Members of the New Hampshire state House meet during session this May. Both of New Hampshire’s legislative chambers are considered among the most competitive this midterm election cycle, according to a recent analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. (Photo by Molly Rains/New Hampshire Bulletin)
Party control is up for grabs in 15 state legislative chambers across the country as Republicans are increasingly on the defensive this midterm election cycle, a new analysis found.
The nonpartisan newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics released its final analysis of state legislative races ahead of November. Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson changed projections for 10 chambers — all shifting in favor of Democrats.
“In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable year driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies,” he wrote.
Of the 15 competitive chambers this cycle, nine are currently controlled by Republicans and three are controlled by Democrats. Both of Alaska’s legislative chambers are controlled by bipartisan coalitions and the Minnesota state House is split evenly.
Jacobson said Democrats may make inroads even in states not considered competitive. In 15 chambers expected to remain in Republican control, for example, he said Democrats could chip away at majorities or break GOP supermajorities — when a party has enough votes to override a veto. Those chambers include the Georgia state Senate, the Indiana state House, the Kansas state House and both chambers in Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
In addition to winning control of the U.S. Congress, Democrats are looking to flip hundreds of state legislative seats this November following years of Republican dominance in statehouses. In addition to controlling a majority of governor’s offices, the GOP has held a majority of state legislative seats and chambers since 2010.
This year’s state legislative races are the third most competitive since 2010, according to Ballotpedia. The nonpartisan political encyclopedia measures competitiveness as the extent of choice available to voters: “More open seats, more contested primaries, and more races where both major parties field candidates mean more meaningful decisions on the ballot.”
Voters across 46 states will vote on 6,137 state legislative races next month. Of those races, 4,052 seats — 66% — are contested by both major parties. Ballotpedia found that 1,156 incumbents faced contested primaries this cycle — higher than its 16-year average.
This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Wisconsin Examiner, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
All 100 U.S. Senators backed the Child Safety Network’s (CSN) latest call for September to be proclaimed National School Bus Safety Month, marking 13 years of bipartisan support.
CSN has worked since 1989 to protect children from injury, exploitation and other safety threats, while providing families, schools and student transportation professionals with education, resources and best practices. Each September, CSN promotes National School Bus Safety Month, encouraging parents, students, educators, motorists and school bus professionals to recognize their shared responsibility in keeping children safe on and around the school bus. Through its Safe Ride campaign, it supports the school bus industry with driver training, the latest technology and resources for transportation professionals, students, parents, and communities.
According to a press release, this year marks a milestone for CSN and its partners, as Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska enters her second decade of leadership as prime sponsor of the month.
“CSN is deeply grateful for Fischer’s sustained commitment to student transportation safety and for the bipartisan support of the senators who have helped carry this effort forward over the years,” the release states.
Fischer said she’s proud to introduce School Bus Safety Month with Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, to support transportation professionals who keep students safe.
Since 2018, Peters has repeatedly been the resolution’s lead Democratic co-sponsor, helping secure unanimous Senate support for National School Bus Safety Month and advance student safety nationwide, including for families throughout his home state. Peters is preparing to retire from the Senate at the conclusion of his term. This year marks his sixth and final year as the resolution’s lead Democratic co-sponsor. Lincoln is a Republican.
Senate Resolution 944 introduced and unanimously passed on Sept. 30 says school buses are the largest form of mass transportation in the U.S. In an average year, the proclamation reads, 48 percent of students in kindergarten through grade 12 ride a school bus, and school buses travel more than 4 billion miles during the school year. With billions of student boarding and unloading events occurring each school year, safety extends far beyond the time a child spends seated aboard the bus, the press release states.
The 2026 resolution also highlights the importance of collaboration among local, state and federal authorities, institutions of higher education, school transportation professionals, safety organizations, technology providers, and other partners working to identify and advance solutions to preventable transportation-safety threats, the press release adds.
“It encourages broadcast, digital-media and social-networking industries to help disseminate public-service messaging that provides free resources to safeguard children, recognizes school bus operators and transportation professionals, and encourages motorists to drive more safely near school buses as students board and disembark,” it continues.
The release adds that the month is also an opportunity to recognize and thank school bus operators and transportation professionals. “Every school day, families place extraordinary trust in the people responsible for getting children safely to school and safely home again,” the release concludes.
“Parents need to have the peace of mind that when they drop their kids off at the bus stop, they will get to school and back home safely,” said Peters. “I’m proud to again co-lead this bipartisan resolution with Senator Fischer to designate September as National School Bus Safety Month. This resolution will promote safe driving practices and help provide advanced training for school bus professionals to keep our kids safe on their way to and from school.”
Wisconsin State Capitol (Wisconsin Examiner photo)
Billionaire Diane Hendricks recently contributed millions to help Republicans in their efforts to defend their legislative majorities, which are in jeopardy for the first time in more than 16 years.
Hendricks and the billionaire couple Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein have flooded Wisconsin’s midterm elections with money this year. According to a recent WisPolitics analysis, the three billionaires have given more than $73 million to Republican committees and candidates in 2026.
Individuals in the state of Wisconsin can only give $1,000 each to state Assembly candidates and $2,000 to individual candidates for state Senate. However, there is no limit on the amount donors can give to party committees, meaning an unlimited amount of money can be sent to and spent on behalf of candidates through the parties.
Hendricks’ contributions are part of an effort to help Republicans maintain control of both houses of the state Legislature, which they have held since 2011. They currently hold a 54-seat majority in the 99-seat state Assembly and a 17-seat majority in the 33-seat state Senate. Democratic lawmakers are looking to hold all of their current seats and pick up five additional seats in the Assembly and at least two seats in the Senate.
Sen. Patrick Testin (R-Stevens Point) told the Examiner in August that the billionaires have been strong supporters of Senate Republicans and “despite the criticism leveled against those individuals, what never gets a light shined onto it is the money that comes in from states like Illinois, New York, California, billionaires and multi-and mega-millionaires from the liberal elite who have flooded Democrat coffers for years.”
But the WisPolitics analysis found there was no comparable donor to the Democratic committees or campaigns in 2026 and no one donor has contributed as much over the past 17 years as each of the three GOP billionaires have donated in 2026 alone.
The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee reported raising $6.17 million from July 1 through Sept. 23. The majority of the funds — $5.5 million — were contributed by Hendricks.
The committee reported spending $9.5 million and having $11.16 million in the bank at the end of the fundraising period. It also provided $4.87 million in in-kind contributions to candidates across the state.
The Assembly Democratic Campaign committee reported raising $6.01 million during the same time period and spending about $3 million. The committee reported having $5 million on hand at the end of the fundraising period. Top Democratic contributors were Wendy Munger, who contributed $1 million and Lynde Uihlein, a family member of the Republican donors, who provided $250,000.
In many races, Republican candidates are not receiving large cash donations to their campaigns, but are receiving in-kind contributions of mailing, TV and online advertising.
In Assembly District 85, Rep. Pat Snyder (R-Weston) reported raising $31,870. His Democratic opponent, John Kroll, reported raising $84,294. However, Snyder outpaced Kroll in in-kind contributions receiving $642,899 from the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee and the Republican Party of Wisconsin. Kroll received $271,317 in in-kind contributions, which were contributed by the candidate, the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.
In Assembly District 88, Rep. Benjamin Franklin reported raising $20,030. His Democratic opponent, Brandy Tollefson, reported raising $53,650. However, Franklin received $675,043 in in-kind contributions, while Tollefson received less than half of that amount — $307,172 — in in-kind contributions. Franklin spent $39,411 and Tollefson spent $93,277.
The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate reported raising $2.28 million. Hendricks contributed $1.75 million of that. The committee reported spending $2.6 million and having $4.96 million on-hand at the end of the period.
The State Senate Democratic Committee reported raising $1.24 million and spending $2.03 million. It had $1.3 million in the bank at the end of the report. The top donations were $500,000 from Sarah O’Neill of New York and $225,000 from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.
In the four most closely watched state Senate races, the contributions of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate are playing a large role in the GOP campaigns, including through cash donations and in-kind contributions.
In Senate District 21, Republican candidate Jim Croft reported raising $1.1 million, but only raised $15,000 from individual donors; the majority of the $1.1 million was contributed by the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate. He spent a little more than $1 million.
Democratic candidate Trevor Jung reported raising $816,707 and spending $1.05 million. About $725,000 of his total came from the State Senate Democratic Committee.
In Senate District 5, Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) raised $79,321, more than Republican candidate Mike Roberts, who raised $34,092. Roberts received more in-kind contributions than Vining, however, totaling more than $145,000 from the Republican Party of Wisconsin and the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate.
Will Karcz, spokesperson for the State Senate Democratic Committee, said in a statement that “Wisconsin voters have shown us that their votes cannot be bought by the billionaire donors Republicans rely on to prop up their failing candidates.”
According to a July analysis of past races by Marquette Law School fellow John Johnson, money does matter in these races, but “it’s clear that money doesn’t ‘buy elections’ in any crude way. Candidates routinely win after being outspent by their opponent — a fact not limited to the Wisconsin legislature.”
Johnson wrote, “the hypothesis is that in districts where the Democrat accounts for more of the spending, that Democrat will do better relative to the performance of the Democratic candidate for governor or president in that district.”
More important than the relative amount of money each candidate has, according to Johnson, is the name at the top of the ticket in any given election.
Rep. Jenna Jacobson ran a campaign ad claiming Sen. Howard Marklein "invested thousands of dollars in Chinese corporations." (Photo of Jacobson courtesy of campaign. Photo of Marklein by Baylor Spears/Wisconsin Examiner)
Both the Democratic and Republican leaders of the Wisconsin Senate have said of their efforts to win control of the chamber that their candidates are staying focused on issues close to home. However, this week the focus of the race for the 17th Senate District turned to a country 6,000 miles away: China.
The race in Wisconsin’s 17th Senate District, a key district that will help determine control of the body, pits Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green), the incumbent in the race, against Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon), a two-term state representative. Marklein was first elected to the seat in 2014 after serving two terms in the Assembly and has served for the last two sessions as the co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee, which drafts the state budget.
The subject of China entered the race when the Jacobson campaign began running an ad last week that claimed Marklein had “invested thousands of dollars in Chinese corporations” while voting against a “measure that would have made Wisconsin buy more American made products.” The ad displays an image of Marklein’s face beside the Chinese flag.
“While Marklein was making money off of his Chinese investments, he was stealing money from American workers like me,” a man dressed as a construction worker says in the ad. “Someone who sold us out like that should never be in the state Senate.”
The ad led to Sen. Patrick Testin (R-Stevens Point), head of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate, to call a press conference to defend Marklein Tuesday. Testin called the ad “deceptive” and a “sick smear campaign.”
Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center, told the Wisconsin Examiner in an email that it’s “quite unusual for China or another other foreign country to be much of an issue in a campaign for a state legislative seat.”
Burden said the “focus on China in the 17th district is a kind of proxy for other issues,” including concerns about politicians “enriching themselves unethically because of investments” as well as worries about the construction of new data centers that some Wisconsinites see as drain on resources and harmful to the environment in addition to being related to U.S. AI developers’ competition with China.
The ad, however, is seeking to tie some of Marklein’s prior reported investments to his lack of support for a Democratic bill in 2013 that would have required state and local contracts to give preference to materials manufactured in the United States.
Wisconsin public officials and candidates are required to file a Statement of Economic Interests under state law to disclose financial relationships and prevent conflicts of interest.
According to his 2022 statement of economic interest, Marklein had over $50,000 in a WisdomTree Emerging Markets Fund as well as between $5,000 and $50,000 in investments in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Fund. According to Sofi, investing in emerging market funds means owning shares in companies from India, Brazil, South Africa and China with the latter representing a large portion of many emerging market index funds.
Marklein’s most recent statement of economic interest included no emerging market funds.
In his press conference defending Marklein, Testin appeared to think the ad was related to investments made through the Wisconsin Retirement System, saying Jacobson, and every state employee, has similar investments. (The Wisconsin Retirement System is not prohibited from making investments in businesses in China, though Republicans have proposed barring the State of Wisconsin Investment Board from doing so in the past.)
Testin said Jacobson was “trying to be tough on foreign adversaries now that it might be politically beneficial for her.”
“The truth is that Jacobson could have spent months standing up to our nation’s adversaries like China, but when she had the opportunity to support meaningful legislation that would protect Wisconsin from foreign influence, she voted no,” Testin said, referring to bills that would have restricted business with China.
“Jacobson has no backbone, only a slick eye for political gain. She’s quick to point a finger at people like Sen. Marklein when it benefits her, but when she has the chance to help Wisconsin, she’s only interested when there could be gains for her,” Testin said.
Jacobson voted against the two bills that passed the Assembly. Both were vetoed by Gov. Tony Evers. The issue has also come up in the race for governor, with Republican candidate Tom Tiffany saying he would have signed at least one of those bills as governor.
Burden said connecting politicians to China could “tarnish” their reputations. According to a Nov. 2025 Marquette Law School Poll, 65% of Americans held an unfavorable view of China and its leader, President Xi Jinping, while 19% said they had a favorable view of China.
Burden said of Jacobson’s ad that “a connection to Marklein’s potential support for Chinese businesses and government is a way for her to point out to voters without a strong partisan preference why he should be defeated.”
Will Karcz, a spokesperson for the State Senate Democratic Committee, said in a statement to the Examiner that the ad was meant to provide voters in the 17th with “the truth of Howard Marklein’s personal foreign investment history.”
“Howard has repeatedly voted against protecting Wisconsin manufacturing while cashing in on tens of thousands of dollars he invested in Chinese-owned corporations,” Karcz said. “He got rich on the backs of Wisconsin workers. Jenna Jacobson is running to make Wisconsin stronger while Howard has spent the last 10 years putting his bottom line ahead of his constituents.”
Whether the message resonates with voters is unclear.
Todd Allbaugh, a former Republican who grew up in Richland Center and formerly worked for Sen. Dale Schulz, told the Examiner in an interview that he was confused when he saw the ad about a week ago. He lives in Madison, but still has family in the district.
“I’ve seen this ad now probably somewhere around 20-ish times. It was baffling,” Allbaugh said. He said he didn’t understand what it was trying to get at until he looked it up using Claude, the AI assistant developed by Anthropic. “If you have to go to Claude to figure it out, it probably isn’t a really effective ad.”
Allbaugh acknowledged that Marklein has some advantages in the race given his status as an incumbent. Marklein won his 2022 race with 60% of the vote, though the district has changed considerably under the new maps. It now represents Iowa, Lafayette, Green, Crawford and Grant counties as well as parts of Dane County.
“I know the 17th Senate District pretty much like the back of my hand because it’s home,” Allbaugh said. “With the newly drawn maps it’s certainly become more competitive for Democrats, probably the most competitive in a very long time.”
Allbaugh said that he thinks Marklein is “scared for his political life,” as he is suddenly running in a competitive district and that can be seen in his campaign. One of Marklein’s recent ads positioned him as a bipartisan “bridge builder” and as “your man in the middle” and highlighted tax cuts that have been made while he’s been in office as well as some investments that have been made into local EMS and into the Lone Rock Bridge, which opened this year after two years of construction.
In Allbaugh’s opinion, Jacobson’s campaign should focus on local issues that Marklein has had some say over. He noted the closure of the UW-Platteville Richland Center campus and the UW-Platteville Baraboo Sauk County campus that have happened while Marklein has chaired the Joint Finance Committee as well as the struggle that public schools in the district have had.
“I think she’s a super strong candidate. She’s affable. She is enormously more likable and connects to people better than Howard Marklein, and I would if I were advising them, which I’m not, I would lean into that,” Allbaugh said. “Be authentic instead of listening to consultants with boilerplate things that they’re using in the other races. It doesn’t seem like a smart use of money when there are so many more easily understood issues that are particular to the 17th Senate District.”
Jacobson’s economic statement of interest from 2022 and 2024 does not list any emerging market funds.
Her 2024 statement lists an investment in the American Funds The New Economy Fund. According to the Capital Group website, it is mainly invested in the U.S. though it has a mix of investments abroad. About 15% of the fund is in Asia, including China.
A University of Oklahoma football coach helps players stretch during practice on Aug. 4, 2023. (Photo by Kyle Phillips/Oklahoma Voice)
WASHINGTON — With the U.S. Senate set to hold a procedural vote in the coming days on a sweeping bill to overhaul college sports, dueling press conferences Monday underscored the fierce debate over how to tackle the biggest issues plaguing that landscape.
Supporters of a bipartisan measure to set national standards for college athletes’ compensation, including the bill’s lead sponsor, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, argued it would “protect,” “save” and “preserve” college sports.
However, opponents of the bill, including Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, blasted the measure over concerns that it “essentially ensconces a system of exploitation,” and would provide “an unprecedented antitrust exemption to an industry that is violating the law every single day.”
Name, image and likeness battle
The college sports world continues to grapple with the fallout from the NCAA’s 2021 guidelines that allowed student-athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness, or NIL, as well as a patchwork of state NIL laws and gender inequity in NIL deals, among other major issues.
Earlier this year, Cruz and Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington state — the top members of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee — introduced the bill, with Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri and Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware as original cosponsors.
Cruz likened the college sports landscape to the “Wild West,” saying the bill is designed to “bring order to the chaos” and “put simple common sense rules in place so that college sports remain strong and vibrant for decades to come,” during a press conference he hosted outside the U.S. Capitol alongside Cantwell, Senate colleagues, student athletes and coaches.
Cruz called for “a big bipartisan vote on the floor of the Senate, and with that momentum to go to the House and have it go to the president’s desk.”
President Donald Trump has thrown strong support behind what he dubs a “great” bill.
Patchwork of state laws
The Senate could take a procedural vote on the bipartisan measure as early as this week, where it would need at least 60 senators to advance.
The latest version of the bill would create a national NIL standard that preempts the patchwork of state laws, provide certain antitrust protections to the NCAA, establish a five-year eligibility timeline for athletes and bar professional athletes from competing in college athletics.
The measure is notably neutral on the classification of athletes as employees.
Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy blasted the measure, saying: “What this bill does at its core is to protect a system of exploitation,” during a virtual press conference earlier Monday with college athletes, professional athlete unions and advocates. The event was hosted by the AFL-CIO.
“This bill protects the billions of dollars that coaches and sports industry executives are making over the suppression of compensation for some of the most highly valued athletes in the world,” Murphy added.
NAACP critical of bill
Derrick Johnson, president and CEO of the NAACP, also blasted the Senate bill Monday, saying “what makes this bill so inadequate, and in many ways offensive, is the overture as if it’s going to do something special for historically Black colleges and universities,” during the AFL-CIO’s press conference.
“HBCUs, they deserve direct federal investment, not a political trade-off,” Johnson said.
The NAACP in May urged pushback against GOP-led redistricting efforts in Southern states via college sports, including a boycott of public universities by athletes and supporters.
The Congressional Black Caucus, which rallied behind that call in May, has also opposed the legislation, saying in August the bill “falls short of providing Black athletes with the rights, representation, economic opportunities, and meaningful safeguards they deserve, while also failing to adequately recognize the interests of Black coaches, Black agents, HBCUs, and other professionals whose futures will be shaped by this legislation.”
The upcoming Wisconsin midterms could shift the balance of power in the state Legislature, and the August primaries will determine which candidates voters want to see on the November general election ballot.
Democrats are aiming to flip both the Assembly and Senate in hopes of securing a trifecta in the state government. The party must flip two of the four competitive Senate seats to win a majority. The Assembly is a larger challenge as Democrats must flip five seats to claim a majority for the first time in 16 years.
The 2024 election was the first election under new legislative maps, which ended a Republican gerrymander that had been in place since 2011. Democrats flipped 14 legislative seats.
Those results provide some insight for the upcoming elections. Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center, said Democrats have an advantage in the 2026 Senate races, which are the first contested since the new maps took effect. Senate terms are for four years, and the even-numbered Senate districts on the ballot in 2024 were more favorable to Republicans, yet Democrats still flipped four seats.
“This year is different because Trump is not on the ballot, the national environment is helping their party more and the odd-numbered districts — which are up this year — are just gonna be tougher for Republicans,” Burden said.
Winning the Assembly will likely be more difficult for Democrats. Burden said the Assembly has a lot of Republican incumbents and not many competitive districts. However, he pointed to the nine Republican retirements in this election cycle, including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, none of whom are running for another office.
“It looks like some Republican officeholders have realized this is going to be a tough year for them and they would prefer not to go through a difficult campaign and potentially lose their own seat and maybe lose the majority in the Assembly,” Burden said.
Three Assembly Democrats are also not seeking reelection, though all are running for higher office.
While Burden said the Assembly is “genuinely up for grabs,” he concluded Republicans still hold a slight advantage.
He also said most of the primaries themselves “are not especially consequential” because most incumbents are not facing primary challengers and contested primaries tend to be in districts that heavily favor a specific party with no chance of flipping. Still, he said these elections remain important because they often determine the eventual winner in these safe Democratic or Republican districts.
Here are some primaries that we’re watching:
Senate District 1
Four Republicans face off to replace Sen. André Jacque, R-New Franken, after his two terms in the Senate.
The candidates all campaign on similar issues: affordability, defending constitutional freedoms and supporting agriculture and veterans. But there are some differences.
Current Jacque staffer Nic Cravillion puts protecting the state’s outdoor spaces as a priority. His campaign emphasizes Wisconsin’s hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities, and he says he will support public access and conservation efforts.
Katie Baney, a director at Delta Defense, prides herself as the only mother in the race. She also highlights her support for school choice and the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ movement, popularized by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Barbara Bittner, a farmer from Stockbridge, chairs the Republican Party of Calumet County. She emphasizes what she describes as traditional family values and defending the sanctity of life. But she also supports the Knowles-Nelson Stewardship Program, largely seen as a more Democratic issue after the Republican-controlled Legislature removed funding for the land conservation program from the 2025-27 state budget and it expired last month.
While each candidate campaigns on veteran support, Jacob VandenPlas, a Sturgeon Bay farmer, marks veteran mental health as one of his key campaign issues. As a veteran who experienced brain trauma and PTSD himself, he founded a program to aid veterans’ recovery and suicide prevention, using farming as a form of therapy.
Cravillion leads in fundraising for this race having collected more than $75,000 since January. Baney raised about $47,000, Bittner raised about $17,000, and VandenPlas raised $1,900.
The winner of the Republican primary will face independent Mark Becker, the former chair of the Republican Party of Brown County.
What we’re watching: What will this primary tell us about how Republican voters feel about the future of state land conservation efforts?
Senate District 17
Three Democrats are looking to unseat three-term Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee.
Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, who has served in the Assembly since 2022, has received the State Senate Democratic Committee’s endorsement. She serves on the Assembly’s agriculture committee and has authored numerous bills on farming, one of her top campaign issues. She had about $200,000 on hand as of June 30, compared to Marklein’s $1 million.
Corrine Hendrickson, a child care consultant and former New Glarus School Board member, is advocating for increased public school funding and affordable child care. Hendrickson had about $12,000 on hand.
Lisa White, a small business owner, holds similar policy stances as both Jacobson and Hendrickson. Her campaign emphasizes changing the public school funding system, particularly how heavy funding relies on property taxes. She also says she is a strong advocate for rural health care, conservation and small businesses. White was down to about $800 on hand as of June 30.
What we’re watching: Will the preferred Democratic candidate win the primary as Democrats look to flip a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024?
Senate District 25
Former state Reps. Erik Severson and Angie Sapik will face off in the Republican primary to determine who will replace Sen. Romaine Quinn, who is running in the redrawn 23rd Senate District. The winner faces Democratic Bayfield County Board member Charly Ray in the November election. Democrats are targeting this district to flip the Senate.
Severson, a family medical doctor, served in the Assembly from 2011 to 2015. He describes himself as a strong pro-life, pro-family advocate, and his campaign emphasizes using his medical background to help improve health care in Wisconsin. He is endorsed by Pro-Life Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Family Action PAC, an advocacy group for conservative family values.
Sapik serves on the Douglas County Board and served in the Assembly from 2023 to 2025. She supports the Second Amendment and says less government involvement will give Wisconsinites “more autonomy.” She also wants to lower taxes and repeal a provision Gov. Tony Evers created in state law that increases funding limits for public schools every year for the next 400 years. Sapik has been endorsed by 10 current Republican state representatives, Sen. Cory Tomczyk and a handful of former state representatives.
Burden pointed to this district as an interesting primary to keep an eye on.
“You’ve got a Republican primary with two candidates who are duking it out to be the nominee there, but also a very credible Democratic candidate who has no primary opposition,” Burden said. “It’s possible the Republicans will sort of go at one another during the primary, and the Democrat will continue to raise money and build his campaign to get ready for whoever he faces.”
Ray has raised about $119,000. Sapik trails close behind having raised about $117,000. Severson raised about $39,000 in the first half of the year.
Burden pointed to how the area, which is in U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s 7th Congressional District, has gotten more Republican under President Donald Trump. However, he said it’s likely to be a competitive race in November. He added that if Democrats win this district, it could indicate that they’re doing well at “the top of the ticket” and the success has “trickled down” the ballot.
What we’re watching: How much will the Republican candidates spend to get nominated and where will that leave the nominee in comparison to the Democratic candidate?
Assembly District 21
David Liners, former state director of WISDOM, and Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz are running in the Democratic primary to replace Joint Finance Committee member Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, who won in 2024 by 3 percentage points and is not seeking reelection.
Liners is more progressive than Bukiewicz and is endorsed by multiple Democratic Socialist lawmakers, including gubernatorial candidate Rep. Francesca Hong, D-Madison, and Rep. Ryan Clancy, D-Milwaukee, as well as the Wisconsin Electoral Socialists. He has advocated for data center moratoriums and allowing immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses. He also says he wants to change how public schools are funded by initially freezing property taxes and using Wisconsin’s surplus budget instead.
Bukiewicz has been the Oak Creek mayor since 2017 and is endorsed by U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, as well as state lawmakers including Sen. Dora Drake, D-Milwaukee, and Rep. Christine Sinicki, D-Milwaukee. He has said he would advocate for a $20 state minimum wage, public school funding and lowering the cost of living.
Bukiewicz leads the fundraising effort with about $62,000 cash on hand as of June 30 while Liners trails with about $12,000 in the bank.
The winner of the primary will face Republican Carroll University student Dylan Pfaffenbach, who has about $7,400 on hand, in November.
What we’re watching: In a clash between establishment Democrats and Democratic Socialists, who wins?
Assembly District 26
Three Republicans will compete in the primary to determine who will face Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan, in the general election. Sheehan, an Assembly freshman who has raised more than $32,000 this year for his campaign, flipped the 26th District in 2024 when he unseated former state Rep. Amy Binsfield by 3 percentage points. Binsfeld had a falling out with the Sheboygan County Republican Party when she clashed on some core GOP issues.
Tyler Schneekloth, a self-employed 25-year-old from Wilson who has raised $756, said he wants to eliminate the state income tax for families making under $125,000 a year, give interest-free mortgages to families and first-time buyers and put a moratorium on data centers.
Former Sheboygan Ald. John Belanger prioritizes affordability, growth of small businesses and government transparency in his campaign. In April he lost the city council race as an incumbent. He said he will be an independent voice for Sheboygan. He has raised $1,250.
James Brotz of Sheboygan says he wants to end Evers’ 400-year veto, end emissions testing and implement a tick eradication program. He also campaigns for election security and reduced government. He has raised no money for his campaign.
What we’re watching: Which Republican will emerge to try and retake this Sheboygan-focused seat?
Assembly District 61
Brian Bock, Ben Brist and Lawanda Chambers will face off in the Democratic primary to determine who will challenge Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, in the general election. Donovan won in 2024 by 3 percentage points. Democrats are targeting this race to flip control of the Assembly.
Bock, a pharmacist, was elected to the Greendale School Board in 2024 and serves as its treasurer. He said he’s running to “deliver practical, results-driven leadership” and is largely focused on improving access to affordable health care through lowering the price of prescription drugs and expanding Medicaid. He is backed by 3.14 Action, a national group dedicated to electing Democrats with STEM backgrounds to public offices. The group also supported Evers, a former science teacher, in his gubernatorial reelection campaigns.
Brist, an Army veteran who served as a paratrooper and infantry officer, said he’s running as a candidate who understands the strain of rising prices while wages “struggle to keep up.” He is campaigning to lower property taxes by fixing the state’s funding formula for public schools, aiming to have more funds go to schools to allow them to rely less on property taxes for funding.
Chambers is the founder and CEO of LIFE Wellness & Counseling, which provides mental health services to individuals in need. She said she will be “focused on solutions, not political drama.” Her campaign emphasizes public safety, and she plans to give first responders and law enforcement more resources to feel supported and be properly trained to do their jobs. She is endorsed by Democratic representatives Darrin Madison, Supreme Moore Omokunde and Margaret Arney.
Brist has raised nearly $24,000. Chambers has raised more than $21,000. Donovan raised $20,000 this year, but has $70,000 cash on hand. Bock has raised $3,800.
What we’re watching: What kind of candidate will Democrats nominate in a key race for control of the Assembly?
Assembly District 76
Five Democrats are competing in a primary to replace Rep. Francesca Hong, who ran unopposed in 2024 and is running for governor. The winner will face Republican Nina Chat in this solidly Democratic district.
Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford was elected to the Madison City Council in 2023, making her the first openly transgender woman to be on the council. She highlights her time being paid $2.33 as a food service worker, her experience with homelessness and her lack of health care for much of her life. Her campaign focuses on raising the minimum wage to $20 an hour and lowering property taxes. She has been endorsed by nearly 70 current and former elected officials, more than 60 community leaders and about a dozen political organizations. She has raised the most money in this race at $56,000.
Juliana Bennett, a swim instructor and bartender, is a member of the Madison Area Democratic Socialists of America and was previously elected to the Madison City Council. Some of her priorities include raising the minimum wage to $23 an hour, legalizing rent control and passing a tenant bill of rights. With nearly $35,000 raised for her campaign, she has been endorsed by the national Democratic Socialists of America and current Democratic Reps. Angelito Tenorio, Maureen McCarville and Margaret Arney.
Isaia Ben-Ami has been a policy director for Rep. Kalan Haywood, D-Milwaukee. He was also the chief of staff and research assistant for Rep. Shelia Stubbs, D-Madison. He prioritizes affordable housing, saying the state needs to relieve property taxes, pass a tenant bill of rights and build more housing. Ben-Ami has raised $32,000 and has been endorsed by Democratic representatives, including Haywood, Renuka Mayadev, Maureen McCarville and Priscilla Prado.
Zoe Sullivan, an audio producer and writer, said she wants to create legislation to roll back the private school voucher program to help with public school and university system funding. She has raised $13,200 for her campaign. She also said she wants to work to close prisons to decrease the population of incarcerated individuals to free up funding for the university system.
Tony Castañeda, an artist and musician, is prioritizing keeping Immigration and Customs Enforcement out of Wisconsin and providing more funding to teachers and the public school system. He has raised $6,600.
What we’re watching: In a safe Democratic district, will voters elect another Democratic Socialist or will experience or endorsements drive the result?
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