Reading Time: 7 minutes

Today is Election Day, and the votes Wisconsinites cast are expected to shape the Badger State for years to come.

Voters will choose between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany for the state’s next governor after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers opted not to seek reelection after two terms.

Voters will select who to send to Congress and represent their corners of the state during the final two years of the Trump administration.

Elections for the state Assembly and Senate will determine which party holds power in the Legislature and whether there will be split government or one-party control in the Capitol in the coming years.

Four-year terms for attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer are also on everyone’s ballot in Wisconsin, as well as three constitutional amendment questions. County sheriffs, clerks of court and in some areas school funding referendums are also on the ballot.

The key question is to what extent the national midterm wave favoring Democrats hits races across Wisconsin’s ballot. The final Marquette University Law School poll before Election Day showed President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a record low of 37% among registered voters in Wisconsin. In the governor’s race, Crowley leads Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters with 4% undecided ahead of Tuesday. Crowley has a 30-point lead with likely independent voters at 56% to Tiffany’s 26%. 

Wisconsinites have exceeded the number of people who voted early in 2022, when the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race were the top contests on ballots that year. As of Friday, more than 693,000 people voted early in person or by mail, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. At the same time in 2022, more than 642,000 people cast a ballot prior to Election Day. 

Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. Learn what’s on your ballot, your polling place location and more at myvote.wi.gov. Voters must show a valid photo ID and can register at the polls on Election Day with proof of residency. 

Before then, read more about the candidates for statewide, congressional and legislative races by visiting Wisconsin Watch’s 2026 voter guide. 

Governor and lieutenant governor

It’s been 16 years since the last open race for governor in Wisconsin. 

Candidates entered the race left and right after Evers announced his retirement in 2025. It’s now down to Crowley, the Democrat, and Tiffany, the Republican. 

Both men are two very different candidates. Crowley, 40, is in his second term as Milwaukee County executive and previously was elected to two terms in the state Assembly. He narrowly won the Democratic nomination in August with Evers’ endorsement. If he is elected on Tuesday, he would become the state’s first Black governor.

Crowley’s campaign has focused on lowering costs for Wisconsinites with ideas like providing a public option for BadgerCare and capping child care costs at 7% of a household’s income for families with children under age 5. He also has promoted his ability to work across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation, frequently highlighting the 2023 shared revenue law that allowed Milwaukee County, and the city of Milwaukee, to enact new sales taxes to offset the deficits caused by rising pension costs. Tiffany has used the sales tax increase to suggest Crowley would raise taxes as governor. 

Tiffany, 68, has represented Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives since he was first elected in 2020. He also served one term in the Assembly and was elected twice to the state Senate. He cleared the Republican primary field earlier this year after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Crowley has attacked Tiffany’s connection to Trump as the president’s approval ratings plummet. 

Tiffany’s campaign has also focused on rising costs across the state, although his solutions have largely focused on lowering taxes, specifically freezing property taxes and providing a 10% income tax cut to families earning less than $150,000 a year. 

Voters will see a second name on their ballot alongside Crowley and Tiffany. In Wisconsin, candidates for lieutenant governor form a joint ticket with the gubernatorial nominee after the state’s partisan primary. 

The Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor is Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, and the Republican nominee is David Varnam, a stay-at-home dad who previously served as mayor of Lancaster. Godlewski was unopposed in the Democratic primary, and Varnam defeated the Republican Party of Wisconsin-endorsed candidate in the party’s primary to join Tiffany’s ticket.

Voters will see the governor and lieutenant governor candidates as a joint ticket in the same section on the ballot. A vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for governor is a vote for the same party’s candidate for lieutenant governor.

Attorney general

The 2026 race for attorney general is a rematch of the 2022 contest between two-term Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul and Republican Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney. Kaul defeated Toney four years ago by less than 2%. 

In the rematch, Kaul has said he wants to continue progress he believes the state has made in protecting Wisconsinites, including securing settlements tied to the state’s environmental laws and responding to the opioid epidemic. Toney has criticized Kaul for “broken promises” tied to backlogs at the state’s crime labs and making politics part of leading the state’s Department of Justice through lawsuits against the Trump administration. 

Congress

All eight congressional districts are up for reelection, but the 1st and 3rd districts are the key races to watch as Democrats set their sights on both. 

Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil faces a challenge from Democrat Mitchell Berman, an ER nurse and political newcomer, in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District. Berman is positioning himself as an outsider, looking to appeal to working-class voters who are unhappy with Steil’s record in Congress. He was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program in September, which provides chosen candidates with campaign support. Steil, who has represented the district since 2019, has greater name recognition and financial resources. 

Polling is close in this race. A Fox News Power Ranking listed the district as a “toss-up” and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

The 3rd Congressional District is one of the most targeted seats in the nation as Republican U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden faces a challenge from Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a rematch from 2024. National Democrats have also added this district to its “Red to Blue” program, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan organization forecasting election outcomes, recently labeled this district as “leans Democratic.” 

Cooke is a waitress and former political consultant. Her top priorities include a $15-an-hour federal minimum wage, addressing teacher shortages with bonuses and raises, protecting abortion rights and expanding Medicare. Van Orden, who has held the seat since 2022, has focused much of his time in Congress on veteran-related legislation. He emphasizes working with Trump on issues such as the war in Iran.

This is the first year since 2020 — when Van Orden first ran and lost to the Democratic incumbent Ron Kind — when Republicans are not favored to win. Republicans may lose seats if this year follows a historical pattern of midterm voters punishing the president’s party. 

Assembly and Senate 

Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Legislature since they swept into power in 2010. This year, it’s a competitive landscape for the Assembly and the Senate, stemming from significant gains Democrats made in 2024 after new legislative maps were signed into law. 

The moves Assembly and Senate Democrats made two years ago occurred the same year Trump won Wisconsin on the way back to the White House. In 2026, the national political environment supports Democrats. Wisconsin’s Assembly and Senate Democrats are eyeing potential majorities in both chambers if that national mood flows down-ballot to legislative races. 

In the Senate, Democrats need to flip two of three Republican-held seats and hold onto a Democratic district in Eau Claire to win a majority in the chamber. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the districts for all four of those key races in 2024, according to an analysis by John Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette University Law School. 

In the Assembly, Democrats need to maintain all 45 of their existing seats and flip another five Republican districts to win a majority. Republicans hold five seats in districts that Harris won in 2024, but Democrats also have to compete against strong incumbents in several of those districts.

Secretary of state 

Three candidates are running for Wisconsin secretary of state, a role with limited responsibilities compared to officials with the title in other states across the country. 

The candidates this year include Republican Jay Schroeder, Democrat JoCasta Zamarripa and Green Party candidate Pete Karas. 

The debate in this race has focused on duties that the office does not currently have the power to control. Schroeder has campaigned on ending the Wisconsin Elections Commission and bringing the duties under the secretary of state, an action that would require approval from the governor and the Legislature. Zamarripa said she instead sees the office as a platform to protect voting rights. Karas said his campaign aims to break the state’s two-party system. 

Treasurer

Republican State Treasurer John Leiber, the lone statewide GOP elected official, faces a challenge in 2026 from Democrat Yee Leng Xiong, the executive director of Wausau’s New Beginnings for Refugees who is also a Marathon County Board member and D.C. Everest School Board member. 

Like the secretary of state, Wisconsin’s state treasurer has limited responsibilities. Republicans sought to entirely eliminate the office eight years ago, but the effort was rejected by voters. Leiber said he wants to provide continuity to the office, which hasn’t had a multiterm treasurer since Republican Jack C. Voight served from 1995 through 2007. Xiong said he sees an opportunity to grow the treasurer’s responsibilities, especially if Democrats control the Legislature and the governor’s office. 

Three constitutional amendments

Three questions on ballots across the state are asking voters to determine whether to make changes to the state constitution. 

Under the eight years of the Evers administration, Republican lawmakers have used the constitutional amendment process as a way to avoid the governor’s veto pen. 

The questions on the ballot in 2026 attempt to address what Republicans have described as various aspects of government overreach and Democrats and other civic groups have said are unnecessary changes. 

The constitutional amendments before voters include: 

• Whether the governor should have the ability to raise taxes or fees through the use of the partial veto. The question stems from Evers’ 2023 veto that raised school district revenue limits for the next 400 years, which Republicans incorrectly describe as a property tax increase. Increased revenue limits allow districts to raise property taxes, but local school boards ultimately make those decisions. Under limits, the state can also lower property taxes with increased state funding for public schools.
• Whether the state government can close a place of worship during a public health emergency, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• Whether various levels of government from education to state agencies should be prohibited from “discriminating against, or granting preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin.” Groups both opposed and in support of the amendment have described it as an anti-diversity, equity and inclusion measure that could limit programs and resources for minority communities across the state. 

School district referendums 

Another 71 school districts are asking voters in their communities to approve tax increases to either help districts pay expenses to operate their schools or borrow money for construction projects. 

Fifty-four districts are seeking operational help from taxpayers while 10 districts are asking voters to sign off on capital expenses. Seven school districts are asking voters to sign off on both operating and construction referendums. They include: Brown Deer, Greenfield, Little Chute, Lodi, Princeton, Unity and Waunakee school districts. 

Earlier this year, 72 school districts turned to voters to sign off on referendums. Just over 60% were approved during the April election.

Other local races

Voters will also make decisions in local elections, such as county sheriff and clerk of circuit court. For more information about specific local races on your ballot, visit myvote.wi.gov.

Learn more about the candidates and questions on your ballot. is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 12 minutes

At a recent Oktoberfest parade through downtown Prairie du Chien, Republican state Sen. Howard Marklein tossed candy and shook hands with constituents. A few weeks earlier on the same strip, his Democratic challenger state Rep. Jenna Jacobson spoke with voters on the final stop of what her campaign dubbed “The Marklein Markup Tour.”

Neither candidate has been on the ballot before in this Mississippi River community on the western edge of the 17th Senate District, not even Marklein in his previous three runs.

That’s because the Wisconsin political landscape has changed significantly since Gov. Tony Evers signed new legislative maps into law in 2024.

The city of 5,000, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and then Donald Trump in 2024, was represented for more than a decade by Democrats in a state Senate district that stretched north to La Crosse. 

Prairie du Chien today is now part of one of four key Senate races in 2026 that will determine which party holds the majority in the chamber next year. The 17th previously stretched north to deep red Juneau County, but now incorporates more of deep blue Dane and more mixed Green and Crawford counties. 

It’s those kinds of changes to lines on the Wisconsin political map that helped Democrats in 2024 flip four Senate and 10 Assembly seats, even as President Trump won Wisconsin on his way back to the White House. The four-year Senate seats up for election this year, including the 17th, weren’t on the ballot in 2024.

It’s also a different political environment in 2026 with Democrats surging amid high gas prices, the war in Iran and Trump’s plunging popularity. The national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee lists 17 target races that could lead to the party achieving majorities in the Senate and Assembly. Political analysts are watching the legislative districts where former Vice President Kamala Harris won two years ago as a sign of what seats in the Assembly and the Senate could flip this year. 

It’s still a question if the national midterm blue wave that polls are predicting will flow down the ballot to legislative races. Republican legislative campaign committees are outspending Democrats by more than $5 million in the Assembly and more than $2.5 million in the Senate in the final month before the election. Many Republican incumbents opted not to run this year, but others, like Marklein, are putting up a fight. 

Marklein said the increased pressure on the race from Democrats has not changed how he campaigns.

“It’s just the same as we’ve always done,” he said. “In sports, some games are bigger than others. The fundamentals don’t change. It’s blocking and tackling and, you know, it’s the same strategy.”

The momentum is certainly there for Democrats to flip the Senate, said John Johnson, a research fellow at the Marquette University Law School who has analyzed the political trends of the state’s legislative races. Of the three Republican-held seats, Marklein is the lone incumbent running for reelection. 

“In the Assembly, Democrats have to beat some strong Republican incumbents if they want 50 seats there, and in the Senate they don’t have to,” Johnson said. “They can just win the open seats and hold the seats they’ve already got, and that’ll be enough. So I think it really comes down to incumbency advantage and which seats are open.” 

The stakes of who wins these legislative races in 2026 are especially high, as the parties that control each of the chambers next year must work with a new governor in the executive branch.

If Democrats or Republicans win the governor’s office and both the Assembly and the Senate, they will gain full-party control of the Capitol, which creates a fast track to advance their party’s policies from bill to law. When Republicans swept into power after winning the governor’s office and the Legislature in 2010, they were able to pass policies such as Act 10, the controversial anti-union law that stripped collective bargaining rights for public sector unions.

On the other hand, Wisconsin could see continued split government if one party wins the governor’s office and the other wins one or both of the chambers of the Legislature. That’s been the case since retiring Evers won in 2018.

Wisconsin Democrats see potential to win complete control of state government. Democratic candidates have focused their campaigns on how the Trump administration and legislative Republicans have blocked access to health care or expanded public funding for private school vouchers. While Jacobson knocks doors in the 17th Senate District, she told Wisconsin Watch people plead for changes to help the cost of living. 

“The number one thing that I hear from folks is, please just do something. Literally anything,” Jacobson said. “They feel whatever has been happening at the state level is not filtering down.”

Marklein has had two years to introduce himself to the new parts of his district. In 2022, under the old district lines, he outperformed the Republican gubernatorial candidate. 

“I always outperform the top of the ticket,” Marklein told Wisconsin Watch. “I’m a farm boy. I don’t know any better than to work hard.”

Here, in a nutshell, are the 14 Senate and Assembly races to watch on election night to see which party will control the Legislature in the new year.

Senate District 5

Rep. Robyn Vining, D-Wauwatosa, and Republican business owner Mike Roberts are competing in the general election after incumbent Sen. Rob Hutton, R-Brookfield, decided not to seek reelection. 

Both Harris and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin won this district in 2024.

Vining, who has served four terms in the Assembly, is campaigning to increase funding for public schools, expand access to BadgerCare and defend reproductive rights. She serves on the committees on Children and Families; Health, Aging and Long-Term Care; Mental Health and Substance Abuse Prevention and Small Business Development. 

Roberts is campaigning to lower property taxes, increase staffing and resources for law enforcement agencies and lower health care costs by expanding access to preventative care and increasing food assistance spending on whole grains, fruits and vegetables by 20%.

Senate District 17

Of the three vulnerable Republican Senate seats on the ballot this November, Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, is the lone incumbent seeking reelection. He faces a challenge from two-term state Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, in the first election under the district’s new boundaries. Harris won the district by 1% and Baldwin won by nearly 5% in 2024. 

Marklein has served in the Legislature since his election to the Assembly in 2010 and is in his third term in the Senate where he is a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee tasked with crafting the biennial state budget. Jacobson was elected to the Assembly in 2022 and previously served on the Oregon Village Board.

Republicans have criticized Jacobson for co-sponsoring a series of bills during the recent legislative session after they were signed into law. Jacobson told Wisconsin Watch that was a “clerical error.” 

Jacobson’s campaign has argued the 17th District needs new leadership after Marklein’s decade-plus in the Legislature, and that Republican control has led to funding challenges for public school districts that have then turned to taxpayers through referendums.

Senate District 21

Republican Jim Croft and Democrat Trevor Jung are competing for an open seat after Republican Sen. Van Wanggaard chose not to seek reelection. Both Harris and Baldwin won in the district in 2024 by a narrow margin. 

Croft is a data analyst and Jung is the transit and mobility director for the city of Racine. Both candidates have centered their campaigns on easing the cost of living, although they differ on how to accomplish those goals. Croft is focused on lowering property taxes and limiting “red tape” to support businesses in the state. Jung has campaigned on addressing health care costs through exempting over-the-counter drugs from the state’s sales tax and insulating utility rate payers from rising energy costs due to the rise of data centers. 

Political attacks have been a key part of the race. Jung has faced allegations, which he denies, from Republicans that he has campaigned while also being paid for his job in Racine. A city spokesperson told the Racine County Eye that it reviewed Jung’s time logs and payroll and found no violations of overlap of his city job and campaign.

Senate District 31

Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeff Smith faces a challenge from Republican Michele Magadance Skinner, an Eau Claire County Board member. 

Smith has served in the Senate since 2018. Smith won in 2022 by 1 point, though under different legislative maps. Harris won the Eau Claire County-centered district in 2024 by just over 2 points.

The State Senate Democratic Committee filed a lawsuit against Skinner in August to remove her from the November ballot for alleged residency in Georgia, but a Dane County judge denied the request for removal. 

Smith currently serves on the Joint Legislative Council and Committee on Health, and he is running on abortion rights, funding public schools and protecting clean water in the state. Skinner serves on the Committee on Judiciary & Law Enforcement Highway Committee in Eau Claire County, and she is running on lowering income and property taxes and advocating for rural businesses and residents. Both candidates call for access to quality health care.

Assembly District 21

Democrat Dan Bukiewicz, mayor of Oak Creek, will face Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach, a Carroll University student, in November to replace Joint Finance Committee member Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, who is not seeking reelection. 

Rodriguez won the district by 2.8 percentage points in a district where Harris won by a little over 4 percentage points in 2024.

Bukiewicz is campaigning on lowering costs, ensuring community safety and increasing oversight on data centers. Pfaffenbach’s priorities include lowering property taxes, ensuring access to affordable health care and addressing concerns surrounding data centers development. In August, Pfaffenbach was placed on the Republican State Leadership Committee’s 2026 Wisconsin Candidate Spotlight series, asking voters to support his race to maintain control of the Legislature.

Assembly District 26

Freshman state Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan, flipped the district in 2024 by unseating former state Rep. Amy Binsfeld. He now faces a challenge from former Sheboygan Ald. John Belanger.

Sheehan won by 3 percentage points in 2024, while Harris carried the district by 2.7 percentage points.

Sheehan serves on the committees on Education and Workforce Development, Labor and Integrated Employment. He has supported legislation to eliminate sales taxes on over-the-counter medications, make child care more affordable and expand BadgerCare via federal Medicaid expansion. Belanger, who lost his city council seat in April, is prioritizing affordability, addressing concerns about data centers’ potential effects on costs and water resources and advocating for quality, affordable health care.

Assembly District 30

Democratic retired public school educator Kevin Knoke is challenging Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls, who won by 8.5 percentage points in 2024, while Trump carried the district by 4.5 percentage points. 

Zimmerman, who has held the district for nearly a decade, is campaigning to reduce income taxes, connect education centers with businesses and protect Wisconsin’s natural resources. In 2023, Zimmerman introduced legislation granting data centers an exemption from the 5% state sales tax and local sales tax for purchases involved in their construction and equipment, which received extensive lobbying support from Microsoft, We Energies and Alliant Energy.

Zimmerman has also faced criticism for missing more than 225 votes and a quarter of the Assembly’s floor sessions in the 2025-26 legislative session. In an Oct. 14 candidate forum, Zimmerman noted personal family matters that have impacted his attendance, including the passing of his nephew in early 2025, his 3-year-old grandchild being diagnosed with a rare genetic condition and an older parent battling cancer. 

Knoke offered condolences to Zimmerman and his family, but noted there are people in the 30th District facing similar familial concerns who can’t take time off work.

Knoke’s priorities include expanding affordable housing, ensuring access to affordable health care and increasing funding for public schools.

Assembly District 51

State Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville, has long held one of the five Assembly districts that Harris won in 2024. In 2026, Novak faces challenges from Democrat Ben Gruber, a conservation warden from Arena, and American Solidarity Party candidate Nathan Tataje, a personal trainer also from Arena. 

Novak, the former mayor of Dodgeville, was first elected to the Assembly in 2014 and has often won close elections. Except for a 12-point win in 2022, the rest of Novak’s victory margins have come within five percentage points over Democratic opponents. In 2024, he outperformed both Harris and Baldwin, who both won the district. 

Novak was among a group of Assembly Republicans earlier this year who lobbied Speaker Robin Vos to allow votes on a bill to expand postpartum Medicaid for new Wisconsin mothers and Gail’s Law, the bill that required insurance companies to cover additional screenings for women at increased risk of breast cancer. 

While Gruber has no elected experience, he is no stranger to state government. Gruber is among the plaintiffs in the case pending before the Wisconsin Supreme Court that seeks to restore collective bargaining rights for public employees that were eliminated under Act 10. He also was among plaintiffs in a case before the Wisconsin Employment Relations Commission, which found the state Department of Natural Resources retaliated against members of the conservation warden’s labor union.

Assembly District 53

Three candidates are competing for an open seat after Republican state Rep. Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, chose not to run for reelection. Both Harris and Baldwin won the district in 2024. 

The candidates in the race include Republican business owner David Daniels, Democratic teacher Becky Nichols and independent candidate Rachael Dowling, a Winnebago County Board member.

Daniels and Nichols have said the top issue is affordability, although Daniels has focused more on reducing property taxes and returning the state surplus to taxpayers while Nichols has pointed to increasing funding for public schools to lower property taxes and providing more options to access health care. One of Dowling’s top issues is the “threat” of data centers and how they might increase electricity demand and costs across the state.

Assembly District 61

State Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, faces a challenge this year from Greendale veteran Ben Brist. 

Donovan was first elected to the Assembly in 2022 after serving two decades on the Milwaukee Common Council. He won his 2024 reelection campaign by just over 3 percentage points. At the same time, both Harris and Baldwin won in the suburban Milwaukee County district. 

In the Assembly, Donovan was among a group of vulnerable Republicans who at the end of the legislative session rallied GOP lawmakers to support a bill to expand postpartum Medicaid for new Wisconsin mothers and Gail’s Law, the bill that required insurance companies to cover additional cancer screenings for women at increased risk of breast cancer. 

Brist has campaigned on addressing cost of living increases and changing the public school funding formula so that fewer districts need to turn to taxpayers through referendums. He also is in favor of a statewide moratorium on data centers so the state can establish a “proper regulatory framework.”

Assembly District 85

State Rep. Patrick Snyder, R-Weston, faces a challenge from Democrat John Kroll, a former member of the Marathon County Board who works in the energy efficiency industry. In 2024, both Trump and Baldwin won in the district, which Snyder carried by 6.5 points. 

Snyder was first elected to the Assembly in 2016. He chairs the Assembly Committee on Children and Families and led the Speaker’s Task Force on Elder Services, which produced a bill Snyder authored and was signed into law to increase protections against scams for individuals using cryptocurrency kiosks. Snyder also was the Assembly author of the bipartisan legislation that expanded postpartum Medicaid for new mothers in Wisconsin. 

Kroll has run on issues such as expanding career and technical education in schools and increasing energy production in Wisconsin in an effort to lower costs.

Assembly District 88

Republican incumbent Rep. Ben Franklin, R-De Pere, faces a challenge from Democrat Brandy Tollefson, an accounting manager and De Pere School Board treasurer.

Franklin was elected to the Assembly in 2024 and won the De Pere district by less than 1 percentage point. However, Harris won the district the same year, also by less than 1 point. 

Franklin serves on the Corrections, Criminal Justice and Public Safety, Jobs and Economy committees and is the vice chair of the Veterans and Military Affairs Committee. He’s also on the Speaker’s Task Force on Protecting Kids and wants to position the state as a national and global leader for energy technology, touting the nuclear fusion tax break bill that was signed into law. He also highlighted his passed legislation that gave more money to veteran homelessness services, as well as legislation that raised the age limit of recorded statements in court. 

Tollefson is running on expanding BadgerCare, raising the state special education reimbursement rate — currently at 35% — to 60%, ending the statewide private school voucher program and building affordable housing.

Assembly District 89

State Rep. Ryan Spaude, D-Ashwaubenon, faces a challenge from Republican Bobby Lindsey, a criminal justice instructor and retired Milwaukee police officer. 

Spaude flipped the district under new maps in 2024 after more than two decades of Republican control, defeating his opponent by about 3 percentage points. Harris won the district by 2 points. 

Spaude serves on the Criminal Justice and Public Safety, Judiciary and Tourism committees, and he is running on raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, ending the statewide private school voucher program and regulating data centers. Lindsey, a Marine veteran, supports repealing Evers’ 400-year school funding increase, holding insurance and pharmaceutical companies accountable and using the state’s budget surplus to fund infrastructure, public schools, public safety and some kind of tax rebate or reduction.

Assembly District 94

Rep. Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska, faces a challenge from Republican Army veteran Keith Purnell.

Doyle has served in the Assembly since 2011 and won the district in 2024 by 1 percentage point, even as Trump won the district that year by 2 points.

Doyle is currently on the Commerce, Criminal Justice and Public Safety, Financial Institutions and Insurance committees. He is also the vice chair of the Speaker’s Task Force on Elder Services, and he supports keeping family farmers competitive, a data center moratorium, expanded BadgerCare and lowering income and property taxes. Doyle was one of the few Democrats in the Legislature to vote in favor of the failed deal to use the state’s $3 billion surplus to lower taxes and increase special education funding earlier this year.

Purnell emphasizes cracking down on drug and human trafficking, parental transparency in the classroom, eliminating fraud and supporting emergency services like law enforcement, fire and EMS.

Here are the 14 Wisconsin districts that will decide which party controls the Legislature is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 8 minutes

For 26 years, Wisconsin’s Driftless Area was represented in Congress by a moderate Democrat. Through multiple presidencies, including President Donald Trump’s first administration, Ron Kind was considered to be one of the most bipartisan House members and was easily reelected.

Now the 3rd Congressional District is one of the biggest battlegrounds in the nation. 

Republican U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden was first elected in 2022 after Kind retired and has held the seat since. He’s now seeking a third term. 

Van Orden has shown a fiery reputation in Congress, faced some controversies and been an ardent Trump supporter. But this will be his first election as an incumbent where the odds aren’t in the GOP’s favor, particularly with Trump’s approval rating polling at a historic low. Despite that, Van Orden has continued to align with the president throughout his reelection campaign. 

Democrats, after losing the House in 2022, are heavily targeting the district. In a rematch, Democrat Rebecca Cooke is challenging Van Orden for the seat after losing by 3 points last election. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put the 3rd District, along with the 1st in southeastern Wisconsin, on its “Red to Blue” list. The program provides candidates with organizational and fundraising support.

Kind, who has endorsed Cooke, told Wisconsin Watch he believes Van Orden “can’t afford to have any degree of separation” from Trump because the president is a large part of his political success. But in the current political climate, that could also be a liability for the 26-year Navy veteran.

“People are beginning to realize what this guy is all about back home and the fact that he’s not making their lives any easier by supporting the president’s policies,” Kind said.

Kind won some of his last few elections by substantial margins, winning by 13 points in 2014, unopposed in 2016 and almost 20 percentage points in 2018. In 2020, though, Kind defeated Van Orden by less than 3 points. In 2022, national Democrats weren’t targeting the open seat and canceled its ad spending for the district, according to WPR. That year, Van Orden defeated state Sen. Brad Pfaff by just under 4 percentage points.

Democratic polls show Cooke ahead of Van Orden by up to 4 points. A Republican poll in September showed Van Orden leading by 5 points. 

University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky said GOP candidates faced a strategic choice with their campaigns this year.

“Are they going to double down on Trumpism in a bid to motivate the president’s supporters, or are they going to try to open up some daylight between them and the president?” Chergosky said. 

Van Orden’s strategy of sticking with Trump, Chergosky said, is likely a move to lean into the president’s heavy supporters to carry him to reelection. He said many voters were highly motivated in 2016, 2020 and 2024 simply because Trump’s name was on the ballot, but those same voters didn’t turn out as much when Trump wasn’t on the ballot. Over 95,000 more votes were cast in the race for the 3rd Congressional District in the 2024 presidential election than in the 2022 midterm.

The district voted for Trump all three times he ran, even when Kind won in 2016 and 2020, so Van Orden’s presidential ties might help bring out those voters again.

“There’s something that’s sorely lacking in this political business and it’s loyalty,” Van Orden told The Associated Press before the GOP midterm convention in August. “I think we’d be a lot better off if we were more loyal to our fellow Americans to begin with.”

Van Orden’s campaign spokesperson did not respond to requests for an interview for this story.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, one of the most liberal members of the Senate who won Wisconsin’s Democratic presidential primary in 2016, joined Cooke at a rally in Eau Claire on Sunday.

“In my view, this is the most important midterm election in the modern history of our country,” Sanders said. “What Rebecca’s race is about and the reason that I am here is that the time is long overdue for us to hold the most dangerous president in the history of the United States accountable.”

He applauded Cooke for her working class background as a waitress and emphasized the importance of that representation in Congress.

Candidates take starkly different positions on issues

Van Orden and Cooke overlap on few issues that have been part of Trump’s first term. Those differences were clear when they met Oct. 20 for their first and only debate and sparred over the economy, immigration, health care and the war in Iran.

Cooke said she would not have supported Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and criticized it for giving “billionaires tax breaks and tax credits.” The tax incentives on average benefited higher earners rather than lower earners, according to the Tax Policy Center. 

“Big corporations and the ultra wealthy should be paying their fair share of taxes,” Cooke said. 

Van Orden touted the act and how its changes led to an influx of revenue for BadgerCare, the state’s form of Medicaid. The act, however, made $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid overall through mandatory work requirements for able-bodied adults and tighter caps on provider taxes.

He also criticized Cooke for not condemning unauthorized immigrants who commit violent crimes. She said they should be deported and the border should be secure. She also said she does not support sanctuary cities, but affirmed that there should be a “clear pathway to citizenship” and acknowledged immigrant contributions to the workforce.

According to an April 2023 study by the University of Wisconsin-Madison School for Workers, unauthorized immigrants alone make up an estimated 46% to 70% of the dairy farmers in the state. Van Orden has emphasized in his campaign his support for Trump’s immigration policies, which have emphasized large-scale deportations and rolling back authorized immigration.

Cooke said one of the first things she would like to see in Congress is ending the war in Iran, which Van Orden has voted against ending. While he said he does not inherently want to be at war, he said it’s the only way “radical Muslim mullahs” will listen.

“I know about war. I spent my entire adult life either training for war, training others for war or a war myself. I do not want our country to be involved in war,” Van Orden said. “We tried diplomacy. We tried sanctions, upped them again and again and again, and these radical muslim mullahs don’t respond to that … they only respond to this horrible thing that is war.”

Van Orden currently sits on the Agriculture, Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs committees. Since his election to Congress, he has introduced and passed veteran-forward legislation, like aiming to help veterans avoid foreclosure. He has also co-sponsored passed laws like providing whole milk in schools, expanding autism and developmental disability programs and allowing for hunting programs in schools.

Cooke, a waitress and former political consultant, wants to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, address teacher shortages with pay increases and signing bonuses, change the school funding formula to give more funding to low-income districts and double Pell college grants for low- to moderate-income families. She also advocates for expanding Medicare to dental, hearing and vision coverage and protecting abortion rights.

One of the few issues that Van Orden and Cooke seem to agree on is supporting agriculture and dairy farms. Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District ranked 17th in the nation in 2022 for most farm producers at 31,470. Both Van Orden and Cooke have promised to support the state’s agriculture system and dairy farms. Cooke wants to ensure tax incentives and subsidies for small farms, expand export markets and fight big agriculture to support small farmers. 

As for data centers, Van Orden wants local communities to decide on new developments and to protect farmland and water resources. He has co-sponsored the bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act, which would ensure ratepayers aren’t forced to pay new energy bills required by large data centers. Cooke wants a moratorium on new developments and to end the tax breaks given to data centers, but data center laws are largely up to state and local governments.

National polarization and negativity

Similar to their first matchup two years ago, Van Orden and Cooke continue their heated rivalry in the high-stakes election. Van Orden has posted AI-generated fake videos of Cooke on social media, making it seem like she was saying she was the “anointed one” and that voters will “comply” and vote for her. She sent him a cease-and-desist letter in September and boosted a citizen complaint filed Oct. 22 with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission.

Cooke told Wisconsin Watch the district is looking for a “representative that’s rooted in reality” and focused on issues rather than making these deepfakes. She called for more AI regulation for campaigns in the future.

Chergosky said it’s unclear how the AI deepfake issue will play out and what voters think about this new territory.

Van Orden and Cooke also have been trying to undercut each other’s authenticity in their campaigns. Van Orden has slammed Cooke for portraying herself as a political outsider while working as a Democratic fundraiser and political consultant for controversy-courting Minocqua Brewing Company owner Kirk Bangstad. She also has worked with the center-left think tank Third Way. 

Van Orden also has found himself in controversies throughout the years, including inflammatory social media posts and his presence in Washington during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. In 2023 he scolded teenage Senate pages and in 2021 accosted a Prairie du Chien library worker over an LGBTQ+ book display.

Cooke blasted how Van Orden has never held an in-person town hall throughout his time in Congress, as well as his support for Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran. 

“His devotion to this administration is greater than his devotion to people in this district,” Cooke said. “I think it’s a mistake on his part, but it’s like a blind loyalty that he has to the president.”

Kind said Van Orden has “insulated” himself from his constituents, and Pfaff told Wisconsin Watch that Van Orden has been at the “beck and call” of the White House and has “never had any original thought.”

“I do not believe he has a vision,” Pfaff said. “I don’t believe, deep down, he has a fundamental understanding of what this district is, who the people are in this district and what it would take in order to work the public, private effort in order to continue to move this area forward.”

Kind was noted for being one of the more bipartisan members of Congress, ranking 17th most bipartisan in the House in his last congressional session, according to The Lugar Center’s bipartisanship index.

Van Orden ranked 138th most bipartisan in his first year in office and the second-most bipartisan House member representing Wisconsin, behind former Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher at 33rd. The least bipartisan from Wisconsin was Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is now running for governor, in 379th place.

What’s different this year?

Given the rematch, 2024 and 2026 look very similar. Both years, the district was heavily targeted and categorized a toss-up, but one thing remains largely different: It’s not a “Trump year.”

This is the first year since 2020, when Van Orden lost and Joe Biden narrowly won the state, when he is running in a likely poor year for Republicans. In 2022, Democrats controlled the White House — historically the president’s party has fared worse in midterms. In 2024, Trump narrowly won Wisconsin. Now, with a Republican president, Democrats are favored to flip some seats and take back Congress.

Whichever party comes out of November with control of Congress will “profoundly influence the final two years of Trump’s presidency,” Chergosky said.

“In 2022, it was about Republicans trying to gain control of Congress. In 2024, Republicans were trying to retain control,” Chergosky said, “and now, Democrats are trying to get it back … this could be one of the decisive seats in a high-stakes race for Congress.”

In western Wisconsin, Democrats seek to flip what was once one of the most moderate congressional districts is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 9 minutes

As TV monitors at a primary night watch party showed state Rep. Francesca Hong leading the Democratic race for governor in Dane County, the crowd erupted in cheers.

But this wasn’t Hong’s event in Madison. It was the party for Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany at the Rustic Manor wedding barn in Hartland.

Attendees saw a Hong victory as a path to take back the governor’s office, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has blocked conservative bills for nearly eight years. In recent weeks, Tiffany and fellow Republicans attacked Hong over past social media posts, including calls to abolish the U.S. Senate, defund police and cancel Thanksgiving. They saw the posts as signs Hong would be a weak general election opponent. 

“We’re hoping that Hong will win the primaries because what she says is just outright insanity,” 19-year-old Tiffany campaign worker Ellie Guida said. 

Instead, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley eked out a comeback victory to win the Democratic nomination. 

And now a new poll shows why Republicans have reason to worry.

Crowley led Tiffany 48% to 44% in a new Badger Battleground Poll conducted Aug. 12 and 13 by Platform Communications. Crowley also led 42% to 30% among independents and 54% to 35% in competitive Assembly districts. 

Tiffany was viewed unfavorably by 43% of poll respondents, compared with 26% with an unfavorable view of Crowley, with 31% lacking a solid opinion of Crowley. The margin of error was 4.4 percentage points, and the poll was conducted via landline and cellphone interviews.

Still, even attendees at Crowley’s watch party in Milwaukee raised concerns about whether he can persuade Hong voters to support him in the general election. 

Keith Schmitz, leader of the suburban Milwaukee progressive group Grassroots North Shore, said Hong’s supporters are more likely to back Crowley if Hong strongly endorses him. He expects Democrats to unify around beating Tiffany. 

Crowley’s win reshapes the race for Wisconsin Democrats and Republicans. The three gubernatorial candidates who lost the primary joined top Democrats, including U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan and Attorney General Josh Kaul at a breakfast Wednesday in Middleton with Crowley and Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Godlewski in a show of unity. 

Tiffany began a “Common-Sense Leadership Tour” in Green Bay Wednesday with Republican lieutenant governor nominee David Varnam and Attorney General nominee Eric Toney. 

Brandon Scholz, former chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin and now an independent political analyst, highlighted how facing Crowley instead of Hong changes the challenge for Tiffany. He pointed to Crowley being “more measured in his responses and comments,” along with his more moderate positions.

“It will be hard, I think, for Tiffany to do the damage to Crowley that he could have done to Hong,” Scholz said.

Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said he expects Tiffany to portray Crowley as a “far-left liberal who has demonstrated shortcomings in his position in Milwaukee.” 

Right on cue, Tiffany released a statement and ad Wednesday responding to Crowley’s primary win. Tiffany claimed there was no difference between Crowley and “a socialist.” The ad highlighted Milwaukee County budget deficits under Crowley and suggested that portended mismanagement, higher prices and increased taxes if he became governor. 

In response, a Crowley spokesperson said Tiffany was in “meltdown mode” as he prepared to face Crowley. The spokesperson called the attack “a desperate effort to distract from his own extreme record of voting 100% of the time to advance Donald Trump’s extreme MAGA agenda.”

The statement said Crowley lowered property taxes and created new jobs, and criticized Tiffany’s support for Trump’s tariffs and his missed votes on a bipartisan bill aiming to lower housing costs. 

Here is what else we learned from Wisconsin’s partisan primary and how it sets up the road to the Nov. 3 election. 

Undecided voters broke for Crowley

As Crowley looks to unify Democrats, the 40-year-old may need to shore up support among younger voters.

The Marquette Law School Poll showed 66% of voters ages 18 to 29 supported Hong, while election results showed she led in 10 of the 13 counties with University of Wisconsin campuses.

Polling showed Crowley with more support among older voters and people living in rural counties. Crowley led Hong by half a percentage point statewide, but his margin widened to 4 percentage points in rural counties, according to a New York Times analysis. Hong’s lack of spending on broadcast TV ads may have contributed to her weaker performance among older and rural voters. 

The last Marquette Poll before the primary found 34% of Democratic primary voters were undecided — a dynamic Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin said benefited Crowley.

“The fact that so many undecideds apparently coalesce on Crowley is an important lesson that undecideds really can make up their mind in a lopsided way,” Franklin said. 

Older people and moderates likely fueled Crowley’s late surge, according to Franklin. 

Franklin said older voters don’t usually wait to decide, but this year they did, potentially helping Crowley. Older people also vote more than younger people. He also noted how moderate voters were initially undecided, helping Crowley.  

Many people don’t tune in to primaries until a few weeks before voting, Franklin added. He pointed to Evers’ endorsement late in the race. In the last Marquette Poll before the election. 36% of Democratic primary voters said Evers’ endorsement mattered to them. 

“It’s obvious that a lot of those late deciders did go to Crowley, overwhelmingly. It just took them till the last week or so of the campaign to decide to do that, or even on Election Day,” Franklin said. 

The next Marquette Poll is scheduled for release by the end of August. The first Marquette Poll after the 2018 primary showed Evers and incumbent Gov. Scott Walker tied, but Evers went on to win by 1 percentage point. That election came during Trump’s first midterm cycle.

Evers’ job approval rating stood at 51% in a July 22 Marquette Poll, and Franklin said the poll showed Evers remained popular with Democratic primary voters. 

This was the first time in more than 50 years that a sitting Wisconsin governor endorsed a candidate. 

“Governor Evers’ endorsement proved to be the key factor in this election,” Chergosky said. “It’s a great reminder that endorsements can make a huge difference in primary elections.”

Two GOP-endorsed candidates lose statewide races 

The state Republican Party suffered two more setbacks Tuesday as party-endorsed candidates lost statewide races. 

The party endorsed consultant Will Martin — a staffer under former Govs. Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker — for lieutenant governor, but stay-at-home dad and former Lancaster mayor David Varnam secured the Republican nomination by 11 percentage points. 

The party also backed beef farmer and auctioneer Nate Pollnow for secretary of state. He lost to real estate investor Jay Schroeder by more than 20 percentage points. Schroeder said he would make the secretary of state Wisconsin’s chief election official and abolish the Wisconsin Elections Commission — something that would require legislative action. Republicans skeptical of the 2020 election results have rallied against the WEC in recent years, which may explain Schroeder’s appeal among primary voters.

The secretary of state keeps track of enrolled laws, resolutions, official acts, fees, positions and appointments, but generally attracts little notice. 

While both secretary of state candidates aligned with Trump, Schroeder more heavily emphasized his support for Trump’s movement. 

Martin’s lieutenant governor campaign website focused largely on developing energy resources and protecting public safety. Varnam focused on immigration and cutting taxes — issues that ranked as more important among Republican voters surveyed in the Marquette poll earlier this year.

Scholz said the endorsed candidates’ losses raise questions about the state party’s role in elections. 

“Does Wisconsin have a viable state party organization that can contribute?” Scholz asked. “And I’m not talking about getting $9 million of contributions from (billionaire GOP megadonors Richard and Liz) Uihlein and (Diane) Hendricks and then pushing them through to campaigns. That’s not a state party.” 

The state GOP didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Congressional races set

U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden and 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke face each other again in the 3rd Congressional District. 

Cooke lost to Van Orden in 2024 by 3 percentage points. She ran in the Democratic primary for the district in 2022 but lost to state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska. 

Van Orden beat Pfaff to flip the seat in 2022 and has held it for two terms. This year marks the first time Van Orden will run for reelection with a Republican president in office. 

Van Orden first ran for the seat in 2020 and lost by just under 3 percentage points as Democrat Joe Biden carried Wisconsin. In 2022, when Republicans took back the House, Van Orden won by nearly 4 percentage points.

Chergosky said Van Orden, a close Trump ally, must rally MAGA supporters, who can be more difficult to turn out during a midterm election.

“There are many voters who eagerly show up to vote for Trump, but aren’t as excited to vote when he’s not on the ballot,” Chergosky said.

Cooke enters the rematch with higher name recognition and national endorsements from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. She also has outraised Van Orden by $1 million.

The 7th Congressional District, which Tiffany is vacating, will likely stay Republican, Chergosky said. Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, won the Republican nomination.

Backed by Trump, Alfonso defeated runner-up Kevin Hermening, by 22 percentage points.

“His victory shows the power of the Trump endorsement in Republican primaries,” Chergosky said.

Alfonso will face Democratic Rep. Fred Clark.

Republicans have held onto the northern Wisconsin district since 2011 when Duffy was elected. 

Emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman won the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District and will face Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil. Berman defeated the runner up Peter Burgelis by nearly 23 percentage points after Burgelis ended his campaign to endorse Berman in July. 

National Democrats are targeting this seat as they seek to win control of the House. But Steil had more than 35 times the cash on hand as the Democratic primary challengers combined as of July. Chergosky also said Steil has a well-developed brand in his southeastern Wisconsin district, giving him the advantage.

For Berman to defeat Steil, Chergosky said he’ll need to raise money quickly and increase his name recognition. 

Legislative Democrats play it safe

Democrats have a shot at winning control of the Legislature for the first time in 16 years. Doing so would require flipping two Senate seats and five Assembly seats. In three districts Wisconsin Watch monitored, Democratic voters chose familiar faces in the primary.

In the 17th Senate District, Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, will face incumbent Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green. 

Jacobson, endorsed by the State Senate Democratic Committee, won the primary by nearly 30 percentage points over former New Glarus School Board member Corrine Hendrickson, who focused on funding public schools and child care. Jacobson has served in the Assembly since 2022.

Kamala Harris won the district in the 2024 presidential race when Marklein, a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee, was not up for reelection. 

In the 21st Assembly District, Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz defeated David Liners for the Democratic nomination.

Bukiewicz has served as mayor of Oak Creek, which the district encompasses, since 2017. But Republicans have held the seat since 2003. 

Liners ran as a democratic socialist, but he hadn’t previously held office. Bukiewicz benefited from strong name recognition and high-profile endorsements like U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. 

Democratic strategist and former Evers staffer Melissa Baldauff said Democrats want candidates they can trust, rather than unknowns.

“There’s definitely something to be said for voting for a known entity,” Baldauff said. 

Another democratic socialist, Rep. Ryan Clancy, D-Milwaukee, will likely keep his 19th Assembly District seat after defeating the more moderate Bridget Maniaci in the Democratic primary.

Maniaci criticized Clancy for what she said was failed legislation and unleveraged resources. She outraised him by $2,000.

While other democratic socialists, including Liners and Hong, lost their elections, Clancy won by nearly 9 percentage points. Chergosky said it’s because his constituents know his record. 

“In Clancy’s heavily Democratic district, voters may be comfortable supporting an outspoken democratic socialist whose record they already know,” Chergosky said. “In a statewide race for governor, voters may place much greater emphasis on who they believe can defeat the Republican nominee in November.”

Chergosky said each Assembly district is unique, and many are “ideologically homogeneous.” He said voters in an urban, heavily Democratic Assembly district may be more receptive to a candidate like Clancy than voters in a statewide race, where candidates must appeal to urban, suburban and rural voters.

‘A referendum on President Trump’

Democrats cast substantially more primary votes than Republicans, a trend that could shape the outcomes in November, especially as Trump’s approval ratings decline. 

Democrats cast nearly 800,000 votes, compared with nearly 500,000 votes from Republicans. 

Meanwhile, nine Republicans are retiring from the Legislature this election cycle, including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg.

Political science experts have said these retirements come during an expected Democratic surge. Wisconsin’s legislative maps were redrawn in February 2024 after experts described the previous maps as some of the most gerrymandered in the country. In November 2024, Democrats flipped 14 legislative seats.

In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris won Assembly Districts 61, 21 and 51 — three districts Democrats aim to flip this November.

Republicans have held each seat for more than a decade, but the incumbents won by just 3 percentage points in 2024. 

While Assembly Districts 51 and 61 still have incumbents, Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, is retiring from her 21st Assembly District seat. Republican nominee Dylan Pfaffenbach, a Carroll University student, will face Bukiewicz, the more experienced Democrat. 

The party controlling the White House, Chergosky said, notoriously faces headwinds in midterm elections. Tracking Trump’s approval rate will be key to predicting outcomes. The new Platform Communications poll found 30% of respondents had a favorable view and 66% had an unfavorable view of Trump.

“For Democrats, the playbook is clear: Frame this election as a referendum on President Trump,” Chergosky said.

Tom Kertscher and Brittany Carloni contributed reporting.

Poll: Democrat David Crowley opens fall gubernatorial campaign with slight edge over Republican Tom Tiffany  is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 7 minutes

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley completed an unlikely political comeback in Tuesday’s primary election, narrowly winning Wisconsin’s Democratic nomination for governor after Gov. Tony Evers gave him a late endorsement. 

Crowley will face U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November, with President Donald Trump backing the Republican nominee.

The Associated Press declared Crowley the winner at 2:34 a.m. Wednesday, ending a race that remained unsettled deep into the night.

With 98% of the votes tallied, Crowley led Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong by less than half a percentage point —  State Sen. Kelda Roys and former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan trailed far behind with percentages in the single digits. 

Crowley, who served two terms in the Assembly, often highlighted his experience as Milwaukee County executive as the key difference between himself and his primary opponents. He was elected to lead Wisconsin’s most populous county in 2020 and reelected in 2024. On the campaign trail, Crowley pointed to his ability to work with both Democrats and Republicans to help improve lives in Milwaukee County. He frequently highlighted the 2023 shared revenue law that helped Milwaukee County pay off debts from the pension scandal in the early 2000s. 

Crowley’s revived campaign drew criticism from people who saw his return to the race as efforts by establishment Democrats to stop more progressive candidates, like Hong. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who had been Hong’s closest competition in polls before he dropped out of the race in July, at the only televised debate called Crowley “revived by special interests.” 

Crowley in recent campaign stops has dismissed the “establishment” label and pointed to his early years growing up in Milwaukee where his parents struggled with mental health issues and addiction and his family faced evictions. 

The 2026 election for governor is an open seat after Evers chose not to run for a third term. It’s the first open governor’s race in the state since 2010 when Gov. Scott Walker ushered in a conservative era during which Republicans dismantled public sector unions, increased pension and health insurance contributions for public employees, cut taxes and enacted gerrymandered legislative maps.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state Legislature for the first time in 16 years after flipping the state Supreme Court to a liberal majority and enacting bipartisan legislative maps. But even with a legislative majority, the ability to enact Democratic legislation would still run through the governor’s office.

Hong, a democratic socialist, led in the polls for months, and her primary victory seemed all but assured heading into Tuesday. But the close race mirrored a similar battle between establishment Democrats and left-wing activists in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary. Polls showed the left-wing candidate with a double-digit lead heading into last week’s primary, but he only won by 1 percentage point.

Hong had led the Democratic field in five Marquette University Law School polls ahead of the primary. Her rise as a front-runner in the race happened alongside significant democratic socialist candidate wins in states like New York and Colorado. 

Hong, though, faced questions from some Democrats over whether she could win in November. Republicans in recent weeks also seized on Hong’s old social media posts on positions such as defunding the police, abolishing the U.S. Senate and canceling Thanksgiving. Hong spent time in national news interviews during the final week of the primary attempting to walk back those past comments.  

A political comeback

Crowley’s strong showing marks a stunning turnaround for a candidate who polled in single digits before he dropped out of the race in early July. Even in the final Marquette Law School Poll before the election, he only mustered 7% support to 38% for Hong, though 34% were undecided.

Crowley initially ended his campaign after he said he saw both poll and fundraising numbers show momentum for Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez. 

But then Rodriguez dropped out of the race after revelations of issues with her campaign finance reports, which led Crowley to return to the race with a historically rare endorsement from Evers. In the final week of the primary, the two-term governor joined Crowley on the campaign trail to champion Crowley as his successor.

At the Atwood Music Hall in Madison on Tuesday night, Hong’s supporters waited for the results as the loudspeakers pumped in Stevie Wonder, Spice Girls and Chappell Roan. One Hong staffer estimated that a couple hundred people were in attendance, but didn’t have an official number. Reporters and TV cameras packed the balcony. 

Luca Farmer, a 21-year-old Madison resident, cheered and waved a poster reading “Hotties 4 Hong” as CNN results showed the state representative pulling closer to Crowley around 10 p.m. Tuesday. 

Farmer said he had been following the race since Evers chose not to run for reelection last year. He said he voted for Hong because she is “policy first.” 

But Farmer said he did not anticipate Hong and Crowley were going to be as close as they were Tuesday night. 

“My heart is palpitating,” he said. “I did not think it was going to be this close. I was very confident, but I am still confident that we will win.” 

Around 11:20 p.m., Hong walked onstage to address and thank supporters, who erupted in cheers. She acknowledged that the results were not final, but “the fight continues no matter what.” 

“In 11 weeks, no matter who’s on the ballot, y’all, we are going to fight to win for one another,” Hong said as the crowd started a chant of “we will win.” 

“We will win together, united, because everyone who’s running in this race, they know that we can make better possible, and we must make better possible.” 

At the Hyatt Regency in downtown Milwaukee, at least 250 people were spread among two ballrooms and a reception area. Chatter was loud but, as of 11 p.m., few cheers went up — the vote totals simply remained too tight.

Early in the evening, Noel Morales, a 21-year-old Crowley supporter from suburban Milwaukee, expressed confidence about Crowley’s chances. But he worried whether young Hong supporters would back Crowley if Crowley wins the nomination because Crowley has been cast as an establishment Democrat.

It’s a very big “it depends” on whether Democrats can find unity, he said.

The first sustained cheer at the Crowley gathering went up about 11:15 p.m. when a TV station went live from the party. Minutes later, the party went mostly quiet to listen to remarks made by Hong at her gathering. At that point, Crowley had yet to appear before his supporters. 

At midnight, Milwaukee election officials said “human error” would delay ballot counting. At the Crowley party, just as supporters appeared ready to claim victory, the news was deflating. 

“I’m at a loss for words,” said Crowley supporter Angela Hinton of the Milwaukee suburb of Glendale. “With the votes so close, we were on pins and needles. Now this.”

U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore told the gathering just after midnight that results were 90 minutes away. “It looks very good, but we have to wait,” she said.

Other results

In other primary results Tuesday, Rebecca Cooke won the Democratic nomination in the 3rd Congressional District for a rematch with Republican U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden. The seat is rated a toss-up and one of two that national Democrats are hoping to flip to retake control of the House.

In the other, the 1st Congressional District in southeast Wisconsin, Mitchell Berman won the Democratic nomination to take on U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil.

Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, won the Republican nomination in the 7th Congressional District in northern Wisconsin. The Democratic nomination was too close to call, though the seat being vacated by Tiffany leans Republican.

Nic Cravillion, a staffer for Sen. André Jacque, R-New Franken, won the Republican nomination for the 1st Senate District to replace Jacque after his two terms in the Senate. 

Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, won the Democratic nomination in the 17th Senate District to challenge Sen. Howard Marklein in November. Jacobson is supported by the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, which sees this district as a potential flip opportunity. 

Case manager Ismael Luna beat incumbent Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, D-Milwaukee, by a large margin for the Democratic nomination in the 8th Assembly District. Ortiz-Velez had left the Democratic caucus last year after making a gun-related threat to a fellow Democrat. 

In the 21st Assembly District, Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz won the Democratic nomination and will now face Republican Carroll University student Dylan Pfaffenbach in the general election. The winner will replace Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, who won by a narrow margin in 2024.

Former Sheboygan Ald. John Belanger won the Republican nomination in the 26th Assembly District and will face Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan.

In the 76th Assembly District, Hong’s district, Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford, a former Madison City Council member, won the nomination. She will face Republican Nina Chat in the general election in the solid Democratic district. If elected Martinez-Rutherford would be the first transgender person elected to the Assembly.

David Crowley caps unlikely comeback with win in Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 5 minutes

In the final days before Tuesday’s primary, Wisconsin Democrats are still grappling with who will be their party’s gubernatorial nominee. The stakes couldn’t be higher — the party has a chance to take full control of state government for the first time in 16 years.

The struggle is real: Should they go with a more moderate, establishment-backed candidate with executive experience or a rising progressive popular among young grassroots activists?

Wisconsin Watch traveled to different polling locations and coffee shops around the state to talk with Wisconsin voters about how they’re feeling about the upcoming election.

Kathleen O’Laughlin, a 69-year-old former Milwaukee public school teacher and Souls to the Polls volunteer, said she will likely vote for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley because she thinks he has the best chance at winning in November. 

While O’Laughlin said she supports democratic socialism, she’s not impressed with Madison Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who has steadily grown her lead in polling over the past eight months. 

“I don’t feel like she has the personality,” O’Laughlin said. “I don’t think she has what it takes to represent the party.”

Steven Daw, a 24-year-old retail worker and Milwaukee chapter member of the Democratic Socialists of America, sees Hong as someone who engages people who may not be as in tune with politics.

“She’s made it tangible for people to feel that she can actually improve things,” Daw said. “She has to follow through on that, which comes with the Democrats winning a legislative majority too.”

Democratic primary voters will decide Tuesday on a gubernatorial nominee among four candidates: Hong, Crowley, state Sen. Kelda Roys, D-Madison, and former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan. Roys and Brennan have lagged in polling, while Crowley received a rare endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers, who has been stumping with Crowley for the past week.

Republicans have held a majority in the state Legislature since 2011. The GOP enacted an aggressive conservative agenda, including gerrymandered legislative maps that protected their majority against a Democratic wave election in 2018, when Evers was first elected. Over two terms, Evers mostly moderated the legislative Republican agenda and notched few major Democratic wins. Democrats need to keep all of their current seats as well as flip two Senate and five Assembly seats to gain a majority and then hold on to the governor’s office to enact progressive policies.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is endorsed by the state party and President Donald Trump. Tiffany was elected to the Legislature as part of the 2010 Republican tea party wave and advocated for overturning the 2020 presidential election results.

Crowley leads fundraising among Democratic candidates in recent campaign finance reports with about $463,000 cash on hand. Hong trailed closely with $406,000, while Brennan had about $284,000 and Roys had about $81,000. Tiffany had nearly $5 million on hand, with $4 million coming from the state GOP in July. 

A July 29 Marquette University Law School poll found that 34% of Democratic primary voters were undecided. Hong has grown her polling lead over her opponents throughout the race with strong support among young voters. 

The final Marquette Poll before the primary showed Hong with 38% support among all Democratic primary voters and 66% among ages 18 to 29.

Sophie Cleveland, a 2026 University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate from East Troy, said she aligns more with Hong’s views, and she liked the approach Hong took after a Madison police officer fatally shot Corey Ruiz in July in the legislative district she represents. Hong called the incident an “execution.”

“I appreciate the … working with community members to find a source, not being afraid to speak out about certain issues that matter, but also acting in partnership with the community and not shying away from the ugly,” Cleveland said. 

Alyssa Wisneski, 29, a public school teacher and small business owner from Bay View, said she feels frustrated with the Democratic Party as leaders push for a candidate other than Hong.

“The majority of voters want Francesca Hong,” Wisneski said. “The party itself is trying to get people around a candidate that’s not her. I feel like that’s very frustrating.”

In the last Marquette Poll before the election, Hong held a strong lead with voters 30 to 59 years old. But among voters over 60 she was behind former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who dropped out two weeks ago.

Hong has received backlash from Republicans as old social media posts have resurfaced in which she voiced support for canceling Thanksgiving and abolishing the U.S. Senate. In the final weeks of the primary campaign she has made multiple national media appearances on CNN, Fox News and Politico defending herself for those comments. 

Some Democrats have criticized Hong’s response, with Evers saying during recent campaign stops with Crowley that Hong has spent more time dealing with what she posted on social media than focusing on issues. 

Crowley’s support is stronger among older voters. He polled at 4% among 18 to 29 year olds, but 9% with voters 45 and older.

Gary, in his mid-70s, who declined to give his last name, said he wished the Democratic primary hadn’t been as “congested” with all the seven original candidates still on the ballot. He said Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez was his first choice before she dropped out. 

He said while Hong “talks about some good things,” he doesn’t think she can win over northern Wisconsin. 

“I’m sure the Republicans are gonna be happy if she gets it,” Gary said.

The Marquette Poll shows Tiffany leading Hong in the general election by 3 percentage points, though among those who say they are certain to vote in November, the two are tied.

While several Democratic voters said they were upset Evers endorsed Crowley, Gary said it didn’t bother him because he believes Crowley can beat Tiffany in November. He hopes the next governor can work across the aisle, but he’s skeptical Tiffany would do that.

“You need somebody that’s got to compromise,” Gary said. “I think the guy from Milwaukee has a good shot at doing that.”

Michelle Novak, who’s in her late 50s from Delafield, said she’s “not jazzed about the candidates,” but likes that the Democrats have been given more options and can have a “real primary.” She said she doesn’t define herself within a party, but does look into people’s positions and voting records. 

She noted her pro-life stance, which typically aligns with the Republican Party, but she said she’s not happy with there being so few options in the Republican primary.

“We’re in a place right now where I just feel like we have to hear people, and the more people that enter into a debate or into a conversation, politically, is better,” Novak said. “I feel like it’s the party’s responsibility to bring people into more of a discussion.”

While Roys and Brennan have trailed behind their primary opponents in polling, their supporters are bucking Evers’ call to rally behind one alternative to Hong. 

Jill Kessenich, a 63-year-old artist from Fort Atkinson, said she feels “discombobulated” with the state of the Democratic primary. 

Crowley had originally caught Kessenich’s eye, but after watching the July 28 debate hosted by WISN, she said she will likely vote for Roys. She said Crowley didn’t do as well in the debate, while Roys’ performance, on the other hand, impressed her, and she said Roys has the right experience to be governor.

Robert Schroeder, 67, doesn’t know if Brennan stands a chance in the primary, but said he will likely vote for him. He did note that his vote was still “up for grabs,” but also said he thinks Brennan stands out to him and is a “common sense, get things done kind of guy.”

He mentioned that he likes Crowley, but it might be difficult for a Milwaukee Democrat to win. He also said Hong’s stance as a democratic socialist likely won’t win over Wisconsin.

“(Hong) is in her moment,” Schroeder said. “Here in Wisconsin, I don’t think it’s gonna sell.”

In the final days of Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary, Democratic voters are still split is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Wisconsin: It’s time to winnow the field. 

Tuesday is the state’s partisan primary election, where voters will choose the candidates to represent the major political parties during the general election this November. 

There are important races up and down the ballot on Tuesday, but the top contest is Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Seven names will appear on the ballot, but only four are still running for the party’s nomination after a chaotic summer that saw multiple candidates drop out of the race, a historically rare endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and increased momentum for Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist.

Depending on which party voters choose as they cast ballots on Tuesday, there are also competitive primaries for the state’s congressional districts and legislative seats. The stakes of those races are high as Democrats and Republicans battle for majorities both in Washington, D.C., and at the Capitol in Madison this November. 

Under Wisconsin’s open primary system, primary voters must select a party and then may only vote for candidates running from that party. So if a voter chooses “Republican Party,” that person can’t vote in the Democratic primary for governor, and if a voter chooses “Democratic Party,” that person can’t vote in the Republican primary for the 7th Congressional District. A voter doesn’t need to be a member of the party to vote in that primary, and a selection does not commit a person to joining that party or voting for that candidate in the November general election. Ballots are secret so which party a voter chooses is not publicly disclosed.

As of Friday, the Wisconsin Elections Commission reported more than 234,000 people voted early in person or by mail. In 2022, about 295,000 people voted early when the top races were the Democratic U.S. Senate primary and the Republican gubernatorial primary. Remember: If you already voted, you are not able to spoil your ballot and cast a new one.

Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. on Tuesday. You can find out what’s on your ballot, the location of your polling place and more at myvote.wi.gov. Voters must show a valid photo ID and can register at the polls on Election Day with proof of residency. 

Wisconsin gubernatorial primaries 

At the start of the year, the Democratic gubernatorial primary was a sleepy seven-candidate contest. That rapidly changed over the past month.

Former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out of the race in mid-July following revelations of issues with her campaign finance reports. Rodriguez’s exit led Crowley to restart his campaign with Evers’ endorsement and an effort to position himself as the moderate alternative to Hong. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who was Hong’s closest competition in multiple polls, left the race in late July. 

The remaining Democrats include former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan, Crowley, Hong and Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys. Brennan and Roys have struggled to garner more than single-digit support in the polls despite Brennan pitching himself as a continuation of the moderate Evers era and Roys’ endorsement from the state’s largest teachers union.

The winner of the Democratic primary will take on the GOP nominee. The Republican primary features U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and 27-year-old medical service technician Andy Manske. Tiffany, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump and the Republican Party of Wisconsin, is expected to cruise to a win Tuesday. Tiffany has nearly $5 million cash on hand, as of late July, far exceeding Manske’s $1,600. 

Congressional primaries

Republicans took control of the U.S. House in 2022 and currently hold six of Wisconsin’s eight seats. Democrats, as they try to take back the chamber, are targeting Wisconsin’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts.

Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil has held the 1st District since 2018. The three Democrats vying to unseat Steil are ER nurse Mitchell Berman, Navy veteran Lorenzo Santos and Whitewater Unified School Board Vice President Miguel Aranda. Milwaukee Ald. Peter Burgelis will be on the ballot Tuesday, but ended his campaign in July. 

In the 3rd District in western Wisconsin, Republican U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden is running for a third term. 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke and former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge are competing in the Democratic primary. Political science experts rate the district a toss-up.

The 7th District in northern Wisconsin features a heavily contested Republican primary as U.S Rep. Tom Tiffany leaves the seat to run for governor. The Republican candidates include Wausau financial adviser Kevin Hermening, Chippewa County factory worker Jessi Ebben, Crescent business owner Niina Baum, Superior contractor Don Raihala, and Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of former congressman and current U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. Alfonso is endorsed by Trump.

Legislative primaries

Democrats are seeking to take control of both chambers of the Legislature this midterm cycle, needing to flip two Senate seats and five Assembly seats to secure majorities. The party is using momentum from new legislative maps two years ago that officially ended a decade-plus Republican gerrymander and allowed them to flip 14 legislative seats in 2024. 

There are three Senate district primaries we’re watching Tuesday. 

The 1st Senate District, covering the Door County peninsula, features four Republicans competing to succeed Sen. André Jacque, R-New Franken, who is not seeking reelection. Barbara Bittner, Jacob VandenPlas, Katie Baney and Nic Cravillion will compete for a place on the November ballot against independent candidate Mark Becker. 

The 17th Senate District has long been a target for Senate Democrats. Sen. Howard Marklein, a co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee, is running for a fourth four-year term. Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, Lisa White and Corrine Hendrickson will face off in the Democratic primary. The Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, which is supporting Jacobson, considers the seat a flip opportunity in 2026. 

Two former state representatives, Erik Severson and Angie Sapik, are competing in the Republican primary for the 25th Senate District to determine who will face Democrat Charly Ray in the general election for an open seat left vacant by redistricting. 

In the Assembly on Tuesday, David Liners and Daniel J. Bukiewicz will face off in the Democratic primary for the 21st Assembly District to replace Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, who is not seeking reelection. The primary winner will face Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach. 

Three Republicans — Tyler Schneekloth, John Belanger and James Brotz — will compete in the Republican primary to unseat freshman Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan, who flipped the 26th District back in 2024. 

Democrats Brian Bock, Ben Brist and Lawanda Chambers will face off in the August primary to challenge two-term incumbent Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, in the 61st District — a district targeted by Democrats for control of the Assembly. 

There is also competition for safe Democratic seats in Milwaukee and Madison. Rep. Ryan Clancy, D-Milwaukee, and Bridget Maniaci will compete for a place on the November ballot in the 19th Assembly District. Clancy hails from the socialist wing of the party, and Maniaci is a former Madison City Council member. The winner faces Republican Yasmine Outlaw. 

Assembly District 76 features five Democrats — Isaia Ben-Ami, Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford, Juliana Bennett, Zoe Sullivan and Tony Castañeda — after Hong opted to run for governor. The winner faces Republican Nina Chat in the general election.

State office primaries

Depending on which party they select, voters will have the opportunity to pick candidates for certain statewide offices. 

Republican primary voters can choose between Will Martin, a Racine consultant, and David Varnam, a Lancaster stay-at-home dad, in the race for lieutenant governor. Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski is the only Democrat running for lieutenant governor. The winning candidates will form a joint ticket with the party’s gubernatorial nominee this November. 

They can also choose their nominee in the four-person GOP primary for secretary of state. The candidates include Braden Myer, Jay Schroeder, Nate Pollnow and Cindy Werner. The winner will face Milwaukee Ald. JoCasta Zamarripa, who is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Democratic primary voters will determine whether Dylan Helmenstine, of Black Earth, or Yee Leng Xiong, of Wausau, will be the party’s nominee for state treasurer in November. The winner will take on first-term Republican incumbent Treasurer John Leiber in November.

Republican attorney general candidate Eric Toney and two-term Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul are both unopposed in the primary.

Other local elections

Voters on Tuesday can also make decisions in local races, including sheriff and clerk of court contests in counties across the state. 

For more information about specific local races on your ballot, visit myvote.wi.gov.

For more information on statewide and legislative candidates, check out the Wisconsin Watch voter guide.

Wisconsin’s partisan primary election is Tuesday. Learn more about who’s on your ballot. is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 5 minutes

As early voting starts next week in the Aug. 11 primary to determine who will be on the November ballot, Democrats hope to flip two U.S. House seats in Wisconsin.

Republicans took control of the House in 2022 and currently hold six of Wisconsin’s eight seats. The primaries feature several political newcomers and could offer insight into which wings of each party are exerting the most influence.

Here are the four House primaries we are watching in August:

Congressional District 1

Democrats are targeting this district to unseat four-term U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, who defeated Democratic challenger Peter Barca in 2024 by 10 percentage points. Barca wasn’t new to Wisconsin politics, having served in Congress and the state Assembly as minority leader. He also served as secretary of the state Department of Revenue before his 2024 run.

“On paper, it’s a competitive district,” said Barry Burden, University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center. “The trouble is Steil is a really formidable incumbent.”

Because Steil, who succeeded former House Speaker Paul Ryan in 2019, has a fundraising advantage and is not a controversial figure, Burden said this district is much harder to flip regardless of national Democratic efforts. Since the start of his latest term, Steil has raised $3 million, received more than $2 million from other committees and has $6.1 million cash on hand.

ER nurse Mitchell Berman has established a clear edge in the primary. He has received multiple lawmaker endorsements, including Reps. Ann Roe, D-Janesville; Ben DeSmidt, D-Kenosha; and Tip McGuire, D-Kenosha. He recently launched a six-figure ad buy, highlighting his experience as a nurse working with veterans and his campaign on protecting health care and lowering costs. He has raised over $650,000 and has about $220,000 cash on hand.

Milwaukee Ald. Peter Burgelis suspended his campaign after the July 15 campaign finance filing deadline and offered to support Berman. Burgelis’ report showed he had raised just over $54,000 in the most recent quarter. He had been campaigning on lowering costs, making communities safer and defending voting rights.

Lorenzo Santos, a Navy veteran and the former Young Democrats of Wisconsin chair, previously ran for the seat in 2024, but suspended his campaign before the primary. His top priorities include raising the federal minimum wage to $26 by 2030, universal Medicare and supporting veteran mental health services. He has about $10,000. 

Miguel Aranda is the Whitewater Unified School District Board vice president and the associate director of PreCollege Programs at UW-Whitewater. His campaign emphasizes that he is the only Spanish speaker in the race, and his priorities include criminal justice and immigration reform, supporting unions and protecting Medicare. He has more than $13,000 cash on hand.

What we’re watching: In what’s supposed to be a good year for Democrats and a bad year for incumbents, will a relatively unknown Democratic nominee give Steil any trouble?

Congressional District 3

The top Democratic target in Wisconsin is U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden. The 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke and former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge are running in the Democratic primary.

Burden said this is the only congressional district in the state seriously in play for Democrats. 

Van Orden has had a controversial political career after succeeding longtime Democratic moderate Ron Kind. He is known for his incendiary tweets and past clashes such as scolding teenage Senate pages in 2023 and confronting a La Crosse library worker over an LGBTQ+ book display in 2021. He also closely aligns with President Donald Trump, who won Wisconsin in 2024 but has since seen his approval ratings crater.

“He’s in real jeopardy,” Burden said. “This could be a district that Republicans lose.”

Cooke lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than 3 percentage points. Burden said her high-profile endorsements, including U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Bernie Sanders and state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska, give her a leg up in the Aug. 11 primary. Cooke leads in fundraising at nearly $7.5 million in the latest quarter with $2.5 million cash on hand while Van Orden raised $5.2 million with $4.7 million in the bank.

Cooke has faced criticism for portraying herself as a political outsider while working as a Democratic fundraiser and as a political consultant for controversy-courting Minocqua Brewing Company owner Kirk Bangstad. She has more recently worked with the center-left think tank Third Way.

Her biggest campaign priorities include expanding Medicare, supporting farmers and lowering costs for working families. 

Berge is running for the seat for the first time. She has received endorsements from legislators including state Sen. Jeff Smith, D-Brunswick, and state Rep. Tara Johnson, D-town of Shelby. She touts her prior elected experience and supports universal health care and affordable housing. Berge has raised $686,000.

What we’re watching: What will Democratic turnout in the August primary tell us about Van Orden’s chances compared with 2024?

Congressional District 7

This far northern Wisconsin district has two loaded primaries as U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany wraps up three terms in Congress to run for governor. Five Republicans are vying to keep the seat red while three Democrats make their bids in what will likely remain a safe Republican district.

Wausau financial adviser Kevin Hermening, Chippewa County factory worker Jessi Ebben, Crescent business owner Niina Baum, Superior contractor Don Raihala, and Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of former congressman and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, are competing in the Republican primary. 

Alfonso leads the fundraising race at $1.25 million, with Ebben trailing behind with just over $460,000.

Hermening, a Marine veteran, has raised $103,000 for his campaign but also gave himself a $1 million loan. He is endorsed by lawmakers including state Sen. Romaine Quinn, R-Birchwood, and state Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield. His top campaign issues include protecting Social Security and Medicare and supporting veterans.

Raihala said some of the biggest issues constituents have in the district are illegal immigration and the Jeffrey Epstein files, and he said he would continue to support deportations of immigrants lacking permanent legal status and the full release of the files.

Baum holds a more moderate view of immigration, saying that while she supports border security, she says immigrants are essential in Wisconsin and wants to create a “functional legal pathway” for workers. She also supports a data center moratorium and wants to uplift Wisconsin farmers. Baum has raised about $6,000.

Similar to Raihala, Ebben holds border security high on her priority list, as well as pro-life values, Second Amendment rights and strengthening rural communities. She also emphasizes her intense support for Trump, though she did not receive his endorsement for her campaign.

Trump’s endorsement went early in the race to Alfonso, 26, who also received endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and four of the six Wisconsin Republican congressional incumbents. His top priorities include states’ rights, pro-life values and supporting school choice.

Burden said the Trump endorsement might not be enough to pull Alfonso through.

“Alfonso has these other liabilities,” Burden said. “His youth and inexperience are serious. He’s just old enough to serve in Congress and really has not had any experience being employed or working in party politics in any meaningful way.” 

The wealthy Republican Uihlein family split their donations in this district. Richard Uihlein donated to Alfonso’s campaign and gave $1 million to a PAC supporting him. But his wife, Elizabeth Uihlein, donated to Ebben’s campaign and gave $1 million to a PAC supporting her. Burden said this highlights the divide among party insiders whether to follow Trump’s lead or not.

What we’re watching: Is Trump’s endorsement enough to override concerns about inexperience and nepotism in northern Wisconsin?

Congressional District 8

Three Democratic newcomers are competing to unseat freshman U.S. Rep. Tony Wied, who won by about 15 percentage points against obstetrician-gynecologist Kristin Lyerly in 2024, in this solid Republican Green Bay area district. 

Mark Scheffler, a retired business owner, heavily campaigns on the idea of a “sustainable society,” which includes affordable health care, privacy rights and economic prosperity. He also prioritizes conservation and protecting the environment. Scheffler has raised just over $107,000, compared to Wied’s $1 million haul.

Rick Crosson is an Army veteran from Green Bay. His campaign says he wants to reform the Department of Veterans Affairs for more timely and quality treatment, fighting agriculture corporations to support small farmers and supporting rural reproductive health care. He has raised just over $63,000.

Democratic Socialist Katrina deVille, a transgender woman, advocates for a $22 federal minimum wage, universal health care and free child care. She also says she wants to file articles of impeachment against Trump on her first day if elected. She has raised just under $3,000.

What we’re watching: Can Democrats mount a credible challenge in northeast Wisconsin in what could be a blue wave year?

Here are four congressional races to watch in Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 primary is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: 9 minutes

The upcoming Wisconsin midterms could shift the balance of power in the state Legislature, and the August primaries will determine which candidates voters want to see on the November general election ballot. 

Democrats are aiming to flip both the Assembly and Senate in hopes of securing a trifecta in the state government. The party must flip two of the four competitive Senate seats to win a majority. The Assembly is a larger challenge as Democrats must flip five seats to claim a majority for the first time in 16 years.

The 2024 election was the first election under new legislative maps, which ended a Republican gerrymander that had been in place since 2011. Democrats flipped 14 legislative seats. 

Those results provide some insight for the upcoming elections. Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center, said Democrats have an advantage in the 2026 Senate races, which are the first contested since the new maps took effect. Senate terms are for four years, and the even-numbered Senate districts on the ballot in 2024 were more favorable to Republicans, yet Democrats still flipped four seats. 

“This year is different because Trump is not on the ballot, the national environment is helping their party more and the odd-numbered districts — which are up this year — are just gonna be tougher for Republicans,” Burden said.

Winning the Assembly will likely be more difficult for Democrats. Burden said the Assembly has a lot of Republican incumbents and not many competitive districts. However, he pointed to the nine Republican retirements in this election cycle, including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, none of whom are running for another office. 

“It looks like some Republican officeholders have realized this is going to be a tough year for them and they would prefer not to go through a difficult campaign and potentially lose their own seat and maybe lose the majority in the Assembly,” Burden said. 

Three Assembly Democrats are also not seeking reelection, though all are running for higher office. 

While Burden said the Assembly is “genuinely up for grabs,” he concluded Republicans still hold a slight advantage. 

He also said most of the primaries themselves “are not especially consequential” because most incumbents are not facing primary challengers and contested primaries tend to be in districts that heavily favor a specific party with no chance of flipping. Still, he said these elections remain important because they often determine the eventual winner in these safe Democratic or Republican districts. 

Here are some primaries that we’re watching:

Senate District 1

Four Republicans face off to replace Sen. André Jacque, R-New Franken, after his two terms in the Senate. 

The candidates all campaign on similar issues: affordability, defending constitutional freedoms and supporting agriculture and veterans. But there are some differences.

Current Jacque staffer Nic Cravillion puts protecting the state’s outdoor spaces as a priority. His campaign emphasizes Wisconsin’s hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities, and he says he will support public access and conservation efforts. 

Katie Baney, a director at Delta Defense, prides herself as the only mother in the race. She also highlights her support for school choice and the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ movement, popularized by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 

Barbara Bittner, a farmer from Stockbridge, chairs the Republican Party of Calumet County. She emphasizes what she describes as traditional family values and defending the sanctity of life. But she also supports the Knowles-Nelson Stewardship Program, largely seen as a more Democratic issue after the Republican-controlled Legislature removed funding for the land conservation program from the 2025-27 state budget and it expired last month. 

While each candidate campaigns on veteran support, Jacob VandenPlas, a Sturgeon Bay farmer, marks veteran mental health as one of his key campaign issues. As a veteran who experienced brain trauma and PTSD himself, he founded a program to aid veterans’ recovery and suicide prevention, using farming as a form of therapy.

Cravillion leads in fundraising for this race having collected more than $75,000 since January. Baney raised about $47,000, Bittner raised about $17,000, and VandenPlas raised $1,900.

The winner of the Republican primary will face independent Mark Becker, the former chair of the Republican Party of Brown County. 

What we’re watching: What will this primary tell us about how Republican voters feel about the future of state land conservation efforts?

Senate District 17

Three Democrats are looking to unseat three-term Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee. 

Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, who has served in the Assembly since 2022, has received the State Senate Democratic Committee’s endorsement. She serves on the Assembly’s agriculture committee and has authored numerous bills on farming, one of her top campaign issues. She had about $200,000 on hand as of June 30, compared to Marklein’s $1 million.

Corrine Hendrickson, a child care consultant and former New Glarus School Board member, is advocating for increased public school funding and affordable child care. Hendrickson had about $12,000 on hand.

Lisa White, a small business owner, holds similar policy stances as both Jacobson and Hendrickson. Her campaign emphasizes changing the public school funding system, particularly how heavy funding relies on property taxes. She also says she is a strong advocate for rural health care, conservation and small businesses. White was down to about $800 on hand as of June 30.

What we’re watching: Will the preferred Democratic candidate win the primary as Democrats look to flip a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024?

Senate District 25

Former state Reps. Erik Severson and Angie Sapik will face off in the Republican primary to determine who will replace Sen. Romaine Quinn, who is running in the redrawn 23rd Senate District. The winner faces Democratic Bayfield County Board member Charly Ray in the November election. Democrats are targeting this district to flip the Senate.

Severson, a family medical doctor, served in the Assembly from 2011 to 2015. He describes himself as a strong pro-life, pro-family advocate, and his campaign emphasizes using his medical background to help improve health care in Wisconsin. He is endorsed by Pro-Life Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Family Action PAC, an advocacy group for conservative family values.

Sapik serves on the Douglas County Board and served in the Assembly from 2023 to 2025. She supports the Second Amendment and says less government involvement will give Wisconsinites “more autonomy.” She also wants to lower taxes and repeal a provision Gov. Tony Evers created in state law that increases funding limits for public schools every year for the next 400 years. Sapik has been endorsed by 10 current Republican state representatives, Sen. Cory Tomczyk and a handful of former state representatives.

Burden pointed to this district as an interesting primary to keep an eye on. 

“You’ve got a Republican primary with two candidates who are duking it out to be the nominee there, but also a very credible Democratic candidate who has no primary opposition,” Burden said. “It’s possible the Republicans will sort of go at one another during the primary, and the Democrat will continue to raise money and build his campaign to get ready for whoever he faces.”

Ray has raised about $119,000. Sapik trails close behind having raised about $117,000. Severson raised about $39,000 in the first half of the year.

Burden pointed to how the area, which is in U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s 7th Congressional District, has gotten more Republican under President Donald Trump. However, he said it’s likely to be a competitive race in November. He added that if Democrats win this district, it could indicate that they’re doing well at “the top of the ticket” and the success has “trickled down” the ballot. 

What we’re watching: How much will the Republican candidates spend to get nominated and where will that leave the nominee in comparison to the Democratic candidate?

Assembly District 21

David Liners, former state director of WISDOM, and Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz are running in the Democratic primary to replace Joint Finance Committee member Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, who won in 2024 by 3 percentage points and is not seeking reelection. 

Liners is more progressive than Bukiewicz and is endorsed by multiple Democratic Socialist lawmakers, including gubernatorial candidate Rep. Francesca Hong, D-Madison, and Rep. Ryan Clancy, D-Milwaukee, as well as the Wisconsin Electoral Socialists. He has advocated for data center moratoriums and allowing immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses. He also says he wants to change how public schools are funded by initially freezing property taxes and using Wisconsin’s surplus budget instead.

Bukiewicz has been the Oak Creek mayor since 2017 and is endorsed by U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, as well as state lawmakers including Sen. Dora Drake, D-Milwaukee, and Rep. Christine Sinicki, D-Milwaukee. He has said he would advocate for a $20 state minimum wage, public school funding and lowering the cost of living. 

Bukiewicz leads the fundraising effort with about $62,000 cash on hand as of June 30 while Liners trails with about $12,000 in the bank.

The winner of the primary will face Republican Carroll University student Dylan Pfaffenbach, who has about $7,400 on hand, in November. 

What we’re watching: In a clash between establishment Democrats and Democratic Socialists, who wins?

Assembly District 26

Three Republicans will compete in the primary to determine who will face Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan, in the general election. Sheehan, an Assembly freshman who has raised more than $32,000 this year for his campaign, flipped the 26th District in 2024 when he unseated former state Rep. Amy Binsfield by 3 percentage points. Binsfeld had a falling out with the Sheboygan County Republican Party when she clashed on some core GOP issues.

Tyler Schneekloth, a self-employed 25-year-old from Wilson who has raised $756, said he wants to eliminate the state income tax for families making under $125,000 a year, give interest-free mortgages to families and first-time buyers and put a moratorium on data centers. 

Former Sheboygan Ald. John Belanger prioritizes affordability, growth of small businesses and government transparency in his campaign. In April he lost the city council race as an incumbent. He said he will be an independent voice for Sheboygan. He has raised $1,250.

James Brotz of Sheboygan says he wants to end Evers’ 400-year veto, end emissions testing and implement a tick eradication program. He also campaigns for election security and reduced government. He has raised no money for his campaign. 

What we’re watching: Which Republican will emerge to try and retake this Sheboygan-focused seat?

Assembly District 61

Brian Bock, Ben Brist and Lawanda Chambers will face off in the Democratic primary to determine who will challenge Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, in the general election. Donovan won in 2024 by 3 percentage points. Democrats are targeting this race to flip control of the Assembly. 

Bock, a pharmacist, was elected to the Greendale School Board in 2024 and serves as its treasurer. He said he’s running to “deliver practical, results-driven leadership” and is largely focused on improving access to affordable health care through lowering the price of prescription drugs and expanding Medicaid. He is backed by 3.14 Action, a national group dedicated to electing Democrats with STEM backgrounds to public offices. The group also supported Evers, a former science teacher, in his gubernatorial reelection campaigns. 

Brist, an Army veteran who served as a paratrooper and infantry officer, said he’s running as a candidate who understands the strain of rising prices while wages “struggle to keep up.” He is campaigning to lower property taxes by fixing the state’s funding formula for public schools, aiming to have more funds go to schools to allow them to rely less on property taxes for funding. 

Chambers is the founder and CEO of LIFE Wellness & Counseling, which provides mental health services to individuals in need. She said she will be “focused on solutions, not political drama.” Her campaign emphasizes public safety, and she plans to give first responders and law enforcement more resources to feel supported and be properly trained to do their jobs. She is endorsed by Democratic representatives Darrin Madison, Supreme Moore Omokunde and Margaret Arney. 

Brist has raised nearly $24,000. Chambers has raised more than $21,000. Donovan raised $20,000 this year, but has $70,000 cash on hand. Bock has raised $3,800.

What we’re watching: What kind of candidate will Democrats nominate in a key race for control of the Assembly? 

Assembly District 76

Five Democrats are competing in a primary to replace Rep. Francesca Hong, who ran unopposed in 2024 and is running for governor. The winner will face Republican Nina Chat in this solidly Democratic district.

Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford was elected to the Madison City Council in 2023, making her the first openly transgender woman to be on the council. She highlights her time being paid $2.33 as a food service worker, her experience with homelessness and her lack of health care for much of her life. Her campaign focuses on raising the minimum wage to $20 an hour and lowering property taxes. She has been endorsed by nearly 70 current and former elected officials, more than 60 community leaders and about a dozen political organizations. She has raised the most money in this race at $56,000.

Juliana Bennett, a swim instructor and bartender, is a member of the Madison Area Democratic Socialists of America and was previously elected to the Madison City Council. Some of her priorities include raising the minimum wage to $23 an hour, legalizing rent control and passing a tenant bill of rights. With nearly $35,000 raised for her campaign, she has been endorsed by the national Democratic Socialists of America and current Democratic Reps. Angelito Tenorio, Maureen McCarville and Margaret Arney.

Isaia Ben-Ami has been a policy director for Rep. Kalan Haywood, D-Milwaukee. He was also the chief of staff and research assistant for Rep. Shelia Stubbs, D-Madison. He prioritizes affordable housing, saying the state needs to relieve property taxes, pass a tenant bill of rights and build more housing. Ben-Ami has raised $32,000 and has been endorsed by Democratic representatives, including Haywood, Renuka Mayadev, Maureen McCarville and Priscilla Prado.

Zoe Sullivan, an audio producer and writer, said she wants to create legislation to roll back the private school voucher program to help with public school and university system funding. She has raised $13,200 for her campaign. She also said she wants to work to close prisons to decrease the population of incarcerated individuals to free up funding for the university system. 

Tony Castañeda, an artist and musician, is prioritizing keeping Immigration and Customs Enforcement out of Wisconsin and providing more funding to teachers and the public school system. He has raised $6,600.

What we’re watching: In a safe Democratic district, will voters elect another Democratic Socialist or will experience or endorsements drive the result?

As Democrats aim to retake the Wisconsin Legislature, here are the races we’re watching in the Aug. 11 primary is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.

Reading Time: < 1 minute

A 2023-25 budget provision granting a sales tax exemption to data centers was passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in July 2023. 

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau said in March that the tax break will cost the state more than $2 billion in sales tax revenue, mostly from massive data centers in Beaver Dam, Port Washington and Mount Pleasant. When the budget was approved in July 2023, hyperscale data centers were so new the fiscal bureau didn’t estimate how much an exemption would affect state tax collections.

While the high cost has drawn scrutiny, the incentive was originally designed to drive economic growth. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 38 states offer tax incentives on data centers.

Wisconsin has about 50 data centers, largely in the Milwaukee and Madison areas.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

• Wisconsin Watch: Wisconsin data center tax break to cost state more than $2 billion
• Legislative Fiscal Bureau: 2023-25 Wisconsin State Budget
• Data Center Map: Wisconsin Data Centers
• National Conference of State Legislatures: Subsidizing Servers: How States Are Competing to Attract Data Centers

Was a Wisconsin data centers tax break put in place solely by Gov. Tony Evers?  is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.