A ‘For Sale’ sign is seen on March 19 in Austin, Texas. Policymakers are watching for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Americans hand over a huge chunk of their paycheck for a roof over their heads. Policymakers are looking out for indications of what President-elect Donald Trump plans to do to ease housing costs next year after an election where voters were laser-focused on the economy.

Housing accounted for 32.9% of consumers’ spending in 2023, making it the largest share of consumer expenditures, according to the most recently available data Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that was an increase of 5.7% from 2022.

This year, many Americans still struggle to find affordable housing, whether they choose to rent or buy a home.

There’s a lot economists and housing advocates still don’t know about what to expect from a second Trump term. It’s unclear which campaign promises will find their way into administrative rules or  legislation, even with a Republican trifecta – the GOP will control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

But policy experts, researchers and economic analysts are looking at Trump’s record, his recent remarks on housing, and  Project 2025 – the conservative Heritage Foundation’s 900-page plan to overhaul the executive branch – for a glimpse of what may lie ahead.

Tariffs and the cost of building homes

Trump has spoken frequently of his proposed 60% tariff on goods from China, which he has said would create more manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Tariffs could be as high as 20% on goods from other countries.

But housing economists and other experts say that could be bad news for building more affordable housing.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company, said tariffs are one of her main concerns about the effects of a second Trump term.

“One of the biggest concerns is not just lumber [costs], but the overall cost of materials, which have been going up,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, a financial services company.

Construction material prices have risen 38.8% since February 2020, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors’ analysis of October Producer Price Index data.

Kurt Paulsen, professor of urban planning in the department of planning and landscape architecture at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, said building costs are already high from tariffs on Canadian lumber that Trump first imposed and that the Biden administration kept and increased.

“It used to be in construction that you would get a bid from a contractor or a subcontractor or supplier and it would be good for 60 days. Now, the bids are good for like five days because you don’t know where prices are going to be,” he said.

Immigration policy and its effect on construction labor

Trump tweeted on Nov. 18 that he is planning to use the declaration of a national emergency as part of his mass  deportation plan.

Besides disrupting lives, Trump’s plan  could have effects on what it costs to build housing, Hepp said.

“There is the cost of labor as well, if we do indeed have all these deportations. That’s a big, big concern,” she said. “A large share of labor in the construction industry obviously comes from immigrants. That is a huge issue for new construction and particularly new construction as it relates to affordable housing.”

Foreign-born construction workers made up 3 million of the 11.9 million people who work in the construction industry in 2023, according to the latest American Community Survey data.

Trump’s ‘not in my backyard’  rhetoric

The former president hasn’t always been clear on where he stands with zoning regulations and making way for more affordable housing in a wide variety of neighborhoods.

In a July Bloomberg interview, Trump spoke critically of zoning regulations and said that they drive up housing costs. But Trump also has a record of tending toward a “not in my backyard,” or NIMBY, approach to housing that maintained some of these zoning regulations. The Trump administration moved to roll back an Obama-era regulation that tied HUD funding to assessing and reducing housing discrimination in neighborhoods.

“He’ll talk about reducing regulations on developers, but he’ll also use this NIMBYism talking about protecting suburbs from low-income housing and you really can’t have it both ways,” said Sarah Saadian, senior vice president of public policy and field organizing at the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Paulsen said Project 2025 embraces a pushback against anti-NIMBY approaches to expand multi-family housing.

“What I read in the Project 2025 documents is a clear statement that says every local community and neighborhood should be able to choose the housing it wants to accept or not. The challenge of that is that if every community in every neighborhood can veto housing, then we just don’t get enough housing and prices go up and prices and rents go up,” he said.

A more punitive approach to homelessness 

Last year, homelessness rose to its highest level recorded since the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development began collecting this information in 2007. The ending of pandemic safety nets that gave some households better financial stability and a lack of affordable housing supply contributed to the number of unhoused people, the report explained.

Trump has been outspoken on his view that homeless people should be “off our streets.” The president-elect has also proposed putting unhoused people with mental health issues into “mental institutions.”

“There’s a movement that I think is largely reflected in Project 2025 that says, actually, cities need more coercive policy tools to enforce public order and to require that someone who’s camping take a shelter placement even if they don’t want it,” Paulsen said.

Saadian said that given the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Grants Pass v. Johnson, which makes it easier to criminalize unhoused populations for sleeping outside, she’s worried about a changing political environment where policies that prioritize stable housing over policing fall out of favor.

“I think all of that just shows a culture shift in the political dynamic here that we’re definitely worried about,” she said.

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Tents around King Park in Milwaukee. (Photo | Isiah Holmes)

Milwaukee County Supv. Shawn Rolland is calling on board supervisors to support allocating more funds to help people living unhoused. The additional $500,000 in Housing Division funding would come from an amendment to the 2025 county budget, and help unhoused residents to find stable shelter and resources. 

The call comes during  Homeless Awareness Week, which ends Nov. 2. Rolland noted that the county has relied on pandemic-era funds to help underserved residents find stable housing. “If there are insufficient Flexible Housing Pool funds, the Housing Division will not have the tools they need to help,” Rolland said in a statement. “With rent and mortgage costs up by 31% and 43% respectively, many people are facing severe housing insecurity, including some who are homeless for the first time in their lives.” Currently, unlike some other cities nationwide, Milwaukee has no “safe camping” initiatives, which designate areas where unhoused people can camp for the time being. 

Both county and nonprofit outreach teams have encountered growing numbers of people living outside who’ve never been unhoused before. Recently, that trend reached a fever pitch after local and state authorities closed Park & Ride lots due to safety concerns, stemming from the growing communities of people living in the lots. The Wisconsin Department of Transportation reported  that between July 1 and September 30 of this year, there were 275 calls for service to the lots, including for assaults, thefts and overdoses. 

The outreach group Street Angels reports that over a two year period, the number of unhoused people they serve has increased by 120%. In July, during the Republican National Convention, out-of-state police killed a man living unhoused in Milwaukee’s King Park neighborhood. The proposed amendment would carry no tax levy impact, according to county records. The amendment would specifically focus on people living unhoused who have “exigent housing needs.”

“For those recently forced to leave local park-and-ride lots, this means contemplating living in the woods, under bridges, or other precarious places,” Rolland  stated. “This situation is a tragedy, and we must act to prevent it.” The county supervisor fears that although Milwaukee has made “significant investments ‘up the funnel’ to prevent homelessness in the future,” the current framework of the 2025 budget lacks “support for those in immediate crisis.” 

Supvs. Jack Eckblad, Juan Miguel Martinez, Sky Z. Capriolo, Felesia Martin, Caronline Gomez-Tom and Priscilla E. Coggs-Jones signed on as amendment cosponsors. Recently, the county board approved $250,000 to fund a right to counsel program for tenants facing eviction, in an effort to help curb some of the housing crisis.

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Unhoused people in Milwaukee pitched tents in King Park this summer. Advocates who work with the homeless population say that a decision to close two Park & Ride lots in Milwaukee has made things more difficult for people who don't have housing,. (Isiah Holmes | Wisconsin Examiner)

Seeing people living out of their vehicles in Milwaukee’s Park & Ride lots at Holt and College Avenues wasn’t unusual for Eva Welch. As co-founder and executive director of the homeless outreach group Street Angels, she had watched for nearly a decade as the Park & Rides grew into their own unique communities. 

Welch was dismayed to hear that officials would be closing the Park & Rides. Driving the Street Angels  outreach bus packed with all manner of supplies, the team traveled throughout Milwaukee. Among their stops were four Park & Rides, where commuters park their vehicles and board public transit. Over the years, more and more people living in tents or out of their vehicles – functional or otherwise – chose to remain in the lots. 

“Holt Avenue Park & Ride has actually been a stop on our route through the entire nine, almost 10 years that we’ve been in existence,” Welch told Wisconsin Examiner. She called the lots on Holt and College avenues the “largest by far” in terms of how many unhoused Milwaukeeans lived there. “The majority of the folks there either had some kind of camper, or a vehicle, but there was still several – more than several – people between the two Park & Rides living in tents on the grounds of the Park & Rides in the grassy areas.” 

Park & Ride residents had created a modest form of shelter and community, she said. “There’s actually a group of folks that were removed from the Holt Park & Ride that are trying to move around as a group,” said Welch. “And unfortunately, it’s unsuccessful for them. Everywhere they’ve gone, they’ve been told to move within 12 hours. And they’re pretty adamant about staying together because they’ve somewhat become a family.”

That group is made up of about  15-20 people, Welch said. On Oct. 14, the Department of Transportation (DOT) announced that two Milwaukee County Park & Rides would be closed, along with another partial closure, “due to declining safety conditions.” Over a year, more than 80 people have been removed from the lots and have found housing through the county’s housing services. The press release stated that despite those efforts, more unhoused Milwaukeeans continued to find the lots. 

“We’re seeing a lot of individuals who are experiencing homelessness, sometimes, for the first time,” said Eric Collins-Dyke, deputy administrator for Milwaukee County Housing Services. Different factors also seem to be leading people to the lots. “Some of it is dealing with past trauma and the complexities that accompany that, and also we’ve seen more from an economic standpoint, individuals who work and they either lost their employment for rent, or are currently working and getting income, but aren’t making enough to afford rent.”

Collins-Dyke said this trend is spreading “pretty rapidly” and not just at the Park & Rides. “It sort of made us look at having to be more robust in the preventional space.” Generally, many of the people living in the Park & Ride lots are from the Milwaukee area. “Almost across the board, from the area,” Collins-Dyke said, adding  that more older adults are appearing unhoused in Milwaukee County. Nevertheless, age ranges in the encampments can vary from people in their early 20s up to elders in their 70s. 

DOT’s press release stressed that camping near highways or “adjacent right-of-ways” is illegal under state law. Unlike some metro regions nationwide, Milwaukee has no “safe camping” initiatives, which designate areas for unhoused people to camp.

The DOT stated that between July 1 and September 30 of this year, there were 275 calls for service to the lots, an increase of nearly 42%. Those incidents ranged from reports of assaults, theft, and overdoses. 

“Public safety is first and foremost,” WisDOT Assistant Deputy Secretary Joel Nilsestuen said. “Park & ride lots are not safe or suitable places for anyone to live. We’ve worked closely with our partners to connect individuals with available resources and relocate them to safer situations. We do not take this action lightly, but we recognize the importance of doing what’s right for the safety of the people in the park & rides, the traveling public and nearby communities.”

“We are concerned for the safety of those choosing to live in these lots, as well as for the safety of the surrounding community,” Wisconsin State Patrol Superintendent Tim Carnahan said. “The reported incidents happening inside of these encampments and nearby neighborhoods are unacceptable. We are dedicated to protecting the public, and in doing so, we must do what’s necessary to ensure everyone’s safety.”

Some wonder if these acts are actually working in the long run. Welch said that the Park & Ride residents had been sent notices warning of closures before, but authorities never followed through. “Typically what would happen is the news would pick it up, and the notices would be rescinded,” said Welch. “So for many of them, they didn’t believe that this was going to happen.” Many Park & Ride residents were on edge, said Welch. Then fences went up, police patrols came through,  and other indications it was time  to leave appeared. “It’s been quite an experience for the folks that were staying there,” said Welch. “They were having difficulties getting their stuff out, they couldn’t get back in to get their stuff once they went back out.” 

With winter coming, immediate housing and shelter space is limited. Among local officials, reactions to the Park & Ride closures were split. County Supervisors Caroline Gomez-Tom and Jack EckBlad released a joint statement saying the DOT’s response “fails to address the underlying issues contributing to homelessness in our community.” The supervisors called for affordable housing, robust tenant protections, and support for people facing housing instability. Earlier this month, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley announced $4 million in affordable housing focused on Milwaukee and Oak Creek.

On a nightly basis, Street Angels encounters around 300 people living on the street, tucked away in wooded areas, or camping in Park & Rides. In September 2022, the group was encountering 223 people living unhoused. By September of this year, the number had increased to 488, that’s a 120% increase over a two-year period. Welch told Wisconsin Examiner, “We’ve never served so many people in vehicles…We’ve seen people in really nice vehicles sometimes, where they’re choosing their car payment over their rent because they can’t afford both and still eat.” 

Outreach groups, whether attached to the county or on their own, are also struggling to keep up. Street Angels has no form of permanent funding, Welch said. “Every year what we raise is what’s getting us by the next year,” she told Wisconsin Examiner. Nevertheless, the group is adding new programs, and providing more meals ahead of the winter. 

Collins-Dyke said that the county will work with nonprofits and the city to support warming rooms and increase its own presence. “I think this year, the coordination among teams within the system will be more important than ever.”

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Members of the Milwaukee Autonomous Tenants Union (MATU) join other Milwaukee residents in a protest calling for a freeze to rents and evictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. (Photo | Isiah Holmes)

The Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors has unanimously approved $250,000 to fund the Legal Aid Society’s Right to Counsel Program. Under this program, eligible residents facing eviction proceedings will receive free legal representation. Tenants and families with young children will be prioritized in the new program. 

“There is a broad, positive, progressive coalition of stakeholders who support this program,” said Sup. Jack Eckblad, author of the amendment which will help fund the program. Calls to establish such a program have grown since 2020, when eviction filings sored to new heights during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Milwaukee County eviction filings rose by 26 that year.

An initial pilot program launched in late 2021 received  more than $3 million in funding. Under the program, tenants who arrived to eviction proceedings were more frequently represented by  lawyers, with the incidence of representation rising  from 2-3% to 6-16%. Evictions were prevented in 76% of cases, and eviction records were sealed in 72% of cases. The majority of those filings, a report evaluating the pilot program found, were made in majority Black census tracts, and 78% of the program’s clients were Black women. 

Housing advocates said that the program needed to expand to have greater impact. They also objected to input from landlords during the process of  crafting new programs to help tenants in Milwaukee. 

During the summer, outreach groups reported seeing more individuals living unhoused on the streets and  in cars. In July, after an unhoused man was killed by out-of-state police during the Republican National Convention, the outreach group Street Angels reported serving up to 300 people per night. Funding for the Right to Counsel Program comes as Wisconsin’s largest braces for  winter.

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