5 things to watch over the next year as Wisconsin’s election cycle begins

Election Day 2026 is now 365 days away. Over the next year Wisconsin voters will cast their ballots in a number of races that will set the future direction of the Badger State.
Voters will see candidates — and campaign ads — in 2026 for races from the governor’s office to the Capitol’s legislative chambers to the halls of Congress. Many of the top statewide races feature open seats, which will mean new faces in offices following next year’s elections.
There is much on the line. Will Republicans retake control of the governor’s office? Will Democrats win a majority in either chamber of the Legislature? Will the liberal majority grow on the Wisconsin Supreme Court?
Here are five election storylines Wisconsin Watch is following as the state heads into 2026.
Another Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Before next November, Wisconsin has another Supreme Court race in April.
Appeals Court judges Maria Lazar and Chris Taylor are running for the seat currently held by Justice Rebecca Bradley, who announced in August she would not run for another 10-year term on the court. While it’s still possible for other candidates to enter for February primary contests, signs point to Lazar and Taylor as the likely contestants.
The candidates are political polar opposites, even as Wisconsin’s judicial races remain “nonpartisan” in name only. Lazar is a conservative former Waukesha County Circuit Court judge, who served as an assistant attorney general during former Gov. Scott Walker’s administration and defended key policies in court, including the administration’s voter ID laws. Taylor, a former policy director for Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin, served as a Democrat in the Assembly before Democratic Gov. Tony Evers appointed her to the Dane County Circuit Court in 2020. She ran unopposed for an appellate seat in 2023.
But, unlike the 2024 and 2025 Supreme Court elections, the race between Lazar and Taylor is not for a majority on the court. That makes it less likely to draw record spending than previous years, said David Julseth, a data analyst with the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.
Still, Taylor has already raised more than $500,000 in the first half of the year, according to campaign finance reports. The financial position for Lazar, who announced her candidacy in early October, will become clearer after fundraising reports are filed in January.
Will Democrats flip the Senate? Will Republicans maintain the Assembly majority?
Republicans have controlled both the Assembly and the Senate since 2011. But while the GOP held onto majorities in both chambers in 2024, Democrats flipped 14 Senate and Assembly seats last year to further chip away at Republican control.
The party breakdown in the Legislature this session is 18-15 in the Senate and 54-45 in the Assembly.
The attention of political watchers is on the Senate where Democratic Campaign Committee communications director Will Karcz said gains in 2024 put the party in a good position to win a majority in 2026.
The Assembly poses more of a challenge. Twelve Assembly seats were won within less than 5 percentage points in 2024. Just five of those races were won by Republicans, so Democrats would have to flip those seats and maintain the seven other close contests from 2024 to win a majority next year. And those five include some of the more moderate Republican members, such as Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville.
The Senate Democratic Campaign Committee is eyeing three districts currently held by Republicans in parts of the state where portions of the new legislative maps will be tested for the first time. They include the 5th District held by Sen. Rob Hutton, R-Brookfield; the 17th District held by Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green; and the 21st District held by Sen. Van Wanggaard, R-Racine. Democrats running in those districts include Rep. Robyn Vining in the 5th, Rep. Jenna Jacobson in the 17th and Racine Transit and Mobility Director Trevor Jung in the 21st.
The party is also eyeing the 25th District seat held by Sen. Romaine Quinn, R-Birchwood, as a potentially competitive race.
Democrats would gain a majority in the Senate if the party flips two seats and holds onto District 31 held by Sen. Jeff Smith, D-Brunswick. Republican Sen. Jesse James, R-Thorp, in mid-October announced he plans to run for the District 31 seat. James moved to Thorp after his home in Altoona was drawn out of his seat in the 23rd District, but last month said he planned to “come home.”
Who will be the gubernatorial nominees?
Wisconsin’s 2026 gubernatorial election is the state’s first since 2010 without an incumbent on the ballot. Evers announced in July he would not seek a third term, opening up the field for competitive primaries ahead of the general election next November.
Neither candidate field is set at this point, but two Republicans and seven Democrats already announced gubernatorial campaigns this year. There is still a long stretch of campaigning before Wisconsin voters choose their candidates. The Marquette University Law School Poll released Oct. 29 shows a majority of registered voters haven’t heard enough about the candidates. Additionally, 70% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats have yet to decide on a primary candidate, the poll shows.
U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann make up the current Republican primary field. Tiffany is positioned as the front-runner largely due to the base of more than 700,000 residents in his congressional district, said Bill McCoshen, a lobbyist and Republican strategist who previously worked for former Gov. Tommy Thompson.
Tiffany and Schoemann are both “consistent conservatives,” and a clean primary between the two candidates could benefit Republicans further into next year, McCoshen said.
“Republicans did a lot of damage to themselves in the 2022 primary and weren’t able to put the whole house back together in time for the general,” McCoshen said. “There are a lot of Republicans who, sadly, did not vote for (2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee) Tim Michels, and we can’t have a repeat of that.”
The Democrats include Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong, former Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. leader Missy Hughes, former Madison state Rep. Brett Hulsey, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys and beer vendor Ryan Strnad.
The unanswered question for Democrats is whether former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes enters the primary contest. Some polls already indicate Barnes, who ran for U.S. Senate in 2022 and narrowly lost to Sen. Ron Johnson, would be the Democratic front-runner if he enters the race.
The Marquette poll shows none of the Democratic primary candidates has reached double-digit percentage support. Hong had the most support among Democrats at 6% with Rodriguez next at 4%.
Will there be a congressional shake-up in the 3rd District?
All eight of Wisconsin’s congressional districts are up for election in 2026, but the race to watch is the 3rd Congressional District in western Wisconsin currently held by U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden.
Van Orden was elected to the 3rd District in 2022. It had been held by former Democratic Rep. Ron Kind for 26 years before he retired. In his two terms in Congress, Van Orden, an outspoken supporter of President Donald Trump, has garnered a reputation as a polarizing political figure.
“Derrick Van Orden does not have as firm a grip on the district as incumbents do, like Bryan Steil, in their districts,” said Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “He’s a controversial figure. He’s given his opponents a lot of material that could be used against him.”
Van Orden won reelection in 2024 by less than 3 percentage points over Democrat Rebecca Cooke. The 2026 contest will most likely be a rematch between Van Orden and Cooke, a waitress who previously ran a Democratic fundraising company.
In 2024 and 2026, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put the Van Orden-Cooke race on the party’s lists of flippable House seats. National election analysis sites, such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, rate Wisconsin’s 3rd District as a toss-up.
Wisconsin voters in the Northwoods will see an open contest in the 7th Congressional District with Tiffany’s exit to run for governor. At least three Republicans have already announced campaigns in the 7th: former 3rd District candidate Jessi Ebben, Ashland attorney Paul Wassgren and Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
That seat is likely safe for Republicans. Tiffany won reelection in 2024 by 27 percentage points.
What will the voter mood be in 2026?
Signs are beginning to emerge as to what mood voters will be in as they head to the polls.
Democrats could benefit from a midterm election year, where Trump is not on the ballot and elections often favor the opposite party of the White House.
Since Trump’s inauguration in January, his administration has garnered headlines for its immigration policies, cuts to federal government agencies and the deployment of the National Guard to Democratic cities, such as Chicago. Opposition to Trump and his policies has led to mass demonstrations across the country this year.
“National politics now is largely a battle between the Trump administration and Democratic governors and attorneys general around the country,” Burden said. “So I think Trump is going to be near the center of the governor’s race.”
Inflation and the cost of living are the top issue for Wisconsin’s registered voters heading into 2026, which could also support Democratic candidates running against Republicans currently in office. The poll found 83% of Democrats, 79% of independents and 54% of Republicans are “very concerned” about inflation. The top concern for Republicans, according to the poll, is illegal immigration and border security, with 75% of Wisconsin GOP respondents saying they are “very concerned” about the issue.
“Inflation stuff is much more of a problem for the Republicans at this point because presidents tend to get blamed for that,” said Charles Franklin, the Marquette poll director. “Across all of our questions that touch on inflation, cost of living, price of groceries, those are some pretty grim numbers if you’re the incumbent party that may be held to account for it. We saw how much that damaged Biden when inflation spiked in the summer of 2022.”
Republicans, though, could benefit from increasing voter concern about property taxes. The Marquette poll shows 56% of voters say reducing property taxes is more important than funding public education — a reversal from responses to that question during the 2018 and 2022 elections that Evers won. And 57% of voters said they would be more likely to vote against a school referendum, a huge swing from just four months ago when 52% said they would support a referendum.

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