President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies have kept the world guessing.

Uncertainty about what’s next — and how U.S. companies will absorb new costs —  has stirred anxiety among investors, business owners and consumers. 

“That whipsawing back and forth, that creates a tremendous amount of uncertainty,” said  Steven Deller, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who researches the state’s agricultural and manufacturing economy. “And one thing that the economy hates is uncertainty.” 

What does it all mean for Wisconsin? Fast-shifting policies make that difficult to definitely say. But Wisconsin Watch spoke with experts and examined economic numbers to provide some context. 

First, what are tariffs and why is Trump issuing them? 

Tariffs are a federal tax American importers pay when goods arrive from other countries. 

The U.S. previously forged free trade agreements with 20 countries that limited tariffs in trade. Trump’s tariffs have blown up the status quo and prompted retaliation that has harmed some domestic producers and further rattled the global economy. 

The Trump administration has cited several justifications for his policies, some of them conflicting. It says tariffs will boost manufacturing by encouraging Americans to buy domestic goods, reduce U.S. trade deficits and pressure countries to cut deals on other issues — like curbing the fentanyl trade and illegal immigration. 

To what do Trump’s tariffs apply?

First Trump added “national emergency” tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on imports from China, Canada and Mexico. After adjusting those tariffs several times, he announced on April 2 a baseline 10% tariff on goods from all countries that export to the U.S., along with higher “reciprocal” tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has trade deficits — a move that set the stock market plunging. Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs days later. 

As it stands, most Chinese imports face tariffs of 145%, while Canada and Mexico face 25% tariffs, along with 10% for most everyone else. 

Trump has exempted some goods from reciprocal tariffs, including copper, pharmaceuticals, lumber and electronics such as smartphones and laptops. However, Trump administration investigations of the national security and economic effects of importing items he exempted could result in additional tariffs. The White House has placed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports.

How is this playing in Wisconsin? 

Wisconsin’s large manufacturing and agricultural sectors make its economy strong, said Missy Hughes, secretary and CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. But business leaders she works with are increasingly hesitating to make big investments.

“It’s frustrating because our businesses were doing really well, and the Wisconsin economy is strong and has been strong for the last two years,” she said.

How much does Wisconsin import? 

Wisconsin imported more than $38 billion in goods last year, about half from countries facing the highest Trump tariffs: China, Canada and Mexico.

Machinery and electronic products made up about one-third of Wisconsin’s total import value last year. Pharmaceutical products, some of which Trump has since spared from tariffs, made up 12%.

Who bears the cost of tariffs?  

Importers pay tariffs to Customs and Border Protection when goods enter the country. The companies may absorb those costs or pass them to consumers by hiking prices — a common scenario.

Deller calls tariffs a regressive tax because they most affect people with lower income.

“They tend to spend their money more on goods than services,” he said. “They’re more likely to shop at a Walmart or a Dollar General-type store, and a lot of the goods that are sold in those kinds of stores come from international markets.”

How might tariffs affect Wisconsin manufacturers? 

“U.S tariffs might benefit domestic manufacturers if they serve as a negotiating tool to encourage other countries to lower their own tariffs or other barriers to trade,” according to a recent Wisconsin Policy Forum report. “They might also insulate Wisconsin manufacturers from international competition at home.” 

But they can harm Wisconsin producers by raising prices on raw materials or components that they import, such as steel or aluminum, the report added. Additionally, Trump’s tariffs have prompted retaliation that makes U.S. exports more expensive — at the risk of prompting foreign companies to drop Wisconsin suppliers.  

Wisconsin’s top exports are particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs: industrial and electrical machinery, accounting for $10.9 billion or nearly 40% of state exports in 2024, according to the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

A New York Times analysis shows that Wisconsin workers may be among those hit hardest by retaliatory tariffs because affected industries support so many jobs in the state. 

“Economists don’t agree on anything except for tariffs. You put a hundred economists in the room, and you ask them are tariffs a good policy —  and 99 of them are going to tell you, no,” Deller said. “This is bad policy. At least the way that Trump is doing it. Everybody loses.”

Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.

DataWatch: Trump’s tariffs and Wisconsin’s economy is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

The April 1 Wisconsin Supreme Court election was the most expensive U.S. court race in history, drawing more than $100 million in campaign spending. 

That eye-popping figure has drawn plenty of headlines — as did the millions spent by billionaire Elon Musk to support Republican-backed Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, who lost handily to Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, backed by Democrats.

But the race also set another record in Wisconsin for a spring election not featuring a presidential primary contest: in voter turnout. 

More than 2.3 million people cast ballots in the election, according to Associated Press tracking. That amounts to nearly 51% of the voting age population, shattering the previous record for such elections of 39% in 2023.

The high turnout is part of a trend in Wisconsin politics since President Donald Trump’s first election in 2016, Marquette University’s John Johnson wrote in an analysis last week.

“Wisconsin’s electorate is just plain extremely engaged,” he wrote. “Scour American history and you’ll struggle to find an example of (a) state as hyper-engaged with, and narrowly divided by, electoral politics as Wisconsin in the present moment.” 

Last week’s election offered good news for Democrats, aside from the top-line figures in Crawford’s 55%-45% win. (The Supreme Court is officially nonpartisan, but Democrats backed Crawford, while Republicans backed Schimel.) 

When comparing the high-turnout 2024 presidential election to the latest Supreme Court race, voting shifted toward the Democratic-backed candidate in all 72 counties.

The biggest difference in the latest election, according to Johnson: “A majority of the million voters who stayed home are probably Republicans, or at least Trump supporters.” 

More broadly, it’s clear that the high stakes of the Supreme Court race drove most to cast ballots in an election that also included an officially nonpartisan contest for state superintendent of public instruction and a successful ballot measure to enshrine voter ID requirements in the Wisconsin Constitution. 

Nearly 200,000 people who cast ballots did not choose a superintendent candidate. Democratic-backed incumbent Jill Underly prevailed over Republican-backed Brittany Kinser by a 53%-47% margin — closer than the Supreme Court race. 

Additionally, about 76,000 voters did not weigh in on the voter ID amendment.

Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.

DataWatch: Record spending. Record turnout. We crunched some numbers from the Supreme Court contest is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

What is a year of life behind bars worth for someone who didn’t commit a crime?

One standard in Wisconsin suggests it’s no more than $5,000.  

That’s the maximum compensation the state offers for each year of incarceration to those wrongfully convicted of crimes — capping payouts at $25,000 across all years, with rare exceptions. 

Of the 35 states with wrongful conviction compensation laws, Wisconsin is stingier than most. 

The state on average pays about $4,200 per year of wrongful incarceration to those who filed and received compensation, according to an analysis of data collected by the National Registry of Exonerations. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is not among the 19 states that offer additional non-monetary compensation for health care, education, counseling and re-entry into society. 

The federal government, by contrast, offers up $50,000 per year of incarceration to those wrongfully convicted in the federal system, or up to $100,000 per year for those who were on death row. 

“One can be so quickly wrongfully convicted but it takes years to recover,” Fred Saecker, who in 1996 was exonerated by DNA testing for a rape he didn’t commit seven years earlier, testified to a legislative committee in 2017. “When we are released, we are sent out to fail without resources, health care or opportunities.”

In rare cases, the Wisconsin Claims Board can recommend that the Legislature provide additional compensation to exonerees. 

Daryl Holloway in 2022 received $1 million plus $100,000 in attorneys’ fees for the 24 years he spent wrongfully convicted of sexual assault charges. Just two years later, Derrick Sanders was awarded the state maximum of $25,000 for 26 years he spent in prison.

Sanders, who in 1993 was wrongfully convicted of murder, had requested more than $5.7 million from the state, citing his innocence, lack of a criminal record at the time of his arrest and his honorable discharge from the U.S. Navy. Although the board recognized “clear and convincing” evidence of his innocence, he was awarded a tiny fraction of that request. 

State Sen. LaTonya Johnson, D-Milwaukee, supported past legislation to boost the compensation maximum. She said the current limit falls short of what’s just or helpful to someone reentering society.

“You can’t take away somebody’s entire life and then say, ‘Here’s $25,000, go start over,’” she said. “What does that begin to cover?”

Jarrett Adams was denied compensation in 2009, two years after being released from prison. Adams was a teenager in 2000 when an all-white Jefferson County jury convicted him of sexual assault. A federal appeals court later vacated the conviction, citing insufficient evidence and ineffective counsel. But in denying his claim for compensation, the Wisconsin Claims Board wrote that he lacked “clear and convincing” evidence of his innocence.

Adams went on to earn a law degree and was part of the legal team that successfully argued for a new trial for Richard Beranek, who spent two decades in prison on rape, battery and burglary charges before being exonerated with the help of DNA evidence. 

Adams testified in 2015 in support of bipartisan legislation to change compensation practices.

Among other changes, the legislation would have raised the limit on compensation to $1 million for all years of wrongful incarceration while adding additional services to help exonerees reenter society. The legislation unanimously cleared the Assembly but died in the Senate.

“There are no programs designed to help those wrongfully convicted reenter society,” Adams wrote in his testimony. “However, those who are convicted and released from prison are afforded services by the state.”

Years have passed since the last such proposal in the Legislature. Johnson said she would back similar legislation if it returned, but Republican colleagues tell her they lack the appetite. 

In the past 20 years, 61 people have had convictions reversed in Wisconsin, collectively spending about 500 years imprisoned. Of that group, 27 applied for compensation, with 15 receiving some amount. 

In each denial, the claims board concluded that the wrongfully imprisoned person lacked “clear and convincing” evidence of innocence.

Johnson said she was “shocked” by such denials.

In denying Danny Wilber’s compensation claim following the 2022 reversal of a first-degree murder conviction that sent him to prison for 16 years, the claims board wrote that vacated judgments or exonerations based on legal technicalities such as ineffective counsel or unjust treatment in court do not necessarily prove innocence.

Wilber’s conviction was vacated because the extreme way he was shackled in court could have prejudiced the jury.  

Wisconsin law “does not provide compensation to individuals who simply establish that their convictions have been overturned, it provides compensation to individuals who establish their innocence by clear and convincing evidence,” the board wrote. 

The claims board is currently considering requests by Robert and David Bintz, who spent 24 years in prison for a murder in Green Bay that they didn’t commit. They seek about $2.1 million each.

Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.

DataWatch: Wisconsin gives little compensation to wrongfully convicted is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Five years ago, Mike Crowley lacked the courage to serve as a living kidney donor for family — let alone for an absolute stranger, he said.

But on Jan. 8, Crowley — a Waukesha County supervisor and CEO of the National Kidney Foundation of Wisconsin — had surgery to do just that, a decision he now sees as decades in the making.

That’s due to his personal and professional experiences. Twenty-six years ago, his then-2-year-old son was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, often called juvenile diabetes, a condition in which the pancreas makes little or no insulin. If left untreated, it can cause a range of complications, including damage to the kidneys or other organs. 

While his son’s case was found early and he continues to receive treatment, many people with diabetes don’t see such outcomes. People with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes make up over a quarter of those waiting for an organ transplant in Wisconsin. People needing a kidney account for nearly 80% of those on the transplant list.

When Crowley took the helm of the National Kidney Foundation of Wisconsin, he gradually learned much more about kidney disease, including connections to diabetes. And last March, he visited three dialysis clinics in Wisconsin to distribute care bags to patients.

“I cried when I got back to my truck after doing the delivery at each one because what I saw was hopelessness,” Crowley said. “They need a kidney, they’re most likely not going to get a kidney transplant in their lifetime.”

Last year 43 people in Wisconsin died while waiting for a kidney transplant. Another 65 became too sick to receive a transplant.

Crowley wanted to be a part of the solution. He knew he was healthy enough to do so. On his 60th birthday last August, he rode his bicycle 102 miles from Wisconsin to Iowa in less than eight hours as part of a fundraiser for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation. When he crossed the finish line, he looked at the Mississippi River and wept as he reflected on how amazing he felt after the grueling ride. If he could pass the strict medical, social, mental health and financial assessments, “why wouldn’t I be a kidney donor?”

Two days later, he logged onto a UW Health portal and began the process. After four months of extensive testing, he was approved to be an altruistic kidney donor, meaning he would donate to a stranger on the transplant list. 

“You don’t need to be a match to anybody in your immediate family or a friend,” he said, calling the decision “the best thing I’ve ever done in my life.”

“Obviously, having kids, getting married, buying a house, those are all, you know, great experiences,” he said. “But this takes the cake.”

Phil Witkiewicz was placed on the transplant list a decade after being diagnosed with a rare liver disease. He had long managed the symptoms with liver stents, but he became nearly bedridden when they stopped working. That flipped his family’s life upside down, his wife Emily said.

Witkiewicz was just 43 when added to the transplant list last July. 

Most people needing an organ transplant in Wisconsin are 50 or older, although those waiting for pancreatic transplants or dual pancreas and kidney transplants are usually younger.

Witkiewicz was called in twice for a potential transplant, only to find that the donated liver wasn’t viable.

But through those disappointments, Witkiewicz and his wife Emily held out hope that one of their friends could donate. The friend passed a battery of blood tests, MRIs and dental screenings only to discover his liver was 3% too small to donate. 

“That was like the ultimate blow,” Emily said.

Last December, almost five months after being put on the transplant list, Phil finally received a liver from someone who had died, flipping life back to a new normal. Witkiewicz still undergoes routine blood testing and takes numerous medications to prevent infections and keep his body from rejecting the organ, but he’s just happy to be alive.

Emily said she recognizes the duality of her husband’s relief: What was the best day of his life was the end of someone else’s. Emily is registered to be an organ donor, as is her 16-year-old son. Wisconsin residents can register when getting their driver’s license or through the Wisconsin Donor Registry.

“Seeing what it did for my husband, and knowing somebody’s sick in bed waiting for an organ and my tragedy could turn into somebody’s best day,” she said, “that would be worth it.”

Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.

DataWatch: Many die awaiting kidney transplants in Wisconsin, so this man donated his is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Wisconsin may be known for its cheese, but it’s also home to 10 of the 20 drunkest cities in America, according to a 2024 report from 24/7 Wall St. 2023 data from America’s Health Rankings also showed that Wisconsin had some of the highest levels of heavy, excessive and binge drinking in the United States. A previous DataWatch about Wisconsin health looks at these topics in more depth.

Data from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism provides a deeper look at what Wisconsin residents are drinking and how much. Its latest report, released in May 2024, provided data on consumption of various types of alcohol from 1970 to 2022. 

Among Wisconsin’s legal drinking age population, the consumption of beer decreased by 20% from 2012 to 2022, an analysis of that data shows. The average person 21 or older drank about 29.5 gallons of beer in 2022, which is equivalent to about 316 standard drinks. The NIAAA defines a standard drink as the amount of alcoholic beverage it takes to drink 0.6 fluid ounces of ethanol, the “active ingredient” in alcohol. For beer, this is about 12 fluid ounces.

Over the same time period, Wisconsin drinkers consumed 32% more spirits. NIAAA defines a spirit as an alcoholic drink with about 40% alcohol content. The 2022 average was 4.33 gallons per person, equivalent to around 370 standard drinks. A standard drink of spirits is about 1.5 fluid ounces and for wine is generally five fluid ounces. Wine drinking increased by 4% to an average of 3.42 gallons per person, which is about 88 standard drinks.

While the increase in spirits may seem small, the higher ethanol content means people are consuming significantly more “active” alcohol. In 2022, the average strength of ethanol consumed by a person 21 or over across all alcohol was 9.5%. In 2012, the strength was 7.9%.

While total consumption of alcoholic beverages dropped by about 13% between 2012 and 2022, there was a 4% increase in ethanol consumption. Alcoholic beverage consumption averaged about 37.3 gallons per person in 2022. The average ethanol consumption was about 3.55 gallons – roughly equivalent to 760 standard drinks in a year. That averages out to a little over two drinks each day. According to the NIAAA, the daily recommended limit of alcohol is two drinks for men and one drink for women.

Research from the National Cancer Institute indicates that daily alcohol consumption is linked to increased cancer risks across the human body. The National Institutes of Health also reported that long-term alcohol use can increase risk factors for over 200 diseases. It also writes that “no amount of alcohol is ‘safe’ or beneficial for your health.”

DataWatch: Wisconsin residents of legal drinking age consumed 35+ gallons of alcohol a person in 2022 is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

In 2022, the percent of Wisconsin residents who had fluoridated water dropped sharply. According to data from the state’s Department of Health Services, 86.9% of residents had fluoridated water in 2021. A year later, that had dropped to 84.9%. Combining data from the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Environmental Protection Agency shows that, in 2024, about 83.6% of the state’s residents have fluoridated water.

The Wisconsin State Journal reported that multiple communities are removing fluoride from their water systems. Opponents of fluoridated water cited a report on fluoride being harmful to children. However, the CDC named fluoridated water systems as one of the greatest health achievements of the 1900s. The CDC recommends 0.7 milligrams of water per liter, or about three drops of fluoride per 55 gallons of water.

This isn’t just a Wisconsin problem. Across the country, fluoride in water is becoming a controversial topic. Coverage from the Associated Press indicated that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push for removing fluoride from water systems is one of the inciting factors to the controversy. Kennedy is now President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the federal Department of Health and Human Services. 

According to a 2018 publication by the American Dental Association, having fluoride in water systems prevents 25% of tooth decay in children and adults. It can also help reverse tooth decay and lower dental costs for the average consumer. Annually, fluoridated water can lower the cost of dental care by over $32 per person. 

The Fluoride Action Network, an organization dedicated to ending water fluoridation, argues that fluoride is an unnecessary, toxic and dangerous chemical that should not be added to water systems. It cites a 2024 report by the HHS’s National Toxicology Program that says having twice the CDC-recommended amount of fluoride in water systems correlates with lower IQs in children. The study was not conducted with any data from the United States and does not specify that fluoride causes a lower IQ.

DataWatch: Fight against fluoride is expanding on the local and national stage is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Marquette University’s John Johnson analyzed voting data for Wisconsin’s 2024 U.S. Senate and presidential elections. “Our electorate is increasingly polarized by education,” Johnson writes.

The youngest voters in Wisconsin shifted slightly toward Republicans in both races while other age groups shifted Democratic in the Senate race and Republican in the presidential. The poorest and richest areas in Wisconsin more often vote Democratic, while the middle class areas have leaned Republican.

Wisconsin has one of highest percentages of tipped workers in the US

The Tax Policy Center’s August 2024 analysis showed that about 5% of workers in the state of Wisconsin work “tipped” jobs. The data analysis classifies tipped employees as dining room staff and the majority of people working in personal care or service jobs (nail technicians, hair stylists, etc.). In July 2024, Wisconsin’s state minimum wage for tipped workers was slightly higher than the federal standard of $2.13 per hour.

Chronic absenteeism has improved among students, but remains high

Wisconsin Policy Forum’s October 2024 analysis showed that students of all ages are chronically absent, defined as missing more than 10% of school days in a year under any circumstances.

The issue is most common at the high school level, where nearly one in four students is chronically absent. Chronic absenteeism reached a peak following the pandemic, and while the 2023 rates are lower than the 2022 rates, they have not returned to pre-pandemic norms.

Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.

DataWatch: Rightward election shift was weaker in Wisconsin than other states is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.