso through.

“Alfonso has these other liabilities,” Burden said. “His youth and inexperience are serious. He’s just old enough to serve in Congress and really has not had any experience being employed or working in party politics in any meaningful way.” 

The wealthy Republican Uihlein family split their donations in this district. Richard Uihlein donated to Alfonso’s campaign and gave $1 million to a PAC supporting him. But his wife, Elizabeth Uihlein, donated to Ebben’s campaign and gave $1 million to a PAC supporting her. Burden said this highlights the divide among party insiders whether to follow Trump’s lead or not.

What we’re watching: Is Trump’s endorsement enough to override concerns about inexperience and nepotism in northern Wisconsin?

Congressional District 8

Three Democratic newcomers are competing to unseat freshman U.S. Rep. Tony Wied, who won by about 15 percentage points against obstetrician-gynecologist Kristin Lyerly in 2024, in this solid Republican Green Bay area district. 

Mark Scheffler, a retired business owner, heavily campaigns on the idea of a “sustainable society,” which includes affordable health care, privacy rights and economic prosperity. He also prioritizes conservation and protecting the environment. Scheffler has raised just over $107,000, compared to Wied’s $1 million haul.

Rick Crosson is an Army veteran from Green Bay. His campaign says he wants to reform the Department of Veterans Affairs for more timely and quality treatment, fighting agriculture corporations to support small farmers and supporting rural reproductive health care. He has raised just over $63,000.

Democratic Socialist Katrina deVille, a transgender woman, advocates for a $22 federal minimum wage, universal health care and free child care. She also says she wants to file articles of impeachment against Trump on her first day if elected. She has raised just under $3,000.

What we’re watching: Can Democrats mount a credible challenge in northeast Wisconsin in what could be a blue wave year?

Here are four congressional races to watch in Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 primary is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.